Pitch The PM

PitchThePM
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Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist. It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.

  1. 4D AGO

    EP028: Teamshares: The Next Programmatic Acquirer

    Teamshares: The Next Programmatic Acquirer. Coming Soon: $LOKV → $TMS Doug Garber chats with Michael Brown (Teamshares, TMS) and Rick Hendrix (Live Oak, LOKV) about taking a programmatic acquirer of small businesses public via a DSPAC — the sourcing tech, capital plan, and why this opens a new asset class for investors. 🚀 In this episode: How Teamshares buys retirement-sale SMEs, systemizes sourcing (70k leads → 1% close) and runs them as audited subsidiaries. 🧩 The advantages of being public include a lower cost of capital and the ability to leverage the infrastructure the team has built to acquire and run SME’s efficiently.  The large runway to continue to acquire companies at around 15-20% ROE’s. The company could be FCF positive in the near future and be self-funding.  T. Rowe Price has already anchored the PIPE. Subscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for weekly market insights, episode follow-ups, and our job board!https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ 🎧 Listen on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. 💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access💡Model tools by InSyncAnalytics: The complete buy-side model productivity suit This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://PitchThePM.com Listen on Spotify • Subscribe for new episodes 🎧 Disclaimer: Educational only — not investment advice.

    1h 6m

  2. 5D AGO

    EP 027: Compounder Guru Sean Emory on why Block, $XYZ, is Far From Done

    In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Sean Emory, founder of Avory & Co., an investment firm focused on high-conviction, fundamentals-driven investing. Sean recently launched the Avory ETF ($AVRY), bringing his firm’s research-driven stock-picking approach to public investors.Sean outlines his “6 M” investment process that has allowed him to compound at nearly 20% for the last decade with low turnover for FO’s, UHNW, and RIA’s.Doug and Sean discuss why XYZ is one his largest weightings. • Cash App growth and monetization trends• Square’s re-acceleration in merchant volumes• The reality behind the software job cuts, the impact of AI vs over hiring• The role of credit products like Cash App Borrow• Competitive dynamics in fintech and digital payments• Risks, including macro conditions and credit cycles📩 Want to know if Doug bought the pitch?Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y?si=cb521c1e758246a1Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

    35 min

  3. MAR 26

    EP026: ($HSY) Hershey’s Sweet Comeback: Historic Cocoa Reversion to Boost Margins

    $HSY: Historic Price/Cost Tailwinds as Historic Cocoa Price Spike Reverses 🍫📈Pitch The PM sat down with Mark Rogers (SIGMIT Advisors / Heddy Creek Research) to break down what may be one of the cleanest price-cost setups in consumer staples right now: Hershey ($HSY).After a brutal cocoa inflation cycle crushed margins, cocoa prices are now reversing sharply. The Street has started revising numbers higher — and Mark believes the magnitude of the earnings reset is still under appreciated.📊 The Variant View Cocoa deflation is flowing into gross margins over time.Pricing increases are sticky giving favorable price/cost.EPS revisions are the key, we think the trend is your friend as cocoa deflation rolls through the PnL.Mark believes $9–$9.50 next year is achievable — and may not be peak.If $HSY earns ~$9–$9.50 and staples trade high-20s multiples, fair value could approach $270–$285 per Rogers.💰 Valuation MathVariant View:Margins could overshoot historical averages as they recover leading to positive revisions. A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)Disclosure: Doug still owns $RMCF. Mark sold $HSY after the strong quarter.*Not investment advice. 🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE...Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

    23 min

  4. MAR 13

    EP025: Opening the Strait of Hormuz With Kevin Book, ClearView Energy Partners

    Opening the Strait of Hormuz with Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners | Pitch The PMThe Strait of Hormuz is closed. Twenty million barrels of oil per day flow through that narrow channel. When it shuts down, the world feels it. The duration of the closure is the key to accessing the global ripple effects. Doug Garber sits down with Kevin Book, one of Washington's most respected energy policy analysts, for a real-time breakdown of the crisis. Kevin leads Clearview Energy Partners, an independent research firm that has spent decades writing economic and policy research on energy for institutional investors and corporate leaders. He has seen a lot. He says this is different.They cover what it actually takes to reopen the strait, what Iran is doing to keep it closed, and what the US military can and cannot do. They get into the nuclear question, the LNG shock, China's deep energy vulnerability, and what happens to sanctioned barrel flows from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. They talk about strategic reserves, risk premiums, production responses, and what history tells us about how these crises end.This is not a surface level take. Kevin brings the data, the geopolitical context, and tDoug brings the hard questions the market is asking right now.Guest: Kevin Book, Managing Partner, Clearview Energy Partners Host: Doug Garber, Pitch The PM, former Millennium Senior PM and top Citadel AnalystChapters: [00:00] Intro [01:18] Reopening the Strait of Hormuz [03:09] Naval escort precedent [04:11] Shipping risk and insurance [06:34] Iran’s remaining threat capacity [08:15] Iran nuclear facilities and uncertainty [12:06] Why oil spiked [17:20] Oil and LNG supply at risk [21:56] SPRs and alternate routes [22:26] Can higher prices restart US production? [24:15] China’s energy vulnerability [34:02] What this means for Taiwan [36:49] The endgame in Iran [45:38] What investors are asking nowSubscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for Buy-Side insights from an ex Sr. PM Millennium/Citadel Analyst, investment process frameworks, job openings, and if Doug did bought or sold the episodes pitch: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on SpotifyListen on Apple Podcasts💡 Presented by AlphaSense. Get a free trial!This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures.

    37 min

  5. MAR 3

    EP 024: Unlocking Venezuela: Governance, Production Potential, and the Global Oil Balance

    Doug Garber sits down with Paul Sankey (Sankey Research) and Xavier Smith (AlphaSense) to break down what it would actually take to “unlock Venezuela” — and why the biggest oil-market impact may be second-order (US capex behavior), not an overnight flood of barrels. Despite the headline excitement around a post-Maduro reset and a new hydrocarbons law, Sankey argues Venezuela remains a long-road “investability” story: rule of law, arbitration, security, and legacy claims (Exxon/Conoco) still dominate the timeline. Near-term gains are most credible through Chevron’s existing footprint, with heavier barrels reshaping Gulf Coast refining dynamics and Canadian heavy differentials at the margin. 📉 Bias / Framework: Sankey views the near-term upside as incremental barrels + changing incentives, not a rush of IOC capital. Public E&Ps remain anchored to capex discipline and uncertainty around future supply. 💥 Catalysts / Watch Items:Chevron execution + export/logistics normalizationEvidence of real rule-of-law improvements (arbitration credibility, contract sanctity)Resolution (or escalation) of legacy claims and payment/legal structuresNew entrants into the Venezuelan oil business are now allowed.Heavier-barrel flows shifting refinery economics and heavy differentials 💰 Setup / Market Mechanics:Near-term: modest Venezuela adds can still matter at the margin particularly for refiners who consume this feedstock.Medium-term: Field level security and certainty of payment will dictate the ultimate upside 🎯 Bottom LineThis is about controlling the oil in the Western Hemisphere over the long-term. Don't expect a material production ramp so quickly other than what Chevron can ramp on with their in country resources. ⏱️ Chapters:[00:00] Welcome + format[01:32] 2026/2027 Venezuela production outlook + Chevron’s role[05:13] The “US reinvestment” externality[14:40] Who invests (majors vs privates) + getting paid[20:06] Why $70 Brent isn’t a simple green light[24:30] European “green shoots,” diluent constraints, and heavy oil realities[26:30] Iraq lessons and a Venezuela “playbook”[31:16] Big picture geopolitics: US/China/Russia/Iran[36:30] Guyana vs Venezuela: geology vs governance[41:40] Economics of the “prize” (heavy barrels, decline, emissions)[47:30] Nat gas + Trinidad LNG + infrastructure constraints[51:40] Q&A: Canada oil sands + Iran blockade risk[56:10] Wrap + AlphaSense CTA📲 Subscribe to the newsletter: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y💡 Webinar by AlphaSense — the AI intelligence platform for finding and synthesizing signal across equity research, filings, transcripts, and expert calls. Sign up for a free trial: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

    55 min

  6. FEB 12

    EP023: The Street Is Ahead of Itself on $DIS - park traffic seeing headwinds

    Doug Garber sits down with Sean Kumar (Humbucker Capital) to break down why Disney may be a value trap in disguise. Despite Disney’s evergreen IP and brand cachet, Kumar believes the street is mispricing the economics of DTC, overestimating ARPU growth, and underestimating park fatigue. He walks through his short framework grounded in bottoms-up segment analysis and consensus vs. internal modeling.  📉 Bearish Bias: Kumar has followed $DIS on the sell side and the buy side. While he respects the brand, he sees it as a value trap with street expectations too high for 2026. 📊 Variant View: Street is overly bullish on DTC margin ramp Parks traffic has peaked, and affordability is challenged.  Sell-side still 80% Buy despite 5 years of underperformance 💥 Catalysts: Miss on streaming margins Weak park comps Analyst downgrades 2026 CEO transition risk 💰 Valuation Setup:Downside to $90 (10–15x $7 EPS) vs. $130 bull case. Risk/reward skewed negatively. 🎯 Street Is Missing: What’s priced in vs. what’s achievable in a post-linear media world. ⏱️ Chapters:[00:00] Humbucker Origin[06:00] Bias on $DIS[14:00] Iger’s Leadership[20:00] Streaming Unit Economics[27:00] Parks Plateau[34:00] Street Models vs. Reality[46:00] Catalysts & Counterpoints 📲 Subscribe to the newsletter: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ 🎧 Listen on Spotify 📺Watch on YouTube 💡 Powered by AlphaSense: Free access This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

    43 min

  7. JAN 25

    EP 022: The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela

    🎧 The better oil equity bet is in Colombia not Venezuela | with Venezuelan-American, Danny Pidert Hernández | Pitch The PMAfter the U.S. extracted Maduro, investors scrambled to re-underwrite the LatAm energy map.Doug Garber sits down with Danny Pidert Hernández — hedge fund manager, Venezuelan-American, and boots-on-the-ground LatAm research pro — to break down the real variant play emerging post-Maduro: Colombian energy equities.Danny has spent years mapping the politics, channel checking with petroleum engineers, and tracking who actually controls oil, roadways, and dollars in the region. The result? A high-signal discussion on regime change, risk-reward math, and why names like $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC may be on the verge of a growth re-rate if Colombia flips right in May. 🔍 Checklist Angles:Mispricing: Names like $GPRK & $PXT trade like melting ice cubes — priced for no permits, no growth, and political paralysis. Catalyst: Colombia’s May election could end Petro’s anti-fossil policies and reignite fracking + exploration. Variant View: Regime risk is priced in, but upside from production normalization is not. Names could re-rate under a Colombian regime change. On the Ground Evidence: Danny met directly with field ops + engineers during a recent month long field research trip.💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access🧭 CHAPTERS [00:00] – Intro & Danny’s Background Dual citizen, former PM, born in Caracas, trained on GS trading desk. Why he fled Venezuela under Chavez and what he sees now on the ground. [06:55] – Venezuela Today: A Collapsed State GDP -80%, oil down 90%, 8M+ people fled. Why Maduro’s fall is symbolic — and why Diosdado Cabello & Padrino López still hold the real power. [08:39] – What the U.S. Must Do Next Venezuela remains uninvestable. Chevron is the only major still there. Exxon & Total want no part until full government reset and seized asset compensation. [14:49] – Chevron’s Underappreciated Edge Operating at low utilization — could boost production 2x without new capex. What’s holding it back? Sanctions, diluent imports, and deal optics. [17:00] – Who Benefits From Venezuela Reopening? Chevron, Valero, Schlumberger? Yes — but moves may be priced in. Danny walks through which tickers are most levered to LatAm oil upside. [21:44] – Colombia Is the Lateral Trade Petro’s anti-oil regime is ending. May election likely flips government to pro-business. Colombia could be the real winner from Venezuela chaos. [24:21] – Field Research: Colombian Oil Stocks Why $GPRK, $PXT, and $EC are the better growth bet. Danny met directly with engineers and ops teams to verify asset quality and roadmap. [27:27] – Catalysts + Tickers to Watch Election in May is the main clock. Right-wing win unlocks fracking and permits. Stocks still price in regime risk, not recovery. [44:15] – Hair on the Story: What Could Go Wrong? Asset decline curves, protest blockades, political manipulation. What investors need to underwrite before sizing up the trade. 📲 Subscribe to the newsletter to see if Doug acted on this episodes pitch: pitchthepm.beehiiv.com This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at PitchThePM.com.

    55 min

  8. JAN 15

    EP 021: Make America skinny again? The oral GLP-1 opportunity at Eli Lilly ($LLY)

    Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 is going to change how the obesity market can scale. In this episode of Pitch the PM, Doug Garber speaks with Sriker Nadipuram, a founding member of Critical Value Asset Management, a long/short equity fund focused on biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Doug and Sriker unpack why oral delivery matters for access, and long-term earnings power. The discussion focuses on how behavioral friction, PBMs, pricing mechanics, and policy all shape adoption, often more than clinical data alone. Topics include: Why obesity drugs are a penetration story, not just an efficacy story How PBMs influence which drugs patients actually receive Why list prices are misleading, and how direct pricing changes access What’s priced into LLY today, and what may not be 👉 Doug shares his full Variant View exclusively in Buy-side Insights, the official PTPM newsletter. Subscribe to get the complete framework. 👉 This episode is supported by Carbon Arc, an alternative data platform that gives investors access to real-world transaction and behavioral data to better understand adoption, pricing, and demand. Learn more at https://www.carbonarc.co/welcome 🛑 Disclaimer This conversation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The participants may have positions in securities mentioned and are under no obligation to update their views. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

    1h 1m
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
8 Ratings

About

Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist. It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.

Information

  • Creator
    PitchThePM
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    27
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © PitchThePM
  • Show Website
    Pitch The PM

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