Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

The Hammer Betting Network
  • 4.8 (505)
  • Fantasy Sports
  • Updated Semiweekly

Welcome to Circles Off. This is your source for educational sports betting content powered by The Hammer Betting Network. This channel looks to provide you with the highest quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. On this feed, we house the Circles Off flagship podcast hosted by Rob Pizzola as well as the Circle Back show which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter. Follow this feed to keep up to date with all of the great content and go to The Hammer website for all of your sports betting content needs: https://thehammer.bet/

  1. 1d ago

    Deshaun Watson named STARTER for the Cleveland Browns + More! | Circle Back | Presented By ProphetX

    Browns recap covering Deshaun Watson's postgame comments after getting booed plus the Sanders update, and Dae'Quan Wright's stunning exit from the NFL back to LSU; Ashton Jeanty's injury scare and what it means for fantasy owners; Scottie Scheffler playing through hand, foot & mouth disease at the BMW Championship and whether golf needs injury reporting; Establish The Run shutting down their pick-selling service; a separate wild stat showing MLB favorites went 15-0 in a day; the Raheem Palmer/Pam Moldanado interaction; plus Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: / discord ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - / circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - / circlesoffhq FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 / @thehammerhq 🏈 / @fwdprogresshq 📚 / @hitthebookshq SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro To Circle Back01:30 – Browns Recap: Watson's Postgame Comments & Sanders Update15:50 – Dae'Quan Wright Leaves NFL for LSU23:37 – Ashton Jeanty Injury Update32:47 – Scottie Scheffler's Hand, Foot & Mouth Diagnosis33:30 – Does Golf Need Injury Reporting?48:20 – Establish The Run Shuts Down Pick Service1:04:47 – MLB Favorites Go 15-01:11:11 – Raheem Palmer / Pam Moldanado Interaction1:24:20 - BIG CHANGES HAPPENING!1:29:02 – Chopping Block1:58:04 – Outro / Q&A Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #Browns #DeshaunWatson #ShedeurSanders #ClevelandBrowns #NFL #NCAAFootball #AshtonJeanty #FantasyFootball #Raiders #ScottieScheffler #BMWChampionship #PGATour #EstablishTheRun #SportsBetting #ChoppingBlock #NFLNews Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  2. 5d ago

    Sharp Bettors Are Starting To Call Them Out... Is It Fair? | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX

    Prediction markets are having a moment of reckoning. Sharp bettors are starting to call out PM platforms for the same behavior that made traditional sportsbooks notorious: squeezing out the very winners who helped legitimize the space in the first place. From new maker fees quietly eating into sharp profits to a "pro gambler arc" meme capturing the entire cycle of boom, backlash, and burnout, this week's Circle Back digs into whether prediction markets are already repeating the mistakes of the sportsbooks they were supposed to replace. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined live by Joey Knish, Thon Misser, and Peanut to break down the fee structures, the hypocrisy accusations flying between market makers and sharp takers, and what it all means for anyone trying to get a long-term edge in this new market. Presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Knish - https://x.com/JoeyKnish22 🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor 🔵 Follow Thon - https://x.com/ThonMisser OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Peanut, & Joey Knish 1:31 - Was Kalish Right All Along? 9:56 - Market Makers vs. Sharp Takers 17:38 - The Pro Gambler Arc 23:41 - +EV Move Of The Week 31:19 - NFL Adopting The March Madness Schedule 36:50 - The Wrong One To Receive An Affiliate Badge 44:16 - Announcement 46:57 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CircleBack #ProphetX #SharpBettors #SportsBettingPodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Sharp Bettors Are Starting To Call Them Out... Is It Fair? | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX

  3. 6d ago

    MIT Students Paid $43 to Avoid Free Money (Millions Think That's Smart) | Presented by ProphetX

    A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it. In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at life changing stakes and completely irrational at dinner money stakes, and why the $43 students were willing to pay to walk away from the bet is the most damning detail in the entire story. Then Rob shows the fix: what happens to that exact same flip once you take it 100 times, then 1,000 times, and why repetition (not bravery) is the actual engine behind every profitable sports bettor, market maker, and insurance company that has ever existed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Viral Flip 1:07 - The Full Story (and the $43) 2:10 - The Part That's Actually True 3:17 - Where It All Falls Apart 4:15 - Paying a Tax on Your Own Fear 5:11 - One Flip vs One Hundred 6:44 - The Dividing Line 8:39 - Sponsored by ProphetX 9:46 - Which Situation Are You In? 10:53 - Circle Back, Mondays 1PM EST Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ExpectedValue #RiskAversion #BehavioralEconomics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    MIT Students Paid $43 to Avoid Free Money (Millions Think That's Smart) | Presented by ProphetX

  4. Aug 17

    The Secret Edge in NFL Preseason Betting | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX

    NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering games as the real driver behind the movement. Also on deck: reactions to Pat McAfee's surprise album release, plus the fallout from Circa CEO Derek Stevens' pointed comments questioning the legitimacy and tax structure of peer-to-peer prediction markets. Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:18 - NFL Preseason CLV debate 16:35 - Pat McAfee dropped an album 35:19 - Breaking News on Kawhi Leonard 42:12 - Derek Stevens sounds off on prediction markets 52:29 - Gen Z is moving from stocks to sports betting 1:03:11 - CFTC probe into "mention markets" 1:11:17 - Hypotheticals 1:30:16 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CLV #NFLBetting #ClosingLineValue #SportsBetting #NFLPreseason #CircleBack #CirclesOff #ProphetX #PatMcAfee #DerekStevens #PredictionMarkets #TheHammer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    The Secret Edge in NFL Preseason Betting | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX

  5. Aug 14

    The Supreme Court Case That Could Change Prediction Markets Forever | Presented by ProphetX

    Prediction markets and sportsbooks might look identical on the surface. Same lines, same moneylines, same spreads. But legally and structurally, they're nothing alike. In this conversation, Jacob sits down with Captain Jack Andrews to break down why prediction markets don't meet the legal definition of gambling the way sportsbooks do, walking through the "chance, consideration, and reward" test, the Wire Act's business-of-betting standard, and why the operator side, not the consumer side, is what actually matters. They also dig into the "Duck Test," the case that could eventually land in front of the Supreme Court, and why the outcome could determine whether prediction markets are regulated state by state or protected under federal preemption. If you've ever wondered whether prediction markets are just sportsbooks in disguise, this is the conversation that settles it. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Jack - https://x.com/capjack2000 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 00:00 – Prediction Markets Are Not Sportsbooks 01:18 – The 3 Components Of Gambling 04:38 – The Business Of Betting & The Duck Test 06:29 – ProphetX 07:29 – Same Bet, Different Mechanics 08:59 – The Real Goal: Getting to the Supreme Court 11:45 – The Sports Traders Union 13:02 – Fundamental Fairness Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #Sportsbooks #CFTC #SportsTradingUnion #BettingRegulation #CirclesOff #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    The Supreme Court Case That Could Change Prediction Markets Forever | Presented by ProphetX

  6. Aug 12

    1,100 Followers. 35,000+ Posts. Meet Rishi Bets. | Presented by ProphetX

    Rishi Bets has been posting on X since 2011 with over 35,000 posts and a following nowhere near what that volume would suggest, and it's exactly why the account works. He posts his bet sizes, his wins, and his losses in real time, no cherry-picking. Rob Pizzola sits down with Rishi for a full interview covering his case for prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks, the World Cup position that went horribly wrong and the choice to post the whole thing publicly, where the line should be on which markets can and can't exist, and a run of hot takes on the sports betting community that don't pull punches. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Rishi - https://x.com/Rishibets OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro 1:13 - Who is Rishi? 11:24 - How he actually bets 29:37 - The case for prediction markets 58:13 - The Mbappé mistake 1:12:11 - First big loss 1:17:30 - On being stubborn 1:25:43 - Rapid round: things that trigger Rishi 1:34:00 - Sharp vs recreational, the bigger picture 1:40:07 - +EV and -EV moves of the week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RishiBets #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #WorldCupBetting #SharpBettor #SportsBettingPodcast #BettingCommunity Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    1,100 Followers. 35,000+ Posts. Meet Rishi Bets. | Presented by ProphetX

  7. Aug 10

    Bet Bash 2026: Steve Fezzik's Seminar, Dunk Tank & More | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX

    Rob and Jacob were on the ground at Bet Bash 2026 (August 4-7), and they're bringing back the biggest storylines from the event, including the fallout from Steve Fezzik's touting ethics seminar. Geoff missed the trip, and shares his perspective from watching it all unfold from home. The crew also dives into the latest out of the WNBA, from a player's claims of white privilege in the league to Enes Freedom and Royce White declaring for the WNBA. Plus, sportsbooks are taking an increasingly clear stance against prediction markets, and the guys break down whether it's coming from a place of genuine concern or fear of the competition. Join host Jacob Gramegna alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg on this episode of Circle Back, presented by ProphetX. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 3:49 - BetBash Reviews & Thoughts 13:35 - BetBash Dunk Tank 24:55 - The Ethics Of Touting Seminar 35:51 - Billy Walters on PMs 44:38 - BetBash Representation 55:26 - WNBA State of Affairs 1:23:09 - Sportsbooks Challenge The Idea Of Prediction Markets 1:29:31 - Get Better, Bet Fewer Games? 1:37:40 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #BetBash2026 #CircleBack #SportsBetting #WNBA #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #SportsBettingPodcast #GamblingTwitter #TheHammer #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Bet Bash 2026: Steve Fezzik's Seminar, Dunk Tank & More | Circle Back | Presented by ProphetX

  8. Aug 5

    You Project 80, the Line Is 72.5... You Might Have Nothing | Presented by ProphetX

    You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all. Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use, then building layer by layer into how the market actually prices probability, why your model's mean and the market's median aren't the same thing, and why that gap is the single most common way a good projection turns into a bad bet. By the end, you'll be able to price any prop, and every alternate line on the board, from nothing but a projection and a little bit of math. This is Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. ⬇️ Download the Excel file: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j2dlXlL1fgN4rLoI1Q_mTEFpwpnXvr0f/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=110512856455811077194&rtpof=true&sd=true INSTRUCTIONS: Once the file is open, in the top left go to File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔴 Don't Use AI For Sports Betting Until You Watch This: https://youtu.be/ykICNBiFubg 🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Question Everyone Gets Wrong 1:42 - A Projection Is Not A Probability 3:30 - LAYER 1: The Two (Eight*) Minute Version 11:22 - LAYER 2: What The Market Actually Thinks 14:52 - Sponsored by ProphetX 16:41 - LAYER 2: The Player's Real Spread 19:15 - Volume vs Efficiency 23:20 - LAYER 3: The Thing That Flips Bets 29:10 - Which Props This Applies To 30:59 - Pricing Every Alternate Line 33:01 - The Honest Caveat Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #NFLProps #PropBetting #BettingEducation #SharpBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #NFLBetting Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    You Project 80, the Line Is 72.5... You Might Have Nothing | Presented by ProphetX
See All (437)

4.8
out of 5
505 Ratings

About

Welcome to Circles Off. This is your source for educational sports betting content powered by The Hammer Betting Network. This channel looks to provide you with the highest quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. On this feed, we house the Circles Off flagship podcast hosted by Rob Pizzola as well as the Circle Back show which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter. Follow this feed to keep up to date with all of the great content and go to The Hammer website for all of your sports betting content needs: https://thehammer.bet/

Information

  • Creator
    The Hammer Betting Network
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    437
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2025 Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcast
  • Show Website
    Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

You Might Also Like