Brittany Brown and Mei Fong from Windfall Trust talk with Paul Fain about how the U.S. should be preparing for AI-driven job displacement. Windfall Trust is a policy research organization that runs scenario planning exercises to help governments and institutions prepare for AI—comparing the potential economic disruption to a natural disaster. Brown worked at the White House and the Pentagon during four presidential administrations. Fong is a former reporter who won a Pulitzer Prize for her work at The Wall Street Journal. Chapters 00:00 What Windfall Trust does: preparing for AI's economic disruption and making sure the benefits are broadly shared. 01:15 How prepared is the U.S.? The hurricane analogy: disasters hit hardest where systems are already broken. 03:40 How close is the tsunami? A "low hire, low fire" job market, hiring drops in exposed fields, and why current data misses it. 06:10 "The dam broke": The existential-risk debate, the either/or framing, and Mei's comparison to China's one-child policy. 09:10 Scenario planning, not prediction: Brittany on tabletop exercises at the Pentagon and White House, and the Russia–Ukraine example. 14:55 Inside a Windfall scenario exercise: 2028–2030 forecasts, a K-shaped economy, South Korea's chip windfall, and the U.S. tying health insurance and benefits to jobs. 16:55 Beyond unemployment numbers: Job quality, gig work, and who holds power and benefits from AI. 19:10 Getting everyone in the room: Technologists, economists, policymakers, and labor leaders, an 11-year-old's view of an AI documentary, and how similar D.C. and Silicon Valley turn out to be. 27:00 Has the Overton window shifted? Going beyond retraining: portable benefits, apprenticeships, incentives, and whether job training belongs in the solution. 32:55 Acting now: College costs and debt, states as policy testbeds, and whether support is framed as welfare or as something people are owed. 35:55 Trust in government: Findings from a 60+ country survey, including that most people would choose a job over a basic income. 37:55 Reasons for hope: The Great Society, the CDC's fight against malaria, and a window that's still open. 41:40 The data center backlash: Can grassroots opposition turn into a positive push on economic impacts? The "tip of the iceberg" idea. 45:05 How fast this needs to happen: Speed compared with past technology shifts, "no regrets" moves, and AI already affecting low-wage workers. 48:35 How to get involved: The midterms, AI in your own workplace, Flock cameras, and holding elected officials accountable. 51:05 Wrap-up: Meeting Brittany’s puppy, Beats. Mentioned in this episode Windfall Trust: Brittany Brown and Mei Fong from Windfall Trust talk with Paul Fain about how the U.S. should be preparing for AI-driven job displacement. Windfall Trust is a policy research organization that runs scenario planning exercises to help governments and institutions prepare for AI—comparing the potential economic disruption to a natural disaster. Brown worked at the White House and the Pentagon during four presidential administrations. Fong is a former reporter who won a Pulitzer Prize for her work at The Wall Street Journal. Chapters 00:00 What Windfall Trust does: preparing for AI's economic disruption and making sure the benefits are broadly shared. 01:15 How prepared is the U.S.? The hurricane analogy: disasters hit hardest where systems are already broken. 03:40 How close is the tsunami? A "low hire, low fire" job market, hiring drops in exposed fields, and why current data misses it. 06:10 "The dam broke": The existential-risk debate, the either/or framing, and Mei's comparison to China's one-child policy. 09:10 Scenario planning, not prediction: Brittany on tabletop exercises at the Pentagon and White House, and the Russia–Ukraine example. 14:55 Inside a Windfall scenario exercise: 2028–2030 forecasts, a K-shaped economy, South Korea's chip windfall, and the U.S. tying health insurance and benefits to jobs. 16:55 Beyond unemployment numbers: Job quality, gig work, and who holds power and benefits from AI. 19:10 Getting everyone in the room: Technologists, economists, policymakers, and labor leaders, an 11-year-old's view of an AI documentary, and how similar D.C. and Silicon Valley turn out to be. 27:00 Has the Overton window shifted? Going beyond retraining: portable benefits, apprenticeships, incentives, and whether job training belongs in the solution. 32:55 Acting now: College costs and debt, states as policy testbeds, and whether support is framed as welfare or as something people are owed. 35:55 Trust in government: Findings from a 60+ country survey, including that most people would choose a job over a basic income. 37:55 Reasons for hope: The Great Society, the CDC's fight against malaria, and a window that's still open. 41:40 The data center backlash: Can grassroots opposition turn into a positive push on economic impacts? The "tip of the iceberg" idea. 45:05 How fast this needs to happen: Speed compared with past technology shifts, "no regrets" moves, and AI already affecting low-wage workers. 48:35 How to get involved: The midterms, AI in your own workplace, Flock cameras, and holding elected officials accountable. 51:05 Wrap-up: Meeting Brittany’s puppy, Beats. Mentioned in this episode Windfall Trust: https://windfalltrust.org/ Policy atlas: https://windfalltrust.org/policy-atlas Scenario exercises: https://windfalltrust.org/scenarios Survey results: https://windfalltrust.org/global-dialogues-survey Stanford data: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publications/canaries-in-the-coal-mine Apollo on wages: https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/ai-lowers-wages-but-doesnt-cut-jobs Mei Fong’s book: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/one-child-policy-ends-new-book-examines-chinas-most-radical-n462401 Gina Raimondo interview: https://thecontextwindowpodcast.substack.com/p/gina-raimondo-on-what-companies-owe NPR on The AI Doc: https://www.wwno.org/npr-news/2026-04-21/ai-doc-explores-promises-and-risks-of-rapidly-developing-artificial-intelligenc American Compass: https://americancompass.org/worker-power-in-the-age-of-ai/ About The Cusp This podcast explores how the U.S. should be preparing for potential AI-driven disruption to jobs. Host Paul Fain talks with top experts about how the U.S. education and workforce systems can be part of the solution, what sort of policies will be needed, and who should pay for all this. The Cusp is produced by Work Shift, an independent, nonprofit newsroom reporting on connections between education and work. Get The Job, Paul Fain's weekly newsletter: https://workshift.org/the-job/ All episodes: https://workshift.org/the-cusp/ Work Shift on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/workshiftnews
