Market Trends with Tracy

Saval Foodservice
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In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies. We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries about the show, email sfssocialmedia@savalfoods.comFollow us on Instagram @savalfoods or on TikTok @savalfoodservice

  1. 3d ago

    No More Dairy Scaries

    DAIRY Two weeks of the dairy markets rocking higher, and we’re done with that.  Through Thursday’s close, block is holding steady, barrel is up two, and butter took a decline by five. We’ll see what’s next, but we should have a fairly steady market heading into November.  BEEF Beef production continues in the same basic range we've been in for months. 546K head harvested last week, just down from the prior week of 553K head. This week, a third crossing from Mexico was opened for live animals. A fourth crossing is expected to open the end of November. The New World screw worm continues to be detected every week; this last week the first detection of an elk at a big game hunting ranch and a domestic cat, in addition to cattle, goats, and sheep. We finish October on a steady decline for most items; turning to November and the holiday season I do think we’ll see middle meats, ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins take this market higher, possibly higher than we’ve ever seen. Thin meats, brisket, sirloin flap, flank steak, all continue lower and I think we’re about to the bottom of this run, so though I don’t expect pricing to jump, I do expect we’ve about hit bottom on a few cuts. I’d stay ahead of my needs; inventories no matter the cost, are tight.  POULTRY Last week we saw our first million-bird Avian flu case for the first time since last spring. This week we see that move up to 1.4 million birds affected by Avian flu; 1.3 million of those cases are egg laying hens. Looking at fresh chicken, party wings are getting support, moving higher next week. Boneless skinless random breasts and tenders are holding steady for next week. While production is still up over last year, that margin is shrinking a bit trying to get pricing higher. I don’t expect the bottom to fall out of chicken pricing, but other than wings, I'm not sure I see much upside for the short term.   GRAINS The 2026 corn harvest is now about 60 percent complete. 56 percent of the harvest is rated good to excellent; 18 percent is rated poor to very poor.  Pricing is a few pennies up from last week, but still well below $5 a bushel. I don’t expect much movement in corn pricing. The 2026 soy crop is 79 percent done with an average 53.1 bushels per acre. Pricing is steady for the week. Wheat is moving lower; export demand is backing down and there have been some successful shipments through the Black Sea. For now, grains are in a good place.  PORK There were a few articles this week about over supply of pork and lack of demand. We’ve been seeing that with the soft pricing the last few weeks. Today bellies closed at $65.69. The pandemic of 2020 had markets lower, but other than Covid, this market compares to pricing from 2015. Butts, ribs, and loins are a great protein value.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    No More Dairy Scaries

  2. Oct 23

    Avian Flu Season

    DAIRY Last week the block market went off, jumping up $.19/# by the CME close on Friday. This week, not letting up with the block up $.20/# through Thursday’s close. Now the barrel is joining block, up $.19/# with today’s close while butter is up a respectable $.04/#. When markets rocket up like this, they usually stall pretty quickly, so while we do have to deal with these big increases, I think it will be done fairly soon. Demand for export and tightening inventories are what is pushing this market right now.  BEEF Beef harvest last week was 553K head, up from the prior week of 535K. This week, we're finally seeing these prices pause and actually a couple things moving lower, which is a welcome change. Middle meats, led by ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins, are all pausing their walk higher every week, even down a few pennies.  Thin meats, think briskets, flank, and sirloin flap, still have a bit more room to decline, I think. Rounds and chucks seem to be settled for now. Grinds are steady as well, but I do think we could see grinds picking up steam as we head into November. We will have a third entry point for cattle from Mexico scheduled to open next week with a fourth expected in about a month. That is all good news for available cattle. Inventories continue to be tight, so stay ahead of your needs and take the declines when you are ready.  POULTRY The big news this week in poultry is the Avian Flu tally for the last week.  Six new cases were reported, affecting about 1 million egg laying chickens. Cooler weather and wild bird migration are factors for increased Avian Flu cases. Looking at fresh chicken, demand for boneless skinless random breasts is pushing prices lower; wings and tenders are holding steady, but I do think we could see continued softness in chicken pricing. Chicken producers have been pushing production higher, and it might just have finally caught up with them.  GRAINS Corn continued to decline; today’s close was $4.65, down from last week’s $4.79. Soy and wheat are falling in behind the corn with similar declines.  With a big corn and soy crop in harvest, moving inventory becomes more important than the price. Biofuels will continue to play an important role in keeping grains moving.  PORK Pork pricing is soft, demand is soft, making a great opportunity to present great values. Today’s belly close of $84.59 is just up from last week’s close of $83.33; we're still well under $100 which makes bellies - and bacon - a great buy.  Butts, loins, and ribs are all holding steady for the next week; pork is a great protein value.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Avian Flu Season

  3. Oct 16

    Dairy is Rocking Higher

    DAIRY Last week just a minor sign this market is about at bottom. This week, dairy is rocking higher. Through Thursday’s close, butter finally gets on track up two, barrel is up three, while block, the driver of natural cheese costs, is up a whopping 16 cents. Exports are helping here and demand is finally pushing up. Let's keep an eye on this, it's been a while since the cheese market was rocking higher.  BEEF I look at the pricing on middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips, and we are already higher than last year’s holiday season. How high can they push this market this year? One analyst I follow thinks these high prices will push consumers to other cuts or even other proteins as this market is getting pretty rich. We’ll watch and see how this goes. In the immediate market we continue to see declines in thin meats, briskets, flanks, and sirloin flap, while chucks are holding steady to move a bit higher. Rounds seems to have found their current bottom, so I’d expect to see that move higher soon. Grinds are showing upside as well. We had 531K head harvested last week, down from 548k the week prior. I do expect we will stay in the 525-540k per week at least for the next few weeks. Stay ahead of your needs; inventories continue to be tight.  POULTRY Chicken pricing is steady to down slightly. Boneless skinless random breasts do have some weakness and lower pricing on the way. Tenders and party wings are steady but at these levels, steady is a pretty good deal. We are coming up on eight billion chickens processed in 2026, showing chicken to be the value in protein.  GRAINS Grains, or I should say just corn, could not hold onto recent increases.  Just too much product plus new crop coming in. Today’s close is back under $5 to $4.79. Good news for everyone but farmers. Soy is down marginally – with high diesel and gas prices, soy will continue to have demand in biofuels. The Russian wheat crop was reduced in size, pushing wheat prices higher toward the end of the week.  PORK Pork continues to be a great value in protein. Pork Bellies closed today at $83.33 just up from last week's close of $82.46. Again, anytime bellies are under $100, that is a flashing buy sign to me. Loins are trading about as low as we’ve seen all year, butts and ribs holding steady. Great time to menu pork.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Dairy is Rocking Higher

  4. Oct 9

    Waiting for Beef Relief

    BEEF Beef harvest rebounded last week up to 548K head, compared to the prior week of 484K head. Still running well behind last year. With continually larger animals being harvested, we are down on weight by 5.2 percent and down by number of animals harvested by 7.5 percent. While we do see signs of herd rebuilding, that relief is well into 2028 before we would see any sizable increases in herd availability. We are heading toward the holiday season; already middle meats, led by ribeyes, are moving up every week. Tenderloins are showing strength, too. As is usual with the holidays, I expect strip loins will move up modestly – especially compared the other middle meats, making them a good holiday value. Chucks continue to show strength as well; rounds have been on the decline, but I think we are about at the bottom of that run. Grinds are moving higher. Thin meats, think briskets, flank, sirloin flap, all down again or finding a much lower price point than we’ve seen the past few months. Stay ahead of your needs, inventories are tight.  POULTRY Chicken production continues strong; I do think we will see some minor price declines - don’t expect anything big - but production is outpacing demand right now. We might see a surge in wing pricing, but it will be minor, if it comes at all. As far as avian flu, four new cases affecting 100K birds, mostly turkeys. Over two million turkeys have been culled in 2026 due to avian flu, and we’ve got a couple months to go.  GRAINS Grains overall are holding steady to last week's pricing. Corn closed today at $5.01, last week closed at $5.00, soy today closed at $12.64, last week closed at $12.57, and wheat closed at $6.59, up from last week’s close at $6.33. Still not much to make me think these are poised to move higher. Harvest is ramping up for corn and soy. Biofuels could push these higher, but I think that demand is already baked into the price.  PORK Pork bellies are heading lower still. Today’s close was $82.46 compared to last Thursday at $93.43. This makes it time to buy. Pork continues to be a great protein value, and now with bacon. Loins continue to decline a few pennies; butts and ribs holding steady for now.  DAIRY For the first time since the first week of August, the block market is up. Through Thursday's close the block is up four, barrel has no change, and butter declines another five. I still don’t see anything to push this market; inventories and raw material are plentiful.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Waiting for Beef Relief

  5. Oct 2

    Grains in an October Slide

    BEEF Last week’s beef harvest was 484K head, seems like a holiday shortened week but it was not. Prior week was 529K head; this is keeping inventories tight.  The pattern we’ve seen the last few weeks continues. Middle meats, led by ribeyes, are moving higher still. We are already higher on middle meats than last year’s holiday season, I wonder how high they can push this market as we head to the holiday season. Chucks moving higher with the middle meats, while pretty much the rest of the beef complex continues to decline. Rounds, briskets, flank, all moving lower. I’m staying with my recommendation, stay ahead of your needs and take those declines when you can.  POULTRY Still not much movement in chicken pricing. A penny here and there, but nothing makes me think this market will be moving higher. Chicken production continues strong; demand is not really keeping up. I do expect with beef pricing so high we will see increased demand for chicken, but I don’t see it moving the market higher. Avian flu for the last week sees two new cases affecting 100K birds, mostly turkeys and ducks.  GRAINS USDA's quarterly report last week was a shocker, maybe a bit of sandbagging going on to push prices higher as the quarterly report showed over two billion bushels of corn on hand – about 35 more than last year. Corn has declined this week, closing today at $5.00 down from last week $5.30. With new crop in harvest, I’m not thinking anything will push this market higher. Soy and wheat retreated a bit, nowhere near as much as corn and the August rally in grains is turning into an October slide.  PORK Pork bellies are up from last week, today's close $93.43 – last week we were at $86.91. Anytime bellies are under $100 I take that as a buy. We may see a minor rally over the next couple weeks, but bellies will continue to be a good value; this is the time of year to see these lower markets. Butts, loins, ribs, all steady to down a few cents, pork still a great value in protein.  DAIRY Interesting week in dairy as the block continues to decline down six today.  Markets this low are not healthy for the producers, but I don’t see anything to push this market higher. Butter closed today down another two while the barrel is steady to last week. Butter is already lower than all of 2025 so another good year for baking. This is a good buyer's market now and I would expect for at least the next few weeks.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Grains in an October Slide

  6. Sep 25

    A Little Bit of Everything in Dairy

    BEEF We will start with a little good news. The Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing for live cattle reopened today and so far, no issues. The next border crossing will also be in Columbus, New Mexico; no firm date yet but I’d expect if this opening continues to go well, we should see the next one in about 30 days.  We are about to finish September with middle meats, especially ribeyes, leading the way higher. Tenderloins are following up as well. Chucks are showing some strength as chuck rolls are moving higher. Rounds continue to decline and thin meats, led by briskets, continue lower as well. We’ll be in October before you know it. Last week’s beef harvest was 529K head, up from 505 the week prior.  Inventories are still very tight. Make sure to stay ahead of your needs and take those price declines as they arrive. Shaping up to be a very interesting market heading toward the holiday season.  POULTRY Chicken production continues strong, about 2 percent above last year.  Additional good news: the hatch rate is inching up close to 80 percent, last week 79.7 percent. Chicken pricing is holding steady for another week. I really don’t see anything to push pricing higher, so I do think we’ll see these moderate prices well into October. Avian Flu continues to be an issue; last week we had 4 new cases affecting 140K turkeys.  GRAINS Grain markets are giving back just a bit from the last couple weeks' run up. Corn closed today at $5.30, down from last week‘s $5.42 but still well above that $5 benchmark. Soy and wheat are down similarly. Spring wheat harvest is about done; winter wheat planting continues. Corn and soy harvest have begun, still a bit early but I do think with new crop arriving it will help keep pricing tempered.  PORK Pork bellies closed today at $86.51 just up from last week’s close $85.48.  Anytime bellies are below $100 is time to buy. We may see a bit of a rally over the next couple weeks but I’m expecting a softer market for pork well into Q4. Butts, ribs, and loins are all a bit lower for next week as production is picking up with cooler weather.  DAIRY A little of everything on the dairy markets this week, through Thursday’s CME close, the barrel is up 1, first barrel increase since August. The block is down 6 continuing the trend, and butter had no change. Again, not much I see to push this market higher.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    A Little Bit of Everything in Dairy

  7. Sep 18

    Belly Bargain

    BEEF The tight inventories coupled with good demand is slowing this market decline. Continuing to be exempt from market declines, middle meats being led higher by ribeyes continue to move higher. Strips and tenderloins following along.  Chucks, rounds, and grinds did get the memo and are moving lower. Thin meats - briskets, flanks, sirloin flap - also finding their pricing inching down. This should continue at least to the end of the month. A little good news, a second port of entry, this one in New Mexico, is scheduled to begin allowing live cattle from Mexico starting next week. I do see heifer retention is increasing with needs to happen so the beef herd can be rebuilt. It is a three-year cycle for a calf to be harvested for beef so while it doesn’t help short term, there is relief ahead, maybe 2028. I’m keeping the same advice, stay ahead of your needs but be aware of pricing opportunities as they emerge.  POULTRY Chicken production was back up over last year by 2 percent, and pricing is steady for next week on boneless skinless random breasts, tenders, and party wings. We may see some movement higher, but I don’t expect anything to push the market up for any length of time. On the Avian flu front, another three new cases affecting 118K turkeys. I think this will continue as the weather cools and the southern migration has begun for wild birds.  GRAINS Corn closed today at $5.42, up a few pennies from last week. Harvest continues on new crop, but it is very early. Soy leveled off after the last couple weeks pushing higher but I don’t see much to push anything lower. Wheat holds for a second week with all eyes on the Black Sea and unrest there. I don’t see anything to push these markets back down.  PORK Bellies had farther down to go. Today’s close was the third day below $100 with bellies closing at $85.48. That is a big flashing “buy” sign. I was expecting this belly market to settle about $120, so I severely overestimated the demand for fall bellies. Pork production will increase as the weather cools so I’m thinking we could see these low belly prices for a bit. Butts and ribs also move a bit lower; loins are steady but already a great protein value.  DAIRY Dairy is down for the week. Through Thursday’s CME close Barrel is down 5, block and butter both down 4. With plenty of raw material I’m thinking we could see a lower dairy market well into Q4.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Belly Bargain

  8. Sep 11

    Stubborn Steaks

    BEEF We are in a post-Labor Day declining market. The exception is no one seems to have told strip loins and ribeyes. Pretty much everything in the beef complex is moving lower for next week, except ribeyes and strip loins. Demand is holding both items from moving lower. Even tenderloins are moving down for next week.  Grinds down, rounds down, chucks down. I think this should continue to the end of the month, but better values are here. Production dropped last week to 526K head, down from 542K the prior week. This week being a holiday short week will most likely finish below 500K. Even with declining prices, inventories continue to be very tight. I’d stay ahead my needs, but better prices will continue to move this market a bit lower.  POULTRY Chicken production was actually below last year for this past week. I’ve not seen that in a long while. Overall, we are still about 2% ahead of last year but expect that to shrink heading into fall. For next week, wings are getting some push from strong demand, still a good value, but they are moving higher. Boneless skinless randoms and tenderloins steady for another week. On the avian flu front, 4 new cases affecting 72K birds. As the weather begins to cool, we will most likely see these cases increase.  GRAINS Grains are holding onto all their gains from the last couple weeks. Corn continues strong; today’s close $5.36/bushel. The 2026 corn harvest has begun, only 5% complete so far, quality rating is at a crop low 56%, rated good to excellent. Still, plenty of corn to sell. Soy is holding steady with last week; the pricing is volatile based on tensions in the Middle Est and oil pricing. Wheat continues to be affected by Black Sea hostilities as Ukraine and Russia are both attacking shipping infrastructure, making shipments hazardous. Don’t expect much relief on grains right now.  PORK Bellies bounced around this week before declining again, down $1 from last week. Today’s close was $121. This is about where I expect we will be for the next few weeks. Butts are tight but pricing is steady, ribs are actually down a few pennies, and pork loins continue to be a great protein value.  DAIRY Another rather quiet week in dairy markets, still with a tilt downward. As of Thursday’s CME close, barrel is down 3, block down 1, and butter down another 4.  I don’t see anything coming to push this market higher.  Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

    Stubborn Steaks
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
4 Ratings

About

In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies. We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries about the show, email sfssocialmedia@savalfoods.comFollow us on Instagram @savalfoods or on TikTok @savalfoodservice

Information

  • Creator
    Saval Foodservice
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    248
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Saval Foods LLC
  • Show Website
    Market Trends with Tracy

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