South Florida Mortgage Report

Craig Garcia and Bill Mei

South Florida's only dedicated weekly mortgage podcast. Hosted by Craig Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, LLC, and co-host Bill Mei. Weekly mortgage rate updates, loan program breakdowns, Florida condo market news, and real estate trends across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Straight talk for homebuyers, investors, and real estate professionals. 🌐 cp-mtg.com 📺 youtube.com/@craiggarciamortgage Craig Garcia | NMLS #653593 | Coral Springs, FL | Equal Housing Lender

  1. 1d ago

    Forget The Rate Hike, Oil Is Driving The Boat

    Forget the rate hike. Oil is driving the boat. The Fed raised rates Wednesday for the first time in three years. Twelve to nothing, not one dissent. It is the biggest thing they have done since 2023, and it is not the reason your rate is where it is. Rates don't wait for the Fed. The futures market had this hike at 90% two weeks ago, and the market prices in what it expects long before the announcement. So Craig Garcia and Bill Mei spend this one on the thing that actually has the wheel. A referral partner called Craig this week with the same question his wife had asked him: what happened to drill baby drill? We are producing more oil than at any point in our history. We are a net exporter. So why is gas still going up? The answer is a kid with a lemonade stand — the same kid from the Treasury episode in August, back with a different problem. There are twenty lemonade stands on the block. Nineteen buy lemons at the store. One kid has a lemon tree in the backyard. That's America. Then the road to the lemon warehouse washes out and store lemons go from a dollar to four dollars. His lemons didn't change. His price did. Because the kid three doors down just knocked on the door and offered him four bucks a lemon. Nothing changed in the backyard. Nothing changed in the tree. He's nine years old and he's not stupid. Then the number that ends the argument without ever taking a side on it. About 21 million barrels a day used to move through the Strait of Hormuz before the war — a fifth of everything the world burns, a quarter of all the oil that ever touches a boat. Roughly 13 million barrels a day that used to show up now don't. The United States, drilling harder than at any point in its history, pumps 13.8 million barrels a day. The hole in the world is the size of America. Also in this one: why the bond market hit a 19-year high on Wednesday and gave it all back by Thursday, why somebody lending money out for thirty years wants a Fed that raises rates rather than one that won't, and why oil is the match while the rate hike is the firewall. Warsh can't stop oil from spiking. He can stop every other business in town from using that spike as an excuse. Plus the good news nobody covered. The conforming loan limit moved early again. There is about twelve thousand dollars more available before a loan becomes a jumbo, and it is available now. Forget the rate hike. Oil is driving the boat. **CHAPTERS** 0:00 Two sentences about who is actually in charge 0:16 Welcome back, and a big week 0:34 Amendment 3 with Marty Kiar and Chip LaMarca 1:31 The Fed hikes a quarter point, twelve to nothing 1:41 So what did mortgage rates do? Basically nothing. 1:51 Rates don't wait for the Fed 2:12 The part that should have hurt — 16 of 18 see another hike 2:33 A 19-year high Wednesday, all of it back by Thursday 2:50 The bond market isn't afraid of a Fed that raises rates 3:24 "What happened to drill baby drill?" 4:13 The kid with the lemon tree 5:06 The road to the warehouse washes out 5:17 His lemons didn't change. His price did. 6:09 How bad is the road? The Strait of Hormuz. 6:33 The hole in the world is the size of America 6:53 "So even if we doubled—" We can't double. 7:25 If he can't touch oil, what's the point of a hike? 7:28 Oil is the match. The rate hike is the firewall. 9:07 One mandate is already done 9:30 The conforming loan limit moved early 10:47 "It was stuck at $417,000 for years" 11:31 Three percent down on an $871,000 house 12:03 Forget the rate hike — it's the oil Capital Partners Mortgage Services, NMLS #2332376. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org This is general information, not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Loan approval is subject to underwriting and program eligibility. Market commentary reflects conditions as of September 18, 2026 and changes daily. Loan limit availability varies by investor and program.

  2. 4d ago

    UAD 3.6: Six Pages Becomes 22. Now Your Appraiser Needs a Photo of Your Parking Spot

    On November 2, the appraisal report changes shape for the first time in over fifteen years. UAD 3.6 — the Uniform Appraisal Dataset behind the redesigned URAR — does not change how your home gets valued. It changes how it gets written up. Chris Aumente has been appraising since 1987 and has run his own firm in Palm Beach County since 1995. He's also building his first sample reports on the new form right now, so he isn't describing it. He's doing it. **Both handouts from this session, plus the longer write-up:** https://www.cp-mtg.com/uad-3-6-new-appraisal-report/ **WHAT CHANGES** • It is not a new way to value property. Chris said that four times, because it's what people get wrong. The valuation logic is untouched. The reporting is what changed. • Free-text comments become fixed data fields. "Updated," "renovated" and "remodeled" go away. His reason: renovated to one person is a new faucet and fresh paint. To another it's down to the studs. • Components get rated one to six individually — interior, exterior, and the pieces inside — instead of one grade for the whole house. • One dynamic web-based report replaces five forms: single-family, condo, co-op, vacant land, manufactured. It morphs to the property, so "order me a 1073" stops being a sentence. • Two new categories of field: disaster mitigation and green features. Hurricane straps, shutters, impact windows, solar and whether it's owned or leased — with photos, not a note. **THE NUMBERS** • 6 pages of analysis becomes 14 to 22. • November 2, 2026, mandated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. • Report-writing goes from 2-3 hours to 5-8, on his estimate. • A residential appraisal runs about $500 today, $350 to $550 across the market. What he hears appraisers discussing for the new report is $750 to $1,000 — his read on his industry, not a quote and not our fee schedule. • The average US appraiser is 54 to 57 years old. **WHAT A LISTING AGENT CAN DO NOW** • Fix the MLS listing. If it's a condo it says condo. If it's manufactured it says manufactured. • Stop writing "renovated." Write new appliances, new flooring, new countertops, and when. • Pull the permits and the certificates of occupancy before anyone asks. • Give the appraiser the four-point, not the home inspection. The four-point has the hurricane-strap photos and saves him the attic. The home inspection tells him about the pipe he didn't see and now has to report. • Bring the survey and the floor plan. A survey matching the building as it stands today is genuinely useful. One showing 1,000 square feet on a 4,000 square foot house is not. • Call your past clients once a year. "Hey, I'm updating our property records." Memories fade — the bathroom someone thinks they did two years ago was eight. **ONE CAVEAT, FROM THE RECORDING** Big changes have been pushed before when the industry wasn't ready, and Chris's own software can't import a sketch yet. Everything here is built on November 2 because that's the mandated date today. If it moves, we'll tell you. **Got a file you're not sure about?** Send us the real numbers and we'll tell you honestly what this does to your timeline. (954) 271-2024 · cp-mtg.com Capital Partners Mortgage Services, LLC · NMLS #2332376 · Craig Garcia, NMLS #653593 · Equal Housing Opportunity · NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org Educational only; not legal, tax or appraisal advice and not a commitment to lend. Page counts, timing and fee figures are as stated by our guest on September 17, 2026 and are his own. The November 2, 2026 date is set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and is subject to change. Chris Aumente is an independent appraiser, not affiliated with CPMS; his opinions are his own and not endorsements by CPMS. Appraisers independently determine scope of work and the opinion of value; CPMS does not attempt to influence an appraiser's value conclusion. All loans subject to credit, property, appraisal and program approval.

  3. 5d ago

    Amendment 3 Saves Broward Homeowners $1,879. Is That Worth What It Costs Your City?

    On November 3, Florida votes on Amendment 3. It would raise the homestead exemption by $200,000 over two years — and it needs 60% to pass. We got the two people best placed to explain it in the same room. Marty Kiar, the Broward County Property Appraiser, who ran the amendment against the actual 2025 tax roll. And State Representative Chip LaMarca, who voted to put it on your ballot. Marty has deliberately taken no public position, and his reason is worth the whole episode: "If I took a public position, the only people that would listen to me are the people that agree with me. And the people that don't agree with me would not listen to that information." So he brought data instead. Chip voted yes — and then told us the bill is not how he would have written it. Marty Kiar's full fiscal impact study, every city in Broward:https://www.cp-mtg.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/BROWARD-COUNTY-Fiscal-Impacts-for-Proposed-Constitutional-Amendment-003.pdf CHAPTERS 0:00 The 4% problem — what Amendment 3 costs Tamarac0:38 Intro1:56 The September 18 deadline, and what to bring7:34 "I hope they repeal that stupid law" — why your bill went up when your value went down9:47 What condo values actually did in 202612:52 How we got here: one tweet, and a $55 billion question16:56 The numbers — $150,000, then $250,00018:41 Chip LaMarca joins22:26 Why the Property Appraiser won't take a position28:05 Chip: yes or no on Amendment 330:30 Six years of city budgets — up 53% to 108%37:32 Why 60% is such a high bar39:20 The implementing bill that doesn't exist yet45:17 The Realtors are for it. The sheriffs are against it.55:27 If it passes, what gets cut first1:03:21 The Tamarac math, in full1:07:16 Chip alone — why this bill survived, and what comes next1:16:02 The judge threw out the ballot title ALSO IN THIS EPISODE The September 18 deadline to challenge your assessment, and exactly what to bringWhy your tax bill can go up in a year your market value went down — and why the Property Appraiser calls that law "stupid"What condo values actually did on the 2026 roll: newer luxury buildings up, older four-story-plus buildings down, and why Surfside-law reserve funding is the reasonHow this started — one tweet, a governor's retweet, and a study finding that eliminating all property taxes would pull $55–60 billion out of local government and need a 12–15% sales taxWhy 70% of Floridians said no to that, and how the conversation narrowed to homestead onlyWhy 60% is such a high bar: a $25,000 exemption failed at 58% in 2018, and a cost-of-living tweak passed at 61% in 2022What's missing — there's no implementing bill yet, and Marty explains why that worries himWhy the Realtors are for it and the sheriffs are against itThe judge who threw out the ballot title, and Chip's answer on whether it oversold the amendment LINKSAmendment 3 bill text: https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2026F/1F/?Tab=BillTextBroward County Property Appraiser: https://bcpa.netRep. Chip LaMarca: https://www.chiplamarca.com/ Got a scenario you want a straight answer on? Send us the real numbers and we'll tell you honestly what this does and doesn't do to your deal. Call (954) 271-2024 · condosupport@cp-mtg.com · cp-mtg.com The South Florida Mortgage Report — Craig A. Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, and Bill Mei. Capital Partners Mortgage Services, LLC · NMLS #2332376 · Equal Housing OpportunityNMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgThis is educational commentary and is not tax, legal or financial advice, and is not a commitment to lend. Figures cited are as stated by our guests on September 14, 2026 and are their own; property tax outcomes depend on your specific property, exemptions and local millage rates. The fiscal impact study linked above is the work of the Broward County Property Appraiser's office. Opinions expressed by guests are their own.

  4. Sep 15

    Broward Property Tax Deadline Is Friday. The Property Appraiser Says Don't Wait Until Friday

    Broward County homeowners: the deadline is Friday, September 18, 2026.If you think your property is assessed too high — or you're not getting an exemption you're entitled to — you have until Friday to start the process. After that, Marty Kiar is barred by statute from touching your property for this tax year, and you're stuck with the November bill.Marty Kiar is the Broward County Property Appraiser. In this clip he explains exactly what to do, and he makes one point worth hearing twice: **don't wait until Friday.** "It's actually way better to call me today than on Friday. Truthfully on Friday, if people call, we'll probably say you probably want to file a petition, because we're working on all these other ones."**What to do, in order:**1. **Go to bcpa.net and pull up your TRIM notice.** It came in the mail last month. It is not a bill — it's your Truth in Millage notice, and it shows what your property was valued at, every exemption you're getting, and what you're being asked to pay this year.2. **Check the value, and check the exemptions.** There are more exemptions than most people realize, and missing one costs real money.3. **If something looks wrong, call or email the Property Appraiser's office before Friday.** They will go through the property with you. Marty's own words: he can lower it, he can't raise it.4. **Or file a petition with the Value Adjustment Board — $25.** No lawyer required. Filing does two things: it lets his office keep working on your property after the 18th, and if they still can't help, it gets you in front of an independent special magistrate.Broward County Property Appraiser Site: https://bcpa.net/homepage.aspBCPA VAB Appeals Process: https://bcpa.net/value.asp**Bring evidence, not opinion.** He gives a real example in the clip — an owner sent in insurance paperwork and interior photos showing water damage and a dilapidated condition. That dropped the market value below the assessed value, which dropped the tax bill. Documents move the number. "My neighbor pays less" does not.**This is Broward County.** Florida's petition deadline is set per county off the date the TRIM notices went out, so if you're in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Martin or St. Lucie, check your own county's property appraiser for your date.**The full conversation** — Marty Kiar and State Representative Chip LaMarca on Amendment 3, what it saves the average Broward homeowner, and what it costs your city — is coming this week.*The South Florida Mortgage Report — Craig A. Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, and Bill Mei.*Capital Partners Mortgage Services, NMLS #2332376. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgThis is general information, not tax, legal or financial advice, and not a commitment to lend. Property tax deadlines, procedures and fees are set by Florida statute and by each county — confirm yours with your county Property Appraiser.**Subscribe for weekly market updates** on rates, inflation, jobs reports, and what actually moves mortgage pricing. 📍South Florida focus — national relevance. #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Fed #FannieMae #FreddieMac #MBS #Refinance #HomeBuying #SouthFloridaRealEstate 🎧 LISTEN & SUBSCRIBE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MORTGAGE REPORT 🔁 YouTube playlist (all episodes): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCOa_zSrotiecbiomGKhTzASCBToYQUea 📱 Subscribe & follow on your favorite platform: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/south-florida-mortgage-report/id1834181574 • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5QxG2PzPd3W9pJFqQnLAPS?si=5a667fbd60a44ce9 📌 HELPFUL LINKS 📩 Housing Newsletter: Stay informed with curated mortgage and housing insights delivered straight to your inbox: https://housingnewsletters.com/craiggarcia ✅ Pre-Approvals 24/7: Get started anytime: ⁠ Option 1⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/rhx8h ⁠Option 2⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/w2o7v

  5. Sep 13

    The Treasury Bought $6 Billion in Bonds. The Bond Market Laughed.

    Recorded Friday morning, while the long end was better. It didn't hold — the 10-year closed at 4.969, giving the rally back and finishing a shade above Thursday. Which, if anything, is the episode's point. On Wednesday the Treasury Secretary went to buy back bonds. The program was supposed to be four billion dollars. He bought six, and told the market not to bet against the house. Rates went up. Friday morning the inflation report came in hot on the one number people watch, and the long end of the bond market — the part your mortgage is actually priced off of — got better. Nobody spent a dollar to make that happen. Craig and Bill work through why those two things aren't a contradiction, and what it means for the Fed meeting on Wednesday. In this episode: What the inflation report actually said — one number beat forecast, by one tenth, and annual core went downWhy the Fed doesn't set your mortgage rate, and what it costs people who think it doesThe two interest rate markets, and the different question each one is askingWhy a 90% chance of a rate hike made long-term rates better, not worseThe $6 billion buyback, and the poker table that explains why it didn't move anythingWhere oil fits — and why it's not a forecast for inflation, it is inflationThree weeks, three times: the loudest thing Washington did, and what rates did insteadWhy the weekly rate survey you're reading is behind the marketThree takeaways, one for each of you: Own a home? This is the one that costs money this week. If the Fed hikes Wednesday, HELOCs, credit cards, car notes and business lines move almost immediately — they follow the short end. If you're carrying twenty thousand on a HELOC, Wednesday's meeting matters more to you than the 30-year does. Look at that before you look at a refinance. Buying? Three weeks running, the government did the loudest thing available and rates did something else. Waiting for Washington to fix your payment is not a plan. If a deal works today, it works today. Agent? When a client forwards you the hot inflation headline: that number is about the Fed, and the Fed doesn't set their mortgage rate. Long-term rates actually improved the morning it came out. Then show them what their payment did, in dollars. Send us the scenario and we'll run the payment — same day, most of the time. The South Florida Mortgage Report — Craig A. Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, and Bill Mei. Capital Partners Mortgage Services, NMLS #2332376. Equal Housing Opportunity.NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgThis is general information, not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Loan approval is subject to underwriting and program eligibility. Market commentary reflects conditions as of September 11, 2026 and changes daily. **Subscribe for weekly market updates** on rates, inflation, jobs reports, and what actually moves mortgage pricing. 📍South Florida focus — national relevance. #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Fed #FannieMae #FreddieMac #MBS #Refinance #HomeBuying #SouthFloridaRealEstate 🎧 LISTEN & SUBSCRIBE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MORTGAGE REPORT 🔁 YouTube playlist (all episodes): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCOa_zSrotiecbiomGKhTzASCBToYQUea 📱 Subscribe & follow on your favorite platform: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/south-florida-mortgage-report/id1834181574 • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5QxG2PzPd3W9pJFqQnLAPS?si=5a667fbd60a44ce9 📌 HELPFUL LINKS 📩 Housing Newsletter: Stay informed with curated mortgage and housing insights delivered straight to your inbox: https://housingnewsletters.com/craiggarcia ✅ Pre-Approvals 24/7: Get started anytime: ⁠ Option 1⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/rhx8h ⁠Option 2⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/w2o7v

  6. Sep 6

    Condo Reserve Rules Change in 2027. Your Board Votes This Fall — and It's $42 a Month.

    Your condo board is going to approve next year's budget sometime in October or November. One line on that budget decides whether the person buying your neighbor's unit can put a little down — or has to bring a pile of cash. On January 4th, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raise the amount a condo association has to put into reserves, from 10% of the budget to 15%. Same date for both. And it runs on application date, not closing date — which is the single most misunderstood part of this. Craig and Bill do the arithmetic on a real building: $2 million annual budget, 200 units. The gap between the old rule and the new one works out to about forty-two dollars a month per owner. That's the whole thing. The problem isn't the money. It's that boards adopt the budget before they hear about the rule, and once it's adopted it's locked for the year. IN THIS EPISODE The two dates that matter — August 3rd, which already happened, and January 4th, which hasn'tWhy the short-form condo review is gone, and every established building now gets the full file pulled apartThe $42 math, worked out loudWhy a board hitting 10% exactly is the board most likely to get caughtWhat actually happens if your building misses it — the honest answer, not the scary oneThe one piece of good news: Florida's post-crisis penalty is finally goneThe worst possible moment to find out your building has a problemTHREE TAKEAWAYS, ONE FOR EACH OF YOU Own a condo? Find out when your board votes on next year's budget. You almost certainly don't know, and it's the one meeting that affects your value most. On a board? You've got until roughly Thanksgiving. Don't guess at the number — not every line in your budget counts toward the calculation, and the ones that get excluded change the answer. Run it before you finalize. Buying or selling? It's the application date. An application dated January 3rd is under the old rule. FREE CONDO RESERVE CALCULATOR — no login, about two minuteshttps://cp-mtg.com/condo-reserve-requirements-2027/ Or send us the building. We've hand-reviewed hundreds of them across Florida, and most of the time we can tell you the same day. Get the budget at the listing appointment, not on day 25. CHAPTERS 0:00 The $42 nobody told your board about1:05 Two dates: August 3rd and January 4th1:40 Application date, not closing date2:55 What changes: reserves go from 10% to 15%3:50 What already changed in August: the short-form review is gone5:28 The $42 math7:24 Why not funding it is the more expensive option8:00 Why most boards don't know — and why budget season is now9:30 The trap: the boards that hit 10% exactly11:39 The good news: Florida isn't being penalized anymore16:10 What if your building misses it?17:01 The worst possible way to find out19:06 Three takeaways23:04 Where rates landed this week The South Florida Mortgage Report — Craig A. Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, and Bill Mei. Capital Partners Mortgage Services, NMLS #2332376. Equal Housing Opportunity.NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgThis is general information, not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Loan approval is subject to underwriting and program eligibility. **Subscribe for weekly market updates** on rates, inflation, jobs reports, and what actually moves mortgage pricing. 📍South Florida focus — national relevance. 🎧 LISTEN & SUBSCRIBE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MORTGAGE REPORT 🔁 YouTube playlist (all episodes): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCOa_zSrotiecbiomGKhTzASCBToYQUea 📱 Subscribe & follow on your favorite platform: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/south-florida-mortgage-report/id1834181574 • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5QxG2PzPd3W9pJFqQnLAPS?si=5a667fbd60a44ce9 ✅ Pre-Approvals 24/7: Get started anytime: ⁠ Option 1⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/rhx8h ⁠ Option 2⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/w2o7v

  7. Aug 31

    The Fed Just Opened the Door to a Rate HIKE. Your Mortgage Barely Flinched.

    Kevin Warsh got up at Jackson Hole on Friday and cracked the door on a rate HIKE. Odds of a September hike went from 35% to 57.5% overnight. Then the average lender moved the 30-year up six hundredths of a percent. On a $400,000 loan, that's $15.97 a month. Craig Garcia and Bill Mei break down what actually happened to the whole yield curve on Friday, why the part of it that touches your mortgage barely flinched, and why a Fed chair talking tough is better news for your rate than a Fed chair being nice. And then the number nobody covers: there is currently $101.53 a month of extra markup sitting in the average mortgage — six and a half times what Friday's headline cost. Where it comes from, who's actually charging it, and the one thing that makes it come down. CHAPTERS0:00 The $15.97 headline0:57 What Warsh actually said at Jackson Hole2:18 Why Jackson Hole isn't just another Fed speech3:17 The whole yield curve, translated into dollars4:44 What lenders actually did Friday afternoon5:49 The Fed's remote control has exactly one button7:35 Why a 30-year mortgage prices off the 10-year8:19 The real reason rates go up fast and down slow9:56 Oil, the Strait of Hormuz, and why interest rates can't move a ship12:01 Lending Bill $100 for thirty years: the grownup vs. the babysitter13:51 What if Warsh had been nice on Friday?15:17 Callback: the Treasury buyback episode gave us $5.3016:29 Three ways this could be wrong17:33 The markup: $101.53 a month nobody talks about19:10 The one thing that brings it down20:19 For agents: what to say to a rattled buyer, word for word21:21 For homeowners: $75,000 vs $400,000, same damage22:35 The four-second version THE NUMBERS IN THIS EPISODE2-year Treasury +12.5 bp to 4.34%10-year Treasury +5.6 bp to 4.726%30-year Treasury +1.6 bp to 5.21%Average 30-year mortgage 6.81% (+0.06% Friday, per Mortgage News Daily)September hike odds 35.4% → 57.5% (CME FedWatch)PCE inflation 3.7% over 12 months, 4.1% over 6Brent crude $90.69 **Subscribe for weekly market updates** on rates, inflation, jobs reports, and what actually moves mortgage pricing. 📍South Florida focus — national relevance. #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Fed #FannieMae #FreddieMac #MBS #Refinance #HomeBuying #SouthFloridaRealEstate 🎧 LISTEN & SUBSCRIBE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MORTGAGE REPORT 🔁 YouTube playlist (all episodes): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCOa_zSrotiecbiomGKhTzASCBToYQUea 📱 Subscribe & follow on your favorite platform: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/south-florida-mortgage-report/id1834181574 • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5QxG2PzPd3W9pJFqQnLAPS?si=5a667fbd60a44ce9 📌 HELPFUL LINKS 📩 Housing Newsletter: Stay informed with curated mortgage and housing insights delivered straight to your inbox: https://housingnewsletters.com/craiggarcia ✅ Pre-Approvals 24/7: Get started anytime: ⁠ Option 1⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/rhx8h ⁠Option 2⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/w2o7v

  8. Aug 22

    The Treasury Just Doubled Its Bond Buybacks. Your Mortgage Payment Moved $5

    Wednesday morning the Treasury doubled its long-bond buyback program — two billion per operation to four billion, aimed squarely at the ten-to-thirty-year debt that mortgage rates are priced off. The thirty-year Treasury had just hit 5.32%, the highest since 2007. Yields dropped on the news. Stocks liked it. Bitcoin liked it. By Thursday it was all back. Craig Garcia and Bill Mei walk through what actually happened, in plain English — including the part most coverage skipped: where the Treasury gets the money to buy its own debt back. (It borrows it. Short term.) Nothing got paid off. The pile got moved. Then the honest scale of it. Four billion dollars sounds enormous until you put it against $525 billion a quarter of new borrowing — it's three percent. Shrink that to a household and it's borrowing $525,000 and buying back $16,000 of it. And the number that matters if you're in real estate: after the biggest move Washington has made on long rates in months, Freddie Mac's survey came in at 6.65%, down from 6.67%. On a $400,000 loan that's **five dollars and thirty cents a month.** Also in this one — why this isn't QE and why that distinction matters, what Mohamed El-Erian, Joe Brusuelas of RSM, Rebecca Patterson of the Council on Foreign Relations and David Scutt of StoneX are all saying about the risks, and the uncomfortable question underneath the whole thing: is the Treasury running the play the new Fed chair can't be seen running? Because in September the Fed may hike short rates to fight inflation while the Treasury buys long bonds to push long rates down. Same government. Opposite directions. Same month. Plus the September 2024 reminder every buyer waiting on the Fed should hear: the Fed cut by half a point, and within a month the thirty-year fixed had climbed from 6.08% to about 6.52%. Rates don't wait for the Fed. 📞 **Got a scenario or a condo you want us to look at?** (954) 271-2024 🏢 **Free condo building pre-review:** condosupport@cp-mtg.com **Chapters** - 0:00 What the Treasury announced Wednesday morning - 1:02 We called this on the "new sheriff in town" episode - 1:46 Quantitative easing, the reader's digest version - 2:29 This wasn't Warsh — it was Bessent. Treasury, not the Fed. - 2:54 Explain it like I'm six: the government's IOUs - 3:57 The 30-year hits 5.32% — highest since 2007 - 4:41 Where does the money come from? (this is the whole thing) - 4:51 The lemonade stand and the thirty-year kids - 5:46 Is this QE? No — and here's the difference - 6:24 The legitimate reason: liquidity - 6:53 $4 billion against a $525 billion quarter - 8:05 Wednesday it worked. Thursday it all came back. - 8:55 Why the fade is the real story - 9:08 El-Erian: "the possibility of a broader deployment of yield curve control" - 10:05 "If you can't address the fundamental problem… you start financial engineering" - 10:35 RSM's chief economist: "a temporary salve to an open financial wound" - 11:18 CFR's Rebecca Patterson: "more signal than substance" - 11:53 The other side — why this isn't yield curve control - 12:45 Why Treasury and not the Fed? (speculation, clearly labeled) - 14:39 The Fed hikes while Treasury pushes down — same month - 15:05 Agents: your buyer's payment moved $5.30 - 16:19 Watch the 30-year Treasury, not the Fed - 17:29 On waiting for a big drop - 18:18 Homeowners: if you have a HELOC, watch September - 18:36 None of this tells you whether to buy a house in Broward County - 19:58 Two dates: September 9 and the September Fed meeting - 20:25 Four years of Capital Partners — and the people still waiting - 22:50 September 2024: the Fed cut 50 basis points and mortgage rates went up

About

South Florida's only dedicated weekly mortgage podcast. Hosted by Craig Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, LLC, and co-host Bill Mei. Weekly mortgage rate updates, loan program breakdowns, Florida condo market news, and real estate trends across Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Straight talk for homebuyers, investors, and real estate professionals. 🌐 cp-mtg.com 📺 youtube.com/@craiggarciamortgage Craig Garcia | NMLS #653593 | Coral Springs, FL | Equal Housing Lender