Derisky Business

Center for a New American Security

“Derisky Business” is a show that explores economic security issues within the broader national security and foreign policy landscape. Hosts Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz dive into the weeds on issues like export controls, tariffs, and trade, linking these issues to broader debates on how to advance U.S. global economic leadership during times of geopolitical turbulence. Listen for new episodes bi-weekly, and check out other podcasts from the Center for a New American Security at cnas.org/connect/podcasts. This podcast is supported in part by Amazon and by general support to the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security Program.

  1. Aug 6

    The Blind Spot in U.S.-China AI Competition with Paul Haenle and Terah Lyons

    Paul Haenle and Terah Lyons of JPMorganChase join Emily and Geoff to talk about their recent report on U.S.-China AI competition and what policymakers miss when they only look at the latest AI model benchmarks. They get into the latest uproar over (yet another) capable Chinese AI model, what U.S. industrial policy for AI should look like, and how capital can be allocated amidst rapid technological change and massive geopolitical uncertainty. Paul Haenle is Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific (APAC) Policy and Strategic Competitiveness at JPMorganChase, where he leads strategy and external engagement on policy issues critical to the firm’s global competitiveness, including trade and investment, supply chains, technology, and infrastructure.  Terah Lyons is currently a Managing Director and the Global Head of AI and Data Policy at JPMorganChase, where she bridges the Chief Data and Analytics Office and Global Government Relations as a member of both executive teams, drives the company's global strategy, engagement, and positioning on AI, data, and digital policy issues, and support's the Firm's AI governance and responsible AI strategy.  Disclosure: Separate from this podcast, JPMorganChase is a financial supporter of CNAS. As with all of our supporters, we maintain strict intellectual independence and editorial discretion in our research products, including our podcasts. More information on our intellectual independence policy can be found on our website. Christopher Miller, Chip War Dan Wang, Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, Who Will Make Money on AI?, CNAS, May 5, 2026 Michael Cembalest, Patchmageddon: The race to patch software vulnerabilities before zero-day cyber-exploitations proliferate , JPMC, July 2026 JPMorganChase, Beyond the Benchmarks: A Systemic View of U.S.-China AI Competition, May 2026

  2. Jul 30

    The Fortress USMCA Strategy with Meredith Lilly and Amb. Jorge Guajardo

    Emily and Geoff talk about the future of the North American trade relationship with Meredith Lilly and Jorge Guajardo. They get into what’s next for USMCA negotiations, why Canada and Mexico would support a Fortress USMCA approach to strengthening economic security alignment across the continent, and the big questions over what exactly the U.S. wants out of the USMCA talks. Plus, what happens if this all ends up in a “zombie USMCA!” Jorge Guajardo is a Partner at DGA Group and Mexico’s former ambassador to China. Meredith Lilly is Professor and Simon Reisman Chair in International Economic Policy at Carleton University and former Foreign Affairs and International Trade Advisor to then-Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Neil Shearing, The Fractured Age: How The Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy David A. Gantz and Tony Payan, The Future of Trade: A North American Perspective Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, Economic Security in North America: Recommendations for USMCA Review, December 3, 2025 Jamie Tronnes and Emily Kilcrease, “Trump’s Replacement Tariffs Will Have Unintended Consequences for USMCA,” National Review, June 12, 2026 Emily Kilcrease, “Statement for Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Hearing on Section 301 Investigations into Structural Excess Capacity,” May 5, 2026 Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, “Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports,” CSIS, July 21, 2026

  3. Jul 16

    Is There a Trump Sanctions Doctrine? With Josh Kretman

    Josh Kretman, former sanctions official, joins Emily to discuss whether there is a Trump doctrine on sanctions and what that might look like. They take a tour around the world’s sanctions hot spots, unpacking the latest developments on the Venezuela, Iran, and Russia sanctions programs and debating whether the U.S. can effectively wield geoeconomic power when China too often plays the role of a sanctions spoiler.   Show notes:   Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power Bill Bowder, Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Fight for Justice NPR, “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America,” June 18, 2026 Hans Nichols, “Senators introduce revised Russia sanctions bill to honor Graham,” Axios, July 14, 2026 Richard Nephew, Emily Kilcrease, and Geoff Gertz, “Richard Nephew on the U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program,”  Derisky Business, June 26, 2025 Rachel Ziemba and Emily Kilcrease “The Long Tail of the Hormuz Energy Crisis with Rachel Ziemba,” Derisky Business, June 26, 2025 Eleanor Hume and Kyle Rutter, Sanctions By the Numbers: 2025 Year in Review, CNAS, January 29, 2026 Emily Kilcrease, Hit It With Your Best Shot: An American Doctrine of Economic Pressure, CNAS, April 1, 2026

  4. Jun 18

    Are the 301 Tariffs Really About Forced Labor? with Josh Kagan

    Josh Kagan joins Emily and Geoff to give the big picture behind recent U.S. tariffs related to forced labor, as well as providing an insider’s view on the future of trade and labor issues. In an area that is often a blind spot for the U.S. national security community, Josh helps explain why labor issues have become central to the U.S. approach on trade. Josh Kagan is Special Counsel at Kelley Drye and previously served as the Assistant United States Trade Representative for Labor Affairs at USTR. USTR, Section 301 Investigation into Forced Labor Washington Post Editorial Board, “Trump tries a new trick to raise tariffs,” June 3, 2026 USTR, “Ambassador Greer Pens Letter to Washington Post Editorial Board in Response to June 3 Editorial” Jamie Tronnes & Emily Kilcrease, “Trump’s Replacement Tariffs Will Have Unintended Consequences for USMCA,”National Review, June 12, 2026 Robert Lighthizer, No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers Michael Beeman, Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond Sherrod Brown, Myths of Free Trade: Why American Trade Policy Has Failed

  5. Jun 5

    Europe’s Looming Trade War with China, with Tobias Gehrke

    Emily and Geoff sit down with Tobias Gehrke to talk about why Europe is facing a looming trade war with China and how prepared (or not) it is to handle trade wars on multiple fronts. They also get Tobias’s take on how things are faring in the Transatlantic relationship, Europe’s pragmatic strategy for dealing with U.S. tariffs, and whether Europe can just wait out the Trump administration. Tobias is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations where he focuses on European power. He covers geoeconomics, economic security, European economic strategy, and great power competition in the global economy. Shownotes: Tobias Gehrke, “Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion,” European Council on Foreign Relations, March 31, 2026 Richard Bravo, Daniel Basterio, and Jenny Leonard, “Left with few choices, EU braces for a trade fight with China,” Bloomberg, June 3, 2026 U.S. Mission to the European Union, “Factsheet: The United States and European Union Reach a Massive Trade Deal,” July 28, 2025 European Commission, “EU-US Trade Deal Explained,” July 28, 2025 European Commission, “Strengthening Europe’s tech sovereignty,” June 3, 2026 Francesca Ghiretti, Geoeconomic Competition Podcast

  6. May 27

    How the Private Sector Can Boost U.S.-South Korea Economic Security Cooperation (LIVE)

    In a live conversation at CNAS, Emily unpacks a new CNAS report exploring how the private sector can advance economic security cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea. She's joined by Tami Overby, Partner at DGA; James Kim, Director of the Stimson Center's Korea Program; and Eleanor Hume, Research Assistant in the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program and co-author of the report. Show Notes: Geoffrey Gertz and Eleanor Hume, Invested Allies: How the Private Sector Can Boost U.S.-South Korea Economic Security Cooperation

  7. May 21

    Stability without Deterrence Doesn't Work, with Sara Schuman

    Sara Schuman joins Emily to debrief on the Trump-Xi summit. She explains why it's OK to have a summit that is light on deliverables, describes how China is viewing its relative strength in the relationship, and outlines what she's looking for in the year ahead. Sara recently joined CNAS as an adjunct senior fellow, after a long career working on China trade issues for the U.S. government. She is also managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, where she leads the firm's international trade practice. "US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Talks China Trade," Bloomberg Talks Camille Boullenois, Malcolm Black, and Alessia Caruso, China’s Next-Generation Industrial Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Rhodium Group Laura Silver and Laura Clancy, "Americans’ views of China have grown somewhat more positive in recent years," Pew Research Center Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? The White House, "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Historic Deals with China, Delivering for American Workers, Farmers, and Industry" Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, "President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with U.S. President Donald J. Trump"

  8. Apr 30

    Assistant Secretary Chris Pilkerton on America's Approach to Investment Security

    Earlier this week, Emily hosted Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Investment Security Chris Pilkerton for a live discussion at CNAS. Investment security has emerged as a central pillar of U.S. national security and foreign policy, with expanding sets of U.S. and partner government policies addressing the national security implications of certain investment flows. The discussion will explore the administration’s perspectives on investment security and its ongoing efforts to both strengthen and streamline investment security programs, as well as how investment security fits into broader U.S. work to manage intensifying geopolitical competition.  You can watch the full event here.

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About

“Derisky Business” is a show that explores economic security issues within the broader national security and foreign policy landscape. Hosts Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz dive into the weeds on issues like export controls, tariffs, and trade, linking these issues to broader debates on how to advance U.S. global economic leadership during times of geopolitical turbulence. Listen for new episodes bi-weekly, and check out other podcasts from the Center for a New American Security at cnas.org/connect/podcasts. This podcast is supported in part by Amazon and by general support to the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security Program.

Information

  • Creator
    Center for a New American Security
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    62
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2024 All rights reserved.
  • Show Website
    Derisky Business