51 Insights – What's next in digital asset, AI and business.

Marc Baumann
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We talk with digital asset, AI and technology leaders about what's next in finance and commerce. Subscribe to our newsletter & join 35k+ others:https://join.fiftyone.xyz/ www.51insights.xyz

  1. 7h ago

    189: "AI is the only focus"

    I spoke with a bank executive this week about where the attention is going. “AI is the only focus.” That captures the mood. Crypto is in a bear market. The excitement has moved elsewhere. But here’s one number that stopped me this week: 80 seconds. That’s how long it took some of the world’s biggest banks to settle a cross-border payment in the BIS Project Agorá test. But what settled wasn’t a stablecoin. It was tokenized central bank reserves and bank deposits. Here’s what matters, though: Banks aren’t chasing speed; they’re defending the deposit. When money settles in a stablecoin, it leaves the balance sheet, and deposits are what fund the lending business. A tokenized deposit is the same dollar, still on the bank’s books, now programmable. This week’s signals at a glance: * The world’s biggest banks settled cross-border payments in 80 seconds * BNY is moving $8.6 trillion of fund records on-chain * Ten European banks launched a blockchain they own * MoonPay put a crypto wallet inside ChatGPT and Claude And 15+ more signals below. One quick thing: last week, we launched the 51 Institutional Digital Asset Adoption Index. It ranks 103 financial institutions across eight capabilities using linked public evidence. If you want to see which banks are actually live—and which are still piloting—check it out at index.fiftyone.xyz. The 51 Signal (PRO) The settlement asset is bank money. Banks looked at stablecoins, saw the demand was real, and decided they would rather issue the settlement asset than rent it. A tokenized deposit keeps the money on the bank’s balance sheet, inside the regulatory perimeter, earning the float. A stablecoin hands all three to Circle or Tether. Stablecoins are not losing. They still dominate the application and consumer edge, where Visa, MoonPay and SoFi all shipped this week. But in the wholesale settlement stack, the fight is no longer whether to tokenize. It’s who owns the rails and whose liability settles on them. This week both answers pointed the same way: bank-issued money, on bank-governed infrastructure. 📍 Where the Clarity and Genius Agenda Stands Here is the state of play in Washington: * GENIUS Act (stablecoins): law, but behind schedule. Signed in 2025, it takes effect January 18, 2027. Regulators have issued proposed rules but missed their rulemaking deadlines, and none are final yet. Stablecoin supply still grew to about $308 billion. * Clarity Act (market structure): stuck on the one question crypto keeps dodging. The headline fight is ethics language on officials’ crypto ventures, where Tillis and Gallego found common ground. The real one is jurisdictional: whether a token is a security (SEC) or a commodity (CFTC) decides who supervises it, what it must disclose, and whether paying yield is even legal. Big banks are split, Goldman backs it while the Bank Policy Institute flags gaps on yield and developer liability, and Warren calls it “a giveaway” that should be “dead on arrival.” With the August 10 recess days away and no floor vote scheduled, Majority Leader Thune says it “almost certainly doesn’t have enough time.” This ad could belong to you. 🚀 Build credibility. Drive pipeline and revenue. We position you among 100,000+ digital asset decision-makers. Top Boardroom Reads & Data * Will Robinhood Chain Succeed Where Coinbase’s Base Stumbled? (Galaxy Research, July 30, 2026). * No Headstands Required: Applying Securities Laws to Vaults and Onchain Lending (Galaxy Research, July 29, 2026). When a DeFi vault becomes a security, and why the design details now decide. BNY put $8.6 trillion of fund records on-chain What happened: BNY, the world’s largest custodian, is building rails to move its transfer-agency business onto a single on-chain ledger. Transfer agency is the record of who owns which fund shares, and BNY’s book covers about $8.6 trillion across 7.6 million accounts. It will run the old and new systems in parallel at first. First clients include Baillie Gifford, for what BNY calls the first fully native UK-regulated tokenized fund, plus BlackRock and BNY’s own Dreyfus unit. “We think of BNY as modernizing a function that sits behind every single fund transaction by bringing the books and records onchain.”— Carolyn Weinberg, Chief Product and Innovation Officer at BNY, to CoinDesk 51 View: If ownership updates in real time, a fund share can settle in seconds instead of days, trade around the clock, and post as collateral the moment it changes hands. The custodian is rebuilding the foundation the whole industry stands on, and it keeps the client relationship while doing it. Ten European banks built their own blockchain What happened: Ten European institutions launched RL1, or Regulated Layer One, on July 28. It is a member-owned permissioned blockchain, structured as a European Cooperative Society in Luxembourg, where each founder holds an equal vote. The founders are ABN AMRO, DekaBank, DZ BANK, Natixis CIB, LBBW, Crédit Mutuel Alliance Fédérale, Cecabank, SC Ventures, Chartered Investment and Seturion. RL1 runs on infrastructure built by Frankfurt fintech SWIAT, which settled more than €700 million in production over three years before ownership passed to the cooperative. It targets tokenized bonds, collateral, settlement and central bank digital currency links, and is in talks with NatWest. “RL1 will serve as the connecting infrastructure for Europe’s digital financial market, enabling participating institutions to move from isolated tokenization initiatives to an integrated, liquid, and scalable capital market ecosystem.”— Henning Vollbehr, Managing Director of RL1 (formerly of SWIAT), in the launch release 51 View: The last decade of bank blockchains failed the same way: one bank builds a network, invites the others, and the others refuse to route their business through a competitor’s rails. RL1 solves the politics before the technology. No single member owns it, so no rival has to route through a competitor’s infrastructure. That is why the cooperative structure matters more than the chain. It is also a very European answer to a very American problem: rather than let a US stablecoin or a US consortium set the standard, the continent’s banks pooled their own. Go deeper with our PRO read: Tokenized deposits move to the center of settlement What happened: Two moves in one week put tokenized bank deposits, not stablecoins, at the center of institutional settlement. OpenAssets and Partior completed a proof-of-concept for 24/7 atomic delivery-versus-payment, using tokenized commercial bank money on Partior as the settlement asset that removes counterparty risk. Partior is backed by DBS, J.P. Morgan, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank and others. Separately, America’s largest banks are building a shared deposit-token network, with JPMorgan, Citi and Bank of America among them, targeting roughly 2027. “With Partior, we’ve shown how institutions can settle digital assets, stablecoins, and tokenized deposits together on existing infrastructure.”— Gabor Gurbacs, CEO of OpenAssets, in the announcement 51 View: A stablecoin and a tokenized deposit look identical on a screen. They are not the same thing. A stablecoin is a claim on a private issuer’s reserves. A tokenized deposit is the bank’s own money, backed by the bank, inside the banking system, covered by the rules that already govern it. This is why the banks stopped fighting stablecoins and started copying the format. They get the 24/7 rails without moving the money off their balance sheet or outside the regulatory perimeter. Morgan Stanley undercut the market on staked crypto What happened: Morgan Stanley Investment Management launched two exchange-traded products on July 28: the Morgan Stanley Ethereum Trust (MSSE) and the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL), both on NYSE Arca. Each charges a 0.14% sponsor fee, among the lowest in the market. Both stake a portion of their holdings and pass the staking rewards through to shareholders. The products follow the firm’s bitcoin trust and join a $14 billion ETP suite; MSIM manages about $2 trillion in assets under management or supervision. “The addition of MSSE and MSOL reflects the natural evolution of our product suite, which seeks to provide simplified access to digital assets.”— Ally Wallace, Global Head of ETFs at MSIM, in the announcement 51 View: Pricing tells you where a product sits on the maturity curve. When bitcoin ETFs launched, issuers charged what they could get away with. A 0.14% fee on a staked, multi-asset product means the price war has reached crypto. The staking twist matters as well. By passing staking rewards through to shareholders, Morgan Stanley turns a passive wrapper into a yield product and dares rivals to match it, because institutions want exposure that generates yield, not just price, and the industry is racing to package it cheaply. Read our PRO deep dive on MS: News Flashes Infrastructure and Markets * Provable Markets raised a Series B led by Charles Schwab, with DTCC joining as an investor; its Aurora securities-lending ATS has processed over $30 trillion in monthly order volume. Banking and Payments * Samsung SDS said it is in talks with Dunamu, operator of Korea’s largest exchange Upbit, to build stablecoin issuance and settlement infrastructure, disclosed on its Q2 earnings call. * Visa reported fiscal Q3 net revenue of $11.6 billion, up 14%, and said its stablecoin settlement pilot now runs across nine blockchains, with cumulative stablecoin settlement volume it pegs at a roughly $7 billion annualized pace. * SoFi reported about $134 million in crypto transaction revenue but only around $1.2 million net after transaction costs, and is enabling its new SoFiUSD stablecoin as a settlement option for commercial payments. Funds, Deals and Others * Ondo Finance is weighing an acquisition worth $250M to $500M,

  2. 3d ago

    "Europe's biggest problem is Europe", with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.51insights.xyz Hi, it’s Marc. ✌️ “And they fail to see that sometimes the madness is actually the method.” Germany is losing about 10,000 factory jobs a month. Most people call that an energy problem. My guest this week says that’s the wrong way to look at it. He thinks it’s the result of other countries’ trade policy, and Europe has no answer for it. His name is Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank. The day Trump won again, he wrote that the US would “go back a century or two” in how it runs its economy. Tariffs. The government acting like an investment bank. A new spheres-of-influence foreign policy he calls the “Donroe Doctrine.” He called all of it before it happened. His big idea is simple. Stop asking what GDP will be next year. Start asking what GDP is for. This isn’t a recap. It’s the playbook: the six best ideas from the conversation, the exact quotes, and what to do with each one. POLL: When you look at US policy chaos, what do you see? About Michael Every: Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank, where he analyses major financial and geopolitical developments for RaboResearch. Based in Asia for much of his career, he is one of the few sell-side strategists who reads tariffs, chip bans, sanctions, and stablecoins as a single toolkit of national power rather than separate policy files. He publishes daily and is active on X at @TheMichaelEvery. “Economic statecraft is when you look at every single tool that you have as part of a toolkit, which collectively can be used to gain national power in a zero sum international environment.” Why this matters: Every says we now get “three or four headlines” a day that each would have been the whole story five years ago. Europe is heading into its own trade war with China, and this China is stronger than the one Trump first took on. The Iran talks run on 60-day clocks that he thinks lead back to war. And the US has written its goals straight into its national security strategy: biggest economy, strongest military, energy dominance, AI dominance, factories back home. If your models treat these as separate stories, you’re reading the wrong map. This is the fix. 🎯 Jump to the best parts 00:00 Why the U.S. Entered the Iran Conflict00:46 Introduction01:28 Economic Policy vs. Economic Statecraft03:36 America's Grand Strategy05:48 Why Tariffs Are Back06:57 America, China & Europe08:35 The Iran Conflict Explained14:57 Taiwan & Semiconductor Geopolitics16:45 Europe's Biggest Strategic Weakness21:47 What Is GDP Actually For?22:59 Do Tariffs Really Work?24:56 Europe's Structural Crisis29:41 Why Michael Is Optimistic32:33 Is Free Trade Broken?35:59 Why Inequality Keeps Growing37:24 Lightning Round42:22 Where To Learn More Important Links * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-every-38983214 * RaboResearch: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every * X: https://x.com/TheMichaelEvery Watch or listen now: YouTube • Apple Podcasts This ad could belong to you. 🚀 Build credibility. Drive pipeline and revenue. We position you among 100,000+ digital asset decision-makers. Our biggest takeaways from this conversation 1. Ask what GDP is for This sounds academic. It isn’t. Economic policy is one person turning one dial for one goal. Statecraft is every dial at once, all pointed at national power. Miss the difference and a set of planned moves looks like chaos. “The question that you ask if you are using economic statecraft is what is GDP for? Not what is GDP going to be to 2.1. What is GDP for? If you’re not asking that question, you’re not doing economic statecraft.” * Policy is one tool for one job: tweak a tax, or raise rates to defend the currency. One dial. * Statecraft turns every dial at once, tax, money, budgets, currency, energy, defense, transport, all aimed at beating other countries. * His sharpest line: “confusion and bewilderment can actually be a deliberate policy.” Sometimes the market’s confusion is the goal, not an accident. What to do with this: when a headline looks irrational, ask which national-power goal it could serve before pricing it as noise. If you can’t find one, then it’s noise. Related reads:→ How the U.S. Weaponized the Dollar (And Stablecoins), with Eddie Fishman This ad could belong to you. 🚀 Build credibility. Drive pipeline and revenue. We position you among 100,000+ digital asset decision-makers. 2. America is going back a century Every wrote this the day Trump won again, and says he was the first on Wall Street to call it. The point isn’t that tariffs are new. It’s that the years without them were the odd ones out. “Fasten your seatbelt because the US is going to go back a century or two in terms of how it does things going forward.” * Tariffs are “as American as apple pie”: the only era without significant US tariffs was the last few decades.

    "Europe's biggest problem is Europe", with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank

  3. Jul 24

    188: BNY killing the weekend

    $250,000. Per violation. Per day. That’s the fine in the new Clarity Act draft for any exchange that keeps trading a token issued by a sitting federal official, the President included. The official himself has to hand the profits back. Trump agreed to it. On Monday I wrote that one clause decides crypto’s decade: the presidential ethics provision was the biggest thing standing between the bill and 60 votes. On Wednesday the Senate released a draft with that clause written in. By Thursday, Goldman’s CEO was publicly backing the bill: "I'm very supportive of moving the CLARITY Act forward, so we can get some market structure in place and start to move the innovation process along."— David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, to Politico enjoy this weeks issue! – Marc & the 51 team, This week’s signals at a glance: * Washington wrote crypto’s ethics clause * PayPal rebuffed $53 billion * Telegram puts a wallet in a billion pockets * BNY is killing the weekend * BlackRock, Coinbase, Fidelity and Strategy pledged $15M to prepare Bitcoin for quantum threats And 12+ more signals below. This ad could belong to you. 🚀 Build credibility. Drive pipeline and revenue. We position you among 100,000+ digital asset decision-makers. The 51 Signal The war on the weekend. Market hours are a leftover from the era when settlement meant moving paper between buildings in lower Manhattan. The paper is gone. The hours survived, because everything downstream, collateral calls, margin models, FX cutoffs, was built around them. Nobody wanted to break the convention alone. This week, six players broke it at once. BNY set a 2027 target for round-the-clock Treasury settlement. Kraken’s parent is taking its tokenized stocks, $37B traded so far, to Hong Kong. Arcus put 24/7 US stocks on Robinhood Chain. Bybit shipped its own version. Base is about to. OKX built its board pitch around 24/7 trading. The logic is simple. Money goes where it can move. Cash that sits still from Friday to Monday earns nothing and helps no one. Once the world’s biggest custodian stops taking weekends off, a closed market stops looking normal. It starts looking slow. Whoever runs markets while the NYSE sleeps sets the price when it wakes up. From our partner: Bron Wallet Institutions quietly moved away from private keys years ago. The infrastructure they use MPC security, full asset recovery, built-in duress protection — was never meant for retail. Copper founder Dmitry Tokarev built Bron to change that. Self-custody without the seed phrase risk. Recovery without trusting an exchange. Inheritance built in from day one. He walks through all of it on 51 Insights. Top Boardroom Reads & Data * Dollarisation and Monetary Control: What Lessons for the Rise of Stablecoins? (BIS, July 2026). * Who’s Afraid of Chinese Models? (Stratechery, July 2026). Thompson’s case that the answer to Chinese open models is American open models. * There’s One Way to Win the AI Race (Forbes, July 2026). Catalini on why the big labs are lobbying against the openness that would win. * Paradigm’s Comment Letter on the NCUA’s GENIUS Rulemaking (Paradigm, July 2026). Argues the yield ban overreaches GENIUS; reserve risk sits in the asset, not the ledger. * Stablecoins, Digital Payments, and the International Role of the U.S. Dollar (Federal Reserve, July 2026). A Fed conference note highlights research finding dollar stablecoin volumes now past Bitcoin’s. * Ways to Think About Token Pricing (Benedict Evans, July 2026). Pegs inference gross margins at 40-50% and asks who keeps pricing power. Washington wrote crypto’s ethics clause What happened: Senate Republicans re-released the Clarity Act on July 22 with a new ethics section banning federal officials, the President and VP included, from issuing or sponsoring a digital asset for consideration. Officials would disgorge the profits plus a penalty; exchanges that knowingly keep listing a covered token face DOJ civil fines up to $250,000 per violation per day. Trump signed off on the language, which sunsets January 20, 2029. A day later, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon publicly backed the bill, breaking with the bank lobby. Ten Democratic votes are still needed. 51 View: For a year the bill’s problem wasn’t securities law. It was one man’s balance sheet. Democrats wouldn’t vote for market structure while the President ran a token business, and Republicans wouldn’t write a rule against their own President. Look at the sunset date: January 20, 2029, the day this presidency ends. That’s a ceasefire priced to one administration, and it only has to hold long enough to pass the bill. Two voting windows remain before recess. If it slips, the next real shot is 2028. We’d take better odds than the 43% prediction markets are giving it. The new dollar banks What happened: Augustus raised a $180M Series B at a $1B valuation on July 21, led by Tiger Global, with the founders of Nubank, Ramp, Circle and Deel participating. The four-year-old startup is building a clearing bank for the stablecoin era: direct dollar accounts for fintechs and banks in Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, moving money over Swift, ACH, SEPA and stablecoins. It won conditional OCC approval for a national bank charter in May and already processes billions for clients like Kraken. “We started Augustus with a simple thesis: the Dollar is the greatest product in the world but its distribution is fundamentally broken.”— Ferdinand Dabitz, CEO of Augustus, in the funding announcement 51 View: Since 2010, the OCC has approved eight brand-new national banks. Two of the newest were built for crypto. Erebor got its charter in February. Its deposits nearly quadrupled to $4B in one quarter, and it’s now raising at $8B. Augustus is worth $1B before its charter is even final. Here’s the interesting part: they don’t compete. Erebor banks American tech and crypto firms at home. Augustus sells dollar accounts to fintechs in the markets big banks walked away from. Correspondent banks spent a decade cutting those ties. Stablecoins proved the demand never left. Anyone can move dollars on a blockchain now. Almost nobody can clear them at the Fed. That’s the business both of them are really in. Telegram puts a wallet in a billion pockets What happened: Pavel Durov announced on July 21 that Telegram will embed a native, non-custodial Gram wallet in every Telegram app this summer, calling it the largest rollout of a non-custodial wallet in history. It targets Telegram’s 1B+ monthly users with instant, zero-fee transfers. Telegram hasn’t said how it will coexist with the custodial @wallet bot. Gram (rebranded from Toncoin in June) jumped about 7% on the news. 51 View: The biggest exchanges spent a decade and billions of dollars on user acquisition to reach roughly 100 million customers. Durov just scheduled a bigger rollout than all of them combined, as a software update. Most of those billion people will ignore it. But if 2% transact, that’s 20 million new self-custody users, more than most chains have onboarded in their lifetime. Distribution has always been crypto’s missing piece, and the fix may arrive as a default setting in a messaging app. Watch the regulators: a non-custodial default at this scale has no precedent to point at. BNY is killing the weekend What happened: BNY, the world’s largest custodian bank, is pushing toward 24/7 US Treasury settlement with a 2027 target. In a letter to clients signed by four senior executives, the bank described its ambition for an “always-on” Treasury market, after an after-hours test that moved Treasury collateral using Ripple’s RLUSD and OpenEden’s USDO reserves. It plans tokenized Treasuries on blockchain rails by end-2026. 51 View: The weekend is a settlement convention, and conventions die when the biggest player stops observing them. Stablecoins move 24/7 while the reserves behind them settle on business days. That mismatch is where the risk actually lives, and BNY is the first tier-1 custodian to tackle this challenge. Be Smart: Ask your custodian what its weekend plan for collateral is. If the answer is “Monday,” you’re pricing risk on a clock your counterparties may stop using soon. This ad could belong to you. 🚀 Build credibility. Drive pipeline and revenue. We position you among 100,000+ digital asset decision-makers. News Flash Infrastructure and Markets * Mubadala Capital put a private-markets fund on-chain via KAIO across Solana, Sui and Base, with Coinbase taking balance-sheet exposure. * HSBC became the first firm through Gate 2 of the Bank of England’s Digital Securities Sandbox, then signed an MOU with LSEG to deliver the UK’s first digital gilt by Q1 2027, the first blockchain-native sovereign debt from a G7 nation. * Kraken’s parent Payward is expanding xStocks to Hong Kong equities first, with UK and Korean listings to follow pending approvals, after $37B in lifetime tokenized volume. * BlackRock, Coinbase, Fidelity and Strategy pledged $15M to prepare Bitcoin for quantum threats, with roughly $460B sitting in exposed addresses. Regulation and Policy * The SEC settled the FOIA suit over Gensler’s deleted texts, paying $150K in legal fees, releasing two withheld Ethereum-investigation documents and reviewing its record-preservation practices. * US regulators missed the GENIUS Act’s one-year rulemaking deadline on July 18; a stack of proposals issued, none final, with the January 18, 2027 effective date unchanged. Banking and Payments * Bank of America named Sonali Theisen head of its global digital-assets platform, spanning tokenized deposits, stablecoins, settlement and custody. * Kakao signed an MOU with Circle to explore won-stablecoin payment infrastructure across Kakao Pay and KakaoBank. Funds, Deals and Others * Digital Asset added Shinhan and Standard Chartered’s SC Ventures to its oversubscribed $355M round

  4. Jul 23

    the $4 quadrillion switch

    “We are done with POCs, we’re done with experiments. This is about real world assets moving on real rails to make a real difference.” - Nadine Chakar Last week, July 15, DTCC processed the first live tokenized stock, ETF, and Treasury trades in its history. Not a sandbox. Real shares, real cash, inside the depository that holds $115 trillion in assets and settles four quadrillion dollars of securities a year. Weeks before that switch flipped, we sat down with the person who flipped it: Nadine Chakar, Global Head of DTCC Digital Assets. Joining her: Christian Schmid and Roy Choudhury, the BCG senior partners behind “The Future of Digital Assets in Finance”, the firm’s biggest digital asset report yet. Its core claim: this is an infrastructure transition, not an innovation theme, and up to 30% of bank profits are exposed by 2035. What follows isn’t a recap. It’s the operating picture: what actually went live, what scales first, and the moves BCG is telling bank boards to make now. 📊 Get the report we co-hosted this webinar around: BCG’s full 2026 flagship on digital assets, with the models behind the $88 trillion forecast. About the guests: Nadine Chakar runs DTCC Digital Assets. Before that she was CEO of Securrency (acquired by DTCC in 2023) and built State Street Digital after running State Street Global Markets, close to 30 years in capital markets plumbing. Roy Choudhury leads BCG’s capital markets practice in North America and has worked with the CFTC on US digital asset policy. Christian Schmid leads BCG’s global banking business from Zurich and has advised banks for 27 years. “It’s really like driving on the Autobahn and changing the wheels at the same time.” - Nadine Chakar Why this matters: The three things Nadine calls the “Holy Trinity” converged in eight months. * Infrastructure: DTCC, Nasdaq and NYSE all moved into tokenized securities. * Digital cash: stablecoins passed $300B and a coalition of major banks is launching a shared tokenized deposit platform. * Regulation: the SEC’s December no-action letter gave DTCC a three-year runway, on top of the GENIUS and Clarity Acts. That’s why 50+ firms, from BlackRock to JPMorgan to Citadel Securities, are now testing live trades ahead of the October launch. The ambiguity phase is over. 🚀 Build credibility. Drive pipeline and revenue. We produce institutional-grade research that positions you as the authority in your category, then distribute it to 100,000+ decision-makers. 🎯 Jump to the best parts 00:00 Will DTCC Tokenize $50 Trillion?01:00 Introduction02:37 Why DTCC Is Building New Market Rails04:25 Live Tokenization Starts07:30 Why This Isn't Another Pilot11:24 How Banks View Tokenization17:15 The Digital Asset Landscape Explained20:32 Where The Biggest Opportunities Are25:26 What's Stopping Adoption?32:31 Why Banks And Crypto Must Work Together37:33 BCG's $88 Trillion Prediction42:11 Why The Future Is Multi Chain48:18 Risk, Compliance & Smart Contracts52:13 How Small Banks Should Respond57:42 Lightning Round58:59 Final Thoughts Important Links * 📊 The BCG report: The Future of Digital Assets in Finance * Nadine Chakar: LinkedIn * Roy Choudhury: LinkedIn * Chris Schmid: LinkedIn * DTCC Digital Assets: dtcc.com/digital-assets * Our breakdown of the report: The $88 trillion question Watch or listen now: YouTube • Apple Podcasts 🔒 The full breakdown is for PRO subscribers. This time, thanks to BCG, it’s free. Our biggest takeaways from this conversation 1. This is an infrastructure transition, not a crypto bet. Chris has advised banks for 27 years. His frame for what’s happening isn’t the dot-com boom, it’s telecoms moving from circuit-switched to packet-switched networks: a full rebuild of the rails that took twenty-plus years and quietly decided who captured the profit pool. “There is no reason to get very nervous right now, but really a reason to do strategy and to think hard where to invest.” - Christian Schmid * BCG’s model: up to 15% of bank revenues and 30% of profits exposed by 2035 as money, assets, and settlement become programmable. * The pattern Chris has seen twice before (internet, neobanks): “we overestimate them in the short term, but we underestimate them in the long term.” * The open question isn’t direction. It’s speed, and “who is gonna pay in the end.” What to do with this: Stop asking “is tokenization real?” Ask: which of our revenue lines sit on rails that are being replaced? Related reads:→ BCG’s new digital asset playbook: the $88 trillion question 2. Atomic settlement is a downgrade. The crypto-native dream is instant, trade-by-trade settlement. The woman who runs the actual depository says the math doesn’t work, and the numbers she uses to prove it are the most clarifying in the whole conversation. “Just in the US market alone, there’s $115 trillion in assets, and we settle four quadrillion dollars worth of securities a year. I’ve had to Google how many zeros are in a quadrillion in order to wrap my head around that.” - Nadine Chakar “We are so efficient that we net 98% of our trades. So there’s not enough money on the planet that would allow us to take all that money and settle it in real time gross settlement.” - Nadine Chakar * Netting compresses 98% of gross obligations. Full atomic settlement would require pre-funding volumes that exceed available liquidity, globally. * DTCC’s design choice: digital and traditional shares share one CUSIP, so liquidity never fragments between the old rail and the new one. * The new rails supplement the old, they don’t replace them. “It took us fifty-five years to get to where we are today.” What to do with this: When a tokenization pitch promises atomic settlement as the headline benefit, ask what happens to netting. If there’s no answer, it’s a demo, not infrastructure. Related reads:→ Wall Street is tokenizing itself 3. Collateral is tokenization’s first super app. Forget retail tokenized stocks. All three guests, independently, pointed at the same unglamorous corner of finance as the place tokenization pays off first: collateral and repo. “The biggest super app right now for tokenization is around collateral. The ability of moving money at the speed of the network, to be able to pretty much mark to market in real time, that reduces a lot of capital, the cost of capital.” - Nadine Chakar * Trillions of dollars in derivatives margin move between counterparties every day; the US Treasury repo market alone runs above $1 trillion. * These are concentrated markets: “15 to 20 counterparties drive a huge amount of volume” (Roy). A handful of firms agreeing is enough to flip the whole market. * 24/7 markets change risk itself: a weekend crisis no longer means waiting until Monday to cover exposure. * Lightning-round verdict: asked what scales first, collateral/repo or fund distribution, Roy didn’t hesitate: collateral and repo. What to do with this: Track intraday repo and tokenized collateral volumes, not tokenized equity headlines. That’s where the adoption flywheel actually starts. Related reads:→ Inside JP Morgan’s $3T tokenization machine 📊 The full collateral and repo analysis is in the report. BCG breaks down the value case business line by business line. Download “The Future of Digital Assets in Finance” → 4. $88 trillion assumes just 16% penetration. BCG’s forecast is the most bullish we’ve tracked from any major consultancy. So I asked Chris directly how they got there. His answer was refreshingly unguarded. “You can truly debate whether this should be sixteen in ten years from now or whether it’s like eight percent. We don’t have a crystal ball. I would take it with a grain of salt. It’s not the absolute truth, but simply, 16%, it’s not unthinkable.” - Christian Schmid * The mechanics: 16% of roughly $300 trillion in real-world assets tokenized by 2035, with exponential growth toward the end, and penetration differentiated by asset class (bonds and commodities high, native tokenized equities low). * Today’s ladder runs a factor of ten per layer: crypto in the trillions, tokenized money around $300B, tokenized RWAs a rounding error against $300T. * Nadine’s counter is telling: “I’d be happy with a trillion in the next couple of years... if it’s seven, it’s eighty, it’s a hundred, it really doesn’t matter.” Momentum matters, the point estimate doesn’t. What to do with this: Don’t debate the number, use the scenario. If 16% happens, what does it do to your trading ROE, your NIM, your fund ops? That’s the exercise BCG is actually selling. Related reads:→ The $400 trillion migration, with Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo 5. The winners will be structural orchestrators. Every chain wants to be the standard. DTCC is refusing to pick one, and that refusal is the strategy. “The clients don’t care. So in the end, those institutions that can shield all this complexity from clients will actually win.” * DTCC is already live or building on Canton, Stellar, and Besu, with a harmonization layer on top so assets move between chains without fragmenting liquidity or data. * The hard problem isn’t settlement, it’s data: every chain treats data differently, and someone still has to process dividends, interest, and corporate actions on an Apple share trading across multiple chains. * Roy’s end state: a multi-chain world held together by shared standards, “not one chain that conquers it all.” What to do with this: In any digital asset strategy, separate the bet on chains (unknowable) from the bet on orchestration (structural). The second is where durable margin lives. Related reads:→ DTCC’s $20T October debut 6. Risk management is becoming code. The least discussed chapter of the report may be the most consequential for how banks are actually run: AML checks, transfer limits, and freeze authori

  5. Jul 17

    187: Wall Street flipped the switch

    Hey, it’s Marc & the 51 team, One number stopped me this week: $114 trillion. That’s what DTCC safeguards, and on Wednesday the backbone of US securities settlement ran its first live tokenized trades, in production, with real stocks, ETFs and Treasuries. More than 30 firms took part, and JPMorgan, BlackRock and Goldman were in the room. I wrote this week that the fat protocol thesis is dead. The 2016 idea was that blockchains would capture the value and the applications on top would stay thin. Ten years later the opposite happened: the protocols became commodities and the companies on top are capturing everything. This week’s signals at a glance: * DTCC went live on-chain * Stripe bid $53B for PayPal * Japan rewrote its rulebook * Circle got its bank And 10+ more signals below. The poll from last week: Top Boardroom Reads & Data * A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age (Demis Hassabis, July 2026). A FINRA-style body testing frontier models 30 days before release, proposed by the lab with the most to lose. * Tokenization: An Asset Management Perspective (Investment Company Institute, July 2026). The voice of $40T+ in registered funds is preparing for tokenization, not fighting it. * Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes (IMF Working Paper, 2026). The IMF quantifies how dollar stablecoins give citizens a frictionless exit from pegged currencies. * Q2 Stablecoin FX Benchmark (Borderless, July 2026). Stablecoin FX priced a median 3.2bps BELOW interbank across 260 corridors in Q2, minus 5.9bps by June. * How Vaults Can Shape the Capital Markets of Tomorrow (S&P Global Ratings, 2026). Onchain vaults as asset management without the asset manager, and what it takes to rate them. DTCC went live on-chain What happened: DTCC processed its first live production trades using tokenized versions of DTC-held stocks, ETFs and Treasuries, with 30+ firms participating, including JPMorgan, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and Vanguard. JPMorgan tokenized part of its Invesco QQQ holdings; workflows covered collateral pledging, securities lending, Treasury repo and settlement. The full service opens in October. 51 View: Every tokenized stock until now has been a workaround: offshore wrappers, synthetic exposure, someone else’s chain. These tokens are digital twins of DTC-held securities with the same protections, entitlements and ownership rights, issued by the utility that already clears the US market. That kills the fragmentation argument and turns DTCC from tokenization’s biggest obstacle into its biggest distributor. Price the October launch: if tokenized Treasuries move as collateral 24/7, the first casualty is not an exchange, it is the money market fund settlement cycle. Be Smart: One question for every tokenized equity product from here: does it settle at DTC or against it? Inside the perimeter inherits US market liquidity; outside it now competes with the utility itself. Stripe wants PayPal, all of it What happened: Stripe and Advent International made a $53B takeover offer for PayPal at $60.50 per share, a roughly 28% premium, backed by about $50B in committed financing. The bid follows an April approach; PayPal has not yet responded. Shares jumped 13%. 51 View: We wrote in April that Stripe wants to eat PayPal alive. The only thing new is the price. Look at what Stripe is actually buying: 430M+ consumer accounts, the button at millions of checkouts, and PYUSD to plug into Bridge’s issuance stack and Privy’s 75M wallets. Stripe spent three years building the money-creation layer. PayPal is the distribution it never had. It’s also defensive: in another buyer’s hands, that button is the one legacy asset that could be turned against Stripe. And the financing terms of a $53B bid carrying $50B of debt will tell you what banks really think stablecoin cash flows are worth. Be Smart: Watch the regulators, not the premium. One buyer concentrating Bridge and PYUSD (issued by Paxos) is new territory under the GENIUS Act, and how reviewers treat it will shape stablecoin M&A from here. 53 seats remaining 197 executives have already registered for our next webinar. Attendance is capped at 250, and registration will close once capacity is reached. I’ll be joined by the people advising banks on stablecoin strategy—and building the infrastructure those institutions will ultimately use. Designed for CEOs, board members, and senior leaders across banks, financial market infrastructures, asset managers, and custodians. 📅 23 July, 11am EST 🚨 Reserve your place before registration closes. Japan made crypto a financial product What happened: Japan’s parliament enacted the FIEA amendment on July 15, reclassifying crypto from a payment method into financial products under securities law. The new framework bans insider trading in digital assets, mandates issuer disclosures, raises maximum prison terms for illegal crypto businesses from 3 to 10 years, and paves the way for a planned flat 20% tax on crypto gains from 2028 (replacing rates up to 55%) plus spot bitcoin ETFs on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, targeted for 2027 or 2028. Two days earlier, MUFG-backed Progmat completed migrating ¥452B (about $2.7B) in security tokens, 64.6% of Japan’s issuance value, to a public Avalanche chain. 51 View: The tax cut gets the headlines. The reclassification is the event. Once crypto sits under the FIEA, the securities playbook applies: insider trading rules make it safe for institutions, disclosure makes it analyzable, and the ETF question becomes an implementation detail. Japan did in one law what the US is attempting across three bills and two agencies. Progmat moving to a public chain the same week is not a coincidence. Japan is now the cleanest place on earth to test a regulated on-chain capital market, and the 20% flat tax will pull volume home from Singapore and Dubai. Be Smart: The date that matters is 2028, when the flat tax lands. Until then, Japanese holders will sit on gains, so the volume wave is a 2028 story. Buy the buildout, wait for the flows. Circle got its bank What happened: Circle received final OCC approval on July 10 to open First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A., a federally chartered trust bank offering institutional digital asset custody, with USDC reserve management planned as a future capability. The second-largest stablecoin issuer is now under permanent federal supervision as GENIUS implementation approaches. 51 View: Conditional charters are press releases. Final charters are infrastructure. Circle now has what Tether cannot quickly get: a federal banking franchise behind a $60B+ stablecoin. Under GENIUS that compounds, because issuers get chosen on regulatory surface area, and “our issuer runs its own OCC-supervised national bank” is the strongest sentence in the industry. The open question is margin: a bank is expensive to run, and Circle is buying permanence with basis points just as distribution costs rise (Coinbase’s cut, and possibly a Stripe-owned PayPal pushing PYUSD). News Flashes Infrastructure and Markets * FalconX acquired bloXroute, folding low-latency blockchain connectivity into its $8B prime brokerage as tokenized assets move on-chain. * Securitize and Cantor Fitzgerald teamed up to let public companies run IPOs and follow-on offerings on-chain, with the token as the actual security rather than a wrapper. * Morgan Stanley’s E*TRADE launched spot crypto trading for retail clients via Zero Hash, starting with bitcoin, ether and solana. * SBI Group tapped Ondo Finance to tokenize Japanese stocks, settling in SBI’s regulated yen stablecoin JPYSC, one day after Japan’s new crypto law passed. Regulation and Policy * President Trump pressed the Senate to pass the Clarity Act before the August recess, framing inaction as handing digital assets and AI leadership to China. * The UK government unveiled a 54-firm tokenization taskforce including BlackRock, Goldman, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, targeting up to £33B in annual economic output by 2035. * The ECB selected 36 payment service providers to join its digital euro pilot, moving the project from procurement into pilot preparation, with operational testing targeted for 2027. Banking and Payments * Citi and Siam Commercial Bank switched on 24/7 USD clearing via Citi Token Services, giving Thailand’s oldest bank near real-time cross-border payments outside banking hours. * Tether froze $131M in USDT after OFAC sanctioned four wallets tied to Iran’s central bank, bringing frozen Iran-linked funds to roughly $475M. * Visa introduced a stablecoin platform letting banks and fintechs mint, hold and move Open USD (OUSD), with wallet-as-a-service infrastructure, now in beta with selected clients. Funds, Deals and Others * Velocity raised a $38M Series A led by Dragonfly and FirstMark to bring stablecoin treasury infrastructure to enterprises, with Coinbase Ventures, Ripple and Capital One Ventures joining. * Tether invested $20M in Argentine neobank Ualá, an 11M-customer platform, its fourth Latin America bet in recent months. * Morgan Stanley filed amended S-1s for its spot ether and solana ETFs, naming Coinbase as custodian and setting a market-low 0.14% fee. * Citadel Securities invested $400M in Crypto.com at a $20B valuation, the exchange’s first institutional round, months after backing Kraken at the same valuation. * T. Rowe Price debuted the industry’s first actively managed multi-token spot exchange-traded product. The AI Layer * Thinking Machines Lab released its first model, Inkling: an open-weight mixture-of-experts system with 975B total parameters (about 41B active), trained on 45 trillion tokens of text, image, audio and video, and positioned by Mira Murati’s lab as a starting point for customers to fine-tune rather than a leaderboard champion. * Demis Hassabis called for a US-led, FINRA-style AI standards body, industry-funded and testing frontier models up to 30 da

  6. Jul 14

    Most AI investors are backing the wrong layer, with Stephen Messer (Internet & AI Pioneer)

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.51insights.xyz Hi, it’s Marc. ✌️ “Nobody really wants to talk about the hedge that all the buildup of data centers is.” Stephen Messer thinks the trillion-dollar data center buildout makes sense even if the frontier labs never earn it back, because a stockpile of general-purpose GPUs is a strategic asset the day China moves on Taiwan. He puts it plainly: even at a 3% probability, those chips are “worth gold.” Nobody in the market is pricing the buildout that way. Stephen is worth listening to on calls like this. Last time he sat in that chair, he told us large language models would end up like web browsers: free, everywhere, and worthless as a moat. That’s roughly what happened. He invented affiliate marketing, sold LinkShare for $425 million, and has spent 18 years building Collective[i], an AI company that predicts economic outcomes instead of next words. He wrote up the pricing side of his argument as “Peak Token” on his blog, and jokes he’s been in witness protection from frontier-lab investors ever since. This one is a playbook, not a podcast: why token pricing power is collapsing, what the forward-deployed engineer push is really about, and the one question a CEO should ask before spending an AI budget. About Stephen Messer: Stephen is co-founder and vice chairman of Collective[i], one of the earliest AI companies (founded 2008), which trains models on pooled, proprietary transaction data to predict economic outcomes: which deals close, which buyers are real, what demand does next. Before that he co-founded LinkShare, effectively inventing affiliate marketing, and sold it to Rakuten for $425 million. He publishes two posts a week at reloadnyc.com. “If your gap and the premium you’re asking people to pay for a language model disappears in two weeks, but it took you a year to make, that is not the sign of a moat that is going to be defensible.” Why this matters: The enterprise revolt against token pricing went public last week. Palantir’s Alex Karp told CNBC that CEOs are “livid,” paying for “tokens that create no value” while handing their proprietary data to the labs charging them. Uber reportedly burned its annual AI coding budget in four months. Meanwhile AI agents are getting credit cards and Stripe is building payment rails for them, which means token costs are about to become a line item in every P&L, not just engineering budgets. Stephen’s framework explains what’s underneath: the models are commodities, the data is the moat, and the market has put 90% of its money on the commodity. 🎯 Jump to the best parts 00:00 Why Everyone Is Investing In The Wrong AI00:44 Introduction01:47 Why LLMs Are Becoming Commodities03:16 Why Bigger Models Won't Win05:48 Compute vs Software07:42 The Real AI Moat09:04 OpenAI's Business Challenge12:09 Economic Foundation Models Explained15:50 Building Collective[i]17:24 Why Proprietary Data Wins21:16 Predicting Business Outcomes With AI24:44 The Biggest Enterprise AI Mistake26:24 Why Most AI Wrappers Will Die28:13 Is AI In A Bubble?30:00 The Taiwan Chip Risk32:25 AI, Geopolitics & National Security34:38 Should Frontier Models Be Restricted?36:10 Where CEOs Should Actually Invest In AI37:46 The Most Mispriced AI Opportunity38:40 Advice For AI Founders40:58 Lightning Round42:07 Where To Learn More Important Links * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stephenmesser/ * Collective[i]: https://www.collectivei.com * Stephen’s blog: https://www.reloadnyc.com * Last episode with Stephen: Beyond LLMs: How AI is set to reshape global business Watch or listen now: YouTube • Apple Podcasts See our last episode with Stephen: Our biggest takeaways from this conversation 1. Peak Token is here. Stephen’s core thesis: a language model’s training data is public, so the model is a commodity, and open-source distillation now closes any frontier lead in weeks. The question that kills the business model isn’t whether frontier models are better. It’s how much you can charge for the difference. “If your gap and the premium you’re asking people to pay for a language model disappears in two weeks, but it took you a year to make, that is not the sign of a moat that is going to be defensible.” “How much can you charge for that little incremental improvement? ... My question is, can that cover the cost of everything else?” * The pattern: a frontier release looks untouchable for two or three weeks, then open-source models from China and Japan distill their way to an indistinguishable gap at a fraction of the cost. DeepSeek was the preview, a year ago. * New laptop-class hardware can run high-parameter models locally. Stephen’s estimate: 90% of workloads run local, and you pay frontier prices only for the rare job your machine can’t handle. That ratio breaks the labs’ economics. * The labs’ escape route is narrow premium niches, security and biology, where one result is worth real money. Hence the talent fights over those teams. What to do with this: Price every AI vendor as if their underlying model becomes free in 18 months. If the pitch still works, it’s a real business. Related reads:→ Beyond LLMs, with Stephen Messer (his first appearance) 🚀 Build credibility. Drive pipeline. Win in digital assets. We produce institutional-grade research that positions you as the authority in your category, then distribute it to 100,000+ decision-makers. Let’s talk. 2. Forward-deployed engineers are a lock-in play. The labs’ answer to commoditization is sending engineers into enterprises to build agents, positioned as a replacement for Accenture and McKinsey. Stephen’s read: those engineers have no incentive to build the one thing a token-cost-literate buyer would demand first, an abstraction layer:

    Most AI investors are backing the wrong layer, with Stephen Messer (Internet & AI Pioneer)

  7. Jul 10

    186: banks went on-chain

    Hey, it’s Marc One number stopped me this week: tokenized equities just hit an all-time high of $3.86B in monthly volume, up 145% in a month, while SOL, the chain settling 95% of it, trades at December 2023 prices. What strikes me most: Usage is exploding, and the value is flowing to the plumbing rather than the tokens. For ten years this industry priced tokens as the prize and licenses as overhead. This week showed that the tides are turning: * Kraken paid $600 million largely for licenses to assemble a bank * Sony committed $40 million for a US bank charter. * SWIFT’s shared blockchain ledger ready with 17 global banks piloting 24/7 settlement * And the quiet confirmation sits in a Broadridge release almost nobody read: its distributed ledger repo platform processed $7.5 trillion in June, arguably the largest production blockchain application in finance. It has no token at all. And more signals: * Vanguard blinked on crypto * Saylor sold the low * Coinbase and Gemini switched on stock trading. And 8+ more signals below. the poll from last week: most of 51 readers think that OpenUSD will win the stablecoin war. 51 Signal: Tokenized equities hit $3.86B in monthly volume Top Boardroom Reads & Data * Tokenization Can Change the World’s Financial Architecture (IMF, Tobias Adrian, July 2026). The IMF’s most senior markets official argues tokenization shifts risk from bank balance sheets to the infrastructure operators running the ledgers, which is exactly where regulation isn’t looking yet. * Statement on the 2026 Regulatory Agenda (SEC Chair Paul Atkins, July 2026). The SEC put three crypto rules on its 2026 agenda, covering crypto capital raising, custody and tokenized-securities trading, all targeting proposed rulemakings as early as this month. * The Great Wealth Transfer Is Already Reshaping How Americans Spend (Visa Business and Economic Insights, July 2026). Visa sizes the boomer-to-millennial wealth transfer at $36T over 20 years but finds only ~$8T becomes consumer spending; the rest lands in assets, the pool tokenized products are chasing. * Announcing Our Fourth Fund (Paradigm, July 2026). The largest crypto VC raised $1.2B and explicitly widened its mandate to AI and robotics, the clearest data point yet that crypto-native capital sees its next returns beyond crypto. * Distributed Ledger Repo Processes $7.5 Trillion in June (Broadridge, July 2026). Tokenized repo did $357B a day in June, up 68% year over year, making DLR arguably the largest production blockchain application in finance and nobody talks about it. 🚨Save your spot for our next webinar, space is limited. I’m sitting down with the people dvising the banks and building the stablecoin rails those banks will plug into. For CEOs, board members, and heads of strategy at banks, FMIs, asset managers, and custodians. 📅 23 July, 11am EST 🚨 Space is limited. RSVP to secure your spot. SWIFT just built the banks’ blockchain What happened: SWIFT announced its shared blockchain ledger is ready for use, built in nine months, with 17 banks across six continents set to pilot tokenized cross-border payments: ANZ, BNP Paribas, BNY, Citi, DBS, HSBC, MUFG, Standard Chartered, UBS and Wells Fargo among them. The goal is 24/7 settlement on trusted shared infrastructure. The same week, UBS completed its first live cross-border stablecoin B2B payments with partner Merge, settling from Switzerland in under two minutes. 51 View: For a decade the question was whether banks would come to public chains or build their own. SWIFT just answered it: they’ll do both, but the coordination layer will be theirs. This is the empire striking back. Stablecoins proved the demand for 24/7 dollar settlement, trillions of dollars of it a month, and SWIFT is now repackaging that exact product inside the correspondent banking trust model. We think the pilot-to-production gap is the whole game. SWIFT ships slowly and governance-first, while Kraken, Circle and the stablecoin rails ship weekly. If the 17 banks are settling real client volume by mid-2027, banks keep cross-border money. If not, this becomes the ledger equivalent of their 2017 DLT pilots. Be Smart: When someone says “SWIFT is doing blockchain now,” the sharp question is: settlement in what asset? A shared ledger still needs tokenized central bank money or deposits to settle. Whoever supplies that settlement asset, not the messaging layer, captures the economics. Vanguard blinked What happened: Vanguard, the $12T asset manager that famously refused to list crypto ETFs, opened a search for its first head of digital assets. The role reportedly covers a multi-year roadmap spanning tokenization, stablecoins and custody. CEO Salim Ramji, who ran iShares at BlackRock when it launched the largest bitcoin ETF, has been in the seat since 2024. To be precise: this is a hiring search, no product has been announced. 51 View: The last major allocator holdout is now recruiting for the thing it swore off, and we think the tell is the job description. It reportedly leads with tokenization and stablecoins, with trading nowhere in sight. Vanguard isn’t warming to bitcoin, it’s conceding that funds themselves are being re-platformed, and a $12T manager cannot sit out the format change even if it sits out the asset class. Our read: Vanguard’s first shipped product is a tokenized money market or index share class, and its crypto ETF stance survives another year as cover while the real migration happens underneath it. Saylor sold the low What happened: Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216M across the week ending July 5, its largest bitcoin sale ever, in two tranches of 1,363 and 2,225 coins. Proceeds fund the dividends on its five preferred stock series. The company still holds 843,775 BTC plus $2.55B in cash, but this is the second consecutive week of selling and a sharp acceleration. 51 View: Last week’s issue showed the treasury cohort buying the 2026 low. The biggest of them all is doing the opposite, and both can be true because Strategy is no longer really a treasury company. It’s a leveraged fund with fixed obligations: the preferreds pay out whether bitcoin cooperates or not, and with the stock trading near the value of its coins, selling BTC beats issuing equity. We think this is the first structural seller the bitcoin market has ever had at the top of its own cap table. Watch the ratio of coins sold to dividends owed; if it rises while BTC stays flat, the flywheel is running in reverse. Kraken is assembling a bank piece by piece What happened: Kraken’s parent Payward closed its $600M acquisition of Reap on July 1, adding global card issuance and stablecoin settlement infrastructure. Six days later, Reuters-reported filings showed Kraken pursuing a full EU banking license through Lithuania. Kraken is already the first digital-asset company on the Fed’s payment rails, live since March. 51 View: Put the pieces in order: Fed payment rails in March, card issuance and settlement in July, an EU bank charter in progress, and a reported IPO ahead. That’s a bank org chart being assembled in public, and I think the sequencing is deliberate: infrastructure first, charter second, listing last, so the prospectus reads “regulated global bank with an exchange attached” rather than “crypto exchange seeking respectability.” The margin logic is simple: Exchange fees compress every year, while deposits, cards and settlement float don’t. We expect at least one more top-five exchange to file for a banking charter within twelve months, and the interesting question is whether regulators price that approval like a fintech or like a bank. News Flashes Infrastructure and Markets * Brazil’s B3 introduced options on bitcoin, ether and solana futures, extending Latin America’s most complete regulated crypto derivatives suite. * Gemini launched commission-free US stock trading, its next step from crypto exchange to broker-dealer super app. Regulation and Policy * Sony Bank won conditional OCC approval for Connectia Trust, a US stablecoin trust bank with $40M capital targeting a 2027 launch under the GENIUS Act. * Coinbase secured UK authorization to offer equities and derivatives alongside crypto, its biggest UK expansion since entering the market. Banking and Payments * PayPal’s PYUSD went native on Polygon via Paxos, joining a network settling $2.5B in stablecoin volume daily. * Hyundai Card completed its first live stablecoin remittance between Hyundai Motor’s US and Mexico units using USDT on Avalanche, cutting a 3-4 hour transfer to seven minutes. Funds, Deals and Others * Gauntlet raised a $125M Series C from sole investor SBI Holdings to expand institutional DeFi risk management into yen and peso stablecoins. * Tether invested $20M in Brazil’s Mercado Bitcoin, a 4.5M-user platform with more than 10 financial licenses across Brazil and Europe. The Machine Layer * Paradigm raised a $1.2B fourth fund expanding beyond crypto into AI and robotics, backing Zipline, True Anomaly and Nous Research alongside Hyperliquid and Tempo. * Meta is preparing to sell excess GPU capacity as a cloud provider, monetizing part of its $125B+ 2026 capex the way Amazon once monetized spare servers. * Anthropic’s reported ~$47B revenue run-rate has passed OpenAI’s $25-33B, reshuffling the AI leaderboard mid-cycle. 51 View: The one that matters is Anthropic passing OpenAI. A year ago this ranking looked settled. Now the challenger runs at a reported ~$47B annualized against OpenAI’s $25-33B, and the flip happened without OpenAI shipping anything visibly worse. That is the tell: enterprise AI spend moves to whichever model wins the current eval cycle, so leadership rotates with every model generation. We think run-rate has become a lagging indicator at the model layer. The durable assets are contracts and distribution, and that race is still wide open. Watchlist / On the Calendar What to prepare for:

  8. Jul 8

    The government seized his $110B bank, with Scott Shay (Ex Signature Bank Chairman)

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.51insights.xyz Hi, it’s Marc. ✌️ “If you gave people the choice between full reserve banking and fractional banking, they’d take full reserve banking in a minute.” The person building it is Scott Shay, who has founded four banks the traditional way, including Signature Bank, and created Signet, the first 24/7 payment system inside a US bank. We sat down live at Proof of Talk in Paris. His argument is simple: for years the industry has tried to make crypto behave more like a bank. The better trade is making a bank behave more like crypto. Think about it: Almost every bank in the world works the same way. You deposit money, the bank lends most of it out, and your balance is a promise to pay, settled in batches, often a day later. N3XT does neither. Every deposited dollar sits in short-term Treasuries. Nothing gets lent. The core banking system is a blockchain, so when a client moves a dollar, they move the actual dollar, any hour, any day, in seconds. It’s the first full-reserve “narrow bank” in the US, and it raised $72 million from Paradigm, HACK VC, and Winklevoss Capital to prove the model works. This one is a playbook, not a podcast: how a bank without lending makes money, why the number of stablecoins will be small, and how on-chain payments would have caught a $2.3 billion fraud. About Scott Shay: Scott is founder and chairman of N3XT, a full-reserve, blockchain-native bank that launched in December 2025 under a Wyoming SPDI charter. Before that he co-founded Signature Bank in 2001 and chaired it for 22 years as it grew past $110 billion in assets, created Signet, co-founded Ranieri & Co. with Lew Ranieri, and helped found Bank United of Texas and Merrick Bank. He is also the author of In Good Faith: Questioning Religion and Atheism. “Taking a system like Bitcoin and putting it into a bank was a lot like stapling paper to cardboard.” Why this matters: The race to put dollars on-chain has two established camps. Stablecoins are a ~$311 billion market, and the GENIUS Act (July 2025) bars issuers from paying interest or lending. Banks are answering with tokenized deposits: JP Morgan’s JPMD is live on Base, and 17 banks including Citi, BofA, and Wells Fargo are building a shared tokenized-deposit network through The Clearing House for H1 2027. Scott’s model is a third option: not a token that represents a dollar, and not a claim on a fractional balance sheet, but a bank where the on-chain balance is the dollar itself. 🎯 Jump to the best parts 00:00 Why Signature Bank Was Shut Down00:24 Introduction01:13 Building Signature Bank02:58 Signet Explained05:00 What Really Happened During The Banking Crisis08:37 Why Scott Built NEXT09:16 Full Reserve Banking Explained11:20 Can This Banking Model Work?14:33 Why Traditional Banks Resist Change17:07 Why Choose NEXT Over JP Morgan?20:02 Building A Blockchain Native Bank21:35 Tokenized Dollars Explained23:01 DeFi Meets Banking24:27 Stablecoins vs Tokenized Deposits25:47 What's Next For NEXT?27:09 Lightning Round29:05 Why Scott Never Feared Blockchain29:41 Where To Learn More 🚀 Build credibility. Drive pipeline. Win in digital assets. We position you as the authority among 100,000+ digital asset decision-makers who act on what we publish. Important Links * LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-shay/ * N3XT: https://n3xt.io * Scott’s books: https://www.scottshay.com Watch or listen now: YouTube • Apple Podcasts 🔒 The full breakdown is for PRO subscribers Our biggest takeaways from this conversation 1. A deposit is a promise to pay. N3XT’s product is removing the promise. The clearest way to understand N3XT is one distinction. When you hold a bank deposit, you hold an IOU that gets settled in overnight batches. When you hold a dollar at N3XT, the dollar is there, in short-term Treasuries, all of it, all the time. Scott’s point is that this isn’t a technical detail. It’s the actual product. “Fractional banking started as a three-card Monte sleight of hand.” “All banks at the bottom are debits and credits and batch processing. ... If you gave people the choice between full reserve banking and fractional banking, they’d take full reserve banking in a minute.” * The design comes from the Bitcoin white paper: transfer the whole asset, not a claim on it. Signet, which Scott built at Signature, moved a promise to pay. N3XT moves the dollar. * No lending means no FDIC, no lender of last resort, and no maturity mismatch, because there is nothing to mismatch. Short-term governments only: no interest rate risk, no credit risk. * Where the revenue comes from: Treasury float and payment fees, B2B only. Clients who want yield lend explicitly, on the platform, knowing exactly what they’re funding, instead of the bank doing it silently with their balance. What to do with this: For any “digital dollar” product, ask one question: am I holding the asset or a promise to pay? Your counterparty risk follows from the answer. Related reads:→ How banks are beating stablecoins

    The government seized his $110B bank, with Scott Shay (Ex Signature Bank Chairman)
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