Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT
  • 4.2 (5)
  • Investing

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

  1. Sep 27

    The Market's Only Job | 2026 Options & Trading Psychology with JJ Kinahan

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by JJ Kinahan, Senior Vice President at Cboe Global Markets. Recorded September 24th 2026. JJ shares timeless trading wisdom from his early days as a pit trader, explaining why learning to "break even" and cut losers is the most critical survival skill for any investor. We dig into why equity traders should always consult the options chain to understand the implied move of a stock, how the VIX serves as a risk monitor (and why a reading over 25 demands your attention), and the rise of Zero DTE (Days to Expiration) options as a precise hedging tool for both retail and institutional traders. The conversation also explores Cboe's push into SEC-regulated prediction markets, allowing investors to trade specific corporate KPIs (like Amazon Web Services revenue) rather than relying on the unpredictable stock reactions that often follow earnings reports. 📈 Topics Covered • Timeless trading wisdom: Why surviving the first six months in the options pit required learning to break even and ruthlessly cut losing trades • Using options data for equity trading: Why checking the "implied move" of a stock (e.g., Apple or Netflix) prevents emotional decision-making when volatility strikes • The truth about 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options: How the market is evenly split between retail speculation and precise institutional daily hedging • Understanding the VIX: Why a reading of 15 is a green-yellow light, 20 is a yellow light, and 25 is a flashing warning to pay attention • The psychological power of trading in "partials": Why scaling in and out of risk prevents the catastrophic "all-or-nothing" panic selling that plagues retail investors • Navigating the new frontier of SEC-regulated prediction markets: Trading specific corporate KPIs (like Home Depot's Home & Garden revenue) rather than the overall stock price • Generating synthetic yield: How selling covered calls (thinking in terms of the strike price plus premium) allows investors to enhance returns while defining their exit points • Why "Hope" is a dangerous four-letter word: The fatal mistake of turning a defined short-term trade into a long-term investment because it went against you 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  2. Sep 24

    Don't Jump in Front of the Freight Train! | 2026 Tech Dominance & RRGs with Julius de Kempenaer

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Julius de Kempenaer, Founder of RRG Research and creator of the Relative Rotation Graph. Recorded September 22nd 2026. Celebrating the 20th anniversary of the RRG's early development, Julius shares masterclass-level techniques for reading rotation, emphasizing why the 0 to 90-degree "northeast heading" is the ultimate technical sweet spot. We dig into why horrible market breadth doesn't matter when the mega-cap tech "freight train" (MAG7 and XLK) makes up 50% of the index and is breaking out to new highs, making shorting a catastrophic mistake. The conversation also explores advanced RRG tactics like swapping benchmarks to find hidden alpha in weak sectors, mapping absolute returns using the $ONE benchmark, and identifying the stealth rotation of defensive sectors that signals a true market warning. 📈 Topics Covered • Celebrating 20 years of the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG): From early scatter plots at Fidelity to a staple visualization on global financial terminals • Mastering the RRG "heading": Why a 0 to 90-degree northeast trajectory is the most powerful indicator of relative strength and momentum • The "freight train" market: Why horrible underlying breadth is completely overridden when Technology and the MAG7 are pushing toward all-time highs • Advanced benchmark swapping: How institutional managers change the center point to SPY or $ONE to find hidden outperforming stocks inside lagging sectors • The ultimate market warning sign: Watching defensive sectors (Utilities, Staples, Healthcare) quietly push into the "Improving" quadrant while offensive sectors roll over • Reconciling multiple timeframes: How to read a sector like Energy that is firmly "Leading" on the weekly RRG but taking a negative-heading breather on the daily chart • Why technical analysts have the luxury of reacting to the market's reality rather than trying to predict the exact peak of a momentum cycle 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  3. Sep 13

    It's All About the Timeframe | Riding the Elliott Wave with Kyle Crystal

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Kyle Crystal, CMT, founder of Lake Shore Technical Analysis and portfolio manager at Crystal Capital Advisors. Recorded September 10th 2026. Kyle discusses his unique journey from studying jazz guitar to becoming a portfolio manager, exploring the deep cognitive parallels between reading musical scores and analyzing technical chart slopes. We dig into his rigorous approach to multiple timeframe analysis, why he strictly lives in the "weekly-to-daily" sweet spot to stay profitable and happy, and how the 2009 financial crisis proved that a company's fundamentals are often entirely disconnected from its stock price. The conversation also explores the misunderstood genius of Elliott Wave theory for defining risk and reward, the critical difference between forecasting "things that walk" (equities/meats) versus "things that grow" (grains), and the painful lessons learned from applying the wrong momentum tools to the wrong asset classes. 📈 Topics Covered • The musician's edge in finance: Exploring the visual, right-brain connections between reading jazz charts and analyzing technical price action • Surviving the 2009 crash: Why Kyle abandoned pure fundamental analysis after realizing that a great company does not necessarily equal a great stock • Decoding multiple timeframes: Mapping the exact duration and magnitude expectations for daily, weekly, and monthly chart signals • The "Weekly-to-Daily" sweet spot: Why living in higher timeframes causes delayed reactions, while zooming in too close destroys your lifestyle • Demystifying Elliott Wave theory: How to correctly use wave structures as a "logic calculator" to strictly define risk and reward levels • Why Elliott Wave gets a bad reputation: The danger of analysts trying to predict massive, multi-year macro structures instead of actionable, near-term waves • The "Walk vs. Grow" framework: Understanding the distinct personality differences between trading equities/meats ("things that walk") versus grains/softs ("things that grow") • Learning through pain: How failing in the commodities market taught Kyle that standard equity momentum oscillators do not easily translate to agricultural futures 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  4. Sep 12

    965 Billion | How The Mag 3 TRIPLED Amazons all time profits with Kevin Carter

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with Kevin Carter, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of EMQQ Global and EMX ETF. Recorded September 8th 2026. Kevin breaks down the global AI ecosystem into a distinct "five-layer stack," explaining why emerging markets—specifically Taiwan, South Korea, and China—control the most critical infrastructure and hardware components powering the revolution. We dig into the staggering profitability of the "Mag Three" hardware leaders (TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix), why China's open-source AI models are quietly powering 80% of US startups at a fraction of the cost, and how the new China AI Tigers ETF (TGRZ) captures the highly volatile "magic layer" of large language models. The conversation also explores the massive geopolitical risks surrounding ASML lithography machines, China's massive energy capacity advantage, and how application-layer giants like Mercado Libre are successfully monetizing AI to accelerate revenue today. Links: China AI Tigers LLM ETF (TGRZ) https://emxetf.com/ The Emerging Markets Internet ETF (EMQQ) https://emqqglobaletfs.com/emqq-fund-materials 📈 Topics Covered • Breaking down the five-layer AI stack: Energy, Chips, Data Centers, Models, and Applications • The "Mag Three" windfall: Why TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix are projected to generate a staggering $965 billion in combined profits • The open-source model advantage: How Chinese AI labs (the "Tigers") offer cheaper, highly competitive models that can be run locally • The startup reliance: Why an estimated 80% of US startups are currently utilizing China's open-source AI models • Geopolitical choke points: The ongoing battle over ASML extreme ultraviolet lithography machines and China's push for semiconductor self-sufficiency • China's massive power advantage: Why having three times the energy capacity of the US, Europe, and India combined is critical for the global AI race • Evaluating the extreme "11 out of 10" volatility and geopolitical risks of investing in the new TGRZ ETF • The Application Layer in action: How emerging market giants like Mercado Libre and Tencent are successfully monetizing digital AI to accelerate revenue today 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  5. Sep 9

    The Fine Art of Doing Nothing | The Fly and Die IPO with Dave Landry

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by veteran trader, educator, and founder of davelandry.com, Dave Landry. Recorded September 2nd 2026. Dave shares his minimalist approach to the markets, explaining why stripping away complex indicators to focus on pure price action is the ultimate key to trading consistency. The conversation dives deeply into the psychology of patience—highlighting why highly successful professionals often make the worst traders because they are conditioned to always take action. We explore his specific money management rules for scaling out of positions, the mechanics of his TFM (Trend Following Moron) 10% system designed to completely sidestep devastating bear markets, and why market cycles are compressing due to rampant leverage. They also break down his technical playbook for IPOs, examining the "fly and die" pattern that recently played out in the SpaceX IPO. 📈 Topics Covered • Why adding complex technical indicators is a trap, and how the ultimate enlightenment comes from stripping it all back to a blank chart • The psychology of patience: Why highly proactive, successful professionals (like doctors and lawyers) often make the worst traders • Scaling out for a "free ride": Taking half off, moving stops to break even, and letting the remaining position capture the long-term trend • The TFM (Trend Following Moron) 10% system: A brilliantly simple moving-average rule to keep you out of devastating bear markets • Trading the SpaceX IPO: Understanding the "fly and die" cycle and why you should never buy a new issue before its fifth day of trading • Time compression in modern markets: Why excessive derivatives and leverage are shortening bull-bear cycles, making short-selling a necessary skill • The dangers of "mental monetization" (e.g., boat shopping while in a winning trade) and how extraneous life influences destroy trading discipline 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  6. Sep 7

    The AI Shaped Economy | Big Money but Big Problems with Hardika Singh

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Hardika Singh, Economic Strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Recorded September 1st 2026. Hardika discusses her fascinating career transition from a skeptical Wall Street Journal reporter to a data-driven, optimistic strategist working alongside Tom Lee. We dig into why the 10-year Treasury yield acts as the "god" of the economy, the stark realities of the K-shaped economic divide where older demographics thrive while younger workers are crushed by interest rates, and why the recent inflation data might actually be a massive measurement error stemming from recreational software costs. The conversation also explores the psychology behind the "debasement trade" (and why Gold has more staying power than Bitcoin), and the eerie cultural divide between San Francisco's AI obsession and the looming threat of white-collar job destruction. Hardika's research on Fundstrat Direct: https://fundstratdirect.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Hardika's transition from the inherent skepticism of financial journalism (at the WSJ) to the data-driven optimism required of an economic strategist • Why the 10-year Treasury yield is the "god" of the economy, and why crossing the 5% threshold is the ultimate red flag for equity valuations • The harsh realities of the K-shaped economy: How high interest rates disproportionately reward older, asset-heavy demographics while crushing younger consumers • Deconstructing the latest core PCE inflation data: Why a spike in "recreational goods" (driven by a measurement error in computer software CPI) is artificially inflating the numbers • The "Debasement Trade" explained: Why Gold remains a more practical safe-haven asset than Bitcoin as deficit and dollar worries mount • The eerie AI culture shock: Comparing the ubiquitous, billboard-heavy AI euphoria of San Francisco with the looming threat of mass white-collar job destruction • The generational AI divide: Why younger workers face the risk of becoming a "permanent underclass" if they rely on generative AI instead of developing critical thinking skills • Why the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" remains the ultimate, underappreciated treasure trove of anecdotal economic data 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  7. Aug 29

    The Founder Factor | Selling Hired CEOs with Lauren Cassidy

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Lauren Cassidy, Founder and CIO of Founder ETFs. Recorded in late August 2026. Lauren details her proprietary "Founder Factor Framework," explaining how her team filters thousands of founder-led companies down to the top 100 based on fundamental quality and valuation metrics. We dig into the stark difference between conservative hired managers and visionary founders, why her research shows that a stock should be sold the moment a founder steps down (using Viking Cruises as a prime example), and how the recent software "SaaSpocalypse" created a massive valuation reset for AI-integrated software companies like Datadog and Palantir. The conversation also explores the danger of the "Metaverse pivot," navigating the SpaceX IPO, and why implementing an 80% systematic/20% discretionary strategy is the ultimate behavioral guardrail for investors. If you enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links!   Founders 100 ETF: https://www.founderetfs.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • The fundamental difference in capital allocation and risk tolerance between a visionary original founder and a conservative hired corporate manager • Filtering the universe: How the "Founder Factor Framework" narrows 1,000 eligible founder-led securities down to an actively managed 100-stock portfolio • Navigating the software "SaaSpocalypse": Why the initial panic that "AI will replace software" created a generational valuation reset for companies like Datadog and Palantir • The absolute sell signal: Why 27 years of data shows you must sell a stock immediately when a founder announces they are stepping down (e.g., Viking Cruises) • Avoiding the "Growth in Disguise" trap: How a disciplined focus on cash flow, moats, and the "Rule of 40" separates true founder alpha from passive Nasdaq 100 exposure • Evaluating the SpaceX IPO: Balancing visionary potential against initial high-valuation hurdles and free cash flow generation • The 80/20 behavioral guardrail: Why keeping a process 80% systematic and 20% discretionary protects investors from emotional panic at market extremes • The Mark Zuckerberg metaverse pivot: Understanding the unique "moral authority" a founder has to drastically reverse course and shift corporate strategy overnight 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  8. Aug 24

    The Weight of the Evidence | Tech Mania Tips with Katie Stockton

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Katie Stockton, Founder of Fairlead Strategies. Recorded in mid-August 2026. Katie shares how she transitioned from a subjective, narrative-driven technical analyst into a highly disciplined, rules-based portfolio manager. We dig into why technical analysis isn't about predicting the future, but rather putting the "weight of the evidence" in your favor to ensure you never stay on the wrong side of a trend. The conversation explores the mechanics behind her Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK)—which equal-weights sectors to provide necessary ballast against massive mega-cap tech concentration—and how she uses multiple timeframes to reconcile lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators. We also discuss the strategy behind her newly launched Tactical Bitcoin ETF (BNAV), applying traditional trend-following rules to the extreme volatility and consolidation phases of crypto. If You've enjoyed today's interview with Katie Stockton, please check out one of these Links! Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF: https://www.fairleadfunds.com/ Amplify Fairlead Tactical Bitcoin ETF: https://amplifyetfs.com/bnav/ 📈 Topics Covered • Shifting from prediction to probabilities: Why technical analysis is fundamentally about recognizing when the evidence has changed to keep trends on your side • The hierarchy of technical indicators: Why price and trend must always supersede momentum and breadth in a rules-based system • Managing the "tech-heavy" benchmark problem: Using an equal-weight tactical sector approach (via the TACK ETF) to provide portfolio ballast and capture rotations into Energy or Materials • Reconciling conflicting signals: How to balance lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators across multiple timeframes • Overcoming the fear of "Overbought": Why an overbought RSI reading in a primary uptrend is often the beginning of a massive run rather than a sell signal • The tactical approach to Bitcoin: Applying trend-following technicals to a 24/7 global commodity characterized by prolonged consolidations and explosive volatility • Removing emotional bias: Why adopting a systematic, rules-based process is the ultimate defense against confirmation bias and behavioral "bonehead" mistakes 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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4.2
out of 5
5 Ratings

About

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

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