On The Markets

707 Media
707 Media
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Understanding the stock market and economy probably wasn’t on your bucket list when you were a kid, when you graduated high school or even today 😂.  And yet there it is, day after day, looming in the background and affecting real life events for you and your family, good and bad.  Why’d it go up?  When’s it going down?  Wait, is “the market” actually much bigger than just 500 US stocks?  It’s complicated.  And they make it complicated on purpose!  On The Markets gives context to complexity.  A stock market and economy show in plain English.  Hosted by Fermata Advisors co-founders Daren Blonski CFP® AIF®, Chris Sipes CFP ® AIF®, podcast host Dano Weir and more. The team shares the weekly economic, governmental and technical inputs that may be affecting the performance outputs in your portfolio, tax situation and more.  Powered by the brands of Fermata Advisors, including Sonoma Wealth, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax, headquartered in Sonoma, California with offices across Northern California in Santa Rosa, San Rafael, Auburn and Chico.

  1. 7h ago

    The Fed Holds. AI Does Not.

    Fireworks in July typically happen on the 4th, but the market waited until the end of the month to let loose a "big finale".  Significant drawdowns in AI-related verticals, stability concerns in Japanese Yen and how it may all have been underpinned by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holding the line at this month's Fed Meeting.  Let's get the latest On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP®  and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • Rates stayed put at the July Fed Meeting.  How much of an effect did that have on this week’s market performance?  • The cautionary tale of leveraged AI investing that came to an end this week.  • AI volatility feels like the S&P would be “down”?  Daren has the key line it actually passed this week that’s not leading the narrative.  • A look at SpaceX’s significant underperformance in light of this week’s drawdowns.  • What credit default swaps tell us about this week’s AI volatility.    0:00 Cautionary tale of the Situational Awareness hedge fund and thoughts on leveraged investing  21:00 America's farmland value vs. Datacenters  25:00 SpaceX IPO underperforming  27:17 Sentiment: bears up, bulls down  28:37 Fed Meeting: rates held  34:10 Treasuries right now  38:02 Core PCE has been above 2% for 63 consecutive months  39:25 Junk credit spread  40:00 Over half of the S&P is priced at 10x sales  41:00 Cost of insuring hyperscalers spiking  42:10 Hyperscaler debt surging  43:31 Bull market cycles  46:00 Bitcoin, the sure thing that wasn't sure  49:30 S&P actually did better than you think  1:02:00 Oil sitting in a sweet spot?  1:05:00 SpaceX struggling, COCA COLA is up?!  1:09:45 The Dollar and the Yen- US stepping in to support Japan?  1:10:40 Interest rates are problematic  1:13:30 Mid cap breaks support  1:14:30 Semiconductor index getting clobbered  1:19:00 Gold continues a rough year  1:20:40 Silver hype train has left the station         Full video episode available here: https://youtube.com/live/rf-8XhEpKw4?feature=share       Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis      _____________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

    The Fed Holds. AI Does Not.

  2. Jul 24

    When Good News Isn't Enough

    Inflation numbers show a significant decline, but the market couldn't have cared less this week.  Spiking oil amid new mid-east turmoil lead the narrative this week, outshining inflation or easing unemployment.  What could that mean for the back half of 2026?  Let's find out, On The Market.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • OpenAI? Anthropic?  Those are the companies to be in 2026?  The chart that shows those hyperscalers hemorrhaging cash and the industry that’s happily on the receiving end.  • How China is side-stepping the Iran oil crisis.  • Think the US is the most expensive housing market in the world?  Would you be surprised to learn it’s not even in the Top 10?  • Not oil, not jet fuel, not rice, not cotton...the chemical symbol that’s up 142% since the start of the Iran war.  What is it?    0:00 Intro  5:14 US has a low home price to income ratio?  6:50 Low income wages have kept pace with inflation?  8:40 Investor sentiment  10:02 China side-stepping the Iran crisis?  11:22 Lowest unemployment claims since 1969?  16:00 US 10-Year Yield  18:04 Semiconductor companies devouring hyperscaler cash flow  21:27 2-year treasury rate  23:08 30-year TIPS yield  26:36 Google's "Other Income" soaring  28:00 Hyperscalers cash flows coming to a halt  29:45 Consumer electronics spiking  32:30 Price increase since start of the Iran War  33:53 S&P this week below the 50 day moving average  35:42 Nasdaq this week also stays below 50 day moving average  37:14 Russell 2000 showing strength  37:50 Developed markets trading sideways for now  38:50 Emerging markets also trading sideways  39:50 Agg Bond index continues its sideways trend  41:55 Long bonds continue downward  43:40 Bitcoin just hanging out  44:34 Commodities surging?        Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis    Full YouTube video of this episode available here: https://youtube.com/live/2L6vwbpZQb0     _____________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

    When Good News Isn't Enough

  3. Jul 17

    Are The Cracks Starting To Show?

    (00:00:00) Intro (00:01:49) The Episode A chip pullback?  A "double bottom" fail? Are they just flipping a coin in the Strait of Hormouz? Is the market starting to show signs of AI fatigue? Or is this all just dog days of summer low trade volume?  Let's find out this week On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • Some tariffs are now being refunded due to judicial rulings. What, if any, impact could that have on the market?  • What is the “most crowded” trade in the world and why you’re likely already in it.  • Bitcoin showing signs of life are a difficult 2026?  • Gold continues to fall back to Earth, what near-term prospects could look like.    0:00 Intro and world's largest explosives purchaser  3:10 CPI slightly better  11:20 Tariff refunds  14:30 What is the most crowded trade in the world?  16:53 Investor sentiment  18:00 Bitcoin showing signs of life?  19:25 Consumer sentiment  20:11 Gold sliding  24:25 30 TIPS yield  26:02 Import and export prices spiking  27:40 Housing market index dribbling?  29:30 Oil is noisy  34:30 S&P this week  38:00 Russell 2000 showing strength finally?      Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis        _____________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

    Are The Cracks Starting To Show?

  4. Jul 12

    Markets Change, Human Nature Does Not

    Despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the market's narratives and volume this week definitely had a "summer break" feeling.  Daren and Chris take a deep dive on how human behavior remains a constant in investing, despite the changing names and faces of the players on the board.  Let's find out On The Markets... This week, Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® breakdown: • The shocking shift in geographic wealth in America over the decades.  Would you believe in 1949 the most affluent city in the USA was...Detroit? • The important World War II milestone the US debt just crossed today, and how it could be fixed. • The positive signs Daren is still seeing in the S&P despite uncertainty in Iran.  Plus key indicators that give him pause from Bitcoin and Gold. Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis _______________________________________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

    Markets Change, Human Nature Does Not

  5. Jun 26

    AI Falling Back To Earth? What Fixed Income May Be Saying About The Cycle

    SpaceX debuted at $150, surged to $232 in four days on a wave of AI excitement, then lost 34% of its value in a single week. It was the most hyped, most AI-adjacent IPO of 2026 — and when it turned, the Nasdaq, the chip stocks, and the rest of the tech trade turned with it. So is this just a speed bump, or is AI finally falling back to earth?    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • The highs and lows of the SpaceX IPO, and how hyperscaling AI companies are dealing with surging capital expenditures.  • How Bitcoin is experiencing it’s own volatility right now.  • What is the ‘credit spread cycle’ and how could it be influencing AI growth?  • What tomorrow’s rebalancing of the Russell 2000 could mean and could indicate about the future.  • Why Daren sees oil is telegraphing that the economy might be slowing down?    Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis  0:00 Intro + gold running too hard and fast  4:19 Bitcoin sentiment is low  7:30 Investor sentiment  10:02 Hyperscalers capital expenditures affecting buybacks  13:30 Credit spread cycles  18:40 Where are we in the cycle?  21:40 Gas prices falling?!  24:20 PCE ticking up and market’s reaction  25:03 Interest rate hikes expected  27:20 10-Year Treasury Spread  30:25 Existing vs. New Housing supply  37:30 US Dollar Index  38:50 Gold and oil going down  41:50 Bitcoin loses 8 year old line of support  45:30 Interest rates  47:18 SpaceX played out like a film script for an IPO  50:45 Mag 7 trading down      Full video available on our YouTube Channel     _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

    AI Falling Back To Earth? What Fixed Income May Be Saying About The Cycle

  6. Jun 19

    The Rate Held, But The Fed Has Changed

    The Federal Reserve just held interest rates steady — but for the first time in years, the bigger story isn't the number, it's the man behind the decision. Kevin Warsh walked into his first FOMC meeting, cut the Fed's statement by more than half, skipped his own dot plot, and left Wall Street with more questions than answers. What a quieter Fed means for your money and your portfolio — let's find out on the markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • Rates held, and the Fed indicated a potential rate hike.  But Daren sees one sign that a rate cut may in fact be coming this year.  • The index you might not know that’s quietly outperforming the biggest 7 stocks in the world.  • How did SpaceX’s IPO fare in it’s first full week?  • Who thought you could have a more out of touch product launch than the Metaverse?  Snapchat said “I’ll take those odds” this week, and their share price paid the price.    0:00 Intro  7:57 Changes at The Fed  11:10 IPO returns over time lag the market  13:00 The Knicks are a stock?  16:24 Investor sentiment  19:30 Historical US valuations  22:38 Russell 2000 outperforms Mag 7?  25:40 Seasonal performance matters?  26:30 Bond escape velocity  34:00 How did rate news affect the market?  50:00 Gold on the struggle bus        Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis    _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

    The Rate Held, But The Fed Has Changed

  7. Jun 12

    This Week the Market Ran on Oil and Inflation

    This week oil prices whipsawed on Iran headlines while a hot inflation print kept the Fed boxed in, and together they drove the narrative in the market. Is the war actually over...again?  How would oil stability affect your portfolio?  How did SpaceX actually perform? Let's find out, On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • How the price of oil and hot inflation numbers sent the S&P 500 into fits this week.  • Projected spending on AI has now surpassed the railroad buildout of the 1800s and the Louisiana purchase.  Perhaps that's why the Mag 7 are down 2.6% year to date?  • A list of 10 market triggers that historically have indicated a market peak, with 7 of them currently active.  • What were the results of the SpaceX IPO?    7:00 AI buildout surpasses railroad buildout  10:20 Peak market triggers  17:30 YTD returns by asset class  20:30 Emerging Markets earnings strength  22:40 Emerging Markets being driven by tech  25:30 S&P 500 without AI is flat  27:30 Oil inventories shift  28:24 Inflation is on the rise again  46:30 S&P rallied after a stop and start    Full video available on our YouTube Channel   Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here   _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

    This Week the Market Ran on Oil and Inflation

  8. Jun 5

    How the Dot Plot Has Secretly Been Affecting Your Portfolio (And Why It Might Be Going Away)

    The Fed may soon scrap a tool called the dot plot...and most people have never even heard of it. But it has quietly shaped every mortgage rate, bond yield, and retirement projection in the last 14 years. Rumors indicate the new Fed Chair wants it gone by the June Fed meeting, and if it disappears, the financial roadmap Wall Street has relied on for over a decade goes with it. Let's find out how the dot plot may have been the phantom menace all along, On The Markets.    This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine:  • How the “dot plot” has impacted mortgages, bonds and 401ks since 2012 and the impact of it’s potential disappearance.  • The all-time high breakout in the S&P cooled today.  Why Daren sees a potential “double top” forming, but “not all hope is lost”.  • A key bitcoin owner sold off this week.  Why bitcoin is sitting at critical support and where Daren sees it going.    0:00 What is The Dot Plot?  14:13 Ai selloff today  27:00 Nvidia triple top?  28:00 Oil in a descending wedge  29:00 Bitcoin selling off  34:50 Gold looking precarious  37:48 10 year treasury shot up and stayed elevated       Full YouTube video here   Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis    _______________________________________  Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance.   The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed.  Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information.  A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented.   Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.   Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

    How the Dot Plot Has Secretly Been Affecting Your Portfolio (And Why It Might Be Going Away)
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About

Understanding the stock market and economy probably wasn’t on your bucket list when you were a kid, when you graduated high school or even today 😂.  And yet there it is, day after day, looming in the background and affecting real life events for you and your family, good and bad.  Why’d it go up?  When’s it going down?  Wait, is “the market” actually much bigger than just 500 US stocks?  It’s complicated.  And they make it complicated on purpose!  On The Markets gives context to complexity.  A stock market and economy show in plain English.  Hosted by Fermata Advisors co-founders Daren Blonski CFP® AIF®, Chris Sipes CFP ® AIF®, podcast host Dano Weir and more. The team shares the weekly economic, governmental and technical inputs that may be affecting the performance outputs in your portfolio, tax situation and more.  Powered by the brands of Fermata Advisors, including Sonoma Wealth, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax, headquartered in Sonoma, California with offices across Northern California in Santa Rosa, San Rafael, Auburn and Chico.

Information

  • Channel
    707 Media
  • Creator
    707 Media
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    93
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 707 Media, Fermata Advisors
  • Show Website
    On The Markets

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