Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 1d ago

    Are You Not Entertained? (FvF Ep. 213)

    In Episode 213 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, are joined by Carson Group’s Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management, and Barry Gilbert, VP and Asset Allocation Strategist, to unpack a wild week for markets. They start with the fallout from the Jensen Huang news, as Nvidia slid nearly double digits for the week on reports tied to an alleged Chinese spy, and discuss why the likely congressional hearings and scrutiny of its overseas chip sales matter for investors. The group explains why trouble at one company shifts demand toward other semiconductor stocks rather than erasing it, and how the Supermicro and Dell story offers a useful parallel. From there, the hosts react to the midterm elections, which Barry describes as a blue wave driven by voters’ focus on the price level. They also cover Thursday’s sell-off, when the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the SOX had its second-worst day ever, followed by a big bounce off the 200-day moving average. The team digs into why 44 of 45 data center ballot measures passed to restrict them, and how power constraints and the new Texas governor could squeeze data center returns. The episode wraps with Waller’s call for a 50 basis point hike if core CPI topped 0.3%, why real yields point to resilient growth, how Blake and Barry manage portfolio risk around the AI trade, and Blake’s bullish take on Anthropic’s revenue growth. [Key Takeaways] Nvidia fell nearly 10% for the week after reports that Jensen Huang had a relationship with an alleged Chinese spy tied to a major Southeast Asian chip buyer. Congressional hearings are expected, with Nvidia earnings on the 17th and Huang invited to testify on the 18th.Trouble at Nvidia doesn’t change chip demand. It moves demand around, and other semiconductor companies could gain bargaining power, much as Dell has surged while Supermicro has struggled.The midterms were a blue wave, with Barry saying voters want the economy and prices to be the priority. Consumer sentiment is poor even with low unemployment and 2.3% GDP growth, because people feel the price level, not the inflation rate.The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on Thursday, the SOX dropped more than 12%, and the VIX neared 30. Stocks then rallied sharply on Monday off the 200-day moving average, with over 80% of S&P 500 stocks higher.Historically, the six months after a midterm election have never been lower for the S&P 500, up 14.1% on average (19 for 19). Returns have been even stronger, at 16.5%, when Democrats controlled Congress.Data center restrictions won 44 of 45 ballot measures, and power is the biggest limiter to growth for AI builders. Higher costs and longer timelines could cut a data center’s equity returns from about 15% to near 5%.Waller said he’d back a 50 basis point hike if core CPI topped 0.3%, and core CPI came in at exactly 0.3%. Real yields have held up better than nominal yields, suggesting the bond market expects growth to continue and the Fed to stay tighter.On portfolio risk, the team stresses diversification, watching for rotation rather than abandonment, and the opportunity cost of falling behind. Blake is bullish on AI, citing Anthropic’s roughly $17 billion quarterly revenue, up over 1,000% year over year. Jump to: 0:00 - Cold Open, Guests, And The Jacket 2:15 - Waller’s Fed Signal Before CPI 4:05 - What We Know About Jensen Huang 10:35 - Portfolio Fallout And Semi Rotation 16:45 - Diwali Stories And A Wrigley Scare 19:55 - Midterms Message: Focus On Prices 25:55 - The Sell-Off Then The Big Bounce 31:20 - Data Center Backlash And Power Bottlenecks 37:05 - Managing AI Risk Without Guessing 42:30 - Behavioral Coaching And The Advisor Edge 46:40 - An Open Invite To Advisors 48:55 - Real Yields And Inflationary Growth 52:10 - Omaha Food Culture And Anthropic Hype 55:35 - What We’re Watching Next Week Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  2. Nov 4

    When Will the Madness End? (FvF Ep. 212)

    In Episode 212 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, ask the question on every investor’s mind: when will the madness end? With the Nasdaq 100 down 6.66% in October and the S&P 500 up just a penny over the past five months, the hosts explain how a violent tug-of-war between tech and everything else is hiding enormous turmoil beneath a sideways index. The median S&P 500 stock gained 7% in October, the equal-weight index beat the cap-weighted index by the widest margin since April 2009, and tech and communication services now make up roughly 46% of the index. From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the AI spending boom, with hyperscaler capex estimates for 2027 climbing to about $1.4 trillion, free cash flow turning negative, and $3.1 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments raising the question of whether it is all worth it. They also break down the “hawkish hold” from the Fed, arguing that policy remains easy given 6% nominal GDP growth and 3.1% core PCE. The episode wraps with a look at midterm-year seasonality, the Binance Bitcoin heist, gold and silver, and the data center ballot measures to watch on Election Day, along with their view that a fourth-quarter rally is still possible if tech returns to leadership. [Key Takeaways] The S&P 500 closed October at 7,580.07, just a penny above where it closed on May 29, and has traded in a range of only about 3.5% for three months, which is in the bottom 1% historically. Under the surface, the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 4.9% in October while the cap-weighted index fell 0.9%.Concentration is the driving force: tech and communication services are about 46% of the S&P 500 versus 37% in December 1999, and the top 10 stocks now make up about 39% of the index versus 25% in 1999. Ryan notes that other developed markets are often even more concentrated.Hyperscaler capex for 2026 has been revised up to about $800 billion from an initial $515 billion, and 2027 estimates have jumped to $1.15 trillion, or about $1.4 trillion once SpaceX is included. Growth is expected to slow to just 9% in 2028, though estimates keep getting revised higher.The funding gap is growing: hyperscaler free cash flow has swung from about +100 billion a quarter in 2024 to roughly- 40 billion, and off-balance-sheet commitments total about $3.1 trillion, roughly 3.5 times what is on balance sheets. The big question is whether the capital cycle is worth it.Q3 earnings are up about 30%, and for the first time since Q4 2022 the S&P 493 is growing earnings faster than the Mag 7, at roughly 32.6% versus 22.6% for the five that have reported. ISM manufacturing PMI hit 55.5 with the prices index at about 75, reinforcing the inflationary growth story.Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And The Madness Quote 1:35 - ISM PMI Signals Inflationary Growth 3:50 - October Whiplash Under The Surface 9:40 - Concentration Risk Then Versus Now 18:05 - Sideways Index With Hidden Turmoil 22:55 - Earnings Surprise Beyond The Mag 7 26:50 - Hyperscaler CapEx Hits Trillion Scale 40:05 - Off Balance Sheet Deals And Capital Cycle 40:55 - The Fed Stays Easy Despite Data 47:40 - Midterm Seasonality And Need For Tech 52:20 - Bitcoin Heist AI Hacking Gold Silver 58:55 - Election Watch Data Center Ballot Measures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  3. Nov 3

    Social Hour With Alvin Graylin (Ep. 6)

    The Social Hour is back, and this live stream landed on one of the wildest days of the month. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by Alvin Graylin, Digital Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, author, and a 35-year veteran of AI and semiconductors who has worked on both sides of the Pacific. Fair warning: Ryan threatened to chug his whiskey on air if the market kept sliding, Alvin showed up with a coffee and a one o’clock flight to catch, and the group went deep on poker stories about Binance founder CZ. But in between? Plenty of substance. They dig into Intel’s historic one-day drop and Alphabet’s worst day since its IPO, with Alvin warning that negative free cash flow at the hyperscalers and distressed debt at the neo clouds could be just the beginning. Alvin explains his “beer bubble” analogy for why AI is real but overfunded, and why the first to scale, not the first to invent, tends to win. They also cover the stag hunt versus the prisoner’s dilemma in US-China relations, whether chip controls are working, how AI search is cannibalizing Google’s ad business, and what healthcare and low volatility are signaling as momentum gets hammered. Plus: the stolen Bitcoin, cyber vulnerabilities, who’s liable when AI agents cause harm, and why Alvin thinks AI should be treated as a global public good. Key Takeaways: A historic drop: Intel fell roughly 31% in a single day, yet is still up about 65% year to date. Alvin sees it as more of a PC slump and years of poor management than a macro signalCash flow warning: Every major hyperscaler now has negative free cash flow, and Alvin says debt-fueled neo clouds are the most exposed, with circular funding adding riskThe beer bubble: Alvin explains that AI is a “beer bubble,” not a “soap bubble,” because real value sits underneath, but pouring too fast leaves mostly foamScaling beats inventing: China is focused on diffusing AI across industry with cheaper open source models, while the US is spending over a trillion dollars chasing the frontierSearch is under pressure: Alphabet’s AI search is cannibalizing its own ad revenue, and AI agents don’t click adsDiversification is working: A large low volatility ETF is up about 6% for the month while a major momentum ETF is down 11%, and healthcare is up roughly 10%, with tech and tech-related sectors at around 51% of the S&P 500Accountability gap: Alvin argues that it’s unclear who is liable when AI agents cause harm in the US, while China holds companies and executives directly responsible Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Market Whiplash 2:05 - Alvin’s AI And Policy Background 4:57 - Intel’s Drop And What It Signals 7:54 - Hyperscaler Capex And Debt Risk 14:25 - The AI Bubble Beer Analogy 18:05 - Why Scaling Beats Inventing 22:31 - Stag Hunt And US China Tensions 27:11 - Google Search Disrupted By AI 34:04 - Chip Controls And New Competitors 40:31 - Diversifying Beyond Mega Cap Tech 47:53 - Cyber Vulnerabilities And Crypto Theft 52:43 - Accountability For AI Agents 57:00 - AI As A Global Public Good Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick  Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Jay Woods: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-woods-cmt-5972679/ • X: https://x.com/JayWoods3 Connect with Scott Brown: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/ • X: https://x.com/scottcharts Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  4. Oct 30

    Live From Excell 2026 (FvF Special Release)

    In this special release of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at the Excell Conference 2026, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, are joined by Ed Fitzpatrick, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at JP Morgan, who leads the firm’s U.S. rates team and manages its largest core bond strategy. They dig into why the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting near 5% and whether it should be even higher, given nominal GDP growth running around 8%, an ISM manufacturing price index near 80, and an AI capex build-out that shows no signs of slowing. From there, Ed explains why real yields have reset, why inflation expectations have stayed well behaved, and how the market has begun pricing in as many as four more Fed hikes after the first rate increase in three years. The group also covers the strong labor data behind the 4.2% unemployment rate, the growing role of SPVs in financing hyperscaler data centers, and the debate over whether AI will complement or replace workers, including a look at “surveillance pricing.” The conversation wraps with the case for active fixed income, the bull market’s approaching fourth birthday on October 12, and why Ryan and Sonu still think the wave continues, along with a few lighter moments about Sonu’s soccer injury and the best scary movies for October. [Key Takeaways] Sonu argues the 10-year yield could justify a much higher level given nominal GDP growth near 8%, but Ed notes inflation expectations remain well behaved and that markets are beginning to look past energy-driven pressures toward AI’s future productivity gains.Ed says the 10-year yield rising seven months in a row has happened only six times in the last 60 years, and that cracks may be showing in French debt, emerging markets, and swap spreads as yields push higher.The ISM manufacturing price index is near 80, with every commodity tracked in short supply and rising in price, much of it tied to the AI build-out. Markets are pricing in as many as four additional Fed hikes over the next 12 months.Sonu calls the labor market solid, pointing to unemployment at 4.2%, the prime-age employment-population ratio at 80.7%, and low layoffs. With immigration at a standstill, the economy needs far fewer jobs each month to keep pace.Hyperscalers are expected to need about $400 billion in financing, much of it through data center SPVs. Ed says these deals carry construction, regulatory, and structuring risk, which creates opportunities for active managers who can be selective.Ed expects AI to bring both job displacement and productivity gains, with productivity potentially disinflationary. Sonu counters that “surveillance pricing” could make AI inflationary instead.In September, 10 of 11 sectors were negative and only tech rose more than 5%, leaving the S&P 500 nearly flat. Ryan and Sonu say the bull market, almost four years old, can run longer, but that avoiding a wipeout matters more the longer it goes.Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Introducting Ed Fitzpatrick 3:37 - Why Not Seven Percent Yields 8:56 - Tech Or Bust Versus Jobs Data 12:50 - Resilient Economy And Rate Shock 15:20 - Fed Policy In An AI Capex Boom 18:27 - Active Bond Management And SPVs 21:51 - A Quick Detour Into Culture 23:30 - AI Jobs Debate And Pricing Power 30:43 - Riding The Bull Market Wave 34:24 - Active Fixed Income ETFs And Closing Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  5. Oct 28

    Be Careful What You Wish For (FvF Ep. 211)

    In Episode 211 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, explain why investors should be careful what they wish for when it comes to market breadth. After years of complaints about narrow leadership, breadth finally arrived, with 324 of 500 S&P 500 stocks gaining on October 22 even as the index fell 1.4% and tech dropped 3.3%. They discuss why defensive-led participation is a warning sign, since tech has historically been a top-three sector in nearly every major bull market. From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into Meta’s $95 billion equity raise, three mega AI financing deals announced in a single day, and widening credit default swap spreads at CoreWeave, SpaceX, Nvidia, and Meta. They unpack Anthropic’s S-1, including its explosive revenue growth and $637 billion in infrastructure commitments, and look at Brazil’s 20% market crash and what it says about the limits of prediction markets. The episode wraps with a dot-com era rotation playbook, a rebound in software stocks, contrarian sentiment signals, and a preview of the Fed meeting, where oil above $100 and hot nominal GDP keep the central bank leaning hawkish. [Key Takeaways] Breadth is not always a good sign, and healthy bull markets need tech leadership. On October 22, 324 of 500 S&P 500 stocks rose and the median stock gained 1.1%, yet the S&P 500 fell 1.4% as tech dropped 3.3%. Tech has ranked among the top three sectors in nearly every bull market over the past century, so defensive-led breadth is a yellow flag, though Ryan still expects tech to retake the baton into year-end.AI financing is surging, and credit markets are asking for more. Meta plans to raise up to $95 billion in equity, SpaceX is arranging a $40 billion chip lease with Apollo, and Anthropic and Broadcom announced a $63 billion infrastructure financing. CDS spreads for CoreWeave (1,150 basis points, up from 550 in June), SpaceX, Nvidia, and Meta have all jumped. Anthropic’s S-1 shows annualized revenue rising from $1.5 billion in Q1 to $45 billion in Q2, but its $637 billion in infrastructure commitments leaves the key question of whether demand can keep up.Brazil’s crash is a reminder that prediction markets aren’t crystal balls. The Brazilian ETF (EWZ) fell nearly 20% after an election result that prediction markets, which had Bolsonaro as a heavy favorite, missed even though polls showed a tight race.Rotation can precede a bust, but contrarian signals are flashing. From April to December 2000, the S&P 500 fell 11% while healthcare, utilities, and staples surged, and Sonu argues the low volatility and momentum barbell helps investors ride the AI wave while avoiding a wipeout. Meanwhile, software gained over 6% last week, hedge funds are holding their highest shorts in five years, and the S&P 500 has been higher a year after each of the last 19 midterm elections.The Fed is expected to hold, but the risks lean hawkish. Oil is still above $100 a barrel, nominal GDP is expected to run near 7%, and the 10-year yield is close to 5%. Markets are pricing in more tightening than even the most hawkish Fed members project.Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Cold Open 0:31 - Paper Straws And Unintended Consequences 1:23 - Why Breadth Can Mislead 9:51 - Meta Spending Shock And Market Reaction 14:26 - Mega AI Funding Deals Multiply 18:11 - Anthropic S-1 Growth Meets Big Commitments 24:22 - Brazil Crash And Prediction Market Limits 28:00 - Social Hour Preview With Alvin Graylin 31:43 - Dot-Com Playbook Rotation Before The Bust 37:16 - Software Revival Plus Sentiment Signals 42:30 - Spooky Season Detour And Real Life Risk 46:16 - Fed Path Oil Prices And Hot Nominal GDP 49:59 - Final Takeaways And Friday Reminder 50:14 - Standard Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  6. Oct 21

    Talking Midterms with Libby Cantrill (FvF Ep. 210)

    In Episode 210 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, welcome back Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, for her fifth appearance on the show. With the midterm elections about two weeks away, Libby explains why the data is flashing signs of a potential blue wave: President Trump’s net approval is roughly 20 points underwater, the generic ballot sits near Democrats +9, and an enthusiasm gap favors Democrats. The group discusses why flipping the House is a low bar, why the Senate remains a difficult map for Democrats, and why Texas and even Kansas are suddenly in play, with Sonu noting that prediction markets and models now put Democratic Senate odds at roughly 63% to 70%. From there, Ryan, Sonu, and Libby dig into the policy and market implications. Libby makes the case that voter backlash against AI data centers, with about 70% of voters disapproving, will not fade after Election Day and could bring moratoriums, tougher permitting, and higher costs for the AI infrastructure build-out. They discuss why yields are rising amid the AI capex boom, how a Democratic Congress could mean more spending on the Affordable Care Act subsidies, Medicaid, and defense, and why bond markets may sell off on higher deficits. Libby also explains why risk markets tend to prefer a split Congress, with Ryan correcting the historical S&P 500 returns by party control. The episode wraps with a look at the Fed under Chair Warsh and its communication gap, the limits of presidential power over spending and equity stakes in companies, the odds of nationalizing AI firms, the coming Social Security reckoning and the debate over taxing capital versus labor, and early thoughts on who may run in 2028. [Key Takeaways] Wave election indicators are flashing blue. Trump’s net approval is about 20 points underwater, the generic ballot is near Democrats +9, and there is an enthusiasm gap. Flipping the House is a low bar with Republicans holding just a three-seat majority, and Sonu notes Democratic Senate odds of roughly 63% to 70% across Kalshi, Nate Silver, and Split Ticket.The Senate map is still tough for Democrats. They need to defend seats in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire while winning four additional seats in places like Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Texas. Libby says candidate quality is helping, and that this is more about Republican turnout falling than voters switching parties.Data center backlash is bipartisan and may last. Polling shows about 70% of voters disapprove of data centers, versus roughly even sentiment in September 2025. Libby expects more friction from state moratoriums, permitting, rolled-back incentives, and higher costs in 2027 and beyond.Markets may prefer gridlock. Libby expects risk assets to respond better to a split Congress than a Democratic sweep, and Ryan notes the S&P 500 has averaged 13.7% annualized with a Republican president and split Congress, versus only 4.9% with a Democratic Congress, a figure skewed by 2008.Deficits could rise under either outcome. Libby sees a path where Democrats back more defense and Iran-related spending in exchange for ACA subsidies and reversing Medicaid cuts, which could push bond yields higher.A Democratic Senate would likely block controversial Fed nominees, easing worries about Fed independence. Libby also reminds listeners that Chair Warsh is just one vote of 12 on the FOMC.Jump to: 0:00 - Cold Open And Election Timing 3:10 - Libby Cantrill Joins The Show 6:30 - Data Pointing To A Wave 12:20 - The Senate Map And Candidate Fit 21:05 - How Markets React To Gridlock 23:35 - Voter Revolt Against Data Centers 30:20 - AI Capex And Higher Bond Yields 35:35 - Deficits Defense Spending And Health Care 41:50 - The Fed Under Chair Warsh 48:55 - Limits Of Presidential Power 53:30 - Social Security And Capital Tax Politics 55:25 - Who Runs Next And Party Risks 58:35 - Final Thoughts And Farewell 59:20 - Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  7. Oct 14

    The Bull Market Turns Four (FvF Ep. 209)

    In Episode 209 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, celebrate the bull market turning four. With the S&P 500 up about 128% on a price basis and 131% including dividends since October 2022, the hosts note that no bull market in the last 50 years has made it past its third birthday and failed to reach a fifth. They explain why this one is being driven by earnings rather than valuations: of the 128% price gain, roughly 85 percentage points came from profit growth, and 40 of those from margin expansion, while forward P/E multiples have fallen from about 22x to roughly 19.5x this year as Treasury yields climbed. From there, Ryan and Sonu unpack the market's biggest stress points and risks. They look at why triple-C spreads are blowing out while the broader high yield market and loans are holding up, and why that points to an interest rate problem rather than a credit problem. They discuss strong Treasury auction demand, the rapid growth of hyperscaler bond issuance as a share of net Treasury borrowing, and SpaceX's $150 billion in fundraising and its threat to telecom stocks. Sonu also warns that billions in AI compute contracts begin billing in 2027 to 2029, making 2027 and 2028 the potential reckoning for the AI capex cycle. The episode wraps with a look at the Russell 2000's slide against the S&P 500, the dollar breaking above 100 on the Dixie, the case for staying diversified, and a preview of next week's midterm election episode with Libby Cantrell of PIMCO. [Key Takeaways] The bull market turned four with the S&P 500 up about 128% (131% with dividends). Every bull market in the last 50 years that passed its third birthday went on to a fifth, and year five has historically been strong, with the last fifth-year bear market coming in the 1960s.Earnings, not valuations, are driving returns. About 85 percentage points of the gain came from profit growth, including roughly 40 from margin expansion, versus only 33 from multiple expansion. This year, forward P/E has fallen from about 22x to 19.5x, a roughly 15-point drag offset by 29 points of profit growth.Triple-C spreads are near 900 basis points, but high yield overall is flat and interest rate-hedged high yield and loans are beating cash. The hosts see a duration problem from rising yields rather than a broad credit problem.Hyperscaler bonds have jumped from 1% to 2% of net new Treasury borrowing to about 14% over the last year. SpaceX has raised roughly $150 billion in four months, and its five-year CDS hit a record 200 basis points.Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And A Bull Market Birthday 1:34 - Nobel Prize Irony And Fed Mistakes 4:27 - Triple C Spreads Versus Real Stress 10:59 - The Economist Cover And Bond Fear 15:41 - Bond Auctions And Who Buys Treasuries 17:01 - Hyperscaler Debt And SpaceX Funding 23:30 - OpenAI Headlines And Market Breadth 28:30 - The AI Capex Bill Comes Due 35:12 - Dollar Strength Gold And Diversification 37:07 - Bull Market Turns Four The History 42:11 - Profits Margins And Multiple Contraction 51:28 - Small Caps Versus Higher Yields 53:19 - CPI PPI And What We Watch Next 57:14 - How To Support The Podcast Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

  8. Oct 7

    Market Breadth is Overrated (FvF Ep. 208)

    In Episode 208 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, make the case that market breadth is overrated. With the S&P 500 less than half a percent from an all-time high and the Nasdaq printing a new record, the hosts explain why tech and tech-adjacent stocks, roughly half of the index, are carrying the market even as 10 of 11 sectors finished September in the red. They point to Micron's strong earnings, South Korea's surging chip exports, and rising AI capex estimates as evidence that profit growth is overpowering the rise in yields. From there, Ryan and Sonu break down the revised PCE data, arguing that inflation remains stubbornly hot, and cover the dovish turn from Fed officials that dropped October hike odds from about 70% to roughly 20%. They also discuss why the weak headline payrolls mask a healthy labor market. The episode wraps with a look at fourth-quarter seasonality, cautious investor sentiment near all-time highs, and their view that a global bull market supports staying diversified with a tilt toward tech and AI. [Key Takeaways] September's S&P 500 was nearly flat (down 0.3%) with 10 of 11 sectors in the red, but tech rose about 5%. The hosts expect a breakout in the tech sector ETF to lift the broader market as earnings season begins.Q4 is historically strong, averaging a 4.2% gain and rising more than 80% of the time. A negative Q1 followed by a 10%+ Q2 has never produced a down Q4, with an average return of about 6%.Inflation remains hot despite PCE revisions: Core PCE is running about 3% year over year, market-based core inflation is two to three times its historical pace, and ISM prices indexes are at multi-year highs, pointing to an inflationary growth environment.Fed hike odds for October fell from about 70% to roughly 20% after softer PCE data, light payrolls, and dovish Fed comments, though one more hike in December remains possible.The labor market is healthier than the headline 29,000 payrolls suggest, with the prime-age employment-population ratio at 80.7%, low layoffs, and Challenger job cuts at their lowest September level since 2022.Sentiment remains cautious near highs, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index in fear territory. The hosts view that lack of excitement as a net positive, and note that AI capex and profit growth are outweighing the drag from higher yields. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and What Matters Now 0:31 — Steve Jobs Legacy and Apple’s Run 6:24 — Why Breadth Headlines Miss the Point 10:56 — Tech Concentration and Sector Damage 15:26 — Q4 Seasonality and Earnings Setup 20:11 — Yields Rising Credit Stress Global Moves 22:11 — Europe Debt Fears and Politics Inflation 27:29 — Sentiment Still Cautious Near Highs 32:39 — PCE Revisions Still Hot Inflation 42:09 — PMIs Say Demand Strong Prices Hot 45:00 — Fed Hike Odds Payrolls Yield Curve 54:58 — Final Takeaways and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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