Doom Debates

Liron Shapira
  • 4.3 (16)
  • TECHNOLOGY
  • UPDATED SEMIWEEKLY

It's time to talk about the end of the world. With your host, Liron Shapira. lironshapira.substack.com

  1. Destiny Raises His P(Doom) At The End

    1D AGO

    Destiny Raises His P(Doom) At The End

    Destiny has racked up millions of views for his sharp takes on political and cultural news. Now, I finally get to ask him about a topic he’s been agnostic on: Will AI end humanity? Come ride with us on the Doom Train™ 🚂 Timestamps 00:00:00 — Teaser 00:01:16 — Welcoming Destiny 00:02:54 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 00:04:46 — 2017 vs 2026: Destiny’s views on AI 00:11:04 — AI could vastly surpass human intelligence 00:16:02 — Can AI doom us? 00:18:42 — Intelligence doesn’t guarantee morality 00:22:18 — The vibes-based case against doom 00:29:58 — The human brain is inefficient 00:35:17 — Does every intelligence in the universe self-destruct via AI? 00:37:28 — Destiny turns the tables: Where does Liron get off The Doom Train™ 00:46:07 — Will a warning shot cause society to develop AI safely? 00:54:10 — Roko’s Basilisk, the AI box problem 00:59:37 — Will Destiny update his P(Doom)?™ 01:04:19 — Closing thoughts Links Destiny's YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@destiny Destiny's X account — https://x.com/TheOmniLiberal Marc Andreessen saying AI isn’t dangerous because “it is math” — https://a16z.com/ai-will-save-the-world/ Will Smith eating spaghetti AI video — https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/ai-will-smith-eating-spaghetti Roko’s Basilisk on LessWrong — https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/rokos-basilisk Eliezer Yudkowsky’s AI Box Experiment — https://www.yudkowsky.net/singularity/aibox Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1h 7m
  2. The Facade of AI Safety Will Crumble (Video)

    1D AGO

    The Facade of AI Safety Will Crumble (Video)

    On the eve of superintelligence, real AI safety is a nonexistent field. I break down why in my latest essay, The Facade of AI Safety Will Crumble. This is a podcast reading of a recent Substack post: https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/the-facade-of-ai-safety-will-crumble Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    10 min
  3. Elon Musk's Insane Plan for Surviving AI Takeover

    4D AGO

    Elon Musk's Insane Plan for Surviving AI Takeover

    Elon Musk just made a stunning admission about the insane future he’s steering us toward. In a new interview with Dwarkesh Patel and John Collison on the Cheeky Pint podcast, Elon said that humanity can’t expect to be “in charge” of AI for long, because humans will soon only have 1% of the combined total human+AI intelligence. Then, he claimed to have a plan to build AI overlords that will naturally support humanity's flourishing. In this mini episode, I react to Elon's remarks and expose why his plan for humanity's survival in the age of AI is dangerously flimsy. My original tweet: https://x.com/liron/status/2020906862397489492 Clip source: Elon Musk – "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space” Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    10 min

  4. 5D AGO

    The Only Politician Thinking Clearly About Superintelligence — California Governor Candidate Zoltan Istvan

    California gubernatorial candidate Zoltan Istvan reveals his P(Doom) and makes the case for universal basic income and radical life extension. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Teaser 00:00:50 — Meet Zoltan, Democratic Candidate for California Governor 00:08:30 — The 2026 California Governor's Race 00:12:50 — Zoltan's Platform Is Automated Abundance 00:19:45 — What's Your P(Doom)™ 00:28:26 — Campaigning on Existential Risk 00:32:36 — Does Zoltan Support a Global AI Pause? 00:48:39 — Exploring His Platform: Education, Crime, and Affordability 01:08:55 — Exploring His Platform:: Super Cities, Space, and Longevity 01:13:00 — Closing Thoughts Links Zoltan Istvan’s Campaign for California Governor – zoltanistvan2026.com The Transhumanist Wager by Zoltan Istvan – https://www.amazon.com/Transhumanist-Wager-Zoltan-Istvan/dp/0988616114 Wired Article on the “Bunker” Party – https://www.wired.com/story/ai-risk-party-san-francisco/ PauseAI – pauseai.info SL4 Mailing List Archive – sl4.org/archive Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1h 19m

  5. FEB 10

    His P(Doom) Is Only 2.6% — AI Doom Debate with Bentham's Bulldog, a.k.a. Matthew Adelstein

    Get ready for a rematch with the one & only Bentham’s Bulldog, a.k.a. Matthew Adelstein! Our first debate covered a wide range of philosophical topics. Today’s Debate #2 is all about Matthew’s new argument against the inevitability of AI doom. He comes out swinging with a calculated P(Doom) of just 2.6% , based on a multi-step probability chain that I challenge as potentially falling into a “Type 2 Conjunction Fallacy” (a.k.a. Multiple Stage Fallacy). We clash on whether to expect “alignment by default” and the nature of future AI architectures. While Matthew sees current RLHF success as evidence that AIs will likely remain compliant, I argue that we’re building “Goal Engines” — superhuman optimization modules that act like nuclear cores wrapped in friendly personalities. We debate whether these engines can be safely contained, or if the capability to map goals to actions is inherently dangerous and prone to exfiltration. Despite our different forecasts (my 50% vs his sub-10%), we actually land in the “sane zone” together on some key policy ideas, like the potential necessity of a global pause. While Matthew’s case for low P(Doom) hasn’t convinced me, I consider his post and his engagement with me to be super high quality and good faith. We’re not here to score points, we just want to better predict how the intelligence explosion will play out. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Teaser 00:00:35 — Bentham’s Bulldog Returns to Doom Debates 00:05:43 — Higher-Order Evidence: Why Skepticism is Warranted 00:11:06 — What’s Your P(Doom)™ 00:14:38 — The “Multiple Stage Fallacy” Objection 00:21:48 — The Risk of Warring AIs vs. Misalignment 00:27:29 — Historical Pessimism: The “Boy Who Cried Wolf” 00:33:02 — Comparing AI Risk to Climate Change & Nuclear War 00:38:59 — Alignment by Default via Reinforcement Learning 00:46:02 — The “Goal Engine” Hypothesis 00:53:13 — Is Psychoanalyzing Current AI Valid for Future Systems? 01:00:17 — Winograd Schemas & The Fragility of Value 01:09:15 — The Nuclear Core Analogy: Dangerous Engines in Friendly Wrappers 01:16:16 — The Discontinuity of Unstoppable AI 01:23:53 — Exfiltration: Running Superintelligence on a Laptop 01:31:37 — Evolution Analogy: Selection Pressures for Alignment 01:39:08 — Commercial Utility as a Force for Constraints 01:46:34 — Can You Isolate the “Goal-to-Action” Module? 01:54:15 — Will Friendly Wrappers Successfully Control Superhuman Cores? 02:04:01 — Moral Realism and Missing Out on Cosmic Value 02:11:44 — The Paradox of AI Solving the Alignment Problem 02:19:11 — Policy Agreements: Global Pauses and China 02:26:11 — Outro: PauseCon DC 2026 Promo Links Bentham’s Bulldog Official Substack — https://benthams.substack.com The post we debated — https://benthams.substack.com/p/against-if-anyone-builds-it-everyone Apply to PauseCon DC 2026 here or via https://pauseai-us.org Forethought Institute’s paper: Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion Tom Davidson (Forethought Institute)’s post: How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be? Scott Alexander on the Coffeepocalypse Argument --- Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    2h 28m

  6. FEB 4

    What Dario Amodei Misses In "The Adolescence of Technology" — Reaction With MIRI's Harlan Stewart

    Harlan Stewart works in communications for the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI). In this episode, Harlan and I give our honest opinions on Dario Amodei's new essay "The Adolescence of Technology". Timestamps 0:00:00 — Cold Open 0:00:47 — How Harlan Stewart Got Into AI Safety 0:02:30 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™ 0:04:09 — The “Doomer” Label 0:06:13 — Overall Reaction to Dario’s Essay: The Missing Mood 0:09:15 — The Rosy Take on Dario’s Essay 0:10:42 — Character Assassination & Low Blows 0:13:39 — Dario Amodei is Shifting the Overton Window in The Wrong Direction 0:15:04 — Object-Level vs. Meta-Level Criticisms 0:17:07 — The “Inevitability” Strawman Used by Dario 0:19:03 — Dario Refers to Doom as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy 0:22:38 — Dismissing Critics as “Too Theoretical” 0:43:18 — The Problem with Psychoanalyzing AI 0:56:12 — “Intellidynamics” & Reflective Stability 1:07:12 — Why Is Dario Dismissing an AI Pause? 1:11:45 — Final Takeaways Links Harlan’s X — https://x.com/HumanHarlan “The Adolescence of Technology” by Dario Amodei — https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1h 16m

  7. JAN 27

    Q&A: Is Liron too DISMISSIVE of AI Harms? + New Studio, Demis Would #PauseAI, AI Water Use Debate

    Check out the new Doom Debates studio in this Q&A with special guest Producer Ori! Liron gets into a heated discussion about whether doomers must validate short-term risks, like data center water usage, in order to build a successful political coalition. Originally streamed on Saturday, January 24. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Cold Open 00:00:26 — Introduction and Studio Tour 00:08:17 — Q&A: Alignment, Accelerationism, and Short-Term Risks 00:18:15 — Dario Amodei, Davos, and AI Pause 00:27:42 — Producer Ori Joins: Locations and Vibes 00:35:31 — Legislative Strategy vs. Social Movements (The Tobacco Playbook) 00:45:01 — Ethics of Investing in or Working for AI Labs 00:54:23 — Defining Superintelligence and Human Limitations 01:02:58 — Technical Risks: Self-Replication and Cyber Warfare 01:19:08 — Live Debate with Zane: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Strategy 01:53:15 — Marketing Doom Debates and Guest Outreach 01:56:45 — Live Call with Jonas: Scenarios for Survival 02:05:52 — Conclusion and Mission Statement Links Liron’s X Post about Destiny — https://x.com/liron/status/2015144778652905671?s=20 Why Laws, Treaties, and Regulations Won’t Save Us from AI | For Humanity Ep. 77 — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUX00c5x2UM Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    2h 9m

  8. JAN 20

    Taiwan's Cyber Ambassador-At-Large Says Humans & AI Can FOOM Together

    Audrey Tang was the youngest minister in Taiwanese history. Now she's working to align AI with democratic principles as Taiwan's Cyber Ambassador. In this debate, I probe her P(doom) and stress-test her vision for safe AI development. Timestamps 00:00:00 — Episode Preview 00:01:43 — Introducing Audrey Tang, Cyber Ambassador of Taiwan 00:07:20 — Being Taiwan’s First Digital Minister 00:17:19 — What's Your P(Doom)? ™ 00:21:10 — Comparing AI Risk to Nuclear Risk 00:22:53 — The Statement on AI Extinction Risk 00:27:29 — Doomerism as a Hyperstition 00:30:51 — Audrey Explains Her Vision of "Plurality" 00:37:17 — Audrey Explains Her Principles of Civic Ethics, The "6-Pack of Care" 00:45:58 — AGI Timelines: "It's Already Here" 00:54:41 — The Apple Analogy 01:03:09 — What If AI FOOMs? 01:11:19 — What AI Can vs What AI Will Do 01:15:20 — Lessons from COVID-19 01:19:59 — Is Society Ready? Audrey Reflects on a Personal Experience with Mortality 01:23:50 — AI Alignment Cannot Be Top-Down 01:34:04 — AI-as-Mother vs AI-as-Gardener 01:37:26 — China and the Geopolitics of AI Chip Manufacturing in Taiwan 01:40:47 — Red Lines, International Treaties, and the Off Button 01:48:26 — Debate Wrap-Up Links Plurality: The Future of Collaborative Technology and Democracy by Glen Weyl and Audrey Tang — https://www.amazon.com/Plurality-Future-Collaborative-Technology-Democracy/dp/B0D98RPKCK Audrey’s X — https://x.com/audreyt Audrey’s Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audrey_Tang Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate. Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

    1h 52m
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Ratings & Reviews

4.3
out of 5
16 Ratings

About

It's time to talk about the end of the world. With your host, Liron Shapira. lironshapira.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Liron Shapira
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    135
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Liron Shapira
  • Show Website
    Doom Debates

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