Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
  • 4.8 (46)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 6D AGO

    Still Searching For Buffett (FvF Ep. 185)

    In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out! On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years. The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows.Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded.Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next.Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped.Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story.Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run. Jump to: 0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup  1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock  6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low  11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money  13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha?  16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start  21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate  22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift  26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained  29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check  32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What?  36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett  41:33 - Wrap-Up and Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    43 min

  2. APR 28

    Social Hour With Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith (Social Hour Ep. 4)

    The Social Hour is back for its 4th episode — and this one covered a lot of ground. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the financial media world: Josh Schafer, Newsletter Editor and Investing Personality at Barron's Investor Circle, and Talmon Smith, Economics Reporter at The New York Times. Fair warning: Ryan's 140-pound Great Pyrenees may or may not have been snoring in the background, Talmon showed up fashionably late on Central Time, and somehow the conversation ended with a tease about something big coming to Omaha. But in between? Plenty of substance. They dig into semiconductors ripping 18 days in a row, the Intel comeback story nobody saw coming, and why AI infrastructure names from chips to optical networking to data center builders keep defying expectations. Josh breaks down what's actually driving the earnings surprise story, why FOMO is back in the market, and what the tailwinds (or lack thereof) look like for the back half of the year. Talmon brings the macro and human side of things, connecting the dots between surging corporate margins, collapsing consumer sentiment, and what affordability really means for everyday Americans. Sonu drops some eye-opening services inflation data that reframes the whole "inflation is solved" narrative. Key Takeaways: Semis on a historic run: The SOX up 18 consecutive days with broad breadth, not just NvidiaIntel's surprise: Earnings estimates doubled overnight and the turnaround thesis is gaining tractionAI infrastructure trade alive and well: Telecom ETF names like Iridium and Lumentum up 100%+ YTDEarnings boom: 26% EPS growth across 25% of S&P 500 reporters and this isn't just Big TechConsumer sentiment vs. stock market: Why both can be true at the same timeServices inflation running hot: Personal care, dental, and vehicle rentals all well above targetThe Fed's hands are tied: Labor market steady, inflation sticky, no clear path to cutsGDP watch: Real GDP print incoming, brace for noise and focus on nominalJosh Schafer and Talmon Smith are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 Disclosures and Social Hour Kickoff  1:15 Meet Barron's Josh Schafer  6:30 Semiconductors Rip on AI Buildout  10:20 Intel's Surprise Turnaround Narrative  14:10 Powell Drama Fades as Stocks Rally  18:35 Tech Layoffs and the Capex Squeeze  22:10 Earnings Boom Meets Inflation Pain  25:40 Talmon Smith on Affordability and Sentiment  37:50 The Fed's Dilemma and the 2% Target  52:40 GDP Angst and Market Narrative Confusion  59:30 Where to Follow and What's Next Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick  Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Talmon: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tal-smith-b1898a326/ • X: https://x.com/talmonsmith Connect with Josh: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-schafer-b24723132/ • X: https://x.com/_JoshSchafer Questions? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 3m

  3. APR 22

    The Bull is Back (FvF Ep. 184)

    In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in? Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market. The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here. Key Takeaways: The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just reliefForward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the indexMargin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returnsConsumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flatTelecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified modelsBull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historicallyRyan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the year Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup 0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons 3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule 8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role 9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally 16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy 22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples 29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials 37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence 44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth 47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends 50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story 53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026? 56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    59 min

  4. APR 15

    Talking Oil and Iran with Rory Johnston (FvF Ep. 183)

    A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics. In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days. The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others. If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots. Jump to: 0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction 2:05 Rory’s Path Into Oil Analysis 6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics 10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins 20:50 The Double Blockade Explained 27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets 29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction 33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative 36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation 50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent 57:22 Where To Follow Rory And Closing Connect with Ryan: • Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Rory Johnston: • Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/ • X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 2m

  5. APR 8

    Who’s the Skunk at the Party? (FvF Ep. 182)

    In Episode 182 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into a market environment defined by soaring oil prices, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tension and ask the big question: Who's the real skunk at the party? Inspired by Jamie Dimon's 49-page annual report, the conversation centers on inflation as the underappreciated threat to an otherwise resilient economy. Ryan and Sonu break down what WTI crude at $115 a barrel is signaling, why real yields matter more than nominal ones, and how equity markets have held up remarkably well given the backdrop of war, energy shocks, and a hawkish Fed pivot. The episode covers the March jobs report, a surprisingly solid 178,000 jobs added, and what slowing immigration means for the labor market's break-even rate. Sonu explains the shift to a low hire, low fire economy, why youth unemployment has improved sharply since September, and why manufacturing is showing early signs of life. Ryan and Sonu also discuss portfolio construction in a volatile inflation world: why the traditional 60/40 may not cut it, why small cap value is quietly outperforming, and how managed futures and real assets are earning their place in diversified models. They close with a preview of next week's special guest, oil analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, and a cautious but glass-half-full outlook for the second half of the year. Key Takeaways: - Inflation, not just the war, may be the biggest long-term market risk. - Real yields falling last week was a key positive signal for equities. - The labor market break-even rate has dropped to near zero due to stalled immigration. - Youth unemployment (ages 20 to 24) has fallen sharply since September, a constructive sign. - Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is more important than ever. - Midterm years are historically volatile, but one year off the lows, markets have always been higher. Jump to: 0:00 - Opening And Fast Moving Headlines  2:05 - Oil Spikes And Market Signal Check  8:25 - Real Yields, Valuations, And Midterm History  14:25 - Jamie Dimon On Inflation Risk  18:10 - Building Portfolios For Volatile Inflation  23:00 - Fed Cuts Debate And Growth Indicators  30:00 - Spring Break Stories And Travel Chaos  34:40 - Jobs Report: What Matters Most  42:23 - Layoffs Data And Youth Unemployment Reality Check  49:50 - War Timeline, Commodities Crunch, And CPI Ahead  53:10 - Next Week's Guest: Rory Johnston Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags: #FactsVsFeelings #Inflation #OilMarkets #StockMarket #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MarketVolatility #GeopoliticalRisk #Diversification #EnergyMarkets #InterestRates #WealthManagement #CarsonGroup #InvestingOutlook [inflation risk stock market 2026, Jamie Dimon inflation warning, WTI crude oil price surge, real yields and equity valuations, March jobs report analysis, labor market break-even rate immigration, youth unemployment trends 2026, Fed rate cut outlook 2026, managed futures portfolio diversification, small cap value stocks outperforming, midterm year market volatility history, portfolio construction inflation environment, geopolitical crisis oil prices, low hire low fire economy, Rory Johnston commodity context]

    1 hr

  6. APR 1

    Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel? (FvF Ep. 181)

    In Episode 181 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent memory, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, and what it means for oil markets, global supply chains, and your portfolio. They break down what it would mean if the U.S. exits the conflict without reopening the strait, why Iran could emerge as a de facto regional hegemon, and how a potential toll system on tanker traffic could reshape global energy economics. They also explore why crude oil remains stubbornly elevated despite ceasefire signals, the growing "air pocket" in global oil supply as floating storage drains, and the long term instability risks including nuclear proliferation that could keep an ongoing risk premium baked into energy prices. On the markets side, Ryan and Sonu make the case that this pullback is unlike any bear market on record, with the S&P 500 taking an unusually long time to reach even a 5% decline from its peak. They walk through why the year to date drawdown is almost entirely explained by multiple contraction and not deteriorating earnings, and how forward EPS and profit margins continue to hit new highs even as headlines stay grim. The duo also examine the dramatic drawdowns in mega cap tech names, why the market may be pricing in a recession that isn't materializing, and why diversification across sectors, styles, and geographies is paying off in ways many investors haven't seen in years. The episode wraps with a Disney and Universal trip report, Sonu's allergy update, Ryan's eye health journey, and a big congratulations to his daughter Susanna on her college commitment to Penn State. Key Takeaways: Trump withdrawing without reopening the strait could establish Iran as the dominant regional powerA tanker toll system could generate $100B+ annually for Iran, reshaping Middle East geopoliticsThe S&P 500 decline is 100% multiple contraction; earnings and margins remain strong tailwindsForward 12 month EPS is up 7% in Q1 alone, with half of that gain coming during the crisisNo bear market since WWII has started with such a slow initial 5% decline, a historically unusual patternMega cap tech stocks are down 22 to 35% from highs, pricing in a recession that hasn't arrivedDiversification across value, international, commodities, and small caps is quietly working Jump to: 0:00 – Welcome and the Great Kit Kat Heist  2:10 – Trump's Potential Pullback and Hormuz Control  5:50 – Iran's Toll Scenario and Global Leverage  9:10 – Why Oil Stays Elevated Despite Peace Signals  11:55 – Energy as a Strategic Hedge Trade  16:10 – Hedging Activity and Encouraging Market Breadth  18:45 – Tanker Traffic Slowdown and Supply Time Lags  22:05 – Floating Storage Drawdown Explained  35:23 – Mega Cap Tech Drawdowns and Recession Pricing  41:10 – Slow Burn Selloff and What the VIX Is Telling Us  48:05 – Diversification Lessons From Lost Decades  56:50 – Final Thoughts and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1 hr

  7. MAR 31

    Social Hour With Sam Ro & Frank Cappelleri (Social Hour Ep. 3)

    The Social Hour is back for its 3rd episode — and this one did not disappoint. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the industry: Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, and Sam Ro, founder of TKer. Fair warning: Sonu joins live from Epcot, Ryan gets an unexpected visit from housekeeping mid-stream, and the conversation somehow wraps up with a heated debate about Predator Badlands. But in between, there's a lot of substance. They dig into what's been driving market volatility, why closing near the lows matters more than the headlines, and what the technicals are actually telling us right now. Frank shares his screen and walks through charts on trading boxes, the VIX, and the tech-to-energy rotation that's hitting historic extremes. Sam breaks down why diversification still makes sense even when everything seems to move together, and what consumer spending data is, and isn't, telling us. Sonu connects the dots between oil supply disruptions, the Fed's difficult position, and what it would actually take to spark a near-term rally. Key Takeaways: Closes near the lows matter: 11 of the last 12 sessions closing weak signals bears are in controlTech vs. energy rotation: The ratio just hit its lowest weekly RSI reading in recorded historyPrivate credit check-in: Why it doesn't look systemic, yet,  and what to watchThe Fed's dilemma: Inflation keeps running hot; how long can they stay patient?Bitcoin watch: Still hasn't made a new low and that might mean somethingDiversification reminder: Mag 7 drawdowns are a painful but timely lessonFrank Cappelleri and Sam Ro are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome & Guest Intros  6:21 - Why Markets Turned Ugly  11:06 - Oil Supply Fears & What It Takes To Rally  22:20 - Private Credit Systemic Risk Debate  30:50 - Chart Read: Weak Closes, VIX & the 200-Day Line  43:36 - Energy Surge vs. AI Capital Spending  52:24 - Gold, The Fed Box & Bitcoin As A Risk Signal Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick  Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Sam: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sammyro/ • X: https://x.com/SamRo Connect with Frank: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/ • X: https://x.com/FrankCappelleri Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 4m

  8. MAR 25

    It Takes Two To Tango (FvF Ep. 180)

    In Episode 180 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss a volatile market environment shaped by inflation concerns, rising yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment. They break down why a rough week in markets may not be as unusual as it feels, how inflation is changing the way investors should think about diversification, and why bonds may not provide the same protection they once did. The conversation covers risk-on signals inside the market, falling consumer staples, rising yields competing with dividend stocks, and why inflation regimes change which sectors win and lose. They also discuss Federal Reserve policy challenges, why inflation may remain stubborn, and how corporate earnings and margins continue to support the broader bull market despite volatility. They also explore market history, including how often 5% pullbacks turn into corrections or bear markets, why midterm years tend to be more volatile, and why long-term investors should expect pullbacks as the cost of investing. From diversification strategies and managed futures to investor sentiment extremes and earnings growth trends, this episode focuses on separating short-term fear from long-term market reality. Key Takeaways: Pullbacks are normal: 5–10% dips rarely become bear markets Inflation shifts winners: Sectors and diversification strategies matter more than ever Bonds may not hedge: Rising yields challenge traditional allocations Sentiment extremes can signal opportunities: Record bearishness can be a contrarian buy Earnings remain a tailwind: Margins and profits continue supporting the bull market Jump to: 0:00 – Welcome! 1:06 – Disney Update & Livestream Announcement 2:02 – Monday Rally Then a Rough Week 4:18 – Iran Talks: Rumors vs Reality 8:50 – Risk-On Signals Inside the Market 12:19 – The Fed’s Inflation Problem Returns 19:51 – Favorite Finance Movies 21:49 – Chuck Norris Tribute & Jokes 25:04 – How 5% Pullbacks Usually End 30:35 – When Bonds and Gold Don’t Hedge 37:03 – Travel Chaos, TSA, Clear & Thanks 40:54 – Midterm Year Volatility & Closing Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com [inflation regime investing, market volatility midterm years, federal reserve inflation problem, diversification in inflation environment, bonds vs stocks inflation, managed futures diversification strategy, investor sentiment indicators, stock market pullbacks history, earnings growth stock market outlook, interest rates and equities, portfolio diversification strategies, macroeconomic investing outlook, inflation and profit margins, market corrections vs bear markets]

    46 min
See All (191)

4.8
out of 5
46 Ratings

About

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

Information

You Might Also Like