Noise Cancelling with Neil Woodford

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Noise Cancelling is the weekly podcast from W4.0, featuring Neil Woodford’s take on the real forces driving markets, long-term returns and investor behaviour. Each episode cuts through the noise — the headlines, predictions and hype — to focus on the signal that actually matters for investors. We explore: Neil Woodford’s investment thinking Global market trends and macro shifts Where investors are being distracted by noise How to interpret valuations, policy moves and sector cycles Big themes such as AI, technology, geopolitics and interest rates Whether you follow W4.0’s strategies or simply want clear, grounded market insight, Noise Cancelling helps you stay focused on the signal, not the noise.

  1. 6D AGO

    How Britain Broke Its Own Stock Market

    This week, Google raised $32 billion in debt in under 24 hours — including a billion-pound, 100-year sterling bond that was nearly ten times oversubscribed. The main buyers? UK pension funds and insurance companies. The same institutions that have almost entirely abandoned British equities are now queuing up to fund Google's AI ambitions for the next century. In the same week, the London Stock Exchange itself became an activist investor target, its shares down 35%, barely functioning as an exchange at all. In this episode, Neil and Jon trace the three regulatory decisions over 25 years that systematically broke the UK equity market — from pension accounting rules that forced the biggest owners to sell, to MiFID 2 destroying the research ecosystem that kept smaller companies alive, to the Brexit confidence shock that drove international investors out. The numbers are stark. UK pension funds owned 32% of the market in 1992. Today: 1.5%. London accounted for 18% of global IPOs at its peak. Today: effectively zero. The market has lost 44% of its listed companies. More money now leaves through dividends and buybacks than arrives through capital raising. But here's where it gets interesting. Neil argues that this two-decade wrecking ball has created a generational valuation opportunity. UK equities trade at 10-11x earnings against a US market at 25x. The historical relationship between starting valuations and subsequent returns — which holds with 75% accuracy over 50 years — predicts low double-digit annual returns from the UK over the next decade. The same relationship predicts the S&P 500 delivers pretty much zero.   Neil's articles referenced in this episode: 🔗 A Quarter Century of Damaging Reforms 🔗 Can the UK Equity Market Recover? ▶️ Is Now the Right Time to Buy UK Stocks?

    35 min

  2. FEB 6

    $1 Trillion Gone From Software Stocks. Here's What It Means For Your Pension

    $1 trillion wiped from software stocks in weeks. If you own a global tracker, S&P 500, or pension fund, you're probably exposed—here's what you need to know about the AI selloff and what to do next. In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down: Why Claude and AI coding tools are crushing software valuations How your pension is exposed to tech stocks (even if you never bought any) The Bank of England's rate decision—and why Neil thinks they got it wrong Bitcoin's 40% crash: buying opportunity or death spiral? Where Neil sees value when the S&P 500 looks stretched

    41 min

  3. JAN 30

    Why UK Investors Need to Rethink Dollar Exposure NOW

    Ray Dalio warns the monetary order is breaking down. Gold hits all-time highs. ASML & SK Hynix post record earnings. This week on Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down what it means for your strategy. We discuss whether the dollar is really dying, if gold and silver are in a bubble, and why the "picks and shovels" approach to AI investing is finally paying off. Plus: why UK equities remain dramatically undervalued, how to stress-test your investment strategy, and Warren Buffett's timeless advice on valuation. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. We're sharing how we think about markets. Always do your own research and consult a professional.

    32 min

  4. JAN 23

    How I'm Investing in 2026 (What If I'm Wrong?)

    Neil Woodford predicted Trump's second year would be calmer. But in January alone, Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, there's been talk of Greenland and Canada annexation, and Taiwan tensions continue to escalate – he was wrong. Yet his strategies still beat the market. What can we learn from Neil's way of thinking? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, we dig into the psychology of being wrong as an investor, when to hold your nerve vs pivot your strategy, and what could actually happen to your portfolio if geopolitical tensions escalate further in 2026. We cover: Why Neil's geopolitical predictions didn't play out The psychology of changing course vs staying the course How to know when you're wrong vs just early What happens if Trump actually moves on Greenland or Canada Taiwan, TSMC and the semiconductor risk Russia, Ukraine and the energy implications Middle East scenarios and oil price impacts

    54 min

  5. JAN 9

    103 Economists Are Wrong About The UK (Here's the Data)

    In December, Neil published his 2026 outlook, calling for 2% UK growth while the consensus predicted just 1%. This week, the FT polled 103 economists — two-thirds expect even MORE tax rises due to "persistently weak growth." Neil thinks they're wrong. Again. In this episode, we stress-test Neil's thesis against the consensus view. We cover: - Why the same economists who were wrong in 2025 are making the same mistakes again - The Venezuela shock — why oil DROPPED when everyone expected chaos - The AI "bubble" that isn't — it's a new arms race - The really undiscovered story about UK domestic stocks   📥 DOWNLOAD Neil's Full 2026 Outlook: https://www.w4pz.com/global-economic-outlook-2026/ 🎬 WATCH our 2026 Outlook Podcast: https://youtu.be/z-Vuk2qlk0s

    57 min

  6. 12/12/2025

    How to Build a Winning 2026 Investment Strategy

    Neil walks through his big calls for 2026: the AI industrial revolution, whether China is really “uninvestable”, why he thinks the EU is still a story of missed opportunities, the hidden fragilities in the US, and why he believes the consensus on the UK remains far too gloomy. We cover: How AI, energy and productivity could shape growth and markets in 2026 China’s outlook after years of pessimism and what investors might be missing Security, energy prices and regulation as structural headwinds for the EU The resilience and risks inside the US economy – and why he wouldn’t own the S&P 500 index Why UK shares may still be one of the most attractive opportunities globally In the second half, Neil explains how he’d actually construct a strategy for 2026 – by geography and by sector – including what he’d be underweight or avoid altogether.

    1 hr

  7. 12/05/2025

    Is the US financial system more fragile than it looks?

    US financial system fragility, private credit, Treasury basis trade, Japan’s BOJ and Bitcoin—Neil Woodford explains what could break next (and what probably won’t). Jon and Neil stress-test the popular “2007 again?” narrative and separate market panic from actual plumbing risks. Neil pushes back on the idea that today’s private credit story is a straight replay of subprime, arguing the parallels are overstated and that most of the market is conventional longer-term lending. We also cover: 💰 Leverage and market structure: where genuine fragility might sit if funding conditions tighten, and why leverage concentrated in financial-market plumbing matters more than headline doom narratives.   🇯🇵 Japan as the “quiet character”: why rising JGB yields and the yen carry trade may be less of a structural threat than many assume.   ₿ Crypto systemic risk vs bad investment: MicroStrategy, stablecoins, and why Neil differentiates between an ugly trade and a system-wide destabiliser.

    45 min

  8. 11/27/2025

    The Most Leaked Budget in History: But Will It Work?

    Rachel Reeves' second UK Budget as Chancellor might have been the most leaked Budget in history, but will her economic policy and change to taxes actually work? Neil Woodford and I discuss what she actually did, what she could have done and what the impact of her changes will be on the UK economy and the UK stockmarket.  If you're an investor in UK equities, this episode is for you. And if you'd like to see how Neil has set up his investment strategies post-Budget, we have a special offer for Noise Cancelling Podcast listeners. The first 50 people to sign up via the link below will receive 40% off their first subscription. Visit https://www.w4pz.com/podcast for more details and to join.

    40 min
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About

Noise Cancelling is the weekly podcast from W4.0, featuring Neil Woodford’s take on the real forces driving markets, long-term returns and investor behaviour. Each episode cuts through the noise — the headlines, predictions and hype — to focus on the signal that actually matters for investors. We explore: Neil Woodford’s investment thinking Global market trends and macro shifts Where investors are being distracted by noise How to interpret valuations, policy moves and sector cycles Big themes such as AI, technology, geopolitics and interest rates Whether you follow W4.0’s strategies or simply want clear, grounded market insight, Noise Cancelling helps you stay focused on the signal, not the noise.

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