KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Kevin Peranio
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KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

  1. 5d ago

    Real Jobs Data Looks Weaker Than Reported

    Weak Jobs, Choppy Rates, and the Fed's Next Move The economy is still growing, but weakening job creation, persistent inflation, elevated rates, and growing uncertainty are creating a complicated environment for consumers, lenders, and investors. From Corona, California, KP breaks down the latest labor-market data, Federal Reserve policy, mortgage rates, housing trends, and the forces shaping the economy heading into the final stretch of the year. KP starts with a look at the labor market and the growing gap between headline jobs data and the underlying numbers. He explains how the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) has revised job creation lower and why an average of only a few tens of thousands of jobs created per month could signal a much weaker labor market than the official reports suggest. He then examines inflation and the Federal Reserve, including Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish comments, the latest PCE data, the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean inflation measure, and the shifting odds of a rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting. KP explains why the Fed may continue to hold rates despite pressure from the bond market and why inflation, labor data, and the upcoming midterm election could all influence the timing of future rate decisions. The conversation also explores the bond market, Treasury yields, and the potential risks created by higher rates. KP discusses Japanese yen intervention, the yen carry trade, Treasury market volatility, and why another Fed rate hike could increase borrowing costs for consumers while putting additional pressure on already highly leveraged capital markets. KP examines housing, economic growth, AI investment, and the latest employment data, including ADP, job cuts, and rising VA mortgage activity. As Labor Day approaches, he highlights the key signals investors and mortgage professionals should watch in an uncertain rate environment. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – QCEW revisions and why job creation may be weaker than reported 00:26 – KP returns to the office in Corona, California 00:43 – A tour of the PRMG office and the new podcast studio 02:28 – Company milestones and PRMG's growth 03:22 – Social Coach and upcoming industry events 04:32 – PRMG's internal TV station and company operations 05:00 – The new fitness room and office expansion 06:00 – KP's first look at the new podcast room 06:32 – Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish comments and the inflation outlook 07:00 – PCE inflation and the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean measure 07:20 – Will the Fed hold rates through the September meeting? 08:20 – Inflation, consumer purchasing power, and the compounding effect of higher prices 09:20 – The QCEW and the real state of the labor market 10:07 – Why 273,000 reported jobs may have been overstated 10:20 – QCEW revisions and the weak pace of job creation 10:40 – Why the upcoming jobs report could be revised lower 11:00 – Unemployment, the Fed, and the possibility of a rate hike 11:20 – Bond markets, Treasury intervention, and the yen carry trade 12:00 – How higher rates could impact consumers and capital markets 12:20 – Case-Shiller home prices and the housing market 12:40 – Housing inflation and its impact on CPI and PCE 13:00 – GDP growth and the outlook for the second half of the year 13:20 – AI investment, data centers, and economic growth 14:00 – Why the Fed and bond market may be sending different signals 14:20 – The jobs report and the importance of labor-market data 15:00 – The QCEW's 36,000 average monthly job creation figure 16:20 – Unemployment, labor supply, and the impact of reduced immigration 16:40 – U6 unemployment and the broader labor market 17:00 – CME FedWatch and shifting rate-hike expectations 17:20 – Inflation, oil prices, and the Fed's policy dilemma 18:00 – Why the housing market remains active despite being "frozen" 18:20 – Why the market is struggling to find certainty 19:20 – ADP reports only 38,000 jobs created 20:00 – Healthcare and education driving job growth 20:35 – Corporate earnings, AI, and the "jobless growth" economy 21:20 – Could consumers be entering a rolling recession? 22:00 – Challenger job cuts and the latest employment trends 22:40 – VA mortgage lending surges in the first half of the year 23:00 – Why mortgage professionals should keep grinding through uncertainty As the Fed weighs inflation and a weakening labor market, KP examines key economic signals, from jobs and bonds to housing, AI investment, GDP, and VA lending. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #JobsReport #LaborMarket #QCEW #Inflation #Economy #MortgageMarket #BondMarket #Treasury #GDP #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #VAloans #FinancialMarkets #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

  2. Aug 31

    Is AI Investing Draining Treasury Bond Demand?

    PCE Inflation, Treasury Yields, AI Capital Flows, and the Road to Jackson Hole From Austin, Texas, KP breaks down the latest forces shaping Treasury yields, mortgage rates, capital markets, inflation, and the broader economy. With August trading volume remaining relatively light and several major economic and market events approaching, KP explains why the flow of money could become increasingly important for rates and financial markets heading into September. The episode begins at the Blend Forum in Austin, where KP connects with mortgage and industry professionals while discussing the latest developments in economics and financial markets. With the Federal Reserve preparing for its next major decisions, attention is turning toward the upcoming PCE inflation report and the Jackson Hole gathering, where Fed Chair Warshaw is expected to speak. KP explains why the PCE report is particularly important for the Federal Reserve. As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index could provide another signal about whether inflation is continuing to moderate. KP also discusses why the September Fed meeting may ultimately have a greater influence on interest rates than Jackson Hole. The conversation then turns to the Treasury market and the impact of seasonal trading volumes. With August typically seeing lighter activity across the stock, bond, and Treasury markets, KP cautions against reading too much into short-term moves in yields. As markets return to more normal trading volumes after Labor Day, investors could have a clearer picture of where rates are heading. AI and the flow of capital are another major focus. KP discusses how the AI technology trade may be crowding out some of the capital traditionally used to purchase Treasuries. With major financial institutions committing hundreds of billions of dollars toward AI-related investments and Nvidia preparing to report earnings, KP explains why corporate earnings and capital allocation could have a meaningful impact on financial markets. KP also compares Treasury yields with potential returns from the stock market. With the 30-year Treasury yield around 5.32% and the 10-year yield around 4.70%, investors must weigh the certainty of fixed-income returns against the potential upside—and risk—of equities and AI-related investments. The discussion highlights how yield expectations influence where capital ultimately flows. The episode also examines U.S. and global economic growth, monetary policy, and the country's growing national debt. KP compares current U.S. GDP with levels from a decade ago and looks at the expansion of global GDP over the same period. With the U.S. national debt approaching $40 trillion, KP emphasizes the importance of watching fiscal responsibility, monetary policy, and the flow of money as markets navigate the next phase of economic growth. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Treasury yields, fixed-income returns, and the flow of money 00:28 – KP at the Blend Forum in Austin, Texas 00:48 – PCE inflation and expectations for Jackson Hole 01:36 – Why August trading volume matters 02:00 – The PCE report and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure 02:15 – Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Warshaw 02:37 – Nvidia earnings and the impact on capital markets 02:40 – How the AI trade is affecting Treasury demand 03:18 – $500 billion in AI-related capital commitments 03:20 – Treasury yields versus potential stock market returns 04:00 – U.S. national debt and fiscal responsibility 04:20 – U.S. GDP growth over the past decade 04:40 – Global GDP growth and monetary policy 05:00 – What could influence mortgage rates heading into September 05:12 – Why the September Fed meeting may matter more than Jackson Hole 05:20 – A final look at Austin and the Blend Forum As markets prepare for the PCE inflation report, Jackson Hole, and Nvidia's earnings, KP provides a real-world look at the forces influencing Treasury yields, mortgage rates, capital markets, and the broader economy. From AI-driven investment and Treasury demand to inflation, monetary policy, GDP growth, and national debt, the key remains understanding where capital is flowing and what that means for rates and financial markets. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense If you want to be contacted by the KP Talks Team about anything housing or mortgage-related, click here:  https://hub.whisp.io/?pid=q8d75a85 #MortgageRates #TreasuryYields #PCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #JacksonHole #AITrade #Nvidia #CapitalMarkets #InterestRates #Economy #GDP #NationalDebt #BondMarket #StockMarket #Finance #MortgageIndustry #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

  3. Aug 24

    Bots Now Outnumber Humans Online, Says New Report

    AI Infrastructure, the Treasury Put, and the Future of Mortgage Markets The economy is still moving, but higher rates, fiscal pressures, and seasonal mortgage weakness are creating a more challenging environment. From Corona and Newport Beach, California, KP looks at the latest trends shaping the economy, housing market, financial markets, and the rapidly expanding AI buildout. KP starts with the mortgage market, explaining why purchase business is slowing seasonally while non-QM and equity lending continue to create opportunities. He discusses rising HELOC balances, changes to GSE limited-review policies, and why mortgage professionals need to sharpen their products, build relationships, and continue grinding through a slower market. He then examines the broader economy, including the "no-hire, no-fire" labor market, slower population growth, consumer spending, retail sales, inflation, and the latest housing data. KP explains why modest job growth may now be considered normal and whether declining retail sales and moderating inflation could help move the economy closer to the Fed's 2% target. The conversation then shifts to AI and the enormous infrastructure investment required to support it. KP breaks down the cost of AI computing capacity, the need for 70 gigawatts of new power, NVIDIA's massive financing efforts, and the growing impact of AI bots on internet traffic. He explores whether the AI boom can continue driving productivity while requiring unprecedented amounts of capital and energy. KP also takes a closer look at Treasury policy and asks a provocative question: Is there a Treasury Put instead of a Fed Put? He explains why increased Treasury purchases could signal concern about elevated long-term yields and why the bigger issue may be fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. Finally, KP discusses the federal debt surpassing $40 trillion, persistent inflation, mortgage rates, oil prices, and the Strait of Hormuz. He explains why oil remains closely connected to stock-market performance and why the continued flow of oil through alternative routes is preventing a more dramatic price shock. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – The massive cost of AI infrastructure and the need for new power capacity 00:24 – KP's TPO management summit and the current mortgage market 01:15 – Higher rates and the seasonal slowdown in purchase business 01:40 – Refinance opportunities and the continued growth of non-QM lending 02:00 – Rising HELOC balances and expanding equity-lending opportunities 02:25 – Why originators need to focus on products and relationship building 02:44 – The "jobless boom" and the no-hire, no-fire economy 03:14 – Why zero to 30,000 jobs may now represent normal job growth 03:20 – AI, worker productivity, and the massive infrastructure buildout 04:00 – AI computing as an emerging asset class 04:20 – The $50–$60 billion cost per gigawatt of AI infrastructure 04:23 – NVIDIA's $500 billion financing effort and the AI capital boom 05:04 – AI bots surpassing human internet traffic 05:40 – July retail sales, consumer spending, and economic demand 06:00 – Core CPI, inflation, and the Fed's 2% target 07:00 – Grocery prices, home sales, and the housing market 07:42 – Credit scores, borrower risk, and the potential impact of inflated scores 08:20 – Why mortgage professionals need to keep grinding through slower times 09:20 – The Fed Put and the changing role of the Federal Reserve 10:08 – Treasury purchases double from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation 10:20 – Is there now a "Treasury Put" instead of a Fed Put? 10:40 – Long-term Treasury yields and why rates remain elevated 11:40 – Fiscal policy versus monetary policy 12:00 – Federal debt surpassing $40 trillion 12:20 – Sticky inflation and the impact on mortgage rates 13:00 – Earnings season, NVIDIA, and the upcoming midterm cycle 13:20 – Non-QM lending, condo financing, and rising equity lending 13:55 – Oil, the Strait of Hormuz, and alternative shipping routes 14:21 – Why oil prices remain closely correlated with stocks 15:00 – Strategic petroleum reserves and the outlook for oil markets As AI investment accelerates, Treasury policy evolves, and mortgage markets navigate higher rates and seasonal weakness, KP breaks down the economic signals that lenders, investors, and consumers should be watching. From AI infrastructure and fiscal policy to housing, inflation, and oil, this episode explores where the opportunities and risks may be heading next. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Treasury #USTreasuries #FiscalPolicy #Inflation #Economy #MortgageMarket #NonQM #HELOC #OilPrices #FinancialMarkets #Investing #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

  4. Aug 17

    The Fed, Jobs, and What Happens to Mortgage Rates

    Mortgage Rates, Inflation, Labor Data, and the Flow of Money From the Western Secondary Conference in Newport Beach, California, KP breaks down the latest forces shaping mortgage rates, housing, capital markets, and the broader economy. With the 10-year Treasury moving back toward 4.70%, elevated oil prices creating additional pressure, and the second half of the year typically bringing slower purchase activity, KP explains why mortgage professionals and consumers need to pay close attention to the flow of money. The episode begins at the Western Secondary Conference, where more than 800 mortgage and capital markets professionals gathered to build relationships, discuss new ideas, and put capital to work. KP explains why capital markets conferences are about more than presentations—they are where business gets done, new funding relationships are established, and innovation across the mortgage industry takes shape. KP also highlights California MBA's advocacy efforts, including work surrounding California's AB 801. The proposed legislation would have required up to 36 months of mortgage forbearance following certain disasters. KP explains how industry advocacy helped reduce the proposed requirement to 12 months with the possibility of an additional 12-month extension, while emphasizing why regulations originating in California can have broader implications for the mortgage industry nationwide. The conversation then turns to the economy and the changing shape of consumer spending. KP challenges the traditional "K-shaped economy" narrative and discusses the emerging "C-shaped" and "G-shaped" descriptions of today's economy. With lower-income workers experiencing stronger wage growth while consumers continue spending on necessities and experiences, KP examines why the economy may be more resilient than many headlines suggest. Labor data is another major focus. KP breaks down the latest jobs report, including weaker-than-expected job creation, significant downward revisions to previous months, and the decline in the unemployment rate caused partly by workers leaving the labor force. With wage growth still running above inflation, KP explains why the Federal Reserve may have more time to evaluate the labor market before making its next major policy decision. Inflation and mortgage rates remain central to the discussion. KP examines recent CPI and PPI data, noting that inflation has continued to moderate while producer prices have also cooled from previous levels. With inflation moving closer to the Federal Reserve's target and expectations for a September rate hike fading, the focus is increasingly shifting toward employment data and whether the labor market continues to weaken. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Oil prices, the 10-year Treasury, and pressure on mortgage rates 01:00 – California MBA and the fight over AB 801 02:20 – Why capital markets conferences matter to the mortgage industry 03:20 – The flow of money and capital constraints 04:00 – The shift from a K-shaped to a C-shaped economy 05:00 – Jobs data, consumer spending, and wage growth 06:40 – CPI, PPI, and what the Fed is watching 07:10 – Oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz, and mortgage rates 08:20 – Western Secondary attendance and California MBA advocacy 10:40 – Inflation cooling and expectations for future Fed policy 11:20 – Labor data and whether the BLS numbers are becoming more accurate 12:20 – Return on Energy and getting results from your effort 13:00 – Blockchain, tokenized mortgages, and financial innovation 13:40 – AI spending, corporate earnings, and the S&P 500 14:40 – The outlook for the second half of the year As inflation continues to moderate, labor data weakens, and capital continues flowing into AI and financial markets, KP provides a real-world look at the forces shaping mortgage rates, housing, capital markets, and the broader economy. From Federal Reserve policy and Treasury yields to consumer spending, regulation, and corporate earnings, the key remains understanding where the money is flowing and what it means for the markets. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #MortgageRates #Inflation #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #LaborMarket #WageGrowth #CapitalMarkets #MortgageIndustry #Economy #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #AI #StockMarket #SP500 #CorporateEarnings #CaliforniaMBA #WesternSecondary #RealEstate #MortgageBanking

  5. Aug 10

    The Hidden Link Between Rates and Mortgages

    The economy may be stronger than you think. From Corona, California, KP takes a look at the latest trends shaping the economy, housing market, and financial markets. With Jobs Week underway, he covers the resilience of the U.S. economy, improving mortgage activity, ongoing inflation concerns, and the growing influence of AI, commodities, and stablecoins. KP starts with encouraging signs in the housing and mortgage markets, with July showing some of the strongest activity since 2021 and August also looking promising. He explains why the second half of the year could be stronger than the usual seasonal slowdown. He then looks at the broader economy and the Federal Reserve, including the upcoming jobs report, GDP growth, strong consumer spending, declining savings rates, and the growing divide between higher- and lower-income households. KP explores the housing affordability crisis, the shortage of starter homes, and why more construction, including manufactured housing, could help meet demand. He also looks at inflation, oil prices, interest rates, and why mortgage rates can move differently from the Fed’s overnight rate. The conversation then shifts to AI and the changing economy, covering manufacturing, energy, rare earth elements, and the infrastructure needed to support AI. KP explains how lower AI costs could drive productivity and small-business growth. He also looks at the labor market, the Fed’s latest thinking, and alternative economic data. Finally, KP dives into stablecoins and Tether, exploring how digital dollars are becoming more connected to U.S. Treasuries and the global financial system. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Consumer spending, the K-shaped economy, and savings rates 00:28 – KP's macroeconomic outlook and why he's staying positive 01:11 – A surprisingly strong July for the mortgage industry 01:40 – August mortgage activity and the importance of jobs week 02:00 – The Fed's mandate, inflation, and the upcoming jobs report 03:00 – GDP growth, consumer spending, and the K-shaped economy 03:27 – Falling savings rates and financial pressure on consumers 03:46 – The starter-home shortage and the affordable housing challenge 04:23 – $570 billion in second-quarter residential lending 05:01 – Why there is still plenty of mortgage business available 05:20 – Trimmed-mean inflation and the Fed's inflation strategy 06:24 – Why the Fed's overnight rate differs from long-term Treasury yields 07:07 – Oil, Russian refining capacity, and commodity pressures 07:40 – The "old economy" vs. the AI-driven new economy 08:25 – Manufacturing, commodities, and economic growth 09:05 – The dramatic decline in AI costs and the rise of AI businesses 10:02 – OpenAI, Anthropic, and the rapid growth of AI revenue 10:40 – Fed forward guidance and data dependence 11:20 – Treasury yields, the labor market, and rate expectations 12:00 – Alternative economic data and the search for better indicators 12:20 – Rising rates, oil prices, and potential systemic inflation 13:03 – Economic resilience, manufacturing, and mortgage demand 14:20 – Japan, U.S. Treasuries, and protecting the bond market 15:11 – Why long-term Treasury yields matter to the Fed 16:20 – The Fed's 9-3 vote and what it could signal for September 18:20 – Why the Fed may be more tolerant of inflation than expected 19:40 – Falling job openings and the "no hire, no fire" economy 20:41 – Corporate earnings, margin debt, and the AI investment boom 21:20 – Home equity, credit utilization, and consumer financial pressure 22:54 – Tether, stablecoins, and the flow of money 23:40 – Tether's $141 billion in U.S. Treasuries 24:00 – Why Tether's Treasury holdings matter to the dollar 24:40 – The petrodollar, global credit, and the dollar's reserve status 25:40 – Stablecoin regulation and the future of dollar-backed digital money 26:02 – Why stablecoins could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury demand As the Federal Reserve watches inflation and employment, mortgage markets continue adapting to higher rates, AI investment accelerates, and stablecoins become increasingly connected to U.S. Treasuries, KP breaks down the economic signals investors, lenders, and consumers should be watching. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense If you want to be contacted by the KP Talks Team about anything housing or mortgage-related, click here:  https://hub.whisp.io/?pid=q8d75a85 #FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Stablecoin #Tether #USTreasuries #JobsReport #Inflation #Economy #FinancialMarkets #Investing #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

  6. Aug 3

    Will Inflation Lower Mortgage Rates?

    Fed Week, Cooling Inflation, AI Spending, and What Comes Next for Rates From Dana Point, California, to Corona, California, KP recaps one of the most important weeks for financial markets, covering the Federal Reserve meeting, the latest PCE inflation report, Big Tech earnings, and the key trends influencing mortgage rates, housing, and the broader economy. As investors digest new economic data and corporate earnings, KP explains why the underlying numbers paint a more balanced picture than many of today's headlines. The episode begins at Cotality's Core Connect conference, where discussions centered on artificial intelligence, innovation, and the future of real estate technology. KP shares how AI is becoming increasingly people-centric, helping professionals eliminate repetitive work while improving the customer experience. He also highlights emerging technologies that could reshape the homebuying process in the years ahead. The conversation then shifts to the Federal Reserve's latest meeting and the uncertainty surrounding future interest rate decisions. KP breaks down Chair Kevin Warsh's comments, the growing number of dissenting votes within the Fed, and why the central bank appears willing to let financial markets—not forward guidance, play a larger role in determining the direction of policy. He also explains why the bond market continues to lead expectations for future rate movements. A major focus of the episode is the latest inflation data. KP examines the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and explains why most inflation components continue moving lower. While energy prices remain a source of volatility, wage growth is still keeping pace with inflation for employed workers, suggesting that household purchasing power remains relatively stable despite higher interest rates. Housing also remains a central theme throughout the discussion. KP explains why higher mortgage rates continue moderating home price appreciation without triggering widespread distress, while highlighting the differences between CPI and PCE inflation measurements and why housing carries different weight in each index. He also discusses what current housing data suggests about the overall health of the market. The episode also explores one of the busiest earnings weeks of the year. KP analyzes results from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and other major companies, focusing on how AI investments are translating into business performance and shareholder returns. Rather than simply spending on artificial intelligence, companies demonstrating measurable returns on investment continue attracting capital, reinforcing the importance of productivity and long-term innovation. Finally, KP shares updates from the mortgage industry, including upcoming discussions around AI governance, credit scoring, GSE initiatives, and responsible AI at the MSMO Summit. He wraps up by discussing the outlook for the next Fed meeting, Jackson Hole, and why upcoming inflation and labor market reports could determine whether interest rates remain steady or move higher. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Why most inflation components continue moving lower 01:10 – Live from Cotality's Core Connect in Dana Point 02:20 – AI, real estate, and the future of customer experience 03:40 – Fed Week and what markets are watching 05:00 – Earnings season and why capital flows matter 06:10 – Returning to the desk in Corona, California 07:00 – Housing, mortgage rates, and market conditions 08:20 – CPI vs. PCE: understanding inflation 10:00 – Fed Chair Warsh, bond markets, and future rate decisions 13:00 – Why wages continue keeping pace with inflation 16:00 – Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and AI investment returns 18:20 – Housing health, GSE performance, and mortgage market updates 19:30 – Jackson Hole, future Fed meetings, and what to watch next As inflation continues to cool, AI reshapes the business landscape, and markets prepare for the next Federal Reserve decision, KP provides practical insights into the economic forces influencing mortgage rates, housing, investing, and the broader financial outlook. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #FederalReserve #Inflation #PCE #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Economy #InterestRates #AI #StockMarket #Microsoft #Apple #Amazon #BondMarket #RealEstate #FederalReserveMeeting

  7. Jul 27

    The Hidden Reason Stocks Suddenly Drop

    Markets, AI Spending, Non-QM Lending, and the Fed: What Investors Should Watch Next From Corona, California, KP returns with a timely update on the forces shaping today's economy, housing market, and financial markets. With the Federal Reserve entering its blackout period, geopolitical tensions escalating in the Middle East, and earnings season underway, KP explains why markets remain volatile and what investors, lenders, and homebuyers should be paying attention to. The episode opens with a reflection on the human cost of the ongoing conflict with Iran before shifting to the week's light economic calendar. Although recent CPI and PPI reports showed encouraging signs that inflation is cooling, bond markets remain cautious as investors wait for additional data and next week's Federal Reserve meeting. KP explains why Treasury yields have remained elevated and why mortgage rates continue moving sideways despite improving inflation trends. KP also discusses encouraging signs within the housing market. Mortgage lock activity continues to improve even during the traditionally slower summer months, suggesting that buyers are adapting to today's interest rate environment instead of waiting indefinitely. He also highlights the continued expansion of the non-QM lending market, explaining why more originators are making alternative lending products a permanent part of their business strategy as refinance opportunities remain limited. The conversation then explores a concept KP calls a potential "rolling consumer recession." While higher-income households continue supporting consumer spending, many lower-income families remain under pressure from elevated living costs and energy prices. KP examines how continued geopolitical instability could affect inflation if oil supply disruptions become more severe, while discussing why energy prices remain one of the biggest variables for the economy in the months ahead. The second half of the episode focuses on corporate earnings and the AI investment race. Using Google's and Tesla's latest earnings reports as examples, KP explains why many companies are willingly sacrificing short-term profits to invest heavily in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, automation, robotics, and future infrastructure. He argues that today's AI spending is less about immediate returns and more about building businesses that can remain competitive for years to come. Finally, KP examines the sharp rise in margin debt and what it may signal about investor sentiment. While he stops short of calling a market top, he explains why leveraged investing has increased significantly, how options expiration contributed to recent market volatility, and why long-term investors should focus on companies that are "building the clock" rather than simply telling time. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Market volatility, margin debt, and recent stock market swings 00:30 – Honoring those lost in the Iran conflict 01:20 – Fed blackout period and why markets remain cautious 02:10 – Treasury yields, mortgage rates, and improving lock activity 02:45 – Why non-QM lending continues gaining momentum 04:00 – Could a rolling consumer recession be developing? 05:20 – Energy prices, inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainty 06:20 – Google's and Tesla's earnings reveal the AI investment race 08:20 – Why companies are prioritizing long-term AI infrastructure over short-term profits 10:00 – Rising margin debt and what it means for investors 11:00 – Building future-proof businesses in the age of AI 11:50 – Market insights, technology trends, and closing thoughts As the Federal Reserve prepares for another policy decision, AI investment accelerates, and housing demand continues adjusting to higher rates, KP breaks down the key economic trends influencing mortgage markets, investing, lending, and the broader financial outlook. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #NonQM #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #Economy #TreasuryYields #EarningsSeason

  8. Jul 20

    CPI Falls While Housing Demand Stays Strong

    Inflation Cools, Mortgage Activity Surges, and Why the Market Isn't as Bad as the Headlines Suggest Broadcasting from Rome and Tuscany, Italy, KP shares his latest market insights while on a family vacation, breaking down the newest inflation data, the state of the housing market, and why investors should avoid overreacting to short-term economic headlines. While the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a meaningful decline in inflation, KP explains why one encouraging report doesn't mean inflation has been defeated, or that higher rates are about to disappear. In this episode, KP discusses why inflation remains highly volatile, particularly as energy prices continue to fluctuate alongside geopolitical tensions. Although the headline and core CPI both moved lower, he explains why the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor inflation and labor market data before making any significant policy decisions. Rather than celebrating one favorable report, KP encourages listeners to focus on longer-term trends instead of reacting to every monthly data release. The conversation also explores how money moves through financial markets. KP explains the relationship between oil prices, stocks, bonds, and options expiration, showing why markets sometimes move for technical reasons rather than changes in economic fundamentals. He also discusses why Treasury yields have remained relatively stable despite improving inflation data. On the housing side, KP highlights encouraging signs for the mortgage industry. He shares that Ginnie Mae recorded its strongest second-quarter bond issuance since 2021, mortgage lock activity remained surprisingly strong throughout June and July, and major lenders reported significant increases in mortgage production. He also points to Gen Z recording its strongest quarter ever for home purchases, suggesting that housing demand remains healthier than many headlines imply. The episode also examines why weekly wages provide a more meaningful measure of purchasing power than hourly earnings alone. With wage growth continuing to outpace inflation for many workers, KP explains why the Federal Reserve remains focused on balancing slowing inflation with a gradually cooling labor market, while cautioning that recent improvements should not yet be viewed as a lasting trend. Alongside the market discussion, KP shares stories from his family's first international vacation, reflecting on parenting, making memories, and finding perspective while traveling through some of Italy's most historic destinations. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Rome: Family travels and the latest CPI report 01:20 – Inflation falls, but why it's too early to declare victory 02:10 – Oil prices, energy volatility, and inflation trends 03:10 – The ROAD Act and recent political developments 03:40 – Ginnie Mae issuance, mortgage activity, and Gen Z homebuyers 04:40 – Live from Tuscany: Understanding the flow of money in financial markets 05:40 – Stocks, bonds, options expiration, and market mechanics 07:00 – Strong mortgage production and bank earnings signal resilience 08:20 – Why weekly wages matter more than hourly earnings 09:40 – Jobs data, inflation, and what the Fed is watching next 10:40 – Housing costs, CPI, and why inflation may be moderating 11:40 – Why long-term trends matter more than short-term headlines 12:40 – Family reflections from Tuscany and closing thoughts As inflation continues to cool, labor markets gradually soften, and mortgage activity remains stronger than expected, KP explains why understanding the broader economic picture is far more valuable than reacting to the latest headline. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #MortgageRates #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #MortgageIndustry #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #GenZ #GinnieMae #Economy #RealEstate

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About

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Information

  • Creator
    Kevin Peranio
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    237
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 KP Talks Dollars and Sense
  • Show Website
    KP Talks Dollars and Sense