Happy Groundhog Day! Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow (6 more weeks of winter ☃️), but consumer discretionary stocks are about to heat up!What is Consumer Discretionary?NOT consumer staples (milk, eggs, cereal)The "wants" not "needs" - retailers, restaurants, automakers, home improvementAmazon, Tesla, Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, Chipotle, StarbucksHighly cyclical - outperforms in good times, underperforms in downturnsWhy the Last 5 Years Were Rough:COVID impact on restaurants, brick-and-mortar retail2022: Fed raised rates 7 times (crushed consumer spending)2025: International tariffs pushed up pricesNike, Lululemon: Multiple quarters of negative compsMedian 5-year return: ~9.8% (vs typical 11-12%)Why 2026 Could Be Different:ChatGPT Ads Launch - 1 billion users, new ad format for retailersLower customer acquisition costs - More platforms = cheaper conversionsEasier year-over-year comps - 2025 was terrible, 2026 looks betterInternational brands too cheap - Crocs at 6x free cash flow?!CEO turnarounds - Major brands hiring new leadershipSupply chains stabilizing - Post-tariff efficiency gainsThe ChatGPT Game-Changer:1 billion users (50M paying $200/month for Pro)New ad format: Embedded product suggestions in promptsExample: "Mexican dinner ideas" → Hot sauce ad placementSimilar to Google's playbook: Free product → Monetize with adsRetailers get NEW low-cost acquisition channelStock Opportunities Discussed:- Lovable brands selling cheap: Nike, Lululemon, Crocs- Restaurant plays: Starbucks, Domino's, Chipotle, Cava Group- Software crossover: DraftKings, Duolingo (100M+ users each)- Tesla: Robotaxi progress, new Elon pay package- Adobe: "Dead" due to AI? Still 40% FCF margins, strong retention- The Trade Desk: Collapsed in 2025, cyclical downturn ≠ dead company🎯 February 2026 Recommendation:Simon just released 7investing's official February pick - an up-and-coming consumer discretionary company challenging the "old guard" with:Strong leadership teamInnovation in a legacy-dominated sectorInexpensive valuation due to cyclical downturn🔗 2025 Year in Review: 17 sectors analyzed, conviction ratings for 106+ stocks🔗 Free 7-day trial: https://7investing.com/subscribe🔗 See February 2026 pick: https://7investing.com/recommendationsComing Up in February:Wed 2/4: Emmett Savage on Computer Modeling GroupNext week: ChipStock Investor on semiconductors2/13: Manisha Premsingh on biotech innovationLater: John Rotonti, Jeff Fischer, Eric Bleecker⚠️ Not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.#consumerdiscretionary #retailstocks #ChatGPT #advertising #investing #stockmarket #Nike #Lululemon #Tesla #Adobe #7investing #2026stocks #cyclicalstocks #valueinvesting
