(00:00:15): Welcome to The Chair. (00:00:16): I'm your host, Dr. Vicky James Wren. (00:00:18): And today we're having a quick look at the Australian election and our Labor's (00:00:21): leading in the polls by about 10 points. (00:00:25): But what that really means is if they lose five, it's going to be 50-50. (00:00:27): So 45 to 55 for Labor. (00:00:28): Now, Australia is in trouble. (00:00:36): the economy is going to have and look the imf said this quite a few years ago uh 10 (00:00:41): years of declining living standards so now labor has gone from a couple of a couple (00:00:46): of surpluses for the last few years now it's running going to go straight back into (00:00:50): deficits and that money is going to be going into health care (00:00:55): renewables, education, and the biggest one, of course, defense. (00:01:02): Why, of course, I'm not really sure why, of course, but housing is also big. (00:01:07): Medicare, so giving better medications and so forth. (00:01:12): All that's going to come under (00:01:14): conflict with the Trump administration's policies towards Australia and as I said (00:01:18): with the aluminum or aluminium as the Australians say that's going to be (00:01:24): problematic as well look it's very small percentage of GDP but you know it's the (00:01:27): compound effect of all of the tariffs and the effect of the tariffs on other (00:01:33): countries which trade with Australia and that's primarily China of course (00:01:37): And so the boom, (00:01:38): sort of the mini boom, (00:01:40): let's say, (00:01:40): that's been going on with minerals, (00:01:41): you know, (00:01:42): there was a really big boom back in the 90s and 2000s, (00:01:45): but that's over. (00:01:46): But in the last few years, (00:01:47): there's been another boom as China's economy has switched into the new productive forces, (00:01:53): EVs, (00:01:53): of course, (00:01:54): and solar panels and so forth. (00:01:55): And now Australia is also transitioning and they rely on China for that. (00:02:00): There's nowhere else they're going to be able to get this, (00:02:03): you know, (00:02:03): affordably, (00:02:03): so good, (00:02:04): fast and cheap, (00:02:05): right? (00:02:06): So that is the permanent dilemma the Australian government is in, (00:02:09): balancing their security arrangements with the Americans, (00:02:11): with their trade relationship with China. (00:02:14): Now, (00:02:15): China is far and away the biggest trade partner of Australia, (00:02:19): and the budget doesn't really mention that, (00:02:23): according to all of the information that I've been able to access. (00:02:26): And you can read this in the ASEAN Chair. (00:02:29): ASEAN Chair that has released... (00:02:32): once a week there's updates on that there are other updates daily you can check (00:02:36): daily but what we're looking at here is a very difficult election look I think (00:02:41): Labor's probably going to win it I'll call it and say they're going to win but it (00:02:44): look it could be very very narrow win and it's possible that the Greens may hold (00:02:48): the balance of power or the teals as well which is you know young educated urban (00:02:52): elites may hold the balance of power in the Senate and (00:02:57): And an unlikely outcome, (00:02:58): but possible outcome, (00:02:59): is that they may hold the balance of power in the House as well. (00:03:02): That is not good because, (00:03:04): as we can see, (00:03:05): it's happened in Europe with all of the political turmoil in Europe. (00:03:09): Weak coalitions just cannot hold against the tariff and Trump effect. (00:03:16): And so I think that's also true here in Australia. (00:03:20): So one has to look very, very carefully at that. (00:03:23): So if you're voting, just keep that in mind. (00:03:27): Donald Trump really was asked the other day about AUKUS and he had to ask the journalist, (00:03:31): what does that mean? (00:03:32): He didn't really know. (00:03:33): Now, (00:03:33): it doesn't mean he doesn't know about submarines and he doesn't know about (00:03:35): Australia's importance to the American security framework, (00:03:38): you know, (00:03:38): forward posture into Asia. (00:03:40): And that's what it is, forward posture. (00:03:42): You know, (00:03:43): I'd be very, (00:03:44): very worried about listening to John Anderson's podcast and YouTube channel where (00:03:50): he interviewed the former Home Affairs Minister of Australia and they (00:03:54): They were talking about a tyrannical China and Australia can't live with a China (00:03:58): like that and so forth and so on. (00:03:59): But this is absolutely not true. (00:04:00): Look, (00:04:00): China is not in any way interested in invading Australia or taking over Australia (00:04:07): or anything else. (00:04:08): What China is interested is stability. (00:04:10): And Australia needs to be in stability as well. (00:04:13): And the greatest source of instability in the world today is the United States. (00:04:17): So this security arrangement... (00:04:18): and the exorbitant, (00:04:20): and I mean ultra-exorbitant cost of these submarines, (00:04:23): which is basically just three really old Virginia-class American submarines based (00:04:28): out of Western Australia and possibly some others based out of Wollongong or south (00:04:32): of Sydney on the East Coast. (00:04:34): uh i mean they're just american submarines being based out of australia uh there's (00:04:38): technical upgrading and all that sort of thing for the australians so nuclear (00:04:42): energy and things like that and the liberals uh you know the opposition they're (00:04:46): promoting nuclear energy which is really not going to work very well but there is (00:04:50): concerns of course about the (00:04:52): the grid and being able to give stable enough energy and low cost for consumers but (00:04:57): stable enough energy for you know the AI wave that's happening right now. (00:05:02): Huge data centers need really reliable power and they quite often need enormous (00:05:08): water resources for cooling and that means being able to build desalination plants (00:05:13): in Australia's case because water is something Australia does not have a lot of. (00:05:17): Now, let's think about China and its Australian exports. (00:05:21): Australia is going to maintain and to get growth because it's anemic at the moment. (00:05:27): To get growth, Australia is going to have to have a better relationship with China. (00:05:31): And so the Trump tariff effect and... (00:05:34): the new cabinet that he has, (00:05:37): Hegseth as a military defense secretary, (00:05:41): Marco Rubio, (00:05:42): who's, (00:05:42): you know, (00:05:43): basically a neocon, (00:05:45): totally anti-China. (00:05:47): He's going to try and play Philippines. (00:05:48): He's going to try and play Taiwan. (00:05:50): But Australia cannot be falling into that. (00:05:52): Now, Albanese, he has, and his government has... (00:05:55): navigated a careful path along that line, (00:05:58): but how much further they can go is going to be difficult. (00:06:01): But look, (00:06:02): I can see right now that although public opinion is not really changing (00:06:08): definitively toward China, (00:06:12): mainly because of the Rupert Murdoch News Corporation effect, (00:06:15): which dominates Australian media to an extraordinary amount, (00:06:20): And the idea that the ABC, that's the national broadcaster, needs to keep a measure of balance. (00:06:27): But it's not really watched by most Australians. (00:06:31): The mediascape is still anti-China and I think that's the next step that has to change. (00:06:36): But Twiggy Forrest, (00:06:37): one of the richest men in Australia who owns enormous iron ore mines in Western (00:06:43): Australia and made his fortune in the iron ore to China trade and is still doing (00:06:48): very well with that, (00:06:49): has just succeeded in suing Meta or Facebook for things related to using his image (00:06:56): uh for scams so online scamming being run by facebook and not just in australia but (00:07:03): globally uh and as it puts that puts a very bad light on on the scams that have (00:07:09): been reported all the time in cambodia and thailand and other places uh and uh so (00:07:13): many indians uh but most recently uh been caught up in that not so many chinese um (00:07:19): but twiggy forest action in america and against meter where he's uh he's won (00:07:24): I don't know what the final ruling will be, (00:07:27): but this tells us that the media interference in Australia is to a really abnormal (00:07:32): level and basically is always or has always been anti-China. (00:07:36): And once that chain is broken, (00:07:39): once Rupert Murdoch's news corporation is not able to operate and that Meta is (00:07:45): finally sort of pushed into a free speech and no scamming, (00:07:50): well then possibly... (00:07:52): Possibly we might find that the Australian electorate might start to believe that (00:07:58): being friendly with China is in their best interest. (00:08:00): And they used to think that prior to 2015. (00:08:03): But, you know, it's a Morrison government, the Liberals and Morrison changed that. (00:08:09): And so, let's get back to the election. (00:08:14): Despite the media, (00:08:15): let's say, (00:08:16): imbalance in Australia, (00:08:18): Labour has been careful to navigate, (00:08:20): and that's historically been their case. (00:08:22): They've always been pro-Asia, not just pro-China. (00:08:26): You remember that Japan and South Korea are also very big markets for Australian exports. (00:08:30): ASEAN is growing. (00:08:32): There's a huge contingent of Australians in Vietnam and Cambodia and Thailand. (00:08:36): trying very hard to build Australian businesses and education and health and (00:08:39): services and so forth. (00:08:41): And that's probably a goo
