Unqualified Advice

Sean Filipow and Daniel Hatke
  • 4.5 (2)
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  • UPDATED BIWEEKLY

Hello and welcome to Unqualified Advice, an entertaining show for entertainment purposes. Join us as we talk about running our small businesses, what we've been learning, and how we're applying lessons from academia and real life as entrepreneurs and investors.

  1. 1D AGO

    Be Viciously Mediocre or... Get the F**** After It!

    Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, the energy was all over the place — and we kind of loved it. Dan opens with a Jeremy Piven mantra about getting the f*** after it, and it turns out that's basically the thesis for the whole hour. We start in the Fourth Turning framework — Dan's been refining his theory that the turn itself has happened, and now we're watching the energies release into velocities that'll shape the new order. Heavy stuff, but it clicked for both of us this time around. From there we land on ICE enforcement, and Dan delivers what might be the sharpest framing we've had: you've hired ideological agents rather than rule-of-law agents. That sent us into Stasi territory, Ceaușescu's Romania, and a real question about whether a preference cascade is finally building. We take a breather with book talk (Dan's halfway through The Sympathizer and I'm looking for my next read), TV talk (Pluribus on Apple TV is a wild hive-mind premise from Vince Gilligan), and adventure talk (Alex Honnold free-climbed Taipei 101 and Dan once ran up it via stairs in 18 minutes). Dan tells a great Annapurna Base Camp story and we both agree that nothing makes you as hungry as altitude. Then it gets philosophical. We dig into AI and the next generation — Dan's fish-and-water analogy for kids growing up with these tools is going to stick with me. We talk about the failure to teach civics, the need to choose processes over outcomes, and why "mind coughing" (not mind comping) your ideas onto others is how change actually spreads. Mimetics, baby. The back half is a deep dive on generational power: Boomers hold 60 Senate seats despite being 24% of the population, three presidents were born in 1946, and a viral tweet about the $6K senior tax bonus captures the frustration perfectly. Sean calls nostalgia the most toxic of emotions; Dan says it's not even dirty fuel you can burn. We wrap with a conversation about AI deepfakes eroding trust, the printing press as a turning catalyst, and a close we're pretty proud of: go build something this week. Thanks for listening. If any of this made you think, argue, or text someone a screenshot — that's what we're here for. Cheers, Sean Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟡 Greenland is ours via a 1951 treaty Dan said "Greenland is ours via a 1951 treaty." The 1951 agreement is a US-Denmark defense agreement that gave the US basing rights in Greenland (Thule Air Base). It is not a transfer of sovereignty. Greenland remains a Danish autonomous territory. The defense logic Dan cited is real — Greenland is strategically critical for US missile defense — but "ours" is a significant overstatement of what the treaty actually says. 🟢 Three presidents born in 1946: Clinton, Bush, Trump Sean said three presidents were all born in 1946. Confirmed. Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946), George W. Bush (July 6, 1946), and Donald Trump (June 14, 1946) were all born the same year — the first year of the Baby Boom. 🟡 Boomers hold 60 Senate seats / ~24% of population Sean looked this up live using AI during the show and cited 60 seats and 20–24% of the population. Baby Boomers (born 1946–1964) make up roughly 21–23% of the US population as of 2025. The 60-seat Senate figure is plausible for the 119th Congress but would benefit from verification against the latest roster, as retirements and special elections shift the count. The 3X overrepresentation point stands either way. 🟡 Taipei 101 climb took an hour and a half Dan said it took Honnold "an hour and a half to scale the outside." This should be verified against reporting. Dan's own stair run took 18 minutes, which he contrasts with the free-climb time. The broad point about it being a long, grueling ascent is reasonable. 🟡 Mt. Elbert is the tallest 14-er in Colorado Dan called it "Mount Albert" but clearly means Mt. Elbert (14,440 ft), which is indeed the highest peak in Colorado and the tallest 14-er in the Rockies. Sean catches the name in the transcript. The substance is correct; the name is garbled. 🟡 20–30% of New England heat from garbage and wood Sean attributed this stat to Javier Blas on Bloomberg. The general claim that New England has an unusually high reliance on heating oil, wood, and waste-to-energy relative to the rest of the US is well-documented. The specific 20–30% figure for garbage and wood during a cold snap should be verified against the actual Bloomberg data. Sean did note it was from a credible source and flagged his own uncertainty on details. Final Score: 1 green, 5 yellow, 0 red Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it.

    1 hr

  2. FEB 9

    Welcome to Flow City

    Welcome to Flow City Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, Dan's been writing again. His latest Prometheus Dispatch essay on pseudo events — manufactured moments designed to create energy rather than report on it — kicks us off and leads to a conversation neither of us expected. We start with Kennedy-Nixon, swing through Greenland headlines, and land squarely on California's proposed billionaire tax, which turns out to be a far more interesting topic than the name suggests. We break it down: who it actually targets (~200 people), why the name "billionaire tax" is doing a lot of political heavy lifting, how it could trigger down rounds across Silicon Valley, and what happens when capital decides it's had enough. Venezuela and North Korea show up as cautionary tales. As they do. The big question we kept circling back to: are we entering a decade of flow or a decade of friction? We landed on a framework we're pretty proud of — expect the world to run more like Sun Tzu, but navigate it personally with Lao Tzu and Wu Wei. Dan calls it realpolitik meets riding the wave, which honestly might be the whole show in six words. Along the way, we get into why Texas quietly builds more green energy than anyone (narrative violation alert), why EVs got politicized instead of just adopted, when BYD might change everything, and why the best answer Dan ever learned at Columbia Business School was "it depends." Thanks for listening. If any of this made you think, argue, or text someone a screenshot — that's what we're here for. Cheers, Sean Books Discussed: The Image by Daniel Boorstin Private Truths, Public Lies by Timur Kuran What's Our Problem? by Tim Urban The Art of War by Sun Tzu Tao Te Ching by Lao Tzu The Art of the Deal by Donald Trump The Prince by Machiavelli "Flack" Substack by Lulu Cheng Meservey Companies Discussed: Tesla BYD Huawei Ford Cargill Polymarket Kalshi Links & References: Dan's Prometheus Dispatch: prometheusdispatch.com Lulu Cheng Meservey's "Flack" Substack: getflack.com Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 90% healthcare / 10% education split on the California billionaire tax Sean said 90% goes to healthcare and 10% to education and food assistance. That's essentially correct. The actual text allocates 90% to healthcare and 10% to K-12 education, with some language around food assistance as well. Score one for Sean. 🟢 ~200 people affected Sean said the tax would impact about 200–300 people. Multiple sources (CalMatters, CBS News, SF Standard) consistently cite approximately 200–255 California billionaires. Right in the zone. 🟡 Prediction market odds: ~65% on ballot, ~40% to pass Sean cited roughly 65% odds of making the ballot and 40% of passing. Current Polymarket has the "on ballot" market at about 59–60%, and the "passes" market at 37–40% (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket ~30–40% range). His "pass" number was spot on. The "on ballot" number was a touch high but in the ballpark. We'll give him a yellow. 🟡 Trump's 2016 odds were "in the 30s" Dan said Trump's prediction market odds in 2016 were "in the 30s." PredictIt had Clinton at 80–82% on election night, meaning Trump was at 18–20%. FiveThirtyEight's model had Trump at about 29%. So depending on which source you pick, Trump was somewhere between 18–29% — more like the teens-to-high-twenties than the thirties. Close-ish. We'll give it a yellow for the 538 number being 29%. 🟡 8 million Venezuelans have fled Sean said "8 million people, I believe, from Venezuela that have fled the country" and then wondered if that was just in the US. The real number: approximately 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants worldwide (per UNHCR). Only about 770,000 are in the United States. The 8 million worldwide number is right; attributing it to the US would be way off. Sean did flag his uncertainty, so partial credit. 🟢 Texas leads the nation in green/renewable energy Sean stated Texas is the leader in green energy nationwide. This is confirmed and then some. Texas generated 169,442 GWh from wind and solar in 2024 — nearly double California's 92,316 GWh. Texas leads in wind, is #1 or #2 in solar depending on the metric, and has been the national renewable energy leader for over a decade. Narrative violation confirmed. 🟡 EV sales peaked in 2023 and are "down about 10% from peak" Sean said EV sales kind of peaked in 2023 and are down roughly 10%. Tesla sales specifically peaked in 2023 and have declined since. But total US EV sales actually grew 7%+ in 2024 to a record ~1.3 million units, then dipped about 2% in 2025 to ~1.275 million. So total EVs haven't really dropped 10% from peak — it's more like 2%. Tesla's decline is steeper. The direction is right but the magnitude is overstated. 🟡 Dan's home state Colorado has "60% coal" for electricity Dan said "we have 60% coal" for his electricity in Colorado. Here's the thing — he was right about a decade ago. Colorado's coal-fired generation was indeed at 60% in 2014. But it's dropped fast: down to 33% in 2023 and just 27–28% in 2024. Wind now provides 30% of Colorado's electricity, and renewables overall hit 43% in 2024. Dan's number is outdated by about 10 years, but he wasn't making it up — at least the number existed in recent memory. 🔴 James Garfield: "1864ish, 1863" Sean dated James Garfield to the 1860s. Garfield was nominated in 1880, inaugurated in 1881, and assassinated in 1881. Off by almost two decades. However, Sean's story about how Garfield became president is largely accurate and actually undersells it: Garfield went to the convention as a congressman to nominate someone else (John Sherman), gave a nominating speech so powerful that after 36 ballots of deadlock, the delegates chose him instead. He was then shot by a deranged office-seeker four months into his presidency. Great story, wrong decade. 🟢 Garfield was a congressman who gave a great speech and became president Despite the date being off, the substance of Sean's Garfield story checks out. Garfield was indeed a congressman (actually an 8-term congressman), he delivered a speech at a contested convention that turned the crowd in his favor, and after 36 ballots he was nominated as a dark horse. Then assassinated. All accurate. BONUS ID: Dan couldn't remember the name of "The Flack" Substack author — said "Treverney something" with a hyphenated last name. The person he's describing is Lulu Cheng Meservey, who writes the Substack called "Flack" (at getflack.com) and coined the "go direct" communications movement. Final Score: 4 green, 5 yellow, 1 red Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it. Chapters 00:00 – Intro 01:22 – Dan's Prometheus Dispatch & the Art of Not Assuming 03:38 – Pseudo Events: From Kennedy-Nixon to Today 05:26 – Greenland, Geopolitics & the Art of the Deal 06:31 – California's Billionaire Tax: What's Really at Stake 11:20 – The Naming Battle: Why "Billionaire Tax" Is Dangerous Framing 12:40 – Down Rounds, Capital Flight & Unintended Consequences 17:11 – Venezuela & North Korea: The Long Game of Systems 22:02 – Stated vs. Revealed Preferences: Texas Builds More Green Energy 23:55 – A Decade of Flow or a Decade of Friction? 26:53 – BYD, Huawei & the Future of EVs in North America 33:19 – The Kano Model & EV Adoption S-Curves 36:29 – Realpolitik and the Preference Cascade Goes Global 41:31 – Ride the Wave: Sun Tzu Meets Lao Tzu 44:50 – "It Depends" — The Most Defeating Answer 49:14 – Fed Independence Tease & Closing

    51 min

  3. JAN 26

    Riches in the Niches

    Dan and Sean kick off 2026 with a look back at their 2025 predictions—what hit, what missed, and what's carrying over into the new year. From government shutdowns to Big Tech dominance to the DEI pendulum swing, they grade their calls before diving into what's ahead. The big theme for 2026? Geopolitics. With power shifting in Venezuela, potential regime change in Iran, and Trump making noise about Cuba, the hosts break down their "cold Fourth Turning" thesis—consequential global realignment without World War-scale conflict. On AI, they push back on the "hype bubble bursting" narrative with real examples of transformative use (including Dan having Claude work on projects while he slept). They also dig into economic policy critique, the resilience of the American economy despite central planning missteps, and why they're cautiously bullish on 2026. Key Topics: 2025 predictions scorecard Geopolitics as the defining story of 2026 Taiwan's slow-motion transition (the Hong Kong playbook) AI: public perception vs. actual capability Aggregation theory and ecosystem opportunities Economic outlook: muddling through despite bad policy Links & References: Ben Thompson's Aggregation Theory: stratechery.com The Road to Serfdom by Friedrich Hayek (and the 1940s cartoon adaptation) The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe JOLTS Data: Bureau of Labor Statistic

    1h 23m

  4. JAN 6

    Panda Diplomacy

    What starts as a travel recap turns into a wide-ranging conversation about manufacturing, geopolitics, surveillance, and the quiet signals of national confidence. Sean is back stateside after several weeks in China and Japan, where he was auditing suppliers and rethinking what tariffs, supply chains, and "reshoring" actually look like on the ground. From panda diplomacy and traffic that "flows like water," to EV adoption, special economic zones, and cashless surveillance states, the conversation moves quickly from observation to implication. Along the way, Dan and Sean explore why China's manufacturing base keeps getting stronger even as the U.S. talks about bringing jobs home, how switching costs quietly drive de-industrialization, and why blocking progress at every turn may be the most expensive policy choice of all. The discussion expands outward—touching on AI, misinformation, drone warfare, Taiwan, chips, and why history often feels utopian only in retrospect. If Rome, Athens, or Florence were messy while they were happening, maybe that's the real lesson: we're living in history right now. Pandas, it turns out, make excellent diplomats. They're calm, patient, and impossible to rush. Maybe there's something in that.   Topics covered What supply chain audits in China actually look like Tariffs, switching costs, and why April changed everything EV adoption, license plate incentives, and urban policy Special economic zones as policy experiments Cashless convenience vs centralized surveillance AI translation, misinformation, and "the only way out is through" Drone warfare, Taiwan, and fragile chip supply chains Civic pride, cleanliness, and the tragedy of the commons Why America struggles to build—and what that costs Rome wasn't utopian either

    1h 18m

  5. 08/20/2025

    I Guess We Doin Cooperation Now

    After an unintended "summer break" that didn't feel much like one, Dan and Sean are back at the mics. This episode ranges from the personal to the global: burnout, survivor's guilt, therapy culture, and the constant tug-of-war between staying informed and staying sane. On the business and economics front, they dive into tariffs, reshoring, and whether Intel should be nationalized. From semiconductor foundries to data center booms, robots that work for $5 an hour, and the inevitability of bubbles, the conversation traces how global systems reconfigure under pressure. Books and ideas also surface: Abigail Shrier's Bad Therapy, Lanny Bassham's With Winning in Mind, Robert Anton Wilson's Prometheus Rising, and Hans Rosling's Factfulness. The through-line? How to balance inner chatter, community, and coping strategies in a time when, as Dan puts it, "we are moving from an age of thinking into an age of feeling." Along the way: Why over-therapy might be counterproductive Gen Z and the "lost rites of passage" (driving, dating, drinking) Corn subsidies, Eli Lilly, and the high-fructose dilemma What Clarkson's Farm gets right (and wrong) about farming How cultural norms shape family, community, and loneliness It's part catch-up, part forecast, and part reckoning — a reminder that sometimes the best strategy is just to "keep your head above water and ride the wave."

    56 min

  6. 06/02/2025

    Oikos and Nomos: What Is the Economy, Really?

    This week, Dan and Sean dive into the deep end of economic uncertainty—from the philosophical origins of "the economy" to the lived reality of layoffs, inflation, and shifting trade routes. Why do oil rigs in North Dakota matter to the price of cheese? Are we witnessing demand destruction or just another panic? And what does "creative destruction" really look like when the grenades are turning into landmines? Along the way: internal combustion nerdery, fourth turning fatigue, and a fair bit of macroeconomic exasperation. If you're feeling off-balance in today's economy, you're not alone. We're all just trying to stay afloat in choppy waters—and sometimes the best you can do is keep your head up and wait for the next swell. Books Discussed: In This Economy? – Kyla Scanlon A Splendid Exchange – William J. Bernstein Amusing Ourselves to Death – Neil Postman The Fourth Turning – William Strauss and Neil Howe The Siege – Ben Macintyre The Fifth Risk (and a new companion) – Michael Lewis Podcasts Referenced: Odd Lots Hidden Forces (Grant Williams + Demetri Kofinas – The Hundred Year Pivot) The Fed Guy (Joseph Wang) Quote of the Week: "They're not grenades anymore—they're landmines we've set for ourselves." Chapters: 00:00 – Weekend work and the managerial grind 01:00 – Oilfield layoffs and sour vs. sweet crude 04:00 – Why internal combustion is still the apex of engineering 06:00 – What does "economy" actually mean? (spoiler: it's Greek) 10:00 – Sheep barons, trade routes, and the roots of specialization 14:00 – Consumer sentiment vs. reality: is the mismatch getting worse? 18:00 – Tariffs, inflation, and the risk of stagflation 24:00 – Layoffs, rate cuts, and the Fed's boxed-in dilemma 30:00 – Budget gaps, fake fixes, and the math that doesn't math 34:00 – The future of global trade (with or without us) 39:00 – Will the Fed move fast enough—or too late again? 45:00 – NIH cuts and the role of scientific "waste" 51:00 – A fresh read from Michael Lewis + other book recs 56:00 – The fourth turning isn't over: the ecpyrosis continues 59:00 – Swimming, surfing, or just floating through it all 1:04:00 – Walmart's margins and the myth of "just eating" tariffs 1:10:00 – Median income, optionality, and the meaning of wealth 1:13:00 – Outro: shifting sands and the promise (or threat) of change

    1h 16m

  7. 05/11/2025

    Calling All Mental Nomads

    Dan and Sean return to the mic with a message for the wanderers, the misfits, and the intellectually restless. This episode explores what it means to seek challenge instead of comfort, to embrace unfinished thoughts, and to carve out space for messy, real-time reflection. If you've ever felt like a mental nomad—curious but unrooted—this one's for you. Topics Covered: Why we sometimes feel allergic to routines The surprising difficulty of "simple" goals Building the room when you don't fit the ones you find Podcasting as an act of unscripted exploration The value of talking through your thoughts before they're fully baked

    1h 1m

  8. 04/27/2025

    The Buyer's Market is Real (and Zillow is the Worst)

    Hello show notes readers! This week, we're trying something new in our mission to bring you insights from the world of entrepenuership.  We're bringing in an outside expert to exlpore an area of entrepeneurship that some of you may have thought about - real estate! This week, we're joined by Lindsay Howard, broker and entrepreneur, for a deep dive into the real world of real estate — starting a family brokerage, surviving the NAR commission shakeup, why Zillow is the villain nobody asked for, and how the 6% mortgage panic is mostly a memory issue. We also talk through the hidden challenges of working with builders, why every new agent needs a second income stream, and what's really driving the current buyer's market. Plus: the forgotten days of Rolodex MLS listings and 15% mortgage rates. Whether you are thinking about diving into real estate, or just wondering why every third house on your street has a "For Sale" sign, we hope this episode will help give you some new insights.  Thanks for listening to Unqualified Advice. If you're looking for a Houston-area agent — or just want to learn more about Lindsay — visit HowardHomeRealty.com.

    43 min
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About

Hello and welcome to Unqualified Advice, an entertaining show for entertainment purposes. Join us as we talk about running our small businesses, what we've been learning, and how we're applying lessons from academia and real life as entrepreneurs and investors.

Information

  • Creator
    Sean Filipow and Daniel Hatke
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    38
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2024
  • Show Website
    Unqualified Advice