STUMP - Death and Taxes

Mary Pat Campbell (aka Meep)

Meep (Mary Pat Campbell) talks about mortality trends and/or public finance issues, usually with a connection to current events. marypatcampbell.substack.com

  1. Apr 30

    April Awareness: Autism, Cancer, Finance, and Poetry

    April is the cruelest month in dropping all sorts of awareness topics on our heads: Autism, Cancer (various types - I covered testicular cancer earlier this month), financial literacy, and poetry… suppose we become “aware” of all this? What are we supposed to do with all this awareness and knowledge? Episode Links Poems T.S. Eliot, The Waste Land I. The Burial of the Dead April is the cruellest month, breeding Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing Memory and desire, stirring Dull roots with spring rain. The Poetry Foundation, Poem Guide by Tyler Malone: The Waste Land The initial declaration of The Waste Land—“April is the cruellest month”—is clear enough in meaning, even if it defies readers’ expectations. The opening is a subversion of the first lines of the General Prologue of Geoffrey Chaucer’s The Canterbury Tales. General Prologue of Chaucer’s The Canterbury Tales Whan that Aprille with his shoures soote, The droghte of March hath perced to the roote, And bathed every veyne in swich licóur Of which vertú engendred is the flour; Whan Zephirus eek with his swete breeth Inspired hath in every holt and heeth The tendre croppes, and the yonge sonne Hath in the Ram his halfe cours y-ronne, And smale foweles maken melodye, That slepen al the nyght with open ye, So priketh hem Natúre in hir corages, Thanne longen folk to goon on pilgrimages, And palmeres for to seken straunge strondes, To ferne halwes, kowthe in sondry londes; And specially, from every shires ende Of Engelond, to Caunterbury they wende, The hooly blisful martir for to seke, That hem hath holpen whan that they were seeke. Translation of first 18 lines of the General Prologue, Wikipedia Walt Whitman, When Lilacs Last in the Dooryard Bloom’d 1 When lilacs last in the dooryard bloom’d, And the great star early droop’d in the western sky in the night, I mourn’d, and yet shall mourn with ever-returning spring. Ever-returning spring, trinity sure to me you bring, Lilac blooming perennial and drooping star in the west, And thought of him I love. Autism Awareness Livejournal posts April 2026: Autism Awareness Month, April 2026 April 2011: Autism Awareness Month and Diarmuid Oct 2009: I come to praise the Fred S. Keller school Sept 2009: Breakthrough! Aug 2009: Profile of the founder of D’s school, and a few details STUMP posts Mar 2014: Can Disney Films Teach Social Skills? - the sole post by my late husband Stu Just as no two people are alike, the son in the article, Owen, and our son, D., are different in their disabilities. D. had no language loss — because he didn’t have language skills to lose. He spoke rarely but always sang songs he loved. D. didn’t withdraw from the world and has always been loving, cuddly and interested in any adult who gives him attention. I can go on but let’s focus on a commonality between the two. They love videos. Apr 2025: Aunt Betsey & Mr. Dick — from David Copperfield [Dec 2019] Mar 2021: Cuomo Killing the Disabled and the Elderly: This Time It’s Personal Cancer The National Cancer Institute’s latest official SEER statistics — based on the November 2025 data submission (covering diagnoses through 2023) and publicly released in April 2026 via SEER*Explorer — confirm what many in insurance and benefits have sensed: early-onset cancers among adults under 50 are accelerating, even as overall age-adjusted cancer rates remain relatively stable with only a modest recent uptick. Other Awareness April: Financial Literacy Month April 2026 Financial Literacy Month Resources at MyMoney.gov Resources at Council for Economic Education Dec 2024: An Actual Murderer Among the Recently Commuted by Biden (a murderer involved with life insurance fraud) May 2022: Podcast episode — Don’t sell insurance to the Mafia May 2022: Podcast episode - Fraudulent Life Insurers Jun 2024: Podcast episode — Fraud and Embezzlement! How to Prevent and Detect Dec 2024: Revisiting Fraud & Embezzlement Episode: Rita Crundwell and Biden Commutation May 2022: Podcast episode — Don’t perpetrate financial fraud in spreadsheets Nov 2022: Podcast episode — FTX, Dickens, and Business Fraud STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

    40 min
  2. Apr 1

    Problem Gambling: Addicts, Lotteries, Sports, and Pensions

    March is Problem Gambling Awareness Month (were you aware?) — and many people are becoming aware of an increasing problem with all sorts of gambling and betting being available 24/7, in easy reach, on our phones. People wrestling with gambling debts and gambling addiction are not a new phenomenon, as these have featured as major items in literature (which I mention)… and unfortunately, too many politicians have pointed to people’s attraction to gambling via lotteries in supposedly helping to fund governmental functions. Episode Links National Council on Problem Gambling FAQs: What is Problem Gambling? What is problem gambling? Problem gambling (sometimes referred to as “gambling addiction” or “gambling disorder”) is gambling behavior that is damaging to a person or their family, often disrupting their daily life and career. Anyone who gambles can be at-risk for developing a gambling problem. Gambling disorder is a recognized mental health diagnosis. Some warning signs of a gambling problem are: * Thinking about gambling all the time. * Feeling the need to bet more money and more often. * Going back to try to win your money back (“chasing losses”). * Feeling restless or irritable when trying to stop or cut down. * Feeling like you can’t control yourself. * Gambling despite negative consequences. * In extreme cases, problem gambling can cause bankruptcy, legal problems, losing your job or your family, and thinking about suicide. For more information on the American Psychiatric Association’s criteria for gambling addiction, visit DSM 5 at www.psych.org. Problem Gambling Awareness Month (PGAM) Problem Gambling Awareness Month is a nationwide grassroots campaign, held annually in March, that seeks to increase public awareness of problem gambling and promote prevention, treatment, and recovery services. PGAM Goals * To increase public awareness of problem gambling and the availability of prevention, treatment and recovery services. * To encourage healthcare providers to screen clients for problem gambling. Literary Gambling The Old Curiosity Shop by Dickens at Project Gutenberg Chapter 29 excerpt to Chapter 30: The child sat by, and watched its progress with a troubled mind. Regardless of the run of luck, and mindful only of the desperate passion which had its hold upon her grandfather, losses and gains were to her alike. Exulting in some brief triumph, or cast down by a defeat, there he sat so wild and restless, so feverishly and intensely anxious, so terribly eager, so ravenous for the paltry stakes, that she could have almost better borne to see him dead. And yet she was the innocent cause of all this torture, and he, gambling with such a savage thirst for gain as the most insatiable gambler never felt, had not one selfish thought! On the contrary, the other three—knaves and gamesters by their trade—while intent upon their game, were yet as cool and quiet as if every virtue had been centered in their breasts. Sometimes one would look up to smile to another, or to snuff the feeble candle, or to glance at the lightning as it shot through the open window and fluttering curtain, or to listen to some louder peal of thunder than the rest, with a kind of momentary impatience, as if it put him out; but there they sat, with a calm indifference to everything but their cards, perfect philosophers in appearance, and with no greater show of passion or excitement than if they had been made of stone. The storm had raged for full three hours; the lightning had grown fainter and less frequent; the thunder, from seeming to roll and break above their heads, had gradually died away into a deep hoarse distance; and still the game went on, and still the anxious child was quite forgotten. CHAPTER 30 At length the play came to an end, and Mr Isaac List rose the only winner. Mat and the landlord bore their losses with professional fortitude. Isaac pocketed his gains with the air of a man who had quite made up his mind to win, all along, and was neither surprised nor pleased. Nell’s little purse was exhausted; but although it lay empty by his side, and the other players had now risen from the table, the old man sat poring over the cards, dealing them as they had been dealt before, and turning up the different hands to see what each man would have held if they had still been playing. He was quite absorbed in this occupation, when the child drew near and laid her hand upon his shoulder, telling him it was near midnight. ‘See the curse of poverty, Nell,’ he said, pointing to the packs he had spread out upon the table. ‘If I could have gone on a little longer, only a little longer, the luck would have turned on my side. Yes, it’s as plain as the marks upon the cards. See here—and there—and here again.’ ‘Put them away,’ urged the child. ‘Try to forget them.’ ‘Try to forget them!’ he rejoined, raising his haggard face to hers, and regarding her with an incredulous stare. ‘To forget them! How are we ever to grow rich if I forget them?’ The child could only shake her head. ‘No, no, Nell,’ said the old man, patting her cheek; ‘they must not be forgotten. We must make amends for this as soon as we can. Patience—patience, and we’ll right thee yet, I promise thee. Lose to-day, win to-morrow. And nothing can be won without anxiety and care—nothing. Come, I am ready.’ ‘Do you know what the time is?’ said Mr Groves, who was smoking with his friends. ‘Past twelve o’clock—’ ‘—And a rainy night,’ added the stout man. ‘The Valiant Soldier, by James Groves. Good beds. Cheap entertainment for man and beast,’ said Mr Groves, quoting his sign-board. ‘Half-past twelve o’clock.’ ‘It’s very late,’ said the uneasy child. ‘I wish we had gone before. What will they think of us! It will be two o’clock by the time we get back. What would it cost, sir, if we stopped here?’ ‘Two good beds, one-and-sixpence; supper and beer one shilling; total two shillings and sixpence,’ replied the Valiant Soldier. Now, Nell had still the piece of gold sewn in her dress; and when she came to consider the lateness of the hour, and the somnolent habits of Mrs Jarley, and to imagine the state of consternation in which they would certainly throw that good lady by knocking her up in the middle of the night—and when she reflected, on the other hand, that if they remained where they were, and rose early in the morning, they might get back before she awoke, and could plead the violence of the storm by which they had been overtaken, as a good apology for their absence—she decided, after a great deal of hesitation, to remain. She therefore took her grandfather aside, and telling him that she had still enough left to defray the cost of their lodging, proposed that they should stay there for the night. ‘If I had had but that money before—If I had only known of it a few minutes ago!’ muttered the old man. ‘We will decide to stop here if you please,’ said Nell, turning hastily to the landlord. ‘I think that’s prudent,’ returned Mr Groves. ‘You shall have your suppers directly.’ Accordingly, when Mr Groves had smoked his pipe out, knocked out the ashes, and placed it carefully in a corner of the fire-place, with the bowl downwards, he brought in the bread and cheese, and beer, with many high encomiums upon their excellence, and bade his guests fall to, and make themselves at home. Nell and her grandfather ate sparingly, for both were occupied with their own reflections; the other gentlemen, for whose constitutions beer was too weak and tame a liquid, consoled themselves with spirits and tobacco. As they would leave the house very early in the morning, the child was anxious to pay for their entertainment before they retired to bed. But as she felt the necessity of concealing her little hoard from her grandfather, and had to change the piece of gold, she took it secretly from its place of concealment, and embraced an opportunity of following the landlord when he went out of the room, and tendered it to him in the little bar. What next happens: Little Nell gets her coin changed in a separate room, trying to conceal the money from her grandfather and the card sharps, but after she falls asleep, somebody comes into her room and steals the money she has hidden underneath her pillow….she thinks it may have been one of the card sharps, and maybe they will attack her grandfather, so she goes to check…. The idea flashed suddenly upon her—what if it entered there, and had a design upon the old man’s life! She turned faint and sick. It did. It went in. There was a light inside. The figure was now within the chamber, and she, still dumb—quite dumb, and almost senseless—stood looking on. The door was partly open. Not knowing what she meant to do, but meaning to preserve him or be killed herself, she staggered forward and looked in. What sight was that which met her view! The bed had not been lain on, but was smooth and empty. And at a table sat the old man himself; the only living creature there; his white face pinched and sharpened by the greediness which made his eyes unnaturally bright—counting the money of which his hands had robbed her. The Gambler by Dostoevsky at Project Gutenberg Wikipedia article on The Gambler Dostoevsky gambled for the first time at the tables at Wiesbaden in 1863.[2] From that time till 1871, when his passion for gambling subsided, he played at Baden-Baden, Homburg, and Saxon-les-Bains frequently, often beginning by winning a small amount of money and losing far more in the end.[2] He first mentions his interest in gambling in a letter he sent to his first wife’s sister on 1 September 1863 describing his initial success:[3] Please do not think that, in my joy over not having lost, I am showing off by saying that I possess the secret of how to win instead of losing. I really do know the secret — it is terribly silly and simple

    56 min
  3. Mar 21

    Paul Ehrlich and the Murder-Suicide of Expertise

    Paul Ehrlich died recently at the age of 93, best known as a Malthusian in a modern age of growth and then population decline…with no famines, except man-made ones. His best-known book was The Population Bomb, published in 1968, which was already wrong when it was published. It’s fine to attack the man’s ideas, as they were just plain wrong, he was told this when alive, and he had never admitted this. While not the only person with his ideas, he contributed to the suicide of expertise, by claiming authority in the face of his own falsity. Episode Links Media Obituaries NYT, 15 Mar 2026: Paul R. Ehrlich, Who Alarmed the World With ‘The Population Bomb,’ Dies at 93 His best-selling 1968 book, which forecast global famines, made him a leader of the environmental movement. But he faced criticism when his predictions proved premature. Paul R. Ehrlich, an eminent ecologist and population scientist whose best-selling book, ‘’The Population Bomb,’‘ was celebrated as a prescient warning of a coming age of food shortages and famine but later criticized by conservatives and academic rivals for what they called its sky-is-falling rhetoric, died on Friday in Palo Alto, Calif. He was 93. His death, at a nursing facility in the retirement community where he lived, was caused by complications of cancer, his daughter, Lisa Marie Daniel, said. As a young professor of biology at Stanford University in the mid-1960s, Dr. Ehrlich was known for his absorbing lectures on evolution, in which he described what plants and animals faced on a planet stressed by industrial pollution and rapid population growth. He distilled those lectures into an article published in December 1967 in New Scientist magazine. Six months later, encouraged by David Brower, the executive director of the environmental group the Sierra Club, to write a book on the subject, Dr. Ehrlich published ‘’The Population Bomb.’‘ In 233 pages, he asserted that the planet’s condition began to deteriorate rapidly in the 1950s, when the rate of population growth exceeded the increase in food production -- or, as he put it, when ‘’the stork passed the plow.’‘ He called on couples to limit their families to one or two children. Witty, knowledgeable and not at all reticent, Dr. Ehrlich gained a huge audience on television, especially on ‘’The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson,’‘ which he appeared on roughly 20 times. His forecast of food riots in the United States and of imminent global famines caused by escalating population growth found a worldwide readership. One of the best-selling nonfiction books about the environment to date, ‘’The Population Bomb’‘ sold three million copies and transformed Dr. Ehrlich, who was 37 at the time, into one of the global environmental movement’s most recognized leaders. His influence motivated international governments to convene conferences on controlling population, and his message was heard in private homes across the industrialized world as couples conceived fewer children. Dr. Ehrlich expanded on his thesis in ‘’The End of Affluence’‘ (1974), which he wrote with his wife, Anne H. Ehrlich, who wrote or edited 15 books with him. The book forecast a ‘’nutritional disaster’‘ in the 1970s, predicting that ‘’before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity.’‘ Such bold predictions, some of which turned out to be premature or in error, prompted rivals in business and academia to question the validity of his claims. In 1980, Julian Simon, an economist at the University of Maryland, challenged Dr. Ehrlich and two of his colleagues with what Stewart Brand, a founder of the Whole Earth Catalog, called ‘’one of the great revelatory bets.’‘ Convinced that the growing population would make natural resources ever more scarce and thus drive up costs, Dr. Ehrlich accepted Mr. Simon’s challenge, betting that the prices of five key metals would rise in the 1980s. Mr. Simon believed that innovation would drive prices down. In 1990, Dr. Ehrlich and his colleagues conceded defeat and sent Mr. Simon a check for $576.07 -- an amount that represented the decline in the metals’ prices after accounting for inflation. WSJ, editorial, 17 Mar 2026: Paul Ehrlich, the Man Who Lost an Infamous Bet The Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich, who died Friday at age 93, made his most important contribution to the world by losing a bet. It helped educate millions that his ideas about scarcity and human ingenuity were wrong. Readers of a certain age will recall that Ehrlich was one of the most celebrated public intellectuals of his time. His 1968 book, “The Population Bomb,” made him famous in an era of economic and political turmoil that led to public pessimism. The book’s opening lines capture his zero-sum Malthusian thinking: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.” The idea that people having babies was impoverishing nations became an article of faith on the political left and most of the press. Untold horrors were committed by governments against their own citizens in the name of population control—most notably, China’s one-child policy. The great economist Julian Simon decided to put Ehrlich’s theories to the test. In 1980 he offered to bet on whether the price of five commodities would go down or up over the next 10 years. Ehrlich chose the five metals—chromium, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten—and took the bet. It was really a wager over human beings and free markets. If Ehrlich was right, and people were devouring the Earth’s resources, then the price of those resources would go up. If Simon was right, human beings would respond to shortages with ingenuity, and prices would, in the long term, go down. In 1990 Simon won the bet and Ehrlich paid up. First Things, Scott Yenor, 19 Mar 2026: Paul Ehrlich, False Prophet Paul Ehrlich, noted author of The Population Bomb, died last week. Few people have been so consequentially wrong as Ehrlich. Ironically, his name, translated from the German, means “honest, truthful, sincere.” It is remarkable how this PhD in butterflies and Stanford professor rose to such prominence, capitalizing on a wave of popular pessimism to attack civilization from the left. Ehrlich’s Population Bomb begins with an arresting line: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate . . .” Indeed, in the late 1960s, American society seemed to be coming apart. The threat of nuclear war loomed. Mass migration wore away borders. Disease spread. Ehrlich’s Population Bomb more caught the wave of alarmism than created it. The Rockefeller and Ford Foundations were already promoting population control across the world, especially in India and East Asia, in the early 1960s. Many ears heard Ehrlich’s prophecies. He appeared more than twenty times on Johnny Carson’s Tonight Show. During his 1980 appearance, Ehrlich praised Eastern European countries for reaching Zero Population Growth. Imitators arose too, most notably the Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth, a book published in 1972. Limits, a cultural marker of sorts, saw several MIT professors use computer models to prove that coming population explosion would lead to resource depletion and declines in agricultural and industrial output. The only bright spot would be the rebirth of humanity after its impending collapse. …. Skeptics always dogged Ehrlich. Most famous was his bet with Julian Simon, the free-market economist and techno-enthusiast. I read Simon’s The Ultimate Resource as a young man. Like others at the time, he was more worried about the world’s impending labor shortage. Fewer laborers would mean less creativity. With more people, Simon thought, human ingenuity would flourish. There would be no worries about running out of commodities like copper or tungsten. Simon allowed Ehrlich to pick five commodities that he thought would increase in price during the next decade. Each ended up decreasing in price, consistent with Simon’s prediction. Ehrlich’s predictions cannot be taken seriously today. Life expectancy climbed in most of the world after 1970. Mass famines didn’t materialize. Yet he felt no shame for being so wrong. So maybe “starvation has been less extensive than I (or rather the agriculturalists I consulted) expected,” he said in 2004. But many are still “very hungry.” Wikipedia Entry A lecture that Ehrlich gave on the topic of overpopulation at the Commonwealth Club of California was broadcast by radio in April 1967.[22] The success of the lecture caused further publicity, and the suggestion from David Brower the executive director of the environmentalist Sierra Club, and Ian Ballantine of Ballantine Books to write a book concerning the topic. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne H. Ehrlich, collaborated on the book, The Population Bomb, but the publisher insisted that a single author be credited; only Paul’s name appears as an author.[23] Although Ehrlich was not the first to warn about population issues — concern had been widespread during the 1950s and 1960s — his charismatic and media-savvy methods helped publicize the topic.[13] The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson had Ehrlich on as a guest more than twenty times, with one interview lasting an hour.[24][25] On Expertise May 2017: Friday Trumpery: The Murder-Suicide of Expertise THE SUICIDE OF EXPERTISE But here are the hallmarks of why “experts” are not being trusted: * The experts are not all that expert (well-credentialed, but deeply ignorant) * The experts lack intellectual humility – they hold onto wrong claims far past reasonability as a result, and make overconfident pronouncements * The experts are i

    38 min
  4. Mar 7

    Using Your Talents: Don't Be Mrs. Jellyby, Be Esther Summerson or Tom Pinch

    I used someone else’s podcast on “resounding gongs or clashing cymbals” as a jumping-off point of where one should be focusing one’s efforts in the world… with a shift into some Lenten themes. Yes, there’s a heavy Christian flavor to this one, but it’s also a sneaky way for me to encourage you to consume Dickens in the form of excellent miniseries production (yes, really). And a finish up with saying if we must have Daylight Saving Time, why not use that “extra” hour of daylight in the evening to build community? Nudge nudge. Episode Links Pillar Podcast Bonus episode for paying subscribers: Resounding gongs or clashing cymbals Mrs. Jellyby Quoting from the 2025 post: Mrs. Jellyby is one of a network of charitable do-gooders, under the heading of Christian missionary work bother one of the main characters, Mr. Jarndyce. She and the others were a thinly veiled critique of various members of the charitable societies who had bothered Dickens once he was rich and famous. Mrs. Jellyby focused on an African tribe, and her mission is described thusly, from Chapter 4, “Telescopic Philanthropy”: We were to pass the night, Mr. Kenge told us when we arrived in his room, at Mrs. Jellyby’s; and then he turned to me and said he took it for granted I knew who Mrs. Jellyby was. “I really don’t, sir,” I returned. “Perhaps Mr. Carstone—or Miss Clare—” But no, they knew nothing whatever about Mrs. Jellyby. “In-deed! Mrs. Jellyby,” said Mr. Kenge, standing with his back to the fire and casting his eyes over the dusty hearth-rug as if it were Mrs. Jellyby’s biography, “is a lady of very remarkable strength of character who devotes herself entirely to the public. She has devoted herself to an extensive variety of public subjects at various times and is at present (until something else attracts her) devoted to the subject of Africa, with a view to the general cultivation of the coffee berry—AND the natives—and the happy settlement, on the banks of the African rivers, of our superabundant home population. Mr. Jarndyce, who is desirous to aid any work that is considered likely to be a good work and who is much sought after by philanthropists, has, I believe, a very high opinion of Mrs. Jellyby.” Note, the concept was they would take some of the “superabundant home population” — aka that “excess population” Scrooge notes in “A Christmas Carol” — ship them over to Africa, and then have those poor people work in African missions. …. That is, she wants to ship off 50 — 200 poor families from England to Africa, supposedly to make their living by growing coffee (and Mrs. Jellyby herself consumes a great deal of coffee to power her letter-writing campaigns). They are also supposed to evangelize the people already living there to Christianity. Other “charitable” people appear, whether they are involved in the Africa scheme or not. Similarly, they abuse the responsibilities they have to their families and neighbors to supposedly do good to a larger sphere. In general, they engender resentment in their children and sometimes despair in their spouses (though, in some cases, the spouses are on board and completely smug about it all.) …. The African king wanted to sell all the missionaries (all who survived the tropical diseases) into slavery for his personal benefit. After Mrs. Jellyby sighs, she moves on to women’s suffrage as her next cause, which wouldn’t be successful in the UK until well after her death. In the meantime, she has a disabled granddaughter she could have done much to help… but no, she has decided that it’s better to keep on writing letters. …. But that is not nearly as grand as the “telescopic philanthropy” that is completely futile, as Mrs. Jellyby does not understand anything whatsoever about the people in Africa, what they want or need. Mrs. Jellyby could have been more effective by helping both her family and the poor who surrounded her in London, where she lived. What Esther Summerson was able to accomplish among different people directly contrasts with the futility of Mrs. Jellyby’s pile of messy letters. If Mrs. Jellyby had ordered her responsibilities properly, by her capabilities and knowledge, she could have done so much more good. Dickens Adaptations Bleak House 2005 miniseries, Gillian Anderson as Lady Dedlock, Charles Dance as Mr. Tulkinghorn IMDB listing: Bleak House Amazon listing: Bleak House Martin Chuzzlewit 1994 miniseries, Tom Wilkinson as Pecksniff, Pete Postlethwaite as Tigg Montague/Montague Tigg, Paul Scofield as old Martin IMDB listing: Martin Chuzzlewit Amazon listing: Martin Chuzzlewit USCCB: Works of Mercy Corporal Works of Mercy * Feed the hungry * Give drink to the thirsty * Shelter the homeless * Visit the sick * Visit prisoners and ransom the hostage * Bury the dead * Give alms to the poor Spiritual Works of Mercy * Instructing the ignorant * Counseling the doubtful * Admonishing the sinner * Comforting the sorrowful * Forgiving injuries * Bearing wrongs patiently * Praying for the living and the dead DST Post STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

    36 min
  5. Feb 27

    Demographics vs. Public Finance

    Two different pieces — one from the left, one from the right — showing that wishful thinking will not get the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States through the public finance difficulties brought about by demographic realities. No, I’m not talking about immigration (legal or illegal… which also won’t fix the problem.) By all means, tinker around the edges for now. Because hard choices are coming, whether people like it or not. Episode Links NY Times op-ed, 23 Feb 2026, Nicholas Bagley and Robert Gordon: Mamdani Will Need to Change How He Governs Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York, in his inaugural address, offered a pledge to create a government “where excellence is no longer the exception.” He now must do so while closing a $5.4 billion deficit, in a state where the governor rejects higher taxes on the rich. Big budget gaps are not uncommon in American cities. Nor is New York’s high cost of living — one reason that California, New York and Illinois top the list of states with declining populations over the past five years. If blue-state governors and mayors want to get serious about delivering excellent public services, they will need to do more than battle billionaire elites or embrace abundant housing and energy. They will have to push back against a core constituency within the Democratic Party that often makes government deliver less and cost more: unions representing teachers, police officers and transit workers. Bloomberg, Matt Levine, Money Matters, 26 Feb 2026: The DOGE Doubt Trade This product exists. It is conventionally called a “bar bet.” You can walk into a bar in the right part of Texas, say “I’ll bet anyone $1,000 that Elon Musk won’t do the thing he said he’d do on the timeline he promised,” and someone will stand up and say “them’s fightin’ words” and take your bet. And you will negotiate the terms and odds and resolution method, and in six months you’ll check back in and he won’t have done the thing and you’ll make $1,000. And you will get to say to the Musk fan on the other side of the bet, “nyah nyah nyah nyah nyah,” which is what you really wanted. Of course there is a market structure problem, which is that you have to find the right bar and then laboriously negotiate the terms of the bet, so you can’t actually pour your life savings into Being Skeptical About Elon Musk’s Promises. Or you couldn’t until recently. But now we have prediction markets, which are centralized electronic exchanges, regulated by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, for coordinating bar bets. Here’s a Wall Street Journal story about a guy who can justifiably say “nyah nyah nyah nyah nyah”: Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. … Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.” But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government. Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big. … From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce—which he did—he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending. ... The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does. He made like $128,000, or 37%. Notice the features of this product: * If you have a view like “federal spending will go up,” it is immediately obvious whether and to what extent the market incorporates that view: The market price just is the market’s expected probability of that happening. * This product reflects only one fact, whether federal spending goes up or not. * Investor psychology will affect the price at which you get into the trade — if Musk’s “eager fans” think he will cut federal spending, then you will pay a relatively low price for the spending-will-go-up contract — but not the price at which you exit, because the trade resolves: Eventually, spending either goes up or it doesn’t, there’s some resolution mechanism to establish the fact, and if it went up you get paid. Tom Gara wrote on Threads: “He knew that it’s basically mathematically impossible to reduce federal spending, but he also knew Elon fanboys are often morons.” With Tesla stock, that is a problem; with prediction markets, it’s an opportunity. It is the opposite of a stock investment. I guess the point I would make here is that this is still somewhat childish. The stock market exists to allocate capital to productive businesses, and those businesses are irreducibly messy. You do not decide how to allocate capital by understanding one isolated fact about a company’s business; you have to figure out which facts are important and then do your best to understand all of them. Financial markets are not bets on individual facts; they are bets on the economic consequences of those facts. Prediction markets are a “truth machine”; they let you isolate a fact and make money by being right about it. In many ways this makes them less useful: They don’t fund economic growth, and they are imperfect hedges to real economic risks. But sometimes they do give you the satisfaction of being right. WSJ, 25 Feb 2026: The Tax Nerd Who Bet His Life Savings Against DOGE WASHINGTON -- Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. He insists he’s not really a betting man. Cole is a 37-year-old tax economist with Ivy League degrees, a mortgage and a young child. Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.” But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government. Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big. …. From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce -- which he did -- he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending. “It’s almost like the government has, you know, 19 elderly employees for every actual employee,” Cole said. The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does. This was far different, he decided, than other prediction-market options. Some of those are equivalent to betting in the already efficient sports-gambling market. Others are susceptible to competition against people with insider knowledge, like gambles on whether Lady Gaga will appear during the Super Bowl halftime show. Cole gradually amassed more than 3% of one particular $12 million federal-spending prediction market. He spread risk across several sub-bets, structured so he landed in the red only if spending declined by more than $50 billion. He wasn’t betting against Kalshi itself, just against people betting on Musk. …. The government published the final 2025 figures Feb. 20. It wasn’t even close. The lowest spending quarter in 2025 was $66 billion above the bet’s target level. Cole collected $470,300, for a profit of more than $128,000, or 37%. “There’s a little bit of that feeling of vindication,” Cole said. Our World in Data: Births v Deaths Our World in Data, 5 Jan 2023: How many people die and how many are born each year? The world population has grown rapidly, particularly over the past century: in 1900, there were fewer than 2 billion people on the planet, and in 2025, there were around 8.2 billion. Two metrics determine the change in the world population: the number of babies born and the number of people dying. …. As the number of deaths approaches the number of births, global population growth will end How do we expect this to change in the coming decades? What does this mean for population growth? Population projections suggest annual births will remain around 135 million in the next two decades before declining slowly in the second half of the century. As the world population ages, the annual number of deaths is expected to continue increasing in the coming decades until it reaches a similar number as annual births, at which point the world population will stop increasing. The annual number of deaths is then expected to surpass the annual number of births. This is when the world population will start decreasing. United States Japan France South Korea United Kingdom China Related Posts STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.sub

    39 min
  6. Feb 18

    The Return of Wealth Taxes: California and The Netherlands

    Getting back into podcasting by looking at the recent wealth tax proposals in California and the Netherlands. The Box 3 “reforms” have already passed in The Netherlands and to go into effect in 2028, and in California, the wealth tax is likely to be a ballot proposal to be put in front of voters this fall in 2026, but backdated to January 2026. I look at the proposals at a high-level, some initial responses, and what the actual goals of these taxes are. Episode Notes Netherlands Investment Tax: “Box 3” NL Times, 13 Feb 2026: Dutch parliament greenlights new Box 3 tax, set to take effect in 2028 Despite considerable resistance, a large majority in the lower house of the Dutch parliament approved a new system for taxing the returns on assets, also known as the Box 3 tax. The new system, which taxes returns based on the actual increase in the value of assets, is set to take effect in 2028. The Dutch government had to change the Box 3 tax after multiple courts ruled that the current system is unlawful. The current system taxes assets based on fictive gains - how much the Tax Authority assumes assets have increased in value over the taxable period, based on past returns. The Tax Authority also calculated the tax based on an assumed distribution of assets across savings and other investments, called the “asset mix.” …. The Tweede Kamer greenlighting the Box 3 reform is not the end of the issue. A majority asked the new Cabinet to, once the new system is implemented, change the way in which returns on things like stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies are taxed. The new system taxes the unrealized gains on these assets - the profits of investments that have increased in value, but haven’t been cashed out yet. Parliamentarians don’t like that this will result in people paying tax on money they don’t have yet. A majority, therefore, asked the government to come up with a way in which investors only pay tax on realized returns - money in their pocket once they sell the asset involved. They want the government to present that plan by Budget Day 2028 at the latest. The Box 3 reform is costing the government billions. Not only does it have to refund overpaid capital gains taxes, but affected taxpayers may also be entitled to interest on those repayments. The Ministry of Finance has not yet formally decided whether the interest—known as belastingrente in Dutch—will be paid. NTL Trust International, accessed 17 Feb 2026: Netherlands Box 3 Reform: Structural Shifts and the 36% Tax Liquidation Contagion Balaji Initial Post 15 Feb 2026, X/Twitter: Text: LIQUIDATION CONTAGIONWealth taxes are even worse than you think. Any asset held by Californian billionaires or Dutch citizens is now at risk of experiencing forced liquidation pressure.So: it’s not just that you don’t want to hold assets as a Dutchman. You also don’t want a Dutchman to hold your assets. Because the logic of forced liquidation is contagion.Let’s think it through.(1) First, suppose there is an asset with a total market cap of $10,000, with 10 shares total, of which 1 share each is held by 10 different holders, all in the Netherlands. To simplify the math, assume the Dutch holders bought those shares at par, or close to $0.(2) Now suppose today is the unrealized cap gains tax day, and the share price is $1,000 per share. Each Dutch guy is hit with a 36% tax, and owes $360. The first guy sells his one share, gets $1,000, and pays $360 in tax while retaining $640.(3) But the first guy’s sale reduces the market price to $960 per share. So when the second guy sells, he only retains $600 after paying $360 in tax.(4) Now assume that by the 7th guy, all the selling has pushed the share price to collapse to $200 per share. This is a very reasonable scenario if 60% of the cap table has suddenly been dumped. Indeed it might go much lower.(5) At $200 per share, the 7th guy actually has to go into debt to pay the tax as he owes $360. He sells his one share, pays all $200 of the proceeds in tax. And still owes $160 more in tax.(6) The 8th, 9th, and 10th guys are even more screwed. By the time they sell, the price will likely have crashed to $100 per share or less. As with the 7th guy, even 100% liquidation will not cover their tax burden.(7) So we immediately see many negative things about the Dutch unrealized cap gains tax bill.(a) First, it will cause large simultaneous forced liquidations. Everyone must sell 36% of their stake near the same time.(b) Second, it may be literally impossible to pay if a critical mass of the cap table is all subject to it at the same time. In the example above it was 100% Dutch holders, but has it been just 60% the result would have been much the same: a collapse in the share price.(c) Third, that means it would be disastrous to have too many Dutch citizens (or Californian billionaires!) on the cap table. Their forced sales will crash your share price.(d) So, you might have to start mass blocking those resident in wealth-taxing jurisdictions from investing in your companies.(e) This in turn makes the poor Western European guy even poorer, as he gets locked out of high growth assets.To be clear: I really do feel bad for the formerly Flying Dutchmen, now Crying Dutchmen. They invented much of modern capitalism. They founded New Amsterdam, now New York. They’ve punched way above their weight. I wish them only the best.Nevertheless…they should prepare for the worst. This may be a tough century for Western Europe. The first ones out might get to freedom, while the slowest may be stuck behind a new Iron Curtain, spending a century paying off the debts their states incurred over the last century.Because the long run fruits of Western Keynesianism are the same as Soviet Communism, in the sense of wealth seizure and pauperization.I mean, if you knew the future, you wouldn’t want to co-own a farm with a Russian in 1916. For similar reasons, you might not want to co-own a share of stock with Dutch national in 2026. Or with anyone in a seizure-curious jurisdiction…which unfortunately includes much of Western Europe, Canada, and Blue America.You instead want assets that are not held by those subject to forced liquidations. Now, I grant that this is an unusual way to rank assets…Dutch holders considered harmful?!? Yet it might sadly be necessary to minimize your exposure to liquidation contagion.PS: guess which crucial stock is most held by the Dutch? ASML. So: this unrealized cap gains tax may not literally be a communist plot, but it would have the same effect. In the replies: Doesn’t tell you, of course, how one has to keep track of the investments one holds via ETFs/mutual funds via companies such as BlackRock. BlackRock, etc., “owns” these assets on behalf of OTHER people. “But it’s for a pension fund!” Which, again, is for OTHER people… but I assume pension funds are out of scope for this tax….. [maybe I shouldn’t assume… all governments are hungry for tax revenue] Cross-contamination of systems 15 Feb 2026, Reddit: Box 3 in 2028: taxed on unrealized gains in NL and realized gains by US | how do people deal with this? Not copying the text — but keeping on with the having to liquidate assets theme to pay a wealth tax on UNREALIZED gains, but when liquidating, one REALIZES the gains…. which triggers REALIZED GAINS TAXES in other tax jurisdictions. WHUPS California Wealth Tax NYPost, 8 Jan 2026: Wealth tax threat prompts at least six billionaires to cut ties with California, as about 20 more mull exit: report The threat of a steep new wealth tax in California has reportedly prompted at least six billionaires including Larry Page and Peter Thiel to cut their ties with the state — and as many as 20 others could be heading for the exits. The half-dozen billionaires made their moves before New Year’s Day — the cutoff date to avoid a potential one-time tax of 5% on fortunes exceeding $1 billion — which California residents will vote on in November, according to Bloomberg News. David Lesperance, a tax adviser who specializes in relocating ultra-wealthy clients out of high-tax jurisdictions, told the outlet he personally helped four billionaires end their California residency before the proposal’s Jan. 1 cutoff date. Related Posts * March 2022: Podcast — Income taxes and wealth taxes * June 2023: Taxing Tuesday: Wealth Taxes in Norway and SALT Cap Review * September 2024: Taxing Tuesday: Taxes on the Ballot, Revenue Challenges, and the French Wealth Tax Impact * August 2020: Taxing Tuesday: California Nuts and New York... Whatever We’ve Got - the prior attempt in California… which failed * August 2024: Taxing Tuesday: Demonstration on Stupidity of Unrealized Gains Taxes, Illinois Property Taxes, and More * Nov 2023: Taxing Tuesday: Bezos Moves Back to Florida, Thwarting Washington State’s New Capital Gains Tax, Migration Stats Distorted by Pandemic Issues * Oct 2023: Taxing Tuesday: Gaming, Chicago Mansions go Downscale, and D*****s Tax Research STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

    35 min
  7. 11/16/2025

    Movember 2025: Continuing On

    Just some talk on why I fundraise for Movember, which I’ve been doing since 2017. I look at some of the programs funded by Movember. The need continues. Episode Links Here are the places you can donate to the Movember Foundation, which supports men’s health, specifically focusing on prostate cancer, testicular cancer, and men’s mental health: * Mary Pat Campbell’s MoSpace – a place to donate at Movember itself * My Movember Facebook fundraiser – my officially linked fundraiser, if this works better for you And here’s a QR code if that works better for you: While prostate cancer was my initial impetus for supporting Movember, I support all of Movember’s causes, which include men’s mental health and suicide prevention. Some Movember-funded projects Ironman Registry - USA IRONMAN is an international, population-based registry of 5,000 men with advanced prostate cancer across ten countries. It seeks to understand clinical outcomes associated with management of advanced prostate cancer and understand the biological and clinical diversity of the disease. USA - Mass market, multi-platform public media documentary series & campaign This project uses a mass market, multi dimensional campaigns to shift populations understanding, attitudes and intentions and ultimately improve health outcomes on a large scale. Focusing on Youth Mental Health we will be working in partnership with PBS to deliver a documentary series supported with educational, digital and in person elements delivered across the USA. Veterans and First Responders - United States To improve the mental health/wellbeing and prevent suicide of first responders and veterans in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, United Kingdom, United States and New Zealand. This will be achieved through funding research proposals aimed at building the case to develop and implement effective prevention programs and/or test new evidence-based programs. STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

    25 min
  8. 09/26/2025

    Chicago Pensions: The $11 Billion Sweetener, POBs, and the Road to Insolvency

    Following news of a liquidity problem in the Chicago Firefighters’ Pension Fund and a stunning $11 billion pension benefit boost for police and fire, I, your friendly actuary, Mary Pat Campbell, dive into the reactions from various groups as well as the “timely” release of a report from a task force convened by Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. I explore the political negligence surrounding the Tier 2 sweetener bill and the task force’s proposed “solutions”—a mix of new taxes, fees, and the risky use of Pension Obligation Bonds (POBs)— and contrast with the argument that Chicago’s core problem is a runaway 62% spending surge since 2019. Then there’s the absurd defense of the benefit increase from State Senator Robert Martwick, who claimed it was a service to the city. Finally, there’s the question: where are pensions for Chicago (and Illinois) ultimately going, given their history of underfunding? Now, with their benefit boost? Will they go cap in hand to the federal government for a bailout (again), and should their poorly funded, non-Social Security systems be allowed to continue? The Chicago pension crisis isn’t just local news—it’s a bellwether for the rest of the nation. Episode Links STUMP related links * 19 Sep 2025: Chicago Pension Squeeze: Fire Pensions Get a Loan as Tax Revenue Delayed; Pritzker Warned Against Signing Sweetener Bill, Signed Anyway * 4 Aug 2025 Podcast: Chicago Pension Artificial Sweeteners * 25 July 2025 More on Chicago Pension Finance: Those Pension Sweeteners Sure are Sour * 18 July 2025 Chicago Finances Update: Other People’s Money Doesn’t Go Too Far, Does It? * 19 Apr 2020 Illinois Asks for $10B(+) for Pensions -- Most Disgusting COVID-19 Bailout Yet? * 20 Jun 2022 Podcast: Pension Obligation Bonds * 16 Feb 2015 Why are Pension Obligation Bonds OF THE DEVIL? A Lesson from the Dollar Auction This is why I say POBs are of the devil — whether or not you believe in a literal devil, the literary devil is the kind that helps you rationalize the bad behavior you already did and are determined on continuing. Ask Faust about how that worked out for him. Austin Berg and The Last Ward State lawmakers passed—and Gov. JB Pritzker signed—one of the most irresponsible bills in modern Illinois history this year: a suite of pension sweeteners for Chicago police and fire. The sweeteners added $11 billion in new benefits to the city’s police and fire pension systems, which were already the worst-funded in the nation, with no new revenue to pay for them. In the waning days of session, sources said several leaders attempted to contact Johnson to request that he tell the governor’s team to step in and kill the bill. But the mayor was missing in action. A newly unearthed memo published this week by Paris Schutz at Fox32 confirmed Johnson’s negligence. Specifically, Chicago CFO Jill Jaworski wrote to the governor’s team that the bill would make Chicago’s police and fire pension funds “technically insolvent.” …. Bloomberg broke news last week that the city was forced to provide emergency lending for Chicago’s firefighter pension fund in order to avoid asset sales. Between a delay in Cook County property tax bills4 and alarmingly low funding levels, the fund literally did not have the necessary cash on hand to pay current retirees. This is what insolvency looks like.5 And this is exactly why Jaworski and Johnson should have been screaming from the rooftops to oppose the pension sweetener bill. Bond Buyer on Chicago Task Force 18 Sep 2025: Taxes and cuts advised in Chicago finance task force report Chicago should resume annual inflation-based adjustments to its property tax levy. That’s one recommendation from a task force Mayor Brandon Johnson assembled and charged with coming up with ways to strengthen Chicago’s long-term financial health. It doesn’t call for other major property tax hikes, but the report, prepared on Aug. 31 and released this week, also raises the possibility of re-amortizing and reducing pension debt, including through the issuance of pension obligation bonds. …. The task force’s interim report puts forth a mix of efficiencies and revenue solutions in the $1 billion to $2.1 billion range to close the city’s $1.15 billion budget gap. The group identified between $630 million and $1.65 billion in potential revenue-related opportunities, and between $372.4 million and $455.5 million in efficiencies. As part of the efficiencies, the task force recommended extending the supplemental pension payments policy beyond 2028; re-amortizing and reducing pension debt through pension obligation bonds and pension buyouts; and shifting the timing of pension contributions. Illinois Policy 22 Sep 2025: Chicago budget rises over 2X faster than other big cities Not enough revenue? How about too much spending. Chicago outpaces many of America’s biggest cities with a 62% spending spike since 2019. That’s what’s driving deficits. Chicago faces a $1.15 billion projected deficit in 2026, and the city’s budget task force’s answer is $1.6 billion in new tax hikes. But the numbers show the city’s true budget problem isn’t a “revenue challenge,” as Mayor Brandon Johnson and his task force claim. It’s overspending. 24 Sep 2025: Uber surcharge, property taxes, liquor prices: Chicago’s push for new taxes New taxes on Uber, automatic property tax hikes and higher liquor taxes are all being pushed as Chicago leaders seek to spend $1 billion more than they will have. Chicago is short by $1 billion what it wants to spend in its upcoming budget, so a city task force recommended new or higher taxes and fees on rideshares, property taxes, liquor and more. …. Mayor Brandon Johnson has claimed the city has a revenue problem, but city spending has grown at twice the rate of other large cities. These proposals amount to the same old playbook: rather than streamlining government, leaders are again reaching deeper into taxpayers’ pockets. Chicago’s structural deficit is driven by rising pension and personnel costs that have grown faster than revenues for a decade, as well as from using temporary funds to create permanent costs. No matter how much taxpayers give up, Chicago leaders will certainly find a way to spend more. Twitter/X threads on Martwick’s “Reasons” (click on pictures to go to X — there are embedded videos you can play and see what Martwick said.) A thread (off Stu Loren’s post): STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe

    45 min

About

Meep (Mary Pat Campbell) talks about mortality trends and/or public finance issues, usually with a connection to current events. marypatcampbell.substack.com