WITA's Friday Trade Exchange

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Former Trade Negotiators Discuss This Week’s Tariff and Trade Developments

  1. 6d ago

    Ep 66: Shifting Trade Tectonics: EU on the Defensive; Russia Tariff and Sanctions Waivers; and Tariffs on Trial

    This week, our trade insiders begin with the EU facing up to the scope of its China challenges: Germany’s flip from doves to hawks as the EU bears the brunt of the Chinese manufacturing trade surplus; a Council call to urgently look at new instruments to address the leaky tupperware problem; European skepticism about working with the United States, and what the 301 on excess capacity might signal. They then turn to proposed U.S. rules on outbound investment in biotech; the executive order waiving the tariffs and sanctions mandated in the Lindsey Graham sanctioning Russia law with the U.S. midterms less than two weeks away. They close with the first court challenge to the Section 338 duties on Canada, the 301 forced labor cases at the U.S. Court of International Trade, and whether Congress should (or could) close the Section 338 “loophole.” Featured Speakers: Peter Harrell, Visiting Scholar, Georgetown Institute for International Economic Law; former Senior Director, International Economics, at the White House under President Biden, whose LinkedIn post are much reads for trade nerds. Daniel Mullaney, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East Neena Shenai, Partner, International Trade Investment and Market Access, WilmerHale; former Trade Counsel, House Committee on Ways and Means Dawn Shackleford, President at Looking Glass Trade, LLC; former Executive Director for Trade Agreements Policy & Negotiations, Department of Commerce; former Assistant USTR for WTO & Multilateral Affairs

  2. Oct 16

    Ep 65: End of the Beginning with China? Excess Capacity, Updating the Arsenal, and USMCA Parallaxes

    In this week’s episode, our trade insiders start with the EU’s import quotas on automobiles from China and a “non-paper” by France and Germany that would expand the EU’s ability to take trade actions. The panel weighs whether Europe is acting in its own interest rather than as a concession to the United States, and whether this is the end of the road for China or, as Churchill once put it, “the end of the beginning.” A spirited debate follows over the long-awaited excess capacity reports and whether 301 tariffs on the other 15 economies could create cover for partners or drive Asian countries back toward China. The insiders then turn to updating the U.S. trade arsenal through a bipartisan commission by Congress and whether the EU’s anti-coercion instrument will ever be operationalized. Finally,we discuss reports that Secretary Lutnick is complicating negotiations with Mexico over Section 232 tariffs on steel and autos, after the U.S. opened that door in the discussions with Canada that ultimately broke down; and what part does the Senate race in Ohio and the political ambitions of the Vice President come into play when talking steel and auto tariffs? Featured Speakers: Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director, McLarty Associates; former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for International Trade, National Economic Council, in the first Trump Administration Stephen Vaughn, Partner, International Trade, King & Spalding LLP; former General Counsel, Office of the United States Trade Representative under first Trump Administration Moderator: Joe Damond, Non-resident Senior Associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in their Southeast Asia program; former Deputy Assistant USTR for Asia

  3. Oct 9

    Ep 64: Wielding a Hammer: EU Kill Switch, Mexico and Canada Talks, Russia Sanction & Tariff Deadline

    In this week’s episode of WITA’s Trade Exchange, our insiders examine EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic’s visit to Beijing and the Franco-German “non-paper,” weighing whether a kill switch can deliver a second strike capability amid China’s leverage in critical minerals, rare earths, and intermediate goods. The panel considers whether the push is more substantive or theatrical ahead of next week’s European Council meeting, and whether momentum from the G20 and the Milwaukee framework can produce collective action while everyone waits on the Section 301 report. The conversation then turns to the USMCA, where Mexico hopes to land an interim agreement on Section 232 tariffs, Canada remains in a holding pattern, and USTR has already posted its public comment request for a 2027 USMCA review. The panelists also weigh how voters are associating tariffs with price increases ahead of the midterm elections. They close on India’s stuck negotiations, now muddied by the Russian sanctions bill and its October 18th deadline, and on whether a potential President Bolsonaro in Brazil would bring more affinity on trade or a complicated dance given Brazil’s own China exposure. Featured Speakers: Dawn Shackleford, President at Looking Glass Trade, LLC; former Executive Director for Trade Agreements Policy & Negotiations, Department of Commerce; former Assistant USTR for WTO & Multilateral Affairs Kelly Ann Shaw, Partner, Akin; former Deputy Assistant to the President for International Economic Affairs & Deputy Director, National Economic Council in the first Trump Administration Mike Smart, Managing Director, Rock Creek Global Advisors; former Director for International Trade and Investment, National Security Council, The White House; former Trade Counsel, Democratic Staff, U.S. Senate Committee on Finance Discussion leader today, Kellie Meiman Hock, Senior Counselor, McLarty Associates; Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University; Board Member, Inter-American Dialogue; former Director of Brazil and the Southern Cone, Office of the United States Trade Representative

  4. Oct 1

    Ep. 63: A Nothing Burger: Trump-Xi Summit, Steel Excess Capacity, and the Forced Labor 301s in Court

    Our trade insiders weigh the fallout from the summit between President Trump and President Xi, where the good news was no real news: a truce extended through January 10, a Board of Trade announcement on $60 billion of non-sensitive goods for reduced tariffs, and new purchasing commitments on coal. The panel considers how Europe views the US-China outcomes as Turnberry implementation talks begin; Sefcovic heads to Beijing; and ministers weigh a quicker type of trade enforcement instrument. Our podcasters then examine the plurilateral steel framework from the G20 Trade Minister meeting, with a focus on excess capacity and transshipment, and ask whether it is compatible with the loudly ticking Russia sanctions clock and the China truce. The panelists then turn to skeptical questions from the Court of International Trade on the forced labor 301, the delayed excess capacity 301s as APEC and the midterms approach, and the cutoff of iced wine, three-wheeled vehicles, whey and dairy derivatives from Canada. They close on whether Congress can reassert control over tariffs after the midterms, and whether working with allies and stability with China can coexist before the two tracks cross. Featured Speakers: Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Blake Harden, Managing Director, Washington Council Ernst & Young; previously served as Trade Counsel on the House Ways & Means Committee; and in the office of the Chief Counsel at U.S. Customs and Border Protection Daniel Mullaney, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East Moderator: Ed Gresser, Vice President & Director for Trade & Global Markets, Progressive Policy Institute; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics - author of the Trade Fact of the Week

  5. Sep 25

    Ep 62: Long on Pomp, Short on Substance: The Xi Visit, Chinese Chokeholds, 301s, and the Trade Truce

    Our trade insiders unpack President Xi's visit, a victory for constructive strategic stability in that very little happened, with an extension of the trade truce, reportedly to January 10th, as its strongest deliverable. The panel weighs a summit long on pomp and short on substance, with no delegation of Chinese CEOs, and asks whether the administration is simply ragging the puck to buy time while China's domestic economy struggles. The conversation turns to diversifying away from Chinese inputs, from critical minerals to Chinese monopolies in intermediate goods far beyond rare earths, and whether the Hill will have to pay to address these choke points. The panelists then debate whether the Structural Excess Capacity 301 risks losing the plot by lashing out at countries other than China, and why USTR's legal position on the Forced Labor 301 may be quite strong ahead of next week's CIT hearing. They close with possible diesel export controls in advance of the U.S. elections. Featured Speakers: Peter Harrell, Visiting Scholar, Georgetown Institute for International Economic Law; former Senior Director, International Economics, at the White House under President Biden. Chris Padilla, Senior Advisor, Brunswick Group; former Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade whose Substack and LinkedIn posts, along with Peter’s, are much reads for trade nerds. Stephen Vaughn, Partner, International Trade, King & Spalding LLP; former General Counsel, Office of the United States Trade Representative in first Trump Administration; and newly named nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. Moderator: Kellie Meiman Hock, Senior Counselor, McLarty Associates; Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University; Board Member, Inter-American Dialogue; former Director of Brazil and the Southern Cone, Office of the United States Trade Representative.

  6. Sep 17

    Ep 61: A Truck-Sized Loophole: Russia Tariff Bill; China; Excess Capacity 301s; Carney's EU Pivot

    This week's episode leads with the Russia sanctions bill, which grants new tariff authority to the President. Then our panelists turn to the delayed structural excess capacity Section 301s and President Xi's planned visit to Washington next week. Our trade insiders also weigh whether artificial intelligence could become a genuine topic between the United States and China at the summit. The panel closes on Prime Minister Carney's visit to the EU; the UN General Assembly; and Brazil's upcoming election. Featured Speakers: Ed Gresser, Vice President & Director for Trade & Global Markets, Progressive Policy Institute; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics - author of the Trade Fact of the Week Arun Venkataraman, Partner, Covington & Burling; former Assistant Secretary of Commerce & Director General of the US & Foreign Commercial Service; and former Director for India and associate general council at USTR Michael Smart, Managing Director, Rock Creek Global Advisors; former Director for International Trade and Investment, National Security Council, The White House; former Trade Counsel, Democratic Staff, U.S. Senate Committee on Finance Moderator: Kellie Meiman Hock, Senior Counselor, McLarty Associates; Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University; Board Member, Inter-American Dialogue; former Director of Brazil and the Southern Cone, Office of the United States Trade Representative

  7. Sep 11

    Ep 60: Pushing Our Partners Closer — Canada’s Retaliation and the World Trading On

    Marking the one year anniversary of The Friday Exchange, our trade insiders open up with personal reflections on the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and the extraordinary international solidarity they witnessed while serving in and around USTR.They then turn to another turbulent week in trade, as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect, prompting a United States response with another round of counter-retaliation. They touch on the proposed use of Section 338, the escalating U.S.-Canada dispute, Prime Minister Carney’s upcoming visit to Europe, and what it could all mean for upcoming U.S.-Mexico talks.Looking ahead, the group previews the September 24 U.S.-China summit, weighs expectations for possible deliverables, and considers how the pending Section 301 excess capacity actions could affect the EU, India, and other trading partners. They close with the BRICS summit in Delhi, India’s growing focus on bilateral market access, including with China, and the continued momentum behind CPTPP as countries look to deepen trade ties beyond the United States. Featured Speakers: Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Mark Linscott, former Assistant USTR for South and Central Asia and before that WTO and Multilateral Affairs and currently a Senior Advisor at the Asia Group and the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum Daniel Mullaney, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East Moderator: Joe Damond, Non-resident Senior Associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in their Southeast Asia program; former Deputy Assistant USTR for Asia

  8. Sep 4

    Ep 59: A Little Less Conversation, a Little More Action Please: Canada, China, and Tariff Politics

    Featured Speakers: Dawn Shackleford, President at Looking Glass Trade, LLC; former Executive Director for Trade Agreements Policy & Negotiations, Department of Commerce; former Assistant USTR for WTO & Multilateral Affairs Ed Gresser, Vice President & Director for Trade & Global Markets, Progressive Policy Institute; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics - author of the Trade Fact of the Week Chris Padilla, Senior Advisor, Brunswick Group; former Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Joe Damond, Non-resident Senior Associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in their Southeast Asia program; former Deputy Assistant USTR for Asia

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Former Trade Negotiators Discuss This Week’s Tariff and Trade Developments

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