TexasVOCFB Best Bets — Texas vs Ohio State Best Bets 2 LIVE CALL-IN SHOW Hosts: Matthew Miller & Thomas “Tommy” Bresee Sponsor: FanDuel Show open: ~00:00 Last Week’s Record Tommy: 4-1 (argues Derek Cooper injury cost him a 5-0; “would have gotten in the end zone”) Matthew: 3-1 Consensus: Week 1 was easier to read. This week is about winning the game, not scheme tells. Host Bets 1. Tommy — Texas 1H −1.5 (~00:50) Sark has said all week Texas has not started fast vs Georgia/Ohio State and has played from behind. OSU (Arthur Smith) will feel out Will Muschamp early; Texas has more urgency. Expect a lower-scoring first half that opens later. Score lean: 14–10 or 13–10 at half. Matthew agrees: first quarter / quarter-and-a-half is feel-out time. Texas should jump it. 2. Matthew — Emmett Mosley over 34.5 rec yds (~01:55) Coleman and Wingo will be the keys. Matchup: Mosley vs freshman Jay Timmons is one of the few mismatches. Mosley was underused vs Texas State. Also likes Nick Townsend / TEs (Spencer Shannon shout). Tommy: almost a must-hit. Attention on the outside forces the middle. Lean 35+ receiving. 3. Tommy — Texas team rush over 103.5 (FanDuel ~114) (~03:27) Opened 99.5 earlier; still likes it barely over. Won’t look pretty (Texas State spit-and-sputter), but Sark has to stay on the run. Expect 20-yard bursts from Hollywood Smothers, Relique Brown, and Arch. Avoid sacks and they land 115–120. Matthew: Texas went over this vs OSU last year and should have stuck with it. Combined rush vs Georgia in those three games likely didn’t even hit this number. Between-the-tackles was dead Week 1; stretch zone, read option, Wingo end-around should work better. Matthew add-on: If they hit this number, they win pretty easily. 4. Matthew — Hollywood Smothers over 38.5 rush yds (~05:40) Surprised the number is that low. Needs 75–95 total yards (rush + rec). Projects 45–55 rushing plus checkdowns. Tommy: two or three one-on-one vs safety/corner = explosives for Smothers and Brown. Expected closer to 50. Market still figuring the Smothers/Brown split after Week 1. 5. Tommy — Arch Manning over 1.5 passing TDs (~07:15) Run game and red zone not fully fixed. Scored on 6-of-7 red-zone trips Week 1; hard to repeat without Arch’s arm. One chunk to Wingo/Coleman, one goal-line (Coleman, TE, or touch pass like last week). Slow start, then two passing TDs down the stretch. Matthew: Arch probably needs 3 total TDs (any mix of pass/rush) for Texas to win. 6. Tommy — Cam Coleman anytime TD (~08:40) That’s why they paid him. Hunt Devin Sanchez (future 1st-rounder, but early for this caliber). Even if he’s not wide open, they will keep throwing it. Could also be a decoy to move the safety and hit Wingo/Mosley opposite. Matthew: Have to feed No. 1. Same logic as OSU forcing Jeremiah Smith. Shared bet — Arch over 27.5 rush yds (~11:50) Both on it. One 20–25 yard scramble plus a few 5–10 yard keepers. Sacks are the risk; OSU has pocket-collapsers, not a Dylan Stewart/Colin Simmons-level edge. Need designed QB runs (power from gun — Josh Allen comp), read option early to freeze Kenyatta Jackson and the edges. Last year: first-half Arch stayed in the pocket and Texas struggled; third/fourth quarter when he created, they moved. More confident now. NFL-style lock if sacks stay short. Jeremiah Smith / Coverage Chess (~09:59) Tommy: Smith could match his career Texas receiving yards in the first half alone. In OSU’s few losses the last 3 years, Smith still went 100+ and scored — everyone else disappeared. Two paths: Key No. 4 or he wrecks you. Let Smith be Smith (120 and a score) and erase Devin McEwen / Chris Henry Jr. / the supporting cast. Matthew: Texas tried doubling Smith twice and got killed by Carnell Tate / Emeka Egbuka. This supporting cast is not that. Fine starting doubled and adjusting. Question of the night: can McEwen do what Tate/Egbuka did? Depth / Usage Notes (~13:57) Derek Cooper out (ankle). Interested in Michael Terry, James Simon (bigger, short-yardage), Nick Townsend, Jermaine Bishop. Bishop: one catch could be 60 and a score. Need more diverse run game: Wingo/Bishop end-arounds, not just Smothers/Brown on 3rd-and-3 inside. Last year’s dagger: Arch pick. Can he stay clean? Other Game: Michigan vs Oklahoma (~15:47) Line swing: Michigan −4.5 pre-Week 1 → Michigan −2 after kickoff → Oklahoma −5.5/−6.5 now. 8–9 point Vegas move. Tommy: Aggressive, but Michigan cannot play that poorly again. Whittingham / Jay Hill too good. Still: no QB = nothing vs Brent Venables. Bryce Underwood not there yet. Hard to see Michigan scoring more than 13–14. Matthew: Underwood’s two Hail Marys = the whole player — one sails out the back, one 65 yards off back foot while getting hit. Talent without the intricacies. “This is basically his first year.” Wouldn’t be shocked if he’s benched / not at Michigan next year; Tommy Carr next up, but not a savior. Matthew lean: Michigan +points because John Mateer throws picks in big games and the Hill defense played well. Tommy: Close to selling Underwood stock; next stop is Group of 5 if it keeps going. Caller: Caden (~19:13) — OSU/Georgia heat Long anti-Arch rant: national title / Heisman / “chosen one” talk, Georgia INTs, OSU sacks (4, “could have been 10”), Cotton Bowl relief appearance did nothing. Prediction: Ohio State 56–7 (up from 45–7 last year). Texas’ only score late or with the backup. Hosts make him take the wager: if Texas wins, Caden comes back next Thursday and apologizes to Arch. If OSU wins, hosts stop calling Arch “the chosen one.” Caden accepts. Hosts’ pushback: oddsmakers have Texas better than 50%; they’d call it a toss-up. Caden: “We ain’t losing.” CFP / G5 / Big Ten structure (~mid-show, ~36:00) Don’t give playoff spots to teams that can’t win a title. Iowa “will never win a national championship the way they currently play.” G5 only if truly one of the 12 best (Boise + Ashton Jeanty year = fine; JMU last year = no). Alternate: top 11 + one G5. Big Ten schedules are tiered: USC/Oregon/OSU/Indiana bloodbath vs Iowa/Penn State soft slates. 10–2 Iowa or PSU is not a playoff résumé; 9–3 OSU on that schedule might be a better team. Committee may not see it. ACC/Duke title-game mess cited as the “leagues are too big / schedules are broken” problem. Ohio State guest segment (Sean) (~39:20) Goosby will play (played Week 1). Matt Patricia’s D looked great vs Ball State; Wingo/Coleman/Arch are a different animal. Secondary questions: Jermaine Matthews late 2025, Devin Sanchez was a bad nickel last year (may be a good outside CB). Nickel not solidified. Agrees Mosley vs Timmons is a real look. If Patricia out-coaches Sark like last year, talent gap may not save Texas. Sark has to be better. Texas offense much improved: OL, Smothers/Brown >> Weisner/Baxter, Coleman >> last year’s Wingo role, Wingo slides to Livingston spot, Arch +1 year. OSU D lost three “aliens” (Arvel Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs — all top-13 picks). Christian Alliegro (Wisconsin) is the Styles-ish Mike; Peyton Pierce next to him. Not the same exotic flexibility. Riley Pettijohn (true soph) will play 30–50 snaps; surprise he wasn’t named a starter. Linebacker room comfortably OSU’s (Pierce, Alliegro, T.J. Alford/Pettijohn) even if Raheem Biles is the best single LB in the game. Tight ends lean Texas. Texas secondary Week 1: minor issues (Cade Phillips beat, miscommunication, new Muschamp system + Brad Jackson scrambling). Not a panic for Tommy; Matthew more worried about Phillips on Smith — wants safety help. Trusts Grayson Littleton most in man. Muschamp vs Kowalski: more man, more islands, light boxes (5–6). Explosives vs the run are the tax. Chess match of two NFL coordinators + Sark/Muschamp. Atmosphere: Not Death Valley every Saturday, but this one will be elite. Will Anderson (2022 Bama) called DKR the toughest environment he’d played in. Second-tier with OSU/Georgia; can hit the top tier. CDC renovations, cheaper experience, parking. Hottest/loudest in 20 years — 2006 OSU game comp. Kickoff heat: “100 degrees at 6:30 p.m.” Austin as a city plug. Small coaching edge to OSU, not massive. Caller: Daryl (~51:09) Picking Ohio State until Texas actually beats this matchup. “If not now, when?” Home, QB advantage, even coaching, Ryan Day 1–4 as an underdog — still needs to see it. Replace OSU with anyone but Georgia (maybe Oregon) and he’d pick Texas. That’s the 1% problem. Stakes: win and you’re a lock for the CFP / top-4 seed (bye’s value debated after how byes have gone except Indiana). Lose and the mental edge flips to OSU/Georgia the next time, because conditions will never be this good again. Fan-base trust in Sark is on the line until a title or this win. Loved Coleman-Arch chemistry Week 1. Floor: 10–2 and in the field. Arch should be the Heisman favorite. Metrics they want Saturday Arch: ~65–67% (74% vs Texas State won’t repeat vs this D) Arch’s legs a factor (20–30 scramble/design) Smothers + Brown in the pass game more than Jaden Blue was in the Cotton Bowl Colin Simmons finally gets a sack vs OSU (has one vs almost everyone else) Totals / scores Market ~49.5 — Daryl thinks way too high. Lean 21–17 type game. Tommy: 27–24 Texas (in between). Slow first half, QBs find it late, maybe not over 49.5. Matthew: first to 30; 31–23 Texas. Heat + weapons = it opens. Louisville–Ole Miss pacing comp (slow, then scores). Style: Texas can win ugly or in a 42–35. Arch slinging it all night is the worse path. SEC vs Big Ten this weekend (~1:01:00) Three games. Hosts: SEC 2–1. Lean Oklahoma over Michigan Lean Mississippi State (small favorite after Minnesota opened −2.5/−3.5; Kamario Taylor hype afte