The Hermit Podcast

Hosted by Alejandro Yela

Welcome to the Hermit podcast, a place dedicated to unearthing 10x investing ideas Our podcast is a collection of interviews with the key management of underfollowed publicly listed companies. Our dual goal is to give exposure to the companies and to learn from the extraordinary leaders at the helm of these ventures. www.hermitresearch.com

  1. Sep 9

    BN;CL #2: Bitcoin, Strategy Inc. ($MSTR) and Gaming

    We had another very interesting chat with Yegor from “From $100K to $1M” & More. Check out all of our previous episodes here. During the chat, we went over the following topics: * Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) & Accounting Quirks: Banter around the “Buy Now, Cry Later” brand joke, the consumer psychology of 0% interest promotions (including joking around about “girl math”), and how companies account for BNPL sales through deferred revenue, bringing future quarters forward, or monetizing user transaction data. * Bitcoin Fundamentals & Real-World Use Cases: Bitcoin viewed as “digital gold” and a store of value against fiat debasement; proof-of-work mechanics, SHA-256 encryption security, and mining energy costs (comparing hydro power in Canada vs. renewables in Germany); transaction trackability when off-ramping to fiat; and practical adoption in places like Southern Africa alongside SMS-based payment systems like M-Pesa. * MicroStrategy’s ($MSTR) Capital Structure & Debt Strategy: An analysis of MicroStrategy (Strategy Inc.) utilizing cheap convertible debt and mezzanine preferred instruments to buy Bitcoin, the risks of servicing yields when underlying cash flows are zero, and the vulnerability of holding companies to severe crypto downturns or theoretical quantum-decryption risks. * Gaming Industry Dynamics & Company Moats: * Nintendo & Console Cycles: Nintendo’s long-term moat, evergreen family-friendly IP (Pokémon, Mario, Zelda), and the strategy of pairing proprietary hardware (Switch/Switch 2) with high-profile third-party releases (e.g., Cyberpunk, Grand Theft Auto 6). * Publishers vs. Platform Holders: Why IP-only publishers face fast depreciation and must keep releasing sequels or DLC to survive, compared to console makers that control the distribution platform and generate recurring cash flow. * Other Gaming Companies: Gravity’s Ragnarok IP, activist investor pressure, and dividend payouts; TinyBuild’s founder incentives, ecosystem model, and turnaround efforts; and the impact of the upcoming GTA 6 release on Take-Two Interactive. * Trophy Assets vs. Cash-Flow Businesses: A discussion on buying sports teams (e.g., NBA franchises, Manchester United, or Wrexham) as status symbols, the “greater fool” model of flipping clubs, and potential arbitrage setups like creating European football academies for Latin American talent. * Book & Media Recommendations: * Ian Cassel’s book on his investing journey, covering wins, mistakes, and fund management. * Iain M. Banks’ Culture sci-fi series (specifically Consider Phlebas and The Player of Games), along with discussions on classic investing reads like Hedgehogging. * Research Craft & the Rise of AI: A warning against over-relying on AI summaries or shallow Substack takes instead of reading original filings and doing primary groundwork, highlighted by an anecdote about Capex quirks and local cultural practices in Eastern Europe. Hope you enjoy! Alejandro Yela This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.hermitresearch.com/subscribe

    BN;CL #2: Bitcoin, Strategy Inc. ($MSTR) and Gaming
  2. May 30

    $HRMT

    Here is a look behind the curtain at what we're building. No time for the full video? We’ve got you covered. Skip straight to the 2-minute breakdown below. Also Coming Up: In a few weeks, I’ll be hosting a live session with our incoming cohort of interns. We will be building out live valuation models (Comparable Companies, Precedent Transactions, and DCFs) and breaking down case studies in real time. Stay tuned. And feel free to start your due diligence by… From Fund to HoldCo This project marks the culmination of a decade in the trenches. After starting as an intern in 2014 and moving up to manage a family office portfolio, handle full due diligence at an M&A boutique, and run a Spanish hedge fund with an audited 16% annualized return, everything has converged onto this moment. We are expanding. We started with 13 partners in the fund; today, we are a community of over 35+ committed backers. The ultimate roadmap? Hit 100 stakeholders and take this entity public via a reverse merger. Note: This breakdown is recorded rather than live-streamed to protect the privacy of an active, confidential transaction. Capital Allocation Engines We have structured a UK-based operating company (OpCo) designed to acquire 100% of unsexy, cash-generative micro-caps and manage them from a centralized head office. This centralized framework will handle all heavy lifting, including due diligence, legal, auditing, HR, etc. Unlocking operational efficiencies, but most importantly, efficiently allocating capital. Our Reallocation Strategy Instead of hitting capacity constraints, we will dynamically shift capital across independent, decentralized engines based on where the best valuations sit: * Engine #1 (Private Ops): Sourcing private small businesses at rock-bottom multiples to compound capital at 20% to 25%. * Engine #2 (Public Markets): Opportunistic allocations in listed equities and monetary funds when public markets misprice assets. * Engine #3 (The Accelerator): Unlocked at £30m. Led by a specialized 4-man team, this engine will take 20% stakes in tech companies doing ~$1m in recurring revenue and scale them to $3m within 12-14 months. * Engine #n: There are a few additional teams we’d love to set up once we exceed £50m. More on these once we get there. Key Terms & Structure * Share Classes: Divided into A (voting) and B (non-voting) shares for maximum early-stage flexibility, merging fully upon public listing. * The Window: All core legal architecture (Shareholders & Subscription Agreements) is finalized. The initial capital subscription window officially runs from June 1st to July 31st. Leadership & Alignment Joining me on the board are two powerhouse M&A corporate veterans with over 10 years of experience across the Big Four and Spain’s top advisory firms. They are actively aiding the due diligence on our pipeline and will transition to full-time, autonomous management of Engine 1 once we cross 5 to 6 portfolio companies. Anchor Deal: Elderly Care Facility Our first proprietary deal is a textbook cash cow. A regional leader in the elderly care space operating at near 100% capacity. * Rough Numbers: Generating roughly €2.8m in revenue with stellar 29% EBIT margins (conservatively modeled at 20%), zero debt, and zero required organic CAPEX. * Arbitrage: We are buying this business at a low single-digit multiple of free cash flow via a structured earn-out and vendor financing, making it largely self-funding. Because we mark our book at a constant, conservative 8x free cash flow, this triggers an immediate, near triple-digit paper gain upon closing. * The .gov Moat: Massive regulatory barriers to entry (strict square-meter mandates, staffing ratios, and union hurdles) mean building a competitor from scratch is a bureaucratic nightmare. Meanwhile, revenues are effectively guaranteed, tied directly to inflation-protected public pensions. * Next Steps: The founding CEO is locked into a 5-year contract. He will spend the first 2 years mentoring a younger, internal successor, and the final 3 years acting as our regional expert to spearhead accelerated due diligence on additional sector-related acquisitions. Next Steps To perfectly balance our public and private pipelines, our current target is an initial £10 million capital raise. Our framework is fully visible across two years of granular, weekly performance updates dating back to June 2024, focusing heavily on circle-of-competence sectors: oil & gas, asset-backed healthcare, and cyber defense. If you have any questions or are ready to explore joining the holding company, let’s set up a time to talk. alejandro@hermit.es See you next Wednesday! - Alejandro Yela — CEO, Hermit Ventures Ltd This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.hermitresearch.com/subscribe

  3. Apr 22

    How to Value a Tech Company: $RDVT Excel Valuation Masterclass

    This tutorial provides a practical, step-by-step walkthrough for valuing a listed company, using Red Violet as a live case study. The session focuses more on the methodology of valuation than finding an exact, ‘perfect’ price, though the resulting figures proved remarkably accurate compared to the market. Find the model we used live here: And feel free to check out all of our content by… 1. The Core Valuation Methodology The tutorial utilizes a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach, projecting a company’s performance five years into the future to determine its present value. * Projection Period: The model projects cash flows through 2030. * Historical Context: Data from 2019 to the present is used to understand past trends and “normalize” numbers for future projections. * Terminal Value: This accounts for the company’s value beyond the five-year window, calculated by pushing the final projected cash flow into perpetuity using a growth rate. * Key Inputs: The instructor emphasizes five critical financial metrics that define 90% of the valuation work: Revenue, EBIT, Operating Cash Flow, Working Capital, and Net Debt. 2. Key Assumptions and Adjustments Valuation is heavily dependent on specific assumptions that must be adjusted based on the company’s risk profile and management guidance. * WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital): Used as the discount rate for future money. A standard 10% was used for this exercise, though 15% is common for smaller microcaps. * Growth Rate (G): A terminal growth rate of 2% was applied as a standard for perpetual growth. * Dilution: For tech companies like Red Violet, it is vital to account for share dilution from options and warrants. The model used a projected share count (e.g., 16 million) rather than just the current count to remain realistic. * CAPEX vs. Intangibles: Because Red Violet is a tech company with few physical assets, the instructor used “other investing activities” as a proxy for CAPEX to better reflect software development needs. 3. Data Sourcing and “Checking Your Work” The tutorial highlights the importance of data integrity when moving from raw numbers to a model. * Filing Aggregators: Tools like Ticker or Bloomberg are used to quickly pull quarterly data, though the instructor warns against using FactSet. * Manual Verification: Even when using aggregators, one must manually check yearly figures against official company filings to ensure accuracy. * Color Coding: A professional model uses specific colors to maintain clarity: Blue for manual inputs, Black for formulas, and Green for data linked from other tabs. 4. Understanding the Business Landscape Beyond the spreadsheet, a “thorough evaluation” requires understanding why the numbers look the way they do. * Business Model: Red Violet is a cybersecurity and data analytics firm that creates “digital personas” to help lenders assess creditworthiness and criminal risk. * Scalability: Tech valuations often rely on the transition from early-stage unprofitability to high-margin scalability as the company grows. * Competitive Moat: Investors must consider how protected a company is against incumbents, new players, and emerging technologies like AI. Hope you enjoy! - Alejandro Yela — Principal Advisor, Equity Focus FIL and CEO, Hermit Ventures Ltd This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.hermitresearch.com/subscribe

About

Welcome to the Hermit podcast, a place dedicated to unearthing 10x investing ideas Our podcast is a collection of interviews with the key management of underfollowed publicly listed companies. Our dual goal is to give exposure to the companies and to learn from the extraordinary leaders at the helm of these ventures. www.hermitresearch.com