KP Talks Dollars and Sense

Kevin Peranio
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KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

  1. 3D AGO

    AI, Oil Prices, and Mortgage Rates

    Productivity, AI, and the Flow of Money: Why Deflation May Be Closer Than Inflation From Waikiki, Hawaii, KP checks in with a wide angle view of the forces quietly shaping inflation, interest rates, housing demand, and the broader economy. With fresh PCE inflation data on deck, the 10-year Treasury hovering near key levels, and global uncertainty lingering, this episode explains why worker productivity—and not just Fed policy, may be the real driver of where rates go next. KP breaks down how rising productivity, fueled in part by rapid AI adoption, is creating deflationary pressure even as the economy continues to grow. He explores why tech giants like Microsoft and Google are continuing to invest billions into AI infrastructure, how those investments are already delivering measurable returns, and why the market is questioning when the massive spending will fully pay off. The conversation connects inflation trends, energy prices, and weakening job data with the bigger structural forces shaping the economy, including the massive concentration of wealth among Americans over 55, the resilience of consumer spending, and why the U.S. may be threading the needle with a rare engineered soft landing. KP also explains how money constantly rotates between stocks and bonds, why market volatility is normal, and how geopolitical risks could quickly change the inflation outlook. The episode closes with a grounded look at housing demand, the spring buying season, and why opportunity still exists for those willing to stay proactive, even in a complex and shifting environment. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Why rising worker productivity is deflationary 0:20 – Credit conditions, borrowing rates, and corporate spending 0:44 – KP checks in from Waikiki and sets the macro backdrop 1:10 – Inflation data, PCE, and the importance of the 10-year Treasury 1:32 – Mortgage policy discussions and Washington’s role 2:40 – The flow of money between stocks and bonds explained 3:20 – Tech volatility, AI spending, and ROI concerns 4:20 – AI adoption, productivity gains, and corporate efficiency 5:10 – Energy prices, CPI trends, and inflation outlook 6:00 – Food inflation, job market weakness, and Fed implications 7:20 – Wealth concentration, consumer spending, and GDP strength 8:20 – Soft landing vs. rolling recession: where we stand now 8:40 – Housing demand and the spring buying opportunity Stay focused. Stay productive. Stay ready for opportunity. Follow for more insights: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #Inflation #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #AI #Productivity #InterestRates #Macro #RealEstate #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    10 min

  2. FEB 16

    AI, Bonds and the Housing Market Shift

    Volatility, AI, and the Fight Between Strong Data and Falling Rates From Dallas, Texas, and Corona, California, KP checks in during one of the most confusing stretches in recent memory—where strong jobs data would normally push rates higher, yet bond yields are falling, and mortgage rates are improving. This episode breaks down why markets aren’t behaving the way headlines suggest, and how volatility, money flows, and uncertainty around AI and economic growth are reshaping the outlook for housing and interest rates. KP explains how weakening labor trends, shifting bond market signals, and stock market rotations are quietly creating better rate conditions ahead of the spring purchase season. He also shares insights from the HousingWire Economic Summit, including why wage growth is beginning to converge with home prices, why builder concessions have surged to nearly 10%, and why housing activity may accelerate despite recent slow sales reports. Zooming out, the episode explores the massive capital pouring into artificial intelligence—and why leaders like Elon Musk believe AI and robotics may be the only path to outgrow America’s fiscal instability. KP connects the dots between AI investment, productivity gains, energy constraints, and long-term economic survival, while also sharing practical mindset lessons on discipline, limiting factors, and how top performers operate during volatile cycles. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Elon Musk’s warning: fiscal instability and AI as the way out 00:50 – KP checks in from Dallas at the HousingWire Economic Summit 02:20 – Why job reports are volatile—and how they impact mortgage rates 04:00 – Labor market weakening and what it means for interest rates 06:00 – AI, productivity, and the future of economic growth 08:40 – America’s fiscal path and the role of robotics and AI 10:00 – Sales rallies, mindset, and performing during volatility 12:20 – Stock market volatility and money rotating into bonds 13:40 – Strong jobs report—but falling interest rates? Here’s why 16:20 – Why bond markets often lead the Fed 18:00 – Housing affordability, wages, and home price convergence 20:00 – Existing home sales slowdown—and why it may not matter 22:00 – Builder concessions surge and spring housing outlook Volatility creates opportunity. Discipline turns it into results. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #InterestRates #FederalReserve #AI #RealEstate #BondMarket #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    24 min

  3. FEB 9

    Mortgage Rates Are Rising Again — Here’s Why

    Inside the Mortgage Industry: Policy, Rates, and the Real Forces Shaping Housing Coming to you from Amelia Island, Florida, KP delivers a front-row perspective from the Independent Mortgage Banker (IMB) Conference—where industry leaders, executives, and owner-operators gather to confront the biggest challenges facing mortgage banking today. Designed exclusively for independent mortgage bankers, the IMB Conference brings together decision-makers to discuss regulatory shifts, technology adoption, and strategies to strengthen profitability in a rapidly changing market. In this episode, KP cuts through the conference buzz to unpack what actually matters: regulatory pressure across states, the true ROI of AI in lending, and the push to reduce loan-level pricing adjustments (LLPAs)—a key cost driver in conventional mortgages tied to credit risk and market stability. He also explores why housing affordability debates, FHFA policy changes, and HUD’s massive reserve levels are becoming central to the future of homeownership. KP connects the dots between industry policy and macroeconomics—bond yields, Fed uncertainty, labor market weakness, and delayed government data—to explain why mortgage rates are moving the way they are and what comes next. From Treasury supply and inflation signals to Kevin Warsh’s vision for shrinking the Fed balance sheet, this episode reveals how structural forces—not headlines—are shaping markets. Along the way, KP breaks down the evolving role of independent mortgage bankers, who now dominate originations and servicing, and explains why diversification, technology investment, and policy reform will define winners and losers in the next cycle. This episode goes deep into the mechanics behind the noise—mortgage spreads, Fed expectations, credit policy, labor trends, and market volatility—showing why strategy, data, and long-term thinking matter more than short-term predictions. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Amelia Island: inside the IMB Conference 1:40 – Regulatory pressure, state enforcement & industry concerns 3:00 – AI in mortgage lending: hype vs. real ROI 5:20 – LLPAs, affordability & the FHFA policy debate 8:10 – HUD reserves, FHA borrowers & housing affordability 11:30 – Independent mortgage bankers and market dominance 14:20 – Treasury yields, Fed policy & mortgage rate dynamics 18:00 – Delayed data, labor weakness & macro uncertainty 22:10 – Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet & systemic inflation 26:30 – Stock market volatility, AI spending & corporate earnings 30:40 – Bonds vs. stocks: what markets are really signaling 35:10 – The future of housing, policy reform & industry strategy The takeaway? Housing doesn’t move on headlines—it moves on policy, liquidity, and macro fundamentals. Understand the system. Follow the data. And position your strategy before the cycle turns. Stay grounded. Stay analytical. Stay ahead. Follow for more insights: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #FHFA #IMB #MortgageBanking #Economy #Liquidity #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    24 min

  4. FEB 2

    $200B Move Driving Mortgage Rates Lower

    Liquidity, the Fed, and the Hidden Drivers of Mortgage Rates From Corona, California, KP returns with a deep dive into the forces quietly shaping mortgage rates, housing demand, and market sentiment as the year unfolds. With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac expanding their balance sheets, billions flowing into mortgage-backed securities, and the Fed navigating stale data and political pressure, this episode reveals why today’s rate environment is more fragile—and more important—than it appears. KP breaks down how liquidity injections are compressing spreads and stabilizing mortgage rates, why lower rates are unlocking existing home inventory, and how borrower psychology is shifting after years of rate volatility. The conversation connects Fed policy, labor market trends, Big Tech earnings, and capital flows between stocks and bonds—showing how macro decisions translate into real-world mortgage activity. Zooming out, the episode explores the biggest uncertainties ahead: a potential government shutdown, the announcement of a new Fed chair, outdated economic models, slowing wage growth, rising consumer debt, and the growing gap between headline GDP and everyday economic reality. KP also examines the role of AI, data centers, and hyperscalers in driving growth—and why economic expansion increasingly feels like a “spectator sport” for most Americans. The episode closes with insights from Davos, updated mortgage forecasts, and a grounded outlook on where rates, housing supply, and the economy may head next—offering clarity for industry leaders, lenders, and anyone trying to navigate an increasingly complex financial landscape. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Mortgage-backed securities and liquidity shaping rates 0:44 – KP checks in from Corona, CA and sets the macro backdrop 1:20 – Tribute, markets, and the emotional side of industry leadership 2:33 – Fed week: expectations, rate levels, and market sentiment 3:00 – Why lower mortgage rates are changing borrower behavior 4:07 – Fannie, Freddie, and the $200B balance sheet expansion 5:59 – Liquidity, volatility, and the psychology of housing demand 7:10 – Existing home inventory and the real supply unlock 8:20 – Government shutdown risk and political pressure on policy 10:00 – Fed independence, outdated models, and data uncertainty 12:00 – GDP vs reality: why growth feels uneven 14:00 – Big Tech, AI, and capital flows 16:00 – Mortgage forecasts and rate outlook 18:00 – Davos insights and global economic signals 20:00 – Final outlook on rates, housing, and market momentum Stay focused. Stay data-driven. Stay ready for opportunity. Follow for more insights: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Liquidity #Macro #RealEstate #AI #CapitalMarkets #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    31 min

  5. JAN 26

    The Fed Just Hit Pause—Now What?

    Mortgage Rates, Volatility & the Fed: What the Bond Market Is Really Saying Live from Corona, California—and later South Beach—KP breaks down a packed week of economic data, bond market moves, and mortgage rate signals as markets navigate another familiar early-year reset. With the 10-year Treasury breaking above key technical levels, mortgage spreads quietly improving, and volatility remaining surprisingly contained, this episode focuses on how professionals should read the signals beneath the headlines. KP explains why mortgage rates haven’t moved one-for-one with Treasury yields, how the MOVE Index reveals what bond traders actually think, and why short-term rates, labor data, and PCE inflation matter more right now than political noise. From Fed expectations and stale inflation data to government shutdown risks and spring purchase season dynamics, the episode connects macro trends to real-world mortgage and housing activity. It’s a period of tension and transition: firm GDP growth vs. softening labor, elevated rates vs. improving spreads, market anxiety vs. bond-market calm—and a reminder that purchase demand, seasonality, and discipline still drive outcomes. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Mortgage spreads explained & why volatility matters 01:41 – Live from Corona: market reset, MLK weekend & Fed uncertainty 03:00 – Short-term borrowing, housing activity & early-year demand 05:00 – ADP jobs data, labor softening & implications for rates 07:16 – The 10-year Treasury, technical breakouts & the “Elon Line” 09:20 – MOVE Index vs. VIX: bond volatility vs. stock volatility 11:40 – Fed policy, PCE inflation & why cuts aren’t imminent 14:00 – Government shutdown risk, stale data & market distortions 16:30 – GDP growth, tariffs & why the bond market isn’t panicking 18:40 – Spring purchase season, affordability & why buyers stay active 21:00 – From Corona to South Beach: industry insights & what’s ahead Follow the data. Control what you can control. Stay ready for opportunity. #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #BondMarket #InterestRates #Inflation #LaborMarket #HousingMarket #EconomicOutlook #FinancePodcast

    21 min

  6. JAN 19

    CPI Is Flat — Housing Tells the Real Story

    CPI, Housing & Rates: Cutting Through the Noise in an Election Year Live from Park City, and later back at the desk in Corona, California, KP breaks down CPI Inflation Day and what the latest data actually says about housing, inflation, rates, and the broader economy. With housing making up over 40% of CPI and showing flat month-over-month growth, this episode explains why inflation continues to cool, why rates are sitting near three-year lows, and how the Fed is navigating distorted data in an election year. KP cuts through political and media spin to focus on the facts: CPI vs. PCE, wage growth vs. inflation, a soft but stable labor market, improving mortgage spreads, and why bond markets remain calm despite geopolitical headlines. The conversation also dives into housing policy “trial balloons,” tariffs, liquidity, and what really matters for affordability, mortgage rates, and market confidence heading into the rest of the year. It’s a story of balance and patience: cooling inflation vs. lingering distortions, political noise vs. bond market signals, and short-term uncertainty vs. longer-term stability in housing and rates. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – CPI Inflation Day: why housing drives the data 01:20 – Flat housing inflation & what it means for headline vs. core CPI 02:40 – Media spin vs. facts: how to read inflation data objectively 04:00 – Housing policy talk: MBS, liquidity & election-year signals 05:40 – Labor market check-in: soft, stable, no-hire/no-fire economy 07:00 – Good inflation vs. bad inflation: wages, growth & PCE 08:30 – Tariffs, geopolitics & why markets stayed calm 10:00 – Rates at three-year lows: has housing turned the corner? 12:00 – Mortgage spreads, bond yields & why volatility matters 14:00 – Jay Powell, politics & why the Fed is waiting on cleaner data 16:30 – What all this means for affordability, housing & 2026 Stay focused. Ignore the noise. Follow the data. #CPI #Inflation #HousingMarket #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Economy #HousingPolicy #FinancePodcast

    20 min

  7. JAN 12

    Geopolitics Hit — What It Means for Your Rates

    Certainty Over Chaos: Markets, Money Flow, and Why Preparation Wins Coming to you from Corona, California and Park City, KP breaks down a volatile week where headlines screamed chaos—but markets told a very different story. From geopolitical shocks to jobs week, this episode cuts through the noise to explain how money actually moves, why rates improved, and what stability really means for housing, mortgages, and the broader economy. KP walks through why dire predictions around stocks and oil fell flat, how bond markets reacted instead to manufacturing data and labor softness, and why certainty—not fear—drives liquidity. Along the way, he connects global events to domestic outcomes: mortgage rates, homebuyer behavior, FHA strength, and the evolving labor market. This episode goes deep into the mechanics behind the headlines—bond yields, Fed expectations, jobs data distortions, housing inflation, insurance trends, and why preparation beats prediction every time. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Live from Corona, CA: markets, headlines, and why predictions missed 2:00 – Venezuela, geopolitical shocks & what markets actually care about 4:10 – Flight to safety, bond yields & why rates improved 6:00 – ISM manufacturing, weak sectors & bond-friendly data 8:30 – Lessons from military-level preparation: “We rehearse so we can’t get it wrong” 10:45 – Jobs week preview: JOLTS, jobless claims & the BLS report 13:00 – Fed expectations, rate cuts & where policy stands 15:10 – Housing update: first-time buyers, down payments & affordability 18:20 – FHA strength, reserves & potential MIP relief 21:30 – Labor market cracks: multiple jobholders & underemployment 24:10 – Insurance trends, remodeling boom & housing supply dynamics 27:40 – Productivity, AI, automation & the future of work 31:30 – Why stability, certainty & preparation matter heading into 2026 The takeaway? Markets don’t reward panic—they reward discipline, data, and preparation. Rehearse your process. Stay grounded. And make sure you can’t get it wrong. Stay focused. Stay data-driven. Stay ready. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #Markets #FederalReserve #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #JobsReport #Inflation #Liquidity #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    24 min

  8. JAN 5

    Why Lower Rates Set Up a Strong 2026 Housing Market

    Low Rates, Pent-Up Demand, and the Road to 2026 From Corona, California, KP checks in during the “Void” between Christmas and New Year’s to unpack why interest rates are entering 2026 at some of the lowest levels of the year—and why that matters more than most people realize. With short-term borrowing costs down, housing demand quietly building, and borrowers watching rates closely, this episode connects the dots between Fed policy, equity growth, and real-world movement in housing and mortgages. KP walks through why the mortgage rate lock-in effect is real—but not permanent—how life events ultimately force housing decisions, and why starting the year with lower rates changes the psychology of buyers and sellers heading into spring. The discussion also covers Big Tech capital spending, existing home sales trends, and why trade shows, conversations, and consistency matter in a growth environment. Zooming out, the episode explores key macro risks and tailwinds: potential government shutdowns, election-year volatility, a new Fed chair, tariff uncertainty, and commodity signals like copper and gold. KP also dives into AI, data center buildout, productivity gains, and why scaling with technology should empower people—not replace them. The episode closes with under-the-radar positive trends and a mindset reset for leaders preparing for a busier year ahead. Episode Highlights: 00:00 – Interest rates at yearly lows heading into 2026 0:39 – KP checks in from Corona, CA and the “Void” between holidays 1:27 – Fear vs optimism and why positivity matters in markets 2:16 – Why starting the year with low rates is a big deal 3:08 – Pent-up demand, Fed pauses, and borrower behavior 3:27 – The mortgage rate lock-in effect explained 4:01 –  Rate Lock-In Is Real — But Not Permanent 5:35 – Trade shows, industry vibes, and growth years 6:33 – Why 2026 is shaping up to be a busy year 7:20 –  Fed leadership and Don’t fight the Fed: policy, data, and long-term trends 8:10 – Macro Risks That Could Move Rates 8:21– Commodities check: oil, lumber, copper, gold, and what they signal 9:31 – AI, data centers, and American innovation 10:21 – Scaling with AI without cutting people 11:28 – Positive trends heading into the new year 11:43 – Final mindset reset and New Year message Stay focused. Stay consistent. Stay ready for growth. Follow for more updates: https://linktr.ee/kptalksdollarsandsense #Economy #FederalReserve #MortgageMarket #InterestRates #Housing #RealEstate #AI #CapitalMarkets #FedPolicy #FinancePodcast #KPTalksDollarsAndSense

    13 min
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About

KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Information

  • Creator
    Kevin Peranio
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    209
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 KP Talks Dollars and Sense
  • Show Website
    KP Talks Dollars and Sense