Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT
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On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

  1. 6D AGO

    When in Doubt, Zoom Out: John Kolovos on Navigating Earnings, Market Breadth & Rotation

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, I’m joined by John Kolovos, CFA CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors and current President of the CMT Association.  Recorded 1/29/26. We dig into what’s driving markets in early 2026—earnings season “gap lessons,” breadth and rotation, small caps vs large caps, precious metals, international equities, and why the U.S. dollar may be the most important “non-equity” chart to watch right now. John also shares a key teaching insight from his work at Brandeis University: don’t force your opinion onto the chart—let the market guide you. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    43 min

  2. JAN 30

    Simeon Hyman (ProShares): The Fed’s “Last Mile,” the Dollar, and Diversification

    A wide-ranging macro conversation with Simeon Hyman, Global Investment Strategist at ProShares. We explore what the first Fed meeting of 2026 may (and may not) change, why the “easy” rate cuts could be behind us, how to think about the dollar’s pullback, and what the strength in gold, commodities, and international equities may be signaling. Recorded 1/27/26. Simeon introduces a simple but powerful “2-3-4” framework connecting inflation, Fed funds, and the 10-year yield, then explains why today’s environment looks very different from the late-1990s. We also discuss volatility, diversification beyond U.S. equities, the role of crypto in asset allocation, and why broader market participation is a constructive sign for 2026. Key takeaway: This isn’t a market driven by one trade or one narrative. Investors who stay diversified across assets, align decisions with a clear mandate, and avoid overreacting to headlines are better positioned to navigate a slower, more balanced phase of the cycle. You can learn more about Simeon's work at https://www.proshares.com/. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    35 min

  3. JAN 28

    Diversification Can Fail When You Need It Most | Ted Hicks (Evidence-Based Investing)

    Surviving the short term is often the price of admission for long-term success. In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Ted Hicks—portfolio manager, wealth manager, founder of Hicks & Associates Wealth Management, and author of Evidence-Based Investing—to unpack what “evidence-based” decision-making looks like in practice, especially in a choppy market environment. We discuss why many popular investing myths persist, how historical context can improve your market awareness, and why diversification can fail right when investors need it most. Ted also shares how he uses a simple, “stoplight”-style composite indicator to communicate risk and opportunity with clients—and why process matters more than predictions. You can check out Ted's book at https://theodorehicks.com/. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    40 min

  4. JAN 27

    Finding Leaders in a Choppy Market: Joe Rabil on ADX, Momentum, and Breadth

    In this episode, Dave is joined by Joe Rabil of Rabil Stock Research—one of my favorite chart-focused voices and a fellow StockCharts contributor. Joe describes his process as “trend following on steroids,” and he explains why this environment demands discipline: the major indexes can look fine on the surface, but momentum has been fading and leadership has been shifting beneath the hood. We dig into Joe’s use of ADX to judge trend strength, why a market can drift higher without real momentum confirmation, and how a consistent bottom-up routine (reviewing hundreds of charts) can give you an edge versus only watching indexes and sectors. Joe also highlights where he’s seeing emerging relative strength in early 2026—especially in materials, energy, healthcare, and select industrials—and how to think about risk, stops, and timeframes when conditions get choppy.  Recorded 1/20/26. You can check out Joe's book at https://amzn.to/4bNkFmp and learn more about his work at https://rabilstockresearch.com/. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    39 min

  5. JAN 16

    Matt Tuttle’s “HEAT” Framework: Hedging, Edges, Asymmetry & 2026 Market Themes

    Markets don’t just move on fundamentals—they move on themes, positioning, and policy. In this episode, I’m joined by Matt Tuttle, founder of Tuttle Capital Management, to break down his “HEAT” framework: Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry, and Themes—and how those four ideas shape his daily approach to risk and opportunity. We discuss why Matt believes you should always be hedged, what real “edges” look like (and why many disappear once Wall Street markets them), how to structure trades for asymmetric payoffs, and how he’s thinking about 2026. Topics include the shift from AI creators to AI adopters, the importance of AI capex and the Fed as key pillars supporting the market, and how policy shocks can create both landmines and upside. You can learn more about Matt's work at https://www.tuttlecap.com/ and check out his podcast here https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    38 min

  6. JAN 16

    Jason Shapiro on Contrarian Trading, Risk Control, and the “Crowded Trade” Edge

    Jason Shapiro—featured in Unknown Market Wizards as “the contrarian”—joins me to unpack what actually creates longevity in trading: surviving drawdowns, learning from mistakes, and building a repeatable process built on risk-reward rather than prediction. We talk about how early wipeouts shaped his discipline, why “being right” is a trap, and why the best traders can lose more often than they win and still come out ahead. Topics covered include: Jason’s three “blow-up” lessons and how they forged his process, why predicting markets is “worth zero” compared to managing risk, the casino/card-counting analogy for trading edges, how to define exits based on your entry thesis, the value of a trading journal for finding what works over time, and how positioning/participation—not price—can signal when a trade is truly crowded (including how he uses Commitment of Traders data). Key takeaway: Sustainable trading isn’t about calling tops and bottoms—it’s about staying in the game. Define risk before you enter, only take trades where reward meaningfully outweighs risk, and let the market validate (or invalidate) your thesis quickly. Discipline plus a repeatable edge beats conviction every time. You can learn more about Jason's work at https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    46 min

  7. JAN 16

    Julius de Kempenaer on RRGs: Spotting Sector Rotation Before It Hits the Headlines

    Sector rotation doesn’t always show up clearly on the index chart—it often reveals itself underneath the surface. In the 83rd episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, I’m joined by Julius de Kempenaer, founder of RRG Research and creator of the Relative Rotation Graph, to discuss the late-2025 change in market character and what relative strength analysis is signaling as markets hover near all-time highs.  Recorded 12/15/25. Topics covered include:  📈 how Julius uses Relative Rotation Graphs to identify sector rotation in real time 📈 why fading tech momentum alongside improving defensive sectors can be a cautionary signal 📈 how to read RRG “heading” and momentum shifts 📈 how to combine RRGs with traditional price charts to build a disciplined, top-down workflow from asset allocation to sector selection. Key takeaway: Relative strength is most powerful when used as context, not in isolation. RRGs can highlight where leadership is improving or deteriorating, but confirmation from price and trend remains essential. When market leadership narrows or rotates toward defense, patience and discipline matter more than prediction. Julius' blog on StockCharts: https://articles.stockcharts.com/author/julius-de-kempenaer/ Julius' videos on StockChartsTV: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrQwgy7LU70BXWzU2hKOYUtM Learn more about Julius and his work: http://www.relativerotationgraphs.com/ 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    41 min

  8. JAN 16

    Seasonality Myths vs Reality: Jeff Hirsch’s 2026 Outlook (Stock Trader’s Almanac)

    Seasonality isn’t a crystal ball—it’s a framework. In the 82nd episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast , Dave chats with Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, to review what surprised us in 2025 and how seasonal tendencies, election-cycle history, and market signals can help investors set expectations for 2026. Topics covered include: what the Almanac says about midterm election years, why 2025 didn’t follow the classic seasonal script, what the Santa Claus Rally actually measures, how the “January indicator trifecta” is used as an early-year gauge, and how macro shocks can overwhelm (or reinforce) seasonal tailwinds and headwinds. Key takeaway: Use seasonality as context—not certainty. When markets don’t behave as expected during traditionally bullish or bearish windows, it can be a clue that other forces are in control. The goal is a disciplined process: understand the playbook, watch the confirmations, and stay flexible when conditions change. You can learn more about Jeff's work at https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/ and grab your copy of the 2026 Stock Trader's Almanac at https://amzn.to/4oYiQGm. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    39 min
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About

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

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