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Sentinel Team
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What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org

  1. 4D AGO

    ″🟩 US sends second aircraft carrier to Middle East, European nuclear deterrent discussed, pandemic preparedness deprioritized at NIAID | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #7/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump again expressed support for regime change in Iran and sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, but also said that nuclear talks will continue. Some European leaders are floating the idea of a common European nuclear deterrent, but Spain's PM is opposed to “nuclear rearmament”. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters give a 69% (58% to 90%) probability thereof. Will it strike Iran before July 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (40% to 55%) chance. Will more than 10,000 people take part in protests in Tehran before February 20? Forecasters believe there's a 47% (35% to 58%) probability. Technology and AI: Bernie Sanders reiterated that he plans to introduce federal legislation for a moratorium on data center construction. A Chinese AI startup trained its new model entirely on Huawei chips. Anthropic was valued at almost $380B. Will a federal moratorium on data center construction become law before 2029? Forecasters give a 4% (2% to 7%) probability thereof. Will a Chinese AI model enter the top 3 on Epoch's Capabilities Index by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 12% (10% to 18%) [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:14) Geopolitics (02:17) Middle East (04:39) Europe (06:58) Asia (07:10) United States (09:41) Technology and artificial intelligence (13:07) Economy (13:22) Biorisk (14:15) Nature and climate (14:43) Miscellaneous --- First published: February 16th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-sends-second-aircraft-carrier --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    15 min

  2. FEB 9

    ″🟩 Anthropic and OpenAI release new models, US-Iran talks continue, illegal biolab in the US, nuclear arms treaty expires | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #6/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: American and Iranian negotiators met for nuclear talks in Oman. No agreement was reached, but both sides said the talks will continue. A nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia expired. Will Iran's current regime and the US reach any agreement around Iran's nuclear program before July 1, 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 17% (5.0% to 32%) probability thereof. What is the chance that any of the US, China or Russia will start any negotiations towards a new nuclear arms treaty by the end of 2026? Forecasters estimate around even odds, 52% (40% to 65%). What is the chance that a new country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2030? Forecasters give a 5.3% (1.0% to 15%) chance to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic and OpenAI released their most powerful models to date. Both companies said that the models were mostly built by AIs, and that some of their benchmarks that were designed to detect dangerous capabilities have been saturated. METR assessed GPT-5.2 (high) to be SOTA on its time horizon task suite. Will METR assess any AI to have a time horizon of 100 hours by the [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:10) Technology and artificial intelligence (05:46) Geopolitics (05:49) Middle East (06:27) Europe (07:30) Asia (08:12) Biorisk (09:11) Economy (09:48) Nature and Climate --- First published: February 9th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-and-openai-release-new --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    10 min

  3. FEB 2

    ″🟩 AI social network Moltbook grows, US-Iran tensions simmer, Nipah pandemic unlikely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #5/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%). Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance. Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form. What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance. Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India. Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...] --- Outline: (00:19) Executive summary (02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence (09:22) Geopolitics (09:24) Middle East (11:18) Europe (13:18) The Americas (13:21) Latin America (16:06) North America (20:22) Asia (21:22) Africa (21:43) Biorisk (23:07) Economy (25:08) Nature and climate --- First published: February 2nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-social-network-moltbook-grows --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    26 min

  4. JAN 26

    ″🟩 Trump walks back Greenland threats, US sends warships to the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #4/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia took place in the UAE, but they made little progress. Tensions between protesters and ICE remain high in Minneapolis. Will the US carry out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 66% (50% to 78%) probability. Will there be regime change in Iran by then? This would involve the IRGC no longer holding power. Forecasters estimate a 17% (10% to 24%) chance. Will there be a ceasefire of any duration (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 5.1% (4.0% to 7.0%) probability. Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before March 2026? Forecasters estimate a 30% (5% to 65%) chance. Technology and AI: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (02:50) Geopolitics (02:53) Europe (05:38) Middle East (08:33) The Americas (08:36) Latin America (09:09) North America (14:51) Asia (16:26) Africa (16:38) Technology and artificial intelligence (20:12) Economy (22:15) Biorisk (22:43) Nature and climate --- First published: January 26th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-walks-back-greenland-threats --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    23 min

  5. JAN 19

    ″🟨 “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace”, “that’d be pretty morally bankrupt. and he’s really not an idiot” || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #3/2026” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase. Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI. Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention. Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026. They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (03:11) Geopolitics (03:14) Europe (07:44) Middle East (11:58) The Americas (12:01) Latin America (13:25) United States (15:00) Asia (15:20) Africa (15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence (19:11) Economy The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: January 19th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/i-no-longer-feel-an-obligation-to --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    21 min

  6. JAN 12

    ″🟩 Trump administration mulls strikes on Iran and says the US will own Greenland, DOJ launches investigation into Fed Chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #2/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil. Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high. They think there's a 23% chance (10% to 40%) that the US annexes, acquires or enters into a compact of free association with Greenland in 2026. Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 36.5% for the remainder of Trump's term. They think there's a 2.5% chance (0.5% to 7%) that the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which can remove the sitting President, will be invoked [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (03:56) Geopolitics (03:59) Middle East (06:07) Europe (09:42) The Americas (09:45) Latin America (13:33) United States (16:24) Asia (16:56) Africa (17:03) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: January 12th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    19 min

  7. JAN 5

    ″🟩 US attacks Venezuela and captures Maduro, threatens Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Denmark || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #1/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewater

    Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran. Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly produced child sexual abuse imagery that was shared on social media. Forecasts: Forecasters believe there's a 42% chance (10% to 75%) that the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall by the end of 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) no longer having power. Forecasters think there's a 36.5% chance (34% to 40%) that the US will annex, acquire or enter into a compact of free association with Greenland by January 20, 2029, up from 25% (12% to 40%) at the end of March 2025. They believe there's a 67% chance (50% to 90%) that the US will strike a country in Latin America other than Venezuela in 2026. They think there's a 43% chance that interim President Delcy Rodríguez will still be the de facto [...] --- Outline: (00:20) Executive summary (02:33) Geopolitics (02:36) Latin America (09:35) Europe (11:29) Middle East (13:37) Asia (14:09) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: January 5th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-attacks-venezuela-and-captures --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: " style="max-width: 100%;" />Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    16 min

  8. 12/29/2025

    ″🟩 Forecasts for drone attacks and AI time horizons; China holds military drills around Taiwan and imposes sanctions on US arms manufacturers || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #52/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites. 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the US will intervene militarily in a Latin American country in 2026, which could involve airstrikes or strikes from ships, a ground invasion or limited actions on land. Tech and AI: China is reportedly worried that AI could threaten Communist Party rule in the country but also doesn’t want to overregulate AI and fall behind in a “race” with the US. 8.6% (2.2% to 20%) chance that more than 10 people will die in a drone attack (which could involve multiple drones and either state or non-state actors) in an advanced economy (as defined by the IMF) in 2026. Conditional on such an attack, we also estimate that there is a 16% (6.0% to 30%) chance that more than 100 people would die from a drone attack in 2026. 83% (75% to 90%) [...] --- Outline: (00:24) Executive summary (02:03) Geopolitics (02:06) Europe (03:41) Asia (05:39) Middle East (06:40) The Americas (06:43) Latin America (09:01) United States (09:11) Africa (09:34) Technology and artificial intelligence (12:56) Biorisk --- First published: December 29th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/forecasts-for-drone-attacks-and-ai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    13 min
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About

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org

Information

  • Creator
    Sentinel Team
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    58
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 All rights reserved
  • Show Website
    Sentinel Minutes