Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 5d ago

    Celebrating #200 With Art Hogan (FvF Ep. 200)

    Celebrating 200 episodes, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take Facts vs Feelings on the road to Boston for a live show, joined by special guest Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth. Art opens by explaining his opinion on why the market keeps climbing despite bubble fears and Fed uncertainty: Second-quarter earnings growth came in far above expectations, broadening out across all 11 S&P 500 sectors rather than staying concentrated in mega-cap tech. That broadening, he argues, is why the equal-weight S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are outpacing the market-cap-weighted index this year. The conversation moves to the Fed, where new Chair Kevin Warsh's terser, less transparent communication style rattled markets around his last two meetings. Sonu and Art debate whether AI should be viewed as an inflationary force, adding "workers" to the economy rather than acting as the historically disinflationary technology wave investors expect. They also dig into hyperscaler CapEx, rising CDS spreads on tech debt, and why Art thinks the field of dominant AI players will eventually narrow. Art also makes the case against comparing today's AI buildout to the dot-com bubble, citing real business models versus the 2,600 companies that went public between 1995 and 2000. Carson's Barry Gilbert, VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, joins to discuss how to actually invest in AI through a barbell approach, and the episode wraps with reflections on 200 episodes, gratitude for the team behind the podcast, and a toast with Art. Key Takeaways Q2 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth beat expectations dramatically, with estimates that started around 13% rising above 23%, driving multiple compression from 23x to 19x forward earnings even as prices rose.For the first time in five quarters, all 11 S&P 500 sectors are showing significant earnings growth, with eight of 11 posting profit margin growth, explaining why the equal-weight index and Russell 2000 are outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's less transparent communication style, including terse statements and non-committal press conferences, has unsettled markets around his last two meetings despite no actual policy surprises.NVIDIA is trading at a valuation multiple lower than the broader market despite 65-70% margins, reflecting investor uncertainty about whether AI mega-cap spending is near a cyclical peak.Small caps have returned roughly 21-22% year-to-date, with leadership shifting from unprofitable, speculative names early in the year to more profitable small caps as the market broadens out.Credit default swap spreads on hyperscaler debt are rising as investors reassess these companies from "capital-light, free-cash-flow-positive" to "capital-heavy, free-cash-flow-negative," with the market pricing in that only a handful of AI players will ultimately survive. Jump to: 0:00 — Live From Boston for 200 2:43 — Art Hogan Joins the Bar Talk 3:06 — Earnings Growth Explains the Rally 6:10 — Market Breadth and Nvidia Valuations 9:02 — Pencils Down Origins and Rituals 10:08 — Fed Communication and Inflation Anxiety 13:40 — AI Spending Versus Productivity Payoff 16:57 — Small Caps Benefit from Broadening 19:50 — Hyperscalers Debt and Credit Skepticism 23:41 — Timeless Advisor Advice Plus Bubble Myths 27:31 — Why Profit Margins Keep Rising 30:20 — How to Invest in AI Diversified 35:52 — Contrarian Ideas International and Software 39:39 — Gratitude Growth and a Carson Invite 43:15 — Final Toast with Art Hogan Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  2. Aug 5

    One Trillion Dollars (FvF Ep. 199)

    In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, open with a cautionary tale from the AI-focused hedge fund Situation Awareness, whose founder went from up over 400% year-to-date to a 67% collapse in July, a stark reminder that concentration, leverage, and liquidity can undo even the best fundamental research. At the Fed's latest meeting, Chair Walsh's refusal to offer guidance sent long-term yields soaring instead of calming markets, with the 30-year hitting its highest level since 2007. Sonu explains why nominal GDP growth running near 6-8% (even as real growth stays soft) points to a genuinely inflationary growth environment, and why the bond market, not stocks, may be the real test of the new Fed chair's credibility.  Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Oracle are now projected to spend over a trillion dollars in 2027 alone, close to 3% of GDP, with Microsoft and Amazon rewarded for showing results while Meta and Oracle get punished for spending without proof of ROI. They close with a look at GDP internals showing AI investment now accounts for over 40% of real GDP growth, banks breaking out to new highs as a bullish signal, a weakening dollar, and seasonal risks heading into August and September. [Key Takeaways] Situation Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund, went from up over 400% year-to-date to down 67% in July after a concentrated, leveraged bet unwound, forcing a distressed sale of stock holdings to Citadel.Fed Chair Walsh's press conference offered little forward guidance, and long-term yields spiked in response, with the 30-year Treasury hitting its highest level since 2007 and 30-year mortgage rates climbing from 5.9% to 6.7% over the last five Fed meetings despite no rate changes.Nominal GDP growth has averaged 5.8% over the last six quarters (7.9% in Q2 alone), well above the 2010-2019 trend of 4%, supporting the view that this is an inflationary growth environment even as real GDP growth lags at 1.9%.The five largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) are now projected to spend over $1 trillion in CapEx in 2027 alone, up from earlier 2026 outlook estimates of $600 billion, with markets rewarding companies showing revenue results (Microsoft, Amazon) and punishing those that aren't (Meta, Oracle).AI-related hardware and software investment accounted for roughly 42% of real GDP growth over the last six quarters and now represents about 5% of GDP, surpassing the peak proportion seen during the dot-com boom.Bank stocks (KBE) are breaking out to new highs after a base dating back to 2007, a signal Ryan argues is historically a positive one for the broader bull market, even as seasonally weak August and September approach in a midterm year. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Banter 1:25 - Live Boston Show Announcement 3:24 - AI Hedge Fund Blowup Lessons 9:39 - Fed Meeting And Market Whiplash 16:47 - Nominal Growth And Sticky Inflation 28:37 - Hyperscalers March Toward One Trillion 32:34 - Earnings Reactions From Big Tech 43:45 - GDP Under The Hood And AI Share 48:56 - Markets Sideways Seasonality And Banks 53:33 - Dollar Drop International Angle And Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  3. Jul 29

    Welcome to the Chip Crash (FvF Ep. 198)

    In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into Apple reclaiming its title as the world's largest company by market cap after sitting out the AI spending race, while hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft pour ever-larger sums into CapEx. They break down record Q2 blended earnings growth of 38% year-over-year, the outsized role investment gains in private holdings like SpaceX and Anthropic played in Google's headline profit beat, and why core net income tells a different story.  The conversation shifts to the "chip crash" playing out in South Korea, where the KOSPI has fallen more than 30% from its June 22 peak amid margin calls and central bank rate hikes, and what that says about crowded momentum trades and the explosion of leveraged ETF products tied to tech and semis. Ryan and Sonu also cover the rotation into low volatility, financials, and healthcare, why flows into tech remain historically stretched even after the pullback, and preview this week's Fed decision amid unusually high rate-hike odds. They close with a personal update on Ryan's eye surgery, a shoutout to guest and TrendLabs Founder JC Parets' record-breaking episode, and details on the live 200th episode show in Boston. [Key Takeaways] Apple overtook NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap (~$4.9 trillion) after largely sitting out heavy AI CapEx spending, while free cash flow for semiconductor companies surpassed hyperscaler free cash flow for the first time this quarter.Q2 blended S&P 500 earnings growth hit 38% year-over-year, the best pace since Q3 2021, driven largely by tech (+65%), energy (+128%), and communication services (+112%); excluding Google, growth drops to 26%.A large share of Google's reported profit surge came from investment gains in private holdings (SpaceX, Anthropic) rather than core operations, a pattern also inflating net income at Amazon, NVIDIA, and Microsoft.South Korea's KOSPI fell roughly 33% from its June 22nd peak (before a further 10% one-day drop) as margin calls and a Bank of Korea rate hike hit heavily levered chip and momentum trades.Momentum's one-year excess return over the S&P 500 pulled back from the 96th to the 75th percentile relative to the last 40 years, while low volatility stocks are up 8% and financials up 11% since the market's June 2nd peak.Fed rate-hike odds this week sit near their highest pre-meeting level in recent memory, with the committee reportedly divided as inflation, a resilient labor market, and AI/Middle East-driven cost pressures complicate the outlook. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Setup 0:31 - Apple Reclaims Top Market Cap 5:16 - AI Capex Arms Race Reality Check 8:35 - Record Margins And Earnings Surge 16:44 - South Korea Sparks Chip Crash 23:49 - Ryan’s Eye Patch Surgery Story 29:58 - Why Tech Flows Look Crowded 35:28 - Leveraged Products And Margin Call Risk 42:40 - Rotation Into Low Vol And Defensives 46:57 - Contrarian Thinking Versus Momentum 54:41 - Interstellar Detour And Time Talk 57:19 - Fed Uncertainty And Rate Hike Odds 1:02:16 - Live Boston Show And Final Thanks Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  4. Jul 22

    JC Parets Returns (FvF Ep. 197)

    In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese welcome back JC Parets, founder of Trend Labs (formerly of All Star Charts), for a wide ranging conversation on market breadth, momentum, and where the "dumb money" is currently making its biggest mistakes. JC walks through his deductive approach to markets, using breadth data like the NYSE advance decline line and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average to systematically rule out a bear market thesis, the same way a sommelier deduces a wine varietal. The conversation covers the dollar's surprising resilience as a headwind, the extreme dispersion between software and semiconductor stocks, why crypto and tokenized equities represent "the future of finance" rather than nothing of value, and why the S&P Bank Index breaking out above its 2007 highs is one of the most underappreciated bullish signals in the market. JC and Sonu also debunk the margin debt to GDP scare narrative, put leveraged ETF flows in perspective, and discuss portfolio construction through uncorrelated strategies rather than benchmark chasing. They close out with career advice on social media, JC's favorite cities to visit, and a debate over India's food scene. [Key Takeaways] The NYSE advance decline line closed at an all time high, and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average is at cycle highs, both inconsistent with bear market conditions, which require broadening weakness across new lows, not just a handful of names.Despite a rallying dollar this year, equities have held up well; a dollar rollover (speculators are currently net long and near extremes) could act as a tailwind for risk assets, emerging markets, and Latin America.Correlation between software stocks and the broader technology index fell to near zero (versus a typical ~70), an extreme unwind that's now driving a "catch up" rotation back into software as some semiconductor strength cools.The S&P Bank Index just broke out above its 2007 Great Financial Crisis highs, alongside breakouts in mid cap financials, small cap financials, and European financials, a broad based signal JC argues is very difficult to reconcile with an imminent recession.Margin debt scares are overstated when framed against GDP; relative to total stock market value, leverage is near multi decade lows, and leveraged ETF products remain a rounding error (about 0.25%) of total market size.Small cap and large cap value are hitting new multi month relative highs versus growth, offering a potential diversifier to a volatile, whipsaw prone momentum factor. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Price As Proof 2:54 - Breadth Signals Still Say Bull 9:01 - Bitcoin Bets And Dollar Tailwinds 10:52 - Tech Dispersion And Software Catch-Up 12:53 - Crypto Rails And Tokenized Stocks 15:58 - Financials Breakout Challenges The Bears 24:59 - Margin Debt Myths And Leverage Reality 30:02 - Momentum Whiplash And Value Diversifiers 34:06 - From All-Star Charts To Trend Labs 39:40 - Uncorrelated Strategies Beat Benchmark Anxiety 42:56 - Technician Mentors And Who To Follow 48:00 - Social Media That Builds Careers 55:18 - Crack Spreads And Energy Signals 58:31 - Gratitude And Final Takeaways Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  5. Jul 15

    Here's Our Midyear Outlook 2026 (FvF Ep. 196)

    In this mid-year outlook episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, revisit their 2026 forecast and explain why they've raised their S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% for the year, while holding bonds steady at 3-5%. They walk through how AI capex has become a macroeconomic story as much as a market one, contributing roughly 90 basis points per quarter to real GDP growth, and why hyperscaler spending plans for 2026 and 2027 keep getting revised sharply higher. The conversation covers the labor market's quiet resilience, why business creation data suggests confidence rather than desperation, an inflation picture that isn't going away despite market expectations for Fed rate hikes, and a sector rotation story where former "value" stocks like Micron have become momentum plays almost overnight. Ryan and Sonu also dig into earnings estimate revisions, midterm-year volatility patterns, diversifiers like gold and managed futures, and swap stories from their World Cup travels before previewing next week's guest. [Key Takeaways] Carson raised its 2026 S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% at the midpoint of the year, with the index already up 11% total return year-to-date; bonds remain forecast at 3-5%.AI-related hardware and software investment (excluding data centers) has contributed about 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters, roughly 90 basis points per quarter.Hyperscaler capex estimates keep climbing: the five largest tech spenders were projected to spend $470 billion in 2026 back in November; that figure is now $740 billion, with 2027 estimates rising from $530 billion to nearly $900 billion.S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen from $308 to $339 a share (up 10%) since the start of the year, with 2027 estimates up 12%, led by technology, energy, and materials.The labor market shows underlying strength despite headline softness, with unemployment at 4.2%, average payroll growth around 110,000 a month, and falling continuing claims.Inflation remains sticky due to incomplete tariff pass-through, reshoring-related cost increases, and rising computer/software prices, a reversal from the deflationary tech trends of the 1990s. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And The Midyear Setup 1:45 - Why We Raised The Stock Target 5:38 - AI Spending Shows Up In GDP 9:44 - The Consumer Looks Better Than Feels 14:20 - Business Creation As A Confidence Signal 17:08 - The Real Leaders Inside “Tech” 18:53 - Earnings Keep Getting Revised Higher 27:03 - The Inflation Problem Isn’t Gone 31:06 - The Fed Pause Versus Hike Pricing 35:00 - Second-Half Equity Playbook And Rotation 42:19 - Volatility, Breadth, And Midterm Patterns 49:06 - Bonds, Oil Headlines, Gold, Diversifiers 52:55 - World Cup Travel Notes And Wrap-Up 57:08 - Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  6. Jul 8

    The Summer Rally Continues (FvF Ep. 195)

    In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble. The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook. [Key Takeaways] The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago.Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP.Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft.AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials.Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average.The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit.Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones 0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally 3:26 - What Really Drove Returns 8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation 16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats 23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management 28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story 32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era 42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership 47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  7. Jul 1

    Stop, Drop, & Rotate (FvF Ep. 194)

    In Episode 194 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the "June swoon" and the powerful market rotation shaking up underlying sector leadership. They analyze insights from Sonu's time at the Economic Club of New York, covering Scott Bessent’s speech on national security industrial policy, Kevin Warsh's influence at the Fed, and the broader message of the global market. The episode also digs into an unprecedented market breadth anomaly, a massive weekly outperformance in healthcare, the state of small caps, and why the current bull market is far from finished. From Apple’s steep hardware price hikes and roaring nominal consumer spending to structural lessons from the 1990s dot-com bubble, the conversation connects the week's biggest headlines to the harder macroeconomic data underneath. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 logged a five-day losing streak, yet advancing stocks outnumbered decliners every single day, a market anomaly unseen in nearly 30 years. Meanwhile, major advanced-decline lines hit all-time highs.While mega-cap tech paused, mid-caps rose 2.9% and small caps grew 3% month-to-date. Concurrently, healthcare staged an extraordinary 8% weekly jump, marking its largest weekly outperformance on record.Market warnings are often early; the S&P 500 doubled over the three years following Alan Greenspan's 1996 "irrational exuberance" speech. Navigating secular waves like AI requires strategic re-diversification, not exiting the equity market early.While inflation-adjusted real consumption sits around 2%, nominal spending rocketed at an 8.6% annualized pace over the last three months. Because corporate revenue is nominal, this massive wave of consumer spending continues to bolster corporate earnings.Driven by AI-related memory chip shortages, Apple announced steep price hikes including 30% for the HomePod mini and 55% for Apple TV. This demonstrates how one company's supply chain inflation becomes another tech supplier's margin expansion.Massive fiscal deficits at 6% to 7% of GDP mirror the late 1960s, continuing to inject liquidity and minimize near-term recession risks. We expect the Fed to keep rate cuts on pause as core services inflation remains sticky at a 4% annualized pace.While June represents a seasonally weak timeframe, July is historically the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years, closing positive in 13 of the last 14 years. Jump to: 0:02 - Welcome And NYC Market Leaders 6:36 - June Swoon Turns Into Rotation 9:50 - Breadth Thrust And Sector Breakouts 16:24 - AI Momentum And Dotcom Lessons 27:40 - Inflation Pressures And Apple Pricing 33:32 - Fed Pause Risks And Fiscal Deficits 35:42 - July Seasonality And Wrap Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  8. Jun 24

    Let’s Run It Hot (FvF Ep. 193)

    In Episode 193 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, talk about the passing of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and what his 18-year tenure actually produced for markets. Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair featured a statement that clocked in at roughly 130 words and told markets almost nothing about how the new Fed intends to make decisions. Sonu makes the case that despite all the hawkish headlines, dot plot drama, and a two-year yield that jumped 16 basis points on Fed day (the largest single-day move on a Fed decision since 2008), actual real policy rates are more accommodative now than they were in March. The committee is split 9-9 on whether to hike this year, Warsh has opted out of the dot plot entirely, and inflation is running well above target, with core PCE likely to finish the year above 3.3%. Apple's announcement that iPhone prices are going up due to memory chip shortages puts a real-world face on the inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. Meanwhile the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday, which is the market's own vote on whether any of this is a crisis. The episode closes with a look at sector leadership, why communication services being down 6% to 7% year-to-date while tech is up 33% is genuinely strange, and why momentum breaking down is the signal to potentially worry about and why it isn't breaking down yet. Key Takeaways:  Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan oversaw a 190% gain in the S&P 500 over 18 years, second only to William McChesney Martin. He also presided over two bubbles that burst within a decade, the tech crash, and the housing collapse, producing what remains the worst decade for equity investors in history.Kevin Warsh's first Fed statement came in at roughly 130 words, the shortest non-emergency statement in modern Fed history. He also declined to submit a dot plot projection. The practical effect is that markets are now pricing guidance from the other 18 members, who are not stepping back from the spotlight.The dot plot went 9-9 on whether to hike in 2026. Three months ago, 12 of 19 members expected at least one cut this year. That shift may explain the volatility. 428 S&P 500 stocks fell on Fed day, the broadest single-day decline of the year, but it does not automatically mean the Fed is hawkish.After subtracting the Fed's own inflation projections from its own rate projections, real policy rates are actually more accommodative now than in March, dropping from an implied 0.7% real rate to 0.5%. With core PCE running around 3.5% to 3.8% annualized, the real policy rate is effectively near zero.Apple's decision to raise iPhone prices due to memory chip shortages is the real-world confirmation of a broadening inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday. The NYSE advance-decline line and the small cap advance-decline line both hit all-time highs the prior Tuesday. Jump to: 0:00 — World Cup Weekend and Father’s Day 3:07 — Remembering Alan Greenspan’s Fed 8:05 — A New Chair and a Short Statement 13:25 — Dot Plot Split and Market Shock 19:45 — Yield Curve Signals and Bond Surprise 24:35 — AI Supply Chains and Price Pressure 28:20 — The Case for a Dovish Fed 34:40 — Economy Strength and Running It Hot 37:10 — A Car Break in Reality Check 40:35 — Breadth Seasonality and Sector Rotation 53:20 — Closing Thoughts and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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4.8
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About

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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