Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
  • 4.8 (44)
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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 2H AGO

    No Tariffs for You! (Ep. 176)

    A Supreme Court decision wipes out a major tariff mechanism, GDP comes in softer than expected, and AI fears collide with an AI spending boom. On the surface, it feels like three separate stories. In Episode 176 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, connect the dots and ask a bigger question: what actually changed, and what simply made headlines? They break down the Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs, what it means for policy going into a midterm year, and why markets barely flinched. From there, the conversation shifts to fourth-quarter GDP, where a weak headline number masked far stronger private demand beneath the surface. The episode then moves into the AI debate, examining the surge in hardware and software investment, the role of energy and power demand, and the viral “AI crash” scenario that sparked fears of a white-collar doom loop. Along the way, they explore global market leadership, sector dispersion, and why human behavior still sits at the center of economic outcomes even in a world shaped by algorithms. Key Takeaways: • Tariff authority reset: The Supreme Court’s ruling removed a major executive tariff tool, reinforcing checks and balances while reducing policy uncertainty • GDP weakness needs context: A government shutdown distorted headline growth, while private demand remained solid • AI spending is real: Hardware and software investment tied to AI contributed meaningfully to 2025 growth • Scenario vs. reality: Extreme AI displacement models raise important questions, but macro consistency and demand dynamics matter • Market dispersion is widening: Software weakness, industrial strength, and global outperformance highlight a split beneath the surface Jump to: 0:00 — Tariff Shock And Supreme Court Ruling 5:30 — Market Reaction, Odds And Policy Limits 9:40 — Tariff Refunds And Who Ultimately Paid 13:50 — China, Trade Winners And Political Timelines 22:00 — GDP Miss Explained And Core Demand Strength 31:00 — AI Capex Surge: Chips, Software And Scale 35:00 — Power Demand, Energy And Inflation Pressures 38:30 — The AI Doom Loop Scenario Debate 47:40 — Market Split: Semis, Software And Global Leaders 55:00 — Portfolio Implications And The Human Edge Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 5m

  2. FEB 18

    A Tale Of Two Markets (Ep. 175)

    Markets keep climbing, headlines keep swinging, and yet sentiment still feels stuck somewhere between cautious and confused. In Episode 175 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, zoom out to examine what is actually driving markets right now and where investors may be misreading the signals. From shifting expectations around growth and inflation to the way earnings, liquidity, and policy are interacting beneath the surface, they separate the emotional narrative from the measurable data. The conversation moves through current market leadership, valuation concerns, recession odds, and the risks that deserve attention without overreacting to every headline. They also explore what history suggests about similar environments, how positioning can amplify volatility, and why staying disciplined often feels hardest right when it matters most. Key Takeaways: • Earnings remain the foundation: Corporate profits continue to anchor market strength, even as narratives shift week to week  • Sentiment lags fundamentals: Investor psychology still reflects caution despite improving breadth and resilient data  • Policy and liquidity matter: Rate expectations, fiscal dynamics, and capital flows are shaping the next phase of returns  • Volatility is part of the process: Pullbacks and headline shocks fit within historical patterns of ongoing expansions  • Discipline beats drama: Long-term investors benefit more from structure and perspective than from reacting to every news cycle Jump to: 0:00 - New Titles And Warm-Up Banter 2:42 - Framing A Tale Of Two Markets 5:10 - Sector Splits And Market Breadth 11:55 - Global Equity Strength And Style Shifts 16:30 - AI Shockwaves Across Industries 22:40 - Tech’s Three Tracks: Software, Semis, Telecom 27:35 - Short Interest, Contrarian Signals In Tech 31:30 - International Rallies And Country Leaders 37:15 - Jobs Revisions And Labor Market Reality 44:20 - Youth Employment, AI Fears, And Data 50:05 - Spurious Correlations And Market Folklore 56:20 - CPI Details, Shelter Math, And Services Heat Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 1m

  3. FEB 11

    Deja Vu All Over Again (Ep. 174)

    After a brutal stretch for software, AI-linked stocks, and crypto, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to ask a familiar question: are markets reacting to real deterioration, or replaying last year’s fear cycle with new headlines? As Claude-triggered concerns ripple through software and hyperscalers, they unpack their theories on why prices have fallen far faster than earnings, how valuation compression has reached levels not seen in over a decade, and why sentiment has turned sharply negative even as the S&P 500 flirts with new highs. From there, the conversation widens. Ryan and Sonu connect record-setting AI capital spending to broader profit growth, explain why global markets like Japan and emerging economies are quietly leading returns, and revisit Bitcoin’s drawdown through the lens of software, risk appetite, and historical market behavior. Along the way, they explore why recessions remain elusive amid massive fiscal and corporate investment, why breadth continues to improve beneath volatile leadership, and why moments that feel uncomfortable often end up shaping the next leg of the cycle. Key Takeaways: AI fear is recycling a familiar playbook: Software and tech selloffs reflect sentiment shocks more than collapsing fundamentalsValuations reset without earnings damage: Multiple compression has driven declines even as forward profit expectations riseCapex is reshaping the cycle: AI investment has reached historic levels with implications for growth, margins, and inflationGlobal leadership is expanding: Japan and emerging markets are outperforming as breadth improves outside U.S. megacapsVolatility feels louder than it is: Flat index returns mask sharp rotations that reward discipline over reactionJump to: 0:00 — Kicking Off With Sports And Stocks 1:08 — Deja Vu: Tech Turmoil Returns 3:18 — The Claude Crash And Software Selloff 7:45 — Valuations, Momentum, And Narrative Risk 12:45 — Hyperscalers’ CapEx Arms Race 18:55 — Bitcoin, Correlations, And Sentiment 25:10 — Global Rotation: Japan Surges, Dollar Softens 30:20 — Dow 50K, Compounding, And Milestones 34:30 — Earnings Strength And Multiple Math 39:20 — Upcoming Data, Outlook, And Closing Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    58 min

  4. FEB 6

    Social Hour With Brian Belski (Ep. 1)

    Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP and Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, went live for the very first Facts Vs Feelings: Social Hour livestream on Friday, 1/30. They kicked things off with special guest Brian Belski for a relaxed, wide-ranging conversation that blended big-picture macro, markets, and a bit of fun along the way. Jump to: 0:00 - Live Stream Kickoff And Banter 3:45 - Belski’s Background And Career Arc 12:30 - Founding Humilus And Investing Philosophy 20:10 - Gold’s Selloff, Fed Debates, And Inflation 31:00 - Secular Bull Market Case And History 40:05 - Travel Detour And Airport Talk 45:10 - Earnings Versus Multiples And Tech Leadership 53:00 - Financials, Mid Caps, And Small Cap Opportunity 1:00:00 Advisors, Building A Firm, And Contrarian Mindset Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 2m

  5. FEB 4

    Warsh & Repeat (Ep. 173)

    After a quiet data week and a loud political signal, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what a potential Fed leadership shakeup could mean for rates, markets, and investor expectations. With Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely next Fed chair, the discussion cuts past headlines to examine his long history at the Fed, his shifting stance on inflation and rate cuts, and why markets may be less willing to take his guidance at face value.  It’s been one of the most volatile stretches for metals in decades, as gold and silver experience sharp pullbacks after a historic run. Ryan and Sonu break down why positioning and sentiment mattered more than headlines, and along the way, they connect the dots between capital-intensive tech investment, the emerging commodity supercycle, and why earnings strength continues to underpin equities despite leadership rotation and policy noise. Key Takeaways: Fed leadership uncertainty adds friction, not clarity: Kevin Warsh’s record reveals a pattern of convenient pivots that may limit his influence over a skeptical committee Rate cuts face structural resistance: Markets are pricing fewer long-term cuts as capital investment and nominal growth keep upward pressure on rates Metals volatility was about positioning, not fundamentals: Extreme bullish sentiment set the stage for sharp pullbacks despite intact long-term trends Gold and silver require sizing, not timing: Volatility, correlations, and rebalancing matter more than chasing short-term price moves Earnings continue to justify the bull market: Strong margins, industrial strength, and resilient consumer spending support risk assets even as leadership rotatesJump to: 0:00 - Setting The Stage: No Jobs Data 1:06 - Who Is Kevin Warsh 4:30 - Warsh’s Crisis-Era Record 9:10 - Politics, Hawks, And Rate-Cut Reality 14:20 - Balance Sheet Beliefs Challenged 19:45 - Gold And Silver’s Wild Swing 25:40 - How To Own Metals Wisely 31:10 - From Software To Capex Supercycle 36:50 - Productivity, Labor, And Rates 41:30 - Fun Signals: Super Bowl And January 46:05 - Earnings, Margins, And Momentum Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    50 min

  6. JAN 28

    Rieder or Not, Gold Shines, & Shutdown Looms (Ep. 172)

    After a powerful run in metals, renewed inflation pressure, and a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to connect the dots between markets, policy, and positioning. Fresh off being named one of the Top 23 podcasts for financial advisors for the second year in a row, the conversation moves fluidly from gold’s breakout and the return of the debasement trade to the growing uncertainty around the next Fed chair and what it means for rates, inflation, and risk assets. They explore why commodities are flashing signals that don’t align with disinflation narratives, how productivity optimism collides with fiscal reality, and why global earnings strength continues to support equities even as leadership rotates. Along the way, they unpack the implications of a potential government shutdown, policy-driven margin pressure across sectors, and why markets tend to move past the headline faster than most expect. Key Takeaways:  • Gold’s message is getting louder: Rising commodity prices, fiscal deficits, and rate pressure are reinforcing the case for metals as portfolio protection  • The Fed chair race matters more than headlines: Rick Rieder’s emergence highlights the tension between productivity optimism and persistent inflation risks  • Inflation remains sticky under the surface: Core services and commodity strength challenge the idea of a smooth glide back to 2%  • Global earnings are doing the heavy lifting: Companies with international exposure continue to outpace domestically focused peers  • Policy noise doesn’t derail trends: Shutdown risks and political uncertainty create volatility, but fundamentals keep asserting themselves — Check the 23 Top Financial Advisor Podcasts To Listen To In 2026: https://kitc.es/4pWNyA9 Jump to: 0:00 Cold Open, Awards, And Snow Jokes 2:35 Gold And Silver Surge Explained 8:40 The Debasement Trade And Inflation 14:50 Global Central Banks Rotate To Gold 19:30 Japan, Yields, Yen, And Risk Assets 23:40 The Fed Chair Horse Race Heats Up 30:20 Productivity, The 1990s, And Why Today’s Different 38:20 Fed Path: Holds, Politics, And Gold Tailwinds 42:30 January Barometer, Tech Lags, And Breadth 48:40 Equal-Weight Tech, Financials, And Policy Risk 53:40 Earnings Setup: Mega-Cap vs The 493 Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    59 min

  7. JAN 21

    When Do We Get Tacos? (Ep. 171)

    After a long stretch of calm markets and steadily improving breadth, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, confront a sudden return of volatility driven by geopolitics, tariffs, and rising bond yields. They walk through why renewed trade threats tied to Greenland are unsettling markets, how bond yields are once again asserting their influence over policy and risk assets, and why metals are responding more decisively than equities. Along the way, they assess the durability of the bull market by digging into household balance sheets, leverage, labor dynamics, and the expanding leadership beyond mega-cap tech. The discussion ultimately circles back to a familiar theme: markets may react sharply to headlines, but fundamentals, earnings power, and financial resilience continue to shape the bigger picture. Key Takeaways: Tariffs and geopolitics are back in focus: Trade threats tied to Greenland and Europe are reviving volatility, even as markets wait for legal and policy clarityBond yields are driving the response: Rising global yields are limiting diversification benefits and increasing pressure on policy credibilityMetals are acting as a release valve: Strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects policy uncertainty and global demandHousehold balance sheets remain resilient: Lower leverage and elevated net worth are helping sustain spending and growthMarket leadership continues to broaden: Small caps, mid caps, and cyclicals are reinforcing the underlying strength of the bull market Jump to: 0:00 — Cold Open And Safety Scare 3:00 — Setting The Stage: Worst Market Day 5:30 — Greenland Tariffs And Policy Chess 11:30 — Supreme Court Tariff Wildcard 15:30 — Yields Spike And Safe Havens Pop 20:00 — Tech Under Pressure, Small Caps Hold 25:30 — Market Breadth And AI Expectations 31:00 — K-Shaped Economy And Delta’s Split Cabin 36:00 — Household Balance Sheets And Leverage 44:00 — Asset Drivers: Housing And Stocks 50:00 — Bear-Market Risk And Feedback Loops Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    53 min

  8. JAN 14

    Rumble in Washington (Ep. 170)

    After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise. Key Takeaways: Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlines Fed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noise Metals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertainty Labor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strong Breadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull marketJump to: 0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals 6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence 12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents 19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks 28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals 31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions 41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per Worker Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    54 min
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About

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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