On this special episode of Invested, Michael Eisenberg pulls together the sharpest AI arguments from the last year of the show and puts them in conversation with one another. You'll hear from Gavin Baker, Sarah Tavel, Micha Kaufman, Elad Raz, Eran Shir, Zach Greenberger and David Magerman - seven investors and founders who disagree about almost everything except the stakes. This is not a group of people arguing over the same set of facts. Because the field is moving so quickly, each of them is describing a different epoch of AI. Compute was supposed to depreciate quickly - instead, demand is growing. Inference wasn't supposed to be profitable - today it is wildly profitable. AI was supposed to be a game for frontier labs only - open source models are now competing with them. And AI was supposed to trigger mass unemployment - the latest numbers suggest the companies going all in on AI are hiring more people, not fewer. From David Magerman calling the financial bubble 10 to 50 times the size of the internet bubble, to Gavin Baker walking through the ROI math on trillions of dollars of GPU spend, to Micha Kaufman arguing that AI gives everyone the same superpowers and therefore gives no one an advantage, to Elad Raz on why the age of compute has replaced the age of energy - this is a fast, honest map of where the debate actually stands. They discuss: Whether AI is a financial bubble - and whether that even matters The $200 billion, $600 billion and now trillion-dollar ROI question on GPU spending What actually improved (and what didn't) between Hopper, Blackwell and Rubin Why inference is gross-margin profitable while model training amortization isn't pretty The employment debate: replacement, augmentation or temporary dislocation What AI does to junior work, mentorship and the pipeline of senior engineers Scaling agent capital instead of human capital - and paying developers to spend tokens Why building a "bridge" the labs will bulldoze is a treacherous strategy Why data and information theory still beat throwing everything into an LLM The unknowable economic returns to superintelligence Why the world moved from fighting over food, to energy, to compute Featured in this episode: Gavin Baker is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Atreides Management, LP. Prior to founding Atreides in 2019, Gavin was at Fidelity Investments from 1999 to 2017, most recently as the portfolio manager of the Fidelity OTC Portfolio. Sarah Tavel is a Venture Partner at Benchmark, where she invests in network effect businesses and applications leveraging AI. She was the first female General Partner in Benchmark's history. Prior to Benchmark, Sarah was a General Partner at Greylock Partners, and she joined Pinterest in 2012 after co-leading the Series A investment while at Bessemer Venture Partners. Micha Kaufman is the founder and CEO of Fiverr, the global freelance marketplace that helped define the gig economy. Since launching the platform in 2010, Micha has led Fiverr from a scrappy, bootstrapped startup into a publicly traded company offering millions of services across hundreds of categories. Elad Raz is the Founder and CEO of NextSilicon, a deep-tech company redefining high-performance computing and AI infrastructure. A graduate of the IDF's elite Unit 8200, Elad brings more than 20 years of experience in technology, entrepreneurship and executive leadership. Eran Shir is the Co-Founder, CPO & Chairman at Nexar. He is a serial entrepreneur and investor, and previously served as Entrepreneur in Residence at Aleph. Zach Greenberger is the CEO of Nexar, leading the company's mission to build AI for the physical world using real-world driving data. Prior to Nexar, Zach served as Chief Business Officer at Lyft and held leadership roles at Tesla. Since their episode aired, Nexar and Nauto have agreed to merge, with Zach leading the combined company. David Magerman is a co-founder and Managing Partner at Differential Ventures, a New York-based venture capital fund investing in deep technology companies that help power the data-driven economy. Previously, he spent the entirety of his career at Renaissance Technologies, widely recognized as the world's most successful quantitative hedge fund management company. If you want a clear-eyed view of the bull case, the bubble case, the labor case and the compute case - all in one sitting - this compilation is essential listening. Michael's hope is that you finish it with more questions than answers, and that you go deeper on the full episodes. Please rate this episode 5 stars wherever you stream your podcasts! KEY TOPICS 00:00 - "AI Is a Machine Gun We're Giving Children" 00:43 - Same Topic, Different Epochs 02:10 - How Wrong We All Were a Year Ago 03:12 - A Bubble 10 to 50x the Internet Bubble 03:46 - "OpenAI Isn't a Functioning Business" 03:58 - Hopper to Blackwell: Linear Scaling 04:31 - The Trillion-Dollar ROI Question 05:23 - "I've Never Seen Anything Like This" 06:13 - The Great Employment Debate 07:08 - It's Still the First Inning 07:33 - The Illusion of AI Superpowers 08:51 - Replacing Labor or Augmenting It? 09:13 - What AI Does to Junior Work 09:30 - Scaling Agent Capital, Not Headcount 10:28 - $300 a Day in Tokens Per Developer 12:01 - "We're Going to Bulldoze You" 13:15 - Data Beats Throwing It All Into an LLM 14:12 - Food, Then Energy, Now Compute 14:36 - The Unknowable Returns to Superintelligence 15:22 - More Questions Than Answers RESOURCES Watch the full episode with Gavin Baker - https://www.aleph.vc/content/gavin-baker Watch the full episode with Sarah Tavel - https://www.aleph.vc/content/sarah-tavel Watch the full episode with Micha Kaufman - https://www.aleph.vc/content/micha-kaufman Watch the full episode with Elad Raz - https://www.aleph.vc/content/elad-raz Watch the full episode with Eran Shir & Zach Greenberger - https://www.aleph.vc/content/eran-shir-and-zach-greenberger Watch the full episode with David Magerman - https://www.aleph.vc/content/david-magerman Follow Gavin on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/gavinbaker-portfoliomanager/ Follow Sarah on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarahtavel/ Follow Micha on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/michakaufman/ Follow Elad on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/eladraz/ Follow Eran on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/eranshir/ Follow Zach on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/zach-greenberger-a3a3444a/ Follow David on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-magerman-954b25174/ Subscribe to Invested here - https://content.aleph.vc/invested Learn more about Aleph - https://www.aleph.vc/ Sign up for Aleph's monthly email newsletter - https://newsletter.aleph.vc/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel - https://www.youtube.com/@aleph-vc/ Follow Michael on Twitter - https://twitter.com/mikeeisenberg Follow Michael on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mieisenberg/ Follow Aleph on Twitter - https://x.com/aleph?s=20 Follow Aleph on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/aleph-vc/ Follow Aleph on Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/aleph.vc/ CREDITS Executive Producer: Erica Marom Producer: Sofi Levak, Dalit Merenfeld Video and Editing: Nadav Elovic Music and Creative Direction: Uri Ar Content and Editorial: Jackie Goldberg Design: Nimrod Sapir