The 30-year mortgage went from 6.89% to 7.58% in three weeks. Everybody's blaming oil and the war in Iran — but oil dropped 4% the same day rates hit their high, and rates went up anyway. So something else is going on. This episode breaks down what's actually moving rates, why the Texas housing market is doing the opposite of what national headlines claim, and how to set up an AI project so you stop re-explaining your entire business every single morning. WHERE RATES ARE 30-Year Fixed Conventional — 7.58% 15-Year Fixed Conventional — 7.20% 30-Year FHA — 7.24% 30-Year VA — 7.25% 30-Year Jumbo — 7.60% Market averages per the Mortgage News Daily index as of 9/29/26. Not a quote. Highest the 30-year has been since April 2024. A year ago it was under 6.40%. The last cycle peak, back in late 2023, was around 7.8% — so we're close. WHY IT'S HAPPENING Mortgage rates are built off the 10-year Treasury, currently around 5.25%, plus a spread of roughly 2%. From late February to mid-September the 30-year rose 0.97 points and the 10-year rose 0.97 points — identical to the basis point. The government is borrowing enormous sums and has to pay more to attract lenders. Your mortgage rides on top of that. Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily said this week that oil can't explain the move. It's strong economic data, expectations of more strength, and Treasury supply pressure. And that "strong" data is AI and data centers — a handful of companies that make up about a third of the entire stock market. Real growth, just not growth that shows up in anyone's paycheck. TEXAS HOUSING — THE NATIONAL STORY ISN'T OUR STORY Texas closed sales have been running ahead of last year for months. The Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M says the first half of 2026 gained momentum. Meanwhile: • Statewide median around $343,000, about 0.4% below a year ago • Prices softening 13 consecutive months — flat with a slow leak, not a crash • Inventory around 5.5 months (4–5 is balanced) — buyer territory for the first time since before the pandemic • Typical seller price cut: about $12,000, roughly 3% off list • Homes selling in about 62 days, only two days slower than last year IS THIS 2008 AGAIN? Peak to trough in the last crisis, Dallas fell 10.5% and Austin fell 8.5%. Las Vegas fell 64%, Phoenix 56%, Miami 52%. Going in, Dallas was about 3% above fundamentals, Houston 5%, and Austin was actually undervalued. Texas never inflated, so there was nothing to give back. Boring lending laws and cheap land — still true today. BUYER TIP — THE PAYMENT ZILLOW SHOWS YOU IS WRONG Three reasons it's off in Texas: taxes pulled from the prior owner's bill (homestead exemptions and over-65 freezes don't transfer), an insurance estimate that's always low for a hail state, and mortgage insurance that depends on loan type, down payment and credit. Stack those and you're a few hundred a month off. Get pre-approved before falling in love with a house — and fully underwritten if the situation is complicated. SELLER TIP — A BETTER MOVE THAN CUTTING YOUR PRICE Cut $10,000 off a $400,000 house and the buyer's payment improves about $60 a month. It'd take that buyer almost 14 years of $60 to equal what you just handed over. Offer the same $10,000 as a closing cost credit instead — same money out of your pocket, but it lands the day the buyer actually needs it, and you keep your sale price for the appraisal and the comps. Seller credits are capped by loan type and down payment, so confirm the number with a lender before advertising it. MIKE'S MIND Hurricane Polo and a possible foot of rain. Abbott's diesel disaster declaration at $5.86 a gallon. Household income falling from 78 ounces of gold in 1990 to 19 today. A record $32,461 for a three-year-old used car. Rent, oddly, behaving itself. The bond market pricing four more hikes by June 2027. And core drilling starting at the Noah's Ark formation in eastern Turkey. AGENT TIP — TURN SHOWING FEEDBACK INTO EVIDENCE Sixty seconds after every showing, talk it into your phone's AI voice button. One agent saying the kitchen is dated is an opinion. Nine agents saying it is a number you can put in front of your seller. BUILD A PROJECT — THE MAIN EVENT Every major AI tool has this and most people scroll right past it. The six pieces: title, description, custom instructions, context documents, the SOP, and connectors. Plus the part that matters most — you don't write the procedure, you do the job with the AI open and then tell it to write down what you did. Walkthroughs for four setups: Listings, Buyers, Content, and your own business. THE BUYER PROJECT — FREE I built a project for Texas agents running a buyer through a transaction. TREC forms, the contract, timelines, deadlines, and email templates for every step. Message me and I'll send it your way. CHAPTERS 00:00 Rates jumped and it isn't oil 00:23 Welcome to the show 01:26 What's in this episode 02:30 Quick word 02:53 Rates: where we are 03:57 Why rates are climbing 05:16 How your mortgage rate gets built 07:48 Buyer tip: the payment Zillow won't tell you 08:25 Texas housing: not the frozen market you heard about 09:52 Is this 2008 again? 11:11 Seller tip: a better move than cutting price 12:50 Mike's Mind 17:14 Agent tip: turn showing feedback into proof 18:22 Build a project: the full walkthrough 28:16 Wrap SOURCES Mortgage News Daily · Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M · Texas REALTORS® · Fortune · Yahoo Finance CONNECT mikemillstx.com · mike@mikemillstx.com · 817-689-6079 YouTube: @mikemillstx Mike Mills, NMLS #756263 · GVC Mortgage, DBA Core Community Mortgage, NMLS #2334 · Equal Housing Lender. This is educational content, not a loan commitment or an offer to lend. Rates shown are market averages, not quotes.
