Don't Get Last! Guillotine Fantasy Football Podcast

Joe Harris
  • 5.0 (16)
  • Fantasy Sports
  • Weekly

Welcome to the Don't Get Last Guillotine/Chopped/Knockout/Eliminator Fantasy Football Podcast! In Chopped leagues, there are no head-to-head records—the lowest-scoring team each week is instantly eliminated, and their roster hits waivers. We break down the game theory, economics, and weekly matchups we need to survive all 17 weeks and take home the championship. Tune in twice a week for dollar-by-dollar FAAB waiver guides, opponent-adjusted starts and sits, community roster reviews, and the worst bids across the Chopped landscape. Play smart, protect your budget, and Don't Get Last!

  1. 23h ago

    Week 8 Guillotine Fantasy Football: Starts, Sits, Worst FAAB Bids & Team Reviews!

    Welcome back to the Don't Get Last Guillotine and Chopped Fantasy Football Podcast! In this midweek masterclass, we are breaking down our complete Week 8 survival guide—featuring live community roster reviews, the Top 10 WORST FAAB bids of the week, game-changing bidding psychology, and opponent-adjusted Starts and Sits.First, we announce our brand-new Last Chance / Leftovers Listener League. Then, we react to the wildest bidding disasters from Week 8 waivers—including an $801 Derrick Henry panic-bid, $1,000 blown on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Bijan Robinson, and a manager who spent their literal LAST $1 of FAAB on an injured Alec Pierce!Next, we dive deep into the math behind bidding tiebreakers using data from Owen at ChopFantasyFootball.com. We break down why bidding on 2s and 6s (e.g., $26 and $76) systematically beats common clusters, why the "FAAB Bubble" cuts player prices in half between Weeks 8 and 10, and why starting QB/WR stacks increases your double-bust risk by 30% while the "Friends with Benefits" wide receiver strategy reduces chop risk by 13%.Finally, we review five listener rosters, explain the "Wait Until 3 PM" quarterback decision hack, and deliver rapid-fire Week 8 Starts and Sits using opponent-adjusted data.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📌 EPISODE BREAKDOWN & CHAPTERS (1:14:00)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Intro & Announcement: The "Last Chance" Listener League!02:15 - Honorable Mentions: $123 Joe Burrow & $500 JSN04:00 - Worst Bids #10–#7: $801 Derrick Henry & The 400 FAAB Trade08:45 - Worst Bids #6–#2: The $1,000 Club (Gibbs, Amon-Ra, Bijan) & $41 JK Dobbins12:30 - The #1 Worst Bid: Spending Your Very Last $1 on Alec Pierce13:15 - What A Real Waiver Run Looks Like: Joe's Exact 15-Player Bidding Card17:45 - The RNG Bidding Myth: Why Overthinking Predictability Hurts You20:30 - Bidding Psychology & Last Digits: Exploiting the $26 & $76 Dead Zones29:10 - Roster Structure Data: Stacking Risks vs. Friends With Benefits (+13% Floor)33:45 - The FAAB Bubble Pops: Why Prices Cut in Half Between Weeks 8 and 1037:15 - The "Wait Until 3 PM" Quarterback Game Theory Strategy41:00 - Community Roster Review #1: Alex D's Best Ball / TE-Premium Squad47:15 - Community Roster Review #2: Mike Hawkins' 7-Team Accelerated League51:30 - Community Roster Review #3: Andre's 9/10 Masterclass (2-for-1 Trades)54:15 - Community Roster Review #4: Evan M's RB2 Scramble & Burrow/Chase Stack57:30 - Community Roster Review #5: Freezing Sea Lions & Week 11 Bye Planning1:01:00 - Rapid-Fire Week 8 Starts: Egbuka & Michael Wilson vs. DAL1:04:15 - Rapid-Fire Week 8 Sits: Fade AJ Brown vs. MIA, Waddle & Luther Burden vs. SEA1:06:45 - Tight End Matchups: TJ Hockenson vs. DET & Fading Sam LaPorta vs. MIN1:08:40 - Quarterback Streamers: Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold & Fading Mahomes vs. DEN1:10:15 - Running Back Starts & Traps: Smash Stevenson & Fading Jonathan Taylor vs. MIN1:12:00 - Chopped Obituaries: Heartbreakers for Jake P & Sam W & Outro━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💀 WHAT IS GUILLOTINE / CHOPPED FANTASY FOOTBALL?━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━In a Guillotine league, there are no head-to-head records or traditional playoff brackets. Every single week, the lowest-scoring team across the entire league is instantly eliminated ("chopped"). That team’s complete roster gets thrown onto waivers, triggering high-stakes Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) bidding wars among surviving managers. Surviving the weekly cut line is everything!💬 JOIN OUR LAST CHANCE LEAGUE & SUBMIT YOUR TEAM:Want in on our Leftovers / Last Chance Guillotine League drafting this week? Drop a comment below, shoot us an email, or hit us up on Twitter (@DontGetLast) to claim a spot. If you want your roster reviewed on next week's episode, send over a screenshot of your lineup and league budget!#GuillotineLeagues #FantasyFootball #Week8Fantasy #StartSit #GuillotineStrategy #ChoppedFantasy #FAABStrategy #WorstFAABbids #NFLStats #DontGetLastPodcast #FantasyFootballAdvice

  2. 3d ago

    Survive the Chop: Guillotine League Waiver Wire & FAAB Guide for Week 8!

    Welcome back to the Don't Get Last Guillotine and Chopped Fantasy Football Podcast! In this episode, we dive deep into our complete Week 8 Waiver Wire & FAAB Bidding Guide, breaking down actionable, dollar-by-dollar valuations for every fantasy-relevant player on all 32 NFL teams. First, we break down essential midseason bidding theory and answer listener mailbag questions using game-changing historical win-rate data from ChopFantasyFootball.com. We explore the "Deflation Value Cliff," why our remaining FAAB is about to double in purchasing power, why capping our largest single bid at $250 gives us the highest statistical championship odds (+30%), and the exact digits we should be ending our bids on to win tiebreakers. Then, we dive into a comprehensive game-by-game breakdown of the entire Week 7 slate—covering injury fallout, post-bye stashes, and sneaky targets for the Bills, Jaguars, Chargers, and Commanders! ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 EPISODE BREAKDOWN & CHAPTERS (1:24:00) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 00:00 - Intro & The 3 Golden Rules of Midseason FAAB Strategy 03:15 - Bye Week Roadmap: Navigating Weeks 8, 9, 10 & The Week 11 Bloodbath 06:45 - Mailbag: How to Handle a Missing RB2 Without Nuking Your Budget 10:30 - FAAB Deflation Data: Why Player Prices Are About to Crater 14:15 - The $250 Max Bid Rule: Historical Championship Win Rates 18:00 - Tiebreaker Psychology: Why Winning Bids End in 2 and 6 21:30 - Patriots vs. Bears: Drake Maye's Surge & Luther Burden's Star Turn 29:45 - Steelers vs. Saints: Fading DK Metcalf & Post-Bye Saints Discounts 35:20 - 49ers vs. Falcons: Christian McCaffrey Bye Value & Bijan's 20-Touch Floor 41:40 - Browns vs. Titans: Quinshon Judkins 3-Week Window & Fading Cam Ward 47:15 - Colts vs. Vikings: Jonathan Taylor Trade Rumors & Jordan Mason 53:30 - Dolphins vs. Jets: Ollie Gordon II RB2 Value & Breece Hall Buy Window 59:40 - Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Bucky Irving Breakout & Chuba Hubbard Bounceback 1:04:15 - Bengals vs. Ravens: Chase/Higgins Stack & Derrick Henry Warning Signs 1:10:00 - Giants vs. Texans: Cam Skattebo Hamstring & Nico Collins Bye Discount 1:14:15 - Broncos vs. Cardinals: Trey McBride Monster Volume & Fading Denver Backs 1:17:30 - Packers vs. Lions: Josh Jacobs Return & Jameson Williams Upside 1:20:15 - Rams vs. Raiders: Kyren Williams, Blake Corum & Brock Bowers 1:21:45 - Chiefs vs. Seahawks: Kenneth Walker Workhorse & Trade Deadline Traps 1:22:45 - Monday Night Football Outlook & Post-Bye Values (Jags, Bills, Commanders) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 KEY STRATEGIES & FAAB VALUES IN THIS EPISODE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ • The Week 11 Bye-Week Apocalypse: We need to start planning NOW. Week 11 features six fantasy-loaded teams on bye (Falcons, Browns, Packers, Rams, Patriots, Seahawks). Elite rosters will get chopped if they don't prepare their bench depth ahead of time. • The $250 Max Bid Rule: ChopFantasyFoot data proves that managers who blow $400 to $1,000 on a single marquee player are significantly less likely to win their leagues. The mathematical sweet spot for championship teams is capping your single highest bid of the year between $200 and $250 (20–25% of your total budget). • Optimal Bidding Digits: 25% of all bids end in 0, and 15% end in 1. By ending our bids in a 2 or a 6 (e.g., $152 or $206), we systematically snipe tiebreakers against lazy managers for minimal capital. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💀 WHAT IS GUILLOTINE / CHOPPED FANTASY FOOTBALL? ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ In a Guillotine league, there are no head-to-head records or traditional playoff brackets. Every single week, the lowest-scoring team across the entire league is instantly eliminated ("chopped"). That team’s complete roster gets thrown onto waivers, triggering high-stakes Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) bidding wars among surviving managers. Surviving the weekly cut line is everything! #GuillotineLeagues #FantasyFootball #FantasyWaiverWire #FAABStrategy #Week8Fantasy #ChoppedFantasy #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFLStats #DontGetLastPodcast #StartSit

  3. Oct 23

    Guillotine Fantasy Football Team Reviews, Midseason Strategy, Start/Sit, and Announcement!

    Welcome back to the Don't Get Last Guillotine and Chopped Fantasy Football Podcast! In this episode, we are rolling out a fresh midweek format tailored for where we are in the fantasy season: deep midseason game theory, listener roster reviews, trading blueprints, and rapid-fire matchup-adjusted starts and sits.First, we make a big show announcement: as our leagues shrink to 12 teams, we're shifting our midweek episodes toward high-level strategy, game theory, and live community team audits. We dive into the math behind the "Max Bid Rule" using historical win-rate data from Owen at ChopFantasyFoot.com—breaking down why dropping $600+ on Jahmyr Gibbs destroys your title odds, why holding 75–90% of your FAAB gives you a 70% win-rate boost, and why saving too much can also leave you stranded.Next, we reveal our complete trading playbook for Guillotine leagues (how to sell high as a juggernaut, consolidate 2-for-1s as an average squad, and execute Monday Night "Survival Trades" from your flex spot), followed by live reviews of two community rosters. Finally, we close with rapid-fire Week 7 start/sit matchups using opponent-adjusted data from Josh Larky!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📌 EPISODE BREAKDOWN & CHAPTERS (1:00:00)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Midweek Show Announcement: Shifting to Strategy & Community Reviews05:00 - The FAAB Win-Rate Data: How Much Budget Should We Have in Week 7?10:00 - The Max Bid Rule: Why $200–$300 Wins Championships (And $600 Loses)13:40 - When Is Saving Good vs. Bad? Navigating League Economies26:00 - The Guillotine Trading Playbook: Good, Average & Struggling Teams35:00 - Community Team Review #1: Hammy's 8/10 Roster39:00 - Community Team Review #2: Jake P's Chase Brown & CeeDee Lamb Dilemma46:00 - Rapid-Fire Matchup Metrics: Josh Larky's Opponent-Adjusted Data49:00 - WR Starts & Matchups: 49ers Outside Options, Malik Nabers & Shakir50:00 - WR Fades & Traps: Garrett Wilson, Keenan Allen & Chiefs Receivers51:20 - Tight End Smash Spots: Tucker Kraft vs. Detroit's Historical Funnel (+14.2 PPG!)55:40 - Quarterback Streamers & Sits: Jordan Love, Bo Nix & Fading Mahomes vs. Seattle56:30 - Running Back Landmines: Why Jonathan Taylor & Tony Pollard Face Brutal Walls57:45 - How to Submit Your Team for Review, Community Feedback & Outro━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━🧠 KEY MIDSEASON STRATEGY TAKEAWAYS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━• The "Sweet Spot" Max Bid: Historical data shows that champions rarely drop 60–90% of their starting FAAB on a single superstar. Teams whose largest single bid of the year was between $200 and $250 (20–25% of starting budget) had the highest correlation with winning the entire league (+30% above average).• Budget Sweet Spot in Week 7: Teams holding between 75% and 90% of their starting FAAB right now are 70% more likely to win their league outright compared to average. However, managers holding 90%+ without upgrading are only +20% more likely—proving that hoarding too hard and refusing to buy high-floor starters is also a trap.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💀 WHAT IS GUILLOTINE / CHOPPED FANTASY FOOTBALL?━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━In a Guillotine league, there are no head-to-head records or traditional playoff brackets. Every single week, the lowest-scoring team across the entire league is instantly eliminated ("chopped"). That team’s complete roster gets thrown onto waivers, triggering high-stakes Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) bidding wars among surviving managers. Surviving the weekly cut line is everything!💬 JOIN OUR COMMUNITY & SUBMIT YOUR TEAM:Want us to review your roster on next week's episode? Shoot us an email or a Twitter DM with a screenshot of your lineup, your remaining FAAB, and your league's budget landscape. Drop your thoughts on our new format in the comments below, and please hit the buttons that give us that dopamine!#GuillotineLeagues #FantasyFootball #GuillotineStrategy #ChoppedFantasy #FantasyFootballAdvice #FAABStrategy #StartSit #TuckerKraft #FantasyFootballRankings

  4. Oct 19

    Survive the Chop: Guillotine League Waiver Wire & FAAB Guide for Week 7!

    Welcome back to the Don't Get Last Guillotine and Chopped Fantasy Football Podcast! We go over your complete Week 7 waiver wire blueprint, giving actionable dollar-by-dollar FAAB valuations (out of $1,000) for every fantasy-relevant NFL player across all 32 teams.First, we detail the 3 Golden Rules of FAAB Management, highlight upcoming bye-week minefields (Bills, Jags, Chargers, Commanders on bye this week; Texans, Saints, Giants, Niners in Week 8), and answer listener mailbag questions—including how to value quarterbacks in 2QB/Superflex formats and historical win-rate data from ChopFantasyFootball.com proving why early budget-hoarders dominate championships.Then, we dive into a full game-by-game breakdown of every Week 6 contest, plus post-bye valuations for the Bengals, Lions, Dolphins, and Vikings!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📌 EPISODE BREAKDOWN & CHAPTERS (1:19:00)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Intro & The 3 Golden Rules of FAAB Strategy02:15 - Bye Week Planning: Weeks 7, 8, 9 & 10 Roadmap05:10 - Mailbag: How to Value Quarterbacks in 2QB & Superflex Formats09:40 - Data Deep Dive: Historical FAAB Win Rates (ChopFantasyFootball.com)15:30 - Seahawks vs. Broncos: Bo Nix, Zach Charbonnet Stash & JSN20:45 - Texans vs. Jaguars: CJ Stroud Value, Woody Marks & Post-Bye Jags Targets27:10 - Bears vs. Falcons: Luther Burden Breakout, Bijan & Drake London33:20 - Ravens vs. Browns: Fading Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers & Cleveland RBs39:40 - Titans vs. Colts: Jonathan Taylor Reality Check & Josh Downs Trade Plea44:15 - Jets vs. Patriots: Breece Hall Buy Window, Drake Maye & AJ Brown Return51:00 - Saints vs. Giants: Tyler Shough, Kendre Miller & Malik Nabers Fog56:30 - Panthers vs. Eagles: Jaylen Hurts Injury Fallout & Bryce Young / Chuba Surge1:02:15 - Steelers vs. Buccaneers: Bucky Irving Rebound & DK Metcalf / Bernard Stack1:06:40 - Cardinals vs. Rams: Puka Nacua, Kyren & Davante Adams Injury1:09:50 - Chargers vs. Chiefs: Kenneth Walker Workhorse Role & Fading the Chargers1:12:15 - Bills vs. Raiders: Josh Allen Floor, James Cook & Brock Bowers Value1:14:00 - Cowboys vs. Packers: Dak Volume, Javonte Williams & Green Bay RB Mess1:15:30 - Monday Night Football & Post-Bye Values: Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs), Bengals & Vikings1:17:40 - Chopped Bad Beat: The 92-Point Heartbreaker & Outro━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💡 KEY STRATEGIES & FAAB VALUES IN THIS EPISODE━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━• The Remaining FAAB Win-Rate Reality: Historical data shows managers who maintain 50-75%+ of their FAAB by Week 6-7 are up to 30% more likely to win their league outright, while teams with under 10% budget left are 50% less likely to survive the late season.• Key FAAB Dollar Tiers (Out of $1,000): - Top Workhorses: Jahmyr Gibbs (\$302–\$352), Kenneth Walker (\$252–\$302), Bijan Robinson (\$252–\$302), JSN (\$252–\$302), Ja'Marr Chase (\$252). - High-Floor Value Plays: Javonte Williams (\$152–\$182), Chuba Hubbard (\$152–\$182), Parker Washington (\$102 post-bye), AJ Brown (\$102–\$152).━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💀 WHAT IS GUILLOTINE / CHOPPED FANTASY FOOTBALL?━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━In a Guillotine league, there are no head-to-head records or traditional playoff brackets. Every single week, the lowest-scoring team across the entire league is instantly eliminated ("chopped"). The eliminated team’s complete roster is dumped onto waivers, triggering high-stakes Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) bidding wars among surviving managers. Surviving the weekly cut line is everything!💬 JOIN THE CONVERSATION:Who got chopped in your league this week? Are you bidding on Jahmyr Gibbs or holding your cash for November? Drop your questions and start/sit dilemmas below, and please hit the buttons that give Joe that serotonin!#GuillotineLeagues #FantasyFootball #FantasyWaiverWire #FAABStrategy #Week7Fantasy #ChoppedFantasy #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFLStats #DontGetLastPodcast #StartSit

  5. Oct 17

    Who To Start In Week 6 For Guillotine Fantasy Football! - S4E25

    Welcome back to the Don't Get Last Guillotine Fantasy Football Podcast! I'm joined by returning guest Akash Patel (@YZR_fantasy) to deliver your ultimate Week 6 survival guide, complete with game-by-game Start/Sit decisions, Scary Starts, Shocking Sits, and an all-new Guillotine Defense/Special Teams (DST) streaming masterclass.Before setting your lineups, we break down the Top 10 WORST FAAB bids of Week 6. Stick around until the end for Akos’s roster post-mortem autopsy (exploring the risk of holding too much FAAB in half-PPR formats) and an essential breakdown of how to play fantasy defenses in elimination leagues without spending a dime.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📌 EPISODE BREAKDOWN & CHAPTERS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Intro: Welcome Back, Akash Patel! (@YZR_fantasy)02:15 - Top 10 Worst FAAB Bids in Guillotine Fantasy Football Week 612:30 - Wide Receiver Starts And Sits For Guillotine Fantasy Football Week 622:00 - Tight End Starts And Sits For Guillotine Fantasy Football Week 630:00 - Quarterback Starts And Sits For Guillotine Fantasy Football Week 636:30 - Running Back Starts And Sits For Guillotine Fantasy Football Week 643:00 - Guillotine DST Strategy: Streaming Free Defenses Against Your Own QB!45:00 - Chopped Team Autopsy: Why Akash Got Eliminated (Half-PPR RB Theory)48:30 - Outro (Don't Get Last!)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💡 KEY START/SIT & STRATEGY TAKEAWAYS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━• Quarterback Landmines: Bench Jayden Daniels against the 49ers juggernaut defense and consider benching Patrick Mahomes in a run-heavy Chiefs game script. Target high-volume shootouts with Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Jameis Winston.• Running Back Floor Plays: Start MarShawn Lloyd vs. Dallas, Cam Skattebo vs. New Orleans, and smash start Rhamondre Stevenson against the Jets. Avoid Dameon Pierce against Carolina's sneaky run defense and fade the messy Chargers three-headed committee.• Wide Receiver Outlook: High-floor targets include Josh Downs (exploiting the middle of the Titans secondary), Khalil Shakir, and Jakobi Meyers. Fade all secondary Texans receivers (including newly acquired Marvin Harrison Jr.) until target volume stabilizes.• Guillotine Defense/Special Teams (DST) Hack: NEVER spend FAAB on defenses. Stream for free off waivers every week by targeting the defense playing against your own starting quarterback—it acts as natural insurance to protect your weekly scoring floor!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━🔗 GUEST LINKS & CONNECT━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━• Follow Akash Patel on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/YZR_fantasy• Host: Joe Harris (@DontGetLast)• Listen to the Don't Get Last Podcast on Spotify & Apple Podcasts!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💀 WHAT IS GUILLOTINE FANTASY FOOTBALL?━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━In a Guillotine league, there are no head-to-head records or traditional playoff matchups. Each week, the lowest-scoring team across the entire league is instantly eliminated ("chopped"). The eliminated team’s complete roster is dumped onto waivers, triggering high-stakes Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) bidding wars among surviving managers. Ceiling doesn't matter—surviving the weekly cut line is everything!💬 JOIN THE CONVERSATION:Who is your top start/sit dilemma for Week 6? Did someone in your league blow their budget on Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts? Drop your matchups in the comments below, call your grandma, and hit the subscribe button to help us grow!#GuillotineLeagues #FantasyFootball #Week6Fantasy #StartSit #GuillotineStrategy #ChoppedFantasy #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFLStats #DontGetLastPodcast #FantasyWaiverWire

  6. Oct 15

    Ultimate Guillotine Fantasy Football Midseason Strategy Guide

    Welcome to the Ultimate Guillotine Fantasy Football Mid-Season Strategy Guide! I get a little deeper than usual with the mathematical, economic, and tactical principles needed to transition from early-season survival to winning your league championship.Most managers make the fatal mistake of playing scared—blowing FAAB early just to crawl into Week 12, only to have zero purchasing power when super-teams form. In this 40-minute overview, I'll explain why your league is currently experiencing FAAB deflation (and why your remaining budget has effectively doubled in purchasing power), how to self-assess your roster using the "3 J's" framework, and 5 tactical rules to maximize your championship equity.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📌 EPISODE BREAKDOWN & CHAPTERS (40:00)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Intro: Mid-Season Pivot & Playing to Win the Championship01:30 - Economics 101: Understanding FAAB Deflation in Guillotine Leagues06:00 - The Remaining FAAB Metric: Why Your Dollars Have Doubled in Value10:00 - The "3 J's" Self-Assessment Framework: Diagnosing Your Roster13:00 - Roster Tier 1: The Juggernaut (Why You Must Stop Spending Money)17:00 - Roster Tier 2: Just A Team / JAT (Buying Groceries vs. Big Splurges)19:00 - Roster Tier 3: The JIFU Team (How to Rebuild from Zero FAAB & Win)21:00 - Risk Theory: Why Taking High-Floor Risks NOW is Statistically Safer24:00 - Why And How We Bid In Guillotine Fantasy Football25:00 - JJ Zachariason Data: How Much Do Early Weeks Actually Predict?30:00 - Tip #1: Schedule Mapping & The Post-Bye Value Boost31:40 - Tip #2: Correlation Stacking & Shadow "Head-to-Head" Game Theory34:10 - Tip #3: Weather Risk Floors & Avoiding Catastrophic Duds35:30 - Tip #4: The "Always Be Selling" Bench Strategy & Roster Construction37:45 - Tip #5 & Philosophy: Championship Equity vs. Crawling to Week 1239:00 - Listener Community Shoutout & Outro (Don't Get Last!)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━🧠 KEY CONCEPTS & STRATEGIES IN THIS EPISODE━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━• The FAAB Deflation Phenomenon: In sharp leagues, roughly 40-50% of the total starting FAAB has already evaporated through chops and early bids. That means remaining FAAB is twice as valuable per dollar today as it was in Week 1. Stop paying Week 1 prices for Week 6 players!• The "3 J's" Roster Audit: 1. Juggernaut: High-floor studs, 600+ FAAB, zero bench depth. Do NOT buy luxury players like Brock Bowers—let your cash appreciate. 2. J.A.T. (Just A Team): Average floor with 1-2 holes. Buy cheap "groceries" ($15-$25 fill-ins) instead of blowing your budget on elite names. 3. J.I.F.U. (Joe, I F***ed Up): Low projections, depleted FAAB. Exploit trading, target cheap volume on waivers, and lean into variance.• Tactical Bench Management: Run a lean bench! Hold only ONE versatile backup flex (preferably an RB). If a player isn't in your starting lineup, aggressively trade them for FAAB before their value depreciates.• Shadow Head-to-Head Matchups: When battling another cellar team on the cutline, match their key players (e.g., starting Joe Burrow against their Ja'Marr Chase) to cap their ceiling.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💀 WHAT IS GUILLOTINE / CHOPPED FANTASY FOOTBALL?━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━In a Guillotine league, there are no head-to-head records or traditional playoff brackets. Every single week, the lowest-scoring team across the entire league is instantly eliminated ("chopped"), and their entire roster is dumped onto waivers for remaining managers to bid on with FAAB. Surviving the weekly cut line is everything!💬 JOIN THE CONVERSATION:What percentage of FAAB is left in your league? Which of the "3 J's" describes your roster right now? Drop your questions and team dilemmas in the comments below, and please hit the buttons that give Joe that dopamine!#GuillotineLeagues #FantasyFootball #GuillotineStrategy #ChoppedFantasy #FantasyFootballStrategy #GameTheory #FAABStrategy #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFLStats #DontGetLastPodcast #StartSit

  7. Oct 12

    Survive the Chop: Guillotine League Waiver Wire & FAAB Guide for Week 6!

    Welcome back to the Don't Get Last Guillotine Fantasy Football Podcast! This week, we deliver your ultimate survival blueprint for Week 6 chopped waiver wires, breaking down exact dollar-amount FAAB valuations (out of $1,000) for every fantasy-relevant NFL player.First, we go through the 3 Golden Rules of FAAB Management, highlight why the "Chop Line" flattens between Weeks 4 and 7 (aim for 90+ points!), and reveal how to exploit the "Second-Best Player" waiver bidding strategy. Then, we dive into a comprehensive game-by-game breakdown—covering every team from the Week 5 slate, plus post-bye valuations for the Chiefs and Panthers!━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📌 EPISODE BREAKDOWN & CHAPTERS (58:00)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Intro & The 3 Golden Rules of FAAB Strategy01:45 - Bye Week Planning (Weeks 6–9) & Avoid the Vikings Trap!03:00 - The "Chop Line" Data: How Many Points Do You Need to Survive?06:20 - The "Second-Best Player" Waiver Bidding Strategy08:15 - Eagles vs. Jaguars: Buying Back on Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith & Parker Washington13:40 - Bears vs. Packers: Roschon Johnson Value & The Green Bay Backfield19:10 - Texans vs. Titans: Nico Collins, Woody Marks & Fading Carnell Tate24:30 - Bengals vs. Dolphins: Chase Brown Buy-Low & Ollie Gordon's True Worth29:20 - Raiders vs. Patriots: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty & Rhamondre Stevenson34:00 - Vikings vs. Saints: Jordan Addison Bye Discount & Chris Olave37:45 - Browns vs. Jets: Quinshon Judkins Value & Garrett Wilson41:30 - Colts vs. Steelers: Jonathan Taylor Realism & Jaylen Warren Bellcow Role45:15 - Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: Bucky Irving, Dak Prescott & Javonte Williams48:20 - Giants vs. Commanders: Cam Skattebo & Jayden Daniels Bye Stash50:40 - Broncos vs. Chargers & Lions vs. Cardinals: Amon-Ra & Trey McBride53:00 - 49ers vs. Seahawks: CMC, Emanuel Wilson & JSN54:20 - Ravens vs. Falcons: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers & Bijan Robinson55:30 - Post-Bye Bids: Panthers (Chuba Hubbard) & Chiefs (Kenneth Walker)56:45 - Bills vs. Rams Preview, Listener Victory Lap & Outro━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💡 KEY STRATEGIES & FAAB VALUES DISCUSSED━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━• The 90-Point Survival Rule: In Weeks 4 through 7, league cut lines flatten as bye weeks kick in. You do NOT need ceiling—you need a safe 90-to-100-point floor.• The "Second-Best Player" Hack: Instead of joining the league-wide bidding war on the marquee name (e.g., CeeDee Lamb), target the second-best player (e.g., Chris Olave or Devonta Smith) at a fraction of the cost.• Core FAAB Valuations (Out of $1,000): - Elite Difference Makers: Kenneth Walker (\$252–\$272), Brock Bowers (\$252), JSN (\$252), Bijan Robinson (\$252), Derrick Henry (\$202), Nico Collins (\$202), Christian McCaffrey (\$202). - High-Floor RB Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson (\$82–\$122), Jaylen Warren (\$122–\$162), Chase Brown (\$122–\$162 post-dud discount), Chuba Hubbard (\$102–\$132). - Sneaky Bye/Injury Fill-Ins: Emanuel Wilson (\$22–\$32), Ollie Gordon II (\$12–\$32), Roschon Johnson (\$3–\$12). - Wide Receivers: Parker Washington (\$152–\$182), Christian Watson (\$150+), Garrett Wilson (\$152–\$182).━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💀 WHAT IS GUILLOTINE / CHOPPED FANTASY FOOTBALL?━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━In a Guillotine league, there are no head-to-head matchups. Each week, the lowest-scoring team across the league is instantly eliminated ("chopped"), and their entire roster is dumped onto waivers for remaining managers to bid on with FAAB. Surviving the weekly cut line is everything!💬 JOIN THE CONVERSATION:Who got chopped in your league this week? Did you score a discount on post-bye Panthers or Chiefs? Drop your waiver targets and start/sit questions below, and please hit the buttons that give Joe that dopamine!#FantasyFootball #GuillotineLeagues #NFLFantasy #FantasyWaiverWire #FAABStrategy #Week6Fantasy #FantasyFootballAdvice #NFLStats #DontGetLastPodcast #StartSit

  8. Oct 8

    Guillotine/Chopped Fantasy Football Week 5 Start and Sit And Worst Bids Of Week 4!

    Welcome back to the Don't Get Last Chopped Fantasy Football Podcast! I'm joined by Kent Weyrauch (@KentWeyrauch) from Fantasy Football World and DraftAcxis.com to break down essential Week 5 Guillotine & Chopped survival strategy.First, I make Kent react to the wildest, most destructive FAAB bids from Week 4 waivers—in which at least 5 teams absolutely nuke their seasons.Then, we dive into full Start/Sit breakdowns across Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, Quarterbacks, and Running Backs, highlighting must-start high-floor plays, deep waiver streamers, and dangerous trap matchups to make sure your roster stays above the cut line. Finally, Kent walks through the post-mortem of his own recently chopped team to highlight the critical balance between holding FAAB and managing roster injuries.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━📌 EPISODE BREAKDOWN & CHAPTERS (1:15:17)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Intro: Welcome Kent Weyrauch (@KentWeyrauch)02:15 - Honorable Mention Worst Bids08:20 - Top 10 Worst FAAB Bids In Week 428:40 - Wide Receiver Starts: Keon Coleman Monday Night Miracle & Jameson Williams34:15 - Wide Receiver Sits: DK Metcalf vs. Indy & Non-Trey Harris Chargers37:45 - WR Scary Starts & Shocking Sits: Dontayvion Wicks, Kendrick Bourne & Tee Higgins43:10 - Tight End Starts & Sits: Isaiah Likely, Kenyan Sadiq Bounceback & Mayer Trap48:30 - TE Scary Start (Greg Dulcich) & Shocking Sit (Mark Andrews)51:00 - Quarterback Starts & Streamers: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford & Jacoby Brissett54:20 - Quarterback Sits & Trap Matchups: CJ Stroud, Tyler Shough & Kyler Murray57:45 - QB Scary Start: Jaylen Daniels vs. Dallas Cowboys Defense1:00:15 - Running Back Starts: Bijan/Brian Robinson, David Montgomery & Ollie Gordon1:04:10 - RB Sits & Landmines: Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears & Saints Backfield1:07:30 - Deep RB Scary Starts: Austin Ekeler & Corey Kiner1:10:00 - Chopped Team Autopsy: Kent's Roster Breakdown & When to Spend vs. Save FAAB━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━🏈 KEY TOPICS & PLAYERS IN THIS EPISODE━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━• The Week 4 FAAB Disaster Reel: Why spending 50%+ of your starting budget on ANYONE (much less Justin Herbert and Thomas Fidone) guarantees a slow bleed to elimination.• Wide Receiver Outlook: Why Keon Coleman is a prime Monday Night target with D.J. Moore banged up; Parker Washington's target volume; why you must sit outside receivers against Indianapolis; and Kendrick Bourne as a sneaky deep play.• Tight End Navigation: Why Isaiah Likely and Kenyan Sadiq offer elite bounce-back floor, while Michael Mayer and Tucker Kraft run into brutal defensive funnel matchups.• Quarterback Streamers: Safe weekly floors from Aaron Rodgers, Jacoby Brissett, and Matthew Stafford; why you must bench Kyler Murray and Jaylen Hurts; and Jaylen Daniels as a high-upside Thursday night runner.• Running Back Survival: Handling the RB injury apocalypse with David Montgomery, Brian Robinson Jr., and Samaje Perine; avoiding Tony Pollard against Houston; and scraping the wire for Corey Kiner.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━🔗 GUEST & HOST LINKS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━• Follow Kent Weyrauch on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/KentWeyrauch• Check out Draft Axis: https://draftaxis.com• Listen to Fantasy Football World: https://ffworldshow.com• Host: Joe Harris (@Don'tGetLast)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━💀 WHAT IS GUILLOTINE / CHOPPED FANTASY FOOTBALL?━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━In a Guillotine (or Chopped) league, there are no head-to-head records or traditional playoff brackets. Every single week, the lowest-scoring team across the entire league is instantly eliminated ("chopped"). That team’s complete roster gets thrown onto waivers, triggering high-stakes Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) bidding wars among surviving managers. Ceiling doesn't matter—surviving the weekly cut line is everything!#FantasyFootball #GuillotineLeagues #ChoppedFantasy #NFLFantasy #FantasyFootballWeek5 #StartSit #WaiverWire #FAABStrategy #NFLStats #DontGetLastPodcast

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Welcome to the Don't Get Last Guillotine/Chopped/Knockout/Eliminator Fantasy Football Podcast! In Chopped leagues, there are no head-to-head records—the lowest-scoring team each week is instantly eliminated, and their roster hits waivers. We break down the game theory, economics, and weekly matchups we need to survive all 17 weeks and take home the championship. Tune in twice a week for dollar-by-dollar FAAB waiver guides, opponent-adjusted starts and sits, community roster reviews, and the worst bids across the Chopped landscape. Play smart, protect your budget, and Don't Get Last!

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