CFB Talks Digital Assets

CF Benchmarks
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CFB Talks Digital Assets is the home of informed conversation about crypto from CF Benchmarks. We are the first and leading digital asset index provider, authorized and regulated by the UK FCA. Respected and innovative financial institutions use our indices and reference rates to power regulated financial instruments, like listed derivatives, investment funds and structured products. Join CF Benchmarks’ Head of Content, Ken Odeluga, Head of Research, Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst, Mark Pilipczuk, as they talk with some of the most accomplished and influential figures in finance, about everything affecting digital assets — crypto protocols, markets, fund flows, on-chain metrics, macroeconomics and more.

  1. 5d ago

    Bond Vigilantes, Innovation Exemptions, & Fee Switches: Inside the CFB Q4 Outlook

    In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 1, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA for a discussion spanning macro, global rates and on-chain markets. BEA revisions to how it prices portfolio management, software and legal services helped pull August core PCE down to 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus, and October rate hike odds fell to roughly 35%. The UK 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% for the first time since 1998. Crypto kept rallying after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15. The team ties these threads to the central finding of the Q4 2026 Market Outlook, "Numbers Over Narrative." Since June 30, the ten highest-revenue tokens in the CF investable universe returned about 80% on average, against roughly 18% for the ten lowest. The Outlook is free at cfbenchmarks.com under Research and Insights. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 00:49 – August Core PCE: Softer Inflation or a New Ruler? 07:39 – October Rate Hike Odds Halve, December Still Priced In 09:46 – September Scorecard: The CF DeFi Composite Outruns the Broad Market 11:21 – Why Crypto Rallied Through a Failed Clarity Vote 19:20 – UK 30-Year Gilt Hits 6%: Fiscal Stress or Higher Real Yields? 23:20 – Interest Expense, Treasury Buybacks & the Intervention Question 28:51 – What to Watch: Peripheral Spreads, Auction Tails & the TGA 31:05 – Bond ETF Inflows, Pensions & the Coupon Case for Duration 36:15 – Q4 Outlook: Numbers Over Narrative 37:06 – Macro Backdrop: Thin Consumer Cushion & the Fed's Path 40:55 – Revenue to Be Rewarded: Fee Switches & Token Returns 43:30 – Tokenized Equities Scale Toward $3 Billion 46:43 – Beyond Crypto: Single Stock Perps & 24/7 Markets 48:18 – U.S. Perps Ahead: HIP-3, Retail vs. Institutions & Producer Hedging 52:14 – Bitcoin 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions Update 55:07 – Week Ahead: Jobs, FOMC Minutes, Senate Recess, ETF Flows & Treasury Auctions

    Bond Vigilantes, Innovation Exemptions, & Fee Switches: Inside the CFB Q4 Outlook

  2. Sep 24

    The Bitcoin Bottom Explained

    In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained." With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space 02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout 07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect 09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal 12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels 14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation 19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained 23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand 26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust 32:56 – Forward Returns & Regime-Flip Alpha 39:16 – Steelmanning the Bears: Is Another Leg Down Possible? 42:58 – M2 Growth, Correlations & the Decoupling Debate 46:19 – The Alligator Jaw: Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply 47:38 – AI Equity Rollover Risk 51:58 – Week Ahead: Key Things to Watch

    The Bitcoin Bottom Explained

  3. Sep 3

    Bitcoin's Breakout, The Fed's September Decision, & The New CME CF Indices

    In a CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 3, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, and CF Benchmarks Head of Product Thomas Erdosi. Fed rate hike odds for the September 16 meeting swung from roughly two-thirds to a coin flip inside 24 hours, after Governor Waller signaled support for holding steady and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks got read as more hawkish than intended. The panel works through what the data between now and the decision, NFP tomorrow and CPI on September 11, would need to show to settle the debate, then turns to Bitcoin's push through $80,000 on the broadest market breadth of the year. The back half covers the Middle East-driven oil spike and its interaction with the debasement trade, a sizable new Treasury buyback program, and closes with a first look at two new benchmarks: the CME CF Crypto Market Index and CME CF Emerging Crypto Index, plus the launch of the CF Benchmarks Oracle for on-chain price verification. Chapters: 00:00 – Disclaimer & Team Welcome 00:49 – September Rate Hike Odds Swing to a Coin Flip 03:09 – Base Case: Hold, With Oil as the Wildcard 05:41 – Warsh's Ambiguity and the FOMC's Historical Hiking Pattern 13:24 – Bitcoin's Push Above $80K 16:02 – Options Positioning Turns Less Lopsided to the Downside 17:23 – Key Levels: Eyeing a Push Toward $90K 18:40 – ETF Flows and MicroStrategy's Return to Buying 24:20 – CME vs. IBIT: Where the Call Buying Is Concentrated 28:06 – Tracking Vol With the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index 29:25 – Middle East Escalation and the Debasement Trade 34:07 – Germany's Fiscal Pivot and European Defense Spending 37:01 – Market Breadth: The Broadest Rally of the Year 39:08 – Getting Altcoin Exposure Beyond Bitcoin and Ether 40:14 – Inside the New CME CF Crypto Market and Emerging Crypto Indices 41:23 – Index Construction: Durability, Product Fit and Filters 46:02 – The CF Benchmarks Oracle Goes On-Chain 48:57 – Week Ahead: NFP, CPI, Fed Decision & Treasury Auctions

    Bitcoin's Breakout, The Fed's September Decision, & The New CME CF Indices

  4. Aug 27

    The Debasement Trade Returns, AI Rotation Takes Shape, and CFB Launches the GPU Rental Index

    In this CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 27, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, Senior Product Manager Cristian Isac and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, along with two guests: David Lawant, Head of Research at Anchorage Digital, and Pascal Hügli, Crypto Investment Manager at Maerki Baumann and author of the Less Noise, More Signal Substack. The debasement trade is back. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of the long end buyback program on August 19, Bitcoin led the response and gold barely moved. The panel works through what that repricing means for positioning: whether debasement is a trade or a secular regime, what the CME basis, options skew and breadth data say about where we sit in the cycle, why fund flows point to capital rotating out of AI and back into crypto, and what to expect as Jackson Hole convenes on financial innovation and payments. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Panel Welcome 04:29 – Defining the Debasement Trade: Henry VIII, Nero & a $40 Trillion Debt Load 06:13 – Buybacks, the TGA & Bessent's "Whatever It Takes" Signal 10:21 – Bitcoin Leads, Gold Lags: Trade or Secular Regime? 11:11 – Anatomy of an Oversold Market: Apathy, Bad News & a $1 Billion Volume Day 17:25 – Fund Flows: The DRAM ETF as an AI Rotation Proxy 20:21 – IBIT Volume, $2.5 Billion of Flows & Why This Tape Looks Different 22:22 – CME Basis Off Multi-Year Lows: Fast Money Moves First 24:50 – The Coinbase Premium & Waiting on the Broader Market 26:42 – Basis Trade Mechanics: Who Takes the Other Side? 30:40 – Forward Call Skew: Buying Upside Instead of Protection 33:39 – Inside the Market Cycle Engine: Breadth & Momentum 38:30 – Is It Durable? August's Rally Compared to May's 40:15 – Beyond Bitcoin: Hyperliquid Onshoring & the DeFi Revenue Complex 44:24 – Altcoin Catch-Up, CLARITY Act Odds & "Buyback as a Business Model" 48:11 – Week Ahead: Jackson Hole Turns to Payments & Financial Innovation 57:00 – Launching the CF Benchmarks GPU Rental Index 1:01:04 – Closing Remarks

    The Debasement Trade Returns, AI Rotation Takes Shape, and CFB Launches the GPU Rental Index

  5. Aug 20

    New on CME: CFB's Basket Indices, the Bessent Put, and Our Jackson Hole Preview

    In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 20, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, with CF Benchmarks CEO Sui Chung joining as a special guest for a landmark product announcement. The panel unveils two new benchmarks, the CME CF Crypto Market Index (CMI) and the CME CF Emerging Crypto Index (ECI), set to launch on August 31, before turning to a frenetic twenty-four hours in markets: a US Treasury long end buyback increase that failed to hold yields down for even one session, a sharp Bitcoin breakout past key resistance, and a first look at the July FOMC minutes ahead of next week's Jackson Hole symposium, where Kevin Warsh takes the podium. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:33 – Breaking: CME and CF Benchmarks Announce Two New Crypto Indices 03:15 – Why Build Both a Market Index and an Emerging Leaders Index? 08:47 – Inside CMI's Universe: From 1,000 Tokens to the Top 12 14:57 – Product Market Fit: The Rule That Sets CMI Apart 20:19 – Unveiling ECI: Crypto's Satellite Sleeve 26:29 – ECI by the Numbers: Fees, TVL, Users & the DeFi Leaders Behind Them 28:32 – Why Launch Now? Regulatory Clarity Meets Market Timing 31:27 – Treasury's $4 Billion Buyback Bet Meets the Bessent Put 35:47 – Deficits, Duration & Why Crypto Is Outperforming Big Tech 41:13 – Bitcoin's Breakout: Reflexivity and the Levels to Watch 48:55 – FOMC Minutes Recap: AI Inflation Chatter and a Balance Sheet Task Force 52:35 – Jackson Hole Preview: What Will Warsh Say? 1:01:30 – Week Ahead: PCE, Fund Flows, MSTR & the Treasury Auction Slate

    New on CME: CFB's Basket Indices, the Bessent Put, and Our Jackson Hole Preview

  6. Aug 13

    Our Read on Inflation, Clarity's Odds of Passage & DeFi's Revenue Era

    In this CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 13, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo for a roundtable covering markets, macro, and Fed policy, with a surprise appearance from Bitwise Research Analyst Ishmael Asad. Chapters:00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 02:46 – Strategy's STRC Preferred: Racing Back to Par 08:02 – ETH Treasury Preferreds, Issuance & the EIP That Could Lower Staking Rewards 11:35 – July CPI: A Setup for a Fed Pause? 16:43 – Bitcoin vs. Stocks vs. Gold: Who Wins on CPI Surprises? 19:52 – Oil, Iran & the Fed's Reaction Function 25:33 – 2022 Redux? Comparing Today's Labor Market to the Last Hiking Cycle 32:38 – Jackson Hole Preview: What to Expect From Chair Warsh 37:33 – Clarity Act: Reading the September Senate Vote 44:47 – DeFi's Revenue Era: Hyperliquid, Aave, Uniswap & Pump.fun 47:31 – Tokenized Equities: The Next 10x for RWAs 51:28 – The Return of Buybacks: DeFi's Value Accrual Thesis 54:25 – From Layer 1s to App Layer: Where Fees Actually Accrue 57:30 – Week Ahead: Jackson Hole, Clarity & ETF Flows

    Our Read on Inflation, Clarity's Odds of Passage & DeFi's Revenue Era

  7. Aug 6

    Signs of a Bitcoin Bottom, Vault Adoption & The Fed's September Meeting

    Has Bitcoin bottomed and what could determine its next move? Recorded live on August 6, 2026, this episode of CF Benchmarks X Space examines Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold and the Nasdaq, the growing adoption of on-chain asset-management vaults, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk; Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA; CF Benchmarks Senior Product Manager James Flamant; Head of Business Development Peter Stern; and special guest André Dragosch, PhD, Director and Head of Research for Europe at Bitwise. The panel begins with Bitcoin near $64,000, Brent crude below $80 and a softer-than-expected ADP employment report. They assess whether Bitcoin has formed a bottom, what market breadth and return dispersion suggest about the broader cycle, and which indicators they are watching next. The conversation then turns to on-chain asset-management vaults: how they work, where they sit on the adoption curve, and why curation, valuation and round-the-clock creation and redemption introduce risks that investors must understand. The episode closes with a discussion of oracle reliability, the safeguards needed for on-chain derivatives, and whether a September rate hike is now off the table. Chapters: 01:38 – Meet André Dragosch: Bitwise Europe's Research Chief 06:45 – Market Snapshot: Bitcoin at $64K, Brent Below $80 & a Soft ADP Print 08:34 – Has Bitcoin Bottomed? The Relative-Value Case vs Gold & the Nasdaq 13:32 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Market Breadth, Return Dispersion & a Still-Bearish Structure 17:41 – What Thomas Perfumo is Watching 23:00 – James Shares What's on His Watchlist 24:06 – A View From Sales: The Summer Lull & the Wealth-Platform Unlock 25:12 – On-Chain Asset Management: What a Vault Actually Is 28:26 – Curation, Valuation & 24/7 Create-Redeem: The Index Provider's View 34:58 – Where Vaults Sit on the Adoption Curve 44:01 – Oracle Robustness: The Weakest Link in On-Chain Derivatives 52:15 – Rapid Fire: Is a September Rate Hike Dead? 59:24 – Week Ahead: NFP, CPI, ETP Flows & CLARITY's Last Gasp 1:07:27 – Closing Remarks

    Signs of a Bitcoin Bottom, Vault Adoption & The Fed's September Meeting

  8. Jul 30

    Post-FOMC Debrief, Treasury Companies Under Pressure & CLARITY Stalls Again

    In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded July 30 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, and special guest Tyler Evans, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer of UTXO Management. Tyler is a career Bitcoiner. He co-founded BTC Inc, the publisher behind Bitcoin Magazine and The Bitcoin Conference, before launching UTXO Management, a Bitcoin-native asset manager focused on asymmetric opportunities across public and private markets. The Fed held for a fifth consecutive meeting with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a hike, the most unified dissent since 2016. The 30 year yield closed at its highest level since 2007. Q2 GDP came in at 1.5% against expectations near 2.1%. Strategy raised another $544 million of common equity without buying a single Bitcoin. And with the Senate's August recess days away, the CLARITY Act remains stuck behind an unresolved ethics provision. The panel works through what all of it means for Bitcoin, treasury companies, and the broader crypto market. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 04:02 – Grading Warsh's Second Press Conference 08:14 – Three Inflation Shocks & the Case for a Hold Through Year-End 12:52 – The Yen at 40-Year Lows & the Carry Trade Read-Across 14:24 – Is the Fed Losing Control of the Long End? 16:22 – Yield Curve Control: Playing Against the House 20:47 – GDP Misses at 1.5%: Soft Headline, Firmer Internals 23:08 – Best Case, Worst Case: Oil, Tariffs & the AI Capex Wobble 26:07 – The K-Shaped Economy & Why the US Is Insulated 28:42 – Dissent Contagion & Volatility Sequencing Across Assets 31:25 – Saylor on Defense: Cash Reserve, Dilution & STRC Buybacks 34:56 – Rebuilding mNAV: Aligning Equity Accretion With Bitcoin Per Share 37:32 – Stretch at $89: Betting Against Strategy Means Shorting Bitcoin 41:15 – Digital Asset Treasuries: Throwing Out the Baby With the Bathwater? 46:00 – Supply Concentration: Bitcoin vs ETH & Hyperliquid Treasuries 48:54 – Volatility Harvesting & the Coiled Bitcoin Spring 54:21 – CLARITY at the One Yard Line: UTXO's Bearish Base Case 56:58 – Week Ahead: Jobs, ECI, Strategy Earnings & the CLARITY Act

    Post-FOMC Debrief, Treasury Companies Under Pressure & CLARITY Stalls Again
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About

CFB Talks Digital Assets is the home of informed conversation about crypto from CF Benchmarks. We are the first and leading digital asset index provider, authorized and regulated by the UK FCA. Respected and innovative financial institutions use our indices and reference rates to power regulated financial instruments, like listed derivatives, investment funds and structured products. Join CF Benchmarks’ Head of Content, Ken Odeluga, Head of Research, Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst, Mark Pilipczuk, as they talk with some of the most accomplished and influential figures in finance, about everything affecting digital assets — crypto protocols, markets, fund flows, on-chain metrics, macroeconomics and more.

Information

  • Creator
    CF Benchmarks
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    76
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © CF Benchmarks 2024
  • Show Website
    CFB Talks Digital Assets