The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day.

Tanmay Kurtkoti
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Every trading day, before 9:15 AM, Tanmay Kurtkoti gives you the one edge most traders miss before market open. The Tanmay Edge is a daily pre-market audio brief covering: Key levels, open interest, and GEX data for Nifty & BankNifty. Options flow and derivatives market structure. What institutional money is signalling overnight — Pro vs FII vs Client positioning decoded. The one setup worth watching at open. Tanmay is the founder of QC Alpha ($75M) and RupeeCase India's systematic quantitative investing terminal. He has 16+ years in derivatives and quantitative trading, including prop desk experience. No fluff. No filler. Just your edge before the chaos begins. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream free on rupeecase.com. Follow on X: @TanmayKurtkoti

  1. 1d ago

    S2Ep108 | The Carpet Got Ripped Up | First Higher Close In 8 Days, 200 Lakh Calls Covered, PCR Crosses 1 | 69 Lakh Puts March On 24200, Max Pain Climbs To 24250 | Pros Flip Long, FII Sells The Rally | Oil 94, Gold Record, Nasdaq -1% | Gap Into 24300

    The first higher close in eight sessions, and it came with a full structure flip. Episode 108 walks the entire board, strike by strike, and then puts a plan on record for a gap-up that lands exactly on resistance. Thursday's tape: Nifty 24,231.85, up 153.55 points (+0.64%), the first higher close after seven straight lower ones, with breadth of 39 advances to 10 declines and 304 of the Nifty 500 green. The Sensex added 628.04 to 77,537.72. India VIX crushed 4.5% to 10.81. Media +2.13%, Realty +1.41%, Capital Markets +1.36%, financials green across the board. The structure flip, from NSE BhavCopy: the 200 lakh call carpet mapped a day earlier got ripped up in one session. 68 lakh calls covered at 24100 alone, 27 lakh at 24200, 23 lakh at 24500. Behind the price, put writers advanced: 69 lakh fresh puts at 24200 (now 133 lakh, the new front-line support), 27 to 29 lakh added each at 23800, 23900 and 24300, and the 24000 support now holds 163.5 lakh puts, the biggest single strike of the cycle. The put call ratio went 0.70 to 1.097, above 1 for the first time this cycle, and max pain climbed from 24200 to 24250, a rising magnet. The one standard deviation map: front-week implied at 7.9%, back at the floor of the whole arc. Daily 1SD about 100 points (24132 to 24332), to Tuesday's expiry about 225 points (24008 to 24456), straddle-implied 23975 to 24490. The math and the board agree: the week's expected battlefield is 24000 to 24450. The participants, from official NSE data: proprietary desks added 81,000 calls, flipped index futures long, and added 70,000 puts as protection, a positioned-long book. Foreign institutions covered 80,000 call shorts (the rally's fuel) and trimmed 93,000 puts, but kept 2.12 lakh futures shorts and sold 583 crore of cash into the rally. Retail dumped 1.62 lakh calls into the first green day while still holding 6.91 lakh uncovered short puts. Domestic institutions bought 3,538 crore, their fourth big cheque, cumulative past 43,000 crore. The model corner: the system flipped to buy at 24,210.95 and projected 24,227.97; the close printed 24,231.85, four points away, the fourth straight projection hit. Expiry pin projection drifts toward 24250 to 24300 by Tuesday if oil behaves. The morning's tug of war: GIFT points to a +90 gap landing exactly on the 24300 resistance, against Nasdaq -1%, Brent near 94 dollars (the third leg: 88, 92, 94), gold at another record 4,543, and the Indian 10 year jumping to 6.87%. The plan on record: BUY ON DIPS. Buy zones toward 24200 and 24150, deep zone 24000 to 24010 where the biggest put base and the 1SD floor stack together. Stop on a close below 24100. Resistance 24300 to 24326, then 24450 to 24500. Riders: oil through 95 and US follow-through selling. Sources: NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL, CDSL disclosures. Educational content, not investment advice. QCAlpha Advisers has applied for SEBI Research Analyst registration. Back tests referenced start January 2021 and do not guarantee future returns. The Tanmay Edge drops every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. Streams first on rupeecase.com. Share it with one trader friend who needs it today

    S2Ep108 | The Carpet Got Ripped Up | First Higher Close In 8 Days, 200 Lakh Calls Covered, PCR Crosses 1 | 69 Lakh Puts March On 24200, Max Pain Climbs To 24250 | Pros Flip Long, FII Sells The Rally | Oil 94, Gold Record, Nasdaq -1% | Gap Into 24300

  2. 2d ago

    S2Ep107 | Round 4, Priced For Boredom | The Auction That Moved 284 Points Costs Less This Week, 24 Lakh Calls Press 77000, And The Crowd Sets A Fifth Record | 20th August Thursday

    Last Thursday the closing auction moved the Sensex 284 points in four minutes after freezing for eleven. Everybody watched it. So here is the remarkable thing about round four, which expires today: the market has priced it CHEAPER. Sensex one day implied volatility sits near 10 percent against 13.5 last week, the straddle costs about 374 rupees, and overnight the call writers pressed 24 lakh fresh contracts onto the 77,000 strike, taking it to 25.4 lakh against 17 lakh puts. Max pain sits at 77,000, ninety points above a spot that just closed below the round number for the first time this slide, with fresh put support at 76,900 and 76,500 and the next resistance at 77,500. The put call ratio reads 0.57. Complacency is where the fireworks live, and the rules stand after three auditions: the indicative is not the close, nothing market on close, flat into the window, and the move lives after 3:26, inside the uncross. Wednesday was the seventh straight lower Nifty close, 24,472 to 24,078.30, minus 394 in seven sessions, but the 24,000 base held with 26 points to spare. The official file keeps writing the same two characters: retail set a FIFTH consecutive record naked put book, 5.74 to 6.08 to 6.61 to 6.97 and now 7.13 lakh contracts, seven red days and five records in. And the proprietary desks bought back their entire 71 thousand call short at the lows, cashing the month's only directional lean after riding it down two days, their book back to long volatility tilted to puts. Foreign institutions crossed two thresholds at once, index futures short above 2 lakh and calls short above 3 lakh for the first time, while still buying 408 crore of cash into the locals' fourth big cheque in eight sessions. The Nifty's weekly board is brutal for bounce hunters: max pain at 24,200 sits 122 points overhead, but call writers carpeted nearly 200 lakh fresh contracts across 24,100, 24,200 and 24,300 in a single session. The entire recovery path is sold. Support is the 24,000 double army of 137 lakh puts, then 23,700. The weekly straddle costs 235 at 9.2 percent implied. And the morning brings whiplash: Korea rebounded six percent after crashing five, GIFT gaps 150 points up, the dollar index broke below 99, gold exploded to a 4,528 record overnight, Brent holds 92 and the rupee printed another record low at 95.76. The gap lands exactly into the fresh call carpet. Episode 106 graded 4 on 5: the bearish tone held for a seventh lower close, the 24,000 base held exactly, and the Sensex straddle sold near 659 printed 374 by morning, roughly 280 points collected with the stop never threatened, the first winning trade after two stop days. The plan for round four: the 76,900 to 77,000 seam decides the Sensex day, selling this week's thinner premium demands the same hard stop, the Nifty gap needs a held 24,300 close to be trusted, and everything goes flat by 3:15, because the last fifteen minutes belong to the machine. Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. The Tanmay Edge streams first on rupeecase.com. Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

    S2Ep107 | Round 4, Priced For Boredom | The Auction That Moved 284 Points Costs Less This Week, 24 Lakh Calls Press 77000, And The Crowd Sets A Fifth Record | 20th August Thursday

  3. 3d ago

    S2Ep106 | The Morning Korea Broke | A Fourth Record Naked Put Book Meets The Pros' First Bearish Lean, Oil Prints 92, And The Battlefield Is 24000 To 24300 | 19th August Wednesday

    This morning, Korea broke. The KOSPI, up twelve percent in a five session melt-up, gave back 5.4 percent in a single morning. The Nikkei fell 2.4 percent, sixteen hundred points off its record. The Nasdaq closed down 1.3 overnight, Brent printed 92 dollars, the rupee closed at its weakest ever 95.68, and the Indian 10 year yield rose to 6.82: the oil tax has reached the bond market. Our own tape walks into this storm already six days down, 24,472 to 24,154.90, after Tuesday's expiry settled at the dead low of the day, printed by the closing session itself, 195 points BELOW max pain. The lesson repeats: a sliding market beats a static magnet, every time. The heart of the episode is a divergence the official file has not shown all month. Retail set its FOURTH consecutive record naked put book: 5.74, 6.08, 6.61 and now 6.97 lakh contracts short, selling 37 thousand more puts while the third record was burning at settlement, and buying 1.66 lakh fresh calls on top. Maximum bullish, both directions, six red days in. No fear. On the other side, the proprietary desks, who traded volatility both ways all cycle, dumped their call leg entirely, from 1.26 lakh long to net short 71 thousand: their first directional lean of the month, and it is down. When the crowd shows no fear and the smartest desk shows its first, listen to the second group. Foreign institutions completed the picture at maximum size: a put book through 6 lakh for the first time, index futures short at a cycle high 1.94 lakh, and yet 1,652 crore of cash BOUGHT. Tuesday's call is graded straight: buy on dips was wrong, a second straight stop day, the credit spread entered at 135 to 140 and stopped at 160 with the loss capped at 20 to 25 points exactly as designed. Two stop days, two defined losses, zero blowups: the exits are the reason we are still standing. The trend-day warning, the crowd-burn call and the 125 straddle all paid. Graded 2.5 on 5. The new board: max pain at 24,300 sits 145 points above spot, the bounce argument, but call writers pressed 102 lakh fresh contracts onto 24,200 and 24,300 in one session, so every bounce meets a wall immediately. Support is one number, the 114 lakh base at 24,000, and below it thin air. The weekly straddle costs 217 to 270 at 9.5 percent implied: cheap, not free. The plan, after two stop days, is humility: smallest size, trust nothing below a 24,300 close, below 24,000 the crowd's fourth record book is the fuel, own movement rather than write it, and keep powder for tomorrow, because Thursday is the Sensex weekly expiry, closing auction round four, with the premium already building at 10.9 implied. Also inside: defence the only green sector with 95 percent advancing, and the AllCap book up 0.79 percent on a minus 0.55 day, 1.74 percent of alpha in the first two days of its fresh cycle. Six red days on the index; the machine is green. Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. The Tanmay Edge streams first on rupeecase.com. Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

    S2Ep106 | The Morning Korea Broke | A Fourth Record Naked Put Book Meets The Pros' First Bearish Lean, Oil Prints 92, And The Battlefield Is 24000 To 24300 | 19th August Wednesday

  4. 4d ago

    S2Ep105 | The Oil Trigger Fired At 91 | A Third Record Naked Put Book Walks Into Expiry, 135 Lakh Puts Defend 24300, And Vol Wakes 25 Percent At The Floor | 18th August Tuesday

    Eight episodes ago this podcast put one sentence on record: if oil crosses 90 dollars, the support under this market starts breaking. Overnight, Brent crossed it, 91.16 at recording time, and it picked expiry morning to do it. The same file shows retail walking into today short 6.61 lakh puts, naked, their THIRD consecutive record after 5.74 and 6.08, having sold 53 thousand more into Monday's fall, one night before the trigger fired. And expiry implied volatility, asleep at 7.8 percent on Friday, woke 25 percent overnight to 9.7. It is expiry day: something resolves at 3:30, by force. Monday itself was the fifth straight lower close, a staircase: 24,472, 24,436, 24,396, 24,366, 24,287.65, roughly 45 points a step, with the seventh sector rotation in seven sessions, IT hammered while realty and metals rose. The war behind it reached maximum size: foreign institutions sold 2,535 crore of cash, their biggest of the month, pushed 8,423 crore through index options in a single day, and hold a fresh cycle high 1.82 lakh index futures short with a put book through 5 lakh contracts for the first time. Domestic funds wrote their second 5,000 crore cheque in three sessions. The proprietary desks doubled their long put leg and hold long volatility on both sides, a book the overnight spike already pays. Nobody informed is short volatility this morning. Only the crowd is, in record size, for the third time. Today's board is a genuine battleground, all from the official file. Max pain sits at 24,350, sixty two points ABOVE spot for once, with the expiry future sixty points over. The put writers mounted the biggest single-strike defense of the cycle right under the market: 135 lakh puts at 24,300, 83 lakh at 24,250 after Monday's biggest single add, 104 lakh at 24,200, a 114 lakh base at 24,000, 108 lakh contracts of defense raised between 24,200 and 24,300 in one session. Above, 71 lakh fresh calls at 24,350 and 105 lakh at 24,400. The straddle costs about 125. The gamma map splits the day: negative below 24,350 where moves amplify, positive above 24,400 where they damp, and the open lands inside the pit. The two arguments, both on the table: the pin, if oil cools, with the magnet overhead and an enormous put army below; or the break, if oil holds above 91 and 24,250 gives way, where the crowd's record naked puts become the fuel toward 24,000. The episode does not pre-choose: the level chooses. The firm calls: do not sell today's volatility, own movement small and defined after a stop day, and be flat of expiry premium by 3:15, because the closing auction owns the last print of every session now. Episode 104 graded 3 on 5, straight: the buy-dips bias was wrong and the stop at 24,300 fired by twelve points, but the do-not-sell-vol rule paid in full overnight. Also inside: the rupee at a new weakest 95.61, US yields at 4.73, Korea's melt-up against a red Asia, and the AllCap's fresh rebalance cycle opening with 0.40 percent of alpha on day one. Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. The Tanmay Edge streams first on rupeecase.com. Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

    S2Ep105 | The Oil Trigger Fired At 91 | A Third Record Naked Put Book Walks Into Expiry, 135 Lakh Puts Defend 24300, And Vol Wakes 25 Percent At The Floor | 18th August Tuesday

  5. 5d ago

    S2Ep104 | The Crowd Rebuilt The Record | 6.08 Lakh Naked Puts At The Cheapest Vol Of The Month, Max Pain Holds 24400 A Fourth Day, The Machine Rotates Fresh | 17th August Monday

    Five days ago the crowd's record short put book burned in a two hundred point flush at 24,266. On Friday they rebuilt it, bigger: retail is now short 6.08 lakh puts, naked, a new record for this cycle, sold at the cheapest premium of the month, one trading day before Tuesday's expiry. On the other side, the proprietary desks bought their volatility book back on BOTH legs, 1.37 lakh calls and 0.60 lakh puts, at 7.8 percent front week implied, the floor of the entire three week arc: ten, twelve point two, nine nine five, nine four four, eight five three, and now seven eight. Every floor in that sequence preceded a violent week. The one day straddle for Tuesday costs about 168 rupees, the cheapest movement has been priced this cycle. The foreign institutions run maximum insurance while still buying: put book at a fresh high of 4.97 lakh, index futures short at a cycle high 1.77 lakh, short 2.77 lakh calls, and yet 508 crore of cash BOUGHT on Friday, their second purchase in three days, with 5,589 crore pushed into index options in one session. Buying the stock, buying the protection, selling the futures: the same hedged accumulation fingerprint, four weeks running, bigger each week. The board is building a textbook pin. Max pain holds at 24,400 for a fourth straight session, and last week taught the lesson: a sliding magnet chases price, a stable magnet holds it. Friday's flows pulled everything inward: 24 lakh fresh puts at 24,300, 18 lakh more at the 24,000 base now 114 lakh strong and the heaviest support on the board, 11 lakh calls added right at the money, and 15 lakh far calls covered at 25,000. Resistance sits at 24,400 then 24,500 with 113 lakh calls. Also today: rebalance day. The AllCap rotated its book this morning after a cycle in which the alpha widened five days in a row, 0.59 to 1.26 percent, while the benchmark fell one and a half percent through six sector leaderships in six sessions. The fresh scorecard: net 607.66 percent since inception against 49.02 for the benchmark, alpha of 558 points, CAGR 47.88, fifty fresh names at two percent each. Churn is the enemy of conviction and the food of systems. The plan, and the bias has not changed all month: buy on dips. Dips toward 24,300 are for buying, with a close below 24,300 as the stop, because under that level the crowd's record naked puts become the fuel toward 24,000. Reclaim 24,400 on a close and the 24,500 fight opens. And rule one, for the third Monday running: do not sell volatility at 7.8 percent into an expiry the crowd has already sold in record size. Own a little movement, keep it small, and be flat of expiry premium by 3:15 tomorrow, because the closing auction now writes the last print of every single day, not just expiries. Episode 103 graded 4.5 on 5: the pin-drift around the stable magnet printed exactly as mapped. Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. The Tanmay Edge streams first on rupeecase.com. Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

    S2Ep104 | The Crowd Rebuilt The Record | 6.08 Lakh Naked Puts At The Cheapest Vol Of The Month, Max Pain Holds 24400 A Fourth Day, The Machine Rotates Fresh | 17th August Monday

  6. Aug 14

    S2Ep103 | The Fireworks Came One Minute Too Late | A Frozen Auction Moves 284 Points In The Uncross, Both Indices Pin On Max Pain, And Vol Hits The Cycle Floor | 14th Aug Friday

    Between 3:15 and 3:26 on Thursday the Sensex did absolutely nothing. The equilibrium price sat frozen near 77,890 and the expiry straddle, 425 rupees at the open, melted to about 80. Then, in the final four minutes, the closing auction moved almost three hundred points: the indicative price went from 77,859 at 3:22 to 78,143 at 3:26, and the settlement printed at 78,079.96, up 113 on the day and 80 points over the 78,000 battleground. Round three of the closing auction answered episode 102's question with cruel precision: the pre-paid fireworks came, one minute too late for anyone still holding premium. Even a 78,000 straddle bought for 80 in the window settled worth about 80, breakeven on a 284 point swing. The new rule that completes the auction playbook: the move now lives after 3:26, inside the uncross itself, where nobody trades. A frozen equilibrium and a melting straddle are not safety, and you cannot buy the auction move with listed premium. The old rules stand taller than ever: never trade the indicative print, and be flat into the window. The quieter headline: for the first time in two weeks, BOTH magnets worked. The Sensex settled 80 over its max pain and the Nifty closed at 24,395.85, four points from its 24,400 max pain, after dipping to 24,311 and being pulled back by its own closing session. The lesson: max pain works when it stops moving. The Nifty's magnet slid 24,600 to 24,500 to 24,400 all week and price fell with it; the moment it stabilised, it pinned. Positioning turned heavy-handed. The proprietary desks sold 63 thousand puts, flipping their put book short: selling floor insurance at 8.5 percent implied, the cheapest volatility of the entire two week arc (10, 12.2, 9.95, 9.44, 8.53). The crowd covered 89 thousand of its record naked put book, down to 4.86 lakh, and bought calls. The foreign institutions built their heaviest book of the cycle: short 2.89 lakh calls and 1.69 lakh index futures, both cycle highs, long 4.74 lakh puts, with 13,538 crore pushed through index options in one day, while selling 511 crore of cash into domestic funds' 4,353 crore absorb, the second big local cheque in three days. The new week's board is a ladder: resistance every hundred points from 24,500 (105 lakh calls) to a monster 24,800 (108 lakh after the day's biggest add) and 25,000 (131 lakh); support every hundred from 24,300 (78 lakh puts) to the 24,000 base (96 lakh). The weekly straddle costs about 205 at the cycle's cheapest volatility. Also inside: the fifth sector rotation in five sessions with defensives leading, Korea's four day melt-up, US yields breaking lower, oil deflating from the 90 trigger, the rupee at its weakest close, and the RupeeCase AllCap book whose alpha has widened five straight days to 1.26 percent, with the rebalance due Monday. Episode 102 graded 4.5 on 5: the pin came, the straddle sellers ate, and 77,500 held with 166 points to spare. Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. The Tanmay Edge streams first on rupeecase.com. Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

    S2Ep103 | The Fireworks Came One Minute Too Late | A Frozen Auction Moves 284 Points In The Uncross, Both Indices Pin On Max Pain, And Vol Hits The Cycle Floor | 14th Aug Friday

  7. Aug 13

    S2Ep102 | Max Pain Slides Three Days To 24400, The Crowd Hits A Record Naked Put Short, And The Auction Premium Is Finally Priced | 13th August Thursday

    At noon on Wednesday the Nifty sat at 24,266, down two hundred points, deep in the exact air pocket episode 101 mapped. Then somebody wrote a 5,842 crore cheque at the bottom. Domestic funds made their biggest single day purchase of the month, straight into a falling knife, on the same day foreign institutions sold 1,002 crore of cash and added to index futures shorts now at 1.65 lakh contracts. The V that followed recovered 170 points into a 24,435 close, down just 36. The open at 24,472 was the high of the day, the third straight session where the best print came in the first minutes. The options board delivered three lessons. One, max pain has slid three days in a row, 24,600 to 24,500 to 24,400: a falling max pain is a trend follower, not a floor, the magnet chases price rather than pulling it. Two, call writers are chasing too, 42 lakh fresh calls sold at the money at 24,400 and the 24,500 lid now at 89 lakh contracts, while 24,500 put writers covered 12 lakh and left. Three, the proprietary desks that dumped their entire long volatility book into Tuesday's expiry at 12 percent implied bought it back on Wednesday at 9.4. One day later. Buy volatility when it is boring, sell it when it is terrifying, and repeat: that loop has now run twice in seven sessions and is the best tell on the board. And the crowd re-sold the insurance one day after it burned: another 51 thousand naked puts into the V, taking the short put book to 5.74 lakh contracts, a new record above last week's peak, plus 1.48 lakh long calls on top. Foreign institutions lifted their put book to 5 lakh, also a fresh high, against 6.24 lakh long stock futures. Today's main event: the Sensex weekly expiry, round three of the new closing auction. Round one misfired with phantom prints. Round two settled clean while the indicative price went wild inside the window. Both times the market walked in unprepared. Not today: Sensex one day implied volatility sits at 13.5 percent, up 19 percent, against 9.4 on the Nifty, four full vol points of auction premium, finally priced. Round three asks the opposite question: when everyone has paid for the fireworks, do they come? The board: 78,000 the battleground with 16 lakh calls against 11 lakh puts and max pain there, the floor at 77,500, the straddle near 425. The rules stand: the indicative print is not the close, nothing market on close, and theta collects all day before the window pays. Also inside: the fourth sector rotation in four days with PSU banks up 2 percent while TCS fell 3.7, Korea's two day 7 percent melt-up, gold living at a record 4,424 dollars, Brent stalled at 88.8 with the 90 dollar trigger still loaded, and the RupeeCase AllCap book green on a red day with alpha of 0.99 percent since rebalance. Episode 101 graded 4 on 5: the fail branch ran from the opening bell. The map: Nifty boxed between the 24,400 magnet and the 24,500 lid, 24,600 above on a reclaim, and below 24,300 the crowd's record naked puts are the fuel toward the 24,000 base. Keep risk defined and small, and give the auction its respect. Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. The Tanmay Edge streams first on rupeecase.com. Educational content, not investment advice.

    S2Ep102 | Max Pain Slides Three Days To 24400, The Crowd Hits A Record Naked Put Short, And The Auction Premium Is Finally Priced | 13th August Thursday

  8. Aug 12

    S2Ep 101 | Expiry Settles 128 Below Max Pain, The Pros Complete A 3 Day Vol Masterclass, 24500 Is The New Battleground | 12th August Wednesday

    The 100th episode's exam had a trick question in it. We mapped a 24,500 to 24,600 box and the market tore the floor off it in the first thirty minutes: the open at 24,575 was the high of the day, 24,500 broke by 9:45, and the Nifty fell into the air pocket to 24,429 before closing at 24,471, down 112 points. The Sensex lost 388 at 78,154. And the weekly expiry settled 128 points BELOW max pain. Today's first lesson: max pain is a tendency, not a law, the second failure in three expiries. The grade, given straight: the buy on dips bias was wrong, a stop loss day. What survived was the process. The 1 by 2 call spread lost only its 34 point ticket, about 2,200 rupees a set, exactly as designed. The oil conditional said word for word that oil rallying toward 90 dollars could break 24,500, and Brent went from 87.90 to nearly 89 as the floor gave way. And scenario three, break below 24,500, naked puts burn, air to 24,400, described the day to the point, low 24,429. Three on five. When you are wrong, the exit is the trade. Then the beautiful part: a complete volatility cycle in three sessions. Friday, front week implied under 10 percent, and this podcast said do not sell it. Monday, IV exploded 22 percent to 12.2 and the curve inverted. Tuesday, crushed back to 9.95, VIX down to 11.8. And the proprietary desks, from the official participant file, dumped their ENTIRE long volatility book into the expiry, 2.14 lakh calls and 0.72 lakh puts on Monday reduced to nearly zero by Tuesday close. Buy vol when it is boring, sell it when it is terrifying, executed in plain sight. Who bought what they sold? The crowd. On the breakdown day retail bought 2.09 lakh calls, going net long 1.89 lakh calls while still short 5.2 lakh puts: positioned maximum bullish in both directions at the lows. The foreigners went the other way again, put book at a fresh high of 4.85 lakh contracts, four to one hedged long via 6.17 lakh stock futures. The new board for the 18 August week: max pain has moved down one floor to 24,500, and both armies rebuilt it in a day, 40 lakh fresh calls and 24 lakh fresh puts on that one strike. The deep put base sits at 24,000. The weekly straddle costs about 281 at a 9.95 implied, cheap again, Friday's setup one hundred points lower. Sectors went defensive: India Internet up 1.9 percent, pharma up 1 percent and IT green on a red day while cement and FMCG sold. The Wednesday map: the whole day is 24,500. GIFT Nifty at 24,556 points to an open above it, so the reclaim test comes at the bell. Hold above on a close and the pin engine restarts toward 24,600. Fail, and rallies are for selling, 24,400 first, air to 24,200 below, with the crowd's short puts as fuel. Two riders: Brent at 89.38 is sixty cents from the 90 trigger, and tomorrow is the Sensex weekly expiry, the third run of the closing auction. Keep the risk defined. Tuesday showed why. Plus the RupeeCase AllCap book: alpha of 1.01 percent since rebalance, widened every day of a falling week. Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. The Tanmay Edge streams first on rupeecase.com. Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.

    S2Ep 101 | Expiry Settles 128 Below Max Pain, The Pros Complete A 3 Day Vol Masterclass, 24500 Is The New Battleground | 12th August Wednesday
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About

Every trading day, before 9:15 AM, Tanmay Kurtkoti gives you the one edge most traders miss before market open. The Tanmay Edge is a daily pre-market audio brief covering: Key levels, open interest, and GEX data for Nifty & BankNifty. Options flow and derivatives market structure. What institutional money is signalling overnight — Pro vs FII vs Client positioning decoded. The one setup worth watching at open. Tanmay is the founder of QC Alpha ($75M) and RupeeCase India's systematic quantitative investing terminal. He has 16+ years in derivatives and quantitative trading, including prop desk experience. No fluff. No filler. Just your edge before the chaos begins. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream free on rupeecase.com. Follow on X: @TanmayKurtkoti

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