Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 6D AGO

    2026 Market Outlook (Ep. 169)

    After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026. They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures. Key Takeaways:  • Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains  • Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise  • Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved  • AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends  • 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recession Jump to: 0:00 — Setting The Stage For 2025 1:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom 4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth 9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced 14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts 22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations 27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers 32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions 40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare 46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And Policy Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 7m

  2. 12/31/2025

    Geeking Out On Charts with Chris Kimble and Scott Brown (Ep. 168)

    Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, flies solo for this new episode of Facts vs Feelings, joined by longtime chart-watchers Chris Kimble, former CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, and Scott Brown, Founder of Brown Technical Insights, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the market is signaling as 2025 comes to a close. They dig into market breadth, sector leadership, financials, commodities, and metals that have gone nowhere for over a decade, along with gold’s role, sentiment disconnects, and why certain “boring” areas may be setting up for something much bigger. The discussion blends technical analysis, long-term market history, portfolio construction, and the psychological side of investing, offering context for what could matter most heading into 2026. Chris and Scott are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 — Opening and guest introductions 1:41 — Market surprises and leadership shifts 6:05 — Financials, tech, and market breadth 12:10 — Gold, metals, and long-term breakouts 18:40 — Sentiment, seasonality, and market signals 26:10 — China, Fibonacci levels, and global setup 34:20 — Research, portfolio construction, and the 2026 outlook Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Scott: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/ • X: https://x.com/scottcharts?lang=en Connect with Chris: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-kimble-708b4681/ • X: https://x.com/KimbleCharting Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    46 min

  3. 12/24/2025

    Wrapping Up 2025 with Art Hogan, the Boston GOAT (Ep. 167)

    2025 kept investors off balance, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group turned to Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, to make sense of what actually drove the year. They dig into the gap between perception and reality on market breadth, why speculative pockets unraveled even as leadership widened, and how steady rate cuts, shifting Fed signals, and a softer labor backdrop shaped sentiment. Art also brings decades of perspective on small caps, mid caps, financials, healthcare, and the global forces that may matter most as investors position for 2026. Art Hogan, nor B. Riley Wealth Management, are affiliated with CWM, LLC. Key Takeaways: • Market leadership broadened: More sectors and stocks contributed to gains than investors realized • Speculative areas reset: High-risk themes sold off sharply despite broader market strength • Fed signals stayed mixed: Cuts continued while disagreements inside the committee grew • Labor data softened: Slower hiring and revisions added pressure beneath the surface • Cyclicals built momentum: Financials, healthcare, industrials, and global markets carried meaningful strength Jump to: 0:00 — Setting the Stage for 2025 5:20 — Breadth, Sentiment, and Concentration Fears 9:30 — Speculative Shakeout and AI Valuations 13:45 — Pullbacks, Psychology, and Market Stats 17:15 — The Everything Rally in Context 20:40 — Small Caps, Transports, and Quality Leadership 34:30 — Fed Cuts, Labor Signals, and the 2026 Outlook Connect with Art • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthogan/ • X: https://x.com/ArthurHoganIII Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    48 min

  4. 12/17/2025

    The Fed Comes Bearing Gifts (Ep. 166)

    A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026. Key Takeaways: • The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut • Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026 • Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts • Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers • Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forward Jump to: 0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup 2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth 8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds 14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials 20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals 27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets 35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 2026 41:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks 48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse 53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And Wages Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    56 min

  5. 12/10/2025

    Is Reacceleration in the Cards? (Ep. 165)

    In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed’s next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year. Key Takeaways: • Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears. • The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum. • Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength. • Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating. • Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed’s comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts. Jump to: 0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup 4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts 9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained 16:40 – Tech’s Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation 24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals 32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks 38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income Strength Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    53 min

  6. 12/03/2025

    Back to December (Ep. 164)

    In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return of market breadth, and the growing possibility of reflationary growth into 2026. The conversation also covers rising unemployment data, an increasingly divided Fed, and how the accelerating AI investment race may continue fueling key parts of the market. Key Takeaways Market Breadth Expansion: The advance-decline line hitting new highs shows the rally is widening beyond just mega-cap tech.Sector Rotation Strength: Technology lagged in November while healthcare, materials, staples, and financials helped offset the pullback—validating diversified positioning.Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Whipsawed: Odds of a December cut plunged below 30% before surging back above 80% due to rising unemployment, dovish Fed commentary, and Beige Book labor softness.Reflationary Growth View for 2026: Strong global commodities, resilient demand, and expected Fed easing support the case for reflation rather than recession.Crypto Decouples from Junk Tech: Bitcoin fell sharply while non-profitable tech surged, breaking a correlation that typically signals risk-on/off behavior.AI Spending Cycle Accelerates: Competition among AI leaders is driving massive capital spending—benefiting chipmakers, data centers, and related sectors.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #Reflation #InvestmentStrategy #Macroeconomics #FinancialMarkets #YearEndRally

    47 min

  7. 11/26/2025

    Talking Macro and Charts with Jurrien Timmer (Ep. 163)

    In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, and why international equities are becoming more attractive. They also touch on the role of gold and Bitcoin, how to think about barbell strategies, and what history teaches about market narratives.  Key Takeaways Market Setup: Today’s environment features a cyclical bull market on top of a long-running secular bull market, similar to past periods like 1994 and the late 1990s.Interest Rates & Valuations: The 2022 market drop came largely from PE compression as rates jumped from near zero to 5%, while earnings actually grew.Historical Parallels: Timmer highlights similarities between today and both the late 1960s (loose fiscal policy, sticky inflation) and late 1990s (tech-driven excitement).Barbell Approach: A mix of mega-cap leaders and undervalued international equities may help manage concentration risk, especially as Europe and Japan boost payouts and trade at lower valuations.Gold & Bitcoin: Timmer views both as scarce, diversifying assets that hedge against periods when bonds may struggle, especially in potential fiscal-dominance environments.Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Small caps show mixed performance due to both traditional domestic exposure and speculative, unprofitable tech tied to AI.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Jurrien Timmer: • LinkedIn: Jurrien Timmer • X: @TimmerFidelity Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Disclosure: Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Hashtags #FactsVsFeelings #MarketInsights #InvestingPodcast #MacroOutlook #GlobalMarkets #AssetAllocation #CarsonGroup

    54 min

  8. 11/19/2025

    Volatility, May I Meet You? (Ep. 162)

    In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more. Key Takeaways Fed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese  Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags #FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

    49 min
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4.7
out of 5
42 Ratings

About

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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