Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

Rob Moreno
  • 5.0 (7)
  • FANTASY SPORTS
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk. Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week. New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

  1. 5D AGO

    UFC Vegas 114 Betting Picks & Predictions: Emmett vs Vallejos | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 33

    The model is back this week with three confident plays heading into UFC Vegas 114. Rob breaks down the numbers on four fights — a rematch with a clear blueprint, two aging middleweights swinging for the fences, a sneaky-good co-main that deserves more attention, and a main event where the data says one thing and the odds say something else entirely. Official model bets: Piera Rodriguez, Eryk Anders (live dog), and Gillian Robertson. Plus, why laying -590 on anyone is almost always a mistake — and where the actual value lives in the Emmett/Vallejos main event if you're looking for action. Model sits at 22-10 on the year. The process holds. Let's find the edges. Follow Rob on all social medias: @TheRobbeo And check out the written breakdowns over at fightnumbers.substack.com Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 326 02:11 Analyzing the Rematch: Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes 05:23 Veteran Clash: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders 08:37 Co-Main Event Breakdown: Amanda Lemos vs. Jillian Robertson 11:53 Main Event Analysis: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos

    18 min

  2. MAR 4

    UFC 326 BMF Betting: Holloway vs Oliveira | Fighting With Numbers Ep. 32

    Rob, aka Bobby Knuckles, shares his deep dive into UFC 326, breaking down how his predictive model hits a 75% success rate — all while navigating the chaos of fight hype and emotional bets. You’ll discover why some fights are perfect for betting and others are better watched with your jaw on the floor. From Max Holloway’s durability to Charles Oliveira’s submission chaos, Rob reveals the numbers that shape this weekend's most intriguing matchups. This isn’t just about predictions — it’s about understanding the sport at a quantum level, turning insights into victory. If you’re tired of relying on hype or wish you had an unfair advantage, this episode is your roadmap to cleaner, smarter betting. Perfect for fight fans, sports bettors, and anyone hungry for the inside scoop on UFC analytics.Rob Moreno, known as Bobby Knuckles, is a UFC betting analyst and data scientist with a proven track record of predicting fight outcomes with precision. His insights are built on years of research, real bets, and a passion for fight sports. Tune in to get smarter, bet better, and enjoy every fight more than ever. Chapters 00:00 Welcome Back for UFC 326 02:43 Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Zhao: A Declining Champion? 05:59 Rodrigues vs. Ferreira: A Rematch of Violence 09:10 Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson: Mileage vs. Mileage 10:17 Main Event Breakdown: Holloway vs. Oliveira 11:08 BMF Breakdown: Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira Resources: Follow Rob on Twitter/X! Subscribe today to the Substack as well!

    19 min

  3. FEB 25

    UFC Mexico Betting Preview: Moreno vs Kavanagh | Fighting With Numbers

    The model stays hot after a 5–1 week, moving to 20–5 (80%) on the year, but UFC Mexico might be one of the lightest betting cards we’ve seen all season. In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, we break down four key fights from UFC Mexico, headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh, and explain why discipline matters more than ever on thin-value cards. We dive into: Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho (and why the data is distorted)Ailín Pérez vs Macy Chiasson (tight numbers, low confidence)Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green (a shocking spot?)Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh (main event caution flag) This week’s theme: protect the bankroll, don’t force action, and let the edges come to you. As always, the breakdowns are built around xR%, striking differentials, grappling control, and real matchup context — not hype. Follow Rob on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full write-ups on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on the First Strike podcast from VSiN (Also available on Youtube). Hot start or not — we bet smart, not loud. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Weekly Update 01:25 Preliminary Fights Analysis 09:23 Main Event Discussion and Predictions

    14 min

  4. FEB 18

    UFC Houston Betting Preview: Strickland vs Hernandez | Fighting With Numbers

    In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, Rob Moreno previews UFC Houston, discussing the card's matchups, analyzing fighters' statistics, and emphasizing the importance of betting discipline. He breaks down key fights, including the main event between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez, while addressing the challenges of limited data and the significance of strength of schedule in fight analysis. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC Houston Preview 02:43 Analyzing Early Fights on the Card 08:15 Diving into Key Matchups 10:36 Strength of Schedule and Its Impact 16:25 Main Event Breakdown: Strickland vs. Hernandez 20:41 Final Thoughts

    22 min

  5. FEB 4

    UFC Vegas 113 Betting Preview: Bautista vs Oliveira | Fighting with Numbers Ep. 29

    The model stays hot as we break down UFC Vegas 113, coming off a 4–1 week and a 10–3 start to the year (76.9%). With no title fights on the horizon for several weeks, this episode focuses on finding value in matchups, not names. We dive into three key fights on the card, including a potential live underdog, and explain why certain favorites are playable only as props or parlay pieces. Fights covered: Cong Wang vs Eduarda MouraJean Matsumoto vs Farid BasharatMario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira (main event deep dive) We also touch on the importance of discipline during hot streaks, and how to approach betting during this quieter stretch of the UFC calendar. As always, the breakdowns are stat-driven, conversational, and built around xR% and matchup context — not hype. Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full breakdowns on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on VSiN's UFC Betting podcast, First Strike. New episode out now — let the numbers do the work. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC Vegas 113 02:50 Analyzing the Fight: Cong Wang vs. Eduarda Moura 06:15 Breakdown of Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat 08:54 Main Event Analysis: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira 10:19 Betting Strategies and Insights 12:10 Conclusion with Model Betting Process

    18 min

  6. JAN 28

    UFC 325 Betting Predictions: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 | Fighting with Numbers

    In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment. Follow Bobby on all social media platforms: @TheRobbeo And make sure to subscribe here and on YouTube so you never miss an episode! Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card 01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy 04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence 09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

    15 min

  7. JAN 22

    UFC 324 Betting Preview: Gaethje vs Pimblett | Fighting with Numbers

    In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting. Follow me on social media! X: @TheRobbeo Instagram: @TheRobbeo TikTok: @TheRobbeo And make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card. FightNumbers.substack.com Chapters 00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast 03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson 05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis 08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong 12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet 18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

    20 min

  8. 12/11/2025

    UFC Vegas 112: Royvval vs Kape (One Last Event)

    It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape. After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.   In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes. Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.   Follow for more: 🐦 Twitter: @TheRobbeo 📸 Instagram: @TheRobbeo 📱 TikTok: @TheRobbeo 📝 Substack: FightNumbers.substack.com 🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.

    19 min
See All (40)

Trailer

5
out of 5
7 Ratings

About

Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk. Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week. New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.

Information

You Might Also Like