Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. 6D AGO

    Rieder or Not, Gold Shines, & Shutdown Looms (Ep. 172)

    After a powerful run in metals, renewed inflation pressure, and a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to connect the dots between markets, policy, and positioning. Fresh off being named one of the Top 23 podcasts for financial advisors for the second year in a row, the conversation moves fluidly from gold’s breakout and the return of the debasement trade to the growing uncertainty around the next Fed chair and what it means for rates, inflation, and risk assets. They explore why commodities are flashing signals that don’t align with disinflation narratives, how productivity optimism collides with fiscal reality, and why global earnings strength continues to support equities even as leadership rotates. Along the way, they unpack the implications of a potential government shutdown, policy-driven margin pressure across sectors, and why markets tend to move past the headline faster than most expect. Key Takeaways:  • Gold’s message is getting louder: Rising commodity prices, fiscal deficits, and rate pressure are reinforcing the case for metals as portfolio protection  • The Fed chair race matters more than headlines: Rick Rieder’s emergence highlights the tension between productivity optimism and persistent inflation risks  • Inflation remains sticky under the surface: Core services and commodity strength challenge the idea of a smooth glide back to 2%  • Global earnings are doing the heavy lifting: Companies with international exposure continue to outpace domestically focused peers  • Policy noise doesn’t derail trends: Shutdown risks and political uncertainty create volatility, but fundamentals keep asserting themselves — Check the 23 Top Financial Advisor Podcasts To Listen To In 2026: https://kitc.es/4pWNyA9 Jump to: 0:00 Cold Open, Awards, And Snow Jokes 2:35 Gold And Silver Surge Explained 8:40 The Debasement Trade And Inflation 14:50 Global Central Banks Rotate To Gold 19:30 Japan, Yields, Yen, And Risk Assets 23:40 The Fed Chair Horse Race Heats Up 30:20 Productivity, The 1990s, And Why Today’s Different 38:20 Fed Path: Holds, Politics, And Gold Tailwinds 42:30 January Barometer, Tech Lags, And Breadth 48:40 Equal-Weight Tech, Financials, And Policy Risk 53:40 Earnings Setup: Mega-Cap vs The 493 Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    59 min

  2. JAN 21

    When Do We Get Tacos? (Ep. 171)

    After a long stretch of calm markets and steadily improving breadth, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, confront a sudden return of volatility driven by geopolitics, tariffs, and rising bond yields. They walk through why renewed trade threats tied to Greenland are unsettling markets, how bond yields are once again asserting their influence over policy and risk assets, and why metals are responding more decisively than equities. Along the way, they assess the durability of the bull market by digging into household balance sheets, leverage, labor dynamics, and the expanding leadership beyond mega-cap tech. The discussion ultimately circles back to a familiar theme: markets may react sharply to headlines, but fundamentals, earnings power, and financial resilience continue to shape the bigger picture. Key Takeaways: Tariffs and geopolitics are back in focus: Trade threats tied to Greenland and Europe are reviving volatility, even as markets wait for legal and policy clarityBond yields are driving the response: Rising global yields are limiting diversification benefits and increasing pressure on policy credibilityMetals are acting as a release valve: Strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects policy uncertainty and global demandHousehold balance sheets remain resilient: Lower leverage and elevated net worth are helping sustain spending and growthMarket leadership continues to broaden: Small caps, mid caps, and cyclicals are reinforcing the underlying strength of the bull market Jump to: 0:00 — Cold Open And Safety Scare 3:00 — Setting The Stage: Worst Market Day 5:30 — Greenland Tariffs And Policy Chess 11:30 — Supreme Court Tariff Wildcard 15:30 — Yields Spike And Safe Havens Pop 20:00 — Tech Under Pressure, Small Caps Hold 25:30 — Market Breadth And AI Expectations 31:00 — K-Shaped Economy And Delta’s Split Cabin 36:00 — Household Balance Sheets And Leverage 44:00 — Asset Drivers: Housing And Stocks 50:00 — Bear-Market Risk And Feedback Loops Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    53 min

  3. JAN 14

    Rumble in Washington (Ep. 170)

    After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise. Key Takeaways: Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlines Fed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noise Metals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertainty Labor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strong Breadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull marketJump to: 0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals 6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence 12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents 19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks 28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals 31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions 41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per Worker Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    54 min

  4. JAN 7

    2026 Market Outlook (Ep. 169)

    After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026. They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures. Key Takeaways:  • Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains  • Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise  • Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved  • AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends  • 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recession Jump to: 0:00 — Setting The Stage For 2025 1:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom 4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth 9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced 14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts 22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations 27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers 32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions 40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare 46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And Policy Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    1h 7m

  5. 12/31/2025

    Geeking Out On Charts with Chris Kimble and Scott Brown (Ep. 168)

    Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, flies solo for this new episode of Facts vs Feelings, joined by longtime chart-watchers Chris Kimble, former CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, and Scott Brown, Founder of Brown Technical Insights, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the market is signaling as 2025 comes to a close. They dig into market breadth, sector leadership, financials, commodities, and metals that have gone nowhere for over a decade, along with gold’s role, sentiment disconnects, and why certain “boring” areas may be setting up for something much bigger. The discussion blends technical analysis, long-term market history, portfolio construction, and the psychological side of investing, offering context for what could matter most heading into 2026. Chris and Scott are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 — Opening and guest introductions 1:41 — Market surprises and leadership shifts 6:05 — Financials, tech, and market breadth 12:10 — Gold, metals, and long-term breakouts 18:40 — Sentiment, seasonality, and market signals 26:10 — China, Fibonacci levels, and global setup 34:20 — Research, portfolio construction, and the 2026 outlook Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Scott: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/ • X: https://x.com/scottcharts?lang=en Connect with Chris: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-kimble-708b4681/ • X: https://x.com/KimbleCharting Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    46 min

  6. 12/24/2025

    Wrapping Up 2025 with Art Hogan, the Boston GOAT (Ep. 167)

    2025 kept investors off balance, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group turned to Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, to make sense of what actually drove the year. They dig into the gap between perception and reality on market breadth, why speculative pockets unraveled even as leadership widened, and how steady rate cuts, shifting Fed signals, and a softer labor backdrop shaped sentiment. Art also brings decades of perspective on small caps, mid caps, financials, healthcare, and the global forces that may matter most as investors position for 2026. Art Hogan, nor B. Riley Wealth Management, are affiliated with CWM, LLC. Key Takeaways: • Market leadership broadened: More sectors and stocks contributed to gains than investors realized • Speculative areas reset: High-risk themes sold off sharply despite broader market strength • Fed signals stayed mixed: Cuts continued while disagreements inside the committee grew • Labor data softened: Slower hiring and revisions added pressure beneath the surface • Cyclicals built momentum: Financials, healthcare, industrials, and global markets carried meaningful strength Jump to: 0:00 — Setting the Stage for 2025 5:20 — Breadth, Sentiment, and Concentration Fears 9:30 — Speculative Shakeout and AI Valuations 13:45 — Pullbacks, Psychology, and Market Stats 17:15 — The Everything Rally in Context 20:40 — Small Caps, Transports, and Quality Leadership 34:30 — Fed Cuts, Labor Signals, and the 2026 Outlook Connect with Art • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthogan/ • X: https://x.com/ArthurHoganIII Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    48 min

  7. 12/17/2025

    The Fed Comes Bearing Gifts (Ep. 166)

    A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026. Key Takeaways: • The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut • Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026 • Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts • Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers • Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forward Jump to: 0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup 2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth 8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds 14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials 20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals 27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets 35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 2026 41:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks 48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse 53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And Wages Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    56 min

  8. 12/10/2025

    Is Reacceleration in the Cards? (Ep. 165)

    In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed’s next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year. Key Takeaways: • Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears. • The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum. • Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength. • Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating. • Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed’s comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts. Jump to: 0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup 4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts 9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained 16:40 – Tech’s Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation 24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals 32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks 38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income Strength Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

    53 min
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4.7
out of 5
43 Ratings

About

This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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