Thinking Long & Short: An Investment Professionals Podcast

True North International Partners, LLP
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Financial Markets - Navigating the Playground Finance Economics Investing Business Subscribe to True North Market Research's Investment Professionals Daily Newsletter for detailed market analysis and breakdown/ along with investment analysis and trading thoughts in a quick yet informative morning read @ truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com Email truenorthinternationalpartners@gmail.com for information on newsletter subscriptions or any questions or requests regarding podcast content

  1. 10/30/2022

    The Time to Buy Stocks is Now - EP 77

    - The DJIA outperforms the NASDAQ by 9% after posting its best October in history - Corporate earnings for value stocks hold up as earnings for growth stocks tumble - Interest rates on bonds continue to remain high as the yield curve continues to show deeper inversions/recession warnings - American Express reports consumer loan balances up 28.9% year-over-year as inflation continues to impact the consumer - Value stocks will outperform growth stocks for years - All recent economic data shows a weak economy and stubbornly high inflation - Republicans will likely sweep the midterms, which will be welcomed by Wall Street as investors typically like gridlock in Washington

  2. 10/15/2022

    Wall Street Analysts Just Don't Get It - EP 76

    - Stocks get clobbered on Friday to finish a very volatile week on Wall Street - CPI inflation data comes in twice as high as economists expected as Retail Sales data shows consumer continues to weaken with the economy - Cyclical and growth stocks continue to get hammered with interest rates and bond yields continuing to rise - US Dollar Index reaches new high on the year as investors blindly bet on more rate hikes / peak inflation - Tom Lee and CNBC analysts have been completely wrong on anything and everything in markets this year - Gold continues to outperform everything (S&P 500 / DOW / NASDAQ / Bonds / Bitcoin) as yellow metal flies below the radar - OPEC production cuts keep oil prices propped up amid recession fears  - Pepsi reports 17% Y-o-Y increase in product pricing as they beat earnings estimates along with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo - The Federal Reserve is behind the inflation curve more now than they were at the start of 2022

  3. 10/09/2022

    This Bear Market Continues to Slide a Slope of Hope - EP 75

    - Nonfarm Payroll Report causes ugly sell off for stocks  - Some of CNBC analysts' favorite stocks have been clobbered this year with more downside to come - Extremely high auto loan growth shows how weak the consumer is and how easy credit conditions are continuing to cause inflation - S&P 500 is forming very bearish technical patterns as fundamentals for stocks continue to worsen - If corporate earnings don't take down the stock market, inflation & higher interest rates will - US bond market continues to show major weakness as yield curve inverts even more with rising rates across the board - Labor market is much weaker beneath the surface and so is the US economy

  4. 10/02/2022

    Q3 Wrap Up - The 2nd Worst Year for Investors Ever - EP 74

    - Stocks close the week with big losses to finish worst September for stocks since 2008 - Higher interest rates could cause a lost decade for stock and bond investors, 60/40 portfolio having second-worst year ever (1931) - Bank of England becomes first major central bank to pivot from its inflation fighting policies - The bond market will continue to drag the stock market down, Fed pivot becomes more imminent - The Fed has pricked the debt bubble it created in 2008, Financial Crisis close on the horizon - Inflation is only just getting started, input costs and slowing growth putting downward pressure on stocks - Stagflation will make stock and bond returns resemble the 1970s decade

  5. 09/25/2022

    Stocks Get Crushed in A New Era of Tight Money - EP 73

    - Stocks make new yearly lows as S&P 500 closes the week down 23% / NASDAQ down 31% in 2022 - Powell delivers hawkish speech with 75 bps interest rate hike, projects pain for labor market and the economy - Businesses are still experiencing cost pressures that they will pass on to customers in 2023 - Interest rates will derail the housing and stock market, but not inflation - Mortgage rates have only just started their rapid rise, a substantial housing market correction is imminent - Stocks are still way too expensive historically and are headed much lower in coming months - Bulls throw in the towel and reduce S&P 500 price targets, but still remain clueless on market risks

  6. 09/18/2022

    Stocks Get Clobbered As Investors Start to Accept Recession Reality But Remain Complacent on Future Inflation - EP 72

    - US stocks post massive weekly decline on recession fears and higher inflation data - FedEx posts 33% miss on earnings, CEO warns of global recession as company lays off 34,500 employees - All economic data is showing stagflation across the global economy as recession gets worse with rising inflation pressures - Investors still remain complacent to how high interest rates will rise, bonds/stocks/houses still remain completely overpriced (30-40%) - Prices are 15.4% higher in past 27 months as measured by CPI, despite the government's effort to conceal the real housing market inflation - Mortgage rates have increased the cost of home ownership by 42% - Foreign investors are showing less buying demand in US Treasuries and US stocks, leading to higher bond yields despite the Fed's reluctance to sell its bond holdings

  7. 09/11/2022

    Don't Fight the Fed - EP 71

    - Listen to the Perfect Spiral football podcast at https://open.spotify.com/show/1q3PEgbgV1qrbO7fEK6TbU?si=2e32ce8e9d794d47 - ECB hikes interest rates with surprise 0.75% increase - Friday's bear market rally will likely be short-lived - QE was the Fed's way of causing a wealth effect to stimulate the economy, QT will reverse the wealth effect and cause stock prices to fall - ARKK and the NASDAQ will suffer the most from higher interest rates - Gold is a much safer asset than bonds and is outperforming all stock market averages in 2022 - Kroger stock pops 7% on earnings as consumers trade down to lower quality stores and try to stretch their budgets - Stock earnings will likely hold up relatively well in Q4 but stock multiples will come down anyway

  8. 09/03/2022

    September Tightening Crushes Stocks & Bonds - EP 70

    - Follow the Perfect Spiral football podcast at https://open.spotify.com/show/1q3PEgbgV1qrbO7fEK6TbU?si=2dcf3686fda64ea8 - Investors continue to believe economy is strong despite numerous weak economic data releases, consumer confidence being the outlier - August Non-Farm Payroll report shows economy added 315,000 jobs, most of which are second-part time jobs as unemployment rate rises to 3.7% - Housing market continues to slow as home price increases come to a halt - More high inflation data comes in for both the US and European countries - The S&P 500 declines 6.5% in one week as the market starts fearing higher rates - The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet slightly ($8.85T to $8.82T), causing bond yields to rip higher  - Gold is down 6% on the year, outperforming the S&P, NASDAQ, and ARKK fund dramatically - Gold mining stocks have huge upside potential relative to downside risk at current prices - CNBC features mostly clueless analysts and perma-bull investors that don't have any understanding of economics

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Financial Markets - Navigating the Playground Finance Economics Investing Business Subscribe to True North Market Research's Investment Professionals Daily Newsletter for detailed market analysis and breakdown/ along with investment analysis and trading thoughts in a quick yet informative morning read @ truenorthmarketresearch.substack.com Email truenorthinternationalpartners@gmail.com for information on newsletter subscriptions or any questions or requests regarding podcast content

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