Paulitical Economy™

Paul Musson
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A snapshot of what’s going on in the world’s economy. 

  1. 1D AGO

    Post 362: High Income Consumers Drive Spending While Consumer Sentiment Hits a Half Century Low

    Sales at Dollar General are slowly accelerating. Even with discretionary items.But sales growth at Dollarama is ticking lower. And we take a look back.Retail sales and the Special K economy. The bottom 70% of income earners reduced their spending.But that was more than offset by increased spending from the top 30%.Luxury furniture retailer RH has had impressive sales growth, albeit slowing. Share price growth? Not so impressive.Consumer sentiment in the US is the lowest on record. What might be causing this?Financial Ructions: Distressed office building sales soared last year in America.Interest rates continue to rise in Japan. As does inflation pressure.Book Review: President Hoover was rightly worried about the RFC (Reconstruction Finance Corporation) becoming a gigantic banking and pawn-broking business.”Keynesian economics was not really attempted by FDR. And he didn’t believe that large government debts led to economic prosperity.

    28 min

  2. APR 6

    Post 361: Corporate Bifurcation With Consumers Buying Less Stuff While Governments Bail Out Governments

    The construction of multifamily properties in the US has soared over the last few years.Resulting in higher vacancy rates and lower rents.European consumer products company Unilever got rid of its ice cream business last year.Now they’re bidding adieu to the rest of their food business.US confectionery company Mondelez has been rapidly increasing its prices to offset higher commodity costs.Volume has been down four quarters in a row.Netflix continues to hit it out of the park in terms of sales growth.In the last six months members watched 96 billion hours of content.Nike returns to negative growth.And its share price continues to plummet.Tesla sales are up a bit from last year but down from two years ago..But the big news is that they will start mass production of their cybercab.Canada’s Federal and Provincial government (taxpayers) bail out Ontario’s municipal governments.This shouldn’t go down well in provinces with low new home development charges.In Financial RuctionsUS jobs were stronger than expected.As was the quality of those jobs.Book Review: False Dawn by George SelginFirst, we see that the NRA (National Recovery Act) served to delay the recovery.PM: Not for the first time, the government would have been better off doing nothing.Second, most of the benefits of well-intended policies to help homeowners instead went to lenders.And that cheap credit is “dangerously habit-forming.”PM: I’ll say.

    35 min

  3. MAR 30

    Post 360: Booze, RVs, and Rising Mortgage Rates

    Hello everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend.  Things are finally starting to warm up here in the Toronto area: it has been a long winter.  And now that we’re near the end of March the birds are making their way back north including the Toronto Blue Jays (as some of you know I’m a birdwatcher and baseball fan). Four more of my podcast interviews are now available for your viewing enjoyment. I was on a live radio show in Singapore called Money and Me with Michelle Martin. The title of the show is Who Really Wins When Money is Printed?  She is an amazing radio host. The Nova Society’s goal is to “inform your world with unbiased commentary…and that the greatest threat to civilization is misinformation (spreading information that one doesn’t know is false and with no intent of causing harm) and disinformation (deliberately misleading people in order to manipulate or cause harm).”  Dr. Mark Bound and I had a great conversation. On Money Ripples, Chris Miles teaches people how to earn passive income and not rely on the stock market.  We had such a great chat that we are going to do a part two in April. And finally, I joined Shawn Murphy on his Above the Bar podcast. He’s a former marine and he talks to people about any subject as long as they have a passion for it.  I was a good fit.  Have a great week. Summary What caused Canada’s housing affordability crisis?Low interest rates or high development fees, or both?Wine exports to China have plummeted.The alcohol industry is still struggling.Diageo sales go deeper into negative territoryPernod Ricard sales do likewiseAnd a look back.Constellation Brands has had three straight quarters of declining sales growth.But its Modelo Especiale is still the number one beer in America.Brown Forman, maker of Jack Daniel’s, continues to experience weak sales.Particularly in Tequila.They are in talks to merge with Pernod Ricard.A look at the booze industry and younger people may be starting to finally drink more.But this is being offset by those cutting back because of the soaring cost of living.RV maker Winnebago continues to grow its sales.And a look back at the company and 2004.Its share price is falling faster than an RV going downhill.Meanwhile, the largest RV maker Thor Industries also continues to grow its sales.We look back at this one and a quick revisit to the land of the conglomerates.In Financial Ructions:Canada’s money supply has been growing much faster than that in other developed economies.Aided and abetted by ridiculously low interest rates for many years.Thus, our record household debt to GDP.Mortgage rates in the US are on their way back up.Book ReviewWe continue our review of False Dawn by George Selgin and we see that:Gold inflows from Europe were the main stimulus to the US economy after 1933.Mandating higher wages led to lower levels of employment.And New Deal policies set out to reduce competition so large companies could increase prices.PM: You can’t make this stuff up.

    45 min

  4. MAR 23

    Post 359: Why Canadians Are Getting Poorer and Less Happy

    Homicides in the US are the lowest in 125 years.Canada’s economic decline has outpaced all other developed nations over the last ten years.And so has our happiness.I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.California has by far the highest gasoline prices in America.And Kansas the lowest.Delta’s passenger revenue miles go negative.And economy class revenue even more so.And a look back.If you’re thinking of buying a new car you might want to hire a professional haggler.The ratio of stock market wealth to housing wealth in Canada is at a 23-year high.And a look at wealth disparity.Darden restaurants continues to grow its top line.Sales at Bloomingdale’s accelerate and stagnate at Macy’s: Special K.General Mills has grown its volume in only one of the past eighteen quarters.Inflation in Canada ticked down last month.But food prices are getting out of control.Amazon is testing 30-minute delivery service.In Financial Ructions:Longer-term interest rates around the world are gapping higher.And so did wholesale inflation in the US.In our Book Review of False DawnWe see that any recovery that did happen in the 1930s was in large part due to Hitler.And that rather than allow food production in the US to fall to a sustainable level, the government introduced the Agricultural Adjustment Administration (AAA) which served to raise food prices.Not helpful when people are starving.

    41 min

  5. MAR 16

    Post 358: The Central Bank Led Housing Affordability Crisis That Has Caused a Decline in Global Fertility

    Carnival Corporation is charging record prices.And a look back.A look at what and who caused Canada’s housing affordability crisis.And how housing affordability crises around the world have contributed to lowering the globe’s fertility rate.Construction of rental properties in Canada is soaring.And rents are falling.But construction of single-family detached homes has slowed.And an increasing number of completed homes are vacant.Because people can’t afford them.Four of the largest economies in the world are states in the USSomething Stupid.Our Canadian government outdoes itself.The bar was already very low.Inflation in America has levelled off but still above the 2% confiscation level.And a look at why the official numbers don’t reflect the true cost of health insurance increases.Job growth in Canada is very weak: household and payroll survey.In Financial Ructions:We look at foreign holders of US Treasuries.And how the basis trade makes the Cayman Islands the largest foreign holder.In Chapter Five of our book review of False Dawn by George Selgin:We look at the Reconstruction Finance Corporation that was established by the Hoover Adminstration.And how it was way ahead of Bernanke in terms of aiding and abetting the proliferation of zombie companies.

    39 min

  6. MAR 9

    Post 357: Why Canada’s Economy is Falling Behind: Vacant Homes, Weak GDP, and Startups Leaving

    An increasing number of homes listed for sale in Canada are vacant.A look at Canada’s poor record on economic growth.And sadly, it’s primarily self-inflicted.In Financial Ructions:More Canadians are starting new companies in the US than they are in Canada.This is a significant change over the last ten years.Book ReviewWe continue our review of George Selgin’s great book False Dawn.One of the big contributors to the banking crisis in the early 1930s was that banks were not allowed to have branches and thus diversify their exposures.Conversely, Canada did have a branch banking system and only one of the 18 banks failed during the Great Depression.The bank holiday plan was drawn up by President Hoover’s team but implemented by FDR.And it was the threat of publishing the names of those unpatriotic citizens who had withdrawn gold from their bank accounts that resulted in gold flooding back into banks.

    21 min

  7. FEB 24

    Post 356: 35 Years of Easy Money and the Generational Wealth Divide

    A Wall Street Journal article looks at how older Americans are significantly wealthier than the next generation.Spoiler alert, it’s a result of bad policy.As cocoa bean prices soared, chocolate consumption fell.Now it’s the bean prices that are falling and government imposed minimum prices are causing an inventory glut.Amazon sales continue to soar.Especially in web services.Inflation in the US continues to fall: Disinflation.But beef prices continue to soar.Core inflation numbers in Canada also fell.But food prices are getting out of control.We take our first look at Dallas-Based Wing Stop.Sales were extremely strong until early last year and now they are falling at an accelerating rate.Meanwhile, McDonald’s has turned things around with its value offerings.After eight quarters of significant sales declines, Deere Corporation has really turned things around with two quarters of accelerating sales growth.And its share price continues to grow much faster than its sales.In Financial Ructions:Financial conditions have been accommodative since 1991.Yes, it’s the Fed.In our Book Review section:We start reviewing a new book.False Dawn by George SelginThe book is about the impact that Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal policies had on economic recovery.In chapter 1 Selgin starts by telling us it was the first major downturn that the government attempted to fix: First Hoover and then Roosevelt.PM: In my opinion, it’s not a coincidence that it ended up being the deepest and longest downturn in American history.In chapter 2 we see that the New Deal was not in FDR’s mind during the election campaign of 1932.And FDR even criticized Hoover for his reckless government spending.

    34 min

  8. FEB 17

    Post 355: Gold, Housing, Jobs & Debt: What the Data Is Really Telling Us And What It Isn’t

    Eddie Bauer: Another retailer is going by the wayside.And a look back.For Canadians who file for insolvency, on average they owe money to over 10 different lenders.The Chart of the Century shows car prices in Canada going down 15% over a nine-year period.When in fact they actually increased 23%US jobs numbers are once again revised downwards.And Canada continues to struggle.Vancouver and Toronto lead the North American housing affordability crisis charts.A look at how high wages have grown much faster than lower wages.This wasn’t always the case.Toys:Mattel sales are still rising but the company is having to discount to move product.Hot Wheels accounted for most of the growth.Hasbro sales are booming in large part because, unlike Mattel, they pivoted to a “digital first” strategy including gaming.Wizards and Digital Gaming was up +86%.Sugar prices are plummeting.But it’s probably not because of weight-loss drugs like Wegovy.At least not yet.In Financial Ructions:He’s back: The Reuters main stream economics journalist.And a few corrections.And what could drive the second phase of the gold bull market.In our book review section, we finish our review of the great book by John B. Taylor.Taylor says that the great economic harm caused by the GFC was a result of “a series of unpredictable government actions and interventions with little or no basis in economic theory.”With the Fed keeping short-term rates at basement levels for so long it started to impact long-term interest rates.An unwillingness to admit what the issues were, and their own role in the debacle, delayed the Fed from doing the right thing.And he finishes off saying that policy should be based on the way things are and not the way we wish them to be.Ah men.

    45 min
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A snapshot of what’s going on in the world’s economy. 

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  • Creator
    Paul Musson
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    44
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Paulitical Economy™
  • Show Website
    Paulitical Economy™