The Journeyman: Unfiltered

Marlon Weems
  • 5.0 (3)
  • Society & Culture

Former Wall Street pro Marlon Weems gives his insights on the intersection of politics, the economy, and anti-Black racism. thejourneyman.substack.com

  1. Sep 25

    Sports Is Never Just a Game

    Guest: Tanya Ray FoxShow: The Journeyman UnfilteredRuntime: Approximately 56 minutes Episode Summary Sports journalist and cultural commentator Tanya Ray Fox joined Marlon Weems for a candid conversation about what sports reveal about race, power, media, and money in America. Drawing on 16 years in mainstream sports media—including work at NFL Network, USA Today, and F… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thejourneyman.substack.com/subscribe

    Sports Is Never Just a Game

  2. Sep 25

    The Economy Is Strong. So Why Does It Feel So Bad?

    Show: The Reality CheckHosts: Marlon Weems and Egberto WilliesGuest: Kathryn Anne EdwardsAir Date: September 16, 2026 The Conversation Economist Kathryn Anne Edwards joined Marlon Weems and Egberto Willies for an unusually wide-ranging edition of The Reality Check—one that began with a question about whether Americans can trust government economic statistics and eventually covered inflation, tariffs, worker power, capitalism, healthcare, and Social Security. The central tension running through the conversation was simple: How can economic data show relative strength while millions of people feel so economically insecure? Edwards argued that those two realities can coexist. The deterioration in the labor market since 2022 has been significant, she said, but it began from an exceptionally strong starting point. Meanwhile, slower wage growth, weaker hiring, low quit rates, rising debt, and difficulty affording basic necessities are all evident in established economic data. Her point: people often aren’t rejecting the numbers—they’re rejecting interpretations of those numbers that seem inconsistent with their own lives. About Kathryn Anne Edwards Edwards is a labor economist, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and co-host of the Optimist Economy podcast. Her work focuses on labor markets, inequality, Social Security, and the economic policies that shape the distribution of gains. Key Themes Can we trust the economic numbers?Marlon raised a question he has encountered repeatedly: distrust of the Trump administration has led some people to assume inconvenient employment data must be manipulated. Edwards pushed back on that framing, arguing that the hardship people are experiencing is already visible in the data. The disagreement, she suggested, is often over what economists conclude from those numbers—not whether the numbers themselves exist. The remarkable labor market of 2022—and what happened afterward.Edwards described the summer of 2022 as an exceptional period for American workers, citing unemployment, job switching, hiring, and wage growth. The irony was that the same period coincided with peak inflation, making the strength of the labor market much harder for households to appreciate. Inflation was never one simple story.Rather than assigning the post-pandemic inflation surge to a single president or policy, Edwards described a collision of supply shocks and demand shocks: reopening after COVID, disrupted supply chains, consumers eager to spend after lockdowns, and later shocks involving oil, food, and the war in Ukraine. Where did workers’ share of the economy go?One of the sharpest sections of the conversation came when Marlon introduced a chart showing labor’s declining share of national income. Edwards explained that demographics and changing forms of compensation account for part of the decline—but said the larger story is the erosion of workers’ bargaining power, labor protections, and union strength. Capitalism: feature or bug?Egberto challenged Edwards on whether recurring economic crises and extreme concentrations of wealth are defects in capitalism or inherent features. Edwards defended markets as powerful engines of wealth creation and innovation, while arguing that they require regulation and redistribution to prevent wealth from becoming excessively concentrated. America accidentally built its healthcare system.Edwards offered a fascinating history of employer-sponsored health insurance: rather than being deliberately designed by Congress, it evolved through wartime wage controls, collective bargaining, and tax policy. Her larger argument was that tying health insurance to employment created structural problems that decades of subsequent reforms have attempted to patch. The Journeyman is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Social Security Isn’t “Going Broke” The conversation closed with one of Edwards’ specialties: Social Security. She stressed that depletion of the trust fund would not mean Social Security disappears. Under current law, it would instead trigger an automatic reduction in benefits because ongoing payroll taxes would continue funding most obligations. Her more surprising argument concerned inequality. When Social Security was reformed in 1983, actuaries did a remarkably good job forecasting demographics—but badly underestimated how dramatically wage growth would concentrate above the taxable earnings cap. Edwards said Social Security once taxed roughly 90% of U.S. wages; today that figure is closer to 82%. That makes raising or eliminating the payroll-tax cap particularly consequential. Edwards described it as by far the largest available revenue option for strengthening the program—much more powerful than increasing the retirement age. Notable Moments 07:22 — Can Americans trust the economic numbers?15:22 — Why Edwards calls 2022 an extraordinary labor market18:03 — What actually caused the post-pandemic inflation surge27:06 — Egberto asks whether capitalism itself is the problem35:19 — Why labor’s share of national income has fallen41:27 — How America backed into employer-sponsored health insurance53:34 — Edwards previews her book, The Economy We Want and How to Get There55:15 — Social Security: what “trust fund depletion” actually means59:55 — How wage inequality weakened Social Security’s finances Why This Conversation Matters What made this episode work was that it never stayed within a single economic silo. Jobs led to inflation. Inflation led to the Fed. Labor led to inequality. Inequality led to healthcare and Social Security. And underneath it all was a question that increasingly defines American economic politics: Are the numbers wrong—or are we asking them to tell us something they were never designed to measure? Edwards’ answer was essentially that the statistics contain far more evidence of Americans’ economic pain than people realize. The challenge is interpreting them without confusing an aggregate economy with the experience of any individual household. From The Journeyman Archives Don’t Worry About Trump Tweaking Economic Numbers. Yet. — The earlier Journeyman essay that directly anticipates Marlon’s opening question to Edwards about whether distrust of an administration is evidence that government statistics are fabricated. The Great Disconnect: A Fault Lines Snapshot — On the disconnect between a labor market that can appear stable in aggregate and consumers who already feel as though they are living through a recession. Housing, Inflation, AI, and the New Economy — Marlon’s conversation with economist Daryl Fairweather on housing affordability, inflation, labor markets, and the forces squeezing households. The Journeyman is an independent, reader-supported media outlet. If conversations like this are useful to you, consider subscribing—and supporting the work with a paid subscription. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thejourneyman.substack.com/subscribe

    The Economy Is Strong. So Why Does It Feel So Bad?

  3. Aug 29

    Propaganda, Power, and the New Scramble for Latin America

    Hosts: Marlon Weems and Arturo DomínguezRuntime: Approximately 70 minutes Episode Summary Marlon Weems and Arturo Domínguez examine how a sophisticated political disinformation network, allegedly operating from Miami, has influenced elections and destabilized governments across Latin America. Drawing on Arturo’s recent investigative reporting, they trace connections among digital propaganda platforms, troll farms, lobbyists, Trump associates, U.S. officials, and right-wing political movements from Argentina and Bolivia to Brazil, Mexico, Cuba, and Venezuela. The conversation then turns to America’s expanding control over Venezuelan oil. Marlon and Arturo argue that recent developments make earlier U.S. claims about protecting the region from drugs and authoritarianism look increasingly like pretexts for gaining access to Venezuela’s natural resources. News that Venezuela may consider leaving OPEC, alongside reports of a major oil deal with the United States, only deepens their suspicions. They also discuss voting restrictions, ICE enforcement, Democratic fundraising priorities, Trump’s cultlike political protection, rising food prices, tariffs, Florida politics, and a federal judge’s decision to strike down Texas’s drag-performance ban. If you value independent reporting that connects the dots before the rest of the media catches up, support The Journeyman. This work requires time, research, and a willingness to follow the evidence wherever it leads. Become a paid subscriber to help me keep doing it. Key Topics * A Miami-based disinformation network: Arturo details an alleged network connecting Latin American political operatives, bot farms, troll farms, U.S. lobbyists, and Trump-connected strategist Brad Parscale. * The attempted killing that exposed the operation: A journalist who survived being shot reportedly began identifying people involved in the network and linking them to election interference and political influence across several countries. * Cambridge Analytica’s technological descendants: Arturo explains how platforms including Campaign Nucleus and EyesOver allegedly adapted the Cambridge Analytica model for real-time voter targeting, narrative manipulation, and election activity. * Election interference across Latin America: The hosts discuss the network’s reported involvement in the elections or political movements surrounding Javier Milei, Jair Bolsonaro, José Antonio Kast, Rodrigo Paz, Nayib Bukele, and others. * U.S. connections: Arturo traces reported relationships involving lobbyists, foreign-agent filings, Marco Rubio’s former staff, Florida lawmakers, the State Department, the White House, and longtime Latin America policy figures associated with previous Republican administrations. * Venezuela’s oil: Marlon and Arturo connect current U.S. oil arrangements to their earlier warnings that Washington’s intervention in Venezuela was driven by resource control as much as—or more than—democracy, narcotics, or national security. * The possibility of Venezuelan resistance: Arturo warns that surrendering control of oil reserves or rolling back constitutional protections for Black and Indigenous Venezuelans could provoke organized resistance and further destabilize the region. * The wider energy crisis: Marlon discusses Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure and explains why the emerging threat is no longer simply an oil shortage but a disruption in diesel and other refined products essential to agriculture, transportation, and global commerce. * Transgender athletes and policy contradictions: Arturo describes a Texas case in which a transgender boy taking testosterone was required to wrestle against girls because state law classified athletes according to sex assigned at birth. * Voting restrictions: The hosts discuss faulty mail-ballot paperwork in Texas, broader attempts to make voting more difficult, and Marlon’s belief that some of these measures may provoke a backlash. * ICE and Republican “law and order” politics: Arturo criticizes Texas officials for refusing to extradite an ICE agent wanted in Minnesota and argues that protecting government agents from accountability undermines Republican law-and-order messaging. * Democratic fundraising priorities: Marlon questions national Democratic organizations’ focus on a narrow group of establishment candidates while overlooking candidates such as Angie Nixon and other emerging progressive and minority voices. * Florida’s political climate: The hosts discuss Ashley Moody, the controversy surrounding $10 million connected to the Hope Florida Foundation, the cost-of-living crisis, and Republican lawmakers’ belated response to ICE detentions affecting Cuban families. * Economic pain beneath Trump support: Arturo recounts overhearing East Texas business owners describe fertilizer shortages, reduced crop yields, and tariff-related manufacturing costs—without directly connecting those problems to Trump’s policies. * Texas drag ban overturned: The episode closes on a positive note with a federal judge’s decision to strike down Texas’s drag-performance restrictions. Marlon and Arturo argue that people should leave others alone and let them live freely. Notable Moments * 00:04:00 — “Quantum of Solace” meets real life: Marlon compares the emerging Latin American story to the James Bond film’s plot about a private network destabilizing governments to seize control of natural resources. * 00:07:00 — The disinformation network: Arturo begins unpacking the attempted assassination, bot farms, foreign-agent connections, and digital platforms at the center of his investigation. * 00:11:25 — From Cambridge Analytica to Campaign Nucleus: Arturo explains how newer political technology grew from the infrastructure and methods exposed after the 2016 election. * 00:16:45 — Why American audiences have heard so little: The hosts contrast extensive Latin American coverage of the scandal with its near absence from U.S. corporate media. * 00:24:25 — The network leads back to Venezuela: Arturo connects people in his investigation to the officials managing America’s current Venezuelan oil policy. * 00:29:25 — Texas’s transgender-sports contradiction: A law intended to keep transgender athletes out of competitions aligned with their gender identity produces precisely the outcome its supporters claimed to fear. * 00:32:00 — Mail-ballot problems: Arturo describes Texas voters receiving forms that apparently do not provide enough space for their complete driver’s-license numbers. * 00:34:00 — Where Democratic money goes: Marlon challenges the national party’s fundraising machinery and its continued preference for a familiar group of establishment candidates. * 00:38:30 — “The oil shock isn’t about oil anymore”: Marlon explains how attacks on refineries shift the danger from crude-oil availability to shortages of diesel and other essential refined products. * 00:40:00 — Venezuela and OPEC: Breaking news that Venezuela may consider leaving OPEC arrives during the conversation, reinforcing the hosts’ concerns about U.S. influence over the country’s oil policy. * 00:45:00 — Trump, Epstein, and the politics of victimhood: The hosts discuss the willingness of Trump supporters to interpret investigations and criminal allegations as proof that he is being persecuted. * 00:51:00 — The economic consequences people will not name: Arturo recounts hearing farmers and manufacturers complain about costs, tariffs, fertilizer, and lower yields while avoiding any criticism of Trump. * 00:53:00 — Florida’s changing electorate: The discussion turns to Angie Nixon, Ashley Moody, Cuban voters, ICE enforcement, affordability, and the political dangers facing Florida Republicans. * 01:01:00 — Texas’s drag ban falls: Marlon and Arturo welcome the court ruling and trade personal stories about drag shows, gay clubs, and the basic principle of leaving people alone. * 01:06:00 — Upcoming projects: Marlon previews a subscriber-only livestream explaining private equity, while Arturo discusses his proposed book, Blue Privilege, about institutional protections for police, ICE, and other law-enforcement agencies. Memorable Quotes “That headline right there explains why so many people in Latin America do not want the United States in their country.” “They are literally doing the same thing they did in the ’80s and ’90s right now.” “White nationalism domestically is the same thing that drives the white nationalism in our foreign policy.” “This is not about oil anymore.” “The first time’s a mistake, but then when you elect the guy again, it’s intentional.” “There used to be a day where you just left people alone. Just leave people alone.” This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thejourneyman.substack.com/subscribe

    Propaganda, Power, and the New Scramble for Latin America

  4. Aug 22

    The Journeyman Unfiltered: Greg Thomas — Breaking Barriers, Making Believers, and Who Gets Remembered

    In this edition of The Journeyman Unfiltered, Marlon Weems sits down with Greg Thomas, the first Black starting quarterback in University of Arkansas history and author of No Doubting Thomas: The Hawg Whisperer and #Making Believers. What begins as a conversation about Razorback football develops into a much broader discussion about race, opportunity, institutional memory, and what it meant to break barriers in Arkansas only a generation ago. The Conversation Thomas recounts arriving in Arkansas from San Angelo, Texas, in 1984 without fully understanding the racial significance of the position he was about to occupy. His own father had reservations about him attending Arkansas, fearing that Greg’s unwillingness to back down from racial hostility could put him in danger. Thomas describes fighting his way up a crowded quarterback depth chart by volunteering for scout-team work and performing well enough against Arkansas’s first-team defense to attract attention. Legendary Texas sportswriter Blackie Sherrod sought him out and, rather than beginning with football, asked the 18-year-old Thomas how people in Arkansas were treating him. Sherrod warned him that becoming Arkansas’s first Black starting quarterback would bring resistance that winning alone wouldn’t necessarily overcome. Thomas says those warnings proved prescient. He recalls boos, hostile letters and phone calls, and resistance surrounding the prospect of a Black quarterback becoming the face of Razorback football. He also discusses his complicated relationships with head coach Ken Hatfield and legendary athletic director Frank Broyles, including learning through ESPN that he had been benched for a bowl game rather than hearing it directly from his coach. A Record That Deserves Another Look Thomas’s accomplishments provide one of the interview’s most striking threads. As Arkansas’s starting quarterback from 1985 through 1987, he describes three consecutive 9–2 regular seasons and three consecutive bowl appearances, including the Orange Bowl. He argues that his record as a winner compares favorably with virtually any quarterback in Razorback history. Yet Thomas says he has never even been placed on the ballot for Arkansas’s Hall of Honor. Rather than simply complaining about the omission, Thomas connects it to a larger question: Who gets recognized when institutions write their own history? He believes speaking candidly about the racial realities surrounding his career may have complicated his relationship with the institution decades later. The Mosaic Templars Connection The conversation takes an unexpected turn when Thomas describes approaching Little Rock’s Mosaic Templars Cultural Center, Arkansas’s museum of African American history, about possibly participating in a book signing or other programming. He says he visited, provided a copy of his book, expressed his interest—and never heard back. That story prompts Weems to describe an almost eerily similar experience. After discovering that his own role in founding Arkansas’s first Black-owned investment banking and brokerage firm was absent from the state’s historical narrative, Weems contacted Mosaic Templars. Initial conversations were enthusiastic and included talk of programming and a Zoom meeting. Then communication simply stopped. The parallel leaves both men wondering whether there are parts of Arkansas’s Black history that institutions are more comfortable telling than others. From “No Doubting Thomas” to “#Making Believers” Thomas also discusses his second book, #Making Believers, written from his perspective as an assistant basketball coach with 25 years of experience. It chronicles a Texas high-school basketball team’s extraordinary 40–0 state championship season and the 14 players and five coaches who transformed the heartbreak of their junior season into an undefeated championship run. Thomas says the book has already received 15 literary awards and could earn several more. He is also exploring film and screenplay opportunities while carefully protecting his rights and maintaining control over how the story is told. His first book, No Doubting Thomas, is also serving as the foundation for a documentary examining his experience at Arkansas and the racial history surrounding it. Thomas makes clear that the film will confront subjects he might have been reluctant to discuss when he was younger. Notable Moments 05:45 — Thomas notes that only one Black quarterback preceded him at Arkansas at all, Martin Lamont, and that seven years passed before Thomas arrived. 11:40 — Thomas reveals that his father initially opposed his attending Arkansas because he feared for his son’s safety. 24:40 — Thomas explains how volunteering for scout-team duty helped transform him from an overlooked freshman into a serious quarterback prospect. 29:20 — Blackie Sherrod’s first question to the 18-year-old Thomas isn’t about football: “How are the people treating you?” 31:00 — Thomas begins describing the racial resistance surrounding his emergence as Arkansas’s quarterback. 34:40 — He recounts discovering from his brother—and then watching it himself on ESPN—that he had been benched for the Holiday Bowl. 38:35 — Thomas describes hearing boos and receiving hostile letters and phone calls when he entered games. 43:00 — Thomas lays out his winning record and explains his frustration at never receiving Hall of Honor recognition. 44:40 — The conversation turns to Mosaic Templars, where Thomas and Weems discover the remarkable similarity between their experiences trying to get their respective stories recognized. 50:35 — Thomas discusses #Making Believers, the undefeated 40–0 championship team, its 15 literary awards, and potential film adaptation. The Bottom Line This ultimately isn’t a football interview. It’s a conversation between two University of Arkansas alumni whose careers took very different paths but who share the experience of breaking barriers in a state that wasn’t always prepared for them. Thomas did it at quarterback. Weems later did it in Arkansas finance. Perhaps the most provocative question emerging from the conversation isn’t about what either man accomplished. It’s who gets remembered—and who gets to decide. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thejourneyman.substack.com/subscribe

    The Journeyman Unfiltered: Greg Thomas — Breaking Barriers, Making Believers, and Who Gets Remembered

  5. Aug 8

    Citizens Arrest with Shari Dunn & Marlon Weems

    The Democratic Party’s post-2024 autopsy. The politics of fear. AI and the future of writing. And why messaging—not policy—may be deciding American elections. On this episode of Citizens’ Arrest, Marlon Weems and cohost Shari Dunn tackle one of the most consequential questions facing Democrats: what did the party actually learn from its 2024 defeat? The conversation begins wit… This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thejourneyman.substack.com/subscribe

    Citizens Arrest with Shari Dunn & Marlon Weems

  6. Aug 5

    Primary Election Results: Winners, Losers & What Happens Next

    In this extended edition of The Reality Check, Marlon Weems and Egberto Willies unpack the political and economic implications of Tuesday night’s primary elections, arguing that the results reveal a Democratic Party increasingly driven by grassroots populism rather than establishment politics. Michigan’s Democratic gubernatorial primary has spotlighted Abdul El-Sayed’s surprisingly strong showing, sparking a broader debate on whether authentic progressive messaging can rival overwhelming financial advantages. Marlon and Egberto argue that one of the biggest stories missing from mainstream coverage is not simply who won, but that an insurgent campaign demonstrated that money alone is no longer enough when a message resonates with voters. From there, they examine Republican primary results in Michigan, including the defeat of a Trump-endorsed congressional candidate, and debate whether identity politics has become a less effective electoral strategy. Both suggest that voters are increasingly responding to economic concerns over symbolic appeals based on race or identity. A significant portion of the discussion examines the evolution of race and class in American politics. Egberto argues that economic exploitation has always extended beyond its original targets, while Marlon points to recent immigration enforcement and political violence as evidence that systems of power ultimately affect broader segments of society. Together, they contend that many Americans are beginning to recognize race as a tool within a much larger economic and political structure. Drawing on his Wall Street career, Marlon introduces one of the episode’s central themes by sharing the now-famous 2005 Citigroup “Plutonomy” research report that circulated on his trading desk. He explains how elite financial institutions openly described an economy increasingly designed around the wealthy, while identifying democratic voting power as one of the principal long-term risks to that model. The report serves as a foundation for a broader conversation about inequality, wealth concentration, and why many of today’s political battles were anticipated decades ago inside the financial industry. The hosts also discuss how narratives surrounding poverty, crime, addiction, and public policy have shifted over time, comparing the treatment of the crack epidemic with the opioid crisis and arguing that Americans are increasingly recognizing the common economic roots underlying problems that were once framed primarily through race. In the closing segment, Marlon argues that Democratic leaders face a strategic crossroads. Rather than continuing to search for “Republican-lite” candidates, he believes the party should embrace candidates willing to advocate unapologetically for economic populism. He warns that simply moving toward the political center risks missing the energy emerging from the party’s grassroots, while Egberto echoes that voters increasingly reward authenticity over triangulation. The episode concludes with a brief preview of Marlon’s upcoming analysis of SpaceX’s post-IPO performance. Although the company exceeded earnings expectations, he explains why the stock declined, introduces the concept of IPO lock-up periods, and teases a forthcoming Hillcrest Strategies analysis examining what those mechanics could mean for investors. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thejourneyman.substack.com/subscribe

    Primary Election Results: Winners, Losers & What Happens Next

  7. Jul 27

    Hillcrest Conversations: Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist, New Century Advisors

    Air Date: 7/17/2026 Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm observed that, despite recent improvements in inflation data, the United States still faces significant economic challenges. Sahm identified inflation as the primary concern, rather than a recession, following five years of disruptions, including the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, conflict in Iran, increased tariffs, and reduced immigration. These factors have elevated business costs and sustained inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Sahm emphasized that the Federal Reserve cannot directly address most of these challenges. While raising interest rates can reduce consumer demand, it cannot increase oil supply, reverse tariffs, repair supply chains, or expand the workforce. Excessive rate hikes may lower inflation by reducing spending and employment. Still, this approach risks harming the economy if the initial price shock, such as a surge in energy prices, subsides on its own. Sahm explained that monetary policy operates by constraining purchasing power, serving as a blunt tool that restricts financial options for households and businesses. The discussion also addressed the Federal Reserve’s independence, immigration and labor force growth, the housing shortage, risks associated with AI investment, and the Sahm Rule. Sahm indicated that a recession is unlikely in the near term. She characterized the economy as stable but increasingly dependent on productivity growth and on the expectation that substantial investments in AI will yield positive outcomes. Inflation has improved, but one month is not a trend Sahm described the most recent inflation report as a “thin silver lining.” While lower energy prices contributed to the improvement, there was also measurable progress in persistent service sectors, including health care, travel, restaurants, and financial services. Nevertheless, Sahm cautioned against viewing a single positive report as indicative of a sustained trend. Multiple months of consistent improvement are necessary before concluding that inflation is returning to the Federal Reserve’s target. The economy has endured one major shock after another Sahm traced persistent inflation to an extraordinary succession of cost shocks: * Pandemic-related supply-chain and labor disruptions; * The energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; * The more recent Middle East conflict; * Dramatically increased tariffs; * Immigration restrictions that reduced the available workforce. The Fed can suppress inflation—but cannot fix its underlying cause The Fed’s challenge is even tougher when supply or cost factors drive inflation rather than excessive demand. Higher rates can discourage borrowing and spending. That makes it harder for businesses to raise prices—but may also force them to reduce hiring, eliminate jobs, or hold down wages. The Fed can therefore reduce inflation caused by an oil shock, but only by weakening other parts of the economy. It cannot produce the missing oil or resolve the geopolitical conflict. Sahm argued that policymakers must distinguish between temporary price increases that will resolve on their own and persistent inflation that requires Federal Reserve intervention. This is more “flation” than “stagflation” Although Sahm has referred to the current period as a “stagflation summer,” she contended that the primary risk at present is inflation rather than economic stagnation. The current economic environment differs significantly from that of the 1970s, when both inflation and unemployment were in the double digits. Currently, the unemployment rate remains relatively low, and the labor market is more stable than last year. The Federal Reserve’s primary challenge remains reducing inflation without unduly harming employment. She also explained that “full employment” changes as the workforce composition changes. Because today’s labor force is older and more experienced than the labor force of the 1970s, unemployment around 4% may now be broadly consistent with maximum employment. The Fed’s employment mandate has civil-rights roots A notable historical point emerged during the discussion of congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve. Sahm explained that the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings are not ceremonial appearances. They are a critical mechanism for unelected central bankers to answer to Congress. She also noted that the Fed’s maximum-employment mandate grew out of the civil rights movement and that Coretta Scott King attended the 1978 signing ceremony that established the framework. Regarding Kevin Warsh, Sahm said she was relieved he appeared to acknowledge and respect the Federal Reserve’s institutional responsibilities, despite her disagreements with certain proposed changes. She characterized the leadership transition as a return to a more conventional process after an unusually turbulent period. Immigration restrictions are changing how we should read the jobs report Sahm said the American labor force is essentially not growing—an unusual condition driven substantially by slower immigration, an aging population, and lower fertility. That changes what monthly payroll numbers mean. When the workforce isn't expanding, the economy doesn’t need to create 200,000 or 300,000 jobs each month to keep unemployment stable. In the current environment, monthly gains of 50,000 to 100,000 could represent a relatively healthy result. The larger issue is economic growth. GDP ultimately depends on how many people are working and how productive they are. With little or no labor-force growth, the country becomes increasingly dependent on productivity improvements to sustain expansion. Immigration affects housing—but does not explain the affordability crisis Sahm acknowledged that immigration increases housing demand: more households require more housing. But she said political claims blaming immigrants for the housing crisis substantially overstate their role. Immigrants also supply labor, contribute to production, and help restrain prices elsewhere in the economy. Meanwhile, housing costs have been driven by many additional forces: pandemic-era household formation, low interest rates, restrictive zoning, limited construction, and inadequate supply in desirable local markets. She stressed that housing is fundamentally local. Congress can provide incentives and establish a national direction, but Washington cannot rewrite every zoning ordinance or overcome every neighborhood’s resistance to new construction. The underlying political conflict is difficult: existing homeowners benefit from rising property values, while prospective buyers need prices to moderate. The policies that help one group may threaten the wealth of the other. Sahm also agreed that large institutional buyers, such as private equity firms, are only a relatively small part of the national affordability problem. Policies directed at them could become counterproductive if they inadvertently reduce the supply of new construction or rentals. AI as both opportunity and systemic risk Sahm described AI as a possible general-purpose technology, comparable in potential breadth to electricity or the internet. She is optimistic that it can improve productivity and acknowledges that it already helps her complete work that might otherwise remain unfinished. But she was skeptical of claims that AI will transform the entire economy within 12 or 18 months. A $30 trillion economy employing more than 150 million people does not change instantaneously. Her deeper concern was financial concentration. Hyperscalers are committing enormous sums to data centers and related infrastructure; investors are financing those projects through stocks and bonds; and a growing portion of capital spending and market optimism is tied to the belief that AI will produce a historic productivity breakthrough. As Sahm put it, the scale of investment continually raises the stakes. AI can no longer merely make individual tasks easier—it must eventually deliver a genuine paradigm shift to justify the money being spent. She compared the current buildout to the fiber-optic boom: enormous amounts of infrastructure were installed before demand and viable business models fully emerged. The fiber ultimately became enormously useful, but many early investors and companies suffered because their timing was wrong. Her warning was not that AI will fail. It is valuable technology that does not automatically validate every investment made in anticipation of it. The most important observation may have been this: AI has become one of the economy’s few remaining sources of broad optimism. It is supporting stock prices, capital investment, and confidence despite tariffs, war, and energy shocks. Consequently, if the AI narrative falters, it could take far more than technology stocks down with it. The Sahm Rule: an indicator, not a prophecy Sahm clarified that her rule is designed primarily to identify the early stages of a recession—not to forecast one far in advance. The rule is triggered when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point above its lowest level over the preceding 12 months. At present, she does not see that recessionary pattern. Unemployment has remained within a relatively narrow range, and the broader economy does not appear to be on the verge of a downturn. Conditions can change, particularly given the concentration of risk around AI and other shocks, but recession is not currently the economy’s central problem. Her ultimate measure is simpler than any formula: whether people who want jobs can find them. For Sahm, employment remains the clearest test of whether the economy is working for ordinary people. The conversation’s through-line The interview’s central theme was an economy whose apparent stability conceals a series of difficult trade-offs: * Inflation is improving, but remains

    Hillcrest Conversations: Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist, New Century Advisors

  8. Jul 14

    Black Immigrants vs. Black Americans: Who Benefits When the Diaspora Divides?

    What does it mean to be Black in America when Black identity spans different nations, cultures and historical experiences? On this episode of Citizens’ Arrest, Marlon Weems and cohost Shari Dunn welcome the show’s first guest, Deidre Keller—a Yale graduate, attorney, longtime law professor and former dean of the Florida A&M University College of Law. Born in Guyana and raised in the Bronx, Keller brings a deeply personal and scholarly perspective to a candid conversation about the relationships between Black Americans, Black immigrants and the wider African diaspora. The discussion explores how American ideas about race are exported around the world, why some immigrants arrive with negative perceptions of Black Americans, and how whiteness has historically expanded by absorbing selected immigrant groups. The panel also examines colorism, the one-drop rule, the racial identities of Barack Obama and Kamala Harris, and the ways immigration has sometimes been used to limit Black economic and political advancement. It is a wide-ranging conversation about identity, solidarity, assimilation and the unfinished struggle to make America live up to its promises. Citizens’ Arrest is hosted by Marlon Weems, publisher of The Journeyman Newsletter, and Shari Dunn, publisher of Qualified at the Intersection. Subscribe, join the conversation and share this episode with someone who believes the Black diaspora needs more honest conversations—not fewer. #CitizensArrest #BlackAmericans #BlackImmigrants #AfricanDiaspora #BlackHistory #RaceInAmerica #Immigration #Whiteness #BlackPolitics #TheJourneyman This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thejourneyman.substack.com/subscribe

    Black Immigrants vs. Black Americans: Who Benefits When the Diaspora Divides?
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About

Former Wall Street pro Marlon Weems gives his insights on the intersection of politics, the economy, and anti-Black racism. thejourneyman.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Marlon Weems
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    92
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Marlon Weems
  • Show Website
    The Journeyman: Unfiltered