Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

S3 Partners
  • 3.4 (14)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners Founder Bob Sloan break down the biggest business headlines and actionable insights that give listeners an inside edge on the markets.

  1. 3d ago

    The SpaceX IPO, APAC Long/Short Positioning & What Iran Means for the 10-Year

    Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan broadcast from their respective vacations for a wide-ranging vacation edition of Risk & Return. Charlie opens with a media spat over his California election comments and a broader critique of the mainstream press before pivoting to the real market story: the SpaceX IPO priced at a staggering $75 billion. Bob breaks down how the KOSPI short call from last week played out — semis got hit hard — and walks through APAC positioning trends, Wolfspeed's convert arb dynamics, and Maersk's covering-led squeeze risk. The duo also revisit the Andrew Left verdict: was this a criminal case or a compliance failure? And with Iran tensions escalating and the 10-year yield climbing, Bob and Charlie weigh what a Kevin Warsh-led Fed might do next — and what traders can't afford to ignore going into the weekend. Chapters: 00:00 — Opening 02:25 — Media Criticism: CNN, the California Election Story & Mail-In Ballot Debate 09:00 — New York's Decline, Bari Weiss at CBS & the State of Political Media 15:45 — Markets Check: KOSPI Shorts Pay Off, CPI Anxiety & the 10-Year Yield 25:50 — APAC Short Interest, Wolfspeed Convert Arb & Maersk Squeeze Risk 31:20 — SpaceX IPO: $75 Billion, Retail Allotments & Lessons from the Facebook Debacle 35:50 — Toe-to-Toe on Left: Compliance Failures, Jack Welch, and Moving Markets 43:00 — Wrap-Up For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com

    46 min

  2. Jun 4

    Market Positioning, the Short Seller on Trial & Media's Power Shift

    Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market and media stories — from the criminal conviction of short seller Andrew Left to the AI positioning battles playing out across space, software, and satellite stocks. Bob unpacks why S3's "battleground stocks" framework — the seventh category of market data — matters more than ever in an index-dominated market, with fresh positioning data on Intuitive Machines (LUNR), AST SpaceMobile, UiPath, and Virgin Galactic. Plus: Charlie's reporting on David Ellison's Hollywood power plays, Jamie Dimon's $20B war chest, the future of CBS and CNN news, and whether AI is about to obliterate the white-collar workforce. For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com Chapters: 00:00 — Intro: 40 years of Wall Street crashes and bailouts 03:37 — The Andrew Left conviction: did the feds criminalize short selling? 15:45 — UK short-disclosure rules and S3's real-time disclosure tracker 25:38 — Charlie's scoop: David Ellison, Paramount, and the battle for CBS 35:45 — Jamie Dimon's $20B: Carlyle's private credit in the crosshairs 37:40 — Bob's call: bearish on Guidewire (GWRE) into earnings 38:20 — The seventh category of market data: how S3 coined "battleground stocks" 39:58 — AST SpaceMobile: betting against Starlink 45:35 — Intuitive Machines (LUNR): shorts stuck as notional doubles to $950M 46:34 — The great AI debate: "obliterated" vs. the Bezos view 53:58 — Virgin Galactic and the SpaceX-driven short squeeze 54:44 — The KOSPI as an AI/semiconductor battleground proxy 56:26 — Iran, Hormuz, and closing thoughts

    1h 1m

  3. May 28

    Iran at the Point of No Return, AI's Atomic Moment, and the S3 Earnings Model

    Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan are back together for a wide-ranging episode covering the Iran standoff, Fed Chair Warsh's long game, David Solomon's DJ return (?), and S3's earnings model scorecard. Bob breaks down why economic pressure beats military force ("I'll trade treasure for blood any day"), and walks through last week's 2-for-3 earnings calls. Then Bob gets real about how S3 Partners uses AI internally, from daily monitoring agents to collateral production. Plus: the Oppenheimer analogy AI leaders need to hear, and a Gap earnings setup. Bob Sloan is the founder and managing partner of S3 Partners. Charlie Gasparino is a senior correspondent at Fox Business and columnist for the New York Post. For more information on the data discussed on the episode visit S3Partners.com 00:00 Intro & Bob's Back02:26 Iran: Treasure vs. Blood09:18 Oil, the Fed & Warsh's Long Game11:49 Earnings Scorecard: 2 for 317:49 Charlie's Week: DJ D Sol Update24:36 How S3 Actually Uses AI38:45 AI for Government: The Clarity Act & Common Identifiers44:08 Gap Bullish Pick & Sign-OffThis program and all contents are informational only and should not be construed as investment advice.

    48 min

  4. May 21

    Semi Shorts Hold the Line, Wendy's Heats Up & Warsh's "Triple Mandate"

    Charlie Gasparino and S3's Sam Pierson break down what the positioning data says heading into a packed earnings week — plus Charlie's takes on the new Fed chair's impossible mandate, Wall Street CEOs interacting with NYC's mayor, and the Iran/oil purgatory weighing on markets. This week: → Kevin Warsh's triple mandate: inflation, employment, and Donald Trump→ Why Jamie Dimon and David Solomon need to draw a line with NYC's mayor→ Iran, oil near $100, and why shorts aren't re-engaging→ S3 earnings model: Bearish on Williams-Sonoma, Walmart & BJ's Wholesale→ Inside the Buy Side: U.S. semi shorts target large-cap — NVDA is the #1 single-name short in the S&P 500 at $62.5B notional→ QCOM short P&L swings $3.5B in six weeks — pain without capitulation→ Battleground stocks: Wendy's SI up 94% YTD amid Trian take-private speculation→ Convertible arbitrage explained, and why it inflates headline short interest To learn more about the data featured in the episode visit s3partners.com or follow @S3Partners on X. 00:00 — Intro02:04 — Kevin Warsh's Triple Mandate: Inflation, Employment & Trump03:21 — NYC Mayor vs. Wall Street: Dimon, Solomon & the Ken Griffin Fallout09:10 — Iran, Oil & Market Purgatory15:37 — New Picks: WSM, WMT & BJ — All Bearish17:19 — Inside the Buy Side: U.S. Semi Shorts Target Large-Cap19:36 — The Biggest Semi Shorts Held Through the Rally22:14 — Passive Flows Are Doing the Heavy Lifting23:09 — NVDA: $62.5B of Shorts Meets Earnings Night24:03 — QCOM: $3.5B Swing, No Capitulation24:47 — Battleground Stocks & Convertible Arb Explained31:24 — Headlines: Larry Fink Pay Vote & Fed Minutes38:32 — Wendy's: SI Doubles as Trian Circles a Take-Private42:08 — Outro

    43 min

  5. May 14

    The Narrative Says Moon. The Positioning Says Not So Fast.

    The narrative says to the moon — but the positioning says not so fast. Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan break down the growing credibility gap between what Wall Street is saying and what the money is actually doing. This week: the most shorted stocks are quietly outperforming every index, semiconductor short positions are accelerating faster than longs, S3 data is flashing major warning signs on Blue Owl and private credit, cannabis banking could unlock a 10x opportunity, and Ryan Cohen's GME/eBay bid gets the Milken reality check. (0:00) Cold Open(0:39) Welcome & Intro(3:00) Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Fed Chair(7:20) Most Shorted Stocks Outperforming (13:30) Cannabis Banking & the SAFER Act(21:28) Grok Top 10: The Stocks X Cares About(25:00) Semiconductor Positioning vs. Narrative(34:33) Blue Owl: Warning Signs in Private Credit(41:16) Pick of the Week: RBC Bearings(42:00) One Year Anniversary & Closing To learn more about the data discussed on the show visit S3Partners.com

    48 min

  6. May 6

    Milken Dispatch: DeSantis, Tim Scott, and Griffin's Exit from NYC — Plus Maersk, Semis, and Figma

    Charlie Gasparino reports live from the Milken Institute Conference in Los Angeles with the latest from his fireside chats with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott, plus reporting on Ken Griffin's announcement that Citadel is scaling back its $6B NYC expansion. Bob Sloan walks through last week's S3 earnings model results, the math on Ryan Cohen's GameStop bid for eBay, the Maersk short unwind, semiconductor capitulation led by TSM, and why Figma is shaping up as a battleground stock into earnings. 00:00 — Welcome from Milken01:14 — DeSantis, Tim Scott, and Ken Griffin fireside recaps03:07 — Griffin scales back NYC expansion, shifts to Miami07:57 — Florida vs. South Carolina tax race17:18 — Last week's calls: AIG, Linde, Colgate18:05 — Ryan Cohen's GameStop bid for eBay23:59 — Shipping update: Maersk short unwinds25:04 — Semiconductors: TSM and positioning capitulation26:29 — Figma as a battleground stock into earnings29:11 — Milken mood, Iran blockade, and Trump's resilience

    37 min

  7. Apr 30

    Narrative vs. Positioning: Where Data Drives Alpha

    Bob Sloan and Charlie Gasparino on Iran's economic collapse, Powell's basement-office off-ramp, the college sports money grab, how positioning data cuts through narratives like the SaaS apocalypse, how short positioning called the Big Tech print, the real story behind the Avis squeeze, KOSPI overheating, and the $950M mystery trade fueling corruption claims. 00:00 Opening01:16 Iran on the brink: the Strait of Hormuz, the rial at 1% of value, and why markets aren't panicking06:08 Powell's off-ramp: the DOJ investigation, Thom Tillis, and the Office Space basement plan09:39 College sports and NIL: booster clubs, seven-year quarterbacks, and Utah's $500M private equity deal21:23 Big Tech earnings: short positioning called AMZN, META, and MSFT23:44 This week's picks: long AIG, long Linde, short Colgate-Palmolive25:42 Narrative vs. positioning: trades clear instantly, narrative lags 90 days26:50 The SaaS apocalypse is wrong: S&P 1500 software flows tell a different story29:13 Avis (CAR): two funds, 70% of the float, and why this was never a meme squeeze32:14 KOSPI overheating: 4.8% short interest, Z-scores at 5–7x, S3's direct KRX feed36:25 The $950M mystery short: insider trading, mosaic theory, and the Polymarket Army Ranger42:27 Milken preview, Mamdani vs. Ken Griffin, and why NYC's budget is bigger than Florida'sLearn more about the data featured in the episode at: www.S3Partners.com

    49 min

  8. Apr 23

    The Avis Squeeze, Kevin Warsh Breakthrough, Pot Goes Schedule 3, Software Bottom?

    Bob Sloan (S3 Partners) and Charlie Gasparino (Fox Business / NY Post) break down this week's biggest stories — Charlie's exclusive on the Kevin Warsh confirmation breakthrough, the DOJ rescheduling marijuana from Schedule 1 to 3, the insane Avis Budget (CAR) squeeze mechanics, signs of a bottom forming in software stocks, AMC's Battleground status and highlights from last week's CZ sitdown.

    41 min
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Ratings & Reviews

3.4
out of 5
14 Ratings

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Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners Founder Bob Sloan break down the biggest business headlines and actionable insights that give listeners an inside edge on the markets.

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