As the calendar turns to 2026, dairy economists Corey Geiger and Ben Laine join the Hoard’s Dairyman Podcast to unpack what lies ahead for dairy demand, milk prices, and consumer behavior. While milk production is climbing both in the U.S. and globally, the industry is facing a familiar challenge: supply is growing faster than demand, putting pressure on milk prices early in the year. Despite the headwinds, Geiger and Laine highlight several bright spots. U.S. retail dairy sales continue to grow, exports are strong, and demand for high-protein dairy products is surging. Categories like cottage cheese, yogurt, dairy creamers, and protein beverages are expanding rapidly, driven in part by changing nutrition trends and the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs that emphasize protein intake. At the same time, cheese demand remains resilient, though the hosts caution that slowing pizza sales and an aging U.S. population could reshape how cheese is consumed in the years ahead. The conversation also explores how policy and demographics influence demand. The return of whole milk to U.S. schools and favorable positioning for dairy in the 2026–2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans offer incremental opportunities, especially in school meals and SNAP programs. However, consumer behavior varies widely by income level, with inflation and employment confidence playing a major role in where and how people eat—and how much dairy they consume. A major differentiator for U.S. dairy farmers remains beef-on-dairy. Strong beef prices are providing a critical revenue stream that is helping offset lower milk prices and is even influencing herd management decisions. Geiger and Laine explain how this advantage sets U.S. producers apart from competitors in the European Union and New Zealand, where growth is more constrained. Looking ahead, the hosts agree that margins will remain under pressure in the near term, but they are cautiously optimistic about improvement in the second half of the year. Risk management tools, diversified revenue streams, and continued innovation around protein-focused dairy products will be key as the industry navigates global oversupply, shifting consumer preferences, and ongoing market volatility. About the Guests Corey Geiger is the lead economist for dairy production and processing and a longtime leader within the dairy industry. Before joining the Farm Credit System, he spent nearly three decades at Hoard’s Dairyman as editor, helping launch the publication’s Chinese-language edition and reporting on dairy farming across 48 states and four continents. Geiger has served in numerous leadership roles, including President of Holstein Association USA, advisor to national dairy organizations, and board member for several industry institutions. Ben Laine is a senior dairy analyst at Terrain with more than 15 years of experience analyzing dairy markets, consumer trends, and global trade. His background includes roles at Rabobank, Agri-Mark Dairy Farmer Cooperative, and EcoBank, where he focused on dairy commodity trading, risk management, and market strategy. Laine holds a master’s degree in resource economics from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and works closely with dairy producers and lenders to navigate an increasingly volatile global dairy landscape. 👉 Please follow us on your favorite podcast app, and don't forget to like and subscribe on YouTube. YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HoardsDairyman1 Website: https://hoards.com/
