Texas Longhorns LIVE 122 (TexasVOCFB) — Red River preview with Matthew Miller and Thomas Bresee. Sponsored by FanDuel. About 44 minutes. Show frame: No. 1 Texas is a 7.5-point favorite over unranked, 2-2 Oklahoma (opened 9.5, down two; up three from the offseason). Over/under 39.5, down sharply since open. Both hosts land Texas in the mid-20s, Oklahoma with one touchdown. Red River keys (0:00–15:50) Line and setup (0:17–1:30) Tommy has the spread in the 7.5–9.5 range and finds the total more interesting than the side. Market is pricing a Tennessee-style defensive game, with Texas having a little more offense but neither side expected to pull away. Matthew thinks Texas has the capability to blow Oklahoma out — they did last year without playing especially well — and can cover. How the game plays (1:37–3:30) Tommy frames it like Tennessee: Texas has the paper advantages on offense, defense, and overall profile. The job is focus and not self-inflicting extra chances. Biggest key is jumping in front early. Oklahoma’s fan base is 2-2 and licking wounds; a 10–14 point lead can quiet the Cotton Bowl fast, the way Texas fans have felt when roles were reversed. Bad teams have won this game before. Oklahoma would not be the worst team to do it. John Mateer plan (3:33–7:23) Matthew does not want edge rushers flying upfield. Goal is to make Mateer a pocket passer: he struggles reading defenses, gets sporadic, pats the ball with time, and double-clutched into a fumble at Georgia with a man open. Sacks are secondary. If Mateer throws 30 times from the pocket, Texas wins easily. Paths for Oklahoma are few. The worry is Texas shooting itself in the foot. One turnover is survivable; a 3–0 turnover loss probably is not, and it would still be close because the Oklahoma offense is anemic. Tommy agrees: keep him in the pocket and make him beat you as an NFL passer. Expect overthrows and safety picks. Two things that can kill Texas are Mateer’s legs and Isaiah Sategna after the catch. Collapse the pocket everywhere except Michael Fasusi, similar to Tennessee’s line outside David Sanders. Rush lanes matter — no over-pursuit, no missed tackles. Early sacks or a pick and Oklahoma fans start chanting for the backup, which adds another layer. Do not hand them answers. Poke holes early at quarterback, line, and the offense as a whole. Oklahoma weapons (7:24–9:01) Only real threats: Sategna and tight end Rocky Beers. Beers is the best tight end Texas has faced (Tennessee’s tight end is hurt; Ohio State, UTSA, and Texas State did not test that matchup). Linebacker/safety coverage is a real question. Oklahoma’s run game has been poor since Lincoln Riley left. Lloyd Avant and Xavier Robinson are Trey Weiner-type backs — fine, not scary. Clean game (turnover-free, penalty-light) and Texas wins by 10-plus. Better team in every sense unless Oklahoma’s line plays at a peak and Beers/Sategna hit one or two explosives. That path shows up maybe once in 100 simulations. Rivalry history and Sark vs. this defense (9:02–11:45) When Texas is the underdog it usually overperforms; Oklahoma as a legitimate underdog has beaten Texas once in Matthew’s lifetime (the Dillon Gabriel year, about a 4.5-point dog). Tommy cites a stat that this is one of three times the No. 1 team has been less than a 10-point favorite over an unranked team; the other two favorites covered comfortably. Sark has scored on this defense: last year was the worst offensive day and Texas was still efficient enough (Arch accurate, ran it enough); 30 in a loss, 49 in a blowout, 34–3. Offensive line is veteran and should hold up better against David Stone than against a twitchier Xavier Gilliam type. Do not give anything in special teams — that is what put last year’s game away, and Sategna can flip it. Tennessee special teams were the worst unit in that game. Oklahoma’s run defense is around 40th, lower than usual, with more openings. What Matthew wants schematically (11:46–13:08) More outside zone. A&M and Oklahoma struggle with it because they slant the line late. Texas has lived in duo and inside runs this year. He wants Sark more versatile week to week, not locked into an offseason run menu. Up-tempo early to help Arch. Ryan Wingo screens two or three times — used late last year, barely this year, one nice gain on the final Tennessee drive. Oklahoma is still a legitimate top-12 defense. Expectation is a Texas win in a weird game. Predictions (13:09–15:50) Tommy: 27–10. Oklahoma finds the end zone once. Arch needs a swagger moment — deep ball (Mississippi State to Wingo last year) or a sideline run like the one he slid and waved on a year ago. Ohio State comeback had the Wingo touchdown but no massive throw or run. Curious whether Sark alters the plan because Arch may not be the pure pocket executor every down. Comfortable win, more confidence in the offense leaving than arriving. Matthew: 24–13. Hopes the Oklahoma touchdown comes late so the “quarters without a TD” streak can stretch. When Texas is the better team, they usually win. Clip window: early lead kills the Cotton Bowl (2:27–3:29); contain Mateer, don’t hunt sacks (4:00–4:38); Sategna and Beers are the only real threats (7:26–7:57). October and future opponents (16:08–24:15) Tommy’s month theme: stop the run (16:15–17:17) Oklahoma should be stoppable. Then Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri. Put the game on the quarterbacks. Trinidad Chambliss can handle it. Kamario Taylor and Austin Simmons will make plays. If the run isn’t slowed: Jaden Baugh eats, Kewan Lacy has a day, Mississippi State’s wide offense hits explosives, Missouri’s run game is a nightmare. Stop the run for five or six weeks and Texas can be on a six-game streak toward 12–0. Matthew: score on bad defenses (17:19–19:38) None of the next defenses are top-25 units in his view. Florida’s front four is good, secondary is not. Ole Miss has one real difference-maker (Will Echols); take him out and there is little else. Missouri has not had defensive talent since the Cotton Bowl win over Ohio State. LSU is the best of the group and only fine, maybe top 20. After Oklahoma, one top-20 defense in the next six or seven games. This roster should be a top-10 offense. Thirty points a game plus this defense wins all of them. Kamario is scary only if he is perfect — Alabama showed the defense is horrid. Texas can hit 40 on Mississippi State (did last year, in OT; defense is the same level, offense better but not worlds better). No remaining team is flat-out better except a possible LSU debate later. Missouri shutting down Baugh and boat-racing Florida proved the point: take Baugh out and Buster Faulkner’s offense loses the gimmicks. How those defenses will play Arch (19:39–21:14) Florida and Ole Miss will not be good on the back end. Front-seven athletes (Echols, Suntarine Perkins; Jaden Woods and Florida’s front) will heat Arch for four quarters and force quick, accurate throws and yards after catch. Six-man pressures leave five on the back end. It comes down to Arch getting the ball out faster and taking what is there. All of these defenses are attackable. Road form (21:15–22:03) Trips to A&M, LSU, and Missouri. Two of three should be top-20 when Texas arrives. Road results have not been good (Tennessee this year, Ohio State and other SEC trips last year). Hardest games other than LSU are at home, which helps. He would not want the Swamp or Ole Miss on the road this year. Austin Simmons (22:04–24:15) Missouri’s loss this weekend changed the framing. A path existed for No. 5 vs. an unranked, wounded Missouri. Now it can be a program game that sends Missouri toward the CFP. Jamal Roberts and the run game are real, and Simmons can beat you if he stands in and works through reads — unlike Boo Carter a year ago. Chambliss can beat you alone. Kamario can do incredible things with time. Simmons is the one getting too little credit. Matthew ranks him as the third-best quarterback left on the schedule behind the two Mississippi quarterbacks, and the one he worries about most because Missouri’s line is much better. Pure athlete scare ranking: Chambliss, then Kamario (40 on you any Saturday if you give him time). Kamario may have been nursing turf toe; Mississippi State gets a bye. Confidence check-in, rest of schedule (24:26–37:45) Scale is confidence Texas wins. Matthew corrects his Ole Miss number on air (he had said 7, meant 5.5). Game Matthew Tommy Why Oklahoma 7.5 7 Better everywhere except maybe Tate Sandell at kicker. D-line debatable; Colin Simmons tips it. Energy of the game caps it. Avoid mistakes, stay ahead of the chains. Florida (home) 6 6.5 Dominated by Missouri; Swamp would be lower. Win path is taking Baugh out of the game the way Missouri did (12 carries). Not just stopping the run — forcing them to stop handing it to him by getting up 14–21. Ole Miss 5.5 6.5 Harder than Florida. Average SEC QB and this drops to 3–4. Chambliss plus a healthy Lacy is the scariest QB-RB tandem in the country. Guy-for-guy Florida may be better outside those two. Tommy: you will not hold Chambliss for four quarters; need 28–34. He got them going down 10 at Florida without Lacy. Mississippi State 8.5 7.5 Defense is abysmal. Kamario has to be perfect and healthy, and that still may not be enough. Bothwell hurt for this game. Tommy puts the offense next to Tennessee’s. Keep Kamario uncomfortable; score 28–30. Missouri (road) 6 6 Road, likely night, first trip since old Big 12 days. Simmons can get hot; their defense can bother Arch. Hardy’s status unknown; Roberts is enough. They just shut down Florida’s run game, and Texas does not run it better than Florida. If Florida had won there, confidence would be higher. LSU (road) 5 ~5, preseason loss still stands Lowest mark. Hardest place to play, packed if LSU is i