The Saturday Sendout

The Simple Side
  • 5.0 (1)
  • BUSINESS
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

The Saturday Sendout is tradeable market news in one place. Get weekly financial information on insider, company executive, and politician trading plus tons of other insights. thesimpleside.substack.com

  1. 3D AGO

    We Called It - Energy Still On The Rise & Software Stocks Recovering

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com Enjoy this article thanks to Nibbles! Reminders: Copy Trading HerePortfolio Views HereMacro Indicators HereResearch Reports Here Help Me Help You! One of the things I want to do more than anything else is ensure that you all are getting what you want from me. Please take a bit of time this weekend to let me know what you think can be improved upon in the newsletter by clicking the link below. There aren’t a million questions, nor am I collecting data, I just want to hear from you. Do I get to say that we called it yet? Just about two weeks ago, I posted my typical Saturday Sendout newsletter & podcast. I was discussing how the software selloff seemed irrational. We were seeing a software stock selloff on AI replacement fears, and at the same time, we were seeing the mag 7 selloff on fears that AI capex wouldn’t generate substantial returns. I titled the article: “The AI Paradox | Nobody Wins and Everyone Loses” for this reason. Can we have both? Can AI replace software companies while investment in AI loses its value? The answer is glaringly obvious: No. It must be one way or the other, and it seems that other investors have been coming to the same consensus this week. Stocks like INTU, RELX, and TTAN were all huge losers during the AI scare that has been going on for really the past year. The stocks are down drastically from their highs: -55%, -50%, and -55%, respectively. From the Tuesday after we posted that article, the stocks are now up 7.88%, 14.25%, and 18.67% while the SPY is up 0.46% and the NASDAQ 100 is up 1.04%. Now, I am not saying that we called it perfectly and software stocks will continue rising for months on end and we are all going to get rich investing in them, but the more important takeaway is the framework we had to have to “rationalize” the market’s irrationality. Ben Graham — mentor to Warren Buffett — was one of the first people to really make a point of this. He was reflecting on the fact that sentiment and news quickly adjust market prices. People vote on whether they think the news is bullish or bearish for a stock on a daily basis. In the long run, however, the market always returns to fundamentals (aka the weighing machine). One of the most important ways investors, businessmen, or entrepreneurs have made their fortunes is through a process called “riding the wave.” I am sure you know what that means, but in case you don’t, let me give you a quick recap. Picture a surfer. He is waiting in the water, then he turns and starts to paddle. Just as the wave starts to crest, he jumps on his board, and all he has to do is stay upright as the wave brings him along. This is one of the most powerful investing mental models. There is always some sort of wave out there. Some are bigger than others, some bring you closer to the shore, some of them you don’t see, some can wreck you, and some can make you lots of money. The waves can be small and unseen by most, or they can be huge, and everyone stands witnesses. When Les Schwab started in the tire business, he struggled to compete with others around him. Tire manufacturers would open up stores right next to his, and these were the same tire manufacturers that he had to buy his tires from. How could he compete when the company would sell their tiers cheaper than he could buy them for? Well, Les rode the foreign tire wave. Toyo tires entered the market with a cheaper alternative and wouldn’t force Les to overpay. Well, Les rode the foreign tire wave, and his company, Les Schwab Tire, would end up selling after his death for over $3 billion. Now, most people probably never saw the foreign tire wave, but it made Les Schwab a very wealthy man. Les got lucky because he sort of fell into the wave he rode throughout his lifetime. Investors like us are not so lucky. We have to do something that Les never had to, and that something is the hardest thing to do for any and every one: developing the vision to find the wave early. The Gold Rush & The AI Wave I won’t bend your ear about this again, but I wrote this article months ago discussing the “second-hand effects” of the AI wave. I compared it to the gold rush that occurred back in the 1800s, where the people getting rich were not the ones panning for gold, but rather the ones selling them their picks and shovels. Sure, every once in a while, someone would find gold and strike it rich, but the majority of the folks who went out there in search of fortune ended up with nothing more than the picks and shovels they bought when they went down there. In our initial article, we called out three key areas: semiconductor tool manufacturers/suppliers, data centers, and screens (we were a bit off on the screens thing). Some of the names we called out were ASML, AMAT, LRCX, and KLAC — all of which have had incredible runs since then. The one thing I missed back in June, which I posted about in November, was energy. One of the things I realized when putting together that article in November was that energy would be the hardest part of the AI buildout to start and sustain. The complications were (and still are) endless: the lack of supply, the aging grid, the distaste toward nuclear. These are all mounting tailwinds for the energy sector. Take it from the man who is driving a majority of the AI race: Nvidia CEO, Huang: Not only does he say that energy is the limiting factor, but his business is showing it, too. Currently, NVDA's finished goods inventories have grown to historic levels. Part of the reason for this growing level of inventory is CEO Huang’s belief that the demand level in 2026 will require it; however, it shows quite clearly that GPUs are NOT the limiting supply factor and will not demand huge premiums forever (unless demand runs wild again this year). Regardless, one thing remains true AI is worthless without data to train on, that data cannot be trained on unless those GPUs are available, those GPUs are worthless unless they have the power needed to run them. Everything comes back to the power supply. A report from the International Energy Agency shows a great representation of what I have been talking about for the past year or so. We are still anywhere from 4 to 5 years out from energy demand/growth, even getting close to leveling off. The other tailwind we are looking at is the rising energy costs. As much as it sucks to hear for those struggling with energy bills, data centers and rising costs will not stop anytime soon. The only way to bring these costs down is to flip the supply-demand curve from heavy demand to heavy supply. Again, requiring more investment in American energy production. I think the best investments to be made right now are still in the energy sector. The last thing I will leave you with is the performance of the S&P sectors YTD. So, the question remains, “What is the right move to make?” and the answer isn’t super obvious; however, there are some simple adjustments you can make to stay ahead of the shifting global economy. The first thing I would recommend would be to shift capital into the AI Second-Hand Effects portfolio and the Flagship Fund if you want to put your capital to work. The AI-Second Hand effects portfolio, which you can copy trade on Autopilot (use this link), is energy-centric and has been a clear winner over the past few months, and is outperforming the S&P by around 23% since July of 2025. We have been discussing the potential diversification of this portfolio if we can find other opportunities within the AI second-hand market, but valuations are still extremely high, and we have no reason to be in a rush. Now, I am going to get into our portoflios for paid subscribers, but whether you are a free or a paid subscriber, be on the lookout for 2 energy names coming your way over the next week. Quick Macro Views Macro seems relatively stable from a numbers standpoint. With the war (something we cannot account for in numbers), this probably drops into hold or slight sell territory. The general economy looks fine, again from a number standpoint. Sure, things have been "decreasing” over the past month, but in general no strong reaction from models either way. See the following for macro stances on SPY, GLD, and TLT. These are available to paying subscribers in real time on my website: https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators Portfolios & Next Week’s Moves Whether or not you agree with me that energy is going to be the tail that wags the dog, I think you should pay attention to the current market’s price action. Now, I am going to give everyone an early access look at the stocks I will be posting research articles on next week. We have one name that is a very high-risk, high-reward play, and one that is set to have longer-term growth. The two names we are looking at for next week are both going to be added to our AI second-hand effects portfolio next week. We are going to wait to see what price action looks like from the recent Iran attacks before going into new companies.

    16 min

  2. FEB 21

    Weekly Market Updates | Top Stock Picks From ETFs & Mutual Funds

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com Enjoy this article thanks to Groundfloor — if you are looking for a place to keep your “sidelined” cash, Groundfloor might be the spot (perfect for our strong cash position). Reminders: Copy Trading HerePortfolio Views HereMacro Indicators HereResearch Reports Here Help Me Help You One of the things I want to do more than anything else is ensure that you all are getting what you want from me. Please take a bit of time this weekend to let me know what you think can be improved upon in the newsletter by clicking the link below. There aren’t a million questions, nor am I collecting data, I just want to hear from you. You can let me know what you want me to write about, weekly things you want to see more of, if you want me to cover earnings, anything! I am happy to hear it all! Thank you so much. I truly appreciate it. Simple Side Shareholders, welcome back to another weekly edition of The Saturday Sendout from The Simple Side. A few key things that happened this week, both in the markets and with the portfolios: some good, some bad. Before we get into it all, I want to quickly highlight what our quant macro indicator is flashing. Right now, we have shifted out of the “buy” territory for the general economy. This is the first time we have dropped into a hold since last week. This wavering between hold and buy has been happening since the beginning of the year. The highest level we have reached was 0.35 (still a far cry away from the max value of 1), and the lowest we have reach this year has been -0.049 (which is no where near strong sell territory). What is frustrating is that we are getting no clear signal (buy or sell) from the model. One of the things that we do know is that these periods of “waiting” — while not common — do happen from time to time. The most recent one occurred mid to late 2025 when we saw no clear signal from April to July (over 4 months in limbo). In this case, we have been in limbo since November 2025 (a current total of 4 months). One of the benefits of being a paid subscriber here at The Simple Side is getting access to a collective of portfolios that we offer. While not all of our subscribers follow these portfolios, many do and those that have followed the Macro Portfolio have outperformed the S&P 500 handily so far in 2026. The current portfolio is up about 14% YTD outpacing the S&P 500’s return of 0.74% YTD. You can find this portfolio on the “Portfolios” tab on our website: https://thesimpleside.news/. The macro indicators can be seen here: https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators. The total macro indicator isn’t the only place where we are “missing” clear conviction, in the quant model we have built on the S&P 500 we are also witnessing a “I don’t know” feeling. We have been bouncing back and forth between the “sell - hold - buy” levels since the beginning of this year (again, with no conviction). So basically, it seems like the underlying economy is conflicted relative to the current valuation of the stock market. What does that mean for us? Well, it means keep calm and carry on. We have been holding 50% cash since that red circle you see on that chart. That is the beginning of 2025. Since then, the stock market is up about 16% and I am not upset in the slightest about the fact that 50% of our cash has missed out on that run. The market is still devilishly overvalued. This ratio shows the Wilshire 5000 index against the Gross National Product of the US — an indicator that is well known as “The Buffett Indicator.” The US market just can’t seem to return company valuations to “normal” levels. I think the huge swing up we are seeing can be “blamed” on two factors * The popularization of retail trading and $0 commission trading. * The AI “super cycle” which is leading to a huge “potential income” boost. Both of these are still playing out and they, of course, have multiplied one another. Regardless, the world won’t stop moving, overvalued or not. The other thing that won’t stop are the richest people in the world getting richer, and boy have they made some interesting moves recently… 13F, ETF, and Mutual Fund Information Where has the smartest money in the world been putting their capital? I worked with the team over at insideredges.com to put together a quick list of 5 stocks that these investors have been snapping up across the board. Before we get into that, I first want to share with you some of the craziest data that the IE team shared with me. After the stock market crashed in 2022, ETFs, Mutual Funds, and 13F investors all seemingly had a perfect grasp on some companies that they wanted to buy. In January 2023, 5 key stocks popped as being heavily bought by all three groups. Those key stocks? * META * NVDA * NFLX * AMZN * ADBE Over the next year those companies would return 194%, 239%, 65%, 80%, and 77% respectively, and an equal weighting portfolio of those companies would have returned 131% in just one year. They managed to do it again in 2024 picking only 3 key stocks: META, NVDA, and AMZN which returned an equal weighted portfolio 93%. In 2025 it was more of the same and the portfolio returned 41.33%. Now, heading into 2026, the 3 wealthiest groups in the world have spoken and have highlighted a new set of 5 key stocks. 1. Nvidia — NVDA The number one pick 13F filers was NVDA. The stock is up only 1.78% YTD and is one of the few AI hype companies to really produce profits from the “hype” surrounding the company. It is now one of the most necessary, and impressive companies that exists in the world today. Currently, the company boasts a 3yr revenue growth of about 61%, net margins that eclipse 50%, and ROIC - WACC of 166% : 18.64% (one of the most impressive metrics I have ever seen). Not only are their profits impressive but the balance sheet matches just as well. Their cash holdings are now over 40 billion dollars and their debt is a measly 10 billion. Wildly impressive numbers from the behemoth, but what I find more impressive are the “smart money” moves that have been happening. Over 7% of all mutual funds and over 12.11% of all ETFs are buying up the stock in early 2026. It is the same story with the 13F filers of the world, over 31% are buying in. Now, when a huge majority of the worlds wealthiest are willing to all go in on the same company, what do we think is going to happen? I bet they do everything they can to keep that company riding high. 2. AppLovin — APP AppLovin is an interesting choice because the stock is down over 37% YTD. However, it seems like analysts and “smart money” disagree with me. Currently, 11% of 13F filers are buying in, 6% of mutual funds are buying in, and 6% of ETFs are buying in as well. Oh, and the analysts? They are heavily weighted towards “buy” and “outperform” ratings. The lowest current estimate is set at $455 which is an 9% return from the current price. The highest estimate is set at $860 which is a 105% return, and the middle of the road price the stock at $670 or a 60% return (ridiculous numbers across the board). A quick DCF analysis on my end pegs the price of the stock at 20% returns over the next year, or a fair value of 529.13 (a bit more reasonable than the analysts). I am assuming free cash flow will grow at a pace of 50% for the next 5 years which is less than the current 5 year trend of 81.5%, less than the current 3yr trend of 118%, and is less than the all time trend for the company of 67.66%. Seems like a fair assumption to me. Regardless of what I think, “smart money” is going all in. 3. Tesla — TSLA Okay, I need to start going through these a bit faster… Tesla is a name on this list that I did not expect to see. The stock is down 8% YTD and is currently price quick high in my opinion — but again, in the world of mutual funds and ETFs, my opinion doesn’t matter all that much. Tesla stock hasn’t seen great revenue growth recently, so maybe insiders know something big is coming… To me, and again I say “to me” because we are focusing on the trades of those running portfolios much larger than mine, Tesla looks like a completely speculative bet. That, or it is a bet on Elon Musk and the potential for more M&A between his companies. In general, the company holds a strong cash position and is starting to see more and more revenue come from the energy generation segment of their business. Large buyers in Q4 of 2025 include Renaissance Technologies, George Soros, and Mario Gabelli. As for the big numbers we are paying attention to 24% of 13F filers are buying alongside 6% of mutual funds and 8% of ETFs. 4. AMD — Advanced Micro Devices AMD is a name that I am happy to see on this list. Yes, the company is up over 160% in the past three year, but I think they are relatively overlooked in the AI race. Their revenue growth hasn’t had the same NVDA trajectory, but it does look like their balance sheet is starting to benefit from the AI wave. The company’s cash position jumped to nearly 2x the prior quarters size in Q4 as all of their key metrics started to perk up. Key buyers here were Renaissance Technologies and Jefferies Group which make this a particularly interesting purchase. This is the 13th quarter in a row that Jefferies Group has purchased AMD, and is their second largest purchase of the company. The big numbers from purchasers are as follows: 18% of 13F5% of mutual funds8% of ETFs 5. NOW — ServiceNow This is another one of the names that I am happy to see, but am also astonished to see. ServiceNow is one of the recently beaten down software companies down over 55% from their highs over the past few years, and down 30% YTD. However, “smart money” doesn’t seem to care. NOW has been a growth machine, just constantly growing revenue, operating income, and free cash flow quarter over q

    26 min

  3. FEB 7

    Software Smoked | Our Plan Going Forward

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com Enjoy this article thanks to Wild Alaskan Company! Reminders: Copy Trading HerePortfolio Views HereMacro Indicators HereResearch Reports Here Good Morning, Simple Side Shareholders… I am going to write a lot (sort of ramble) about the current state of our portfolios, but there is a summary at the bottom of this section that will hit the quick highlights. Let’s address the elephant in the room… an absolutely brutal week for our portfolios. Across the board we got crushed and it was absolutely no fun to watch it happen. That being said, the outlook for these portfolios is not 1 week, or 1 month, or 6 months… I try to invest for at least 1 year and many of the holdings in my portfolio have a 3 year (or more) time horizon. In general, I am not super worried about the recent market drop. I don’t think that AI is going to suddenly render companies useless. Yes, you can build your own apps, and yes you can build your own software, but then you have to host it, manage it, fix all of the bugs, and your only tech support is another AI. The questions I started to ask myself were simple truths about the business we own… Do you think that companies are going to create their own custom tax software instead of using Intuit? Do you think that companies are going to create their own custom PDF software instead of using Adobe? Do you think that companies are going to create their own custom security and compliance software like Qualys? I just don’t see that being the case, and if you think AI companies are going to take away from the moats that these companies have then I would disagree. I think it is much easier to integrate an AI solution into an already working product than it is to build a completely native AI product. Google is a great case study. Remember when everyone was hating on Google because the company wasn’t far enough ahead in the AI race? It took them a few months to catch up and surpass nearly all of their competitors. I think more of the same will apply to the companies we own. That being said, I refuse to believe that I will read the market 100% right 100% of the time. There was probably a world where I could have predicted that software companies would go under fire because of AI fears, and I would have stopped my investments in some of my Flagship Funds biggest losers. I am sure that I had opportunities to decrease my tech exposure in the Tech-Focused Growth portfolio when AI worries came about as well. Luckily, the AI portfolio is focused on infrastructure which tends to outperform in market downturns. Of course, we have a lot of speculative holdings so we will never be completely absolved of market downturns, but we will fare much better. Well, now that we have addressed the underperformance of our portfolios, let’s talk about what I am thinking about and how I plan to make changes in my investment strategy as we continue through 2026. While I watched the market and my portfolios tumble this week, the first thing that came to my mind was “Thanks be to God that I have a 50% cash position” the second thing that came to my mind was diversification. My overall holdings are heavily indexed into tech, and specifically software, and I felt the pain because of it this week. My Flagship Fund is typically focused on high growth, low cap-ex companies regardless of the sector they are in. In the past, this has resulted in portfolios with 3/20 stocks in the software sector, it has resulted in 4/20, and of course this year we ended up with our highest concentration ever with 9/20 (darn it). This isn’t the worst thing in the world, but our worst returners are -32%, -23% and -23% (all of which are software companies). Honestly, I think allowing a very volatile sector to take over a vast majority of the portfolio was an oversight on my part. That being said I firmly believe that these companies are extremely quality and do not (in any way) deserve the selloff they received. Regardless, all of the issues in the market have brought me to 3 distinct paths: * Stay the course, potentially index heavier into some of my higher conviction holdings. Look to DCA into some positions that are underwater that I like. * Shift portfolio weights in some of our funds to reflect a lower tech/software focus, and make no additional purchases. * Shift portfolios by adding new positions and diluting current underperformers. What is so challenging about the current market is that you could be 100% correct about a stock, its ability to grow, and the fundamentals and the stock price will struggle while “performative” names are quicker to explode in price regardless of performance. QLYS for example saw 10% growth in 2025, had EBITDA of 47%, released an agentic AI risk management marketplace, and announced more share buybacks. The company projected growth of 7% in 2026, remains incredibly profitable, and has better growth rates than the majority of the industry. The stock after earnings? Down 14%… how does that make sense? The company is now valued at the same level that it was back in 2021 when their revenue was basically HALF of what it is today. If the company was showing terrible metrics and was not growing, I could understand the price action but with growth, buybacks, and great profits I couldn’t be more lost. I have been saying it for weeks, but the emotional driven marketplace is what we exist in right now. The internal debate is whether or not we should diversify to dodge some of the emotional risk involved in individual sectors, or trust that the companies we own are high quality and will recover. Something else that is very important to think about is the multiples that companies trade at. When you look at a company’s PE ratio, you know that is a “value indicator,” but what does it really mean. Well, simply put, it is the amount of dollars you are willing to pay for $1 of that companies earnings. So if a company earns $100 and you buy their stock for $200 you are paying $200 / $100 = $2 dollars for each dollar of earnings. This also tells us that at that same price point, it would take 2 years of that company operating at the same level for its earnings to be worth what you paid for it. In this example if you pay $200 for a company and then in year 1 it makes $100 and then in year 2 it makes another $100, then you paid a fair price. However, if the company in year 1 makes $100, then in year 2 makes $90, you overpaid by $10 for that stock. Now things aren’t always that simple because stock prices don’t follow their earnings 1:1, and people speculate. I doubt that many people are willing to hold a stock they bought at a 22 PE for 22 years. Why am I explaining this right now? Well, because in this case it matters greatly. People are willing to pay high PE multiples when they see companies growing, or when they think their is a clear opportunity for the company to maintain their current earning levels. What we are witnessing with software is a loss of faith in companies earnings growing, and the question you have to ask now as an investor is when does this faith come back? Stock prices move on investor emotions not the true underlying fundamentals. These software companies are going to have to “prove” that their earnings won’t be hindered by AI, but will continue to grow. Sadly, this will take at least 1 or 2 quarters of proven growth before I think we start to see real turnarounds in these companies. I say “sadly” because I am selfish and I want every stock I buy to launch to the moon immediately. Overview * Our portfolios are over indexed on the software sector (that isn’t normal, but just so happened to be our bad luck this year) which means we got hit HARD this past week. * We are looking at positioning our portfolio differently going into the next few quarters in case investor sentiment around the software companies remains low. * Stock prices are based on investor emotion in the short term, not real fundamentals so PE ratios and FCF multiple could decrease further from here. * I think we have a path to recovery over the next 1-2 quarters as long as we see earnings continue to grow. * I have an interim plan of attack for the next 2 quarters while we wait to see if we need to trim our software positions. Of course, all of my strategies and and investment decisions will be hidden behind the paywall, but before we get into that I want to quickly share the current quant analysis we have on the macro environment. Like always, the macro analysis can be found on our website: (https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators). Let’s start with our general macro overview… General Macro Overview (Quant Model) In general, our quant macro model isn’t bearish here. We are still riding between buy and hold territory which really isn’t good enough for us to say “back up the truck” nor is it bad enough for us to say “unload everything.” We are waiting to deploy large amounts of capital until we see the “Strong Buy” show up across the board (in the Macro, SPY, and GLD models). You’ll notice that the model is still ranking GLD a strong buy at these levels which, in general, I think is a bit of a bearish call on the current equities markets. Regardless, I think the economy and the underlying forces driving profits for these companies are stable. One of the market indicators I pay attention to closely outside of my personal macro model is this S&P 500 momentum model. The nerd explanation for this model is the “slope of the 12-month regression of the S&P 500.” The simple way to think about it is the pressure on investors and the market. The higher the indicator goes, the more pressure there is to buy (higher emotionally driven market). The lower the indicator goes, the more selling pressure there is (also higher emotions in the marker), and the closer the line is to it’s

    26 min

  4. JAN 24

    Portfolio Recovery Week | All Portfolios Outperforming The SPY

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com Enjoy this article thanks to Cash App! Reminders: Copy Trading HerePortfolio Views HereMacro Indicators HereResearch Reports Here Good Morning, Simple Side Shareholders Like always, we are going to take a quick look at the current macro perspective we hold. You can and will find lots of different macro analyses out there, but none that are quite like ours. We focus on three core components — bonds, gold, and equities — and we have built a macro model for each. These three models provide a “risk score” which represents the risk the asset has of losing value. These current risk scores are accessible by paying subscribers on our website: https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators. After each model runs, we run a fourth and final model that takes all of the data we have compiled and combines all of the other models together. I know that is a bunch of nerdy information, and I won’t bore you with any more of it. Just know that we are doing a lot to ensure our Macro Regime tracker stays accurate and valuable. The current overall regime is a slight buy at 0.17. If you are looking to allocate capital, I think the current state of the economy warrants it, however, there isn’t any strong conviction to either “back up the truck” and buy nor any to “unload everything and run.” In general, it is a safe investing environment. In the image below, you should be able to see how over the past three months we have really been wavering between periods of slight buys and then periods of holds. Again, I think this bodes well for the market in general, and if you check the 3yr look at the macro indicator you can see that the last time we bounced between slight buys and holds on this indicator, we saw a large buying opportunity follow. Remember, this regime looks at gold + bonds + equities so don’t base investing decisions entirely on the total macro indicator! We have detailed looks at Gold, bonds, and equities individually on the website: https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators. I will show you all of the current regime rankings though: Last thing before we move on — we have added the macro portfolio to the portfolios tab on the website. You can see the macro portfolio by clicking here: Macro Portfolio. Please ignore the extremely high CAGR if you go to look at the portfolio… since the portfolio is brand new and has performed so well, the CAGR shows up as incredibly high. The macro portfolio is currently up around 13.37% YTD Portfolios & Research Performance Paying subscribers have access to 4 different portfolios. Flagship FundTech GrowthAI PortfolioMacro Portfolio Click here to copy trade them on Autopilot. They also have access to our stock research reports as well. These stock research reports are typically once weekly and offer Bull, Base, and Bear cases for the stock. We also provide a time horizon as well as an exit price and our target return for the stock. We send out stock research reports through this newsletter, and publish all of them on our website here — https://thesimpleside.news/research — so that we can be transparent with the performance and the returns. This past week, we had another one of our picks hit our target return. We have published 16 stock reports. Of those 16, we have 12 that have closed, and 4 are still open. Of the 12 closed, 10 of them have closed in profit. So, we have an 83% win rate and a 24.3% average return… incredible. Before we get into all of the specific holdings we have across all of the portfolios, and our upcoming changes, I want to share the current performance we have across the board. Apologies for the fuzzy screenshots… I am trying to solve this problem… Portfolio Performance: Ignore the CAGR on the Macro Portfolio… since the portfolio is up 13% from Jan 2, and that is all the data we have on it, the CAGR just looks insane, but has yet to be proven. Stock Research Performance Portfolio Updates The password to access the website will be found after the paywall. Paid subscribers get direct access to all of these portfolios & real-time updates. My portfolios are available for paid subscribers to access in three places: Joining paid here: LINKCopy trading On Autopilot: LINKViewing them on my website: LINK Now let’s get into all of my portfolios, holdings, and updates…

    16 min

  5. JAN 17

    Macro Regime Says Go Long Gold | Macro Portfolio Now +5.69% YTD

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com Enjoy this article thanks to Cash App! Reminders: Copy Trading HerePortfolio Views HereMacro Indicators HereResearch Reports Here Good Morning, Simple Side Shareholders I like how we have been operating over the past couple of weeks in our weekly Saturday Sendout. We have been jumping right into the Macro analysis that we have running on our data website (https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators). Let’s start with our general macro overview… Macro Overview The current macro environment is a hold from my perspective. For those of you who do not know, “my perspective” incorporates 12 different macro metrics, including “The Buffett Indicator,” the spread between the 2yr and 10yr yields, inflation data, and more. So what does a hold mean, and what is driving that general market sentiment? A rough bond market and an overvalued stock market are currently competing against a strong gold market. That battle is resulting in a stalemate in my models. Every week, as you know, our website is updated with the newest macro model. That model includes a weekly allocation update (which is made every Friday) and a macro regime rating across the three asset classes. The allocation is made between 3 tickers: TLT (representing bonds), SPY (representing equities), and GLD (representing gold). You can see that the weight is still extremely heavily skewed towards GLD holdings. I think this speaks volumes about the underlying data driving the market. I have been saying for weeks now that the market has been under the wrath of investors’ emotions for a LONG time. Yes, the SPY is up 0.76% YTD, but in general, there is no data behind this to support the continued increase in price. In fact, if you take a look at the YTD rankings our model has attributed to the SPY, you’ll notice that for the past 10 days, we have been sitting in the “hold” and “sell” categories, and remain in a “sell” regime. The other thing our model doesn’t like right now? Bonds. Here is a look at the past 3 months of ratings from the macro indicator on bonds… YIKES. We have remained in a state of “hold” to “strong sell” for the past 3 months in a row. Now, we have seen TLT start to rise in the past few days, but in general, the model has been keeping us far, far, far away from bonds. Now, let’s talk about something that our model has been loving… gold. Over the past three months, we have seen “Strong Buy” and “Buy” ratings on gold almost exclusively. Over those 3 months, GLD is up 6%. If you follow the “Weekly Allocations” you’ll recall that our model has been allocating over 80% of the portfolio to GLD since the beginning of this year. Total Macro Portfolio Returns Okay, now you kinda have a feel of the general macro environment. Bonds and equities are underperformers and rated “sell” showing signs of a “risk off” regime. Gold and commodities on the other hand are showing signs of risk on and have taken over the allocation YTD. So, if you were keeping up with all of this and rebalancing your portfolio every Friday in accordance with our allocations how would your portfolio be performing YTD? I started a new account on SOFI that I am using to track the performance of the Macro indicators and the allocations between GLD, SPY, and TLT, and YTD we are up 5.69%. I will be adding the Macro Portfolio to the “Portfolios” page of the website soon! Weekly Roundup What the sector chart says Returns this week were brought to you by steadier, cash-generating sectors. Basic Materials rose +3.32%, Energy +3.13%, and Utilities +3.05%. Real Estate added +2.11% and Industrials +1.82%. When investors move toward these groups, faster-growing areas usually cool off — Technology -0.61%, Healthcare -1.32%, Communication Services -0.10% did exactly that. Rates dipped midweek and finished a bit higher, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.23% on Friday. Mortgage rates around 6.06% helped housing activity. Gold set fresh records (a signal that investors wanted some safety), while oil near $59–61 modestly helped consumers and transportation. Semiconductors improved late in the week on stronger guidance from Taiwan Semiconductor; big banks had mixed days as headlines circled credit-card interest caps and Federal Reserve independence. Outlier events * Nationwide Verizon outage with $20 credits. Negative for Verizon in the short term due to service issues and bill credits; limited competitive spillover. * Proposed one-year 10% cap on credit-card APRs. Negative for major card issuers and large banks because it would cut interest income and likely tighten credit availability. * TSMC’s stronger outlook and higher capex. Positive for chipmakers and equipment suppliers by signaling durable AI and data-center demand into 2026. * Mortgage rates at a three-year low. Positive for homebuilders and housing-linked spending as financing improves. * Gold and silver at records. Positive for precious-metals miners and a sign investors kept some defense in portfolios. * Justice Department–Fed headlines. Negative for large financial firms because added policy uncertainty tends to curb risk appetite. Insider transactions * Delta (DAL): CEO sold ~$12.3M — the only airline sale we noted this week. * Redwire (RDW): A 10% holder filed multiple large sales (well over $200M combined), concentrating selling pressure in one space/defense name. * WR Berkley (WRB): A 10% owner bought shares twice (about $88M combined), steady accumulation in property-casualty insurance. * Aktis Oncology (AKTS): Multiple buys (over $75M total) signaled early-stage confidence in biotech. * Additional notable moves: sales at Diversified Energy (DEC), UWM (UWMC), Jefferson Capital (JCAP), IPG Photonics (IPGP), Madrigal (MDGL), and Airbnb (ABNB). Overall this week, insider buying clustered in insurance and biotech, while selling centered on one space name and a handful of consumer and finance names. Analyst changes Upgrades leaned toward semiconductors and the largest platforms — Applied Materials, Broadcom, Microsoft, Oracle, Netflix — reflecting confidence in AI-related spending and execution at scale. Intel was lifted to Neutral. On the defensive/consumer side, PepsiCo and Walmart picked up support. Roche and L’Oréal were marked to Neutral/Hold. The clearest message: analysts favored chip equipment, leading chip suppliers, and high-quality mega-caps. This week, investors preferred steady sectors while growth areas paused. Rates finished slightly higher, metals stayed strong, chips improved late, and housing benefited from lower mortgages. For next week, the key swing factor is the path of yields: easing yields typically help growth stocks and longer-duration tech; if yields firm up, value-tilted sectors (Materials, Energy, Utilities) are more likely to keep the lead. Stock Research Reports I have been MIA when it comes to writing my research reports… at the beginning of the year I was finalizing the new website and building the new Flagship Fund portfolio (both of which took priority over my research reports). Now that both of these are finished, I can shift my focus back to writing and building out new stock research reports! Oh, and by the way, our research reports have been CRUSHING IT! If you are a paying subscriber, you can head over to https://thesimpleside.news/research to get access to all of our historical and current picks. Currently, we have posted a total of 14 picks, and of those 14 we have 7 closed trades that are winners and 2 closed trades that are losers. So, we have a total of 9 closed positions. We have 5 open positions and of those we have 4 picks that are in the green, and 1 (ticker: NICE) that is in the red. I will begin posting new picks this week! The first one that I am coming out with is a very high risk reward play. I don’t talk about these kind of picks very often and this will be reserved for paying subscribers only. Portfolio Information Paid subscribers get direct access to all of these portfolios & real-time updates. My portfolios are available for paid subscribers to access in three places: Joining paid here: LINKCopy trading On Autopilot: LINKViewing them on my website: LINK I am going to be adding the Second hand AI and the Tech growth portfolios to the website in the portfolios tab this weekend, so be on the lookout for those updates! Now let’s get into all of my portfolios, returns, and details

    18 min

  6. JAN 3

    New Research, Portfolio, and Macro Tracking Website Released

    Good Morning Simple Side Shareholders! We are starting off 2026 with a bang — we have finished stage 1 of development for our website! You can watch the attached video to see how to get access to everything now! We will be sending out the weekly newsletter, including all of the new holdings for the Flagship Fund will be sent out tomorrow! Down below I will do some explaining on how to access the new website in case you are having trouble with the video! Q&A Where can I access the website? thesimpleside.news Where can I get the password to access the pages? Paid subscribers go here: CLICK HEREFree subscribers go here: CLICK HERE Where do I put in the password? First, click on any of these headers! Then this page will show up! All you need to do is enter the password here! Where can I give feedback on the website? All you need to do is click the feedback button on the website! What is the password? You can find the current password here: CLICK HERE Alright everyone — I will see you with the new portfolio holdings tomorrow! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thesimpleside.substack.com/subscribe

    24 min

  7. 12/30/2025

    ALL PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS REVEALED [FREE] | The Simple Side

    Reminders - Disclosure is in the email footer - You can copy trade our potfolios here - You can get our daily news updates here - You can see our stock research reports here - Not all of these stocks make it into our portfolios ** ALL OF MY PORTFOLIOS THAT I HELD IN 2025 ARE AVAILABLE TO BE SEEN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS ARTICLE! This includes all current holdings and returns! ** YOU CAN ALSO SEE MY WEEKLY PICKS FOR DEC 30 - JAN 2 **Please enjoy this whole article for free thanks to CONSTANT CONTACT! Good Morning, Simple Side Shareholders Last week we took a quick look at some of the macro indicators that I have been building and working on in the background. We are going to start implementing these strategies into our investing in 2026 and wanted to give you all another look into systems we have built. We are tracking 3 main things: SPY — EquitiesTLT — BondsGLD — Gold I wanted to build a system that would utilize tickers so that anyone could implement this strategy if they so wished. That meant easily tradeable tickers (no options, no futures, etc.) With that being said, let’s jump into the current regimes we are seeing across all three markets (Equities, Bonds, and Gold). As a reminder, I have built these charts on thesimpleside.news/market-indicator so you can go and play with them there! Eventually, these will end up behind a paywall, so if you would like to get access, I would join our paid plan ASAP! You can do so by clicking here! Now we are going to jump into the three different regimes driving GLD, TLT, and SPY (gold, bonds, and equities). Before we do so, I want to let you know that at the end of these three sections, I will be setting up an “Optimal Portfolio” to follow based on my macro assessment. My goal was to find something to do with my 50% cash position that could potentially yield returns higher than 3.25%/yr outside of HYSA (high yield savings accounts). I will start with a small total cash position of around $1k as a test and then build the portfolio up as time goes on and there are true outsized returns from the portfolio. This portfolio will be something I hope to start tracking in 2026, and will continue to build and track over the next year. After I discuss the three current regimes each week, I will share the overall portfolio positioning. Using this strategy over the past month, I yielded the following returns As you can see I made about 2% over the last 21 trading days while the SPY lagged growing by less than 1%. Equities (SPY) I want to start out with our macro view over the past year. You can click on this image to expand it. The overall regime for 2025 in equities has been “risk on” meaning equities were a buy in 2025. Now, as you all know I have been heavily in cash in 2025 (50%). Now, if I had this indicator built then, would I have been as risk off? Probably not, but I didn’t have this built. Sadly, this mean we have left some $$ on the table this year. It is frustrating, but in general I like being in the current cash position that we are in. The question is, why? Well, in general I don’t like the forces that are driving the market. You can see on the graph where I have drawn some large red lines which mark emotionally driven sells that have happened in the market. Now, the indicator has caught them and labeled them as “Strong Buys” in the short term, but how long will it be before we see one of these dips that doesn’t stop? The sad reality is that I do not know, and neither does anyone else. One thing I do know is that risk of that happening increases drastically when the markets are driven nearly entirely by emotions. So yes, this is a risk off environment for me. If you want a quick look at the SPY regime for the past month, see the following graphic. Again, this is viewable at thesimpleside.news/market-indicator. So, coming into the first week of 2026 we are showing a “risk-off” regime. Bonds (TLT) The first thing I want to show you with bonds in the price relative to the historical price we have seen since 2024. Please note that the line you are looking at is colored by the regime we were in at that time. You can see that bond prices are sitting at the same levels now as they were at in 2004. Note that this doesn’t directly mean that bonds are cheap. Bonds aren’t like a company that builds up its revenues overtime — they pay a rate (set by the Gov. in this case), and are priced according to the rate they pay. There are other factors as well, but in general this is how they are priced. In general, bonds have been jumping between risk on and risk off this year. Over the past month though, we have been in “strong sell” territory and this past week we came into some “hold” territory. In general, I would say a “strong sell” or “strong buy” would mean it is time to enter or exit for short term gains. Currently we sit in that “hold” territory, and I would imagine we will sit here through this week. I will say that the past few months of risk off sentiment does bode well for equities (aka the SPY). The next inflation report will come out about 2 weeks into January, and the future price of bonds will probably be pretty dependent on what we see out of this data. One thing that I am not expecting is “higher for longer” CPI marks. Obviously, due to the gov. shutdown we missed a reading in October, but in general inflation is trending down and I expect it to do so in January as well. Obviously this data will not be 100% accurate, and adjustments can happen, but in general I expect things to sit and remain around that 2% to 2.5% mark. This will general bode well for bond prices. Commodities (GLD) I had to come back and adjust what I had written here after what the market did to gold and silver today (SLV down 7% and GLD down 4.4%). In general, this doesn’t come as a surprise as the indicator switched from “buy” to “hold” showing a changing in tides for gold. Will the drop be sustained? That is another question that I do not have the answer to. I would assume that our indicator will soon pick up some red or green in the graph soon and we will know that it is time to enter or start exiting into GLD positions. I don’t have a play on gold here because there is no strong conviction one way or another from the indicator. The Current Macro-Driven Portfolio The current portfolio is as follows: SPY18.38% GLD71.48% TLT10.14% Weekly Roundup Outlier Events The WBD takeover battle escalated as Paramount Skydance added a $40.4B personal guarantee from Larry Ellison, while WBD’s board continued to favor Netflix’s alternative. Gold and silver printed new records, and the S&P 500 and Dow closed at fresh highs in a holiday-shortened week. Notable deals and headlines included ServiceNow buying Armis ($7.75B), Alphabet acquiring Intersect ($4.75B plus debt), Waymo’s temporary pause during a San Francisco blackout, and a rare insider buy pop at Nike after Tim Cook’s purchase. What Happened Last Week Equities drifted higher on light volume, led by AI stocks and broadening participation beyond mega-caps. The 10-year hovered near 4.1% as mortgage rates eased into the low-6% range, supporting housing activity at the margin. Macro prints were mixed: a firm 4.3% Q3 GDP contrasted with a dip in consumer confidence, while holiday spending tracked relatively solid. Bitcoin was range-bound in the high-$80Ks to low-$90Ks and precious metals outperformed. Our Opinions This Week The market remains a rates-and-AI story into year-end. Near term, we are watching whether the gold/silver momentum persists if rate-cut odds wobble. Base case: constructive into the final prints of the year; stay tilted to cash-strong positions and portfolio leaders. Remember, we are investing in a very volatile and emotional market right now. It is NOT the time to be placing super speculative bets unless your risk tolerance is above the moon. In general, I think heavy cash wins over the next few months/weeks until the market decides to get a better footing. Stock Research Reports As you all know, one of the things we offer subscribers are research reports on stocks that we think have potential to outperform over the next year-ish. We publish all of these stock picks in the same place our market indicators live: thesimpleside.news/stock-research. Currently, we are seeing outsized returns and a shorter timespan than we would have expected. Here is one of our recent picks that already hit its target in less than 2 months… We made a call on AppLovin (APP). We called for a 38% return on November 18… and we expected it would take us till Q2 2026 to reach that target, but APP surprised us. We surpassed the $730 price target on Monday, December 22, and secured the gain! Here is the article we wrote back on Nov 18: Now, these research articles we send out for free, but we have other things we offer only to paid subscribers. Our real personal portfolios are one of those things. We have our own money invested in them, and if you want to learn about them, today is your lucky day…. so keep reading… Portfolio Information Paid subscribers get direct access to all of these portfolios & real-time updates by joining paid here. Or you can directly copy trade by going here: Autopilot. Typically, these portfolios are hidden behind a paywall. You can’t see them, you can’t access them, and you can’t find them anywhere online. That is, of course, unless you join our paid membership! HOWEVER, today you get a one-time access to everything FOR FREE. I do this every December to let people know that I am being 100% honest about my portfolios, to show that I don’t just have things tracked in a spreadsheet, and so that you all can see that what we do here isn’t just to sell you on my newsletter. It is to build real wealth investing together. I make more money from my investing than I do from the newsletter. That is why you don’t see me

    21 min

  8. 12/20/2025

    The Macro Regime Driving My Investment Decisions | The Saturday Sendout

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com Reminders - Disclosure is in the email footer - You can copy trade our potfolios here - You can get our daily news updates here - You can see our stock research reports here - Not all of these stocks make it into our portfolios Good Morning, Simple Side Shareholders Last week I told you that I had a few things planned for 2026. I wanted to share one of them with you now. The Macro Forecasting (aka The Simple Side Indicator) that I have been building behind the scenes. Of course, what you are looking at is a model that runs from 2010-2025. While predicting macro environments is near impossible, this model does a fairly good job of providing a “risk assessment” for anyone in the markets. You’ll notice a few places (I have marked them above) where the model was yelling “sell” and the market proceeded upwards, but in general, when you see a deep red sell indication it is a good time to step away from risk on assets. The same is true in the other direction, when you see a deep green color, typically it is an incredible time to “back up the truck.” This model will be shared will all paying subscribers starting in 2026 and will make weekly appearances in this newsletter alongside our market commentary, portfolio updates, etc… I will try to upload it onto the website TheSimpleSide.News soon as well. For those of you wondering, the dark red you see is a “Strong Sell” signal and the dark green is a “Strong Buy” signal. These two colors only appear about 4% of the time on this chart — typically indicating that there is a major market change on the horizon. Weekly Roundup This weeks weekly roundup is going to be focused less on the news and more on what I am witnessing in the markets. The first thing I want to do is take a look at TSSI (The Simple Side Indicator) for 2025 and see how the data feels about the market. Overvalued. That is how the data feels about the market and how I feel as well. Paying subscribers know (and now you free folks do too) that I am 50% in equities and 50% in cash. Really, when I say in cash I am in accounts yielding 3.25% or 3.5% interest. In general, I feel like that is the correct position to be in given the current state of the market. What is the current state of the market: emotional. The market is being driven almost entirely by emotion, news, and investor sentiment. The market we would like to be invested in is the one where fundamentals are driving market prices. If you take a look at that beautiful red circle we have drawn above, you’ll notice that since June, the data behind the market hasn’t appeared favorable in the slightest. Now, surprisingly TSSI hasn’t actually hit a “Strong Sell” alert yet in 2025, though it has been close. Here is another view of the same chart…. You can see that since June we have been exclusively in the “hold” and “sell” ranges. So, you are probably wondering why I am sitting in 50% cash when the indicator looks to be switching regimes from risk off back into a middle ground. Well, what is currently carrying the indicator from risk off to hold territory is the current market momentum. From July up until November, there has been incredible momentum in the market. That momentum has brough the market out of the “sell” phase and into the “hold” phase. However, there is something happening that might change the way the market will trend in 2026. That red circle on the right hand side of the screen… Momentum is slowing. Buyers are not showing up like they have in the past. If the regime starts to shift from hold back to the “risk off” territory, there is a great chance that we see another LARGE dip happen. One of the things we account for in this model are the Federal Fund Rates (set by the Federal Reserve), so if we end up losing chair Powell and a new chairman decides to honor Trump’s wishes by cutting rates, the model will take this into account. Needless to say, we are still very risk off. Building cash reserves, taking chips off the table, and being patient are the name of the game right now. I will be watching the data and the indicator heavily over the next few weeks and months as the government comes back online and we start to see somewhat more accurate data flowing again. Needless to say, we are still in a relatively RISK OFF REGIME right now. That can change, but at the current moment, risk off. Portfolio Information Paid subscribers get direct access to all of these portfolios & real-time updates by joining paid here. Or you can directly copy trade by going here: Autopilot. I have had my portfolios available to copy on Autopilot since July, and had them available on DoubleFinance (which is now closed) since early in 2025. Since then, the market has returned about 7% to investors that makes up about half of the YTD returns of around 16%. That is relatively impressive performance for the SPY (not comparable to the past few years), but compared to the 10-12% most investors expect, 16% is great! On Autopilot, our portfolios show returns of 1.58%, 14.12%, and 12.01% (again returns since July 2025). All but one of my portfolios has nearly doubled the SPY returns since they were shared on Autopilot! If you have been following me since the beginning of the year (and invested in the AI Second Hand Effects portfolio at my initial article send in late 2024), you would be looking at two portfolios with returns of 36.16% returns in the Flagship Fund and 57.76% in the AI portfolio! Not too bad for someone who makes stock picks once a year! Regardless, 2026 is shaping up to be a challenge. As I come into the 2026 rebalancing season for my portfolios I am increasingly disheartened by the prospects of the 2026 year. As always, there can be a multitude of anomaly events that could launch the market in one direction or another. All that being said, I have some BIG updates coming for the portfolios (especially the Tech Growth), and even more changes coming in early 2026! If you are not allowed behind the paywall (aka not a paying subscriber, you should join now). We are and have been increasing our offerings to paying subscribers and have been showing real results and real returns for years now. If you haven’t wet your beak yet, 2026 is the yea to do so. Portfolio Returns, Holdings & Updates FLAGSHIP FUND: LINK

    14 min
See All (77)

About

The Saturday Sendout is tradeable market news in one place. Get weekly financial information on insider, company executive, and politician trading plus tons of other insights. thesimpleside.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    The Simple Side
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    77
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © The Simple Side
  • Show Website
    The Saturday Sendout