Every year around this time I find myself doing the same thing - looking back over the season and trying to make some sense of it before the next one starts. A big part of this, and something I keep trying to increase our structure around, is sitting down with clients and going over everything that worked (and didn’t) last season. As part of this review process, we decided to get a couple of us together and think back through the year. This episode is our 2026 season retrospective. Addison, Mindy and I sat down to talk through what actually happened this year: the climate, lake levels, the impact of smoke (of course), a market splitting in two, and what all of it might mean heading into 2027. It’s long, it’s raw, and it’s tagged Explicit (Addison has opinions about forest management). A Season of Two Halves Up until August 7th this was shaping up to be one of the better years we’ve had in a while. Mildew and leafhopper pressure were down, the spring was steady and the fruit looked great. Then the Bald Range fire started west of Summerland and, well, you know the rest. Our thoughts are still with everyone in Summerland who lost so much. It was also very cool to see how much people came together. What surprised me going back through the PM2.5 data is that the smoke didn’t start with that fire. We were seeing it drift up from the US by mid-July, and between July 23 and August 28 there were 31 days with at least one reading at Unhealthy or worse. Summerland hit 1,105 on the US EPA’s air quality index (a scale that officially stops at 500). And smoke wasn’t the only story. Okanagan Lake is sitting at a historic low, Kalamalka dead-pooled this summer, and NOAA puts the odds of a strong El Niño this winter above 80%. You’ll hear Mindy get into what that likely means for heat, snowpack and water next year and why a mild winter forecast isn’t the same as a safe one (January 2024’s freeze came in an El Niño winter too). We also get into the market, and why the wineries obsessed with quality are the ones still investing (which is something we see in our own business). More on that in It’s Time to Ride the Wolf. Now, the Uncomfortable Bit I want to be upfront about something: there’s a lot we don’t know about smoke. We don’t have a threshold. A PM2.5 number tells you there was smoke in the air, not what ended up in the berry. Wes Zandberg’s lab has even been challenging the accepted model of how smoke gets into wine in the first place. That’s exactly why we’re part of the smoke study this year, to move from “there was smoke” to understanding how much, what the grapes did with it, and whether we can predict that from sensors. So I hold our take loosely. We could be wrong. But here’s the thing I keep coming back to. We’re hearing from smart people, good winemakers, experienced growers, that they don’t think their berries were badly affected. To us, that seems insane. The smoke sat in the valley for weeks. Ash was falling on cars. Everyone we’ve talked to who has tested has come back high. I don’t know how, if you farm in the Okanagan, you could have escaped it. Maybe they know something we don’t. Maybe there are sites, varieties or timings that came through better than the data suggests (if that exists…). If so, that would be fascinating and I want to see it. Disagree away, and send me your numbers if you do! But until someone shows me otherwise, I think the safer bet is to assume you were exposed and plan that way: in the cellar, in your marketing and in your business plan. That doesn’t mean telling the world the 2026 vintage is garbage. We need to turn this into something, and you can tell because some of the wineries that skipped wine in 2021 are making wine this year. Also, those that overproduced last year are sitting in a good position. What you say to consumers and what you plan for internally are two very different conversations. A Few Things Worth Doing Now * Get your frozen samples into the smoke study. At least 500 g per block, labelled with date, variety, location and intended use, then register your samples here. This is how we stop arguing from conviction (ours included). * Plan for a dry year. The Okanagan Basin Water Board is already warning about 2027. And check how deep your water is actually going - on the soil probes we had out this spring, not one irrigation set got below 60 cm. Most stopped around 40. * If you’re not sure where your blocks landed, get in touch. chris@vintality.com Chapters, corrections and sources are below. If this was useful, forward it to a grower or winemaker who’d get something out of it. And if you think we’re wrong about smoke, I’d love to hear it. Next episode: Meet the Team, the newest people at Vintality and one idea each brings from their past field to your vineyard. Show notes With * Addison Palmer, Viticulture Lead, Vintality * Mindy Mohammed, Lead, Crop & Climate Modelling, Vintality * Host: Christopher Mark, President, Vintality Chapters * 00:00 Cold open: “It’s gonna be hotter” * 00:13 Intro * 00:52 This episode is sponsored by Vintality * 01:11 A great season, then the smoke * 03:01 What the PM2.5 data shows: almost nobody escaped it * 04:48 Tasting smoke taint, MIPs and the cost of dropping fruit * 06:25 Two ways to attack it: the vineyard and the cellar * 07:35 Heads in the sand vs honest messaging * 09:10 “It’s gonna be hotter”: next year’s heat and fire * 11:43 El Niño years, GDD, Huglin and BEDD * 15:12 Freeze risk this winter * 17:18 A drier watershed and a lake at a historic low * 20:06 Agriculture’s water and the over-irrigation problem * 22:22 Mark Matthews and the one lever that works * 24:25 Shallow irrigation, shallow roots * 26:05 Plants are better at finding water than we think * 27:12 Mindy on watershed management and modelling * 30:37 The right technology in the right spot * 32:00 Riding the wolf: a market splitting in two * 34:11 Addison: who gets pushed over the ropes * 36:59 What could we have done differently? (Plus the BC smoke study) * 38:33 Mindy: wildfire mapping * 39:17 Addison: forest management * 40:32 Chris: the water-stress spike when the smoke lifts * 41:37 Outro Recorded October 9, 2026. Explicit. Corrections and notes We record these conversations raw and fix the facts here, not in the edit. Times match the chapters above. * 05:29 and 08:46, “MIPS”: these are molecularly imprinted polymers, a cellar treatment that strips smoke-derived volatile phenols from wine (University of Adelaide). * 08:56, “Bordeaux got smoked by fire this year too”: a fire of about 42,000 ha near Saumos, west of Bordeaux, started July 22. In August, the Union des Grands Crus de Bordeaux reported no vineyards affected and no impact on grape quality observed (Falstaff). Heat and drought were the bigger Bordeaux story. * 15:59, was 2023–24 El Niño or La Niña? El Niño, as Chris says at 16:40. So January 2024’s freeze came in an El Niño winter, and a mild winter forecast doesn’t rule one out. NOAA’s October 8 update has an El Niño Advisory, Niño-3.4 at +2.1 °C, and a strong to very strong El Niño likely through January–March 2027 (more than 83% chance) (NOAA CPC). * 17:48, Grand Forks had its water shut off this summer: we couldn’t confirm this before publishing. The 2026 curtailment we could document was on Bessette Creek near Lumby: 131 licences, ordered August 28 (Grand Forks Gazette). * 18:25, Okanagan Lake at a historic low: confirmed. The OBWB reported Okanagan Lake at a historic low for the time of year, and Kalamalka Lake dead-pooled this summer (Castanet). As of October 8, both lakes were still at record lows (Vernon Matters). * 18:37, Penticton 42%, Kelowna 47%, Vernon 60% of normal precipitation: we couldn’t find these figures in the OBWB drought bulletins or press coverage, so treat them as approximate. [Replace with the source if Addison has one.] * 20:10, “99%” of the valley’s water: in the OBWB’s Water Supply & Demand Study, agriculture is about 55% of all water use in the basin. All outdoor irrigation (farms, lawns, golf courses, parks) is about 86% (OBWB key findings). * 22:22, Mark A. Matthews: the book is Terroir and Oth… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit winesandvines.substack.com
