CAPS Unlock Podcast

Peter Leonard
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  1. Jul 21

    From population boom to AI diplomacy: Central Asia's next chapter

    Central Asia is one of the world’s youngest and fastest-growing regions, but what do the latest demographic trends tell us about its future? This episode begins with new population figures from Kyrgyzstan, where the latest statistics point not only to continued growth but also to accelerating urbanisation. The discussion explores why Bishkek is expanding faster than the country as a whole, what falling fertility means for the region in the longer term, and why demographic change is becoming one of Central Asia’s defining policy challenges. The conversation then turns to Uzbekistan, where the country’s first population census in more than three decades revealed more than 810,000 additional residents compared with previous official estimates. We discuss what this means for measuring economic performance, labour markets and long-term development planning, and why the census may ultimately improve policymaking despite raising new questions about productivity and employment. In our interview section, Hugh McLean, Senior Adviser on Climate Change Education at CAPS Unlock, discusses an upcoming new policy discussion paper arguing that climate change education should become a compulsory element of education systems across Central Asia. Drawing on more than 1,000 contributions from young people through the Turn It Around Central Asia initiative, he explains why climate education should focus not only on environmental knowledge but also on agency, community action and preparing future generations for a changing climate. The episode concludes with a discussion of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, where China outlined its vision for global AI governance. The hosts examine Kazakhstan’s participation, the creation of a new international AI cooperation organisation, Central Asia’s increasingly important role in global technology diplomacy, and the opportunities and risks that accompany growing dependence on foreign AI ecosystems. LINKS Turn It Around project - https://capsunlock.org/projects/tia-central-asia-cards-eng/ Kyrgyzstan population news - https://24.kg/obschestvo/381849_naselenie_kyirgyizstana_prevyisilo_74milliona_chto_pokazala_novaya_statistika/ Uzbekistan population surpasses 39 million - https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2026/06/30/population-uzbekistan/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  2. Jul 14

    Kazakhstan’s uranium bargain with China

    Central Asia’s electricity systems are under growing strain. Kyrgyzstan expects to import more than 4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity this year as rising demand collides with its heavy dependence on hydropower and low water levels at the Toktogul Reservoir. Tajikistan faces a similar problem: reduced inflows into the Nurek Reservoir have cut power generation and forced the government to curb electricity exports ahead of another difficult winter. Uzbekistan, meanwhile, has set a new record for summer electricity consumption as extreme heat drives greater use of air conditioning. The country has so far managed to match demand with production, helped by rapid growth in solar generation. But the wider regional problem remains unresolved: despite complementary power systems, electricity trade within Central Asia still accounts for only a small share of total demand. This week’s guest is Antoine Magnier, a master’s student in political science at McGill University who recently completed an internship with CAPS Unlock. His new paper, Kazakhstan’s Uranium Bargain: Trading Resources for Technology, examines the deepening nuclear relationship between Kazakhstan and China. China needs secure uranium supplies for its rapidly expanding fleet of nuclear reactors and wants foreign markets for its technology. Kazakhstan wants to move beyond the export of raw uranium and secure a larger role in fuel production, reactor construction and the wider nuclear supply chain. Magnier explains how Astana is attempting to trade access to its resources for technology, while avoiding excessive dependence on either China or Russia. The episode closes with a look at how false copyright complaints and coordinated reporting campaigns can turn social-media moderation systems into tools of extortion and political pressure against journalists, media outlets and election observers in Kazakhstan. LINKS * Antoine Magnier, Kazakhstan’s Uranium Bargain: Trading Resources for Technology - https://capsunlock.org/publications/kazakhstans-uranium-bargain-trading-resources-for-technology-2/ * Uzbekistan’s record summer electricity consumption - https://www.spot.uz/ru/2026/07/11/electricity-summer/ * Kyrgyzstan’s projected electricity imports for 2026 - https://24.kg/ekonomika/381062_bolee_4milliardov_kilovatt-chasov_elektroenergii_importiruetkr_v2026_godu/ * Tajikistan’s winter electricity outlook and Nurek Reservoir levels - https://asiaplus.news/2026/07/13/predstoyashhej-zimoj-sveta-budet-bolshe-ministr-energetiki-tadzhikistana-dal-prognoz-na-otopitelnyj-sezon/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  3. Jul 7

    The rise of AI surveillance in Kazakhstan

    Uzbekistan’s strategic outlook continues to evolve. This week we examine President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s landmark state visit to Georgia, the first by an Uzbek president in more than two decades. Beyond the diplomatic symbolism, we discuss what was actually agreed: plans to deepen cooperation on the Middle Corridor, new logistics infrastructure centred on Georgia’s Black Sea ports, and a growing economic partnership that could reshape Uzbekistan’s access to European markets. We then turn to Kyrgyzstan, where former security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev has been convicted in the high-profile “Letter of the 75” case. We assess why the suspended prison sentence matters, what it says about the relationship between President Sadyr Japarov and his former ally, and whether the latest reshuffle of the country’s security apparatus represents genuine institutional reform or simply a redistribution of power. In our interview slot, we’re joined by Paolo Sorbello, editor of the English service of independent Kazakhstan news outlet Vlast.kz, to discuss his major recent investigation into the country’s rapidly expanding digital surveillance infrastructure. Drawing on extensive reporting, Sorbello explains how facial recognition, AI-powered CCTV, smart-city projects and large-scale data collection are becoming embedded in everyday life. We discuss the government’s case for these technologies, their role in policing and public services, and the broader questions they raise about privacy, accountability and political control. LINKS * Paolo Sorbello’s feature on Kazakhstan’s digital surveillance system (Vlast.kz) - https://vlast.kz/english/69775-kazakhstans-big-brother.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  4. Jun 30

    The long arm of Turkmenistan

    Russia’s fuel crisis is no longer just Russia’s problem. As Ukrainian strikes continue to disrupt refinery capacity, shortages are spreading across the country, forcing Moscow to manage supplies and raising difficult questions for its neighbours. We examine what this means for Kazakhstan, whose own refining capacity remains limited despite its vast oil reserves, and for Kyrgyzstan, which depends heavily on Russian fuel imports. We also look at how widening price differences have fuelled an extraordinary smuggling economy stretching across Central Asia. We then turn to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Brussels. While headlines focused on the announcement of roughly $12 billion in commercial agreements, we ask whether the more consequential developments were political rather than financial. We discuss progress towards an EU-Kazakhstan visa facilitation agreement, new aviation arrangements, and what closer cooperation with European partners could mean for Kazakhstan’s long-term economic development and technological ambitions. In the interview slot, we speak with Hugh Williamson, director of the Europe and Central Asia division at Human Rights Watch, following the publication of the organisation’s major new report on Turkmenistan’s campaign against activists at home and abroad. The report documents imprisonment, enforced disappearances, surveillance of exiled dissidents, pressure on family members, passport restrictions and alleged forced returns from countries including Turkey and Russia. Williamson explains how Turkmenistan has expanded its methods of transnational repression, why September 2022 marked a turning point, and whether international pressure can realistically improve one of the world’s most closed political systems. Links * Human Rights Watch report on Turkmenistan’s transnational repression of activists - https://www.hrw.org/feature/2026/06/24/lives-destroyed-for-speaking-out-turkmen-activists-at-home-and-in-exile/the * Reuters report on Russia’s request to Kazakhstan for AI-92 gasoline supplies - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-asks-kazakhstan-gasoline-ease-shortages-sources-say-2026-06-24/ * European Commission statement following President Tokayev’s visit to Brussels - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/de/statement_26_1436 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  5. Jun 23

    What Central Asia teaches us about happiness

    This week’s episode begins with Uzbekistan’s historic World Cup appearance, the first by any Central Asian country. The opening match against Colombia did not deliver the result Uzbek fans wanted, but it did produce the country’s first ever World Cup goal and a striking display of regional support. From fan zones in Bishkek to messages of solidarity from neighbouring countries, Uzbekistan’s campaign has become more than a football story. It has also offered a glimpse of how sport can shape identity, pride and regional feeling across Central Asia. The episode then turns to Kazakhstan, where the newly created Adilet party has merged with Amanat, the long-dominant pro-presidential party formerly known as Nur Otan. What initially looked like a potential shake-up of Kazakhstan’s managed political system now looks more like a rebranding exercise. The discussion looks at what the merger says about political engineering, elite management and the coming elections to Kazakhstan’s new single-chamber Kurultai. For this week’s interview, the focus shifts to a very different subject: happiness. Professor Shoirakhon Nurdinova of the Kimyo International University in Tashkent discusses her book Happiness and Life Satisfaction in Central Asia, the first major comparative study of subjective well-being across the region. The book asks how people in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan evaluate their own lives, and whether standard international measures of happiness capture what really matters in Central Asia. Nurdinova argues that income and GDP alone do not explain life satisfaction. Family trust, freedom of choice, informal support networks, health, employment patterns and local institutions such as the mahalla can matter just as much, and sometimes more. The conversation also explores why Western models of happiness may fail to capture Central Asian realities, and what policymakers should learn from looking beyond growth figures. Links Shoirakhon Nurdinova, Happiness and Life Satisfaction in Central Asia — https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-95-3082-3 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  6. Jun 16

    How COVID became a toolkit for control in Central Asia

    This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast is devoted to a conversation with Luca Anceschi, Senior Lecturer in Central Asian Studies at the University of Glasgow, about his newly published book, Pandemic Politics in Central Asia. The book examines how three Central Asian governments, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Anceschi argues that the pandemic was not simply a public health emergency that these regimes struggled to manage. Under cover of crisis, governments expanded their control over travel, public information and dissent, while shielding politically connected elites and reinforcing existing patterns of authoritarian rule. The discussion looks at the blurred line between emergency rule and ordinary governance, the different ways Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan framed the pandemic, and why Turkmenistan’s refusal to acknowledge any COVID cases became one of the most striking examples of pandemic-era denialism anywhere in the world. We also discuss the longer history of crisis management in Central Asia, from Soviet-era disasters to post-Soviet emergencies, and how governments have often responded not by solving underlying problems, but by managing appearances, controlling data and suppressing alternative accounts. The episode also covers the role of journalists, activists and international organisations, including the World Health Organisation, in documenting or contesting official narratives. Links * Luca Anceschi, Pandemic Politics in Central Asia - https://www.routledge.com/Pandemic-Politics-in-Central-Asia-Authoritarian-Contagion/Anceschi/p/book/9789048562190 * CAPS Unlock roundtable summary: The missing link in Central Asia’s energy transition - https://capsunlock.org/roundtable-the-missing-link-in-central-asias-energy-transition/ * Aruzhan Meirkhanova’s report on Central Asia’s electricity grids - https://justclimate.fes.de/topics/energy-policy-fast-forward-to-renewables/powering-the-transition-rebuilding-central-asias-electricity-grids-for-regional-resilience.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  7. Jun 2

    Turkmenistan’s migration trap

    This week’s CAPS Unlock podcast does something different. Instead of our usual regional round-up, we devote the full episode to Turkmenistan, a country too often left at the margins of Central Asia analysis, or reduced to caricature. We speak with Gulshat Chmaisse, a PhD candidate at the Australian National University’s Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, about her new paper, Turkmenistan’s migration policies: Reshaping economy and society, published as part of CAPS Unlock’s The Argument series. The paper centres on a striking paradox. Turkmenistan depends heavily on labour migration. Remittances sent home by citizens abroad help sustain household consumption, offset low wages and limited state support, and reduce pressure for domestic economic reform. Yet the state also obstructs migration through passport restrictions, opaque rules, exit bans, blacklists and informal payments. Rozyyeva explains why official data badly understate Turkmenistan’s dependence on remittances, how informal transfer networks and the black-market exchange rate shape household survival, and why Turkey has become the main destination for Turkmen labour migrants while Russia remains important for students. The conversation also explores the feminisation of Turkmen migration. As men face greater scrutiny at borders and through military-linked restrictions, women increasingly migrate independently and become primary earners abroad, especially in domestic and care work. That shift brings new economic agency, but also legal insecurity, family separation, exploitation and trafficking risks. Listeners can find Gulshat Chmaisse’s paper at CAPS Unlock’s website: www.capsunlock.org Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

  8. May 26

    Central Asia tries to become a region

    This week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast begins with the legal and political dispute around Gazprom and Naftogaz in Kazakhstan. A court at the Astana International Financial Centre recognised a Swiss arbitration award of around $1.4 billion in favour of Ukraine’s Naftogaz against Russia’s Gazprom. But Kazakhstan’s justice minister later said the ruling would not be enforced, arguing that the dispute had no meaningful legal connection to Kazakhstan or the AIFC. We discuss why this matters, what the AIFC was created to do, and why the case exposes a tension between the centre’s international commercial-law ambitions and the Kazakh state’s political caution. We then turn to new figures from the Eurasian Development Bank showing that trade between Central Asian countries has nearly doubled since 2020, reaching $12.3 billion in 2025. Kazakhstan remains the largest intra-regional exporter, followed by Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan’s role has grown sharply. The numbers are encouraging, but the baseline remains low. We discuss why intra-regional trade matters, how it differs from Central Asia’s raw-material exports to outside markets, and why barriers such as customs friction, poor infrastructure and border corruption still hold the region back. In our interview slot, we speak with Johan Engvall, Deputy Research Director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, about his new report, Forming a New Central Asia: How Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Build Regional Order Under Multipolar Pressure. We discuss the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan axis, Uzbekistan’s post-2016 regional opening, the role of consultative meetings, the Middle Corridor, and whether Central Asia is becoming more capable of acting as a region rather than merely reacting to Russia, China and the West. LINKS * AIFC Court judgment in Naftogaz v Gazprom - https://court.aifc.kz/judgments/case-no-2-of-2026/ * Eurasian Development Bank Telegram post on intra-regional trade - https://t.me/eabr_bank/1266 * Johan Engvall’s report, Forming a New Central Asia - https://www.foi.se/en/foi/reports/report-summary.html?reportNo=FOI-R--5814--SE Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe

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havli.substack.com

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  • Creator
    Peter Leonard
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    58
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Peter Leonard
  • Show Website
    CAPS Unlock Podcast

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