Paulitical Economy™

Paul Musson

A snapshot of what’s going on in the world’s economy. 

  1. Jun 22

    Post 372: Social Security Insolvency, Boomer Bailouts, and What the Bitcoin-to-Zero Argument Gets Wrong

    After many quarters of negative U.S. sales growth, Yum! Brands decides to offload its Pizza Hut business.But Taco Bell is still ringing in strong sales growth.The Starbucks turnaround plan seems to be working.A look at wealth disparity in the U.S.And how the older generation has benefited from central bank policiesAt the expense of the next generation.Lululemon’s North American Sales kick off the year by accelerating downwards.But management thinks they’re off to a good start.Apple’s sales soar due to the popularity of its new iPhone 17.A quick look at some price increases in America over the last five years.Social Security in the U.S. will now be insolvent by 2032.And a look at some solutions.Ontario’s housing market is struggling.And could get worse.Canada’s government comes to the rescue with a taxpayer-funded baby boomer bailout.In Financial Ructions:Technology stocks have now eclipsed their 1999 peak weighting within the S&P500.But their share of earnings has gone up even more.That doesn’t mean that they’re cheap.A look at an op-ed that says Bitcoin is going to zero.But it makes some assumptions I don’t agree with.Book Review: Onward by Howard Schultz (Starbucks)We see the importance of empowerment and letting go.A lesson our policymakers have unlearned.A quote from legendary Costco CEO Jim Sinegal.The importance of investing in your customers.And the importance of corporate culture.

  2. May 25

    Post 368: Energy Shock, Mortgage Shock, and a Stretched Consumer

    The fallout from the Iran war in terms of rising energy prices may just be beginning.US gas prices are up 45% from last year.Canadians renewing their 5-year fixed rate mortgages in 2026 will see the biggest shock yet to their monthly payments.More Americans are moving from California and New York to Texas and Florida.Wendy’s same-store sales have declined in the U.S. for five straight quarters.Its share price is back to where it was in 1993.McDonald’s has had four straight quarters of positive comparable store US sales growth.Although consumer sentiment is worsening and the next quarter will not be as strong.And a look back.Walmart continues to drive impressive same-store sales growth in the U.S. although their most recent print is the lowest in two years.And they too are seeing cracks in consumer sentiment.Lowe’s eeks out a comparable store sales gain.But notes that this is the most difficult housing market since the Great Financial Crisis.Campbell’s Soup has only seen one quarter of adjusted sales growth out of the last ten.It is walking back some price increases on chips and like Pepsi/Frito Lay, they will be surgical about it.Its share price is back to 1994Core inflation in Canada (excluding energy) continues to tick lower.The main risk is that it’s due to a struggling economy.The percentage of Americans making withdrawals from their pension plans for hardship reasons has tripled.In Financial Ructions:The yield curve continues to increasingly uninvert.It’s a bear steepener which doesn’t usually lead to a recession.Although we had a nasty one in the early 1970s.We look at the supply of base money relative to M2.And why inflation soared in the early 2020s.Judy Shelton makes the case for a shrinking Fed balance sheet and lower interest rates.Book ReviewWe complete the last two chapters of the great book False Dawn by George Selgin.Monetary policy was highly accommodative during World War II.But not after the war ended, despite yield curve control still being in effect.We must learn the lessons of the Great Depression and resist resorting to the New Deal playbook.And a shout out to Hayek.

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A snapshot of what’s going on in the world’s economy.