Energy Markets Daily

EMD
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Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions. Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector. Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by Daily Dominance and utilizes artificial intelligence technology for content creation and production. The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Daily Dominance. All content is generated with the intent to provide informative and engaging material; however, the accuracy and reliability of the information presented may vary. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast. By listening to this podcast, you acknowledge and agree to these terms.

  1. 9h ago

    Geographic Feature: Uruguay

    Wednesday, August 19, 2026. URUGUAY ENERGY PROFILE: Uruguay has negligible domestic oil and natural gas production as of 2025-2026 and relies almost entirely on imports for fossil fuels. Exploratory drilling for offshore oil and gas is scheduled to begin in 2026, but commercial production is not expected in the near term (likely years away even with discoveries). CURRENT PRODUCTION: Oil production about 1,411.6 barrels per day of oil and petroleum liquids in 2025 (down 1.8% YoY), ranking #104 globally; essentially no crude oil production (0 bpd reported). No proven oil reserves (Worldometers and other trackers report no proven oil reserves for Uruguay). No natural gas production (Uruguay produces no natural gas domestically and has no proven reserves; imports via pipelines from Argentina). Oil consumption context (consumption declined to around 45,000-49,800 bpd recently, down from over 65,000 bpd in 2012, supported by strong renewables). OFFSHORE EXPLORATION RAMP-UP: Offshore blocks (ANCAP licensed seven offshore blocks; seismic acquisition started in 2025, exploratory drilling planned for 2026, first deepwater well in ~a decade by APA in H2 2026). Major companies involved (partners include Shell, QatarEnergy, Chevron, and APA; YPF Argentina expressed interest in nearby blocks). Geological potential (similarities to Namibia's discoveries; ANCAP estimates 3-23% probability of oil/gas in offshore areas, speculative potential up to 30 billion barrels). Exploration timeline (contracts cover all ~120,000 sq km of offshore acreage; drilling phase expected to last at least 4 years, possibly extendable). Investment and activity (over $200 million in commitments; first significant offshore test well in a decade set for 2026). ENERGY INDEPENDENCE HOPES: Strategic goal (successful discoveries could eventually meet domestic oil needs and enable exports, complementing Uruguay's renewable leadership: wind, solar, hydro). Natural gas exploration included (offshore blocks target both oil and gas; no near-term domestic production expected). REFINING & BROADER CONTEXT: Refining (La Teja refinery, only one in country, processes imported crude for domestic needs). Broader energy context (oil and gas sector underdeveloped; focus remains on renewables while testing offshore hydrocarbons). No 2026 production forecast (exploration phase means any commercial output would be post-2026 at earliest; current "production" figures reflect minor/non-crude liquids or statistical artifacts). Recent policy/activity (government authorized seismic projects in 2025; ongoing interest despite renewable focus). THE READ: Uruguay negligible domestic oil and natural gas production 2025-2026, relies almost entirely on imports, exploratory drilling scheduled 2026, commercial production not expected near term, years away even with discoveries; oil production 1,411.6 bpd 2025, down 1.8% YoY, ranking #104 globally, essentially no crude oil production, zero bpd; no proven oil reserves; no natural gas production domestically, no proven reserves, imports via pipelines from Argentina; oil consumption 45,000-49,800 bpd recently, down from 65,000+ 2012, strong renewables; ANCAP licensed seven offshore blocks, seismic acquisition started 2025, exploratory drilling planned 2026, first deepwater well ~a decade by APA H2 2026; partners Shell, QatarEnergy, Chevron, APA, YPF Argentina interested nearby blocks; similarities Namibia discoveries, ANCAP 3-23% probability oil/gas offshore, speculative potential 30 billion barrels; contracts ~120,000 sq km offshore acreage, drilling phase 4+ years; over $200 million commitments, first significant offshore test well a decade 2026; successful discoveries could meet domestic oil needs and enable exports, complementing renewable leadership, wind, solar, hydro; offshore blocks target oil and gas, no near-term domestic production; La Teja refinery, only one, imported crude domestic needs; oil and gas sector underdeveloped, focus renewables, testing offshore hydrocarbons; exploration phase post-2026 earliest, current production minor/non-crude liquids or statistical artifacts; government authorized seismic projects 2025, ongoing interest despite renewable focus. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

  2. 1d ago

    Technicals: Week 33

    Tuesday, August 18, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Investing.com (Aug 18 update) Overall Strong Buy signal; moving averages showed 11 Buy vs. 1 Sell; technical indicators unanimously Strong Buy (8/0). Barchart (Aug 17 technical analysis for Sep '26) Price closed higher (~84.61, +2.21 or +2.68% intraday in one snapshot); 5-day average ~82.90; 20-day ~82.53, with positive momentum noted. Economies.com (Aug 17 analyses) Crude oil fluctuated but held early gains with positive support from trading above key levels; preparation to resume upward moves on strong technical support after minor intraday dips. OneUpTrader (Aug 17 analysis) WTI erased early-August declines and returned to recurring 82-83 pivot zone; key resistance at 83.04 (session high/pivot); support at 81.50 (session low) and faster MA near 78.75; bullish continuation possible above 83.04 toward 87-88. FXStreet (recent hourly/daily bias) Mildly bearish near-term bias below 100-hour SMA (~81.18) but holding above 200-hour SMA and $80 support; RSI neutral/slightly downside; resistances at ~81.94, 83.57, 84.50. LiteFinance (Aug 17-18 update) USCrude around $84.14 as of Aug 18; expected consolidation on Aug 18; weekly range outlook ~67.93-97.41. Barchart (Aug '26 contract snapshot) Buy signal with strong strength; key turning points included resistance near 86.39-89.94 and support at 82.84-80.77. CME Group / market data (Aug 17-18) WTI last ~84.85 (+0.35); September contract active with positive daily closes reported around 84-85. Oilprice.com / Yahoo Finance snapshots Sep 2026 futures ~84.50-85.14 range on Aug 17-18, with day ranges like 84.62-85.37 and modest positive closes. FX Empire / YouTube forecasts (mid-Aug context) Bullish signals from falling wedge breakouts earlier in month, targeting higher levels (e.g., $94 area) if supports like ~82.50 held; recent videos noted extensions of gains. Additional context Earlier August saw sharp moves (e.g., breakdown tests near $74-77), with recovery into 80s by mid-month. Overall tone Constructive/bullish on Aug 17-18, driven by price action reclaiming moving averages and pivots near 82-83; some noted near-term consolidation risks or overhead resistance; geopolitical factors (Hormuz/Middle East) referenced as potential drivers but secondary to chart levels; prices showed +2%+ daily gains on Aug 17 in multiple reports. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Front-month contracts (NGQ26/Aug '26 or NGU26/Sep '26) Trading near $2.67-$2.73/MMBtu, with recent spot prices around $2.79. Shriram Insight pivots for Henry Hub Sep-26 contract (as of Aug 17, 2026; close 2.733) S3 2.628, S2 2.669, S1 2.701, Pivot 2.742, R1 2.774, R2 2.815, R3 2.847. Barchart key turning points for NGQ26 (Aug '26; last ~2.725) 3rd resistance 2.942, 2nd resistance 2.856, 1st resistance 2.791; 1st support 2.640, 2nd support 2.554, 3rd support 2.489. Multiyear lows Tested near $2.50-$2.56 (e.g., Bollinger Band support mentioned in July 2026 commentary). Broader range references Support near $2.65 and resistance in $3.30 area (medium-term views). Recent daily closes/levels Hovered around $2.67-$2.79, with volatility tied to storage, supply, and weather. EIA PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT (Week Ending Aug 7, Released Aug 12): U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) Rose sharply by 17.4 million barrels in week ending Aug 7, 2026, reaching 424.4 million barrels. Prior week Smaller increase of 2.479 million barrels (week ending July 31), bringing stocks to approximately 407 million barrels. Five-year average comparison Crude oil inventories stood about 6% below five-year average for time of year. Refinery crude runs Averaged 17.2 million barrels per day in week ending Aug 7 (down 183,000 bpd from prior week), with operable capacity utilization at 96.5%. Total commercial petroleum inventories Increased by 11.6 million barrels in earlier comparable week. Gasoline inventories Rose modestly in recent weeks (e.g., +0.8 million barrels in one period) but remained ~7% below five-year average. Distillate inventories Mixed changes, with builds or draws of 1-3+ million barrels in recent weeks and levels ~10% below average. Cushing hub Crude stocks rose notably in prior weeks (e.g., +2.356 million barrels). Net U.S. crude imports Increased in recent reporting periods (e.g., +297,000 bpd in one week). SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) Total holdings in ~300+ million barrel range across sites as of early Aug 2026, distinct from commercial inventories. Next report For week ending Aug 14, scheduled for release Aug 19, 2026. THE READ: Crude technicals Investing.com Strong Buy, 11 Buy vs. 1 Sell, 8 to 0 Strong Buy; Barchart 84.61 +2.21 or +2.68%, 5-day 82.90, 20-day 82.53, positive momentum; Economies.com held early gains, positive support, upward moves, strong technical support; OneUpTrader 82-83 pivot, 83.04 resistance, 81.50 support, 78.75 MA, bullish above 83.04 toward 87-88; FXStreet mildly bearish below 100-hour SMA 81.18, above 200-hour SMA and $80, RSI neutral, re...

  3. 2d ago

    Strategic Positioning: Week 33

    Monday, August 17, 2026. WEEK 33 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI at $82.09, down 0.38% from prior day per CFD/benchmark report; another note indicated rise toward $82.44 amid market movements. Aug 16 around $82.08 (delayed quote/settlement reference); one historical table listed 81.52 with -1.07% change; intraday trading referenced opens near $82.53 and ranges in low $82s. Aug 14 settlement $82.40 (up 1.42%). Aug 13 $81.25 settlement (down 2.43%). Front-month WTI futures CLU26 Sep 2026 traded on NYMEX. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 11 spot (latest reported) $2.79 (up from $2.72 on Aug 10). Earlier Aug: Aug 7 ~$2.56; Aug 6/5 ~$2.60; Aug 4 ~$2.74. CME Henry Hub futures (mid-Aug 2026) trading around $2.66-$2.72 on Aug 16, 2026, with daily changes roughly -0.4% to -2.7%. Broader natural gas (CFD tracking Henry Hub) around $2.66-$2.73 on Aug 16-17, 2026, reflecting downward pressure. EIA Q3 2026 expectations around $2.87 in some outlooks. 2026 averages low-to-mid $3 range. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Aug 14 (Friday) only 2 vessels transited (one grain carrier entering Iranian waters, one empty dry bulk carrier exiting); separately empty LPG tanker noted heading through; no crude oil cargoes observed (Kpler analysis); nine vessels passed prior Thursday; five on Wednesday. Aug 13 13 confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings (MarineTraffic data: 7 entering Gulf, 6 exiting; mix of vessel types including some sanctioned/shadow vessels). Aug 13/14 context Hormuz shipping traffic shows no sign of recovery (per gCaptain reports citing trade data); PortWatch recorded just 1 transit on Aug 9 against pre-crisis baseline of ~73 per day. Aug 10 (Monday) traffic fell to 6 vessels (vs. 10-day average of ~11); included 4 commodity vessels entering (two empty oil product tankers) and 2 exiting (one small LPG tanker, one with residual fuels) (Kpler/Reuters). Around Aug 11-12 5-day average of ~13 transits (all ship types), near three-month low and ~90% below pre-war levels (Kpler data via CNBC analysis). Aug 5 8 vessels transited (including 5 tankers and 3 bulk carriers; Kpler data). Aug 15 (or recent daily snapshot) 16 vessels recorded transiting (mix including dry bulk carriers, chemical tanker, oil tanker). Mid-Aug daily example (Windward data, ~Aug 15 context) 13 total crossings (4 inbound, 9 outbound), with several running AIS-dark for extended periods; composition included tankers, bulk carriers, cargo vessels. Broader Aug trend traffic remains well below pre-crisis norms; reports of attacks on vessels (including ADNOC-linked tankers) contributing to caution; some sources note Iranian-linked or shadow fleet activity and limited commercial flows. Overall context cumulative effects from crisis (including prior attacks, threats, stalled diplomacy) kept flows suppressed since spring/summer; occasional slight rebounds but no sustained recovery to normal levels as of mid-Aug. Pre-crisis baselines consistently cited as much higher (often 100+ daily). THE READ: Crude WTI $82.09 down 0.38%; Aug 16 $82.08; Aug 14 settlement $82.40 up 1.42%; Aug 13 $81.25 down 2.43%; front-month CLU26 Sep 2026 NYMEX. Gas Aug 11 spot $2.79 up from $2.72 Aug 10; earlier Aug 7 $2.56, Aug 6/5 $2.60, Aug 4 $2.74; CME Henry Hub futures mid-Aug $2.66-$2.72 Aug 16, daily changes -0.4% to -2.7%; broader natural gas CFD $2.66-$2.73 Aug 16-17, downward pressure; EIA Q3 2026 $2.87; 2026 averages low-to-mid $3. Hormuz Aug 14 only 2 vessels, grain carrier Iranian waters, empty dry bulk exiting, empty LPG heading through, no crude oil, Kpler, nine prior Thursday, five Wednesday; Aug 13 13 crossings, MarineTraffic 7 entering 6 exiting, sanctioned/shadow vessels, no recovery, gCaptain, PortWatch 1 transit Aug 9 vs. 73 pre-crisis; Aug 10 6 vessels vs. 10-day average 11, 4 commodity entering, 2 empty oil product tankers, 2 exiting, 1 small LPG, 1 residual fuels, Kpler Reuters; Aug 11-12 5-day average 13 transits, three-month low, 90% below pre-war, Kpler CNBC; Aug 5 8 vessels, 5 tankers 3 bulk; Aug 15 16 vessels, dry bulk, chemical tanker, oil tanker; mid-Aug Windward 13 crossings, 4 inbound 9 outbound, AIS-dark, tankers bulk cargo; Aug trend well below pre-crisis, attacks ADNOC tankers, Iranian-linked shadow fleet, limited flows; crisis cumulative effects, attacks threats stalled diplomacy, suppressed since spring/summer, occasional rebounds, no sustained recovery mid-Aug; pre-crisis 100+ daily. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

  4. 5d ago

    Geographic Feature: Zimbabwe

    Friday, August 15, 2026. ZIMBABWE ENERGY PROFILE: Zimbabwe's 2026 developments in energy, oil/gas, mining, and lithium focus on a lithium export and processing boom alongside early-stage oil/gas exploration, supported by policy shifts toward local beneficiation and foreign (especially Chinese) investment. LITHIUM BOOM: Export earnings $782 million in first six months of 2026 (more than triple the $237 million from prior comparable period). Global position: Accounted for nearly 10% of global lithium production in 2025; leads African output. Major operations: Bikita Minerals (Sinomine), Arcadia (Huayou Cobalt/Prospect Lithium), Kamativi (Yahua), Sabi Star, Sandawana; Chinese firms invested over $1 billion since 2021. Processing plants: Huayou's lithium sulphate production at Arcadia (early 2026 start); $500 million Goromonzi facility (Africa's first, world's third such plant, targeting 60,000 tonnes capacity). Export controls: Feb 2026 government ban on exports of raw mineral ore and lithium concentrates to enforce local processing and value addition. INVESTMENT & POLICY: Record approvals: $1.59 billion in new projects approved in Q2 2026; mining/manufacturing ~80% (~$768.5 million for mining focused on gold, platinum, lithium). Critical minerals: Nickel, copper, lithium declared critical minerals alongside oil/gas, coal, gold. Mining sector weight: 14% of GDP, 75% of export earnings, 20% of government revenues in 2024. Beneficiation focus: Multiple processing/refining initiatives and state equity stakes to capture more value domestically. OIL & GAS EXPLORATION: Cabora Bassa Basin project (Invictus Energy): Largest oil/gas exploration effort; targeting ~1.2 trillion cubic feet of gas and 73 million barrels of condensate; Musuma-1 well spud planned for November 2026. Landmark deal: Gas production deal signed in 2026 for Cabora Bassa project, advancing commercialization with international partnerships. Broader push: Zimbabwe seeking partnerships for oil/gas development amid regional Southern/East African momentum; confirmed viable gas/oil via advanced tech. AFRICA-WIDE CONTEXT: Regional output: Zimbabwe drives much of continent's lithium output (part of 124k+ tons LCE regionally); costs competitive with growing state participation mandates. Export controls impact: Zimbabwe's restrictions (alongside others) noted in 2026 critical minerals outlooks as tightening supply chains for battery metals. THE READ: Zimbabwe lithium export earnings $782M first six months 2026, triple prior period; nearly 10% global lithium production 2025; leads African output; major operations Bikita Minerals, Arcadia, Kamativi, Sabi Star, Sandawana; Chinese firms over $1B since 2021; Huayou lithium sulphate Arcadia early 2026; $500M Goromonzi facility, Africa's first, world's third, 60k tonnes capacity; Feb 2026 ban raw mineral ore/lithium concentrates, local processing/value addition; record approvals $1.59B Q2 2026, mining/manufacturing 80%, $768.5M mining, gold/platinum/lithium; nickel/copper/lithium critical minerals; mining 14% GDP, 75% export earnings, 20% government revenues 2024; processing/refining initiatives, state equity stakes; Cabora Bassa Basin Invictus Energy, largest oil/gas exploration, 1.2T cubic feet gas, 73M barrels condensate, Musuma-1 well spud Nov 2026; gas production deal 2026, commercialization, international partnerships; regional Southern/East African momentum, confirmed viable gas/oil; Zimbabwe drives continent's lithium output, 124k+ tons LCE regionally, competitive costs, state participation mandates; export controls tightening supply chains battery metals. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

  5. 6d ago

    Geographic Feature: Washington State

    Thursday, August 14, 2026. WASHINGTON STATE ENERGY PROFILE: Washington state has no meaningful in-state crude oil or natural gas production. No crude oil production: Zero commercial production since early 1960s; exploration dating back to 1900 yielded only negligible amounts. No natural gas production: State produces none; nearly all natural gas consumed is imported, primarily from Canada. Refining capacity: Fifth-largest crude oil refining capacity in U.S. (five refineries processing ~650,000 barrels per day), but all crude is imported (historically from Alaska, now increasingly via pipeline from Canada or rail from other U.S. regions). Natural gas consumption: Mainly for power generation, heating, and industry; Canada is dominant supplier; electric power sector use has grown since ~2013. Policy context: Natural gas faces regulation under Climate Commitment Act (emissions cap-and-trade) and related decarbonization efforts, though it remains in use for reliability amid growing electricity demand. Broader energy profile: Net energy importer overall; hydropower dominates electricity generation; natural gas is secondary source (~16% of in-state generation in recent data); oil and gas production plays no role. No 2026 shifts: Official sources consistently describe zero or negligible activity; no projections indicate shift toward in-state fossil fuel production. THE READ: Washington state zero crude oil production since early 1960s; zero natural gas production; imports nearly all natural gas from Canada; fifth-largest U.S. refining capacity 650,000 barrels per day; all crude imported from Alaska, Canada, or other U.S. regions; natural gas for power generation, heating, industry; Canada dominant supplier; electric power sector use growing since 2013; Climate Commitment Act regulation; emissions cap-and-trade; decarbonization efforts; reliability concerns amid growing electricity demand; net energy importer; hydropower dominates generation; natural gas 16% of in-state generation; oil and gas production zero; no 2026 shifts; official sources zero or negligible activity; no projections indicate shift toward in-state fossil fuel production. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

  6. Aug 12

    Fifth Consecutive Monthly Hike

    Wednesday, August 13, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI Sep 2026 futures trading $82.10-$83.38; recent trade $83.10 +0.97 on Aug 11 data; settlement/open levels $82.25-$82.88; up ~1%+ intraday in some sessions. WTI Aug 2026 futures ~$84.91. Oct 2026 ~$81.06-$81.52. Nov 2026 ~$79.76. Recent spot/WTI prices (early Aug 2026) around $78-$82 range; examples include ~$81.96 on Aug 3; ~$78.16-$78.78 in early/mid-August; decline to ~$77.11 on Aug 4. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Aug 2026): Brent spot forecast averaging ~$85/bbl in Q3 2026 (WTI typically trades at discount to Brent); 2027 average ~$69. Bloomberg energy snapshot (Aug 11): WTI ~$83.05-$83.45 (Aug/Sep 2026 contracts); Brent ~$88.71 (Sep 2026). Recent opens/closes: WTI futures opened ~$78.31 on Aug 7; ~$77.74 on Aug 10; recent closes/settlements in low-to-mid $82 area on Aug 10-11. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 3 spot (latest reported) $2.81/MMBtu. Sep 2026 futures (NGU26) $2.77-$2.79/MMBtu (recent trades around $2.754-$2.789). Oct 2026 (NGV26) ~$2.835/MMBtu. Recent spot prices (early Aug 2026) low-to-mid $2.60s-$2.80s range. EIA forecast Q3 2026 average around $2.87/MMBtu; prices expected to stay below $3.00/MMBtu through much of period due to high storage and production. 2026 annual average forecasts $2.89-$3.50 range depending on source/timing. OPEC+ PRODUCTION: August 2026 quota increase +188,000 bpd (effective from start of month). Core countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman. Cumulative increase (Apr-Aug 2026) 958,000 bpd total. Trend: Fifth consecutive monthly hike; further similar increases expected (e.g., another ~188,000 bpd potentially for September). Context: Phased unwinding of earlier voluntary production cuts (originally from 2023). Note on actual vs. target: Announced quotas reflect targets amid ongoing market reviews (e.g., post-Iran conflict dynamics affecting shipping in Strait of Hormuz). Physical output may lag due to logistical/geopolitical factors; some reports noting subdued tanker activity despite quota hikes. OPEC+ crude output reached approximately 43.05 million bpd in September 2025; 2026 demand for OPEC+ crude projected around 43.1 million bpd. 2026 global oil demand growth: OPEC raising forecast to ~1.4 million bpd growth. OPEC MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT: Release date August 12, 2026. Includes detailed supply/demand data and actual production estimates. Latest available July 2026 edition. THE READ: Crude WTI Sep 2026 $82.10-$83.38; recent trade $83.10 +0.97; settlement/open $82.25-$82.88; up ~1%+; WTI Aug 2026 $84.91; Oct 2026 $81.06-$81.52; Nov 2026 $79.76; recent spot/WTI early Aug $78-$82 range; $81.96 Aug 3; $78.16-$78.78 early/mid-Aug; decline to $77.11 Aug 4; EIA STEO Aug 2026 Brent $85/bbl Q3; WTI discount to Brent; 2027 average $69; Bloomberg Aug 11 WTI $83.05-$83.45 Aug/Sep 2026; Brent $88.71 Sep 2026; recent opens/closes WTI Aug 7 $78.31; Aug 10 $77.74; recent closes/settlements low-to-mid $82 Aug 10-11. Gas: Aug 3 spot $2.81; Sep 2026 NGU26 $2.77-$2.79; recent trades $2.754-$2.789; Oct 2026 NGV26 $2.835; recent spot early Aug low-to-mid $2.60s-$2.80s; EIA Q3 2026 average $2.87; prices below $3.00 through much of period; high storage/production; 2026 annual average $2.89-$3.50. OPEC+: Aug 2026 quota +188,000 bpd; core countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman; cumulative Apr-Aug 2026 958,000 bpd; fifth consecutive monthly hike; further similar increases expected; another 188,000 potentially September; phased unwinding earlier voluntary production cuts from 2023; announced quotas reflect targets amid ongoing market reviews; post-Iran conflict dynamics affecting Strait of Hormuz shipping; physical output may lag; subdued tanker activity despite quota hikes; OPEC+ output Sept 2025 43.05 million bpd; 2026 demand OPEC+ crude 43.1 million bpd; 2026 global oil demand growth OPEC raising forecast 1.4 million bpd. OPEC MOMR: Aug 12 2026 release; detailed supply/demand data and actual production estimates; latest available July 2026 edition. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

  7. Aug 11

    Technicals: Week 32

    Tuesday, August 12, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading around $82.38, up 0.30%. Daily range $81.99-$82.50. Technical summary: Overall Strong Buy. Moving averages Strong Buy (12 buy, 0 sell). Technical indicators Strong Buy (7 buy, 0 sell). All major moving average periods (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) showing buy signals. Indicators: RSI(14) at 77.6 (overbought); Stochastic overbought; MACD buy; ADX buy; CCI buy; several others neutral to buy. Pivot points: $82.21 pivot; support $81.83-$82.02; resistance $82.40-$82.59. Recent action: Sharp 4% drop on Aug 4 to $77.11 on US-Iran diplomatic news; recovered toward $80-$82 zone. Key support: Psychological $75 major zone; 200-day MA near $78 as dynamic support. Key resistance: $80 (prior support turned resistance); 50-day MA around $82. Barchart Sep '26: Price near $78.70; shorter-term MAs mixed; Stochastic/RSI neutral-to-bearish on very short timeframes. Longer-term forecasts: August 2026 ranges $61-$93 (high volatility); mid-$80s recovery later in year. EIA outlook: Brent projected $74/bbl in Q3 2026. J.P. Morgan: Brent Q3 2026 average $86, gradual decline into year-end. Prediction markets: Probabilities around touching $75-$80 levels during August 2026. Overall bias: Bullish on MAs and aggregate indicators, but overbought readings (RSI) and geopolitical volatility warrant caution. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Aug 11 spot $2.77/MMBtu (down 1% from prior day). Aug 3 spot $2.81/MMBtu. Jul 2026 monthly average $2.89/MMBtu. Recent daily closes: Aug 7 ~$2.67; Aug 6 ~$2.63; Aug 5 ~$2.67; Aug 4 ~$2.69; Aug 3 ~$2.77. Futures (NGU26) trading around $2.73-$2.78. EIA forecast: 2026 annual average Henry Hub spot prices near $3.50-$3.67/MMBtu. Market note: Ample storage and supply despite summer demand. EIA WEEKLY PETROLEUM STATUS REPORT: Release date August 12, 2026 (after 10:30 a.m. ET). Covers week ending August 7, 2026. Prior release (Aug 5): Week ending July 31 — U.S. crude oil inventories rose +2.479 million barrels (vs. expectations of -1.5M draw); stocks reached ~407M barrels. Cushing OK stocks +2.356M barrels. Key watch: Changes in crude stocks, refinery utilization, gasoline/distillate inventories, imports. Note: Starting with Aug 12 report, EIA discontinuing standalone PDF figures in favor of new data visualizations. THE READ: Crude WTI $82.38, up 0.30%; Overall Strong Buy; all major MAs bullish; RSI 77.6 overbought; Stochastic overbought; MACD buy; ADX buy; CCI buy; pivot $82.21; support $81.83-$82.02; resistance $82.40-$82.59; recent 4% drop Aug 4 to $77.11 on US-Iran news; recovered toward $80-$82 zone; key support $75 major zone; 200-day MA $78; key resistance $80; 50-day MA $82; Barchart Sep '26 $78.70; shorter-term MAs mixed; Stochastic/RSI neutral-to-bearish on very short timeframes; August 2026 ranges $61-$93; mid-$80s recovery later in year; EIA Brent $74 Q3; J.P. Morgan Brent $86 Q3, gradual decline year-end; prediction markets $75-$80 levels; overall bullish on MAs and aggregate indicators; overbought RSI and geopolitical volatility warrant caution. Gas: Aug 11 spot $2.77 (down 1%); Aug 3 spot $2.81; Jul average $2.89; recent closes Aug 7 $2.67, Aug 6 $2.63, Aug 5 $2.67, Aug 4 $2.69, Aug 3 $2.77; NGU26 $2.73-$2.78; EIA forecast $3.50-$3.67 full-year; ample storage and supply. EIA report: Aug 12 after 10:30 a.m. ET; week ending Aug 7; prior week ending July 31 crude inventories +2.479M barrels vs. -1.5M expected; stocks 407M barrels; Cushing OK +2.356M barrels; watch crude stocks, refinery utilization, gasoline/distillate inventories, imports; EIA discontinuing PDFs for new visualizations. Trade the charts. Respect the levels.

  8. Aug 11

    Strategic Positioning: Week 32

    Monday, August 11, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI Sep 2026 futures trading $77 to $78.18, up 0.89 or 1.15%. Day range $76.53-$78.77. Volume 206K. Oct 2026 around $76.10-$77.15. Brent reference $87.38/bbl. Technical: Overall Strong Buy driven by moving averages (Strong Buy on 10/12 signals); oscillators mixed/neutral to buy. MA5 values around $78.46-$78.59 showing buy signals. Elliott Wave: WTI plunged for a second week amid hopes of a deal to reopen the Hormuz Strait. Daily analysis: Downtrend with suggested sell level at $80 targeting $73. J.P. Morgan forecast: Brent expected to average $86/bbl in Q3 2026, $80 in Q4, $78 by year-end. Futures curve: Mild contango (Sep > Oct > later months declining toward ~$60s by 2030s). YTD performance: Sep 2026 contract +27% YTD, +21.7% over 1 year; +3% over 5 days, +5.4% over 1 month. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 3 spot $2.81/MMBtu (latest daily). Jul 31 spot $2.59/MMBtu. Jul 2026 monthly average $2.89/MMBtu. Near-term futures (NGU26) ~$2.67-$2.722 (as of Aug 8-9). Recent daily futures closes: Aug 7 ~$2.67; Aug 6 ~$2.63; Aug 5 ~$2.67; Aug 4 ~$2.69; Aug 3 ~$2.77. EIA forecast: Henry Hub spot expected to average close to $3.60-$3.67/MMBtu for full-year 2026. Market note: Ample supply and storage levels; futures testing multiyear lows as rollover looms. STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS: Tanker traffic only 5 transits in 24 hours ending Aug 5 (3 inbound, 2 outbound) — roughly 75% below pre-crisis daily average of 20+. Suspected attacks Aug 2: Two tankers (VLCC Egypt Prosperity and Aframax On Pride) reported incidents involving explosions; both escaped unscathed. Explosion reports Aug 5: Tanker reported two nearby explosions southeast of Kumzar, Oman; vessel and crew safe. Iran-Oman talks: Negotiating agreement on reopening strait; Iran published restrictive draft plan with conditions, bans on certain nations' ships, penalties. Broader traffic trends: 84 total transits Jul 27-Aug 2 (up from prior weeks but still far below normal); non-Iranian/Chinese-linked traffic limited. Insurance concerns: High war-risk insurance keeping most commercial tankers away; traffic dominated by Iranian- and Chinese-linked vessels. Expert view: Traffic could rise quickly with credible security deal but unlikely to return to pre-war highs (130-140 vessels daily) immediately. THE READ: Crude WTI Sep 2026 $77-$78.18, up 1.15%; Strong Buy technical; Elliott Wave plunge on Hormuz deal hopes; sell level $80 targeting $73; J.P. Morgan Brent $86 Q3, $80 Q4, $78 year-end; mild contango curve; YTD +27%. Gas Aug 3 spot $2.81; Jul average $2.89; NGU26 $2.67-$2.722; EIA forecast $3.60-$3.67 full-year; ample supply; multiyear lows. Hormuz 5 tanker transits in 24 hours, 75% below normal; suspected attacks Aug 2 and 5; Iran-Oman talks ongoing; 84 total transits Jul 27-Aug 2; war-risk insurance high; Iranian and Chinese vessels dominating; deal could accelerate traffic but not to pre-war levels immediately. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions. Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector. Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by Daily Dominance and utilizes artificial intelligence technology for content creation and production. The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Daily Dominance. All content is generated with the intent to provide informative and engaging material; however, the accuracy and reliability of the information presented may vary. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast. By listening to this podcast, you acknowledge and agree to these terms.

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