Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Ray Powell & Jim Carouso
  • 4.8 (34)
  • News Commentary
  • Updated Weekly

Chart the world's new strategic crossroads. Join co-hosts Ray Powell, a 35-year U.S. Air Force veteran and Director of the celebrated SeaLight maritime transparency project, and Jim Carouso, a senior U.S. diplomat and strategic advisor, for your essential weekly briefing on the Indo-Pacific. Drawing on decades of on-the-ground military and diplomatic experience, they deliver unparalleled insights into the forces shaping the 21st century. From the U.S.-China strategic competition to the flashpoints of the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, we cut through the noise with practical, practitioner-focused analysis. Each episode goes deep on the region's most critical geopolitical, economic and security issues. We bring you conversations with the leaders and experts shaping policy, featuring some of the world's most influential voices, including: Senior government officials and ambassadorsDefense secretaries, national security advisors and four-star military officersLegislators and top regional specialistsC-suite business leadersThis podcast is your indispensable resource for understanding the complexities of alliances and regional groupings like AUKUS, ASEAN and the Quad; the strategic shifts of major powers like the U.S., China, Japan and India; and emerging challenges from economic statecraft to regional security. If you are a foreign policy professional, business leader, scholar, or a citizen seeking to understand the dynamics of global power, this podcast provides the context you need. Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or your favorite platform. Produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media. Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, helping clients navigate the world’s most complex and dynamic markets.

  1. 2d ago

    Why Should We Care if the Pacific Islands Are Playing Both Sides? | with David Capie

    As Pacific Islands Forum leaders gathered in Palau, one of the last nations recognizing Taiwan, five members skipped sending their top leaders. Meanwhile, a June survey found New Zealanders now rate the United States a greater threat than China, to which our guest said warmth toward Washington had “fallen off a cliff.” Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by David Capie, Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, who explains why views of both great powers have shifted. Warmth toward China had eroded for years because of its actions toward the South China Sea, Hong Kong, and the Uyghurs, as well as its expanding Pacific presence since the 2022 Solomon Islands agreement. Then a PLA Navy task group circumnavigated Australia and conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, diverting commercial flights. Strategy documents are read by “foreign policy nerds,” Capie notes, but when flights carrying “grandma home to the Gold Coast” get rerouted, the public notices. What flipped the ranking was 18 months of U.S. policy, such as tariff whiplash, Greenland and Canada rhetoric, and USAID’s closure leaving perceptions of America “in the freezer” while Beijing now pitches itself as the responsible, predictable partner. He maps New Zealand’s foreign policy reset ahead of November’s election: leaning into Australia and Five Eyes partners, deeper security cooperation with Japan, new partnerships across Southeast Asia and a recalibrated India relationship. On the Cook Islands, Capie traces how Wellington’s relations with Rarotonga had soured over a China partnership agreed without adequate consultation, the aid pause that followed, and the new Declaration on Defence and Security, but then unpacks the surprise U.S.–New Zealand port project at Penrhyn and its link to seabed minerals. On the missing PIF leaders, his verdict is “a little from column A and a little from column B”. Chinese pressure is real, but so are local dynamics like the Solomon Islands no-confidence vote that pulled Prime Minister Wale back home. He warns against “always seeing strategic machinations where often there are local dynamics at play.” Australia’s Ocean of Peace Alliance with Fiji prompts hard questions about militarization and whether Canberra and Wellington praise PIF centrality while building a parallel architecture. That tension showed after China’s July 2026 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, its first ever into international open waters. Leaders spoke frankly, but no collective PIF statement emerged. Keeping China out of the Pacific Islands, Capie says, would be “a fool’s errand” – the real concern is its expanding security footprint. His challenge to Wellington, Canberra, and Washington: lift your game and treat transnational crime and climate change as priorities in their own right. Plus: pavlova, flat whites, and why David won’t perform a haka. Follow David Capie on X, @davidcapieFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

    Why Should We Care if the Pacific Islands Are Playing Both Sides? | with David Capie

  2. Aug 28

    Why Should We Care About a Couple of Average Guys Targeted by Beijing’s Propaganda Machine? | with Jay Tarriela and Ray Powell

    Could Scarborough Shoal become China’s next artificial-island outpost? Can transparency effectively counter gray-zone coercion at sea? Why did scholars from seven Chinese universities suddenly claim that Batanes, the Philippines’ northernmost and very much inhabited island province, belongs to China? And why has the Chinese embassy in Manila spent so much time attacking a Philippine Coast Guard officer, and one of our own podcast co-hosts, online? In this special crossover episode, the usual roles are reversed. Rear Admiral Jay Tarriela of the Philippine Coast Guard, a two-time Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? guest and a leading champion of Manila’s maritime transparency campaign, takes the host chair on his podcast, Just the Truth. Recorded in Manila, he puts Why Should We Care co-host Ray Powell in the guest seat. Jay and Ray examine what happens when China’s pressure at sea is paired with political warfare on land. They discuss the risk that Scarborough Shoal could become Beijing’s next fortified outpost, the sudden claims over Batanes as Chinese coast guard vessels push east of the First Island Chain, and whether publicly documenting water cannons, ramming, swarming, and other coercive acts changes China’s behavior, or at least builds the national resilience and international backing needed for a long-term resistance. They also explore why the Philippines has embraced transparency while many Southeast Asian neighbors still prefer quiet diplomacy, how independent journalists aboard Philippine Coast Guard ships have helped make maritime encounters impossible to ignore, and why the political contest over facts, images, and public opinion may be inseparable from the contest taking place on the water. Jay then lightens the mood with some of his favorite “mean tweets” about Ray: that he is an American propagandist, or secretly Jay’s CIA boss, or directing a half-billion-dollar U.S. government information operation against China… a windfall Ray’s wife would very much like to locate. It is a candid, sometimes irreverent conversation about territorial claims, information warfare, Philippine agency, and why Beijing appears so determined to discredit the people pointing cameras at its actions. Be sure to subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. Follow Rear Admiral Jay Tarriela at the West Philippine Sea Transparence Office on Facebook, on LinkedIn or on X, @jaytaryelaFollow “Just the Truth” on the Philippine Information Agency’s YouTube channelFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

    Why Should We Care About a Couple of Average Guys Targeted by Beijing’s Propaganda Machine? | with Jay Tarriela and Ray Powell

  3. Aug 21

    Why Should We Care if China Dominates Maritime East Asia? | with Brent Sadler

    If China controls maritime East Asia, what would that mean for Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, global trade, and U.S. security? In Episode 163, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso speak with retired U.S. Navy Captain Brent Sadler, a career submariner, former U.S. defense attaché in Malaysia, Heritage Foundation Senior Fellow and author of two books: U.S. Naval Power in the 21st Century and Naval Power in Action: Seizing the Initiative in the New Cold War with China. Sadler’s answer is blunt: China is exercising growing control over maritime East Asia, as Beijing has spent decades building the military, commercial, and political leverage to do exactly that. He says this is not just a question of aircraft carriers, missiles, and hull counts, but also about China’s strategic commercial footprint in ports, shipping and repair infrastructure, distant-water fishing fleets, maritime militia, and the China Coast Guard. Ray and Jim ask what it means that China’s coast guard vessels are operating east of Taiwan. Are these deployments preparation for a possible blockade? Why are fishing fleets moving in organized formations? And how could Beijing use gray-zone coercion to change the status quo before anyone agrees that a crisis has begun? The conversation also examines the recent China-Russia naval exercises and potential for submarine technology transfer, Russian pressure on Japan around the Kuril Islands, and Beijing’s efforts to turn even limited naval interactions with countries such as Indonesia into political and propaganda victories. Sadler explains why Southeast Asian leaders’ rhetoric must be weighed against what matters on the water: maritime rights, military exercises, commercial ties, and freedom of navigation. Finally, Sadler assesses the military balance approaching the much-discussed 2027 window of war concerns, China’s Taiwan contingency preparations, gaps in America’s carrier presence in the Indo-Pacific, U.S. shipbuilding deficits, the future of unmanned vessels, and what Ukraine’s drone war may mean for Taiwan and regional partners. Sadler’s larger warning is that maritime control is no longer just a contest of fleets, but a contest of coercion, commerce, access, and political will; one in which Beijing can test regional governments, reshape behavior below the threshold of war, and learn whether America and its allies will respond before temporary pressure becomes a permanent advantage. Follow Brent Sadler at the Heritage Foundation, on LinkedIn or on X, @brentdsadlerFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedInFollow Jim on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia

    Why Should We Care if China Dominates Maritime East Asia? | with Brent Sadler

  4. Aug 14

    Why Should We Care if China Just Fired a Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile into the South Pacific? | with Kathryn Paik

    On July 6, a Chinese submarine fired a nuclear-capable ballistic missile out of the South China Sea. It likely overflew parts of the Philippines before coming down in waters between Tuvalu, Nauru and Solomon Islands, inside the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone. The 14 Pacific Island countries in whose region it landed were almost entirely skipped in Beijing's notifications. A month later, when Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers met in Fiji, two of its members held up the response text. Kathryn Paik of the Center for Strategic and International Studies joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to explain what Beijing was signaling, and why the Pacific Island Countries couldn't answer with one voice. Paik wrote the first-ever U.S. Pacific Partnership Strategy at the National Security Council, following 23 years in the Marine Corps as a helicopter pilot and as a military attaché in Indonesia. In this episode: Why the missile's route mattered more than its range: launched from the South China Sea, overflying a U.S. treaty ally and landing in a declared nuclear-free zone hours after Australia signed its fourth-ever mutual defense treaty with Fiji. Paik's read: the message was that China "can militarily touch you anywhere it wants."How Nauru and Kiribati, two countries that recently switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, frustrated an 18-member consensus bloc. Jim presses the obvious counter — the U.S. and France tested here for decades — and Paik explains what makes this launch different.How sports became a national security instrument in a deal to put Papua New Guinea in Australia’s National Rugby League, and the commitment on security ties with Beijing that came attached.Australia's diplomatic surge: mutual defense treaties with PNG and Fiji, plus bespoke security pacts with Tuvalu, Nauru and Vanuatu.Why Kiribati patrols an ocean territory larger than India with a population of roughly 140,000, and what that means for fisheries, the seabed and undersea cables.Paik on why U.S. Pacific policy has always been somebody's side job: "In Australia they have 300 people in their Office of the Pacific. We have about a dozen." The 2025 damage to U.S. standing, including USAID's closure, tariffs and no resident ambassadors across the 14 Pacific Island countries. Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. Follow Kathryn Paik on LinkedIn or X, @KathrynPaikFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

    Why Should We Care if China Just Fired a Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile into the South Pacific? | with Kathryn Paik

  5. Aug 7

    Why Should We Care About if the Ocean Floor is Now a Battleground? | with Trent Fulcher

    Nearly all global internet traffic quietly moves through fiber-optic undersea cables on the seabed, yet most people still think of the internet as “the cloud.” In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Trent Fulcher, CEO of Starboard Maritime Intelligence, to explore what he calls “the end of the benign seabed.” Drawing on real cases, from a suspicious cable cut off Taiwan to fishing fleets and shadow tankers across key maritime chokepoints, Trent explains how vessels can mask their identities, spoof locations, and drag anchors over critical infrastructure while hiding behind flags of convenience. He breaks down why around 95% of internet traffic still relies on subsea cables, why repair delays can stretch to 45 days, and how new data fusion and behavioral analytics are shifting the industry from reactive incident response to proactive prevention. The conversation digs into who is most vulnerable (from Pacific Island states to cable-dependent hubs like New Zealand and Singapore), how governments and cable operators are building joint defenses, and what smaller Indo-Pacific nations can realistically do with limited navies and budgets. If you care about maritime security, great-power competition over Taiwan, or the future of the oceans, this episode will change how you think about the internet and the battle now being waged on the ocean floor. Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. Follow Trent Fulcher on LinkedIn Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

    Why Should We Care About if the Ocean Floor is Now a Battleground? | with Trent Fulcher

  6. Jul 31

    Why Should We Care if the Gray Zone War is Heating Up Again in East Asia?

    Days before ASEAN's foreign ministers landed in Manila, a Chinese Coast Guard sailor clubbed a Filipino sailor bloody at Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing normally lowers the temperature before diplomatic set pieces. This time it raised it, and nobody outside China knows whether that was a local commander improvising or a deliberate message. Co-host Ray Powell was in Manila for all of it, and this week he and Jim Carouso work through why the gray zone war across East Asia is heating up again and why it reaches well beyond a few contested reefs. The Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026, and this month hosted regional foreign ministers as well as China’s Wang Yi and America’s Marco Rubio. Ray and Jim work through why a quarter-century of Code of Conduct negotiations still lead nowhere: China's nine-dash line claim is maximalist; its 1996 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ratification carved out "historic rights" incompatible with UNCLOS itself; it rejected the UNCLOS-prescribed 2016 arbitration outright; and it profits from talks that never end, or from a code weak enough to push UNCLOS aside. Ray owns the “code-of-conduct pessimist” label and explains why. On the related political warfare front, Ray's new report traces how the CCP's United Front Work Department has captured Chinese-language education in the Philippines: teachers supplied through so-called "blood transfusion" and "blood generation" plans; Beijing-supplied materials; career pipelines into Chinese state firms; and how much if it homes back to Jinan University, whose Center for Philippine Studies-hosted symposium recently declared the Philippines’ northernmost islands to be China’s. Finally, the Bashi breakout: China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan along the Japan-Philippines EEZ boundary, radio challenges to inbound shipping and Beijing's boast of "inspecting" more than a hundred vessels. Ray's question: will we look back and say Taiwan's quarantine actually began here – not with an open declaration, but one incremental squeeze at a time, as more and more ship captains quietly decide that complying is cheaper than resisting? Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

    Why Should We Care if the Gray Zone War is Heating Up Again in East Asia?

  7. Jul 24

    Why Should We Care if China Won’t Restrain its Flood of Exports? | with Wendy Cutler

    China posted a record $1.2 trillion global trade surplus in 2025, and its export machine is still accelerating. From electric vehicles and batteries to electronics and household goods, Chinese products are pouring into markets across Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Consumers may welcome better products at lower prices, but what happens when local manufacturers cannot compete, workers lose their jobs, and countries become dependent on Beijing for essential goods? This week, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator who spent nearly three decades at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Wendy explains how government support allows Chinese companies to keep producing even when markets are saturated. Beijing rejects the idea that it has an overcapacity problem, and Wendy argues that negotiations cannot succeed when the two sides cannot even agree that a problem exists. Her solution is a coordinated response by the major economies receiving these exports. In this episode: How China’s industrial policies help its companies outlast foreign competitorsWhy U.S. tariffs redirected Chinese exports toward Europe and Southeast Asia instead of slowing them downHow cheap imports can destroy local businesses, eliminate jobs, and create dangerous dependenciesWhy the U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and Southeast Asia must act together to change Beijing’s calculationsHow China weaponizes its control of critical minerals, rare earths, and permanent magnetsWhy Washington’s tariffs against allies could undermine the coalition it needsHow developing economies can defend local industries without losing access to the Chinese marketWhether the fragile U.S.-China trade truce can survive as both sides test its limitsWhy today’s low prices could become tomorrow’s strategic vulnerabilitiesWendy’s candid reflections on three decades at the negotiating tableSubscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. Follow Wendy Cutler on at the Asia Society Policy Institute, on LinkedIn or on X, @wendyscutlerFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

    Why Should We Care if China Won’t Restrain its Flood of Exports? | with Wendy Cutler

  8. Jul 17

    Why Should We Care if China is Salami-Slicing Its Way Out of the First Island Chain? | with Brad Lendon

    For the first time, China's coast guard is asserting sovereignty over waters beyond the First Island Chain and out in the open Pacific, far to the east of Taiwan. To justify it, a hastily assembled group of Chinese academics has suddenly declared that the Philippines' northernmost (and very much inhabited) Batanes island province actually belongs to China. Is this a dangerous new escalation or just another day in East Asia’s highly contested maritime gray zone? This week, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso flip the script and put a reporter in the guest chair: Brad Lendon, CNN's Senior News Desk Reporter for Global Military Affairs, who's covered China's maritime rise for over a decade and authored the June 25 story that sparked this conversation, “‘Salami slicing’: How China is trying to increase control in the Pacific” Brad makes the case that this "salami slicing" is nothing new. Beijing has spent years applying steady, below-the-threshold pressure using white-hulled coast guard ships rather than navy gray-hulls. But now those ships are radio-challenging commercial vessels east of Taiwan, mapping the seabed and settling in for what looks like a permanent presence outside the First Island Chain. In this episode: Why coast guard "law enforcement" ships are a more insidious tool for asserting sovereignty than warshipsWhat China's radio challenges to commercial ships could be rehearsing, and Ray's "boa constrictor" warning about a soft quarantine of Taiwan already beginningHow the out-of-nowhere Batanes claim fits Beijing's long-game strategyWhether the Japan-Philippine maritime delimitation talks were a real trigger or just a convenient pretextWhat it all means for the U.S. defense strategy built around the First Island Chain, and whether it's the right tool for a non-military threatBrad's unforgettable story from the bridge of a Canadian frigate threading the Taiwan Strait at midnightA sharp, practitioner-level look at how the map of the Western Pacific is being quietly redrawn one slice at a time.Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing. Follow Brad Lendon’s reporting on CNN or on X, @BradLendonFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

    Why Should We Care if China is Salami-Slicing Its Way Out of the First Island Chain? | with Brad Lendon
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4.8
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About

Chart the world's new strategic crossroads. Join co-hosts Ray Powell, a 35-year U.S. Air Force veteran and Director of the celebrated SeaLight maritime transparency project, and Jim Carouso, a senior U.S. diplomat and strategic advisor, for your essential weekly briefing on the Indo-Pacific. Drawing on decades of on-the-ground military and diplomatic experience, they deliver unparalleled insights into the forces shaping the 21st century. From the U.S.-China strategic competition to the flashpoints of the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, we cut through the noise with practical, practitioner-focused analysis. Each episode goes deep on the region's most critical geopolitical, economic and security issues. We bring you conversations with the leaders and experts shaping policy, featuring some of the world's most influential voices, including: Senior government officials and ambassadorsDefense secretaries, national security advisors and four-star military officersLegislators and top regional specialistsC-suite business leadersThis podcast is your indispensable resource for understanding the complexities of alliances and regional groupings like AUKUS, ASEAN and the Quad; the strategic shifts of major powers like the U.S., China, Japan and India; and emerging challenges from economic statecraft to regional security. If you are a foreign policy professional, business leader, scholar, or a citizen seeking to understand the dynamics of global power, this podcast provides the context you need. Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or your favorite platform. Produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media. Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, helping clients navigate the world’s most complex and dynamic markets.

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