Change My Mind

Alex Buxeda

The purpose of dialogue is to let ideas die instead of us.

  1. Sep 9

    Free Will & the Is/Ought Problem | Bayan Furutan and Alex Buxeda

    A conversation between Bayan Furutan and Alex Buxeda on whether an "ought" can be derived from an "is," whether free will exists, and what it would take to prove it doesn't. Alex argues, along Sam Harris and Robert Sapolsky lines, that free will is an illusion: we are patterns of matter running a nested hierarchy of priors, from physics to biology to culture, and every choice is ruled by cause and effect. Awareness of the universe, on this view, collapses the is and the ought into one. Bayan holds free will as an axiom, accepted the way we accept that our senses reflect reality, and sets a high bar for disproving it: predict my behavior as reliably as we predict a planet's orbit. Between those poles the conversation ranges across the thermostat as the smallest unit of decision, natural selection and entropy, poker and game theory, the abortion debate as a case of "a spectrum matching a spectrum," the Mormons as a test of whether a false belief can still be fit, and whether you act as if you have agency, or watching yourself act? Chapters: 0:00 Can an ought be derived from an is? 1:51 The man hit by a car: same "is," different "oughts" 4:55 Every ought needs an "if": survival as the hidden premise 7:05 Paying back what it took to build you: entropy and natural selection 9:21 "What are you doing" vs. "why are you doing it" 11:53 Deriving the why from the what, and how bandwidth changes the answer 13:47 Co-evolution: black holes, universes, and turtles all the way down 16:16 Why criticism needs an alternative: the Enlightenment proposal 18:47 Free will as the real crux: is it required for an "ought"? 20:34 Hard determinism, Sam Harris, and "if you were Stalin" 22:15 Experience vs. proof: why Bayan holds free will as an axiom 27:43 Defining free will: what would non-free will even mean? 28:39 The thermostat as the smallest unit of decision 29:46 Is consciousness computational? Penrose and the counter 31:07 Poker, game theory, and modeling the other player 32:06 The real dividing line: can you act against your nature? 37:11 Zooming out: the lineage that never jumps into the street 40:19 Signal, noise, and why bigger samples reveal the laws of nature 42:04 Are you a set of instructions? The direct question 45:40 "Yes." Sapolsky and the nested hierarchy of priors 54:36 Diminishing returns toward 100%: chipping at the variance 1:00:07 A thought experiment: what correlation would settle it? 1:01:00 The god-of-the-gaps objection and spontaneous generation 1:03:43 Predictability across a lifetime: fetus, mid-20s, old age 1:07:16 At what point does free will emerge? The abortion parallel 1:10:42 A spectrum must be matched by a spectrum: the speeding-ticket model 1:18:17 Where does a human start having rights and obligations? 1:23:32 A reasonable hypothesis, but not proof: the high threshold 1:26:35 Markets, courts, and how truth is discovered collectively 1:30:11 The beehive: how a spectrum emerges from

  2. Mar 18

    What is Trust? w/ Karl Friston

    I am joined by neuroscientist Karl Friston to discuss, from first principles, what trust is. The trust we put in others, and in our institutions, is a sociological feature emergent from biology. It is here that predictions first appear. This conversation inspired an article we co-wrote: ⁠https://schweizermonat.ch/trust-is-a-law-of-nature/ 0:00 What is trust, in active inference terms? 1:07 Trust in your own future: planning as inference 2:16 Confidence, precision, and the shape of a belief 3:45 Two ways to minimize surprise: seeking info vs. avoiding surprise 5:48 Epistemic trust: choosing where to get your news 6:24 Scale invariance: from eye movements to which institutions you trust 8:20 Trust as a meta-judgment of your past predictions 9:11 The statistician's view: estimating risk, not just reward 10:56 When second-order inference fails: hallucinations and neglect 12:50 Delusional institutions: the same mechanics in markets and geopolitics 13:45 Precision as attention: what you trust is what you attend to 14:56 Rediscovering natural selection from a different angle 17:20 Bayesian model selection is nature's way of selecting phenotypes 19:58 Why the free energy principle complies with itself 21:14 Donald Hoffman, mortal computation, and neuronal chauvinism 22:31 We are the substrate: predicting ourselves into existence 24:07 Everything is a hypothesis, including time and the self 25:10 Do we see truth? What can be ignored isn't true 26:13 There is no truth, only the best inference for me 27:33 Synchronization of chaos: coupling your brain to the world 28:45 A joint free energy solution: becoming mutually predictable 29:38 Aligned interests: why you trust the table, your liver, and me 31:52 Negative valence: trusting that a lion wants to eat you 32:47 Shorting the BBC: the cost of distrust 33:33 Fake news, epistemic trust, and the pillars of autocracy 34:15 Sharing a generative model: how we become predictable to each other 35:47 Defining yourself by the states you refuse to occupy 38:04 Is this source generated by someone like me? 38:36 Why echo chambers are Bayes-optimal until communities open 39:54 Too many choices: why it's awful for young people now 40:58 Friston: no phone, no social media, no awful uncertainty 41:15 Australia's under-16 social media ban, seen mathematically 42:06 Information like capital: who should handle how much 42:48 The pathology: social media attracts more capital when you lose 43:28 Markets are grown up, social media is pre-adolescent 44:11 Science as selection: theories as surviving hypotheses 44:35 Is religion "true"? The fitness of a simple generative model 46:03 Narrowing choice: why fewer options relieves angst 47:05 "You are your own existence proof" 48:07 Collapsing is and ought: first survive, then philosophize 49:08 "I am, therefore I think" 50:23 The relational aspect: no standalone measure of goodness 53:30 Hardware and software differ only in speed of change 54:33 The renormalization group: same rules at every scale 55:07 Separation of temporal scales: growing slow, learning fast 56:15 What we inherit is learnability, not a finished world model 57:40 Why foolishness was selected for: the reckless years 59:21 "Did evolution fool us?" The value of unsophisticated agents 1:00:24 Variance creates arbitrage: Pinker and common knowledge 1:01:25 Closing thoughts

  3. 12/11/2025

    Sound Money or Soft Despotism w/ Barbara Kolm

    Barbara Kolm, President of the Austrian School of Economics, joins Alex Buxeda to dismantle the myths of monetary nationalism, expose the political incentives behind inflation, and explain why trust collapses when money becomes a political tool. They explore Carl Menger’s legacy, why money is a discovery not an invention, how time and information shape economic order, and why Europe is quietly drifting toward central planning through the “law of rules”.From Bitcoin’s “don’t trust, verify,” to demographic decline, taxation traps, bureaucratic overreach, CBDCs, nudging theory, and the collapse of competitiveness in Europe, this episode is a deep dive into the institutions that shape freedom, responsibility, and prosperity.   0:00 Monetary nationalism and why debasing your currency backfires 1:54 What sound money is, and why states debase it 4:01 Menger vs. Knapp: money as discovery, not law 7:52 Time, value, and why information spreads slowly 10:01 Stability, the rule of law, and the "law of rules" 11:59 Brussels, central planning, and the lost subsidiarity principle 15:17 Europe's demographic collapse and falling productivity 17:46 Taxes on labor and why no one works more 20:03 The hidden costs in tax and social security 22:04 Capital flees to where it's best treated: Venezuela 23:31 Price tags on government: making the cost visible 27:08 Social justice, responsibility, and providing opportunity vs. redistribution 32:04 Fractional reserve, cash limits, and destroying property rights 34:35 CBDCs, self-sovereignty, and why cash is the ultimate settlement 38:11 Nudging as central planning: Spain's blackout and Germany's solar 41:52 Closing thoughts

  4. 10/02/2024

    Entropy and Understanding

    In this episode, Tobe joins me to discuss how consilience collapses concepts, the nature of entropy, markets as anticipation machines, biology as a model of past environments that survives by matching the present and future, the division of labor freeing mental bandwidth, energy as the basis of value, and the provisional nature of all knowledge. 0:00 Defining entropy: not disorder, but the fall toward the probable 2:07 Local order vs. global decay: the zero-sum game 4:19 One model, and the case against synonyms 4:53 Is model-building epistemologically bankrupt? 6:37 "Your longing for capital-T truth is quasi-religious" 7:46 There's no way out of building a model 10:55 Why zero-sum can be rejected empirically 13:24 Entropy, time, and space as the same thing 16:07 Local order: life reversing the global trend 20:00 Big bang, heat death, and where life emerges between 21:23 The coffee and milk: beauty before mixing 23:24 Markets as anticipation machines: shorting the CEO 25:45 Short vs. portfolio: two different activities 27:54 Market makers set the price, not the uncertainty 30:57 Prediction as the wiring of the brain 34:09 Dispelling uncertainty and replacing it with control 36:26 Shepherd and sheep: does the shepherd choose his power? 38:16 Free will underlies entropy: escaping cause and effect 41:15 Dennett and why free will has been a distraction 43:46 Freedom from what? Coercion, violence, and flourishing 48:00 Switzerland's tax on labor and the myth of the simple rule 51:11 The hidden meta-tax of thinking about tax 53:31 Everything is simplification: the laptop and division of labor 56:37 Evaluating worthiness: marginal returns vs. speculation 59:04 The Microsoft vs. Apple mistake: looking deeper 1:01:09 You always build with tools you don't understand 1:04:42 Why complexity is manufactured: people want power over you 1:07:14 Obscure writing, French culture, and Dawkins 1:09:44 Free speech: the purpose of dialogue is to let ideas die 1:11:00 Energy as the basis of value: the 50,000-calorie meal 1:17:03 Why slavery isn't profitable in the long run 1:18:52 Did you arrive at a truth, or just short a bad strategy? 1:23:57 Is the economy zero-sum? Ingenuity as the ultimate resource 1:25:24 Marxism, surplus, and why a free market corrects it 1:29:52 The dot-com implosion: the market, or delusion? 1:33:36 Physics vs. models: the underlying and the error 1:36:00 Silly ideas: religion, Marxism, and the baby with the bathwater 1:39:16 "Isn't this just: knowledge is provisional?" 1:42:13 Two centuries of plummeting costs: the map must fit reality 1:44:04 The religious view vs. the Spinozan empiricist view 1:50:32 Is the heat death empirical, or a conjecture? 1:53:16 The alien who made your bed: the unfalsifiable claim 1:57:02 Bayesian priors and why the hypothetical adds nothing 2:03:28 Past and future as symmetrical in uncertainty 2:06:28 What a hedge actually is: the dangerous street 2:08:41 Managing downside vs. engineering the upside 2:11:46 Taleb's bet: knowing who goes bankrupt, not who gets rich 2:13:05 The engineer who touches reality vs. the abstracted manager 2:16:00 The mechanic and the manager: different data, not a hierarchy 2:19:16 An ever-richer prior, not an ever-simpler model 2:23:05 Wittgenstein: words have no meaning on their own 2:24:09 Why LLMs work: the latent space, not a simple model 2:28:04 Could we rebuild it if it broke? The blueprint survives 2:28:55 Is 10% a good test of importance? Tech, Nvidia, the limit 2:33:29 Subsidizing bad engineers so the good ones stay 2:34:09 Back to entropy: God is dead, humans just do their thing

  5. 02/05/2024

    Efficiently Feeding the World with Microalgae W/ Fengzheng Gao

    Today, I had a conversation with Fengzheng Gao. Fengzheng is a researcher specializing in Microalgal Biotechnology, and he holds two doctorates, one in Bioprocess Engineering and another one in Aquatic Product Processing and Storage Engineering. He has contributed to over 20 scientific publications. We talked about the potential of microalgae in optimizing the food chain in order to provide abundant food to the poorest at an accessible cost, how microalgae can supplement the iron intake of the people suffering from iron deficiencies better than conventional iron supplements, the vastly promising future of algae strains in solving any nutritional problem we might face, bioengineering as a solution to climate change and much more. Check Gao's Linkedin Google Scholar Profile⁠ 0:00 Microalgae for iron deficiency: spirulina beats the control 1:26 Why microalgae could revolutionize food 5:22 100 times more iron than beef, and other valuable compounds 7:17 Concentration vs. absorption: bioavailability explained 9:14 Filling the gap between algae production and nutrition science 11:11 Why maximizing one number tells you almost nothing 13:03 A luminous cube of algae: the efficiency of photosynthesis 15:52 Selecting strains by natural selection instead of gene editing 20:00 Why lab-selected strains count as "wild type" and are allowed 21:52 Where spirulina came from: the lakes of Mexico and Africa 23:47 Why spirulina is a master food source 25:44 Iron deficiency affects two billion people 27:55 Why women and children suffer most 28:34 A speculation on epigenetic adaptation to blood loss 30:55 Human ingenuity as the last bottleneck 35:08 Iron as the growth bottleneck of the oceans 38:19 Iron dumping to fight climate change: a crazy idea 39:53 Algae, not rainforests, are the lungs of the Earth 41:00 Extreme strains: algae from a volcano at pH 1.5 42:56 Could a super-fit mutant take over the world? 46:36 Nature's balance and the MMA analogy 47:31 Closing thoughts

  6. 12/17/2023

    Intelligence, Neurodivergence and Epistemology W/ Abel Abelson

    Abel Abelson, a neurodivergent writer and YouTuber, has navigated the unique challenges of being distinct from the majority, on which our conversation focuses mainly. He was recognized by Mensa with an IQ of 133, which places him in the 98th percentile in terms of cognitive ability. Today we talked about whether every problem can be solved through further understanding, how one can be content with the fact that one will be discontent, the apparent incompatibility of acceptance and performance, how to define happiness, the need for enough similarities between two people to have a successful relationship, the pursuit of transcendent threads of logic, how the reason you like football has nothing to do with football and all to do with the fact that you are an ape, the huge variance among people in curiosity and intelligence and the best way to approach it, disgustingness of the anti-egalitarian nature of the massive differences in intelligence across the population, the leverage of your actions as a measure of your intelligence, the nature of trauma, the power of mindfulness, the self-fulfilling effect of believing that you have a problem, progressive voluntary exposure as a solution to fear and trauma, the incoherence of free will as uncaused behavior, the need for immediate regulation of our emotions after a dramatically negative event to avoid trauma, the need to update our knowledge faster than every 1000 years, the perpetual ability to establish dialogue if you criticize the antibodies of the incendiary ideas, and the incoherence of the Naturalistic fallacy. You can find Abel on ⁠YouTube⁠ Buy Abel’s books on ⁠Amazon 0:00 Can everything be solved through understanding? 7:54 Suffering, acceptance, and via negativa 14:48 Happiness: wholeness vs. progress toward a goal 23:46 Curiosity, parochialism, and knowledge that travels 34:03 Intelligence, moral value, and the research on IQ 54:58 The mind is flat: perception, brains in jars, Feynman 1:21:08 Trauma, implicit memory, and the silent treatment 1:41:15 Pain, self-inflicted affliction, and the psychiatric industry 1:52:51 Evil, sadism, and the child who makes sense of abuse 2:14:50 The limits of rationality: always after the fact 2:29:57 The scientific method, religion, and the pork taboo 2:44:15 Peterson, atheism, and how to arrange society 2:51:52 The Nazi with the gun: dogmatism, fear, and dialogue

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The purpose of dialogue is to let ideas die instead of us.