Eurizon SLJ Capital

Eurizon SLJ Capital
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  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Providing first-hand emerging and developed market insights with a global context of how the world views these markets.

  1. 3d ago

    Energy, Inflation and a Crucial Week for Global Central Banks

    Energy prices are reshaping the global inflation and interest-rate outlook, with oil and natural gas feeding through to bond markets and central-bank expectations. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the week ahead, beginning in the UK, where July GDP surprised to the upside. Neil remains cautious about extrapolating the rebound, however, as renewed rises in oil and, importantly for Europe, natural gas tighten financial conditions and contribute to higher gilt yields. Attention turns to UK employment, inflation and retail sales, alongside a Bank of England meeting that is expected to leave rates unchanged, with November increasingly in focus. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with Christine Lagarde highlighting downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation. Markets are now pricing further tightening, while next week also brings a closely watched Bank of Japan meeting, China data, inflation releases from India and Poland, and a Brazilian policy decision. In the US, renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices have contributed to a sharp rise in Treasury yields and wider pressure across global bond markets. The US inflation print will be critical for the Federal Reserve outlook, while still-low volatility across equities, credit and FX leaves Neil focused on the potential value of long-volatility strategies. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:27 UK growth and Bank of England outlook 02:38 ECB takeaways and the global policy outlook 04:37 US inflation, the Fed and bond-market risks 06:41 Weekend sports roundup 07:30 Closing and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

    Energy, Inflation and a Crucial Week for Global Central Banks

  2. Sep 4

    Global Yields, UK Fiscal Risk and the Fed Outlook

    Global yield curves remain at the centre of the macro debate as markets weigh higher energy prices, fiscal pressures and the outlook for central bank policy. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss recent bond-market selling, the ECB’s expected 25bp rate hike to 2.5%, and the growing interaction between fiscal policy, inflation and tighter financial conditions across the Eurozone. In the UK, attention turns to fiscal credibility ahead of the Budget and the Bank of England’s next policy update, with the economy still appearing too weak to support further rate hikes. They also look at the outlook for the yen and Bank of Japan policy, rising inflation risks in Australia, and a busy global calendar of inflation data and central bank meetings. In the US, payrolls, inflation and debt sustainability remain central to the outlook. With markets reassessing the path for Federal Reserve policy, next week’s CPI release could prove important for rate expectations, financial conditions and the broader growth outlook. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:29 Bond sell-off and ECB outlook 02:24 UK fiscal risks and Bank of England watch 03:35 Japan, Australia and global data 04:24 US growth, inflation and Fed path 06:34 Weekend sports watchlist 07:35 Long and short picks 08:09 Wrap-up and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

    Global Yields, UK Fiscal Risk and the Fed Outlook

  3. Aug 28

    Payrolls, UK Fiscal Uncertainty and the Global Policy Outlook

    US payrolls take centre stage as markets turn from Federal Reserve policy back to the data, while UK fiscal uncertainty and global inflation developments shape the wider macro outlook. Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent employment and retail sales data remain weak, while underlying services and wage pressures are moderating despite elevated headline inflation. The monetary policy implications remain neutral to dovish, but the fiscal outlook is less certain as Prime Minister Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions. Eurizon SLJ Capital remains cautious on the UK macro outlook into September and beyond. Globally, attention turns to Australian inflation projections, an expected 25-basis-point RBNZ rate increase, Japanese retail sales and industrial production, and China’s August PMI data. In the Eurozone, August flash inflation arrives ahead of the ECB’s September meeting, while natural gas prices could prove increasingly important for the monetary policy path beyond September. In the US, the focus shifts decisively back to the economic data following the latest policy update from Fed Chair Warsh. JOLTS, ISM manufacturing and services, ADP payrolls, the Federal Reserve Beige Book and the trade balance all lead into Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, with the labour market a key input into the Fed reaction function and the US yield curve. Neil also looks ahead to the long bank holiday weekend, including rugby, cricket, Premier League football, Notting Hill Carnival and Reading Festival. Chapters 00:00 Show intro 00:29 September watchlist: UK 00:42 UK data and monetary policy 01:19 UK politics and fiscal uncertainty 01:58 Global data roundup 02:53 Eurozone inflation and the ECB 03:45 US payrolls week 04:52 US data calendar 05:36 Long weekend sport 06:33 Festival banter and wrap-up 07:15 Closing and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

    Payrolls, UK Fiscal Uncertainty and the Global Policy Outlook

  4. Aug 21

    UK Fiscal Risks, Global Yields and the Fed at Jackson Hole

    Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop shaped by UK fiscal uncertainty, renewed inflation concerns, rising long-end bond yields and the policy signals investors will be watching at Jackson Hole. In the UK, a higher inflation print was driven by energy price-cap changes, while services and labour cost growth continued to ease. Weak retail sales, a disappointing fiscal print and concerns around the jobs market remain consistent with a cautious view of the UK economy and have dovish implications for the Bank of England. Attention now turns to the Governor’s comments in Wyoming and, further ahead, the 28 October Budget under the new Prime Minister. Globally, renewed US-Iran tensions have brought energy prices, particularly European gas, back into focus alongside inflation concerns. Fiscal uncertainty in France and heavier government and hyperscaler debt issuance have also contributed to higher yields at the long end of global curves. Next week brings RBA minutes, German Ifo, a broad range of EM inflation and central bank events, and the Jackson Hole gathering. In the US, Fed minutes highlighted the committee’s sensitivity to inflation, while Treasury measures aimed at supporting the long end of the bond market are viewed as negative for the dollar. Focus now shifts to Jackson Hole and the Fed reaction function, with NVIDIA earnings providing another important market event. Chapters 00:00 Show Intro 00:33 UK Outlook 02:13 Global Macro Watchlist 03:52 US Rates and Policy 05:58 Weekend Sports Radar 06:42 Long and Short Picks 06:59 Wrap Up and Disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

    UK Fiscal Risks, Global Yields and the Fed at Jackson Hole

  5. Jul 17

    UK Reset, ECB Signals and the AI Earnings Test

    Matt Jones and Neil Staines look ahead to a week shaped by UK political change, major economic releases, the ECB meeting and US earnings. As Andy Burnham becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister, markets will assess his cabinet appointments, fiscal priorities and the potential implications for taxation, public spending and government borrowing. Employment, CPI, business-confidence and retail-sales data will provide fresh evidence on labour-market slack, inflation and underlying demand. Continued uncertainty around the Autumn Budget may also weigh on business investment. Globally, the calendar includes Australian employment, German ZEW, eurozone consumer confidence and July’s flash PMIs. The ECB meeting takes centre stage, although President Lagarde is expected to offer limited forward guidance. In the US, a light data calendar and the Fed blackout period shift attention towards Iran-related geopolitics, energy prices and Q2 earnings. Results from Google, Texas Instruments, Tesla and AT&T will intensify the debate around AI investment, semiconductor demand, earnings growth and valuations. 00:00 Show introduction 00:29 UK politics and economic data 02:40 ECB meeting and the global calendar 04:29 US geopolitics and Q2 earnings 05:51 Weekend sports watchlist 06:56 Long and short picks 07:20 Wrap-up and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

    UK Reset, ECB Signals and the AI Earnings Test

  6. Jul 10

    UK Leadership, European Deficits and the US Inflation Test

    Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macroeconomic and market themes facing professional investors in the week ahead. In the UK, attention turns to the Parliamentary Labour Party’s leadership nomination deadline and the policy direction of the next administration. Neil considers the commitment to the existing fiscal rules, the fragile backdrop for output, employment and productivity, and the latest GDP, trade and industrial production data. He also examines the prospect of a more dovish Bank of England during the second half of the year and the importance of maintaining credibility in the gilt market. Across Europe, the discussion covers the court ruling on Marine Le Pen’s eligibility to contest the next French presidential election, persistent deficit pressures and the requirement for greater defence spending. With the ECB entering its blackout period, markets will also assess the revised eurozone inflation figures and the potential path of interest rates. Further afield, the focus shifts to China’s second-quarter GDP and June activity data, a potential 25-basis-point rate increase in South Korea, international trade releases and TSMC’s latest earnings. In the US, geopolitical developments involving Iran, Russia and Ukraine remain important for energy prices and inflation. A major run of economic releases—including CPI, PPI, retail sales, housing and sentiment data—will help shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and the opening of the second-quarter earnings season will provide further direction for markets. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introduction 00:29 UK politics, economic data and the Bank of England 02:08 European deficits, China data and the global outlook 03:49 US geopolitics, inflation and Federal Reserve policy 05:54 The weekend sports radar 06:55 Neil’s long and short picks 07:12 Closing remarks and disclosures This podcast is intended for professional investors only. Information, data and views were accurate at the time of recording. The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

    UK Leadership, European Deficits and the US Inflation Test

  7. Jul 2

    Lower Oil, Softer Inflation and Shifting Rate Expectations

    Falling oil prices are beginning to reshape the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and global interest rates. Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the macroeconomic themes likely to drive markets in the week ahead, including continued UK fiscal uncertainty, the increasingly dovish signals from major central banks and the implications of lower energy prices for rate expectations. In the UK, they consider the political and fiscal backdrop, the apparent £15 billion budget shortfall and the commitment to existing fiscal rules that has so far helped keep gilt markets calm. They also examine Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments at Sintra, where falling energy prices, weakening activity, softer labour markets and a widening output gap supported a more dovish policy narrative. The discussion then turns to the global economy, covering stabilising Chinese PMIs, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preference to pause and assess, a strong Japanese Tankan survey and a softer Eurozone inflation picture. Key data to watch include Australian inflation, Eurozone investor confidence and retail sales, Japanese cash earnings, Chinese CPI and PPI, and a busy schedule of emerging-market central bank meetings and inflation releases. In the US, attention remains on payrolls and the emerging policy stance of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. His comments on AI-led supply-side expansion, stronger productivity, higher potential growth and declining inflation risks pointed towards a more dovish interpretation, despite his reluctance to provide explicit forward guidance. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and introduction 00:29 UK politics, fiscal uncertainty and gilts 02:07 Global macroeconomic outlook 03:58 The Federal Reserve, Warsh and payrolls 06:01 Weekend watchlist 07:22 Long and short picks 07:46 Closing remarks and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

    Lower Oil, Softer Inflation and Shifting Rate Expectations

  8. Jun 19

    From Makerfield to Hormuz: Markets Watch the Risks

    Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to review a busy week for macro markets and look ahead to the key themes investors will be watching next. In the UK, softer CPI and PPI, firmer employment data, and stronger retail sales added to a more constructive data backdrop. The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75 percent, with two hawkish dissents, but Eurizon SLJ’s view remains that rates are likely to stay on hold through the summer, with Bank Rate pricing lower towards the end of 2026. Neil also discusses why the Makerfield by-election could keep gilt markets focused on fiscal risks and financial conditions. Globally, central banks remained active, with policy holds from several major central banks, rate hikes in the Philippines and Indonesia, and a rate cut in Brazil. The US-Iran MoU also helped lower oil prices and improve global risk sentiment, although uncertainty around the Middle East remains. In the US, Neil reviews the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets interpreted the updated dots and PCE projections as hawkish, but Eurizon SLJ continues to expect eventual US rate cuts, particularly if oil supply risks continue to ease. Next week’s calendar is lighter, with attention on Australian data, ECB inflation expectations, global flash PMIs, oil prices, US yields, and the dollar. For professional investors only. Information, data, and views were accurate as at the time of recording. Chapters 00:00 Show introduction 00:29 UK data and Bank of England 02:12 Politics and gilts 02:42 Global central banks 03:25 Middle East and oil 04:59 US Fed and outlook 07:18 Weekend watchlist 08:07 Long and short picks 08:30 Closing and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

    From Makerfield to Hormuz: Markets Watch the Risks
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About

Providing first-hand emerging and developed market insights with a global context of how the world views these markets.

Information

  • Creator
    Eurizon SLJ Capital
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    243
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Eurizon SLJ Capital
  • Show Website
    Eurizon SLJ Capital

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