Forward Guidance

Blockworks
Blockworks
  • 4.4 (262)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

  1. 5h ago

    The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup

    The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds. We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › DCP – https://x.com/Dcpcooks › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn– https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks. –https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_6xkDwJy-Ux1Ko3q8H8LmOfbVNk-tTlI/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for. one ofthe biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup

  2. Sep 18

    The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup

    What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset. We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish? 08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading 13:11 The Return Of Stagflation 21:06 Is The Fed Making A Mistake? 25:45 Can Trump Salvage Midterms? 32:35 Why AI Leaders Want Regulation 35:46 Will Europe Follow Japan? 48:45 The European Debasement Trade 59:28 Is The UK The Best Hedge? 01:05:41 Can Canada Reinvent Its Economy? FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Vincent – https://x.com/VincentDeluard › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/189_grP_F-bFABLdyh84TJA3GzOlLmIQm/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup

  3. Sep 16

    The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt

    Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling. We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed 10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade? 18:45 Ads (Token 2049, Avalanche Summit) 20:21 Could Volmageddon Happen Again? 27:16 Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive 35:35 Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free? 39:55 Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging? 42:33 Where Could Market Risk Emerge? 47:27 Can The Fed Calm Markets? 53:22 Closing Thoughts FOLLOW GUEST › X – https://x.com/Dcurnutt › LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-curnutt-4060157/ › Macro Risk Advisors – https://www.macroriskadvisors.com/ › Alpha Exchange – https://www.axpod.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › Get your TOKEN2049 tickets and 10% DISCOUNT here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt

  4. Sep 11

    The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup

    Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear. This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets. We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market? 06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%? 11:01 The Inflation-Growth Trap 18:29 Ads (TOKEN2049, Avalanche) 20:05 Will The Fed Hike? 26:08 Is One Credibility Hike Enough? 30:29 Is Economic Growth Peaking? 33:04 Can Debasement Trades Keep Running? 37:42 Is The AI Trade Breaking? 43:22 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AJwlll7otUeoen1KdtSLuJZWRTyH8o5O/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup

  5. Sep 2

    Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber

    The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural? This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction. We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken? 10:23 From QE To Fiscal Dominance 12:45 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again? 18:30 Sizing Bitcoin And Gold 23:59 Why Gold Miners Look Attractive 27:56 The Opportunity In Silver 29:53 Will Central Banks Buy Bitcoin? 32:24 Who Buys $12T Of Treasuries? 36:28 Can AI Solve The Debt Problem? 41:01 Are Bond Investors The Patsy? FOLLOW GUESTS › Matt – https://x.com/Matt_Hougan › Bitwise – https://x.com/Bitwise › Bob/Proficio – https://proficiocap.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber

  6. Aug 27

    Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup

    The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields. This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention. We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent 05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent? 08:42 Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed 13:50 Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks? 16:05 Why Yield Suppression Fuels Debasement 19:52 Ads (TOKEN2049, DAS Asia, Avalanche Summit) 21:28 Jackson Hole And Warsh’s Dilemma 27:20 America’s Term-Premium Problem 30:43 Anthropic And The AI Bubble 37:48 AI Repeats Crypto’s 2021 Playbook 42:48 Will The Government Bail Out AI? 47:03 The Debasement Endgame FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zmm4uy9nhYi3TrTaq20oyFD61Uq8anYg/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events › TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October 7–8, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for one of the biggest weeks in crypto. Get your TOKEN2049 tickets here: https://checkout.token2049.com/events/asia?promo=DASPODCAST10&utm_source=fg&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=daspodcast&utm_id=DASPODCAST › Avalanche Summit NYC lands Sept. 16–17. Save 15% with code BLOCKWORKS15: avalanchesummit.com/registration DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup

  7. Aug 20

    Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup

    Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade. This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation. We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game 12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist? 19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go? 24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets? 29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish? 33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection? 37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next? 41:25 Where Should Investors Hide? 46:12 What Comes After The AI Boom? 51:58 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dCi1wentet0JRlYXC_OX0s2QIm1qXvIW/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup

  8. Aug 12

    The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale

    Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook. We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime 06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder 14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market 20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope 29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing? 37:10 Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold 43:29 Making Institutional Tools Accessible FOLLOW DARIUS › X/Twitter – https://x.com/DariusDale42 › 42 Macro – https://42macro.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks EVENTS › Join. usat Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale
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Hosts & Guests

4.4
out of 5
262 Ratings

About

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

Information

  • Channel
    Blockworks
  • Creator
    Blockworks
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    628
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 384141 Blockworks 2021
  • Show Website
    Forward Guidance

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