Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT
  • 4.0 (4)
  • Investing

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

  1. 2d ago

    The Socioeconomic Switch | Midterm Market '26 with Mish Schneider

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mish Schneider, Director of Trading Education at Market Gauge. Recorded July 23rd 2026. Mish shares her unique "Economic Modern Family" framework for diagnosing the true health of the US economy beyond mega-cap tech leadership. We dig into why small caps ("Grandpa Russell") have shown surprising relative strength compared to overextended tech indices, the resurgence of agricultural commodities as primary inflation barometers, and how geopolitics and El Niño droughts are fueling higher food prices. The conversation also explores the impending sentiment "switch" from "everything is fine" optimism to inflation-driven anxiety, gold's key technical pivot near $4,000/oz, and her new AI-powered short-form educational series, Trades of Our Lives. 📈 Topics Covered • The "Economic Modern Family" framework: Gauging the US domestic economy through "inside sectors" rather than mega-cap tech • Small-cap relative strength: Why "Grandpa Russell" (IWM) holding key technical levels reflects optimism in domestic manufacturing • The semiconductor cycle: Navigating CapEx pushback, data center fatigue, and consolidation in tech leadership • The agricultural commodity breakout: How El Niño droughts, fertilizer costs, and oil prices are driving DBA, wheat, and soybeans higher • Sugar as the ultimate economic barometer: Why watching soft commodities reveals true socioeconomic distress and inflation • The sentiment "switch": Preparing for the market shift from "buy-the-dip" optimism to macro anxiety • Re-allocating to Gold: Why holding the $4,000/oz level marks a key pivot point for safe-haven positioning • Midterm election seasonality: Historical market cycles, geopolitical risks, and navigating Q3/Q4 volatility • Trades of Our Lives: Using short-form AI video and soap-opera dramedy to teach trading literacy to the next generation of investors 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  2. 5d ago

    The Quantitative Richter Scale | 2026 Multi-Factor Modeling with Steve Cress

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Steve Cress, Head of Quantitative Research at Seeking Alpha. Recorded July 21st 2026. Steve explains how quantitative methodologies eliminate emotional bias and act as an early-warning "Richter scale" for broader market corrections. We dig into why momentum remains the single strongest historical predictive factor, how his team's disciplined multi-factor model has consistently outperformed dynamic hedge funds like Bridgewater, and the staggering data behind buying top-tier "Strong Buy" stocks during a 15% market drawdown. The conversation also explores the launch of the new Quant Growth and Income product, how macro shifts like interest rates naturally bake themselves into consensus EPS revisions, and why generative AI still hasn't managed to beat a purely data-driven, bottom-up quant approach at stock picking. If you enjoyed our episode today, please make sure to check out our Market Misbehaviour collaboration with Seeking Alpha! These links will give you a unique bonus off just for being a podcast viewer.   Seeking Alpha Premium: https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha Alpha Picks: https://marketmisbehavior.com/alphapicks 📈 Topics Covered • How quantitative models act as an early-warning "Richter scale" for sector rotations and market corrections • The historical data on buying the dip: Why buying top quant stocks during a 15% market drawdown creates generational wealth • Breaking down Seeking Alpha's five-factor model: Value, Growth, Profitability, EPS Revisions, and Momentum • Why momentum consistently ranks as the most powerful predictive market factor over the last 250 years • The danger of dynamic factor weighting: Why disciplined, static models often outperform complex hedge fund algorithms • How macro shifts (like rising interest rates or oil prices) are naturally priced into the model via consensus analyst EPS revisions • Assessing AI valuations on a stock-by-stock basis: Why names like Micron and SanDisk outranked Nvidia in the value grade • Launching the "Quant Growth and Income" model to capture non-tech sector rotations (like Financials) • The behavioral advantage of quant investing: Eliminating narrative bias, CEO sales pitches, and emotional panic selling • The intersection of generative AI and quantitative finance (and why AI hasn't beaten the models yet) 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  3. Jul 17

    Investing is Not Sports | 2026 Small Cap Inefficiencies with Chris Tessin

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Chris Tessin, Founder and Managing Partner at Acuitas Investments. Recorded July 14th 2026 Chris breaks down why the often-ignored small and microcap space is currently the richest corner of the market for generating alpha. We dig into how the glaring lack of Wall Street analyst coverage creates massive inefficiencies for active managers to exploit, and how a "multi-manager" approach can smooth out volatility by blending complementary investment styles. The conversation also explores the critical differences between the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 benchmarks, how the AI boom is creating "picks and shovels" opportunities in small-cap industrials, and why performance chasing fails because "investing is not sports." If you enjoyed this interview, please check out Chris Tessin's work at: https://acuitasfunds.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why the glaring lack of Wall Street analyst coverage in small and microcaps creates massive alpha opportunities • Unpacking the "multi-manager" approach: How blending complementary managers removes single-manager volatility and smooths the ride • The critical difference between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 (and why the S&P's profitability/quality screen matters) • Understanding the "Russell Rebalance": How the pruning process works as stocks grow out of the index • Finding AI "picks and shovels" plays in the small-cap industrial sector rather than chasing overvalued mega-cap tech stocks • Why investing is not sports: The psychological dangers of bandwagoning and performance chasing in your portfolio • The structural argument for maintaining a permanent, evergreen allocation to small and microcap stocks 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  4. Jul 14

    Let the Stock Tell You What to Do | Tune Out The Macro Noise with Tony Gallea

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by market veteran Tony Gallea, CEO of Working Profit and author of the classic investment text Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered. Recorded July 9th 2026. Tony draws on his illustrious 45-year career at Morgan Stanley to help investors tune out overwhelming macro noise and focus on locating structurally undervalued assets. We dig into his grounded take on the AI trade—likening generative AI to an overeager, unpaid intern prone to rookie mistakes—and analyze why the semiconductor boom is a classic "pig through the python" cycle. The conversation also explores Tony's early days updating printed Mansfield charts by hand in the late 1970s, his disciplined process for separating genuine value from dangerous value traps using activist catalysts, and why letting the stock price tell you what to do is vastly superior to getting lost in complex macro forecasting. Working Profit newsletter https://workingprofit.com/ Contrarian Investing https://amzn.to/4peRYn5 Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered https://amzn.to/4yfdZX3 📈 Topics Covered • Tony's realistic perspective on the AI trade: Treating large language models as eager, junior research interns whose work cannot be blindly trusted • The "pig through the python" capital expenditure cycle of data centers and semiconductors, drawing stark psychological parallels to the 2000 dot-com bubble • Embracing a pure stock-picker's mindset: Looking at the market as a fluid system of "source of funds vs. use of funds" to buy uncool, defensive assets at deep discounts • Deconstructing value traps: Combining deep asset calculations (like Target's real estate or Honeywell's sum-of-the-parts setup) with near-term activist investor catalysts • Tuning out the macro noise: Why trying to factor in the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and election-year defense sector gyrations introduces unnecessary uncertainty • Old-school technical analysis: Reflecting on the pre-digital era of the 1970s and 1980s, where practitioners queued at the office door for weekly printed Mansfield chart binders • The critical baseline decision: Forcing yourself to define whether you are operating on a short-term trading lease or a long-term investment horizon 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  5. Jul 9

    The Glass-Half-Full Trap? | 2026 Iran Complacency & Inflation with Jeff Klingelhofer

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with fixed-income portfolio manager and veteran Fed observer Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific Capital. Recorded July 7th 2026. Jeff shares his perspective on the monumental regime shift at the Federal Reserve following Kevin Warsh’s first official FOMC meeting and press conference in June. We pull back the curtain on the Fed's "triple mandate," why the era of aggressive forward guidance and central bank transparency is likely coming to an end, and why the market's "glass-half-full" complacency regarding the conflict with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz introduces significant hidden risk. The conversation also breaks down the structural mechanics of the flattening yield curve, why a rate hike is currently more statistically probable than a cut, and how to intelligently structure the 40% fixed-income sleeve of a balanced portfolio using intermediate-duration Treasuries yielding mid-5% to low-6% returns. 📈 Topics Covered • Navigating the Fed's learning curve: Assessing incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's initial policy moves and the formation of five new task forces • The true definition of the Federal Reserve’s triple mandate: Balancing price stability, maximum employment, and moderate long-term interest rates • The unwinding of Fed transparency: Why a high-inflation environment requires significantly less forward guidance than the zero-rate eras of the past • Analyzing Jerome Powell's historical legacy: Major wins during the global pandemic balanced against being too slow to acknowledge systemic inflation in 2021–2022 • Deconstructing the yield curve: How Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility is driving front-end rates up while narrowing long-term uncertainty • Debunking rate-cut expectations: Why the Fed is likely to remain completely on hold indefinitely unless a full-blown economic recession materializes • Geopolitical complacency: The dangerous disconnect between active Middle East tensions, erratic oil prices, and baseline market expectations • The structural strength of the US Dollar: Evaluating interest rate differentials and the rising cost of servicing US national debt (now consuming 20% of revenue) • Redefining the 60/40 portfolio: Positioning into high-quality, intermediate-duration (3-to-7 year) credit as a true defensive asset ballast 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  6. Jul 5

    Entry Points Are Absolute | 2026 Minimalist Charting with Carter Worth

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by legendary technical analyst Carter Worth, Founder and CEO of Worth Charting and CNBC's "Chart Master." Recorded July 1st 2026. Carter shares his timeless, price-and-volume-centric approach to market analysis, stripping away the noise of macro headlines and complex oscillators. We dig into why context is the ultimate lens for understanding price action, the enduring value of hand-drawing charts to truly feel the rhythm of institutional money flow, and how the current market's severe tech bifurcation signals a classic "shooting the generals last" environment. The conversation also explores Carter's core risk management principle that "entry points are absolute, exit points are subjective," alongside the exact data-science rules driving his newly launched Worth Charting Options Income ETF (WRTH). If you enjoyed this episode's insights and would like to dive deeper, please check out Carter's website at: https://www.worthcharting.com/ Also check out the Worth Charting Options ETF!: https://worthchartinggroup.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • The fundamental philosophy of price action: Why the study of price and volume ultimately trumps corporate fundamentals • Contextualizing the 2026 market sequence: Interpreting June’s sloppy, sideways consolidation as a healthy, normative pause following May’s aggressive post-conflict recovery • Minimalist technical tools: Eliminating analytical clutter by focusing strictly on the high, low, close, volume, relative strength, and the 150-day moving average • Lessons from mentor Vincent Boening: Embracing the "lost art" of updating graph paper charts by hand to accurately gauge the physical behavior of capital • The fragility of tech bifurcation: Navigating a market where investors cluster into a shrinking handful of overextended semiconductor generals while abandoning entire software spaces • The contrarian case for energy: Why severe relative underperformance has left defensive giants like Exxon and Chevron "so bad they're good" contrarian buys • Managing the downside: Why there is nothing wrong with being wrong, but why sticking with a high-volume gap-down is a catastrophic error • Inside the WRTH ETF: Utilizing cash-secured, out-of-the-money strangles on large-caps specifically after a 10% earnings gap to capture immediate volatility crush and time decay 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  7. Jul 4

    Separation of Money and State | 2026 Decentralized Finance with Mike Willis

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mike Willis, CEO of Cyber Hornet ETFs. Recorded June 30th 2026. Mike shares his journey from spending 30 years in traditional finance (TradFi) to fully embracing decentralized finance (DeFi) after diving into the immutable math behind Bitcoin. We dig into the stark contrast between unchecked fiat currency debasement and Bitcoin's absolute scarcity, why the massive energy expenditure used for mining is actually a foundational security feature, and the structural advantages of a 75/25 (S&P 500/Bitcoin) portfolio allocation. The conversation also explores how Cyber Hornet's monthly rebalancing mechanism acts as a vital guardrail to protect clients from devastating "crypto winters" while still allowing them to capture outsized upside. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 🎯 Upgrade your market awareness with Seeking Alpha Premium https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior 📈 Topics Covered • Mike's transition from Wall Street traditional finance to embracing Bitcoin and the DeFi ecosystem • The contrast between the Federal Reserve's unchecked monetary printing and Bitcoin's hard-capped 21-million coin scarcity • Why the significant electricity cost required for Bitcoin mining (roughly $53,000 per coin) serves as a critical network feature, not a bug • The psychology behind Cyber Hornet's BBB ETF: Combining 75% S&P 500 with 25% Bitcoin to find the "sleep-at-night" volatility sweet spot • Why a strict monthly rebalancing strategy is the ultimate key to surviving 50-70% drawdowns during "crypto winters" • Why pure technical analysis works exceptionally well for analyzing Bitcoin due to its lack of corporate management or product cycles • How decentralized, borderless networks offer frictionless financial sovereignty to the two billion unbanked people worldwide 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  8. Jun 26

    When Math Meets the Market | The Kelly Criterion in 2026 with Andrew Skatoff

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Andrew Skatoff, CEO and CIO of Bancreek Capital Advisors. Andrew shares his journey from traditional, deep-dive fundamental value investing to a highly systematic, quantitative approach. We dig into the data science behind the Kelly Criterion and how to apply gambling's "edge and odds" to optimize stock position sizing without risking gambler's ruin. The conversation explores the massive tax and behavioral benefits of the ETF wrapper, why the sweet spot for portfolio concentration sits between 30 and 50 stocks, and the strategy behind his new Billionaire's Club ETF, which uses founder wealth creation as a definitive signal for structural business advantages. If you enjoyed today's interview with Andrew Skatoff, be sure to check out his firms Billionaire's Club ETF!  https://www.billionairesclubetf.com/ And don't forget the book we discussed, Fortune's Formula. If you would like to pick up a copy for yourself, or just see what the book is all about, check out this link!  https://amzn.to/3SpOq5h 📈 Topics Covered • Andrew's transition from traditional fundamental value investing to a data-driven systematic approach • Understanding the Kelly Criterion: How to mathematically size positions based on edge and odds • The danger of going "Super Kelly" and why over-betting destroys long-term compounding • Identifying structurally advantaged businesses (monopolies, high margin stability) using volatility metrics • Why the ideal portfolio concentration sweet spot sits between 25 and 50 stocks • The psychological and tax advantages of using the ETF wrapper to eliminate behavioral anchoring and manage turnover • Lessons from the Great Financial Crisis: Why the "path" of volatility matters just as much as the overall return • The strategy behind the new Billionaire's Club ETF: Using founder wealth creation as a long-term momentum and durability signal 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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About

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

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