Canada wants to diversify. But diversify what, exactly? Exports? Customers? Suppliers? Technologies? Capital? Risk? And how would we know when we had actually done it? In this extended first episode of Canada’s Economy, Explained after the summer break, host Marwa Abdou sits down with Simon J. Evenett, Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy at IMD and founder of Global Trade Alert, for a wide-ranging conversation about one of the most consequential questions facing Canada: how much economic choice can a deeply integrated middle power actually create for itself? Evenett has spent much of his career studying the gap between how governments talk about international commerce and how trade, investment and business decisions actually work. Together, he and Abdou put some of today’s most comfortable policy words under pressure: openness, resilience, dependence, sovereignty and diversification. What begins with the gravity model of trade quickly becomes something much larger. How much can Canada really diversify away from geography? When does interdependence create prosperity, and when does it create leverage? What are we willing to pay for greater resilience? Who bears the cost of adjustment when supply chains move? And what happens when one country’s attempt to create more economic choice changes the incentives of the partner it is trying to become less dependent upon? Along the way, the conversation moves through outside options, supply-chain risk, portfolio theory, adjustment costs, repeated games, weaponized interdependence and the increasingly blurred boundary between trade policy and economic security. And the stakes are no longer hypothetical. In the days after this interview was recorded, the Canada-U.S. confrontation escalated, making many of the questions in this conversation considerably less theoretical. Diversification may be easy to draw on a map. Building real economic freedom in an interdependent world is much harder. This episode was researched and editorially directed by host and executive producer Marwa Abdou, and brought to life in close collaboration with producer Nick Nikitaras, who led its creative direction and editing. Links:- Simon J. Evenett, Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy, IMD - Global Trade Alert - Simon J. Evenett, Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)- Down and Almost Out: A Time for Reflection on the Future of the Multilateral Trading System with Dan CiuriakJohn M. Curtis, Henry Lotin - Trade Redirection of Chinese Exports During 2025: Evidence from Full-Year Data- China's Exports in 2025: Bilateral Tariff Hit, Limited Global Diffusion- Redirecting Chinese Exports from the USA: Evidence on Trade Deflection from the First U.S.-China Trade War Additional Resources:- Richard Baldwin et. al., “Global Supply Chain Risk and Resilience” - Kari Heerman and David Wessel, “Export Restrictions Don’t Solve Scarcity; They Redistribute It” - Daniel Trefler, “The Long and Short of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement,” American Economic Review - David H. Autor, David Dorn and Gordon H. Hanson, “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States,” American Economic Review - Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation - Pedro Dal Bó, “Cooperation under the Shadow of the Future: Experimental Evidence from Infinitely Repeated Games,” American Economic Review - Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman, “Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion,” International Security - Chad P. Bown, “The Real Risk of a Trade War With Canada: America Needs Its Neighbors to Counter China,” Foreign Affairs - Chad P. Bown, “Negotiating a Win-Win End to the Lose-Lose U.S.-China Trade War Over Technology and Critical Minerals”