Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT
  • 4.0 (4)
  • Investing

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

  1. 2d ago

    Avoid the Momentum Trap | Find True Value with Kevin Abbott

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Kevin Abbott, Senior Sector Research Strategist at State Street Investment Management and former Fidelity colleague. Recorded in August 2026. Kevin breaks down why the "AI" label is no longer a monolithic rising tide, emphasizing the critical need to identify the winners and losers as massive hyperscaler spending trickles down into cloud computing backlogs and infrastructure hardware (like semiconductors and memory). We explore why the software sector was "sold off indiscriminately" as business models faced AI disruption, how negative free cash flow isn't always a death knell if long-term analyst estimates hold strong, and the structural advantages of using sector rotation for risk management. The conversation also explores why investors must avoid getting "swept up in the momentum of the moment" by anchoring their decisions with a stable, uncorrelated sector framework. State Street Sector Insights: https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/capabilities/equities/sector-investing/select-sector-etfs State Street on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/state-street-investment-management/ 📈 Topics Covered • Differentiating the AI ecosystem: Why "AI" is no longer a monolithic block, and how to spot the actual winners in cloud computing backlogs and infrastructure hardware • Unpacking the hyperscaler spending boom: Why massive CapEx and negative free cash flow (similar to Amazon in 2020) can still yield long-term returns • The indiscriminate software sell-off: How AI disrupted traditional seat-based software models, creating mispriced opportunities for contrarian buyers • Evaluating the "circular financing" risk: Monitoring debt levels and free cash flow in legacy tech names like Oracle • The stability of the sector framework: Why the 11 GICS sectors provide a far more consistent tracking mechanism than rapidly shifting factor models (like Value or Growth) • Strategic sector correlations: How to hedge a tech-heavy index by maintaining core exposure to negatively correlated sectors like Energy, Staples, and Real Estate • The four-legged stool of investing: Balancing Fundamental, Technical, Quantitative, and Behavioral inputs to avoid making the wrong decisions • Generating yield in a low-dividend market: Utilizing premium income sector ETFs (like XLKI) for retirees seeking both market exposure and cash flow 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  2. 5d ago

    Baking the Deficit | Investor Recipes for Success with Callie Cox

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Recorded August 11th 2026. Callie shares her data-driven approach to why optimism is a long-term investor's greatest advantage—and how to build a disciplined framework to ensure that optimism doesn't bleed into dangerous complacency. We dig into her brilliant "chocolate chip cookie" metaphor for understanding the U.S. national deficit, the massive shift of capital from public exchanges to private markets, and why an investor's primary job is filtering out financial media noise. The conversation also explores the resilient strength of corporate earnings six years post-COVID, the rising term premium in long-term Treasury yields, and why Wall Street's year-end S&P 500 price targets are nothing more than a marketing tool. If you enjoyed today's interview with Callie (I know I certainly did) be sure to help out by checking these fantastic links!  Callie's newsletter: https://www.optimisticallie.com/ Follow Callie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callie-cox-553a1a28/  📈 Topics Covered • Why historical data proves that long-term optimism is a statistical advantage, and how to avoid the trap of market complacency • Evaluating the 2026 earnings season: Sustaining 20% growth rates and navigating the divergence between mega-cap tech and consumer staples like McDonald's • The "Chocolate Chip Cookie" metaphor: How the U.S. national deficit operates like a binge-eating stomachache, slowly creeping into 30-year Treasury yields • Navigating the explosion of private markets: Weighing the illiquidity and high fees of private credit and equity against public market returns • Why 90% of financial headlines don't matter, and how to build an individualized investment framework to filter out the noise • The myth of the year-end price target: Why grasping for S&P 500 forecasts distracts investors from long-term generational wealth building • Transitioning from an emotion-based to an evidence-based process: Using probabilistic exercises to identify portfolio blind spots 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  3. Aug 7

    Three Companies Own the World | The Memory Play with Howard Chan

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Howard Chan, CEO of Kurv Investment Management. Recorded August 4th 2026. Howard breaks down why highly specialized memory chips (High Bandwidth Memory) have become the ultimate bottleneck in the AI infrastructure buildout, explaining how hyperscalers are driving up costs across the entire consumer electronics ecosystem. We dig into the massive physical constraints of expanding semiconductor supply, why the global memory market is dominated by a tight three-company oligopoly, and how to gain pure-play exposure to this theme through the new KMEM ETF. The conversation also explores how to rethink the traditional 60/40 portfolio by using institutional-style covered call strategies to harvest volatility premia and generate synthetic income from traditionally non-yielding assets like mega-cap tech and gold. If you enjoyed today's episode with our Guest Howard Chan, check out this link to Kurv ETFs: https://www.kurvinvest.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is critical for reducing AI "hallucinations" and maintaining context in frontier models like ChatGPT and Claude • The physical and capital constraints limiting new chip supply, including $50 billion fab costs and multi-year ASML equipment backlogs • How the pivot to AI memory is crowding out traditional chip manufacturing, driving up prices for consumer electronics like Xbox, Nintendo, and Apple devices • The three-company oligopoly controlling 90% of the world's memory chips: Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix • Navigating the limitations of single-country Korean ETFs and the impact of SK Hynix's recent US cross-listing • The dangers of excessive retail leverage in semiconductor momentum trades (and the recent margin call wipeouts in global markets) • Rethinking covered calls: How institutional call spread strategies allow investors to harvest volatility premia (income) without completely capping upside potential • Modernizing the 60/40 portfolio by generating synthetic yield from traditionally non-income producing assets like growth tech and precious metals 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  4. Aug 3

    Fear, Greed, and Earnings | Charting 2026 with Mary Ellen McGonagle

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mary Ellen McGonagle, President of MEM Investment Research and former colleague of legendary investor William O'Neill. Recorded July 29th 2026. Mary Ellen shares timeless investing wisdom on how fear and greed continue to drive the markets despite today's information overload. The conversation explores how to navigate the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO using historical chart analogs (like Meta/Facebook), the transition into "Phase 2" of the AI trade where actual revenue generation dictates market winners, and the critical importance of a strict sell discipline using daily RSI and moving averages. We also dig into seasonal summer volatility, identifying the "haves and have-nots" in the software sector, and a brilliant strategy for reverse-engineering passive ETF fund flows to uncover hidden individual stock breakouts. If you've enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links!  - How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil https://amzn.to/4yK1bZ7 - Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 by Maggie Mahar - MEM Investment Research:  https://meminvestmentresearch.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Timeless lessons from William O'Neill: Why fear, greed, and earnings remain the ultimate market drivers (the CANSLIM methodology) • Navigating information overload: How to filter the modern financial "fire hose" down to actionable technical insights • The SpaceX IPO playbook: Why waiting for profitability and a proper base formation beats chasing the initial euphoric spike • Entering Phase 2 of the AI trade: The shift from speculative infrastructure to actualized revenue, usage, and eventual quantum computing • Developing a strict sell discipline: Using daily RSI and 50-day moving averages to lock in profits on parabolic names like Micron • Summer seasonality: Why August brings historical volatility and how the fall often sparks renewed tech leadership (the classic "payphone indicator") • The software sector rotation: Differentiating between AI-enhancing "haves" (cybersecurity) and obsolete "have-nots" • A clever stock-picking hack: Tracking passive ETF fund flows (like the MOO Agribusiness ETF) to identify strong underlying individual holdings • Gauging true market breadth: Why the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index hitting the 30% floor signals a hidden bullish bounce despite index-level deterioration 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  5. Jul 31

    Credit, Oil, and AI | Playing Offense with JoAnne Bianco

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with JoAnne Bianco, Senior Investment Strategist at BondBlox. Recorded July 28th 2026. JoAnne shares her deep fixed-income expertise to help investors navigate the current credit environment, detailing why resilient corporate earnings and low default rates continue to support a "sweet spot" in BBB to single-B debt. The conversation explores the hidden risks of circular financing in the AI infrastructure buildout (drawing stark parallels to the early 2000s telecom bubble), the rising accessibility of middle-market private credit for everyday investors, and why elevated yields have transformed bonds from defensive portfolio insurance into a truly offensive asset class. They also discuss redefining the classic 60/40 portfolio and why focusing on income over duration is the ultimate key to managing interest rate volatility. If you enjoyed today's interview with JoAnne, please check out Bondbloxx ETFs!  https://bondbloxxetf.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why corporate credit conditions remain structurally strong with low default and distress rates across the BBB to single-B "sweet spot" • Drawing historical parallels between the early 2000s telecom overbuild and today's "circular financing" in AI infrastructure CapEx • Shifting fixed income from defense to offense: How elevated yields and coupon income are driving total returns • Rethinking the traditional 60/40 portfolio in an era of historically high equity P/E ratios and concentrated stock market leadership • The mechanics and benefits of private credit: Accessing middle-market CLOs, floating-rate assets, and lower-volatility yields • Why chasing long-duration US Treasuries poses a massive, underappreciated risk to investors in the current interest rate regime • Implementing a "Core and Explore" bond strategy: Enhancing a standard aggregate base with active bets in BB corporates and short-duration emerging markets • Identifying the ultimate red flags in the credit markets, including debt-financed M&A and concentrated speculative issuance 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  6. Jul 27

    The Socioeconomic Switch | Midterm Market '26 with Mish Schneider

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mish Schneider, Director of Trading Education at Market Gauge. Recorded July 23rd 2026. Mish shares her unique "Economic Modern Family" framework for diagnosing the true health of the US economy beyond mega-cap tech leadership. We dig into why small caps ("Grandpa Russell") have shown surprising relative strength compared to overextended tech indices, the resurgence of agricultural commodities as primary inflation barometers, and how geopolitics and El Niño droughts are fueling higher food prices. The conversation also explores the impending sentiment "switch" from "everything is fine" optimism to inflation-driven anxiety, gold's key technical pivot near $4,000/oz, and her new AI-powered short-form educational series, Trades of Our Lives. 📈 Topics Covered • The "Economic Modern Family" framework: Gauging the US domestic economy through "inside sectors" rather than mega-cap tech • Small-cap relative strength: Why "Grandpa Russell" (IWM) holding key technical levels reflects optimism in domestic manufacturing • The semiconductor cycle: Navigating CapEx pushback, data center fatigue, and consolidation in tech leadership • The agricultural commodity breakout: How El Niño droughts, fertilizer costs, and oil prices are driving DBA, wheat, and soybeans higher • Sugar as the ultimate economic barometer: Why watching soft commodities reveals true socioeconomic distress and inflation • The sentiment "switch": Preparing for the market shift from "buy-the-dip" optimism to macro anxiety • Re-allocating to Gold: Why holding the $4,000/oz level marks a key pivot point for safe-haven positioning • Midterm election seasonality: Historical market cycles, geopolitical risks, and navigating Q3/Q4 volatility • Trades of Our Lives: Using short-form AI video and soap-opera dramedy to teach trading literacy to the next generation of investors 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  7. Jul 24

    The Quantitative Richter Scale | 2026 Multi-Factor Modeling with Steve Cress

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Steve Cress, Head of Quantitative Research at Seeking Alpha. Recorded July 21st 2026. Steve explains how quantitative methodologies eliminate emotional bias and act as an early-warning "Richter scale" for broader market corrections. We dig into why momentum remains the single strongest historical predictive factor, how his team's disciplined multi-factor model has consistently outperformed dynamic hedge funds like Bridgewater, and the staggering data behind buying top-tier "Strong Buy" stocks during a 15% market drawdown. The conversation also explores the launch of the new Quant Growth and Income product, how macro shifts like interest rates naturally bake themselves into consensus EPS revisions, and why generative AI still hasn't managed to beat a purely data-driven, bottom-up quant approach at stock picking. If you enjoyed our episode today, please make sure to check out our Market Misbehaviour collaboration with Seeking Alpha! These links will give you a unique bonus off just for being a podcast viewer.   Seeking Alpha Premium: https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha Alpha Picks: https://marketmisbehavior.com/alphapicks 📈 Topics Covered • How quantitative models act as an early-warning "Richter scale" for sector rotations and market corrections • The historical data on buying the dip: Why buying top quant stocks during a 15% market drawdown creates generational wealth • Breaking down Seeking Alpha's five-factor model: Value, Growth, Profitability, EPS Revisions, and Momentum • Why momentum consistently ranks as the most powerful predictive market factor over the last 250 years • The danger of dynamic factor weighting: Why disciplined, static models often outperform complex hedge fund algorithms • How macro shifts (like rising interest rates or oil prices) are naturally priced into the model via consensus analyst EPS revisions • Assessing AI valuations on a stock-by-stock basis: Why names like Micron and SanDisk outranked Nvidia in the value grade • Launching the "Quant Growth and Income" model to capture non-tech sector rotations (like Financials) • The behavioral advantage of quant investing: Eliminating narrative bias, CEO sales pitches, and emotional panic selling • The intersection of generative AI and quantitative finance (and why AI hasn't beaten the models yet) 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  8. Jul 17

    Investing is Not Sports | 2026 Small Cap Inefficiencies with Chris Tessin

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Chris Tessin, Founder and Managing Partner at Acuitas Investments. Recorded July 14th 2026 Chris breaks down why the often-ignored small and microcap space is currently the richest corner of the market for generating alpha. We dig into how the glaring lack of Wall Street analyst coverage creates massive inefficiencies for active managers to exploit, and how a "multi-manager" approach can smooth out volatility by blending complementary investment styles. The conversation also explores the critical differences between the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 benchmarks, how the AI boom is creating "picks and shovels" opportunities in small-cap industrials, and why performance chasing fails because "investing is not sports." If you enjoyed this interview, please check out Chris Tessin's work at: https://acuitasfunds.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why the glaring lack of Wall Street analyst coverage in small and microcaps creates massive alpha opportunities • Unpacking the "multi-manager" approach: How blending complementary managers removes single-manager volatility and smooths the ride • The critical difference between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 (and why the S&P's profitability/quality screen matters) • Understanding the "Russell Rebalance": How the pruning process works as stocks grow out of the index • Finding AI "picks and shovels" plays in the small-cap industrial sector rather than chasing overvalued mega-cap tech stocks • Why investing is not sports: The psychological dangers of bandwagoning and performance chasing in your portfolio • The structural argument for maintaining a permanent, evergreen allocation to small and microcap stocks 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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About

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

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