The Cosmopolicast

Claire Berlinski

Our occasional podcast with any guest who catches our attention, treating all topics of global interest--politics, science, art, literature, technology, history, and more. claireberlinski.substack.com

  1. Judith Levy phones in from Israel

    MAR 4

    Judith Levy phones in from Israel

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit claireberlinski.substack.com Judith Levy is a dear friend of mine who lives in Israel. Years ago, I wrote about our friendship in a book review, which you can read here: I met Judith Wrubel in 1991 at Oxford University, where we were both graduate students in international relations. We became friends walking back to Balliol College each week, along the leafy Banbury Road, from a seminar at St. Antony’s College on the international relations of the Middle East. Both secular American Jews—the only ones in the class—we found in one another a measure of intellectual and ethnic solidarity against our classmates, who tended to view the region through the prism fashionable in academia: The violence and misery of the Middle East devolve from Israeli territorial expansionism and its abuse of the Palestinians. Once when a suicide bombing in Israel claimed the lives of a number of children under the age of 10—it is often forgotten how common an occurrence these were even during the Rabin years—a fellow student, upon hearing the news, proclaimed with satisfaction, “Good. They deserve it.” … Babies and Bombers. Claire Berlinski on Still Life with Bombers: Israel in the Age of Terrorism by David Horovitz and Babe in Arms: Dispatches from an American Mother in Israel by Judith Wrubel Levy Some of you know her from our Middle East 101 discussions; others, from the articles she’s published here and her appearances on our podcasts. Some readers have kindly enquired about her well-being, so I thought they might appreciate hearing from her directly. She spent the day yesterday running in and out of bomb shelters. During one of those alerts, she gave me a call. This was the conversation that ensued. As you can hear, she’s fine, basically—but like me, worried.

    2 min
  2. The Ukraine and Iran Symposium

    MAR 3

    The Ukraine and Iran Symposium

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit claireberlinski.substack.com The symposium with Vladislav was a fantastic. But the video that resulted was, again, way longer than anyone could reasonably be expected to watch. It was longer, I think, than I can even upload. I’d been trying for 24 hours to upload an edited version, without success. The system only relented when I cut it down by another half hour. I just don’t have three more days keep editing this to perfection, and “perfection” would probably take me a few months, anyway, given my still-rudimentary video-editing skills. So I told the AI to edit it however it thought fit. It made some very odd creative choices. Its B-roll selections, in particular, are peculiar. (The lady sipping pineapple juice? The seat belt shot? Your guess is as good as mine. Good thing it will soon be in charge of our drones.) Midway through, it gives me zombie eyes. Maybe it was trying to compensate for the bad lighting? You’ll see. But it was so adorably proud of its choices that I couldn’t bring myself to criticize—and I didn’t have time, either. I decided that it was what it was, and I’d just put the whole thing up before the discussion was overtaken by events. From the transcript, nothing important was omitted, and that’s the main thing. Despite the juice-sipping lady, this is very much worth paying for. I wouldn’t say it if I didn’t mean it. I genuinely think this is a better-informed, higher-caliber discussion than you’ll find elsewhere, and if you want to understand the state of either war—and why they’re happening in the first place—this is an excellent place to start. Also, please subscribe because I’ve been working really hard. I’m doing my utmost to keep my readers well-informed—and in no way misled. I’d be very glad if you did:

    3 min
  3. An epochal bloodletting in Iran

    JAN 14

    An epochal bloodletting in Iran

    Here’s the promised conversation with Shay. It’s grim. For those of you who don’t listen to podcasts, a transcript is below. Updates * US withdrawing troops from key Middle East bases as precaution, American official says * Iranians arrive in Turkey through border gate as crackdown persists. The US issues a warning for citizens to evacuate Iran as protests intensify, with many Iranians seeking refuge in Turkey, crossing the Kapikoy border gate into Van Province. * Iranian Justice Minister labels “anyone in the streets” after January 8 a criminal as death toll mounts. According to HRANA, 18,434 arrests have been confirmed, along with 97 forced confessions and 1,134 people sustaining severe injuries. Pay attention to the Kurds: Armed Kurdish separatist groups have sought to cross the border into Iran from Iraq, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, in a sign of foreign entities potentially seeking to take advantage of instability after days of crackdown on protests against Tehran: The three sources, who included a senior Iranian official and who all spoke on condition of anonymity, said Turkey’s intelligence agency had warned the IRGC of the Kurdish fighters crossing the frontier in recent days. The Iranian official said the IRGC had clashed with the Kurdish fighters, who the official said sought to create instability and take advantage of the protests. Turkey will be highly averse to any kind of instability in Iran precisely because the scenario it most fears is the union of Iranian Kurds with Syria’s and its own. More: * Kurdish parties in Iran call for regime change as protests continue. As protests in Iran escalate, Kurdish opposition groups, including PDKI, PAK, and PJAK, call for regime change, despite ongoing violence and a deadly crackdown on demonstrators. * ★ ‘The system is in crisis’: Kurdish leader says Iran is nearing a Soviet-style break point. “What we are seeing in Iran is not simply an economic crisis. These are primarily symptoms of a deep political crisis,” said Yazdanpana. “The state, the political system, is in crisis.” … Yazdanpana said that Iran is suffering from a fundamental mismatch between the identity of the state and that of its population, drawing parallels to the crises that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and plunged Yugoslavia into war and genocide. Yugoslavia is the right parallel. This is a particularly interesting interview that will give you a sense of how dangerous this moment is for the region. Shay has been writing a lot about this over the past few weeks: US strikes on Iran must be covert and overt—and must happen soon: There are two misunderstandings about attacks on Iran. First, many of the usual suspects are giving briefings behind closed doors, warning that attacks could unite people behind the regime. This is nonsense. The current protests erupted only months after the Twelve-Day War with Israel in June. Then, the regime attempted to utilize the war to unify Iranians behind the state. For the first time, it erected statues of Iran’s pre-Islamic heroes, but the public unveilings featured more empty seats than people. The few messages my colleagues and I have received throughout the regime-imposed blackout during the protests have been unanimous: “We are doing everything we can, but we need foreign intervention to succeed. Get the US government to help us!” Foreign wars unite revolutionary regimes in their infancy, as the Iran-Iraq War did, but they weaken them domestically once they have lost popular legitimacy. Desert Storm led to a popular uprising in Southern Iraq. The second misconception is that cyberattacks suffice. Advocates view it through a military and logistical lens, rather than a political one. Cyberattacks are necessary to disrupt the regime’s command, control, and communications used for suppressing the protests. Cyberattacks might have sufficed when people were on the streets, to disrupt the crackdown, but the protests are subsiding after the regime reportedly killed 12,000 people, mostly in the first two nights of the riots. * Responsible Iranian opposition should offer Pahlavi conditional support, whatever his flaws. A constitutional monarch could keep the country together while Iranians establish institutions to allow civil society to take root/ * What will the Iranian clergy’s position be in a post-Islamic Republic future? A challenge to the regime by religious leaders could deliver the coup de grâce to the Islamic Republic * Eliminate Khamenei’s family members and top regime oppressors until Khamenei surrenders. Making the fall of the regime an inevitability that even Khamenei cannot deny is a difficult task * Have Iranians learned the lessons of economic failure under both the Ayatollahs and Shah? Iran needs a leader who not only curtails corruption but also challenges the Iranian society’s fantasies about itself. * Maduro’s fall removes an exile location for the Iranian elite should the Islamic Republic topple. Trump’s show of resolve in Venezuela should make Khamenei reluctant to push his luck too far with violence against Iran’s protesters * What does Iran’s use of Iraqis and Afghans to suppress protests mean? If Arab and Afghan proxies act with the brutality they showed in 2019, Iranian security forces will further turn on the regime. * Washington’s hands-off approach to the Iranian opposition is self-defeating. The Islamic Republic’s cruelty and commitment to staying in power against defenseless Iranians make foreign assistance necessary. In related news, it looks as if Syrian security forces are now slaughtering Kurds on behalf of the Turks: Two weeks of clashes in Aleppo led to devastation in Kurdish neighborhoods, formerly controlled by local Kurdish security forces for more than a decade. There had been calls to integrate the Kurdish forces, who are linked to the Syrian Democratic Forces, with the new Syrian security forces. However, after clashes resulted in the Kurdish forces being forced out of the Kurdish neighborhoods, Kurds were left fearing that the fate of Aleppo might lead to Damascus pressing its gains by attacking the SDF in eastern Syria. The Syrian transitional government had used various methods to clear the neighborhoods Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh of Kurdish security forces, as Syria surrounded and bombarded them. The government called for the civilians to evacuate and declared the area a closed military zone. After attempts at a ceasefire, many Kurds had to flee, and the remaining Kurdish fighters left for eastern Syria. … There are also concerns about how detainees are being treated by the Syrian authorities and about the desecration of the bodies of the fallen. “In a new atrocity in Sheikh Maqsoud, Damascus government militias executed a female member of the Internal Security forces in cold blood, proceeded to mutilate and abuse her body, and then discarded it by throwing it into the upper floors, a savage act that exposes their complete disregard for humanity and the laws of war,” the SDF said. … US Central Command had also put out a statement this week saying the US was closely monitoring developments in Aleppo. It is clear that there is intense concern now that the clashes in Aleppo may be a curtain raiser for more clashes in eastern Syria. Claire: Hey, this is Claire, and I’m here speaking with Shay Khatiri. I wanted to get his sense of what’s going on in Iran, and—well, what’s going on in Iran, Shay? Shay: So almost ten days ago, around the New Year, a bunch of shopkeepers in the bazaar began closing the shops and chanting anti-regime slogans because of the collapse of the Iranian currency, the rial. And it spread and kept growing for a few days until the son of the Shah, Reza Pahlavi, issued a statement for people to come to the streets and protest the regime on certain days and time. And then, in all 31 provinces, pretty much in every single city and town, millions came out and began protesting the regime. This follows a pattern that we have seen since 2017, exactly around the same time—so I remember I was at a New Year’s celebration party in 2017, going into 2018, protests were going on in Iran. That was the first major protest movement, anti-regime, since 2009. And since then, we’ve had, every two or three years, protests erupting. You had November 2019. Then you had the pandemic, which caused some delay in the two-year eruption. Instead you had 2022, three years later, the Mahsa Amini protests, and it went on for almost a year into 2023, halfway through 2023. And then two years later you had the protests come back again. Claire: Are the reports from Iran International that they’ve slaughtered 10,000 protestors credible? Shay: It is very difficult to assess whether the report is credible or not, but based on what I’m hearing—by the way, the report is between 12 to 20,000. mostly over two nights— Claire: They’ve elevated their estimate? Shay: Yeah. It’s a serious estimate. Between 12 to 20,000. Claire: So this is a Tiananmen-Square level massacre, if they’re correct. Shay: Tiananmen-Square level, but in a much smaller population. Iran is not a billion-people population. I do not know, and I don’t think anybody can assess, whether the numbers are accurate or not. However, based on videos uploaded online—and this is at a time when internet is mostly disconnected—we have verified 180 body bags. So, just keeping that in mind, based on people taking videos in different places and corpses that have been collected, it checks out for me that it would be at least 12,000, if not higher. And based on stories that I have heard from inside—I heard from one surgeon at a small private clinic in upper class Tehran. He said they brought in injured—and I emphasize, this is an upper class clinic, which has the best surgeons and best equipment, very skilled in saving life—he said they brought in

    40 min
  4. JAN 2

    Trump supports the Iranian protesters

    For a change—a big change—Donald Trump has said something that has me standing and applauding: I pray to God he means it. The Iranian people have yearned to hear those words for so very long. All hell is breaking loose in Iran as a result—so he’d better damned well mean it. Earlier today, Amit Segal wrote: … regimes fall because of guns and the people who hold them. In Iran, there’s more than one armed force—alongside the Revolutionary Guard stands the Iranian army. In Jerusalem, talk of a possible top-down coup has been growing. And if guns can’t be used on the protesters, perhaps someone else with guns could use them on someone other than the protesters. It’s impossible not to contrast this with the last American reaction to an Iranian protest movement—Barack Obama’s response during the Green Movement in 2009. Obama said he was “deeply troubled” by the violence but wanted to “avoid the United States being the issue inside Iran.” The regime understood his concern as a green light to crush the uprising. I don’t think Trump is as “deeply troubled” as Obama, but his statement is certainly more helpful. Still, the key question remains: Is Trump serious? I don’t know. But the last people who can afford to underestimate him are the Iranian leadership. The last time they didn’t take the president’s threat seriously, they ended up with smoking craters where their nuclear sites used to be. The second question may be even more consequential: Do the Iranian people believe him? Because if they do—if tonight a critical number take to the streets to test Trump’s commitment—then the guarantee of support may not even matter. I have no doubt they believe him. After Soleimani’s fortunate demise and the strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran is probably the only place in the world where people are persuaded Trump’s word is his bond. Voilà: The attached podcast is an edited version of a discussion the ME201 group had with Shay Khateri a few weeks ago. There are multiple people talking, so in places it’s hard to follow, but I think if you use the transcript it should be reasonably easy to figure out what’s going on. Here’s the article in The New York Times and the videos to which I refer at the beginning of the podcast: * Outdoor concerts? Uncovered hair? Shimmying in public? Is this Iran? Young people across Iran have been leading a dramatic change in social mores in recent months. “We have a fearless young generation that is breaking taboos.” This isn’t a good sign: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit claireberlinski.substack.com/subscribe

    44 min
  5. 11/23/2025

    THE INVISIBLE FRONT

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit claireberlinski.substack.com Alex Finley is a former officer of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, where she served in West Africa and Europe. She now lives in Brussels and writes, on Substack, about foreign influence operations: I’ve spent the last several years screaming from the rooftops about the corrosive effects of foreign influence operations on democratic societies. Now, I’ve decided to put all that information into a newsletter so that maybe you will start screaming from the rooftops, too. The more we understand how these influence operations tie into national security and corruption, the better we can arm ourselves against them. I thought it would be interesting to have her on the podcast to discuss what we’re seeing. How Russia captured a slice of the American mind America’s response to Trump’s so-called peace plan proves just how successful Russia’s influence operations in America have been. The KGB’s” active measures” system, refined in the late Soviet period and later adapted into the FSB/GRU playbook, rests on three principles: 1) Exploit existing divisions; don’t create fissures; widen them; 2) Use truth, half-truth, and lies interchangeably, whatever advances the psychological objective; 3) Obscure the source: The greatest triumph is when the target population spreads your messaging for you. Russian intelligence thinks in terms of cognitive openings: Any weakness—cultural, emotional, political, historical—becomes an entry point. America has a lot of entry points.

    2 min
  6. The Weak, with Josh Rosenberg

    11/09/2025

    The Weak, with Josh Rosenberg

    (Note: This is not Critical Conditions with Dan Perry. I just can’t figure out how to get rid of that logo.) Recently, I had an exchange with our subscriber Josh Rosenberg—who on Substack goes by the name Josh of Arc, and writes at Sic Semper Tyrannis—about the use of violence in resisting authoritarianism. You’ll remember his essay, Force and Freedom: Contemplating the Unthinkable, in which he argues that those opposing Trump have become dangerously alienated from the fundamental fact of political life: It rests upon force. Democrats may be capable of winning the most votes in the 2028 election, he writes. But this doesn’t mean they’ll retake the presidency, he continues, because they’re unprepared for Trump’s refusal to relinquish power: … Whether the GOP puts Donald Trump on the ballot as a final insult to the Constitution, nominates JD Vance, or props up another Medvedev-style supplicant, Trump’s power, freedom, and reputation will again be on the line. Do we really expect him to relinquish power peacefully? Will his rogues’ gallery of cabinet members, chosen above all for their servility, suddenly discover they are patriots willing to imperil themselves to defend the Constitution? Will other administration officials tell the truth now that Trump has signed executive orders targeting people like Chris Krebs—the DHS official who refused to fabricate evidence to support Trump’s election theft lies in 2020? He therefore offers the following advice: The opposition’s strategy should become two-fold. A peaceful resistance movement should organize aggressively, with a scrupulous commitment to non-violence. But concurrently, we must assemble a network of private militias to serve as an insurgency-in-waiting. Like any deterrent force, its purpose would be to ensure that it is never needed. And it’s mission would be to convince anyone in a position of public trust who might enable a full transition to an American dictatorship, that such a world would not be an oasis in which they would prosper, but a hellscape in which they’ll be hunted. I replied to this argument here in an essay titled Do Americans need an insurgency-in-waiting? Violence, non-violence, and getting rid of authoritarians. I am sympathetic to his moral point: I agree that if a usurper can’t be dislodged by peaceful and Constitutional means, force is permissible, and under some circumstances, morally obligatory. But I argue that we have by no means exhausted the peaceful means available to us. Not even close. Not even close to close. What’s more, if it’s true that we have a moral obligation to confront a usurper, it follows that we have an obligation to do so in the way that is most likely to be effective. The empirical evidence about this is surprisingly clear. Historically, those who employ disciplined non-violence are far more likely to succeed than those who use physical force—even when confronting the most brutal authoritarians. The benchmark study is Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict by Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan. Studying an aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006, they found that campaigns of nonviolent resistance were more than twice as likely to achieve their political goals. This was true even under even the most brutal and repressive regimes. The findings were neither subtle nor ambiguous: If you’re in any doubt about whether nonviolence is an effective way to confront a lawless regime, this should settle it. There is a reason for this. Nonviolent movements are generally viewed as legitimate, both domestically and internationally. This allows a nonviolent campaign to attract broad public support and participation. Violent campaigns tend to be repulsive to the public. It’s extremely hard to convince a significant number to take up arms against the regime, even if it’s justified. All experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. Because the public recoils from violence, violent campaigns rarely achieve the numbers required to overwhelm an authoritarian government. Instead, they discredit their cause and offer the tyrant a justification for armed counterattack. Nonviolent protest can, when sustained and focused, attract a very high level of public participation. It’s the rare regime that can ignore sustained civic disruption. The key to success, usually, is shifting the loyalty of core supporters, especially the military. But violent campaigns serve the opposite purpose, bonding the regime, its supporters, and the military together. What’s more, successful nonviolent movements are more likely to lead to stable, durable outcomes. Compared to regimes that emerge from violent conflict, democracies that emerge from non-violent campaigns are less likely to regress to civil war. This is a particularly interesting finding: It seems that once people acquire a taste for settling their differences violently, they never fully lose it. Violent insurgency, Chenoweth and Stephan conclude, is therefore rarely justifiable on strategic grounds, never mind the moral arguments. Whether confronting a democratic or an authoritarian regime, a nonviolent campaign is far more likely to yield desirable outcomes. Josh wrote another essay recently titled The Weak: Freedom’s Undertakers. He observes what he describes as a “collective malaise and paralysis among liberals in the West,” and suggests that this collective paralysis lies “at the heart of our present crisis.” Western liberal elites continue to demonstrate an almost congenital inability to resist identity-inflected guilt trips, moral blackmail, character assassination, and other weapons of the weak—often wielded by low-level staffers. It’s as if, sometime around 2014, the editors of Teen Vogue stormed every newsroom in America, said “Alright, if nobody resists, nobody will get hurt”, and everyone just immediately surrendered. Theories differ as to how this happened. But it appears that the introduction of viral social media combined with the already risk-averse, legalistic culture of many of these institutions produced a supernova of neuroticism, pettiness, and crippling fear. Leadership positions increasingly involved putting out (or avoiding) fires, minimizing negative publicity, and avoiding being sued. This tended to attract and produce risk-averse, rule-following bureaucrats who live in a perpetually defensive posture; small, unserious people consumed with trivialities. Is it any wonder that such “leaders” cannot recognize when defining moments arrive—when half measures must be abandoned in favor of giant historical leaps? Consider the spectacle of the last few DNC meetings: In the midst of budding fascism they begin events with land acknowledgements, and meticulously document their compliance with official party quotas on the number of people from each marginalized identity group who must be appointed to leadership positions. A party that regards itself as the last bulwark against fascism turns the selection of its leaders into farcical public group therapy sessions that confirm every negative stereotype about Democrats and “the Left.” Can dingbats like this who cower in the face of the gender identity lobby rise to the challenge of reversing a process of authoritarian consolidation that is now well past its preliminary stages? Can people who flinch at the prospect of enforcing their own immigration laws or keeping violent criminals off the streets really summon the resolve to compel other people’s children to fight and die? This, I believe, gets to the heart of the crisis of modern liberalism. It has no answer to the following question: What’s worth dying for? What does his argument entail? What it means is selecting certain rules that tie Democrat’s hands in their ability to fight back in defense of their most basic rights, and setting them aside. … While Congress reduces itself to a useless appendage and the six “conservatives” on the Supreme Court beclown themselves in order to sanction a ludicrous interpretation of executive power that would even make Aileen Cannon do a double take, Trump now largely governs around the Constitution by declaring phony national emergencies. The military is selectively redeployed to blue cities for domestic law enforcement purposes based on a so-called “crime emergency.” Trade policy is dictated from the oval office, upended on a whim, and altered in exchange for personal bribes that nobody is even bothering to conceal at this point—all predicated on the idea that it’s an “emergency.” The regime’s rationale for their ongoing unconstitutional crackdown on free speech—which they’re now escalating dramatically in the wake of the Kirk killing—is again justified on the basis of a so-called “national emergency.” There’s a name for this form of government, and it isn’t democracy—regardless of what the credulous Mr. Fetterman may believe. Remarkably—starting with the outrageous immunity decision—the six monarchists on the court have sanctioned this anti-constitutional farce, and in so doing, have unleashed a bloodthirsty predator on the nation, completely unbound by law and empowered to use the military, the FBI, and every other part of the federal government to pursue his revenge fantasies against domestic enemies—be they individuals, corporations, or entire states. The monarchist majority has over the last 18 months, in effect, cancelled the Constitution in service to Donald Trump’s will to power and told those seeking their relief that their rights no longer apply when they collide with his royal prerogatives. Under these extraordinary circumstances that the court has created, it is time for Democrats to reject the

    29 min
  7. 10/25/2025

    Hey, is that really Putin?

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit claireberlinski.substack.com Chris Alexander, whose Substack I recommend with the highest enthusiasm, joined the Canadian foreign service in 1991. He spent six years at the Canadian embassy in Moscow: He was the deputy head of mission during the first three years of Putin’s presidency. He’s also the former Canadian Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, a former Parliamentary Secretary for National Defense, a former Canadian Conservative MP, and the former Canadian Ambassador to Afghanistan and Deputy Head of UNAMA. You’ll remember him from our conversation about what went wrong in Afghanistan: For those of you who prefer audio-only, here’s a podcast version: This was another blockbuster conversation. I’ve annotated the transcript below with links, comments, and examples. Claire: Hi, this is Claire Berlinski, and you’re listening to the Cosmopolitan Globalist Podcast. And we have with us, again, Chris Alexander, former Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan—but much, much more. Chris, among other things, you spent much time when you were in the foreign service studying Russia. Why don’t you tell us a little bit about your background there? Chris: Sure. Thanks for the chance to chat again, Claire. First, I went to university—I studied history and political science. I had learned some languages, but actually, in university, I never studied Russia directly. I really didn’t want to take international relations, because even then, I thought a lot of what was being taught was dogmatic and not very interesting. And this was end of the Cold War period and then edging into End of History time—the fall of the Berlin Wall, and so forth, when you and I were together [at Balliol College], but my experience of Russia, my learning about Russia, my knowledge of Russia is that of a practitioner. I was there starting in 1993, learned Russian in the Canadian Foreign Service before going. Worked on the desk literally weeks after I joined the Department of External Affairs. There was the coup, attempted coup, against Gorbachev. People needed to watch CNN all night and stay in touch with our embassy for updates to ministers and so forth. That was the kind of thing I was doing from day one. So my life as a diplomat was totally swamped with Russia, post-Soviet dynamics, transition from the Soviet Union to Russia, and then from Soviet institutions to Russian institutions through that difficult period that gets forgotten in 1993, when Yeltsin shot up the White House. I saw a lot of that firsthand. And because I had learned Russian, I was talking to everyone in that period of 10 or 15 years when Russians would talk to us frankly, because they weren’t afraid of the KGB, which was gone, or Putin and his repressive machinery of government, which hadn’t yet been put in place. So it was a really interesting time. A time of insight, a time of building new relationships with Russians, a time of hope. But to be honest, I never had that much hope for what was happening in Russia in the 1990s. Moscow was a city awash in organized crime. Privatization had been done in the dirtiest of ways across the country—“Sale of the Century,” Chrystia Freeland’s book has that hard- hitting title. Standards of living were in free fall for Russians. And so this democratic moment, when they actually had the chance to vote, to choose different candidates, was associated with economic disaster in the minds of Russians—which as we now know set the stage for Putin, and set the stage for Russians actually to like his strong man, anti-democratic approach right from the beginning. There was hope, but it was false hope in the 90s. But there was a drama playing out that has come to affect us all, because even if we didn’t believe in the end of history, a lot of people believed Russia was out of a central role in history, actually, in the 90s. And they weren’t. I just looked at this photo of Putin with his KGB buddies, in 1999, I think, when he’s Prime Minister, about to become president—acting president. Just a couple of months after all the apartment buildings had blown up in Moscow and elsewhere in Russia, with their involvement, I would say. And they’re looking pleased as punch. On the march. They’re gonna get Russia back to where they needed it to be. And they didn’t go to war in Georgia or Ukraine for another 10, 14 years. But even then, they were plotting to build influence in our countries that would help them influence decision-making in European capitals and in Washington, and if they could, pull the rug out from under democracy in our countries, which they’re now trying to do. So they were out of history. They didn’t have a lot of formal, obvious influence in those years. But they never stopped having these grand ambitions, which are the Putin version of Marxism. They really think that if they engage in enough subversion, disinformation, enough political corruption, that the whole house of cards of US society, the US Constitution, will come crashing down. And similarly in France, Germany, the UK. And in the late 90s, early 2000s, you and I would’ve laughed at that idea. Now, we’re actually involved in trying to defend our institutions against an attack that has proven to be much more formidable than we ever imagined it could be. Claire: Yeah. I’d like to talk about—first, I want to talk about why you put “Putin” in quotation marks. Let’s just start with that. Whenever I cross-post one of your posts, my readers must be wondering, “Why does he always put Putin in quotation marks?” Chris: This is a hard issue to share with anyone because it’s a judgment that I’ve come to—I’m certainly not alone: Many Russians have come to this judgment. Many other Russia watchers have come to this conclusion. But it stems from my personal experience with Putin. In Canada, I think I’m one of the only people who actually spent quite a lot of time with Putin, speaking Russian to Putin, in person, both before he became Prime Minister and then as President. Claire: How many hours in total do you think you spent with him? Chris: I would say a couple of days. Like, in the same rooms, in the same talks. The longest time I ever spent with him was at the Kananaskis G8 Summit, 2002, just after 9/11, in Alberta—where the G7 just met again, but obviously without Putin, thankfully, replaced by Zelensky, in that case. And he was not involved in all the meetings because it was the G8, but there were still G7 meetings of leaders on financial and other issues in which Russia was not included. So he had downtime, hours of it, in fact, and he didn’t really want to talk to his own people, which was amazing. I think his real friends are that old crew from St. Petersburg, the KGB officers he came up with that have stayed with him. But they weren’t on that trip. This was the Foreign Ministry types, the G7 Sherpa types, G8 Sherpa types. He wasn’t interested in them. So we walked around in the forest in Kananaskis, literally for hours, talking about nothing in particular. I think he thought he was recruiting me; I was obviously squeezing him for everything I could. But he asked about, “Where are we on the map of Alberta? Where are the Indians, Chris?” he said, meaning First Nations. And I had to get a map and show him these things. Claire: So it was just the two of you? No translator? Chris: No, I was speaking Russian to him. Claire: Yeah. So just the two of you. Chris: Just the two of us. There were security people around. We weren’t alone, but we had long, meandering discussions about lots of things. And he sounded to me pretty dumb. Like he was asking very simple questions. Obviously, he’s not dumb. People later said to me, “Oh, he’s playing that way, Chris. That’s a KGB thing that they do.” I think the truth is somewhere in between. But suffice to say, from that occasion, from seeing him in talks and translating for our prime minister, Jean Chrétien, on a couple of occasions, doing this big Team Canada visit to Russia, where we played a hockey game, reenacting the 1972 Summit Series—which kind of influenced Putin to want to learn to play hockey, which he later did. We bonded in a way that few other international players did. Canada was there a lot. A few of us, as diplomats, were there a lot. We got to know each other in those early years. So I had a strong sense of his physical presence, how he talks, how he is in conversation. And fast forward to the pandemic—maybe even a little before the pandemic, but especially the pandemic, I haven’t seen Putin in person since 2014, when I was a Canadian minister at a commemoration of the Armenian genocide in Yerevan. So by Covid, he’s looking a bit different. He’s obviously older. Lots has happened, especially with their first invasion of Ukraine. But it becomes obvious to me that sometimes, when you see these videos and photographs that are put up by the Kremlin, it’s not Putin. It’s somebody else. And, sure enough, you start to see articles, including by authoritative journalists, saying, “The Kremlin is using a double. Maybe more than one. For security reasons.” Stalin did it. Other Russian leaders have done it. Gorbachev apparently did it. Castro did it, for security reasons and so forth. But in Putin’s case, there was an additional reason, because he seems to have been, of all world leaders, one of the most paranoid about infection, germs—Covid in particular.

    2 min

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Our occasional podcast with any guest who catches our attention, treating all topics of global interest--politics, science, art, literature, technology, history, and more. claireberlinski.substack.com

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