New Horizons Investment

Odd Bird
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This podcast is designed to introduce new investors to investing.

  1. 1D AGO

    The Mathematical Edge of Michael Burry

    This episode examines the mathematical framework behind Michael Burry’s investment success, arguing that his wealth is built on a repeatable process rather than just a few famous "big bets." By analyzing a sample of his trades, the author reveals an impressive 87% win rate driven by consistent, moderate gains of 30% to 40%. The core of Burry’s strategy relies on asymmetric returns, where he strictly limits losses to small percentages while allowing undervalued assets to snap back to their fair market price. While the public focuses on his rare, massive wins, the source suggests his disciplined exit strategy and steady accumulation of smaller profits are the true engines of his long-term compounding. The podcast highlights that controlled risk and a high frequency of modest victories create a more sustainable edge than hunting for spectacular outliers.

    38 min

  2. 3D AGO

    The Coil Spring - Is the Party Over?

    The "Goldilocks" era of easy gains and rapid rate cuts appears to be over. This episode suggests the market is a "coiled spring" of tension, where even a small catalyst could trigger a violent downward correction because the structural supports (passive flows and buybacks) are done. This podcast outlines a perspective of extreme overvaluation and structural fragility within the 2026 U.S. stock market. Analysis of historical data, including the Shiller CAPE ratio, suggests that current valuations are at record-breaking distances from their historical means, signaling an imminent and potentially violent reversion to the mean. Experts like Michael Burry argue that the market's resilience has been artificially sustained by passive index flows, massive corporate buybacks, and unprecedented government intervention. New threats are emerging, such as a "maturity wall" of commercial debt and a shift in Federal Reserve leadership toward more hawkish policy. This podcast warns that the current "wait-and-see" period in Treasury yields masks a "coiled tension" that could lead to significant long-term drawdowns. Investors are cautioned that the decades-long era of easy gains is facing a historical turning point as liquidity risks and inflationary pressures intensify.

    1h 6m

  3. MAR 1

    The Psychology of XRP

    This episode examines XRP not as a financial instrument, but as a case study in investor psychology and the behavior surrounding high-friction infrastructure. This podcast suggests that social proof and institutional-sounding terminology often create a false sense of certainty that masks the complex reality of market plumbing. Rather than destroying the asset, regulatory pressure and technical hurdles serve as filters that eliminate casual investors while concentrating ownership among those with high conviction. This dynamic creates a volatile environment where price movements become emotional triggers rather than analytical data points. By comparing the asset's trajectory to historical examples like Amazon, the source argues that current uncertainty reveals more about human behavior than the eventual success or failure of the technology. This episode discusses XRP as a test of patience versus narrative within the broader financial landscape.

    30 min

  4. FEB 21

    Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) February 2026 Checkpoint

    This is an episode on Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) which is a specialized real estate investment trust that manages high-end office spaces and media production studios for major technology and entertainment firms. This podcast discusses financial filings and market analyses, reveal a company facing significant structural challenges and financial distress due to high debt levels and a downturn in the office sector. Recent reports highlight a dramatic decline in stock value and a fundamental rating of 1/10, reflecting concerns over the firm’s long-term survival and liquidity. To stay afloat, HPP has focused on debt repayment, asset repositioning, and equity dilution, including a major common stock offering to reduce its credit obligations. While HPP maintains a commitment to sustainability and carbon neutrality, analysts maintain a "hold" recommendation as the business navigates rising interest rates and fluctuating occupancy. This podcast portrays a "stressed REIT" attempting to stabilize its balance sheet amidst a difficult transition for commercial real estate.

    30 min

  5. FEB 18

    High-Conviction Macro Strategies and Portfolio Concentrations

    This episode discusses the recent strategic shifts and portfolio concentrations of five prominent hedge fund managers. Tepper is characterized as making a high-beta macro bet by leaning into Chinese equities, semiconductors, and cyclical industrials to signal global growth optimism. In contrast, Ainslie and ValueAct show heavy conviction in U.S. mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure, though they differ in their approach between momentum-based trading and long-term operational influence. Einhorn maintains a distinct value-oriented profile with an extreme concentration in homebuilding and gold hedges to protect against systemic instability. Burry displays high conviction in specific turnaround plays, including a significant new stake in GameStop. This podcast illustrates a broader market transition toward concentrated risk-taking across diverse thematic sectors like artificial intelligence and economic recovery.

    16 min

  6. FEB 15

    Molina Healthcare (MOH) February 2026 Checkpoint

    This episode examines Molina Healthcare's financial performance and strategic position as of late 2025 and early 2026. Investor Dr. Michael Burry compares the firm to a young GEICO, highlighting its efficient cost structures and disciplined management despite a significant drop in stock price. While Molina has successfully secured major Medicaid contracts in states like Florida and Idaho, it faces headwinds from rising medical cost trends and legislative changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The company is actively managing its capital through aggressive share buybacks and acquisitions to bolster long-term earnings. Conversely, analysts from CFRA maintain a "Sell" rating, suggesting that the market remains wary of regulatory uncertainties and margin pressures. The podcast depicts a company navigating a cyclical downturn in the insurance industry while attempting to maintain its status as a low-cost leader.

    35 min

  7. FEB 12

    Palantir: The Heretic’s Guide to an AI

    This episode examines Palantir Technologies, questioning its identity as a true software company versus a labor-intensive consultancy. While the firm markets its Foundry and Gotham platforms as revolutionary operating systems, the source argues they primarily act as integration layers requiring expensive, manual customization by engineers. Financial analysis suggests Palantir has historically struggled with profitability, masking high operational costs and significant stock-based compensation through aggressive accounting practices. The podcast allege that Palantir’s recent pivot to an Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is a reactive "wrapper" for third-party models rather than proprietary innovation. This reliance on external large language models introduces systemic reasoning failures and technical vulnerabilities that could eventually lead to customer churn. The podcast discusses Michael Burry in which he portrays Palantir as a company built on aggressive marketing and geopolitical mystique that faces increasing threats from more efficient, unbundled competitors.

    29 min

  8. FEB 8

    XYZ (Block, Inc.) 2026 Checkpoint

    This episode provides a comprehensive financial and operational profile of Block, Inc., primarily through its 2025 third-quarter SEC filing and various equity research reports. The podcast discusses the performance of the company’s two main ecosystems, Square and Cash App, while highlighting its strategic expansion into Bitcoin and buy now, pay later services via Afterpay. Financial analysts from firms like Argus and CFRA offer conflicting perspectives, ranging from buy to hold ratings, as they weigh the firm's robust gross profit growth against significant loan loss provisions and competitive pressures. The podcast also outline substantial legal and regulatory risks, including ongoing inquiries from the SEC and DOJ and tax disputes in San Francisco. Together, this podcast serves as a due diligence toolkit for investors, balancing internal corporate data with external market evaluations and risk assessments.

    32 min
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About

This podcast is designed to introduce new investors to investing.

Information

  • Creator
    Odd Bird
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    75
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Odd Bird
  • Show Website
    New Horizons Investment