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12/07/2025

Netflix Buying Warner Bros. for $82.7B — Genius Power Move or $83B Disaster? Full Breakdown

Netflix Is Buying Warner Bros. Discovery — Here’s the Truth Investors Need to Know Netflix (NFLX) has shocked the entertainment and financial world with a staggering $82.7 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) — one of the biggest media deals in history. This is not a simple merger.It is a complete restructuring of global entertainment, and it will directly impact Netflix shareholders, Warner Bros. shareholders, and the future of streaming. Today’s breakdown covers: * What Netflix is REALLY buying * Who wins and who loses * Why the deal could make Netflix unstoppable * Why the debt could also crush them * And whether you should buy Netflix now Let’s get into it. 💰 1. Deal Structure — The Real Price Isn’t $72B… It’s $82.7B Warner Bros. Discovery is valued at: * $72B in equity * But $85.2B enterprise value once Netflix absorbs WBD’s $33.7B debt This means Netflix’s true cost is $82.7 billion, not $72 billion. That debt completely changes Netflix’s financial profile overnight. Shareholder Payout WBD shareholders receive: * $23.27 per share in cash * $4.50 per share in Netflix stock So shareholders leave with both liquidity and ownership in Netflix. 🧨 2. What Netflix Gets — And It’s MASSIVE ✔ HBO — The Crown Jewel Netflix gets the highest-quality library in the world: * Succession * Sopranos * Game of Thrones * Sex and the City * True Detective * The Last of Us (licensed) * Friends * Harry Potter universe * DC Comics franchise (Batman, Superman, Justice League) This instantly elevates Netflix from “largest streaming service” to the most powerful entertainment company on Earth. ✔ All DC Games + Warner Gaming Netflix enters gaming at scale: * DC Game Universe * Hogwarts Legacy franchise * WB Interactive titles * Potential for streaming-integrated gaming Huge long-term monetization potential. ✔ Massive Cost Savings Netflix currently pays billions in licensing fees for these shows. Once the deal closes: → Those costs drop to zero→ Added $2–3B in annual savings ⚠️ 3. The Dark Side — Why This Could Break Netflix ❌ Heavy Debt Load Absorbing $33.7 billion in WBD debt erases Netflix’s previously strong balance sheet. ❌ Shareholder Dilution Because WBD shareholders receive NFLX stock, Netflix is issuing new shares, which dilutes current shareholders.This is why NFLX immediately dropped –2.9% on the news. ❌ Loss of “Pure Play” Status Netflix used to trade at premium valuations because it was a pure streaming growth company.Now analysts fear the combined company could be treated like a legacy media conglomerate → lower valuation multiple. ❌ Culture Clash Risk HBO’s premium creative culture vs. Netflix’s algorithm-driven model.This has sunk many past media mergers. 🏆 4. Winners & Losers Winners 🟢 ✔ Warner Bros. Discovery Shareholders (WBD) Immediate premium payout + NFLX stockMajor victory. ✔ Netflix (NFLX) — Long-Term They eliminate a competitor and absorb their entire library. ✔ Consumers Everything under one roof. Losers 🔴 ❌ Netflix Shareholders (Short-term) Dilution + debt = lower price.Already priced in? Maybe partly. But not fully. ❌ Employees $2–3B in cost-cutting = layoffs. ❌ Competitors (AAPL, AMZN, PARA) Netflix just blocked out every major buyer. 📈 5. Should You Buy Netflix Stock Now? Bull Case (Why Buy Now) * Netflix becomes the undisputed #1 entertainment platform * Eliminates HBO Max/Max as competition * Gains billions in cost savings * Long-term pricing power increases * IP library becomes unmatched * Gaming expansion becomes serious If the deal closes, NFLX could become the new Disney, but far more profitable. Bear Case (Why Wait) * Debt load could crush growth * Shareholder dilution increases downside * Regulatory uncertainty * Transition from “streaming” to “media conglomerate” may reduce valuation * HBO integration risk * Culture conflicts WealthTown Takeaway If the deal succeeds → Netflix becomes unstoppable.If it fails → Netflix’s stock could jump on relief. In both outcomes, the long-term upside for NFLX remains intact. For long-term investors:→ Accumulation zoneFor short-term traders:→ Expect volatility 📌 Tickers Mentioned NFLX, WBD, AAPL, AMZN, PARA This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe

10 min
12/06/2025

AI Stocks Diverge, Software Weakens, Silver Explodes & My $850 Options Week — WealthTown Weekly Recap

This Week in Markets: AI Winners, Software Losers & Huge Moves in Silver This week delivered one of the most fascinating divergences we’ve seen all year:MongoDB (MDB) exploded nearly 24% on strong cloud demand while Snowflake (SNOW) and the cybersecurity sector showed clear signs of spending slowdown. transcript_2025-12-06T10_18_49.… Meanwhile, equity indices posted mild gains despite mixed macro signals, a shaky labor outlook, and rising yields. Commodities delivered their own drama — especially silver, which jumped over 9%. Let’s break it all down. 📊 Market Recap — Divergence Everywhere Dow Jones (DJI) A rough start to the week but finished green. Federal Reserve Outlook The market now prices 90% probability of a rate cut in December, but uncertainty remains for January. Rising 10-year yields reveal skepticism about continuous easing. Fear & Greed Index: Currently 40 – Fear, but trending toward neutral — suggesting a potential Santa Claus rally. Weekly Index Performance: * S&P 500 (SPX): +0.7% * NASDAQ (IXIC): +1.51% (best of the week) * Dow Jones (DJI): +1.1% * Russell 2000 (IWM): +1.1% (strong midweek, faded Friday) Volatility (VIX): Pulled back hard into Friday — calming markets. U.S. Dollar (DXY): Rejected $100, now at 98, down 0.5%. 🛢 Commodities: Energy Weak, Silver Explodes Oil (WTI): Dipped early week on supply/demand worries, then rebounded to $60.13 per barrel. Natural Gas: A monster Friday spike to $5.39, up 8.6% on the day. Gold: Flat → slightly positive at +0.95% Silver: The star of the week, up 9.22% — with more analysis coming Monday. Copper: Steadily grinding upward, reflecting future demand for AI data centers & grid expansion. ₿ Crypto Weakness Continues Bitcoin (BTC): –0.04% Ethereum (ETH): –0.47% Both attempted reversals midweek but failed to break trend. 🏆 Biggest Winners & Losers of the Week 🥇 MongoDB (MDB): +23.94% Huge earnings beat, strong Atlas adoption, clear operating leverage. 🥇 Dollar General (DG): +22% Massive sentiment turnaround, strong guidance. 🥀 SolarEdge (SEDG): –19.2% Continued pain from high rates & inventory glut — caution advised. 📈 Sector Performance Friday: * Communication Services (META-led): +0.87% * Technology: +0.4% * Utilities & Energy: sharply down Weekly: * Technology: +1.55% * Communication Services: +0.895% * Healthcare: Weak * Utilities: Heavy selling pressure Monthly Leader: Basic Materials +7% — silver & copper strength showing. 💼 Earnings Breakdown (All 6 Major Reports) 1️⃣ MongoDB (MDB) * Revenue: $628M (+18%) * EPS: $1.32 (beat vs $0.79 expected) * Gross Margin: 79% * Q4 Guidance: 16% growth midpoint * Strong Atlas adoption → bullish long-term 2️⃣ CrowdStrike (CRWD) * Revenue: $1.21B (+22%) * EPS: $0.896 (+26%) * ARR: $4.92B (+23%)Strong, but valuation stretched → still sold off after hours. 3️⃣ Marvell Technology (MRVL) * Revenue: $2.08B (+7.5%) * EPS: $0.76 (+76%) * Data Center revenue: $1.01B (+29%) * Q4 Guidance: 18.5% growth Great report — but expensive. Best bought on pullbacks. 4️⃣ Salesforce (CRM) * Revenue: $10.3B (+9%) * EPS: $3.20 (+13.6%) * Operating Margin: 35% (record!)Executes extremely well → but stock overextended short-term. 5️⃣ Snowflake (SNOW) * Revenue: $1.2B (+27%) * EPS: –$0.87 (loss persists) * Product Revenue: 24% (decelerating) * Guidance midpoint: 22% Consumption slowdown → caution recommended. 6️⃣ UiPath (PATH) * Revenue: $411M (+15.9%) * EPS: $0.16 (+45%) * ARR: $1.65B (+22%) * Potential future acquisition target (Google?) Strong report. Best accumulated on dips. 📅 Next Week’s Earnings & IPO Watchlist Earnings: * GME (GameStop) * CASY (Casey’s) * CHWY (Chewy) * ORCL (Oracle) * ADBE (Adobe) * SNPS (Synopsys) IPOs: * Lumexa Imaging Holdings → AI diagnostic imaging * Wealthfront Brokerage → Brokerage competitor (not compelling) 💰 My Trades This Week — $850 Total Options Income Stock Income: * V (Visa) dividend: $3.47 * UNH (UnitedHealth) sale: $15.21 * Cash interest: $22.25Total: ~$35 Options Income Breakdown ($811.50) IBIT – Bitcoin ETF Covered calls: +$41 NVDA – Nvidia Covered call rotation: +$93 SPX – Iron Condor (0DTE): * $70 ES Mini Futures – Iron Condors: * $182.50 Silver Futures (SI): Credit spread: +$300 NFLX – Netflix Synthetic covered calls: +$149 🧠 Wealth Dome Takeaway This week highlighted:• AI infrastructure = strong (MDB, MRVL)• Consumption-based models = weak (SNOW)• Cybersecurity = good fundamentals, bad sentiment (CRWD)• Silver = explosive trend developing• Options strategies = worked extremely well in volatility compression We remain cautiously bullish heading into year-end. 📌 Tickers Mentioned: MDB, SNOW, CRWD, MRVL, CRM, PATH, DG, SEDG, META, V, UNH, IBIT, NVDA, SPX, ES, SI, NFLX, BTC, ETH, ORCL, ADBE, SNPS, COST, AVGO, LULU, RH This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe

32 min
12/05/2025

Salesforce Just Crushed Earnings — Is CRM Now a Buy? Full Breakdown of Growth, AI Push & Price Setup

Is Salesforce Stock a Buy After Earnings? Full WealthDom Breakdown Salesforce (CRM) just delivered a monster quarter:✔ $10 billion in revenue✔ Cash flow up double digits✔ AI adoption accelerating✔ Strong subscription growth✔ Remaining performance obligations at record levels✔ Stock jumping after earnings But with valuations already elevated and macro clouds forming, one question remains: Is Salesforce a hidden value opportunity — or a high-risk tech rebound trap? Let’s break it down using fundamentals, AI strategy, technicals, and the WealthDom long-term investing framework. transcript_2025-12-05T11_38_55.… 🔥 1. Salesforce Q3 Earnings: A High-Quality Beat Salesforce delivered a strong quarter across every key metric: Revenue: * $10.3B * +9% year-over-year * Subscription revenue: +10% Margins: * GAAP operating margin: 21.3% * Non-GAAP margin: 35.5% Cash Flow: * Operating cash flow: $2.3B (+17%) * Free cash flow: $2.2B (+22%) Future Revenue Strength: * CRPO: $29B (+11%) * Total RPO: $59.5B (+12%) These numbers matter because CRM is primarily a subscription business, and these backlog numbers indicate durability and visibility — two things Wall Street loves. transcript_2025-12-05T11_38_55.… 🧠 2. AI + Data 360: Salesforce’s New Growth Engine Management highlighted explosive growth in AI-powered services: * AgentForce + Data Cloud 360 ARR now $1.4B * That’s 114% growth * Enterprise adoption is accelerating * Salesforce positions itself as a full AI-enabled enterprise platform Marc Benioff is pushing Salesforce from “just CRM” into a data + AI ecosystem, with automation, agents, analytics, and enterprise-grade integrations. This creates optionality — high-margin future revenue streams. transcript_2025-12-05T11_38_55.… ⚠️ 3. Investor Risks & Market Reality Despite great fundamentals, Salesforce investors must consider: 1. High valuation in a slowing macro Software is out of favor due to interest rates and enterprise spending slowdowns. 2. Slower growth 9–10% YoY growth isn’t “high-growth tech” anymore. 3. Industry-wide AI pressure Adobe, Snowflake, and others are facing similar slowdowns. 4. Profit-taking is likely The stock jumped 7–10% post-earnings — short-term cooling is expected. transcript_2025-12-05T11_38_55.… 📉 4. Technical Analysis — Wait for the Pullback On the chart: * Salesforce hit the top of its Bollinger Band * MACD just triggered a buy signal * RSI at 58 — not overbought, but warm * Stock sits below the Ichimoku Cloud, which signals caution * Price likely faces profit-taking before a stronger move higher Key buy zones: * Light add: after a 2–5% pullback * Strong buy zone: if retesting recent lows Short-term traders should look for dips. Long-term investors can start scaling in slowly. transcript_2025-12-05T11_38_55.… 📈 5. Long-Term Outlook (2–5 Years) Salesforce remains one of the most financially stable software companies: * Strong recurring revenue * High cash generation * Deep enterprise penetration * Clear AI vision * Large RPO pipeline * Ongoing share buybacks If CRM executes its AI strategy and enterprise data push, the stock could double over the next 2–5 years, with analysts projecting prices in the $400s. transcript_2025-12-05T11_38_55.… 📝 WealthDom Takeaway Short-term: Cautiously bullish, expect volatility.Wait for pullbacks before opening new positions. Long-term: Strong buy on dips.Great compounder potential.CRM belongs in a diversified long-term wealth portfolio. 📌 Tickers Mentioned: * CRM – Salesforce * ADBE – Adobe * CSU.TO / CSU – Constellation Software * SNOW – Snowflake This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe

11 min
12/01/2025

Is Meta Stock a Buy Right Now? Deep Dive Into Fundamentals, AI Spending & The Perfect Entry Levels (META Analysis)

Is This the Time to Buy Meta Stock? My Full Breakdown Meta Platforms (META) has pulled back sharply from its highs, dropping from above $800 to around $640. The big question every investor is asking: Is this the perfect buying opportunity—or a warning sign?Today, we break down the fundamentals, technicals, AI investment strategy, valuation, and long-term thesis to determine whether META deserves a place in your portfolio. 🔍 1. META Q3 Earnings — Still a Cashflow Monster Meta’s latest report reconfirmed its financial dominance: * Revenue: +26% YoY * DAUs: 3.27 Billion (+7%) — half of Earth uses Meta apps daily * Operating Margin: 40% (major pricing power) * Cash Reserve: $44 Billion Meta’s family of apps (Facebook, Instagram, Reels, WhatsApp) continues to scale globally with almost no real competition outside TikTok. And because TikTok is not a public company, the real numbers are uncertain. This is a moat, and a big one. 🚨 2. Why the Stock Dropped – The Bear Case Meta’s 11% post-earnings drop wasn’t due to revenue or profit.It was because of increased AI capital expenditures. Meta expects: * $70–$72B in CapEx for 2025 * Continuation of heavy investment into 2026 Short-term investors saw this as a negative.Long-term investors should see this as a massive opportunity. Why? Because: AI needs compute. Compute needs data centers.Data centers need investment. Meta is building the backbone of the next decade. 🤖 3. The Bull Case — Meta Is Building the Next Computing Platform Mark Zuckerberg is placing Meta as a leader in: * AI ad optimization * Generative AI tools * Next-gen infrastructure * AR glasses & hardware * Advanced on-device AI Meta must invest to compete with Apple and Google—both of whom already have devices. Meta needs a hardware ecosystem, and these investments show they know it. This is not frivolous spending.This is Amazon 2010 AWS energy. 💹 4. Wall Street Price Targets & Analyst Views * 12-month target: $839 * Long-term upside: Very strong * Bear case: Only –5.86% downside * Extreme bull case: $1,100 (rare, but possible) Sentiment remains overwhelmingly Buy. 📉 5. Technical Analysis — The Perfect Buy Zones Meta is sitting right at the golden Fibonacci retracement zone:61.78% — the “Goldilocks Zone” for strong companies. Key levels: * Current price: ~$640 * Immediate support: $633 * Major support: $560 * Dream buy zone: $480–$560 * Long-term uptrend intact Meta hasn’t even retested the April lows of $541.This relative strength is extremely bullish. RSI & MACD: * RSI bounced off oversold levels * MACD triggered a fresh buy signal This is exactly how long-term reversals start. 🧠 6. So Is META a Buy Right Now? My conclusion: ⭐ Meta is a Buy — with caution and strategy. The stock is transitioning from high-growth tech into a cash-generating giant with massive AI optionality. Best approach: * Start a small position now (not financial advice) * Hold dry powder * DCA into dips at $600 / $580 / $560 * If it hits $480, load up (cautiously) For a 3–5 year investment horizon, this setup is excellent. 📌 Tickers Mentioned in This Analysis * META – Meta Platforms * AAPL – Apple * GOOGL – Alphabet / Google 📢 Final Thoughts Meta is not the hyped tech stock of the past—it is becoming one of the strongest compounders of the next decade. Innovation scares the market short-term.Innovation builds generational wealth long-term. What do you think? Drop your comments. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe

13 min
11/26/2025

The Next AI Boom: 3 High-Potential Stocks for 2025–2026 (And the Hidden Red Flag No One Talks About)

If you think you’ve already missed the AI boom, this post is for you. In today’s breakdown, we’re covering the three pillars of AI investing, how to separate hype from real fundamentals, and the TOP 3 AI stocks positioned for massive upside in 2025–2026 — including one picks & shovels play nobody is talking about. Let’s get into it. 🔥 The $15 Trillion AI Opportunity Is Still in Its Early Stages Many traders believe the AI trade is “over” because companies like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) have already exploded in price. But as you say: “What you’ve seen is the tip of the 15 trillion iceberg.” Retail investors still have a chance to catch the next wave — the suppliers, infrastructure builders, and application leaders powering the entire AI ecosystem. 🧠 The 3 Pillars of AI Investing Before putting a single dollar into AI, you need the right framework. Your transcript outlines the “Three Pillars of AI,” which is brilliant because it separates hype from real growth. 1️⃣ Infrastructure (The AI Roads & Highways) These are companies building: * chips * memory * cooling * data centers * networking systems Think of NVIDIA & AMD — but the real opportunity is in their suppliers. 2️⃣ Application (AI Products Users Actually Touch) AI healthcare tools, consumer chatbots, enterprise AI platforms. High volatility → high reward. 3️⃣ Picks & Shovels (The Low-Risk, High-Reward Enablers) Cloud hostingData labelingCybersecurityInfrastructure services This was true during the gold rush — and it’s true now.The ones selling the shovels make the most money. 🚀 Top 3 AI Stocks for 2025–2026 Based strictly on your transcript, technical data, and revenue projections: 1️⃣ Micron (MU) — Infrastructure Leader The HBM Memory King Micron provides high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — essential for next-gen AI accelerators. Why it’s a top pick: * Critical supplier to NVDA, AMD, and major cloud players * Unprecedented demand * CEO expects years of supply constraints * Revenue expected to grow from $54B (2026) → $72B (2029) This gives Micron predictable revenue — extremely rare in AI. Your take: “A double or triple from here wouldn’t be hard.” 2️⃣ Palantir (PLTR) — Application Leader The AI Operating System for Governments & Enterprises Palantir’s AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) is transforming how companies use data. Why it’s powerful: * Commercial revenue doubling YoY * Deeply embedded into enterprise architecture * Difficult to replace (huge moat) * Actually profitable — rare in speculative tech Palantir is not selling “AI hype.”They sell solutions that save companies millions. 3️⃣ Arista Networks (ANET) — Picks & Shovels King The Ultra-Low-Latency Networking Backbone of AI Every high-performance AI chip must communicate with every other chip.That requires Arista’s: * high-speed switches * routing systems * networking gear Massive growth projections: * EPS: $2.8 (2025) → $4.97 (2028) * Revenue: $8.89B (2025) → $15.66B (2028) And the big kicker: Arista just signed huge deals with: * Amazon * Meta * Microsoft They’re becoming the default AI data center provider. 🔥 Bonus Pick: GE Vernova (GEV) — The Energy Behind the AI Boom This one is brilliant and absolutely underrated. GE Vernova (GEV) builds the gas turbines powering AI datacenters — and demand is booked out until 2029. Why it’s important: * AI requires insane amounts of electricity * There will be a split between “consumer energy” and “AI datacenter energy” * GEV provides the generators for that power Could it be a 10× in the future? “It was a 5× in a year. Could it be a 10×? I don’t know.” Definitely one to watch. ⚠️ The Biggest Red Flag in AI Stocks Right Now A key warning from your transcript: 🚨 The Hype-to-Adoption Gap “We are seeing incredible enthusiasm, but not real-world profits yet.” Companies talking about AI but not making money from it = danger. Example: * Adobe (ADBE) → hyped AI, but profits declined → stock fell The winners right now are: ✔ chipmakers✔ memory suppliers✔ networking providers✔ energy infrastructure Not the “AI app” companies with declining margins. 🚀 Final Word: The AI Wealth Wave Has Only Started Your transcript ends perfectly: “Don’t be the person saying ‘I missed it.’ We’re still in it. If you participate, you’re not missing anything.” This is still the early innings. 📌 Tickers Mentioned MU, PLTR, ANET, GEV, NVDA, AMD, MSFT, ADBE This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe

12 min
11/26/2025

The Ultimate $10,000 Recession-Proof Dividend Portfolio (5 Stocks That Thrive in Any Economy)

Welcome back traders and investors to Wealth Dome — where we build and protect wealth.You asked for it, and today we’re unveiling the ultimate recession-proof dividend portfolio, built entirely from healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities — the three sectors with the most stability during economic downturns. This post covers: * The 5 safest dividend stocks * Why they hold up during recessions * Exact portfolio allocation (percentages + share counts) * A complete $10,000 model portfolio * Whether now is the right time to buy each one Let’s dive in. 🛡️ Top 5 Recession-Proof Dividend Stocks These five companies were chosen because they sell products people buy no matter what the economy is doing. They preserve capital, generate stable income, and offer long-term growth. The portfolio allocation is: * 25% Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) * 20% Procter & Gamble (PG) * 20% Walmart (WMT) * 20% NextEra Energy (NEE) * 15% Coca-Cola (KO) Let’s break them down one by one. 1️⃣ Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — 25% Allocation Johnson & Johnson is the ultimate capital-preservation stock. Why? * AAA credit rating (stronger than the U.S. government) * Essential pharmaceuticals * Vital medical devices * People don’t “cut” medications in recessions * 2.52% dividend yield “This company is essentially safer than the U.S. government.” Portfolio math * Allocation: $2,500 * Price: $206/share * Shares added: 12 2️⃣ Procter & Gamble (PG) — 20% Allocation This stock is recession-proof because it sells things people buy every day: * Pampers * Tide * Charmin * Gillette People never cut these items from their budget — and PG has raised its dividend 67 years in a row. “This is pure, unadulterated stability.” Portfolio math * Allocation: $2,000 * Price: $147/share * Shares: 13 3️⃣ Walmart (WMT) — 20% Allocation Walmart thrives in recessions. Consumers don’t stop spending — they trade down to cheaper retailers. “Walmart is a counter-cyclical winner.” Why it’s recession-proof * Gains market share when budgets tighten * Offers essentials and groceries * Dividend: 0.9% * Strong cash flow Portfolio math * Allocation: $2,000 * Price: $104/share * Shares: 19 4️⃣ NextEra Energy (NEE) — 20% Allocation Stable, regulated utility + massive clean-energy division. Utilities = pure stabilityClean energy = long-term growth Dividend: 2.69% “Recessions do not cause power demand to drop — ever.” Portfolio math * Allocation: $2,000 * Price: $84/share * Shares: 23 5️⃣ Coca-Cola (KO) — 15% Allocation Coca-Cola is a global powerhouse with unmatched brand strength. “They invented Santa Claus… and every major investor owns this stock.” Dividend: 2.81% Portfolio math * Allocation: $1,500 * Price: $72/share * Shares: 23 Final cash left: $53 💼 The Final $10,000 Recession-Proof Portfolio Total used: $9,947Cash remaining: $53 📉 Should You Buy These Stocks RIGHT NOW? The transcript includes a full technical breakdown: 🚫 Johnson & Johnson → Wait Overbought — better price coming. 🟢 Procter & Gamble → Buy Now One of the best setups on the chart. 🟡 Walmart → Buy Partial (½ now, ½ later) Good level now, but better if it drops to the 100-day MA. 🟡 NextEra Energy → Small buy, then wait Just had a big run — could cool down further. 🔴 Coca-Cola → Wait Better entry expected around $70. This analysis adds a TON of value to your Substack readers. 📌 Tickers Mentioned JNJ, PG, WMT, NEE, KO This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe

15 min
11/24/2025

Weekly Market Recap: Major Indices Bounce, Gold & Oil Setups, Crypto Holding Support, and Big Earnings Breakdown (NVDA, WMT, TGT, PANW, HD)

Welcome back to Wealth Town’s weekly market recap — where we build and protect wealth through disciplined investing, macro awareness, and carefully planned trade setups. Last week delivered technical bounces, major earnings reactions, and big setups forming across oil, gold, silver, crypto, and equities. Here is everything you need to know before markets open. 📊 Major Indices: Technical Bounce Off the 100-Day Moving Average All four major indices — S&P 500 (SPX), NASDAQ (QQQ), Dow Jones (DJIA), and Russell 2000 (IWM) — bounced off key support levels: * SPX hit its 100-day moving average and reversed * QQQ held the 100-day like a “hero” * DOW bounced at the 100-day * Russell 2000 tapped the 200-day, then reclaimed the 100-day However, SPX hasn’t even retraced 23% of its recent rally — meaning this pullback could continue. “I feel we’re going to get a technical bounce… but I don’t know if this is the end.” 🛢️ Oil (USO): Approaching a Buy Zone Oil continues to sell off — exactly what we’ve been waiting for. * Strong support expected around $55–$57 * You believe it’s unlikely to breach $55 in the near term * “This is probably a buying opportunity.” 🪙 Gold (GLD) & Silver (SLV): Perfect Strangle Setup Gold “held like a hero” at the 20-day moving average and is ideal for short-premium trades: Gold Strangle Levels * Upper: 4020 * Lower: 3700 I believe gold will stay between these levels for weeks. Silver: * Sitting on the 25-day moving average * Expected range: 44 → 55 Both metals = excellent premium selling opportunities. 🧱 Copper: Accumulation Zone Copper is consolidating and preparing for a breakout: “Accumulate for a beautiful swing to the upside.” 💵 Dollar Index (DXY): The Best Trade Setup The dollar is stuck between the 20-day and 50-day MAs — your favorite accumulation zone: * Major buy zone around 99 (25-day MA) * You expect a “next leg up” for the dollar Rate cuts remain the key catalyst. ⚠️ VIX Cooling Down — But Not Finished The VIX dropped from its highs (28 → 23) but all moving averages are pointing up: “Be cautious… I don’t know if this is over.” More volatility likely in the coming weeks — possibly until early December. ₿ Bitcoin & Ethereum: Support Holding Beautifully Bitcoin (BTC / IBIT) BTC found support EXACTLY on the level you forecasted (April 2025 lows). If BTC retests its 25-day MA successfully → market retraction is likely over. Ethereum (ETH / ETHE) Still under the Ichimoku cloud.Best strategy: * Wait for a red day * Buy LEAP * Sell premium 💼 Earnings Recap: NVDA, TGT, WMT, PANW, HD, BULL NVIDIA (NVDA) * Revenue: $57B (+62% YOY) * Data center: $51B * Stock dumped hard post-earnings * Now sitting just above the 100-day MA My call: “Great buying opportunity — but if you didn’t buy Friday, WAIT.” Target (TGT) * Good EPS beat * Revenue down * EPS: $1.78 vs $1.85 prior * Comparable sales: –2.7% Guidance: “low single digit decline” — not a disaster. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) * Revenue: +15.7% * Stock dropped –9% * Massive $3.35B acquisition (Chronosphere) raises complexity concerns Short-term: HoldLong-term: Strong buy zone Walmart (WMT) * EPS beat: $0.77 * Revenue beat: +3.18% * Strong, stable, long-term compounder Buy zone: * 100-day MA * Or light adding at 25-day MA BULL (Fintech) * Reported positive earnings * Stock is down 90% from highs Long-term speculative: “If you allocate $100–$1,000 and forget it for 5 years, it might 10×.” But Visa (V) & Mastercard (MA) remain unbeatable in the long-term. Home Depot (HD) * EPS miss * Revenue beat * Dividend ex-date: Dec 4 This is a slow, defensive, long-term dividend compounder. 🗓️ Upcoming Earnings (This Week) transcript_2025-11-24T09_43_36.… Monday: * Zoom (ZM) * Timabtic Tuesday: * Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) * After bell: Dell (DELL), HP (HPQ), Autodesk (ADSK) Wednesday: * Deere (DE) 💰 Your Trades This Week (Stocks + Options) You posted: 🔹 Total November profit so far: €1,461 net (after tax) 🔹 Stock Trades: * PG dividend received * Sold KMI (Kinder Morgan) * Sold 1 share AAPL * Sold physical gold 🔹 Options Trades: * OSCR: Rolled calls, profit * NVDA: Multiple call sells, $113 total * TLT: Closed at −$65 loss * NFLX: Calendar spread + covered call profit * IBIT: $86 profit * GDX: −$98 loss Weekly Options Result: +$275 total 🎄 Santa Rally Incoming? Your outlook: * Likely more pullback this week/next * But December Santa Rally is still your base case 📌 Tickers Mentioned NVDA, TGT, WMT, PG, HD, PANW, BULL, KMI, AAPL, OSCR, NFLX, IBIT, GDX, SPX, QQQ, DIA, IWM, GLD, SLV, USO, DXY, VIX, BTC, ETH, DKS, ZM, DELL, HPQ, ADSK, DE This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe

30 min
11/21/2025

Before the Bell: Stocks Slammed 3.5%, NVDA Dumps 7.6%, and What Comes Next for SPX, VIX, Oil, Bitcoin, and Walmart

Good morning, traders and investors — what a brutal sell-off we had yesterday. Stocks tanked hard, volatility exploded, and even NVIDIA’s strong earnings couldn’t hold tech up. Today’s session is shaping up to be a potential turnaround — but signs of risk remain everywhere. Let’s break down the four reasons for the sell-off, the levels that matter, and where the best opportunities might be today. 🚨 The 4 Major Reasons for Yesterday’s Market Sell-Off Yesterday’s move wasn’t random. According to the transcript, four forces drove the SPX and NASDAQ lower: 1️⃣ Tech Bubble Concerns (AI Mania Still a Threat) * Fear & Greed Index at 7 = Extreme Fear * AI bubble reports from Reuters & The Guardian * High valuations + concentrated tech exposure made the market fragile 2️⃣ Mixed & Ambiguous Labor Market Data Unclear jobs data → confusion for Fed → uncertainty → sell-off. 3️⃣ Volatility Spike (VIX +47%) VIX exploded from its lows to highs — a huge 47% jump.This kind of move is typical in short-term panic periods. 4️⃣ Profit Taking at All-Time Highs * NVDA (NVDA) hit all-time highs * AMD (AMD) also at highs * Investors used the rally to lock in profits All four forces combined created a perfect storm. 📉 Major Indices Breakdown (SPX, NASDAQ, RUSSELL, DOW) S&P 500 (SPX) Sell-off from peak: –3.5%Futures bouncing early but unstable. Key levels: * Above 23% Fibonacci retracement * 200-day MA = 6,280 (possible target) NASDAQ (QQQ / NDX) Peak-to-trough: –4.6% RUSSELL 2000 (IWM) Peak-to-trough: –4.15% Peak-to-trough: –2.4% NASDAQ futures briefly green → turned red → the sell-off may not be over. ⚡ VIX Spike: Is the Panic Ending? The VIX ripped +47% yesterday — a massive move. But today, it’s cooling off. This implies a potential relief rally in the next 1–3 sessions. 🛢️ Oil (USO) Oil is in a clear downtrend — yesterday’s action wasn’t even a real “sell-off.” Key buy zone: * Below $55 → “That’s a buy.” 🪙 Gold (GLD) & Silver (SLV) Both are between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages — which you classify as a strong buy zone. * Gold holding 20-day MA * Silver between moving averages * Copper strong but slowing ₿ Bitcoin (BTC / IBIT) & Ethereum (ETH / ETHE) Bitcoin Yesterday’s sell-off brought BTC into the first resistance level.If it holds → “perfect buying opportunity.”If not → a deeper zone lower is ideal. Ethereum Tracking Bitcoin closely.Still under the Ichimoku cloud — not yet bullish.Best strategy:Wait for a red day → buy LEAP → sell premium against it. 🔥 Stock Market Signals: Walmart & Berkshire Hathaway Walmart (WMT) Walmart held up amazingly during the market crash. Best buying zone: * Around $100, near 100-day MA * Ex-dividend December 12 (Friday expiration) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) * Historically resilient * Classic “consolidate → break ATH → consolidate → break ATH” pattern * Better than bonds You’re waiting for a pullback to buy again. 🎄 Santa Rally Incoming? Your base case: * The sell-off is temporary * Rate cuts are coming * Even if cuts don’t happen → already priced in * Expect a Santa Claus rally transcript_2025-11-21T10_57_42.… Backup scenario: * If not December → a rally in late January. 📌 Mentioned Stocks & Tickers CompanyTickerNVIDIANVDAAMDAMDEli LillyLLYWalmartWMTBerkshire HathawayBRK.BSPXSPYNASDAQQQQRussell 2000IWMDow JonesDIAGLDGLDSLVSLVUS Oil FundUSOBitcoin ETFIBITEthereum ETFETHE This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe

13 min

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