Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT
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On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

  1. 4D AGO

    Don't Get Too Defensive Yet | 2026 Market Volatility with Ross Mayfield

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Ross Mayfield, an Investment Strategist for Baird Private Wealth Management. Recorded 3/31/26. Ross shares his macro perspective on navigating a highly volatile and shifting 2026 market. We dig into why corporate earnings are the ultimate line in the sand for maintaining the bull market, the shifting landscape of AI valuations, and why energy has become an essential geopolitical portfolio hedge. We also discuss the "meme-stock-ification" of silver, how to spot a market bottom using the discretionary-versus-staples ratio, and why the biggest risk to equities right now would be the Fed hiking rates into a commodity-driven energy shock. 📈 Topics Covered • Transitioning into a high-volatility, high-dispersion market regime • Why earnings stability and guidance dictate the difference between a correction and a bear market • Evaluating the AI sector: Attractive forward multiples versus broken technical charts • The self-correcting nature of crude oil demand and energy as a mandatory portfolio hedge • Gold's "sell the news" reaction and the sudden meme-stock-ification of silver • The necessity of evolving the traditional 60/40 portfolio with alternative assets • Using the equal-weight Discretionary vs. Staples ratio ("the best economist on Wall Street") to spot risk-on market bottoms • The danger of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates into an energy supply shock 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    31 min

  2. 6D AGO

    Market Breadth and Moving Averages: Navigating a Sideways Market feat. Stephen Suttmeier

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Stephen Suttmeier, founder of Suttmeier Technical Strategies. Recorded 3/18/26.  Steve shares what he’s learned from his extensive career on Wall Street, including his time working alongside legendary technicians like Bob Farrell and Mary Ann Bartels. We dig into his daily progression process for evaluating macro markets, the critical role of absolute versus relative price charts, and his strategic use of specific weekly moving averages. The conversation also explores current market breadth, the recent struggles of mega-cap growth stocks, his four-bucket framework for sector rotation, and how financial advisors can seamlessly translate complex technical analysis into actionable insights for their clients. 📈 Topics Covered • The legacy of technical analysis at Merrill Lynch and learning from industry legends • Defining secular and cyclical trends using 13, 26, 40, and 200-week moving averages • Analyzing market breadth via advance/decline lines and the new highs versus new lows spread • Evaluating the current market dynamic of equal-weight outperformance versus mega-cap weakness • The "four-bucket" methodology for categorizing absolute and relative stock performance to find leadership • Identifying sector rotations, including the recent strength in Technology versus Staples • Practical ways financial advisors can integrate technical nuggets and risk management into client communications 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    39 min

  3. MAR 26

    AI, Natural Gas, and the Middle East: Navigating Energy Supply Shocks feat. Rob Hummel

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Rob Thummel, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager at Tortoise Capital. Recorded 3/17/26. Rob shares what he’s learned from 30 years of investing in the energy sector, including his perspective on navigating unprecedented global supply shocks. We dig into the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, the critical differences between WTI and Brent crude, the mechanics of Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), how the AI boom is supercharging natural gas demand, and why high free cash flow and dividend yields matter so much in a tricky 2026 environment. 📈 Topics Covered • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its immediate impact on global oil supply • Key differences between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil benchmarks • The role of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during supply disruptions • How US energy independence and shale technology buffer against hyper-inflationary oil prices • The fundamental shift in energy sector balance sheets toward high free cash flow and dividend yields • Understanding Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and their unique structure • How the massive electricity demand required for AI data centers is driving the long-term bull case for natural gas 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    29 min

  4. MAR 19

    Price Follows Expectations: Navigating Earnings Gaps and Market Momentum feat. Alex Carteau

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Alex Carteau, president and co-founder of EPSMomentum. Recorded 3/12/26. Alex shares what he’s learned from years of analyzing stock performance, including his firsthand experience working with institutional investors and analysts during his time at Bloomberg. We dig into the true relationship between price and earnings, the critical difference between raw earnings and earnings acceleration, how to navigate the intense volatility of earnings gaps, and why understanding post-earnings drift and technical indicators like Average True Range matters so much in a tricky 2026 macro environment. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    38 min

  5. MAR 12

    CANSLIM in a Sideways Market: What Changes and What Doesn't feat. Justin Nielsen

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Justin Nielsen, Market Research Director at Investor’s Business Daily. Recorded 3/10/26. Justin shares what he’s learned from years of applying the William O’Neil methodology, including his firsthand experience working with Bill O’Neil himself. We dig into market awareness, idea generation, the challenge of sideways markets, how CANSMLinvestors think about market direction, and why flexibility, humility, and disciplined risk management matter so much in a tricky 2026 environment. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    42 min

  6. MAR 6

    Ignore the Noise: Lindsey Bell on Earnings, Inflation, and What Investors Should Watch

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Investment Strategist at 248 Ventures. We dig into one of the most important themes for investors in 2026: why earnings still matter more than headlines. Lindsey explains how market narratives around AI, inflation, and geopolitics can distract from the evidence that really drives long-term returns—revenue growth, margins, productivity, and consumer behavior. We also explore the rotation from AI producers to AI users, why consumer staples are quietly improving, and how logistics, transportation, and selected retail names may be telling a stronger story than many investors realize.  Recorded 3/5/26. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    39 min

  7. MAR 4

    George Noble: Regime Change, Gold to $7,000, and Why the AI Trade Is Breaking

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by legendary investor George Noble. George began his career as an intern for Peter Lynch at Fidelity and later managed the Fidelity Overseas Fund, which at one point was the number one mutual fund in the world. We dig into what George sees as a major regime shift in 2026: rotation over recession, real assets over liquidity trades, and valuation over narrative. We discuss the unwind of the AI euphoria, why price is not the same as value, the case for energy and precious metals, and George’s strong views on gold versus Bitcoin. Along the way, he shares timeless lessons on humility, conviction, and avoiding the trap of emotional attachment to positions. Check out George Noble's newsletter https://georgenoble.substack.com/ and also sign up for his upcoming event on March 11th at https://noble-capevents.com/. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    54 min

  8. FEB 28

    Forget Predictions | Price, Price, Price Is All You Need in 2026! featuring Clint Sorenson

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Clint Sorenson, CMT, Co-Founder of Ascentis Asset Management. We dig into how Clint uses technical analysis as a complete decision-making and communication system—from his “price, price, price” philosophy to his GRIP framework (Growth, Risk appetite, Inflation, Policy). Clint explains why market indices don’t always “confirm” economic data, why factor rotation often tells the story better, and how intermarket relationships (credit, commodities, global equities, crypto, and more) help identify regime change.  We also explore the weekly/monthly routines that keep him consistent—and how advisors can use technical tools to build trust and communicate more clearly with clients.  Recorded 2/25/26. You can learn more about Clint's work at https://www.linkedin.com/in/csorensoncfacmt/ and https://ascentisasset.com. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    42 min
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Ratings & Reviews

3.7
out of 5
3 Ratings

About

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

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