The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast

Joe Burnett
  • 4.3 (6)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Joe Burnett is Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST) following the Strive + Semler Scientific transaction. He previously served as Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific, helping build a treasury of over 5,000 BTC, and as Director of Market Research at Unchained, which secures more than 100,000 BTC. Joe hosts The Mustard Seed podcast and previously worked at Blockware Solutions and Ernst & Young. He holds degrees in Information Systems, Computer Science, and Business Analytics from the University of Georgia.

  1. Sep 16

    Bitcoin Could Reach $840,000 Within Five Years | Sam Baker

    Sam Baker, research analyst at River, joins me to explain why Bitcoin could reach $840,000 within the next three to five years. We discuss the institutional adoption and capital inflows behind River’s model, the case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation, why each dollar invested can add several dollars to Bitcoin’s market cap, custody considerations, the CLARITY Act, AI’s role in accelerating macro trends, and why businesses are currently driving Bitcoin demand. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:41 The case for $840,000 Bitcoin 06:55 Which investors are adopting Bitcoin? 09:22 Why $1 of buying can add more than $1 to market cap 14:00 The case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation 20:43 What is Bitcoin? 23:04 How much Bitcoin is too much? 25:25 What new Bitcoin investors should know 26:28 Exchange custody vs. self-custody 29:02 What would confirm the $840,000 thesis? 30:42 The CLARITY Act 32:09 Would $840,000 Bitcoin still be early? 36:05 How AI could accelerate Bitcoin adoption 38:27 Businesses are driving Bitcoin demand 41:09 Closing thoughts

  2. Sep 9

    Is the Bitcoin Bottom In? The Data Says Yes | Matt Crosby

    Matt Crosby joins me to break down what the data is saying about Bitcoin today and whether the bear-market bottom is already behind us. We discuss Bitcoin’s price and time capitulation, MVRV and on-chain valuation, long-term versus short-term holders, diminishing volatility, global M2 and DXY, the four-year cycle, and the signals Matt believes point toward a new phase of the Bitcoin market. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:38 Matt Crosby’s background and Look Into Bitcoin 02:30 How predictive is on-chain data? 08:28 Why Matt uses percentile-based Bitcoin valuation 14:24 Is the Bitcoin bottom in? 19:16 Why Bitcoin bear markets happen 24:25 Price capitulation vs. time capitulation 31:39 Bitcoin’s upside as volatility declines 36:20 Rethinking long-term vs. short-term holders 43:00 Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle real? 49:00 Presidential cycles, seasonality and market myths 52:00 Long-term holder conviction and the next bull market 55:08 Where to follow Matt

  3. Sep 3

    The Case for $20 Million Bitcoin | Luke Broyles

    Luke Broyles joins me to explain why he believes Bitcoin could eventually reach $20 million per coin. We discuss the accelerating pace of technology, the growth of U.S. debt, AI, monetary debasement, and why Luke thinks Bitcoin sits at the intersection of these long-term trends. We also explore why calling Bitcoin "digital gold" may dramatically undersell its potential and why most Bitcoin price targets could be far too low. This is a long-term conversation about where Bitcoin, technology, and the global financial system may be heading. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:03 Luke Broyles' Bitcoin thesis 5:49 Why the future will change faster than the past 10:21 The three pillars of Luke's worldview 11:40 AI, Starship, robotics and accelerating technology 19:09 Why technological progress keeps accelerating 22:14 Is the global debt market a Ponzi scheme? 25:24 Where U.S. government debt is headed 27:34 What the debt actually means for taxpayers 31:09 Treasury buybacks and Bitcoin 34:12 Could the average house eventually cost $40 million? 37:03 The collision between technology and debt 39:37 Why technology demonetizes everything 41:08 Bitcoin and the significance of 21 million 42:20 How technological deflation worsens the debt problem 43:21 Why the AI bull case could hurt AI stocks 47:06 Why Bitcoin could reach $20 million 49:54 Bitcoin versus gold 53:18 $5M, $10M and $100M Bitcoin 55:18 Why "digital gold" undersells Bitcoin 56:32 Will AI take everyone's jobs? 58:34 Why Bitcoin could be far bigger than gold 1:01:27 Bitcoin's next 50 years 1:02:46 Mining the final Bitcoin 1:04:32 Could Bitcoin still fail? 1:06:55 Is Bitcoin actually the lower-risk asset? 1:08:39 Why everyone should get off zero 1:10:34 Closing thoughts

  4. Aug 19

    Bitcoin’s Power Law Has Held for 10 Years. What Comes Next? | Sminston With

    Sminston With joins me to explain why Bitcoin’s power law has remained remarkably consistent and how PMI, liquidity, and AI may help explain Bitcoin’s current cycle. We also discuss what could invalidate the power law, the possibility of a $200K-$300K Bitcoin supercycle, and why accumulating 1 BTC is becoming increasingly difficult. Timestamps: 0:00 Sminston’s background and journey to Bitcoin 5:30 Why power laws matter for Bitcoin 12:01 Why the power law may be more robust than stock-to-flow 16:14 Why Bitcoin follows a power law 19:45 PMI, business cycles, and Bitcoin volatility 24:19 Why Bitcoin and PMI are diverging 28:01 The PMI level that could ignite Bitcoin 32:33 Liquidity, AI, and the muted bull market 36:57 Could Bitcoin enter a supercycle? 40:13 What would break the Bitcoin power law? 44:06 How much Bitcoin do you need to retire? 51:02 Sminston’s new Bitcoin data platform

  5. Aug 12

    Why Bitcoin Could Still 20x | Vijay Boyapati

    Vijay Boyapati, author of *The Bullish Case for Bitcoin*, joins me to discuss why Bitcoin may be in the “boring low” of its cycle, why he still sees a path to gold parity and ~20x upside, and what could drive the next bull market. We also discuss AI and Bitcoin security, self-custody, Bitcoin price models, ETFs, treasury companies, and what a future Bitcoin standard could look like. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:19 What Vijay Got Right About Bitcoin 06:03 Is Vijay More Bullish Today? 08:07 How Vijay Values Bitcoin 10:36 What Stands Between Bitcoin and Gold Parity? 11:31 Understanding the Current Bitcoin Cycle 16:48 Is AI Sucking Capital Away From Bitcoin? 20:49 AI, Coldcard and Bitcoin Security 27:14 Will AI Make Bitcoin Software Stronger? 28:04 Stock-to-Flow, Power Law and Bitcoin Price Models 31:49 What Could Trigger the Next Bitcoin Bull Market? 34:13 Where Will the Next Wave of Capital Come From? 37:22 What Would a Bitcoin Standard Look Like? 39:55 Why Bear Markets Create Opportunity 41:39 Where to Follow Vijay

  6. Aug 5

    Is the Bitcoin Bottom Already In? Coldcard, BIP-110 & the 4-Year Cycle

    The Rational Root joins me to break down the Coldcard vulnerability, BIP-110, and the potential Bitcoin chain split. We also analyze on-chain momentum, Digital Credit, institutional demand, and whether Bitcoin’s 2026 bear-market bottom may already be in. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 0:24 Coldcard vulnerability overview 4:46 Coin Days Destroyed and the Coldcard incident 8:41 Coldcard’s development failures 11:50 How AI could strengthen Bitcoin security 13:52 Why Coldcard barely moved Bitcoin’s price 17:16 The safest approach to self-custody 20:15 The risks of single-signature hardware wallets 23:12 BIP-110 and the potential Bitcoin chain split 23:33 Transaction fees after the Coldcard incident 25:08 Bitcoin Core, Knots, and OP_RETURN 28:41 The three ways data enters Bitcoin 33:00 Could BIP-110 make the UTXO problem worse? 35:29 Why Bitcoin’s spam problem may be overstated 37:21 Where Bitcoin is in the four-year cycle 38:35 Short-term holder momentum and capitulation 41:44 How short-term holder momentum works 43:06 Is the Bitcoin bottom already in? 45:45 Could Bitcoin fall to realized price? 47:44 Digital Credit and institutional demand 50:28 Strategy’s cash reserve and preferred stocks 51:09 Why this bear market may be less severe 54:20 Bitcoin’s disconnect from stocks 56:00 AI, macro, and the business cycle 59:15 The final day of the bear market 1:01:16 Bitcoin’s antifragility 1:01:56 Where to follow The Rational Root

  7. Jun 3

    After the AI Buildout, the AI Economy Will Run on Bitcoin Collateral | Eric Jackson

    Eric Jackson joins Joe Burnett to explain why he believes bitcoin could reach $50 million as AI agents transform global commerce and demand pristine digital collateral. They also discuss bitcoin’s recent underperformance, AI-powered market models, compounding through volatility, and why the next five years may be the most uncertain investing environment of our lifetimes. Timestamps: 0:00 - Eric Jackson’s background in markets 2:14 - Finding Carvana before the comeback 3:01 - The OpenDoor trade and retail investor momentum 3:40 - How Eric got interested in bitcoin and crypto 6:26 - Building AI models before ChatGPT 9:23 - Volatility, conviction, and long-term investing 12:16 - Why Eric thinks bitcoin could reach $50 million 17:01 - Bitcoin as the “other coin” of the AI trade 17:28 - Why bitcoin has underperformed gold and AI stocks 20:16 - Is the AI boom propping up the market? 22:03 - What the world could look like in 2041 25:55 - AI, uncertainty, and the next five years 28:47 - Kevin Warsh, interest rates, and bitcoin 31:37 - Eric’s bitcoin stress indicator 40:27 - Compounding through bitcoin volatility 43:35 - Can markets be predicted with enough data? 48:20 - How AI changed market analysis 50:44 - Event Horizon IQ and AI-powered predictions 54:15 - Final thoughts and where to follow Eric

  8. May 27

    The Fed’s Impossible Choice Could Send Bitcoin Higher

    Joe Consorti joins The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast to break down the Fed’s impossible choice between fighting inflation, protecting the economy, and keeping asset prices alive. We discuss why bitcoin may be the only asset accurately pricing today’s uncertainty, how AI is disrupting software but strengthening bitcoin’s long-term case, and why the dollar crash playbook may already be underway. Timestamps: 0:00 - Joe Consorti returns 0:43 - Kevin Warsh’s impossible Fed dilemma 4:49 - Why the Fed may cut rates despite inflation 9:35 - Consumer sentiment hits 74-year lows 11:00 - The K-shaped economy: asset owners vs. everyone else 14:00 - Why they will crash the dollar before markets 17:43 - Why bitcoin is underperforming 21:08 - Is AI stealing capital from bitcoin? 25:10 - Why AI can disrupt software, but cannot disrupt bitcoin 31:02 - ISM PMI, the business cycle, and bitcoin’s bottom 34:37 - Why bitcoin broke from global M2 36:26 - What happens if oil, war, and inflation cool down? 37:17 - Why the S&P 500 could hit 10,000 40:43 - How AI expands the divide between asset owners and labor 45:31 - What bitcoiners may be wrong about 48:22 - “I missed bitcoin” and the unit bias trap 50:18 - Where to follow Joe Consorti

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4.3
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About

Joe Burnett is Vice President of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive (Nasdaq: ASST) following the Strive + Semler Scientific transaction. He previously served as Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific, helping build a treasury of over 5,000 BTC, and as Director of Market Research at Unchained, which secures more than 100,000 BTC. Joe hosts The Mustard Seed podcast and previously worked at Blockware Solutions and Ernst & Young. He holds degrees in Information Systems, Computer Science, and Business Analytics from the University of Georgia.

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