Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

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A weekly discussion of markets, world politics and what it means for your investment portfolio. Banter. Not investment Advice.

  1. 7H AGO

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - February 19, 2026 - Inundated

    In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we deal with the inundation – both literal and metaphorical that markets and populations are contending with this week – whether the flooding of the zone with newsflow and the actual inundation with rain and snow and parts of Europe. We kick off with apparent evidence that inflation continues to ease – particularly in the case of the service component which is now lower. This could, of course be a further indication of the waning power of labor and indicate the source of some of the consumer discontent we highlighted last week - all in all though, inflation is subdued in major developed markets, and in the UK in particular, there was a surprise drop to 3%, leading to heightened expectations of a near-term rate cut by the Bank of England. Returning to the “calm” in fixed income discussed last week, we again refer to the diminished volatility in fixed income markets, as well as the record tight investment grade spreads, which are back to levels not seen since before the 2008 crisis. Equity markets continue to be a model of “rotation” in action, as well as shifting investor sentiment away from lavish AI expenditure. The rotations that we discussed before are in evidence still - growth to value, Mag 7 to the other 493 stocks, and from US stocks to Asian and European markets. AI expenditure is continuing to get scrutiny - and the Apple example is held up as an outlier, whereby the company has preferred to outsource its solutions to other companies while waiting on the sidelines when it comes to its own spend. We end with a discussion of geopolitics, and ask whether the same inundation that we discussed at the beginning has led to investors capacity to understand and digest developments, particularly those as severe as the building tensions between the US and Iran. We do a brief thought experiment on what this could mean for markets were it to intensify . . clearly the oil price would be affected, but it might rattle anotherwise jittery set of investors.

    20 min

  2. FEB 12

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast February 12, 2026 - Where is the Love?

    In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ask where is the love? As Valentine's Day approaches, it seems that consumers, and investors themselves are not displaying a whole lot of love for the AI and tech stocks of which they had been quite enamored not long ago. There is, similarly, a bit of a shift away not only from them but also the US as a market, as other markets such as Japan and Europe start to show their relative strengths. In the discussion of inflation we reflect on soaring food prices and how – in the US at least – this has started to affect footfall and spend at restaurants such as McDonalds and Burger King. There has been a shift in the spending from restaurants towards grocery stores. We move from discussing the K shaped economy to a new concept that Alex introduces – the W shaped economy, in which there are two key segments – those that shop at Wholefoods and those who shop at Walmart, each of whom are struggling in their separate ways. This vibe check notes the recession in consumer confidence and the fact that the labor market is no longer putting as much pressure on inflation. Interest rate expectations have moderated again, as markets have digested the announcement of the next Fed Chairman, while fixed income volatility remains very low relative to its history. Moving to equity markets, the calling cries of markets are of a US tech detox and the continuing rotation into European tech, Japanese equities value from growth and sectors such as infrastructure and financials. This is all occurring against a backdrop of “sell now, see later” whereby AI automation threats are cascading through different sectors – first SAAS and now wealth management as new intelligent tools are released at a fast pace.

    29 min

  3. FEB 5

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast February 5, 2026 - Moltbook and Melt-downs

    In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we digest another busy week of market movements, economic data, momentum shifts and shifting expectations. We start with the surprisingly low (and under control) inflation data from Europe, where Eurozone inflation came in at 1.7%. This has led to the ECB maintaining rates on hold and Christine Lagarde suggesting that the Eurozone is in a “good place” (at least with respect to inflation), and similarly the Bank of England kept its rates on hold at 3.75% although did hint at a further cut later in the year (its inflation had surprised on the upside in December at 3.4%). Turning to the economy vibe checks, it is interesting to see that there remains a divergence between customer's actual experience (trending downwards) and expectations (low and remaining low), as actually expectations have never really been too elevated, despite the foaming at the mouth that has occurred by onlookers of the "red hot" economy. Employment numbers have been weaker than expected, while expectations are weaker still, so there is definitely a cloud hanging over the K shaped economy, especially as the oil price gets higher on geopolitical concerns, which could drive pump prices. All eyes remain on the putative Chair of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, and there has been some vacillation around his expected positioning. It is clear he is in favor of a smaller Fed, with a shrunken balance sheet, but his positioning around inflation is less clear. Is he a hawk and mindful of inflation - or does he not consider it important - as calculated by economists anyway. The answer to this question could dictate his positioning around rate cuts and for now, he is a bit of a challenging study. The initial expectation that he would be hawkish (another Volcker?) sent the dollar higher and other assets into somewhat of a tailspin this week. Gold and silver were particularly hard hit, with both falling precipitously, silver more than gold. This may have been due to technical factors such as silver being essentially thinly traded, but either way it was spectacularly bad timing for an asset class that had been recently driven upward by a large degree of retail buying. Bitcoin had an even worst trajectory - and has now fallen back to its pre-election levels, below $70,000 as we write. There is no particular fundamental reason for this, although it is clearly a risk-off trade, and it could be an indication of the risk aversion coursing through tech exposures currently. Finally turning to tech stocks, the focus on capex after the Alphabet earnings call indicates that investors are increasingly scrutinizing capex to see if the expenditure will be justified. There is more skepticism regarding tech stocks broadly, particularly after the staggering revelations about Moltbook, a social network for AI agents. This perhaps sent a chill - a reminder that the pace of advancement in AI has been rapid, and perhaps that it has got ahead of our ability to control it. More skepticism ensued. The fallout from this skepticism was a rise in rotations - from growth to value (value has outperformed growth for the last three months, from tech stocks into smaller and mid-cap stocks and out of the US into non-US equities. For clients with a broadbased portfolios this will be rewarding.

    19 min

  4. JAN 30

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast January 30, 2026 - YoYos and YOLO

    In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we cover the post-Davos week, which, as is now typical has been filled with newsflow, most recently chatter regarding the pending appointment of the next Fed Chair. As we go to print it seems likely to be Kevin Warsh - a current Fed Governor, one of the youngest, and considered to be an "orthodox" pick, given his existing reputation as a Fed Governor and expectation that he will not be necessarily a channel for political preferences. The recent Fed decision to leave rates flat was difficult to parse - as the message was essentially more of the same. There is clearly a mixed message in terms of jobs, the perception of jobs being plentiful and being hard to find are now roughly the same – so clearly no big gap as there was post Covid. The employees in tech industries are flat to trending lower despite revenues and capacities soaring – this points to productivity gains and will continue to matter for jobs. Other equity market sectors have diverged, there are some indications of saturation points being met in certain areas of tech – there is a fall and stabilization of TikTok users, while Apple (which has had a mixed AI launch) has had a set of 8 consecutive weekly declines. Other sectors such as “gridTech” – a new sector coined by Bloomberg – which contains a basket of companies exposed to the pick-up in investment in the electricity grid. It is notable that this, as well as the utilities index more broadly have not generally performed as well as other equity sectors. This latency is interesting – as clearly the one broadly accepted truth is that more electricity will be needed going forward and that this will have to be met from all sources, including solar, which has accounted for 61% of the increase in electricity demand in the US. The performance in precious metals has continued to define the risk off appetite from time to time – with gold moving to a record $5,500 per oz, and US markets considerably weaker compared to the gold. There is some indication that Chinese retail holders of gold have peaked considerably pointing to the potential for some speculative interest there and the potential for more volatility. Silver, similarly, has seen a stark ascent, as well as sharp intra-day volatility just in the past week. The podcast ends with a comment on the use of precious metals in a portfolio and the role that they play.

    21 min

  5. JAN 23

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast January 22, 2026 - Drama at Davos - With Special Guest Matt Rice

    In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we conduct a "review" of the drama (and at times melodrama) that has played out at Davos this year, and digest what it has meant for markets. We are joined by CIO and founder of Vistamark and former CIO of the consulting firm Fiducient - Matt Rice, who works with institutional investors and shares his insights on market dynamics and portfolio construction. Starting at our usual starting point of inflation Matt shares his view of the long term deflationary impact that AI is likely to have we touch on the impact of the oil price weakness that will in the more immediate term depress prices. Turning then to the economic "vibe check" we note the sensitivity of equity markets to the prevailing geopolitical drama around both the rhetoric on Greenland as well as the on-again/off-again tariff announcement on European countries. The uncertainty over recent days has been reflected in equity markets, which clearly still show some sensitivity to geopolitical risk, and the ascent of metals continues - clearly reflecting a risk aversion and a concern about currency debasement. Oil, on the other hand, remains flat - reflecting high inventories and only some sensitivity to geopolitical news (in this case the news from Iran). Moving to other sources of risk, even Secretary Bessent has attributed some of this week's weakness in US equity markets to the dramatic movements in the Japanese long dated government bond market over the past week. In what may be Japan's Liz Truss moment (echoing the weakness in UK markets which ultimately led to the downfall of Prime Minster Liz Truss towards the end of 2022). In recent developments the Japanese 40 year bond yield had surpassed 4% for the first time, while the 30 year bond had never suffered such a large drop in a single day. In our discussion Matt suggests that this correction was well overdue and could be the canary in the coal mine for other economies with high levels of government debt. We end our discussion with a reflection on Europe, firmly in the cross-hairs now at Davos, and remind ourselves of the positive impact on European defense stocks that has been a direct response to the challenge from President Trump, as well as on some of the other areas said to be trailing (IT infrastructure) as well as "financial plumbing".

    31 min

  6. JAN 17

    Markets Happy Hour Live from New York City - January 16, 2026 - Blocking and Tackling

    We started the year with some chilly weather, some American football inspired blocking and tackling and a tech challenged yet warmly engaging live podcast in New York. The video and slides will follow next week, but for now please enjoy the audio. In front of a live audience we discussed the inflation picture, the delayed transmission effect of tariffs and the ongoing disconnect with consumer's price experience on the ground. We examined the market reaction to the announcement last week of a criminal investigation into former Chairman Powell. The decisive push back, via video recorded by Chairman Powell, seems to have been viewed as a form of checks and balances working as they should, and, as ever in recent years, bond markets have reacted calmly, being decidedly unbothered. Equity markets have been somewhat lack luster this week, coming off the prevailing uncertainty in geopolitics and domestic checks and balances, but the US market still stands alone in having experienced few "flight" events in recent years - a flight event being defined here as a simultaneous fall in equities, bonds and currency. This underscores the sense of "might is right" that dominates not just in equity markets but also - now - in geopolitics. We discuss some of the tangential effects of the recent rhetoric around Venezuela and the importance of military power. We examine whether this is galvanizing efforts in Europe to join forces, as well as within other trading partners - namely China, which is seeing its largest ever trade surplus.

    30 min

  7. JAN 8

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast January 8, 2026: Regime Change and Regime Adaptive Portfolios

    In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we are joined by Alan Dunne, founder of Archive Capital, who has written a recent white paper on the regime adaptive portfolio. It is a particularly appropriate topic given the heightened discussion of regime change that we have seen over the past week – both at the level of a specific country, as well as at a broader level as a new form of foreign policy is now emerging, fairly unprecedented its scope. We start our discussion by reflecting on the likely impact on the oil price that the Venezuelan situation may have – so far the impact has been muted, and an increase of supply should – according to traditional metrics, lead to lower prices. The mixed signals that inflation is sending – lower oil prices on the one hand – continuing pressure on services on the other is also being noted by the US Fed, and the latest minutes of their most recent meeting underscore the divide that is in place there. Moving to the outlook for interest rates, Alan underscores the mixed data facing the Fed as well as the rising fiscal burden and concern about central bank independence that defines this regime as different from the last one. Equity markets remain robust, particularly according to market commentators in the US, but we ask whether it is likely to be a 1995 or a 1999 in terms of market outcome, and we then proceed to examine the sectors that are most likely to offer diversification and resilience. Alan then sets forth his thesis on what a regime adaptive portfolio should look like. We discuss the characteristics of the current regime, how different asset classes are behaving and the role that traditional diversification will play.

    34 min

  8. JAN 1

    Markets Happy Hour Podcast - January 1, 2026 - New Year/New Nihilism

    In this first Markets Happy Hour Podcast of the New Year, we reflect on the dark turn that many of the “Year in Review and Look Ahead” commentaries took over the traditionally slow period between Christmas and New Year. Some of this related to the new financial “nihilism” and not only was there a Wall Street Journal on the topic but an X post describing a degenerate generation attained over 20 million views. This suggestion that Generation Z is increasing opting out when it comes to traditional professional paths and paths of wealth creation and are opting to “bet the house” to aim for large and outsized gains, hence the increase in gambling and betting, such as Kalshi and Polymarket. This suggestion that there is divergence in terms of meaning and wealth creation is also a subcurrent of one of our themes for 2026, which is a theme of “enough”. Equity markets have ended the year on a positive note, although recent sharp sell-offs in silver after the margin requirements were altered by CME have been a reminder of the volatility that has now become a feature instead of a bug in markets, and another reminder of the perils of leverage. We discuss some positive news in real estate which shows how some real estate is becoming affordable due to overbuilding as well as the technical factors that baby boomers will be downsizing at around the same time that many Gen Z buyers are (belatedly) preparing to buy their first home. This may make affordability fall within reach for some, and is a welcome antidote the common doom-laden refrain about housing being out of reach for an entire generation. Financials have had a strong year and the top 6 US “too big to fail” banks now top $2 trillion, with JP Morgan representing one third of that. Similarly green energy has had a surprisingly strong year despite the headwinds presented by the Trump administration, as the demand for energy and electricity has been so high. In a final sweep through other asset classes we note how the Bitcoin Treasury frenzy has died down given the volatility in Bitcoin. As we have done before we compare it to other diversifiers such as metals – and note that the drivers for using these diversifiers is actually quite different. While metal purchasers may be driven by greed, it may also be fear – fear of currency debasement, fear of rising fiscal imprudence, lack of trust in traditional assets. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is driven more by greed than fear, particularly as it is still not a universal store of value.

    29 min
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A weekly discussion of markets, world politics and what it means for your investment portfolio. Banter. Not investment Advice.

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