Oscars Outsider

Oscars Outsider
  • 4.3 (6)
  • TV & Film
  • Updated Weekly

Oscars Outsider is a podcast where Craig Midwinter and Dylan Ferguson break down the Oscars the way most people break down sports. We follow the awards race week by week — the narratives, the precursors, the surprises, the discourse, and the strategy behind every contender’s campaign. We treat awards season like a competitive ecosystem, tracking momentum, analyzing the politics of voting bodies, and running our own Oscars Fantasy Draft to score nominations, wins, snubs, and everything in between. If you care about movies and the game behind the movies, you’re in the right place.

  1. 3d ago

    The consensus is.... there is no consensus?

    The Oscar race just reshuffled — and we've got receipts. Dylan and Craig dig into the latest Best Picture prediction lists from Variety's Clayton Davis and the full Next Best Picture team, then argue about which hyped contenders are going to quietly vanish by November.On the docket: Project Hail Mary goes from "fake contender" to consensus pick, Digger keeps sliding after that trailer whiff, and Behemoth! emerges as the serious adult drama the race desperately needs. Plus: both hosts just watched The Invite and loved it — so where does Olivia Wilde's chamber comedy actually land among Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting categories? And does Penelope Cruz's clearest path run through The Invite or La Bola Negra?Also in this episode: Austria officially submits Rose (starring Sandra Hüller) for International Feature, Ryan Gosling's Ghost Rider deal and the sad Marvel gravitational pull on prestige actors, Barbie 2's salary standoff, and a quick audit of Best Actress, Actor, and Supporting races.Films discussed: The Invite, The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, Wild Horse Nine, Project Hail Mary, Dune Part 3, Digger, Behemoth!, The Debut, Fjord, Rose, Fatherland, Obsession, Paper Tiger, The Social Reckoning, Being Human, Prime Time, and more.🎬 Subscribe for weekly Oscar race coverage every step of the way to the ceremony.Chapters:0:00 News and headlines11:46 The Invite review26:35 Variety and Next Best Picture lists41:44 Risers, fallers, and wildcards48:54 Acting category predictions

    The consensus is.... there is no consensus?

  2. Aug 5

    Nolan Gets Roasted by His Own Scholar (Plus: Our Way-Too-Early Best Cinematography Predictions)

    Emily Wilson — the scholar whose Odyssey translation Christopher Nolan called his primary source — just published a scathing review in the London Review of Books, and the hosts dig into whether she's right. Then Dylan and Craig go way too early on their Best Cinematography predictions: who makes the five-nominee shortlist, who gets snubbed, and which pick causes the first real disagreement of the episode.Covered this week: The Odyssey (Hoyte van Hoytema), Digger (Emmanuel Lubezki), Dune Part Three (Linus Sandgren — not Greig Fraser, as one host embarrassingly assumed), Fatherland (Laszlo Lukazal), Werewolf (Jarin Blaschke), Hope (Hong Kyung-pyo, never nominated despite shooting Parasite and Burning), and The Black Ball (La Bola Negra). Plus: a live trailer reaction to Martin McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine, the full New York Film Festival lineup (Paper Tiger, Behemoth, The 14th), and why filming in Western Sahara might become the Odyssey's next Oscar-season headache.Films discussed: The Odyssey · Digger · Dune Part Three · Fatherland · Werewolf · Hope · Wild Horse Nine · Behemoth · Project Hail Mary · The Black BallCategories: Best Cinematography · Best PictureChapters:0:00 Intro and news1:27 New York Film Festival lineup10:35 Emily Wilson vs. Christopher Nolan25:19 Wild Horse Nine trailer reaction30:46 Best Cinematography predictions

    Nolan Gets Roasted by His Own Scholar (Plus: Our Way-Too-Early Best Cinematography Predictions)

  3. Jul 28

    The Odyssey Could BREAK the All-Time Oscar Record?

    Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is a genuine cultural moment — but could it become the most-nominated film in Oscar history? Dylan and Craig break down the full awards race case for The Odyssey, including whether it can beat Sinners' all-time record of 16 nominations, how the Anne Hathaway lead-vs-supporting decision could push the count to 17, and what history says about Ben-Hur's blueprint for blockbuster Oscar dominance.They also debate every major performance — Robert Pattinson vs. John Leguizamo for Best Supporting Actor, why Tom Holland is the weak link, and the one category (costume design?) where The Odyssey might shockingly miss. Plus: fall festival lineups for Venice, TIFF, and NYFF — what Paper Tiger, Wild Horse Nine, and Dune III mean for the race.Films discussed: The Odyssey, Sinners, Oppenheimer, Ben-Hur, Dune III, Digger, Paper Tiger, Cliff Booth, I Am Rocky, Bucking Faster, Prime Time, Ink. Categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Anne Hathaway), Best Supporting Actor (Pattinson/Leguizamo), Best Supporting Actress (Samantha Morton), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Costume Design.Chapters:0:00 Intro2:00 Festival news: Venice, TIFF & NYFF13:35 The Odyssey: the film & its moment25:54 Cast & performances32:54 Oscar prospects: nominations record & category odds50:51 Dune III threat & final thoughts

    The Odyssey Could BREAK the All-Time Oscar Record?

  4. Jul 14

    The Digger Trailer Is a Disaster (And Our Full Best Director Predictions)

    The Digger trailer finally dropped — and we are NOT impressed. Dylan and Craig break down why Tom Cruise's long-awaited political satire from Alejandro González Iñárritu feels more like Scary Movie than Dr. Strangelove, and what it means for the Oscar race. Then: our way-too-early Best Director predictions for the 2027 Academy Awards. Who makes the cut? Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey), Denis Villeneuve (Dune 3), Iñárritu himself, Pavel Pawlikowski (Fatherland), Jesse Eisenberg, Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine), and a bold Olivia Wilde pick that Dylan and Craig disagree on. Plus: Penélope Cruz could run Oscar campaigns for THREE films this year, the Michael biopic's jaw-dropping critic/audience score gulf, and why Luca Guadagnino's Sam Altman biopic Artificial may never get a wide release. Films discussed: Digger, The Odyssey, Dune 3, Fatherland, Wild Horse Nine, The Black Ball, Artificial, Michael, Being Human, Prima Facie, Bunker, The Social Reckoning, Cold War, Roma, Birdman, The Revenant, Eyes Wide Shut, Tropic Thunder.#Oscars #BestDirector #TomCruise #Digger #OscarsOutsider

    The Digger Trailer Is a Disaster (And Our Full Best Director Predictions)

  5. Jul 7

    Our Way-Too-Early 2027 Best Actor/Actress Oscar Predictions

    Who is the most overdue actor in Hollywood? According to a Nate Silver model from 2012, it isn't Leonardo DiCaprio — it's Matt Damon. And he still hasn't won. Now Damon (The Odyssey) and Tom Cruise (Digger) are both heading into the 2027 Oscar race with massive 'he's finally due' narratives — and Dylan and Craig are making their way-too-early calls on who gets in and who takes home the statue. This week: full five-nominee slates for Best Actor and Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, predicted winners, and dark horses nobody else is talking about yet. On the Best Actor side: why the Cruise vs. Damon clash mirrors one of the great rivalries in Oscar history, whether Jeremy Strong (The Social Reckoning) runs as lead or supporting, and why Timothée Chalamet might quietly accumulate his way into the race via Dune 3. On the Best Actress side: why both hosts pick Sandra Hüller but for different movies — and why a new Academy rule could make her the first performer nominated twice in the same category since the 1930s. Plus: the Al Pacino / Scent of a Woman parallel that makes Tom Cruise the 2027 frontrunner, the Ingrid Bergman / Gaslight parallel pointing toward a Hüller win, Craig's case for Julianne Moore (The Debut), and why Elon Musk promoting the new Uwe Boll film as the antidote to The Odyssey might be the funniest thing to happen in Hollywood this year. Films discussed: Digger, The Odyssey, Fjord, The Debut, The Social Reckoning, Michael, Wild Horse Nine, Obsession, Rose, Fatherland, A Place in Hell, Gentle Monster, Project Hail Mary, I Swear, The Invite, Jack of Spades, All of a Sudden 🎬 Subscribe for weekly Oscars race coverage | New episodes every week

  6. Jun 30

    Our First 2026 Oscar Predictions Are Already a Mess

    It’s way too early… so naturally we’re making our first Oscar predictions. This week on Oscars Outsider, we start building the 2026 Best Picture race from scratch: what already feels like a lock, what feels wildly overhyped, and which movies we’re reluctantly admitting might be stronger than we want them to be. We get into The Odyssey, Digger, Project Hail Mary, Michael, Fjord, Dune: Part Three, Fatherland, Wild Horse Nine, The Social Reckoning, and more. Are Project Hail Mary and Michael already undeniable? Is The Odyssey the obvious frontrunner, or could backlash open the door for Dune: Part Three? And which early contenders are we already ready to drop? Plus: Nolan’s unusual rollout for The Odyssey, the problem with influencer screenings, and why this Oscar race already feels like a mess.

    Our First 2026 Oscar Predictions Are Already a Mess

  7. Jun 18

    The Oscars Have No Idea What a Score Is

    This week on Oscars Outsider, we dive into one of the Academy’s strangest and most confusing categories: Best Original Score.From the early days of studio music departments to decades of split categories, reunited categories, musical exceptions, adaptations, and shifting definitions of what “original” even means, the Oscar for film music has had one of the messiest histories of any Academy Award. We trace how the category changed over time, why musicals caused so many problems, and how the Academy ended up rewarding — and ignoring — some of the most famous scores in movie history.Along the way, we talk Bernard Herrmann, Henry Mancini, Duke Ellington, West Side Story, John Williams, Schindler’s List, Jurassic Park, Hans Zimmer, The Lion King, and why Oscar voters keep struggling to separate great movie music from great scores.

    The Oscars Have No Idea What a Score Is

  8. Jun 12

    Can Spielberg’s Alien Movie Actually Win Oscars?

    Spielberg is back with aliens — but is that enough to make Disclosure Day a real Oscar contender? This week on Oscars Outsider, we close the book on Cannes, revisit whether the Palme d’Or winner Fjord is now a serious awards player, and dig into the strange politics already forming around its Oscar narrative. Then we turn to the summer movie season: Scorsese’s AI storyboarding controversy, Taylor Swift entering the Best Original Song race with Toy Story 5, whether Project Hail Mary could follow the Sinners path, and the big question behind our thumbnail: can Spielberg turn aliens into Oscar gold one more time? We also talk Netflix’s shifting awards strategy, YouTuber-to-filmmaker anxiety, horror’s box office boom, Obsession, The Backrooms, and why nostalgia for the 1980s may finally be losing to internet-era nostalgia. Chapters: 0:00 Cold Open 0:27 Welcome 0:54 Cannes Capstone: Fjord Wins the Palme d'Or 2:01 The Black Ball & Netflix's Awards Retreat 6:53 Is Fjord the Conservatives' Oscar Movie? 12:52 Scorsese Endorses an AI Company 16:30 Taylor Swift's Toy Story 5 Song 18:14 Project Hail Mary & the Sinners Playbook 19:45 Spielberg's Disclosure Day: Best Picture Player? 25:31 Obsession: The $1M Box Office Monster 28:22 The YouTuber-to-Filmmaker Debate 31:12 Backrooms Review 34:19 The Future of Nostalgia (RIP Masters of the Universe) 36:05 Tribeca & the Holding Pattern 37:33 Honorary Oscars + Outro

    Can Spielberg’s Alien Movie Actually Win Oscars?
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Ratings & Reviews

4.3
out of 5
6 Ratings

About

Oscars Outsider is a podcast where Craig Midwinter and Dylan Ferguson break down the Oscars the way most people break down sports. We follow the awards race week by week — the narratives, the precursors, the surprises, the discourse, and the strategy behind every contender’s campaign. We treat awards season like a competitive ecosystem, tracking momentum, analyzing the politics of voting bodies, and running our own Oscars Fantasy Draft to score nominations, wins, snubs, and everything in between. If you care about movies and the game behind the movies, you’re in the right place.

Information

  • Creator
    Oscars Outsider
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    127
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Oscars Outsider
  • Show Website
    Oscars Outsider

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