Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

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A weekly discussion of markets, world politics and what it means for your investment portfolio. Banter. Not investment Advice.

  1. 4d ago

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast September 10, 2026 - Featuring Joseph Little of HSBC Asset Management

    In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by HSBC Asset Management Global Investment Strategist and “market storyteller” Joe Little. A legendary force on Linked IN, we were delighted to feature his insights here for 30 minutes. We start with picking apart the prevailing narratives and counternarratives that continue to course through markets driven on the one hand by last week’s positive employment number in the US and ask whether these stats can be relied upon as much as ever. Narratives differ of course, with the rise of populist politics in the Germany framed as a reaction to a perceived “dark place”. We ask whether the resilience in markets – whether to the oil price, geopolitics or tariff newschatter – is due to a fundamental lower reliance on these things – a diversification of causal factors or a combination of an outsized The bond market has been getting a lot of attention as a “showdown” seems to be ongoing between Scott Bessent who has suggested that he “is the house” and can persist with the current bond market intervention. The bond market currently seems unconvinced by this suggestion and bond yield continue to gap out in global markets – most notable in the UK. Equity markets have been a bit choppier over the past few week or so and the strain of higher oil prices as well as the bond market movements have continued to introduce some uncertainty. The traditional relationship with higher bond yields would be that as bond yields rise, the equity market premium has to adjust in order to compensate for the higher risk run in equities. We turn as the last section of the podcast to Emerging Markets, which have been buoyed by strong sentiment, strong currencies and relative attractiveness of their bond yields as the dollar comes under pressure. Joe discusses the reasons for the higher bond yield and how this relates to the dollar outlook, and suggests that it is coherent. He further cites the evolution of many emerging market institutions from their crisis fighting mode into a newer state that is instilling confidence and trust – due to measures like raising rates to avert hyperinflation or maintaining independence and an even keel amid geopolitical uncertainty. This all underscores the case for diversification of portfolios, and careful rebalancing.

  2. Sep 4

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - September 4, 2026 - Full Version - Mark Tinker

    In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Mark Tinker, CIO of Tosca Fund Management in Hong Kong, and, more importantly for us here a prominent commentator and the author of two blogs - Market Thinking and This Is Not Investment Advice. In this extended (full) version of the Markets Happy Hour recording of earlier today we discuss cost-push v. demand-pull inflation and why only one can be controlled - what the REAL intention of of the Fed and Scott Bessent is, and how there is more alignment than might be assumed (hint it ties back to the hyperscalers and their ability to raise capital). We discuss the fragility of some of the AI models and the case for rotation into the second tier beyond the hyper-scalers and ask about the robustness of the current earnings wave. Just like other data is increasingly uncertain, the data we are seeing in earnings may be self-referential too - just like the AI financing boom we have been seeing. Our deeper dive version of this podcast debates the reason for the struggle of active managers in recent years as well as a thought experiment around AI financing and what is actually real using an example of the subscribers on Mark's blog.

  3. Sep 4

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - September 4, 2026 - Back to School featuring Mark Tinker

    In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Mark Tinker, CIO of Tosca Fund Management in Hong Kong, and, more importantly for us here a prominent commentator and the author of two blogs - Market Thinking and This Is Not Investment Advice. We have here an abbreviated version of our longer discussion which involved two deeper dives as set out below. This abbreviated version touches on cost-push v. demand-pull inflation and why only one can be controlled - what the REAL intention of of the Fed and Scott Bessent is, and how there is more alignment than might be assumed (hint it ties back to the hyperscalers and their ability to raise capital). We discuss the fragility of some of the AI models and the case for rotation into the second tier beyond the hyper-scalers and ask about the robustness of the current earnings wave. Just like other data is increasingly uncertain, the data we are seeing in earnings may be self-referential too - just like the AI financing boom we have been seeing. Our deeper dive version of this podcast is also listed in the same channel. In that we do a deeper dive into the struggle of active managers in recent years as well as a thought experiment around AI financing and what is actually real.

  4. Aug 27

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - August 27, 2026 - Defying Expectations

    In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast I am delighted to be joined by Anastasia Amoroso, Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at Partners Group. Our conversation starts with a traditional vibe check on the narratives and counter-narratives driving market sentiment. She speaks about a multi - engine economy growing thanks to a stable consumer, soaring Capex, spending on areas such as defence. We move then to discuss Scott Bessent's Big Bet, which is clearly that his intervention in the bond market wills stem the rise at the long end of the yield curve. Anastasia notes the difference in focus of each of the Fed and the Treasury Secretary with a focus on different ends of the curve, and notes the reason for long term yields being as high as they are - higher growth expectations, the stickier inflation, but also the sell-off by other US Treasury bond holders. Discussing geopolitics she notes the amount of oil still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and the fact that only a fraction of the trade between the US and Canada are actually affected by tariffs, and we mull over the workarounds that are likely to follow once the new realities of global trade filter through. Finally we focus on the innovation economy and the role of private equity in it - noting the uptick in flows into private equity so far this year and the role that private equity investors are likely to play in driving innovation within their portfolio companies. In conclusion we note the passing of music legend and philanthropist Dolly Parton and how she defied expectations, leaving you with her immortal words "Find out who you are, and do it on purpose" .

  5. Aug 20

    Special Bonus Markets Happy Hour Podcast - A European Lens - with Charles-Henry Monchau in Geneva

    This week we have a bonus episode of the Markets Happy Hour podcast in which we feature Charles-Henry Monchau, CIO of Syz Bank, recorded on site in Geneva. I have followed Charles-Henry and his original – and sometimes provocative – takes on LinkedIN for some time and it was great to gather his views as summer comes to an end. Our conversation features a Europe-based lens on market events and dynamics and we begin with a discussion of the Swiss budget surplus – an increasingly anomalous feature among developed nations. We turn then to the European economic vibes and the prevailing conclusion is that earnings, growth numbers and other economic indicators are generally better than expected revealing a surprising resilience. We ask whether the sluggishness that led to many European nations not being at the frontlines of the current AI buildout may not be such a disadvantage after all. Certain nations such as France have abundant nuclear power, data centre construction is underway and policy moves to protect AI sovereignty might place local operators in a strong position. Charles-Henry points out that European companies would be well placed to see productivity gains from AI, given their relatively small size. He notes the earnings bull market in Europe which could be enough to push markets higher. We discuss how Europe benefits from global trade and also how its dependence on US services is very different from 2008. The weakness in Europe is not just from AI but also from the European industrial base, and he notes that Europe will have to invest in itself and really focused on innovation. When discussing the USD and its recent weakness Charles-Henry argues that the US is being forced into the choice of supporting the bond market OR the currency, and like Japan has prioritised supporting the bond market, given the debt load as well as the dependence on rates within the economy.

  6. Aug 20

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast August 20, 2026 - A Ferocious Ferragosto - with guest Anwiti Bahuguna

    In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Anwiti Bahuguna Co-CIO of Northern Trust Asset Management, who has had a long history of multi-asset investment for a range of institutional and wealth management clients. The title of the podcast refers to the "Ferragosto" phase of Eurosummer, which has been tumultuous and newsfilled, and quite ferocious bot in terms of its heat and its pace. Discussing inflation, Anwiti argues that the current AI buildout is predominantly inflationary, and we discuss how this translates into an underweight to bonds in the multi-asset programmes that she runs at Northern Trust Asset Management. The economy is fundamentally strong, which is shoring up equity markets and driving them to new highs, she stresses that the cyclical forces have been weaker while structural forces remaining quite robust. This disconnect is evident in the bond market when we compare developed markets, which in the past week have seen rates gap out to a 19 year high in the case of the US 30 year. We reflect on the two consecutive Fed interventions (the first one around the Yen and the second one around bond buying in the long end of the US) in the bond market as revealing as to the importance that is placed on shoring up the fixed income market (a theme echoed during our Europe-featured bonus podcast also launched today). We also ask if the initial negative reaction to the Fed communication schedule is premature - given the very early stage of the tenure of the new Chair. Anwiti suggests that any change would be received with some trepidation, and that this does not necessarily point to a Fed that is "losing the room". Turning to equity markets we strip out the tech effect and see that under Trump 2.0 equity markets have been broadly strong. This should not suggest, however, that other sectors are not exposed to AI, it does continue to underpin all sector momentum. Looking on a global level - we discuss the earnings strength on a global front, and point to the earnings growth in Emerging Markets, Europe and Japan, and look to the relatively strong performance of emerging markets as a whole. There are of course exceptions here - losers as well as winners - in particular in India, which has been hugely boosted by outsourcing recently. This has recently seen some attrition led by AI. To conclude we discuss the cracks in the current positive momentum, suggesting that both the higher yields present in hyperscaler credit as well as the hesitation regarding private credit segment all point to a healthy scepticism regarding boundless capex spend, as well as the potential for some loans to go bad. The suggests that the biggest "scorecard" for private credit is what is happening in the investment grade market and the reckoning there.

  7. Aug 13

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Aug 13, 2026 - Earning Their Keep - with special guest Simon Evan-Cook

    In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast I am joined by Simon Evan-Cook, a Multi-Asset Fund Manager at Downing Fund Managers who writes the Fund of Funds Insider column for Citywire. He was previously a AAA-rated fund manager, winning multiple investment awards, including four prestigious ‘Fund Manager of the Year’ titles. Today we reflect on a week that has revealed much about a few split screens that we are seeing in markets. On the inflation side there is the split between inflation expectations, which have been low, the headline numbers which are still subdued and the rising commodity prices including oil. There is a split screen around market volatility too - relatively low overall market volatility, that has seemed to be muted on the overall market side, while it has been accentuated within individual sectors - e.g. semiconductors have been 5x as volatile as the general market. Besides reflecting on economic vibes, particularly as they relate to the UK and the dependence on real estate and housing prices, we also discuss the importance of the recent Yen intervention and what it reveals about the global market system, as well as the outlook for Japan. Moving to broader portfolio construction, Simon admits his preference for equities and how he approaches portfolio construction. He is watching from the sidelines on private credit, and we discuss how some of the muddy waters surrounding that sector have been showing in the trading price of these companies. Their defaults may be subdued but their watchlists tell another story.

  8. Aug 6

    Markets Happy Hour - In the Mountains - August 6, 2026 - Trips to Nowhere

    In this week's abbreviated Markets Happy Hour podcast we discuss the Trip to Nowhere that the on-again-off-again hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have created. Coming to you live from the mountains we reflect on inflation movements and the divergence with inflation expectations, as well as the bond market's persistent skepticism regarding Fed policy and the fiscal security of various developed markets. Equity markets have been positive for Europe year to date and earnings and revenues have been strong across the US, Europe and Asia, while venture capital returns have come under the microscope with the sale of Air Table to Bending Spoons.

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A weekly discussion of markets, world politics and what it means for your investment portfolio. Banter. Not investment Advice.

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