KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Kevin Peranio
  • 0.0 (0)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

  1. 4D AGO

    $200B Move Driving Mortgage Rates Lower

    Liquidity, the Fed, and the Hidden Drivers of Mortgage Rates From Corona, California, KP returns with a deep dive into the forces quietly shaping mortgage rates, housing demand, and market sentiment as the year unfolds. With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac expanding their balance sheets, billions flowing into mortgage-backed securities, and the Fed navigating stale data and political pressure, this episode reveals why today’s rate environment is more fragile—and more important—than it appears. KP breaks down how liquidity injections are compressing spreads and stabilizing mortgage rates, why lower rates are unlocking existing home inventory, and how borrower psychology is shifting after years of rate volatility. The conversation connects Fed policy, labor market trends, Big Tech earnings, and capital flows between stocks and bonds—showing how macro decisions translate into real-world mortgage activity. Zooming out, the episode explores the biggest uncertainties ahead: a potential government shutdown, the announcement of a new Fed chair, outdated economic models, slowing wage growth, rising consumer debt, and the growing gap between headline GDP and everyday economic reality. KP also examines the role of AI, data centers, and hyperscalers in driving growth—and why economic expansion increasingly feels like a “spectator sport” for most Americans. The episode closes with insights from Davos, updated mortgage forecasts, and a grounded outlook on where rates, housing supply, and the economy may head next—offering clarity for industry leaders, lenders, and anyone trying to navigate an increasingly complex financial landscape. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Mortgage-backed securities and liquidity shaping rates 0:44 – KP checks in from Corona, CA and sets the macro backdrop 1:20 – Tribute, markets, and the emotional side of industry leadership 2:33 – Fed week: expectations, rate levels, and market sentiment 3:00 – Why lower mortgage rates are changing borrower behavior 4:07 – Fannie, Freddie, and the $200B balance sheet expansion 5:59 – Liquidity, volatility, and the psychology of housing demand 7:10 – Existing home inventory and the real supply unlock 8:20 – Government shutdown risk and political pressure on policy 10:00 – Fed independence, outdated models, and data uncertainty 12:00 – GDP vs reality: why growth feels uneven 14:00 – Big Tech, AI, and capital flows 16:00 – Mortgage forecasts and rate outlook 18:00 – Davos insights and global economic signals 20:00 – Final outlook on rates, housing, and market momentum Stay focused. Stay data-driven. Stay ready for opportunity. Follow for more insights: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Liquidity #Macro #RealEstate #AI #CapitalMarkets #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    31 min

  2. JAN 26

    The Fed Just Hit Pause—Now What?

    Mortgage Rates, Volatility & the Fed: What the Bond Market Is Really Saying Live from Corona, California—and later South Beach—KP breaks down a packed week of economic data, bond market moves, and mortgage rate signals as markets navigate another familiar early-year reset. With the 10-year Treasury breaking above key technical levels, mortgage spreads quietly improving, and volatility remaining surprisingly contained, this episode focuses on how professionals should read the signals beneath the headlines. KP explains why mortgage rates haven’t moved one-for-one with Treasury yields, how the MOVE Index reveals what bond traders actually think, and why short-term rates, labor data, and PCE inflation matter more right now than political noise. From Fed expectations and stale inflation data to government shutdown risks and spring purchase season dynamics, the episode connects macro trends to real-world mortgage and housing activity. It’s a period of tension and transition: firm GDP growth vs. softening labor, elevated rates vs. improving spreads, market anxiety vs. bond-market calm—and a reminder that purchase demand, seasonality, and discipline still drive outcomes. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Mortgage spreads explained & why volatility matters 01:41 – Live from Corona: market reset, MLK weekend & Fed uncertainty 03:00 – Short-term borrowing, housing activity & early-year demand 05:00 – ADP jobs data, labor softening & implications for rates 07:16 – The 10-year Treasury, technical breakouts & the “Elon Line” 09:20 – MOVE Index vs. VIX: bond volatility vs. stock volatility 11:40 – Fed policy, PCE inflation & why cuts aren’t imminent 14:00 – Government shutdown risk, stale data & market distortions 16:30 – GDP growth, tariffs & why the bond market isn’t panicking 18:40 – Spring purchase season, affordability & why buyers stay active 21:00 – From Corona to South Beach: industry insights & what’s ahead Follow the data. Control what you can control. Stay ready for opportunity. #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #BondMarket #InterestRates #Inflation #LaborMarket #HousingMarket #EconomicOutlook #FinancePodcast

    21 min

  3. JAN 19

    CPI Is Flat — Housing Tells the Real Story

    CPI, Housing & Rates: Cutting Through the Noise in an Election Year Live from Park City, and later back at the desk in Corona, California, KP breaks down CPI Inflation Day and what the latest data actually says about housing, inflation, rates, and the broader economy. With housing making up over 40% of CPI and showing flat month-over-month growth, this episode explains why inflation continues to cool, why rates are sitting near three-year lows, and how the Fed is navigating distorted data in an election year. KP cuts through political and media spin to focus on the facts: CPI vs. PCE, wage growth vs. inflation, a soft but stable labor market, improving mortgage spreads, and why bond markets remain calm despite geopolitical headlines. The conversation also dives into housing policy “trial balloons,” tariffs, liquidity, and what really matters for affordability, mortgage rates, and market confidence heading into the rest of the year. It’s a story of balance and patience: cooling inflation vs. lingering distortions, political noise vs. bond market signals, and short-term uncertainty vs. longer-term stability in housing and rates. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – CPI Inflation Day: why housing drives the data 01:20 – Flat housing inflation & what it means for headline vs. core CPI 02:40 – Media spin vs. facts: how to read inflation data objectively 04:00 – Housing policy talk: MBS, liquidity & election-year signals 05:40 – Labor market check-in: soft, stable, no-hire/no-fire economy 07:00 – Good inflation vs. bad inflation: wages, growth & PCE 08:30 – Tariffs, geopolitics & why markets stayed calm 10:00 – Rates at three-year lows: has housing turned the corner? 12:00 – Mortgage spreads, bond yields & why volatility matters 14:00 – Jay Powell, politics & why the Fed is waiting on cleaner data 16:30 – What all this means for affordability, housing & 2026 Stay focused. Ignore the noise. Follow the data. #CPI #Inflation #HousingMarket #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Economy #HousingPolicy #FinancePodcast

    20 min

  4. JAN 12

    Geopolitics Hit — What It Means for Your Rates

    Certainty Over Chaos: Markets, Money Flow, and Why Preparation Wins Coming to you from Corona, California and Park City, KP breaks down a volatile week where headlines screamed chaos—but markets told a very different story. From geopolitical shocks to jobs week, this episode cuts through the noise to explain how money actually moves, why rates improved, and what stability really means for housing, mortgages, and the broader economy. KP walks through why dire predictions around stocks and oil fell flat, how bond markets reacted instead to manufacturing data and labor softness, and why certainty—not fear—drives liquidity. Along the way, he connects global events to domestic outcomes: mortgage rates, homebuyer behavior, FHA strength, and the evolving labor market. This episode goes deep into the mechanics behind the headlines—bond yields, Fed expectations, jobs data distortions, housing inflation, insurance trends, and why preparation beats prediction every time. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Corona, CA: markets, headlines, and why predictions missed 2:00 – Venezuela, geopolitical shocks & what markets actually care about 4:10 – Flight to safety, bond yields & why rates improved 6:00 – ISM manufacturing, weak sectors & bond-friendly data 8:30 – Lessons from military-level preparation: “We rehearse so we can’t get it wrong” 10:45 – Jobs week preview: JOLTS, jobless claims & the BLS report 13:00 – Fed expectations, rate cuts & where policy stands 15:10 – Housing update: first-time buyers, down payments & affordability 18:20 – FHA strength, reserves & potential MIP relief 21:30 – Labor market cracks: multiple jobholders & underemployment 24:10 – Insurance trends, remodeling boom & housing supply dynamics 27:40 – Productivity, AI, automation & the future of work 31:30 – Why stability, certainty & preparation matter heading into 2026 The takeaway? Markets don’t reward panic—they reward discipline, data, and preparation. Rehearse your process. Stay grounded. And make sure you can’t get it wrong. Stay focused. Stay data-driven. Stay ready. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #Markets #FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #JobsReport #Inflation #Liquidity #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    24 min

  5. JAN 5

    Why Lower Rates Set Up a Strong 2026 Housing Market

    Low Rates, Pent-Up Demand, and the Road to 2026 From Corona, California, KP checks in during the “Void” between Christmas and New Year’s to unpack why interest rates are entering 2026 at some of the lowest levels of the year—and why that matters more than most people realize. With short-term borrowing costs down, housing demand quietly building, and borrowers watching rates closely, this episode connects the dots between Fed policy, equity growth, and real-world movement in housing and mortgages. KP walks through why the mortgage rate lock-in effect is real—but not permanent—how life events ultimately force housing decisions, and why starting the year with lower rates changes the psychology of buyers and sellers heading into spring. The discussion also covers Big Tech capital spending, existing home sales trends, and why trade shows, conversations, and consistency matter in a growth environment. Zooming out, the episode explores key macro risks and tailwinds: potential government shutdowns, election-year volatility, a new Fed chair, tariff uncertainty, and commodity signals like copper and gold. KP also dives into AI, data center buildout, productivity gains, and why scaling with technology should empower people—not replace them. The episode closes with under-the-radar positive trends and a mindset reset for leaders preparing for a busier year ahead. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Interest rates at yearly lows heading into 2026 0:39 – KP checks in from Corona, CA and the “Void” between holidays 1:27 – Fear vs optimism and why positivity matters in markets 2:16 – Why starting the year with low rates is a big deal 3:08 – Pent-up demand, Fed pauses, and borrower behavior 3:27 – The mortgage rate lock-in effect explained 4:01 –  Rate Lock-In Is Real — But Not Permanent 5:35 – Trade shows, industry vibes, and growth years 6:33 – Why 2026 is shaping up to be a busy year 7:20 –  Fed leadership and Don’t fight the Fed: policy, data, and long-term trends 8:10 – Macro Risks That Could Move Rates 8:21– Commodities check: oil, lumber, copper, gold, and what they signal 9:31 – AI, data centers, and American innovation 10:21 – Scaling with AI without cutting people 11:28 – Positive trends heading into the new year 11:43 – Final mindset reset and New Year message Stay focused. Stay consistent. Stay ready for growth. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #MortgageMarket #InterestRates #Housing #RealEstate #AI #CapitalMarkets #FedPolicy #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    13 min

  6. 12/29/2025

    Why Bad Economic News Is Good for Housing

    The Fed, Liquidity & The Slowdown Ahead: What’s Really Moving the Economy From Laguna Beach at the California Mortgage Bankers Association retreat, KP breaks down the major forces shaping today’s markets, from weakening labor data to the Fed’s tightening cycle and the growing need for more liquidity in the system. As quantitative tightening winds down and global central banks shift their stance, KP explains how the Fed’s balance sheet must grow with GDP, why the market continues to lead the Fed, and where consumers are starting to show real cracks, from ADP softness to rising long-term unemployment. It’s an economy balancing slowing momentum and cautious optimism: cooling inflation vs. fragile spending, hawkish rate cuts vs. market resilience, and global policy changes vs. money flows searching for direction. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Laguna Beach: CMBA insights & the state of the market 01:12 – End of QT? Why liquidity must expand as GDP grows 02:28 – Labor weakness: ADP slowdown, small-biz job losses & long-term unemployment 03:44 – Consumer fatigue: savings drawdowns, credit stress & shifting demand 05:02 – What to expect at the next Fed meeting: hawkish cut or pause? 06:20 – Global moves: Bank of Japan rate hike risks & shifting money flows 07:36 – Inflation & PCE: what the data really signals 08:48 – Market reaction: equities, crypto & the Santa Claus rally setup 10:05 – Housing & mortgage implications in a slowing economy 11:22 – Why the doomsayers were wrong — and what to watch next Stay informed. Stay ahead. Stay in the market. 🔗 https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #LaborMarket #Liquidity #Inflation #PCEReport #HousingMarket #MarketUpdate #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    16 min

  7. 12/22/2025

    Jobs, Inflation & Rates Matter This Week

    Labor, Inflation & Rates: Reading the Signals Into 2026 Live from Corona, California, KB breaks down a critical end-of-year data stretch and what it really means for the economy, mortgage rates, and the markets heading into 2026. With jobless claims rising, labor quietly softening, and inflation sending mixed signals, this episode cuts through the noise to explain how the Fed is weighing its true “tri-mandate” and why markets are stuck in a tug-of-war. KB dives into why headline jobs numbers may be overstated, how bond markets are interpreting upcoming labor and CPI reports, and why refinancing activity has been stronger than most people realize. From housing trends and seasonal hiring to global central bank moves, quad witching, and the ever-important 10-year Treasury, this episode connects the dots between labor, inflation, and the flow of money. It’s a moment of balance and tension: softening jobs vs. resilient spending, falling inflation vs. skeptical markets, and short-term volatility vs. longer-term opportunity. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Corona: end-of-year markets & why this data week matters 01:18 – Jobless claims as a leading indicator & what’s really happening in labor 03:32 – The Fed’s “tri-mandate” and why labor is now the focus 05:09 – Why refinancing quietly surged despite negative headlines 07:16 – Seasonal hiring, jobs reports & why Q4 often runs hot 08:34 – The 10-year Treasury, mortgage spreads & the “Elon Line” 10:00 – CPI, shelter inflation & how one report can move rates 11:40 – Overstated jobs, QCEW revisions & Powell’s 60k comment 13:00 – Stock market outlook: Santa Claus rally vs. Q1 volatility 14:40 – Global risks: central banks, liquidity & market pinch points 16:00 – Looking ahead to 2026: labor, rates & where opportunity may emerge Stay informed. Stay disciplined. Follow the data. #InterestRates #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #Inflation #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #BondMarket #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FinancePodcast

    30 min

  8. 12/15/2025

    Mortgage Payments Are Dropping — Here’s What’s Next

    The Fog Lifts: Fed Cuts, Falling Rates, and Mortgage Momentum From Corona, California, KP breaks down a pivotal Fed week where long-delayed data finally comes into focus. With inflation trending lower, labor showing signs of softening, and the Fed delivering a hawkish cut paired with a more dovish tone, this episode connects the dots between monetary policy, liquidity, and what it all means for mortgage rates, housing demand, and the road to 2026. KP dives deep into the “plumbing” of the economy—Core PCE, the dot plot, SOMA, balance sheet mechanics, and why liquidity matters just as much as rate cuts. You’ll also hear how falling monthly mortgage payments, improving spreads, and stabilizing rates are changing borrower psychology, setting the stage for a stronger spring purchase season. The episode also explores big-picture tailwinds: AI-driven productivity, capital spending from Big Tech, sector outlooks, regulatory shifts in LO comp and FHA, and why healthcare, financials, and industrials could outperform. Plus, KP shares market insights, a personal Nvidia bet, and what lenders should be doing now to prepare for the next growth cycle. Episode Highlights: 00:00 - KP checks in from Corona, CA & why the data fog is finally clearing 00:00 - Why markets stayed range-bound after the Fed rate cut 5:19 -  SOMA, liquidity, and “stealth QE” explained 7:02 - AI, Nvidia, Big Tech spending & productivity gains 8:31 - Core PCE, inflation trends, & why the Fed had room to cut 9:33 - Core PCE Down & monthly payments trending lower 10:41 -Purchase Demand and Refinancing Activity 12:01 - The “fog of data” and borrower psychology heading into spring 13:16 - Regulatory tailwinds & small-dollar loans 13:26 - LO comp setup and FHA monthly premium  15:38 - KP checks in from Corona, CA and The 10-year Treasury range and the “Snoop Dogg line” 16:25 - Hawkish cut, dovish press conference & reading the dot plot 17:40 - Job openings and what labor data is really signaling 22:05 - Inflation Concerns Rising and Q1 Impacts Explained 24:15 - Shelter Component of Inflation coming down 25:30 - What clearer data means for rates ahead 29:30 - Final take on the Fed, expectations, and next moves Stay focused. Stay data-driven. Stay ready. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #MortgageMarket #InterestRates #Inflation #Housing #FedCuts #AI #Nvidia #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    31 min
See All (206)

About

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Information

  • Creator
    Kevin Peranio
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    206
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 KP Talks Dollars and Sense
  • Show Website
    KP Talks Dollars and Sense