Market Trends with Tracy

Saval Foodservice
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In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies. We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries about the show, email sfssocialmedia@savalfoods.comFollow us on Instagram @savalfoods or on TikTok @savalfoodservice

  1. 2d ago

    Grains in an October Slide

    BEEF Last week’s beef harvest was 484K head, seems like a holiday shortened week but it was not. Prior week was 529K head; this is keeping inventories tight.  The pattern we’ve seen the last few weeks continues. Middle meats, led by ribeyes, are moving higher still. We are already higher on middle meats than last year’s holiday season, I wonder how high they can push this market as we head to the holiday season. Chucks moving higher with the middle meats, while pretty much the rest of the beef complex continues to decline. Rounds, briskets, flank, all moving lower. I’m staying with my recommendation, stay ahead of your needs and take those declines when you can.  POULTRY Still not much movement in chicken pricing. A penny here and there, but nothing makes me think this market will be moving higher. Chicken production continues strong; demand is not really keeping up. I do expect with beef pricing so high we will see increased demand for chicken, but I don’t see it moving the market higher. Avian flu for the last week sees two new cases affecting 100K birds, mostly turkeys and ducks.  GRAINS USDA's quarterly report last week was a shocker, maybe a bit of sandbagging going on to push prices higher as the quarterly report showed over two billion bushels of corn on hand – about 35 more than last year. Corn has declined this week, closing today at $5.00 down from last week $5.30. With new crop in harvest, I’m not thinking anything will push this market higher. Soy and wheat retreated a bit, nowhere near as much as corn and the August rally in grains is turning into an October slide.  PORK Pork bellies are up from last week, today's close $93.43 – last week we were at $86.91. Anytime bellies are under $100 I take that as a buy. We may see a minor rally over the next couple weeks, but bellies will continue to be a good value; this is the time of year to see these lower markets. Butts, loins, ribs, all steady to down a few cents, pork still a great value in protein.  DAIRY Interesting week in dairy as the block continues to decline down six today.  Markets this low are not healthy for the producers, but I don’t see anything to push this market higher. Butter closed today down another two while the barrel is steady to last week. Butter is already lower than all of 2025 so another good year for baking. This is a good buyer's market now and I would expect for at least the next few weeks.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Grains in an October Slide

  2. Sep 25

    A Little Bit of Everything in Dairy

    BEEF We will start with a little good news. The Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing for live cattle reopened today and so far, no issues. The next border crossing will also be in Columbus, New Mexico; no firm date yet but I’d expect if this opening continues to go well, we should see the next one in about 30 days.  We are about to finish September with middle meats, especially ribeyes, leading the way higher. Tenderloins are following up as well. Chucks are showing some strength as chuck rolls are moving higher. Rounds continue to decline and thin meats, led by briskets, continue lower as well. We’ll be in October before you know it. Last week’s beef harvest was 529K head, up from 505 the week prior.  Inventories are still very tight. Make sure to stay ahead of your needs and take those price declines as they arrive. Shaping up to be a very interesting market heading toward the holiday season.  POULTRY Chicken production continues strong, about 2 percent above last year.  Additional good news: the hatch rate is inching up close to 80 percent, last week 79.7 percent. Chicken pricing is holding steady for another week. I really don’t see anything to push pricing higher, so I do think we’ll see these moderate prices well into October. Avian Flu continues to be an issue; last week we had 4 new cases affecting 140K turkeys.  GRAINS Grain markets are giving back just a bit from the last couple weeks' run up. Corn closed today at $5.30, down from last week‘s $5.42 but still well above that $5 benchmark. Soy and wheat are down similarly. Spring wheat harvest is about done; winter wheat planting continues. Corn and soy harvest have begun, still a bit early but I do think with new crop arriving it will help keep pricing tempered.  PORK Pork bellies closed today at $86.51 just up from last week’s close $85.48.  Anytime bellies are below $100 is time to buy. We may see a bit of a rally over the next couple weeks but I’m expecting a softer market for pork well into Q4. Butts, ribs, and loins are all a bit lower for next week as production is picking up with cooler weather.  DAIRY A little of everything on the dairy markets this week, through Thursday’s CME close, the barrel is up 1, first barrel increase since August. The block is down 6 continuing the trend, and butter had no change. Again, not much I see to push this market higher.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    A Little Bit of Everything in Dairy

  3. Sep 18

    Belly Bargain

    BEEF The tight inventories coupled with good demand is slowing this market decline. Continuing to be exempt from market declines, middle meats being led higher by ribeyes continue to move higher. Strips and tenderloins following along.  Chucks, rounds, and grinds did get the memo and are moving lower. Thin meats - briskets, flanks, sirloin flap - also finding their pricing inching down. This should continue at least to the end of the month. A little good news, a second port of entry, this one in New Mexico, is scheduled to begin allowing live cattle from Mexico starting next week. I do see heifer retention is increasing with needs to happen so the beef herd can be rebuilt. It is a three-year cycle for a calf to be harvested for beef so while it doesn’t help short term, there is relief ahead, maybe 2028. I’m keeping the same advice, stay ahead of your needs but be aware of pricing opportunities as they emerge.  POULTRY Chicken production was back up over last year by 2 percent, and pricing is steady for next week on boneless skinless random breasts, tenders, and party wings. We may see some movement higher, but I don’t expect anything to push the market up for any length of time. On the Avian flu front, another three new cases affecting 118K turkeys. I think this will continue as the weather cools and the southern migration has begun for wild birds.  GRAINS Corn closed today at $5.42, up a few pennies from last week. Harvest continues on new crop, but it is very early. Soy leveled off after the last couple weeks pushing higher but I don’t see much to push anything lower. Wheat holds for a second week with all eyes on the Black Sea and unrest there. I don’t see anything to push these markets back down.  PORK Bellies had farther down to go. Today’s close was the third day below $100 with bellies closing at $85.48. That is a big flashing “buy” sign. I was expecting this belly market to settle about $120, so I severely overestimated the demand for fall bellies. Pork production will increase as the weather cools so I’m thinking we could see these low belly prices for a bit. Butts and ribs also move a bit lower; loins are steady but already a great protein value.  DAIRY Dairy is down for the week. Through Thursday’s CME close Barrel is down 5, block and butter both down 4. With plenty of raw material I’m thinking we could see a lower dairy market well into Q4.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Belly Bargain

  4. Sep 11

    Stubborn Steaks

    BEEF We are in a post-Labor Day declining market. The exception is no one seems to have told strip loins and ribeyes. Pretty much everything in the beef complex is moving lower for next week, except ribeyes and strip loins. Demand is holding both items from moving lower. Even tenderloins are moving down for next week.  Grinds down, rounds down, chucks down. I think this should continue to the end of the month, but better values are here. Production dropped last week to 526K head, down from 542K the prior week. This week being a holiday short week will most likely finish below 500K. Even with declining prices, inventories continue to be very tight. I’d stay ahead my needs, but better prices will continue to move this market a bit lower.  POULTRY Chicken production was actually below last year for this past week. I’ve not seen that in a long while. Overall, we are still about 2% ahead of last year but expect that to shrink heading into fall. For next week, wings are getting some push from strong demand, still a good value, but they are moving higher. Boneless skinless randoms and tenderloins steady for another week. On the avian flu front, 4 new cases affecting 72K birds. As the weather begins to cool, we will most likely see these cases increase.  GRAINS Grains are holding onto all their gains from the last couple weeks. Corn continues strong; today’s close $5.36/bushel. The 2026 corn harvest has begun, only 5% complete so far, quality rating is at a crop low 56%, rated good to excellent. Still, plenty of corn to sell. Soy is holding steady with last week; the pricing is volatile based on tensions in the Middle Est and oil pricing. Wheat continues to be affected by Black Sea hostilities as Ukraine and Russia are both attacking shipping infrastructure, making shipments hazardous. Don’t expect much relief on grains right now.  PORK Bellies bounced around this week before declining again, down $1 from last week. Today’s close was $121. This is about where I expect we will be for the next few weeks. Butts are tight but pricing is steady, ribs are actually down a few pennies, and pork loins continue to be a great protein value.  DAIRY Another rather quiet week in dairy markets, still with a tilt downward. As of Thursday’s CME close, barrel is down 3, block down 1, and butter down another 4.  I don’t see anything coming to push this market higher.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Stubborn Steaks

  5. Sep 4

    Did You Hear the Pork Market Crash?

    BEEF Last week imports of live cattle from Mexico resumed from one port of entry in Arizona. That was “paused” on Tuesday this week for equipment malfunctions.  Everyone involved emphasized this is not an animal issue but an equipment issue. They expect to reopen in three days. A second crossing is scheduled to open in New Mexico in three weeks. We are heading to Labor Day weekend. I’ve been saying for weeks we need to get past Labor Day, and this market will see a good market correction lower. I do think we are on schedule to see that happen. Live cattle prices are moving lower; production continues to be tight, 542K head harvested last week, up from 523K the week prior. With next week being a holiday shortened week this slight uptick will hopefully keep sufficient inventory in the pipeline. We will see declines in rounds and chucks; middle meats seem to be holding out for another week or so, but I do expect them to come off current highs as well. Demand for ground beef continues to keep pricing up; we may see relief on ground beef in the next few weeks but right now, not in the cards. I’d stay ahead of my needs, but know better pricing is on the way.  POULTRY We’ve been seeing a gradual slowdown in chicken production over the last few weeks and that trend is continuing. From running a solid 2% over last year to now we are running almost even. I expect we will see this continue; I don’t expect to reduce further but I do think we’ll see this market tighten a bit. For next week coming out of a holiday weekend, boneless skinless randoms and tenders are holding steady another week while wings are down a few pennies. Looking at Avian flu, three new cases affecting 74K turkeys.  GRAINS We’ve been in this bear market for grains it seems like years, but things are getting interesting. Corn closed at $5.40/bushel up from last week’s $5.31 close. This year’s crop estimation is down 4% from last year at 178.7 bushels per acre at 15.8 billion bushels, while soybeans are up to $12.58/bushel and a 2026 crop estimated 7% below last year, 4.5 billion bushels. With demand for biofuels pushing all this higher and international unrest, I do think we’ll see these grain markets continue higher. Wheat is in the same condition with Black Sea exports slowed by shipping terminals being damaged in fighting. I do think this trend will continue.  PORK Did everyone hear that crash today? Today’s pork market close has bellies down $32.13 closing at $121.85. Last week’s close was $148.48. This should continue, though my target for this market was $120. I may have to modify that lower, we’ll see. The ribs and loins are holding steady. Butts are seeing strong demand but not much price movement.  DAIRY A fairly quiet week on the CME. Through Thursday’s close all categories were down a bit; barrel down 3, block is down 3 as well, while butter is down 4. I don’t see much to push this market higher.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Did You Hear the Pork Market Crash?

  6. Aug 28

    Beef Moving Up, Up, Up

    BEEF Let's start with a little good news. On Monday, the border in Arizona was opened for beef cattle. Monday had 716 head presented for inspection. 692 were approved with 24 rejected. Similar numbers on Tuesday with 634 inspected, 588 approved and 46 rejected. Estimated weekly crossing is expected to be about 3,000 head per week. Not enough to make a big change but it is progress. A second crossing will open in New Mexico in 30 days as long as Arizona goes well. The current beef market, however, is high and still moving higher. Weekly beef harvest continues restrained, 523K head last week, up from 517K the week prior.  With one more week running up to Labor Day and the end of the summer season, back to school, vacations over, I do think we will see declines in beef pricing. But we’ve got to get there. Middle meats continue to lead the way higher with ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips all strongly moving higher. Chucks and rounds moving up, too. Grinds are moving higher and we’ll wait to see if additional tariff-free imported lean beef will have any effect on pricing. I’d keep the same advice I’ve been saying for a while now. Stay ahead of your needs simply because inventories are tight, but I would not get too far ahead as I do expect a market correction after Labor Day.  POULTRY The recent pattern is done, at least for now. Wings are moving a bit lower, while boneless skinless random breasts and tenders are holding steady for the week. Production continues strong staying ahead of last year which I think should protect us from any surge in chicken moving into fall. On the avian flu beat, four new cases affecting 32K birds.  GRAINS It seems war and international unrest is good for grain prices. Corn closed today at $5.31, the highest close in three years. We flirted with $5 a few months ago; now it's here and we’ll see where this will end. Still plenty of corn and new crop coming in so will demand keep these prices up. Soy and wheat both up similarly to corn. I do expect we will see firming prices in oil and flour.  PORK Pork bellies continue to decline, today’s close $148, down from last week’s $154. I do expect this to continue to decline heading into fall. Loins, butts, ribs, minimal movement.  DAIRY Another mixed week on the CME. Through Thursday’s close, barrel is up 1, block declines again, down 5, and butter up 1. Not much to push these markets higher, plenty of raw material available.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Beef Moving Up, Up, Up

  7. Aug 21

    A Pricey Ride to Labor Day

    BEEF This beef market is pushing higher still. I’m still expecting a market correction after Labor Day, but man, getting to Labor Day is not going to be cheap. Beef harvest continues in the same quantities we’ve seen for months, 517K head last week, 509K the week prior keeps beef inventories tight. Ribeyes and tenderloins have been leading this charge higher, and I don’t see that changing. Strips are following higher but not near the increases in the rest of the middle meats. Rounds and chucks moving higher, thin meats moving higher, grinds moving higher. Did I hit all of them? With Tyson closing two beef plants and looking to sell another, beef capacity continues to shrink, reducing overhead for our new normal cattle harvest. I’d continue to stay ahead of your needs, but I do think once we get past Labor Day this market will turn.  POULTRY Chicken continues of two minds. Demand is still strong, production continues to outpace last year, but we are slowing that growth a bit. Boneless skinless random breasts and party wings continue higher. On the other hand, tenders continue to decline next week and now represent a value compared to breast meat. I think we’ll see this pattern continue into September. On the avian flu report, no new cases this week, always good to hear.  GRAINS International unrest continues to roil all the grain markets; corn closed at $4.85. About a month ago we were approaching $5/bushel, we may just get there this time. Soy closed up today over $12/bushel and wheat is moving higher as well. Nothing to make me think this bear market will change, but it is good to see some life in these markets.  PORK Pork bellies topped out last week at $166 and today they closed at $154. I do expect there is a lot more downside to bellies. Buy just what you need, better pricing is ahead. Loins, butts, ribs, all with minimal movements, makes pork a great addition to your menu.  DAIRY The CME was pretty quiet this week; through Thursday’s close barrel is up 1 while block is down 3 and butter is down 2. I’m seeing plenty of milk available, I don’t expect much movement into next month.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    A Pricey Ride to Labor Day

  8. Aug 14

    The Block is Hot

    BEEF: Last week’s harvest was 59K head. I thought the prior week of 512K was low, so let's take another step down, with packers keeping pressure on availability with less product available.  This puts our year-to-date output down 8.1%.  A pretty sizeable decline.  They seem to be pretty effective, as pricing is moving higher next week; I think we’ll continue on this ramp-up right into Labor Day.  After that, I do think we’ll see a reset on many items.  Right now, ribeyes and tenderloins are leading the market higher. Chucks and rounds are up a bit; briskets have found support moving higher. We do see some declines in flanks and sirloin flap… and ground beef is down again. I’d continue to stay ahead of your needs, but not too far out; better pricing is coming in September.    POULTRY:  Chicken is moving back up.  Up for next week: boneless skinless breasts and party wings.  Tenders, however, have another week moving lower.  Production continues strong, though I do hear we could see some lower production numbers in the last quarter.  But right now, chicken is moving out, and there is strong demand.  On the avian flu, one new case affecting 75K turkeys.  It was a good three-week run.   GRAINS:  Black Sea violence is keeping wheat prices moving higher, with two Russian grain terminals hit. Corn is moving up a bit, with the close today at $4.69/bushel, up from last week's $4.51.  Soy is trending about the same as last week. I was hoping we’d see continued declines, but it looks like we are at the bottom of this market, at least for now.  Grains will continue to be a strength for our domestic market.    PORK:  Pork bellies should be about topped out here, with today’s close of $166 up from last week's $164.  The next move should be lower; it's just how quickly this decline will go.  The rest of the pork complex is moving a few pennies down on butts, loins, and ribs.    DAIRY  Another split on the dairy markets, today’s CME close had the barrel down 1, but block ticks up 6.  Butter declines 2.  I don't see much that should be pushing this market higher, so we’ll see where this goes.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    The Block is Hot
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
4 Ratings

About

In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies. We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries about the show, email sfssocialmedia@savalfoods.comFollow us on Instagram @savalfoods or on TikTok @savalfoodservice

Information

  • Creator
    Saval Foodservice
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    244
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Saval Foods LLC
  • Show Website
    Market Trends with Tracy