KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Kevin Peranio
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KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

  1. 2D AGO

    Jobs, Inflation & Rates Matter This Week

    Labor, Inflation & Rates: Reading the Signals Into 2026 Live from Corona, California, KB breaks down a critical end-of-year data stretch and what it really means for the economy, mortgage rates, and the markets heading into 2026. With jobless claims rising, labor quietly softening, and inflation sending mixed signals, this episode cuts through the noise to explain how the Fed is weighing its true “tri-mandate” and why markets are stuck in a tug-of-war. KB dives into why headline jobs numbers may be overstated, how bond markets are interpreting upcoming labor and CPI reports, and why refinancing activity has been stronger than most people realize. From housing trends and seasonal hiring to global central bank moves, quad witching, and the ever-important 10-year Treasury, this episode connects the dots between labor, inflation, and the flow of money. It’s a moment of balance and tension: softening jobs vs. resilient spending, falling inflation vs. skeptical markets, and short-term volatility vs. longer-term opportunity. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Corona: end-of-year markets & why this data week matters 01:18 – Jobless claims as a leading indicator & what’s really happening in labor 03:32 – The Fed’s “tri-mandate” and why labor is now the focus 05:09 – Why refinancing quietly surged despite negative headlines 07:16 – Seasonal hiring, jobs reports & why Q4 often runs hot 08:34 – The 10-year Treasury, mortgage spreads & the “Elon Line” 10:00 – CPI, shelter inflation & how one report can move rates 11:40 – Overstated jobs, QCEW revisions & Powell’s 60k comment 13:00 – Stock market outlook: Santa Claus rally vs. Q1 volatility 14:40 – Global risks: central banks, liquidity & market pinch points 16:00 – Looking ahead to 2026: labor, rates & where opportunity may emerge Stay informed. Stay disciplined. Follow the data. #InterestRates #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #Inflation #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #BondMarket #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FinancePodcast

    30 min

  2. DEC 15

    Mortgage Payments Are Dropping — Here’s What’s Next

    The Fog Lifts: Fed Cuts, Falling Rates, and Mortgage Momentum From Corona, California, KP breaks down a pivotal Fed week where long-delayed data finally comes into focus. With inflation trending lower, labor showing signs of softening, and the Fed delivering a hawkish cut paired with a more dovish tone, this episode connects the dots between monetary policy, liquidity, and what it all means for mortgage rates, housing demand, and the road to 2026. KP dives deep into the “plumbing” of the economy—Core PCE, the dot plot, SOMA, balance sheet mechanics, and why liquidity matters just as much as rate cuts. You’ll also hear how falling monthly mortgage payments, improving spreads, and stabilizing rates are changing borrower psychology, setting the stage for a stronger spring purchase season. The episode also explores big-picture tailwinds: AI-driven productivity, capital spending from Big Tech, sector outlooks, regulatory shifts in LO comp and FHA, and why healthcare, financials, and industrials could outperform. Plus, KP shares market insights, a personal Nvidia bet, and what lenders should be doing now to prepare for the next growth cycle. Episode Highlights: 00:00 - KP checks in from Corona, CA & why the data fog is finally clearing 00:00 - Why markets stayed range-bound after the Fed rate cut 5:19 -  SOMA, liquidity, and “stealth QE” explained 7:02 - AI, Nvidia, Big Tech spending & productivity gains 8:31 - Core PCE, inflation trends, & why the Fed had room to cut 9:33 - Core PCE Down & monthly payments trending lower 10:41 -Purchase Demand and Refinancing Activity 12:01 - The “fog of data” and borrower psychology heading into spring 13:16 - Regulatory tailwinds & small-dollar loans 13:26 - LO comp setup and FHA monthly premium  15:38 - KP checks in from Corona, CA and The 10-year Treasury range and the “Snoop Dogg line” 16:25 - Hawkish cut, dovish press conference & reading the dot plot 17:40 - Job openings and what labor data is really signaling 22:05 - Inflation Concerns Rising and Q1 Impacts Explained 24:15 - Shelter Component of Inflation coming down 25:30 - What clearer data means for rates ahead 29:30 - Final take on the Fed, expectations, and next moves Stay focused. Stay data-driven. Stay ready. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #MortgageMarket #InterestRates #Inflation #Housing #FedCuts #AI #Nvidia #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    31 min

  3. DEC 8

    What a Six Trillion Fed Balance Sheet Signals Now

    The Fed, Liquidity & The Slowdown Ahead: What’s Really Moving the Economy From Laguna Beach at the California Mortgage Bankers Association retreat, KP breaks down the major forces shaping today’s markets — from weakening labor data to the Fed’s tightening cycle and the growing need for more liquidity in the system. As quantitative tightening winds down and global central banks shift their stance, KP explains how the Fed’s balance sheet must grow with GDP, why the market continues to lead the Fed, and where consumers are starting to show real cracks — from ADP softness to rising long-term unemployment. It’s an economy balancing slowing momentum and cautious optimism: cooling inflation vs. fragile spending, hawkish rate cuts vs. market resilience, and global policy changes vs. money flows searching for direction. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Laguna Beach: CMBA insights & the state of the market 01:12 – End of QT? Why liquidity must expand as GDP grows 02:28 – Labor weakness: ADP slowdown, small-biz job losses & long-term unemployment 03:44 – Consumer fatigue: savings drawdowns, credit stress & shifting demand 05:02 – What to expect at the next Fed meeting: hawkish cut or pause? 06:20 – Global moves: Bank of Japan rate hike risks & shifting money flows 07:36 – Inflation & PCE: what the data really signals 08:48 – Market reaction: equities, crypto & the Santa Claus rally setup 10:05 – Housing & mortgage implications in a slowing economy 11:22 – Why the doomsayers were wrong — and what to watch next Stay informed. Stay ahead. Stay in the market. 🔗 https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #LaborMarket #Liquidity #Inflation #PCEReport #HousingMarket #MarketUpdate #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    21 min

  4. DEC 1

    Inside a $5M Culver City Build + Elon & Jensen on the Future of AI

    Labor Softening, AI Shifts & KP’s Culver City Tour: What’s Really Going On in the Economy From Culver City rooftops to Corona commutes, KP breaks down the real signals in today’s market  softening labor trends, elevated WARN notices, shifting consumer behavior, and what AI, automation, and monetary policy mean for the next phase of the economy and housing. As layoffs rise, rates hover near 4% on the 10-year, and small businesses feel the pinch, KP connects the dots between labor risk, money supply constraints, jumbo rates, and why tech leaders like Jensen Huang and Elon Musk believe AI will reshape everything  from work to manufacturing to transportation. All while giving a behind-the-scenes tour of his latest Culver City project, family moments included. It’s a world balancing optimism and warning signs: soft labor vs. strong loan applications, slowing goods spending vs. rising services demand, and overhyped AI narratives vs. profound long-term disruption. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Labor still softening: WARN notices jump to 39K 01:20 – Money supply, borrowing costs & why short-term rates feel low 02:04 – Microsoft & Google double down on AI spend 02:40 – Existing home sales drop to ~4M annual rate 03:20 – Live from Culver City: rooftop tour & market talk 04:20 – Jensen Huang, Elon Musk & the AI future: robots, chips, and work becoming optional 06:00 – Is AI overhyped or underhyped? Why KP says both 07:00 – Housing insights: millionaire tax, jumbo rates & the future of affordability 08:10 – Kids’ basketball, mullets & construction updates (yes, really) 09:20 – Loan limits rise & purchasing power expands 10:38 – Loan apps hit the highest level YTD despite holiday slowdowns 11:20 – Treasury yields, tariffs & how mindset shapes market reactions 12:35 – The rise of automation in lending: speed, underwriting & AI agents 14:00 – Rate-cut chatter: why the Fed is shifting as labor weakens 15:30 – Global risks: hacks, explosions & foreign interference 16:40 – PPI, durable goods & what the data says about inflation’s direction 18:00 – Retail sales soften, services hold up & holiday outlook 18:45 – KP’s take on AI, DeepMind & the road ahead for lenders 19:30 – Thanksgiving wrap, gratitude & what’s next Stay informed. Stay ahead. Stay in the market. 🔗 https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #MortgageNews #FederalReserve #AI #InterestRates #HousingMarket #Economy #LaborMarket #SmallBusiness #FinanceUpdate #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    20 min

  5. NOV 24

    The Real Reason the Fed Needs to Cut Rates Again Soon

    Jobs, Housing, and the Hawkish Cut Ahead From Southern California, KP breaks down a week where the data finally caught up to the story: a slowing labor market, cooling rents, and a Fed preparing to make its most important move yet. With the delayed jobs report showing rising unemployment and the December 10th meeting approaching, this episode connects the dots between labor softness, housing affordability, and why a hawkish rate cut might be the twist no one sees coming. KP also digs into the AI boom, the Nvidia effect, and what efficiency really means as technology reshapes productivity, lending, and the broader economy. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – KP checks in from SoCal & the strange September jobs report 02:10 – Unemployment ticks up and what it means for the December 10 Fed meeting 04:40 – Housing pain points, first-time buyers & the new age of homeownership 07:15 – Rents decline for a 3rd month: the silent helper for inflation 09:20 – Non-bank lenders, small business stress & tightening credit 11:05 – AI, Nvidia, and the new efficiency paradox 13:45 – Ethereum scaling, blockspace & Jevons Paradox in the real world Stay sharp. Stay resilient. Stay informed. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #JobsReport #HousingMarket #InterestRates #Inflation #AI #Nvidia #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    26 min

  6. NOV 17

    Social Security Cuts + 50-Year Mortgages? Here’s the Real Deal

    Social Security Cuts, 50-Year Loans & Musk’s $1T Plan — What’s REALLY Going On From California to the heart of Manhattan, KP breaks down a chaotic week in markets, politics, housing, and the broader economy — all unfolding at the same time. Social Security’s looming insolvency, the controversy around 50-year mortgages, and Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar vision are shaking up conversations in Washington and on Wall Street. With layoffs rising, government data returning, Treasury auctions heating up, and mortgage rates facing pressure, the market is balancing fear, momentum, and a lot of noise. KP cuts through it all with clarity, speed, and real-world insight. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from California & Manhattan: where sentiment on the ground really stands 01:05 – Social Security warning signs & the timeline no one wants to talk about 02:12 – 50-year mortgage debate: smart innovation or ticking time bomb? 03:40 – Treasury auctions, yields & why the bond market is suddenly volatile 04:51 – Layoff spike, job data, and cracks in the labor market 06:08 – Musk’s trillion-dollar plan & the next wave of AI acceleration 07:20 – Inflation cooldown, mortgage rate pressure & refi window opening 08:33 – Housing supply issues, flood insurance updates & USDA loan changes 09:10 – Why private debt is dropping — and how it could push stocks higher Stay informed. Stay sharp. Stay in the market. https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense If you want to be contacted by the KP Talks Team about anything housing or mortgage related, click here:  https://hub.whisp.io/?pid=q8d75a85 #MortgageNews #FederalReserve #Economy #InterestRates #SocialSecurity #StockMarket #AI #HousingMarket #USDEconomy #KPTalksDollarsAndSense #FinanceUpdate

    23 min

  7. NOV 10

    AI Is Changing Everything, Even the Fed

    AI, Rates & The Flow of Money: What’s Really Driving the Market From Denver to Dallas, KP goes behind the scenes at the Total Expert Customer Advisory Board and Accelerate Conference to unpack how AI, rates, and economic sentiment are reshaping housing, lending, and the broader economy. As the government shutdown drags on and the Fed debates its next move, KP breaks down how credit, labor, and technology all connect — from small business struggles to trillion-dollar AI investments. It’s a world balancing innovation and instability: rising productivity vs. slowing jobs, AI breakthroughs vs. compliance hurdles, and global uncertainty vs. a resilient U.S. economy. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Denver: Total Expert Advisory insights & industry outlook 01:02 – AI in lending: compliance, automation & the next pivot point 02:14 – The Fed “driving in the fog” & the uncertain path to rate cuts 03:25 – Markets rally as geopolitical tension cools & money flows freer 04:38 – How AI, drones & automation are reshaping global productivity 06:05 – OpenAI’s $1.4T bet: the next wave of the AI bull run 07:16 – Labor slowdown & small business weakness: what’s next for growth 08:43 – Mortgage spreads, earnings reports & why companies are winning 10:05 – Berkshire Hathaway’s cash mountain & the energy race with China 11:32 – Setting goals for 2026: opportunity in an uncertain world Stay informed. Stay ahead. Stay in the market. 🔗 https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #MortgageNews #FederalReserve #AI #InterestRates #StockMarket #HousingMarket #Economy #LaborMarket #SmallBusiness #TechTrends #KPTalksDollarsAndSense #FinanceUpdate

    22 min

  8. NOV 3

    The Fed’s Playing with Fire: Soft Landing or Hidden Recession?

    The Longest Game, the Softest Landing After the longest World Series game in history, America woke up to more than just baseball headlines. Freddie Freeman’s walk-off capped an unforgettable night — but the bigger story may be the economy’s own “extra innings.” With the Fed cutting rates again and inflation showing signs of cooling, KP breaks down how these shifts could spark a comeback for housing, stocks, and small business optimism. From the diamond to Wall Street, this week’s episode connects the dots between passion, patience, and performance — and what they all mean for your wallet. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Dodgers’ epic win & lessons from extra innings 02:45 – CPI, inflation, and why “less than feared” matters 05:20 – The Fed’s latest rate cut: relief or warning? 07:10 – Housing, mortgages & why buyers are waking up 09:00 – Bonds, stocks, and where smart money is flowing 10:15 – The Magnificent Seven, AI, and the next market wave Stay sharp. Stay resilient. Stay informed. https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #Inflation #StockMarket #HousingMarket #Dodgers #WorldSeries #SoftLanding #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    30 min
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About

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Information

  • Creator
    Kevin Peranio
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2025
  • Episodes
    200
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2025 KP Talks Dollars and Sense
  • Show Website
    KP Talks Dollars and Sense