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  1. 2d ago

    Opening Bell - 27 / 07 / 2026

    Cooling Crude, Easing Geopolitics to Lift Indian Markets US markets declined for a second consecutive week — Nasdaq down 2.13%, S&P and Dow marginally lower — as Treasury yields surged ahead of the Fed meeting (10-year at a one-year high, 30-year briefly above 5.15%) and AI capex guidance drew scrutiny despite in-line tech earnings; semiconductors (SanDisk, Micron, Intel) lagged sharply. Nifty and Sensex logged five straight losing sessions — the sharpest weekly drop in months — as Brent crude topped $100/bbl on Middle East tensions, the rupee weakened, FIIs stayed net sellers, and bank earnings disappointed; Nifty 50 closed down 2.33% at 23,767.45, Nifty Bank fell 3.12% to 56,693, with Realty (-4.02%) and Banks leading sectoral losses. HSBC Flash India PMI showed private-sector activity expanding at its slowest pace in over four years in July, though manufacturing held up relatively well. FIIs sold ~Rs 7,200 crore for the week on elevated US yields and valuation concerns, while DIIs cushioned the market with ~Rs 8,600 crore of buying; the rupee touched a near two-month low of ₹96.67/USD before settling around ₹96.50. Crude oil retreated sharply (Brent oil futures Oct expiry is now trading near $88) from above the $100 level after the U.S. held off further strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night, deflating the geopolitical risk premium; reports of Chinese-brokered diplomacy between Washington and Tehran added to the pullback. Markets will track the FOMC decision (Wednesday), Q2 GDP and June PCE data (Thursday), alongside global cues from crude oil, new US tariffs on major trading partners, and continued FII/DII flow dynamics in India. The Nifty faces overhead resistance near the 24,000 level; a close above this could trigger further short covering, while a decisive slide below the immediate support of 23,600 may open the door to a larger downside in the near term. Indian markets are poised to open sharply higher, buoyed by a retreat in crude oil prices amid a thaw in geopolitical hostilities.

  2. Jul 15

    Opening Bell - 15 / 07 / 2026

    Cooling Inflation and Bank Earnings Fuel Wall Street Rally Major US stock indexes rose after June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 0.4% monthly decline, bringing annual inflation down to 3.5%. The unexpectedly soft reading triggered a sharp shift in rate expectations, with the probability of a July Fed hike falling from 42% to 17%. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month in June — the largest single-month decline in over six years — driven by a 9.7% plunge in gasoline prices following the temporary US-Iran ceasefire that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Core CPI rose just 2.6% year-over-year, below the 2.9% estimate. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh nonetheless stopped short of signalling rate cuts, reaffirming the Fed's commitment to price stability. Five of the largest US banks posted a combined 39% jump in quarterly earnings, powered by strong investment banking fees and equities trading revenue. Goldman Sachs led the rally, rising 9% to a new all-time high, while JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America also posted solid share-price gains on their results. The Nasdaq advanced 0.9% as semiconductor stocks rebounded from the prior session's sell-off, with Micron Technology and Lam Research each gaining roughly 5%. The tech-heavy index nonetheless came under pressure from a historic drop in IBM shares after the company warned of weaker-than-expected software and infrastructure profits. IBM shares fell sharply after a disappointing second quarter, with adjusted EPS of $2.93 against a $3.01 estimate and revenue of $17.2 billion versus $17.86 billion expected. The miss reignited concerns over near-term AI monetisation, rippling through the broader tech sector and acting as the single biggest drag on the Dow Jones. CrowdStrike, Fortinet, and other cybersecurity names rose after IBM's results suggested enterprise customers are shifting spend away from legacy IT vendors — reinforcing the view that AI-driven security platforms are capturing budget dollars that traditional infrastructure players are losing. SK Hynix surged 19% to $181.67 on Tuesday, as newly launched US single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to the Korean memory chipmaker drove a wave of retail buying. The rally lifted memory and storage names, including Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital, even as South Korea's broader KOSPI index remains roughly 25% below its June peak amid concerns that the AI trade may be overextended. Crude oil prices climbed back above $80 per barrel as the US and Iran exchanged renewed military strikes and Washington reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping. Brent crude spiked as high as $86 a barrel — a one-month high — after Iran struck two UAE oil tankers and the US confirmed strikes on Iranian military targets. Gains were pared after President Trump abandoned a proposed 20% transit fee on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead to pursue investment deals with Gulf states. Asian market opened higher today, tracking gains in U.S. stocks on the back of a chip rally. The Indian rupee underperformed its Asian peers, depreciating 58 paise to close at 96.20, its weakest level in a month. A surge in crude prices amid rising geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on the currency, while higher global bond yields could dampen expected inflows into the FCNR(B) scheme, adding further pressure. India's retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.38% (provisional) in June 2026. This marked an acceleration from the 3.93% recorded in May 2026, largely driven by a spike in food prices and the effects of a weaker-than-normal monsoon. Nifty snapped its three-session winning streak, declining 158 points to close at 24052 yesterday. The index remains in a consolidation phase. Looking ahead, the recent swing high near 24,260 is likely to act as near-term resistance, while support is placed around 23,800. Indian markets are set to open on a flat to positive note amid encouraging global cues.

  3. Jul 6

    Opening Bell - 06 / 07 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Soft Jobs Data Fuels Markets Rally Ahead of Quarterly Earnings Season US markets ended the week of July 3 with gains after a softer-than-expected US jobs print and cooler rate-hike expectations, led by cyclical and communication services while defensives underperformed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed last week as investors priced in a slower Fed rate-hiking path after US jobs data, with stocks set for their best weekly performance since May. Markets are recalibrating rate expectations after Fed funds futures indicated roughly even odds of a rate hike by September, though June's weaker-than-expected jobs report tempered immediate fears. S&P 500 companies are collectively expected to report Q2 earnings growth of over 24%, with earnings season kicking off this week as a key catalyst for equities. Indian equities ended the week of 3 July on a constructive note, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex both closing higher and benchmarks supported by softer crude, improved global cues, and a rebound in IT. A key tailwind was the decline in crude oil prices, which eased inflation and import bill concerns for India. The other major support came from improving global risk appetite, expectations of a more accommodative US rate path, and a better tone around the India-Japan Summit. The upcoming quarterly results season will be closely watched for signs of demand recovery, margin resilience, and management commentary on second-half growth. Markets are likely to react more to guidance and earnings quality than to headline numbers. In the near term, the bias remains positive as long as the Nifty holds above the 24,000 zone, with 24,400–24,600 likely to act as resistance if momentum continues. Indian markets are set to open on muted note amid cautious global cues.

  4. Jun 30

    Opening Bell - 30 / 06 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Dow Crosses 52,000 as Tech Rebounds U.S. equity markets saw a significant recovery yesterday, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing over 2% to break a five-day decline. The S&P 500 rose more than 1%, while the Dow Jones crossed the 52,000 threshold for the first time in its history. This broad rally was largely fueled by a resurgence in technology and artificial intelligence stocks following a volatile period of selling. Alphabet officially debuted as a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average this week, replacing Verizon in the blue-chip index. The stock's inclusion helped propel the Dow to record highs amid a broader rally in mega-cap technology names. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 2026 meeting, but officials signalled a more aggressive stance for the remainder of the year. Updated projections show that a majority of policymakers now anticipate additional rate hikes rather than cuts due to persistent inflation concerns. This hawkish shift follows the first meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, whose leadership has seen a removal of previous language hinting at future policy easing. Asian markets opened higher today, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight. Last night in US, all three major indices closed on the higher end after a pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran lifted sentiment. India's industrial activity gathered pace, with industrial output growth accelerating to a five-month high of 5.1% YoY in May from 4.9% YoY in April. The improvement was led by the electricity and gas segment, which expanded 9.9%, compared with 4.6% in the previous month The Union Cabinet approved an additional ₹30,000 crore investment in the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), doubling the Centre's total commitment to ₹60,000 crore. The fresh capital will be deployed towards launching NIIF Infrastructure Fund II. The rupee began the week on a weaker note, depreciating by 14 paise. The decline was driven by month-end dollar demand, elevated crude oil prices, and a risk-off sentiment amid rising geopolitical uncertainties. The gains from the previous two sessions were reversed yesterday, the first day of the week, as the Nifty fell 109 points to close at 23,946. Nifty remains supported by the near-term averages clustered near the 23,800 level, while the recent swing low at 23,789 offers an additional near-term floor. On the upside, the key resistance remains at the swing high of 24,261; a decisive breakout above this level would restore the near-term bullish bias. Indian markets are set to open on a mildly positive note amid encouraging global cues.

  5. Jun 22

    Opening Bell - 22 / 06 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Small is Beautiful – Look Beyond the Index Indian benchmark indices ended higher for the second consecutive week, supported by easing crude oil prices and easing geopolitical concerns. The Nifty 50 snapped its losing streak, reclaiming the 24,000 level. Fed rate-hike concerns stoked fears of FII outflows from emerging markets, while Accenture's revenue growth guidance cut triggered a broad-based selloff in IT stocks. Offsetting these pressures, strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals — robust retail demand and sustained infrastructure momentum — provided a floor. U.S. stocks remained highly volatile, pulled in opposing directions by a pivotal Federal Reserve policy shift and fast-moving geopolitical developments. For the week, the Nasdaq gained 1.9%, the S&P 500 added 1.1%, and the Dow finished marginally higher. The Fed's midweek meeting — the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh — held rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, but the accompanying tone was decidedly hawkish. Nifty closing above 24,000 after a long pause marks a clear breakout, but the real story is happening beneath the headline index. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks have begun to show greater momentum than large-cap names. Expect smaller stocks to continue outperforming in the medium-term, as valuations re-rate and earnings recover across cyclical segments. Indian markets are set to open higher on positive global cues.

  6. Jun 12

    Opening Bell - 12 / 06 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Hopes of IRAN-US Breakthrough Bouy Global Markets Indian markets posed to open on a constructive note, buoyed by progress on U.S. – Iran agreement U.S. equities rallied sharply on Thursday, led by a strong rebound in semiconductor stocks, after President Donald Trump announced the suspension of planned strikes on Iran and signalled that a deal with Tehran is nearing completion. Trump yesterday stated that the U.S. is close to finalizing an agreement ensuring Iran will not develop nuclear weapons, adding that the deal is in its final stages and expected to be signed soon. The S&P 500 advanced 1.75% to close at 7,394.30, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.54% to 25,809.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 929.97 points, or 1.86%, to settle at 50,848.75. A rebound in Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel provided momentum to the market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) gained more than 8%. On the macro front, the U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.1% in May, exceeding expectations of 0.7%. However, core PPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.4%, slightly below estimates of 0.5%. Crude oil prices declined sharply, with WTI falling toward $86 per barrel, its lowest level since April, following easing geopolitical tensions. Treasuries rallied on Thursday, sending yields lower across the board, as oil dropped. Gold extended its climb to over $4,210 an ounce. The dollar was a touch stronger against all its Group-of-10 peers. Asian markets opened firmly higher, tracking the strong rally on Wall Street amid optimism surrounding the potential U.S.–Iran agreement. Back home, Indian benchmark indices witnessed another volatile session. The Nifty ended 53 points lower at 23,161. After opening with a gap-down of 110 points on weak global cues, the index staged a sharp intraday recovery of over 250 points. However, selling pressure in the latter half erased gains, dragging the index down more than 230 points from the intraday high of 23,327. Broader markets continued to underperform for the second consecutive session, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 declining by 0.81% and 0.67%, respectively. After two sessions of gains, the Indian Rupee depreciated by 50 paise yesterday, pressured by rising Middle East tensions, fresh dollar demand due to forward maturities, and a rebound in the dollar index driven by safe-haven flows. Technically, Nifty found support near the previous swing low of 23,070 and attempted a recovery. This price action indicates the potential formation of a double bottom pattern on the daily chart, highlighting the significance of the 23,070 support level. For further upside, a decisive breakout above 23,425 is crucial. A sustained move above this level could trigger a pullback rally toward the next resistance at 23,700. Indian markets are set to open higher on conducive global cues.

  7. Jun 11

    Opening Bell - 11 / 06 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary U.S. stocks Fell Sharply as President Trump Threatens more Iran attacks U.S. stocks tumbled sharply on Wednesday after President Donald Trump warned that talks with Iran were “taking too long” and threatened further action. The Dow plunged 953.33 points (1.87%) to 49,918.78, the S&P 500 slipped 1.62% to 7,266.99, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.98% to 25,169.50. Semiconductor names again led the weakness. Micron Technology, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom all declined, marking their fourth down day in five sessions. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) dropped more than 3%. Some traders attribute selling in chip names to position adjustments ahead of Friday’s SpaceX IPO, with retail investors freeing up capital for what could be the largest IPO ever. On the macro front, May’s core consumer price index (ex-food and energy) was a bit lower than expected at 0.2% month-on-month versus a 0.3% consensus. Year-on-year core CPI held at 2.9%, matching estimates but still above the Fed’s 2% target. Headline inflation, which includes all items, climbed above 4% for the first time in three years. In commodities, gold plunged over 4% amid a stronger dollar and equity weakness, while oil rallied after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran stoked fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Brent August futures gained nearly 2% to about $95 a barrel. Asian markets opened lower, dragged by the Wall Street selloff and rising crude, with renewed U.S.-Iran tensions adding to risk-off sentiment. Coming to our markets, Indian benchmark indices witnessed another volatile session yesterday, with the Nifty closing 27 points lower at 23,214. After a muted start the index rallied more than 200 points from early lows in the first half, but a sharp reversal in the second half erased gains. The broader markets faced significant selling pressure, with the Microcap 250, Smallcap 100, and Midcap 100 all forming bearish engulfing patterns on the daily charts. After Monday’s outperformance, these indices lagged the benchmark yesterday, as the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 fell 1.49% and 1.33%, respectively. Market breadth weakened considerably, with the BSE advance-decline ratio sliding to 0.54. Technically, Nifty remains in a downtrend, trading below all key moving averages. A decisive close below 23,000 could trigger further downside towards the 22,700–22,800 support zone, while 23,515 is expected to act as immediate resistance on any pullback. Indian markets are expected to open lower on the back of weak global cues

  8. Jun 10

    Opening Bell - 10 / 06 / 2026

    Opening Bell - Morning Commentary U.S. stocks ended mixed but recover from deep losses amid renewed US-Iran tensions U.S. equities ended mixed on Tuesday, recovering from steep intraday losses amid heightened geopolitical tensions after President Donald Trump warned of retaliation following an Iranian attack that shot down an American helicopter. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to close at 7,385.48, recovering from an intraday decline of as much as 2.3%. The index recorded a sharp 3.4% bottom-to-top reversal—its second largest since April 2025, when the Trump administration paused additional tariffs, according to Bloomberg data. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1% to 25,678.82, trimming a steeper fall of 3.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 50,870.94 after reversing losses of up to 1.1%. Sentiment weakened after initial hopes of Middle East de-escalation faded, with Trump confirming that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. In commodities, gold and silver dropped to two-month lows amid rising rate expectations and geopolitical developments. Brent crude rebounded 1% today to $92.50 per barrel after briefly slipping below $90 yesterday. Asian markets trading lower today, tracking geopolitical concerns and a selloff in technology stocks. On the domestic front, The Indian rupee appreciated by 36 paise yesterday to close at 95.35 against the dollar, supported by a risk-on sentiment driven by a weaker US dollar and softer crude oil prices amid easing geopolitical concerns. Additionally, renewed inflows into the debt market, following recent RBI measures, lent further support to the currency. Indian markets rebounded strongly yesterday after sharp fall on the Monday. The Nifty 50 gained 119 points and ended near day high to close at 23243. Broader markets outperformed, with midcap and smallcap indices posting gains, supported by strong market breadth. Technically, Nifty managed to hold above the previous session’s low of 23,070, which is a constructive sign indicating buying interest at lower levels. However, the current rebound is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. A decisive move above 23,516 is required to negate the prevailing downtrend. On the downside, the 23,000–23,100 zone remains a key support. A break below 23,000 could accelerate declines toward the 22,700–22,800 zone. Indian markets are expected to open mildly lower, tracking weak Asian cues, while midcap and smallcap stocks are likely to continue their outperformance.

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Stay updated with the latest happenings in the world of stock markets with our expert analysts

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    HDFC Securities
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
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