Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

fiftyfacespodcast
  • 0.0 (0)
  • Business News
  • Updated Weekly

A weekly discussion of markets, world politics and what it means for your investment portfolio. Banter. Not investment Advice.

  1. Aug 13

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Aug 13, 2026 - Earning Their Keep - with special guest Simon Evan-Cook

    In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast I am joined by Simon Evan-Cook, a Multi-Asset Fund Manager at Downing Fund Managers who writes the Fund of Funds Insider column for Citywire. He was previously a AAA-rated fund manager, winning multiple investment awards, including four prestigious ‘Fund Manager of the Year’ titles. Today we reflect on a week that has revealed much about a few split screens that we are seeing in markets. On the inflation side there is the split between inflation expectations, which have been low, the headline numbers which are still subdued and the rising commodity prices including oil. There is a split screen around market volatility too - relatively low overall market volatility, that has seemed to be muted on the overall market side, while it has been accentuated within individual sectors - e.g. semiconductors have been 5x as volatile as the general market. Besides reflecting on economic vibes, particularly as they relate to the UK and the dependence on real estate and housing prices, we also discuss the importance of the recent Yen intervention and what it reveals about the global market system, as well as the outlook for Japan. Moving to broader portfolio construction, Simon admits his preference for equities and how he approaches portfolio construction. He is watching from the sidelines on private credit, and we discuss how some of the muddy waters surrounding that sector have been showing in the trading price of these companies. Their defaults may be subdued but their watchlists tell another story.

  2. Aug 6

    Markets Happy Hour - In the Mountains - August 6, 2026 - Trips to Nowhere

    In this week's abbreviated Markets Happy Hour podcast we discuss the Trip to Nowhere that the on-again-off-again hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have created. Coming to you live from the mountains we reflect on inflation movements and the divergence with inflation expectations, as well as the bond market's persistent skepticism regarding Fed policy and the fiscal security of various developed markets. Equity markets have been positive for Europe year to date and earnings and revenues have been strong across the US, Europe and Asia, while venture capital returns have come under the microscope with the sale of Air Table to Bending Spoons.

  3. Jul 30

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast July 30, 2026 - 9, 3 and Pleading the 5th

    In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss the split US Fed as they look to the next direction of interest rates. We also touch on the devastation caused by the wildfires across Europe so far this summer - and ask about their impact on policy, productivity and morale. Moving back to market forces, we remain pretty much where we were already with the state of geopolitics and the Strait of Hormuz - we have had a halt to hostilities then an outbreak again. The oil price remains the most hard hit asset and has swung around fairly notably in the past week. All of this adds "fuel" to the inflation worry, which bond markets seemed to take seriously this week. The split Fed and the lack of direction - deliberately - under the new chairman left a rather sour taste, with bond market selling off. This deliberate lack of telegraphing and the Fed itself almost "Taking the Fifth" went down like a proverbial lead balloon and it is interesting to ask if there will be an erosion of trust and therefore a sundering of the link between the Fed and the bond market that it may seek to influence. Other economic vibes percolated, particularly around Europe where on the one hand old industries like German carmakers, continued to struggle, while there was some surprising pockets of growth - such as among German start-ups, while defence stocks continued to perform well. Sovereignty is increasingly a buzzword when it comes to AI - whether at a corporate level - where there is increasing reticence around giving up the proprietary layer IP to a frontier model, such as by feeding it to Claude. This was first raised by Alex Karp of Palantir, reinforced by Satya Nadella of Microsoft and now increasingly in evidence as the frontier model labs roll out everything from design studios to their own drug development channels. Sovereignty is in issue too within Europe where countries have started to reject the use of Palantir and to "urgently" seek national champions due to security concerns with the uniformity of this software. The rise of French company Mistral as an Open AI competitor, while the other French AI company ChapsVision is emerging as the European competitor to Palantir and the French authorities announced in June that they would replace Palantir after a period of transition. Equity markets were unsettled, with some chartists suggesting that the fall in the Magnificent 7 was a sign that they were losing their place in the sun, replicating how the FAANGs had fallen out of favour after 2018-2019. This rotation out of tech had favoured European indices with some commentators suggesting that they are now the anti-tech index. - is this a good or a bad thing thought? For investors seeking to diversify their portfolios it is surely a good thing - not every company will be a tech company will they? In other news prediction markets are now not optimistic on an OpenAI IPO even in 2027. Times are changing.

  4. Jul 23

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast July 23, 2026 - Life Support

    In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we focus in particular on some of the other economies outside the US, with a look at how markets are reacting to the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years and ask who is the new “sick man” of Europe. Starting with what might be deemed to be inflation’s deep fake moment – the false dawn of June’s low number, we ask what is to come if oil price induced inflation breaks out in the second half of the year. The oil price is in now in overdrive, having surpassed $100 per barrel today, a sharp reaction to not only the reignition of the kinetic clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, but the report of low inventories on a global scale and a clear surging demand for energy has led to expectations of higher prices by the end of December. For the moment central banks have been minded to pause on interest rate hikes – a policy across the UK, the US and the ECB for now. Within equity markets the divergence of some sectors continues – although semi-conductors have recently given back some of their gains with a sharp reversal in momentum. Financials have been surging as trading volume and corporate transactions rise, while single stock volatility continues to be an issue after the IBM earnings report. We discuss other drivers of volatility such as the increasing level of retail participation in markets which seems to lead to exacerbated momentum. This is also a development in Asia – the exception is Europe, which has low retail participation and where the equity markets represent an ever smaller percentage of global volumes. While this is a sorry indictment of the state of the equity markets in Europe, it does mean that momentum stocks have been more volatile.

  5. Jul 16

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 16, 2026 A Budget Summer

    This week's podcast comes from a somewhat downbeat London after the exit of the England team from the World Cup semi-final last night. It was a tough loss - particularly poignant as the atmosphere had been so electric in London last night. Starting with inflation, the surprisingly low number in June reflects the fall in the oil prices, which continues to be very leveraged to geopolitical news. This is despite expectations actually being higher - per the headline from last week. The oil price is continuing to reflect the low inventories in oil, which are noted to be historically low. The expectation around interest rates is shifting as inflation shifts downwards, although based on the oil price sensitivity this could be premature. There is a fascinating rotation taking place in equity markets - whereby small-cap companies are seeing a strong underpinning of demand - even the negative earning companies. This suggests that there is an ability to see through the hype and to identify potential in smaller companies - at their early growth stage. Other notable trends include the financial sector which has performed exceptionally well as the volume of trading has increased and M&A activity. The economic outlook is bright with a smaller expectation of US recession probability - indicating a buoyant economic outlook sparked by lower inflation and strong earnings. The sharp drop in IBM stock was a telling development - as it was clear from their statement that they were experiencing consumers making choices away from their products in favour of AI expenditure. This could be a harbinger of other choices are likely to make, indicating that pockets are not unlimited and deep. The explosion of complex derivatives, including levered ETFs on single stocks is jolting volatility in markets such as Korea, and as the chart below shows the assets in such instruments have really grown.

  6. Jul 9

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast July 9, 2026 - Deja-Vu All Over Again

    In this second podcast of the week we are joined by Adam Berger, Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington. Our conversation reflects on the fact that many of the current news items seem very like "deja-vu" - the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the spike in the oil price, the return of the heat wave. We cycle through our usual five topics and reveal some surprising points of view on inflation, as well as the risks in equity markets. The views expressed are those of the speaker(s) and are subject to change. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. For professional/institutional investors only. Your capital may be at risk.

  7. Jul 8

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 8, 2026 with special guest Jens Backes in person in Barcelona

    **NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE AND DOES NOT CONTAIN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS" This week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a little bit different . . while we still bring you a market overview together with an outstanding guest, this time we are exploring how good some of the AI models are at picking stocks, building portfolios and deciphering equity market narratives. Guest Content Disclosure: This presentation was prepared by Jens Backes, an independent guest speaker, and reflects Jens Backes' opinions as of the presentation date. Moneta has not independently verified the information presented. For educational discussion purposes only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Jens Backes is a former McKinsey consultant with an expertise in telecoms, based in Barcelona, where we recorded this episode. Since October of last year he has challenged 3 models plus his own Alphabot JB to pick 10 stocks to generate the best total return over 5 years. The results are intriguing. From Open AI's portfolio which has gone all in on every aspect of the AI value chain, to Claude which prefers to own tolls and not the road (whatever that means) each model has gone in its own unique direction and not all have beaten the index. We discuss what we can learn from these models in terms of persistence of market narratives and the unexpected winners that can come from such a highly concentrated portfolio. All examples are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to represent all investment decisions or results achieved for client accounts. Client results will vary based on account objectives, restrictions, timing, fees, and market conditions.

  8. Jul 2

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast July 2, 2026: Tight Lips; Stopped Ships

    In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by special guest Roy Kuo, CIO of Galilei Investment Office, and we dive in to a sweeping discussion across global markets. Our conversation starts with a mixed inflation number, whereby consumer prices are driving the sustained inflationary level more than the energy prices, although as one of our charts shows, gasoline prices remain far stickier and less responsive to geopolitical news around the Strait of Hormuz. While jobs numbers continue to be a little sideways, the most recent employment number reflecting a small fall off in employment numbers, but when taken alongside the previous months positive numbers the effect is expected to be marginal. Mortgage rates remain high, which will put pressure on the lower end consumer, although Roy did not expect interest rates to place a stay on economic activity. Moving to equity markets we have just closed the strongest quarters for the Nasdaq and the S&P since 2020, while in contrast Microsoft has seen its worst month since 2020, and gold has seen its worst quarter in 13 years. We turn to the conversation around the frontier models and their relative role compared to the suppliers of compute as well as the proprietary layers, and reference a somewhat memorable recent CNBC appearance of Alex Karp of Palantir who has "said the quiet part out loud" when it comes to the tense relationship between the providers of the frontier models and the companies using them and supplying their data. We finish with another reflection on Alan Greenspan, as Roy's views on his legacy have changed over the years, as he notes. He believes that the damaging effects of the moral hazard created by the Greenspan put are continuing to be felt and that it is leading to a far more risk seeking type of market behaviour.

See All (100)

About

A weekly discussion of markets, world politics and what it means for your investment portfolio. Banter. Not investment Advice.

Information

You Might Also Like