Prediction Market Movers

Prediction News
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Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

  1. 5d ago

    Prediction Markets Meet Social Media | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Harshit Geddam, Head of Technology at OpinionKings, to discuss the company’s innovative approach to prediction markets. OpinionKings is connecting short-form social media content with existing prediction markets, allowing users to discover market ideas and trade without leaving the content experience. Geddam explains how OpinionKings is building around the creator economy, including creator credibility scores, premium content, subscriptions, and incentives for creators to bring their audiences into prediction markets. The goal is to turn creator expertise and market opinions into a new source of engagement and participation. The conversation also explores OpinionKings’ focus on non-sports prediction markets, including economics, crypto, politics, entertainment, weather, and climate. Geddam discusses why these markets can be difficult to discover, how creator-driven content could help generate liquidity, and why Opinion Kings sees itself as a complement to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket rather than a direct competitor. Chris and Harshit also discuss OpinionKings’ early user adoption, paper-trading results, plans for real-money trading, the role of Gen Z, and the company’s vision for bringing social media, creators, and prediction markets together. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Matching reels with the markets 3:45 - Credibility of content creator 7:05 - Filtering out personalities 8:35 - Why target the creator economy? 12:02 - “we treat creators as employees” 15:00 - User adoption of opinion kings 17:45 - Audience engagement with trading 19:50 - Competitor vs complimentary 22:45 - Any isolated feelings towards sports contracts? 26:20 - What’s next for OpinionKings? #PredictionMarkets #OpinionKings #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionNews #HarshitGeddam #CreatorEconomy #Fintech #SocialMedia #Trading #PredictionMarket #GenZ #Crypto #EventContracts

  2. Sep 4

    The CFTC’s Vision for Prediction Markets with Dorothy DeWitt | Prediction Market Movers

    Former CFTC official Dorothy DeWitt joins Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth look at the evolution of prediction markets, Kalshi’s early years, and the regulatory challenges shaping the industry today. DeWitt led the CFTC team that worked on Kalshi’s designation as a Designated Contract Market, giving her a unique perspective on how Kalshi navigated the regulatory process and what the CFTC was thinking about prediction markets in the early days. She explains the original pitch behind Kalshi, the challenges surrounding event contracts and self-certification, and how regulators approached an entirely new type of exchange. The conversation then turns to the biggest issues facing prediction markets in 2026, including CFTC regulation, prediction market guardrails, SEC-CFTC harmonization, and the classification of prediction market products. DeWitt also dives into arbitration and customer disputes, conflicts of interest, exchange rulebooks, market surveillance, and the importance of developing a taxonomy for prediction market contracts. DeWitt touches on why a well-designed taxonomy could help bring institutional liquidity into the industry while also giving regulators and exchanges better tools to monitor manipulation, insider trading, and other forms of market abuse. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Her CFTC days 3:30 Getting a DCM 5:20 - Adjusting to a new administration  8:10 - Differences in leadership 10:40 - priorities 12:20 - Legal landscape in the next administration 14:30 - Guard rails in prediction markets 17:35 - Why is vertical integration a hot topic? 19:50 - Solutions to conflicts of interests 21:40 - Disruptive perpetual contracts 24:50 - Swaps vs. futures 26:35 - A mature PM industry 29:20 - SEC and CFTC harmony 34:00 - On taxonomies #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #CFTC #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #Polymarket #EventContracts #PredictionMarket #FinancialMarkets #Regulation #Perpetuals #SEC #Trading #Fintech

  3. Sep 3

    What the Markets Say About the 2026 Midterms | Prediction Market Movers

    Former Kalshi Head of Politics Jaron Zhou joins Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers to discuss how political prediction markets work, how they complement polling, and what they can reveal about the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential cycle. Jaron breaks down the practical role of prediction markets in politics, including election forecasting, hedging political risk, campaign resource allocation, candidate electability, market calibration, and interpreting probabilities. The conversation also examines the 2026 Senate map, why the Senate has moved toward a closer race, the Texas Senate contest, progressive candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin, anti-incumbency within both parties, what "moderate" really means to voters, and how prediction markets can help identify emerging political trends. Chris and Jaron also look ahead to 2028, including generational change in the Democratic Party, the potential impact of Trump on Republican candidates, the future of progressive versus moderate politics, and emerging political issues such as AI and data centers. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.   For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com   00:00 - Intro 1:20 - How Jaron landed at Kalshi 3:20 - Misconceptions of Prediction Markets and polling 6:35 - Life after Kalshi 7:15 - Uses of political markets 11:35 - Identifying darkhorse candidates 13:20 - Using markets to interpret election results 16:30 - Can prediction Market data changed your perspective on elections? 19:30 -Senate is in play for dems 22:50 - Talarico’s christian platform 26:00 - Progressive victories in Wisconsin and Michigan 32:30 - What does moderate mean for a swing voter? 36:00 - What could a democrat offer to the presidency? #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #JaronZhou #Kalshi #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalMarkets #PredictionMarkets2026 #2028Election #PoliticalForecasting #ElectionOdds #PredictionNews #KalshiPolitics #ElectionPrediction

  4. Aug 19

    Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets Can Fix Bad Decisions | Prediction Market Movers

    On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Dr. Robin Hanson to explore where prediction markets came from, where they're headed, and how they could become a much more powerful tool for decision-making. Hanson revisits the early DARPA Policy Analysis Market controversy, explains the evolution of combinatorial prediction markets, and discusses why he believes organizations should eventually pay directly for the information prediction markets produce. The conversation shifts into prediction market accuracy, political market volatility, probability, market manipulation, and the backlash facing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains how traders should think about changing prices, why market participants need to ask what information they have that others don't, and how prediction markets could eventually move beyond simple yes-or-no contracts into conditional markets that estimate the consequences of different decisions. Hanson also lays out his long-term vision for decision markets—markets designed to help governments, companies, organizations, and individuals make better decisions. He discusses applications ranging from healthcare and education to corporate leadership and public policy, along with his research into the concept of the "sacred" and how ideas like sacred money could potentially make controversial prediction markets more acceptable. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com More about Dr. Robin Hanson: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson 00:00 - Intro 1:40 - Funding the original DARPA 4:30 - The use of trading technology 5:45 - Subsidizing markets 8:15 - Price movements 13:40 - Future of Polymakret and Kalshi 16:05 - Goal with prediction market 17:20 - Bad decisions 20:00 - Conditional Markets 22:00 - PM backlash 25:15 - Insider trading complaints 28:15 - Prediction Market polices on information 31:00 - Journalism and PMs coexisting 33:15 - Dr. Hanson's current research subjects 34:50 - “Money isn’t sacred” 37:40 - Differences between sacred money and real money 39:00 - Themes of the sacred #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #RobinHanson #Kalshi #Polymarket #Forecasting #PredictionMarkets #DecisionMarkets #PredictionNews #Politics #Trading #FutureOfMarkets

  5. Aug 12

    Melissa Footlick on the Next Generation of Traders | Prediction Market Movers

    What happens when proprietary trading meets prediction markets? Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Melissa Footlick, founder and CEO of Catalyst, to explain how prop trading works and why she believes the traditional model needs to change. Footlick breaks down evaluations, simulated-funded accounts, payouts, trading restrictions and the challenges traders face with complicated and constantly changing rules. They also discuss how Catalyst is taking a different approach, built around transparency, simplicity and objective rules. The conversation covers Catalyst's $10 starter account, its simulated $1,000 prediction market account, how traders can qualify for a $100 payout, and why the company chose Polymarket as its initial market platform. Catalyst is offering Prediction Market Makers & Prediction News subscribers a free $1,000 simulated account. Pass the challenge and earn $100. Use code PMMOVERS at checkout:https://www.tradecatalyst.com/ Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - What is prop trading? 5:40 - Restrictions for prop traders/firms 14:45 - Building Catalyst 18:30 - Walking through getting paid 22:00 - Where does the real cash come from? 23:00 - Customer feedback on Catalyst 27:30 Why build on PolyMarket? 29:20 - Different future options for Catalyst #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Catalyst #PropTrading #PredictionMarketTrading #Trading #Crypto #Kalshi #PredictionNews #FinTech #tradingeducation Guest: Melissa Footlick, Founder & CEO of Catalyst Host: Chris Gerlacher, Prediction News

  6. Aug 6

    Steve Ruddock Explains Why Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Test Yet | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with gaming industry analyst-consultant Steve Ruddock to examine how today's prediction markets compare to the early days of daily fantasy sports, online poker, and sports betting. They discuss the legal battles surrounding Kalshi and Polymarket, the role of the Supreme Court, and why history may provide a roadmap for where prediction markets are headed next. Steve also shares insights on the similarities between DFS and prediction markets, the influence of the American Gaming Association (AGA), responsible gaming debates, federal versus state regulation, and how companies like FanDuel are approaching prediction markets. The conversation also explores why messaging, lobbying, and regulatory strategy could determine the industry's future as much as the courtroom battles. Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - Early stage DFS compared to early stage prediction market 4:20 - DFS durability 7:00 - Legalities with gaming institutions 8:30 - Too big to fail argument 13:15 - Which companies can survive long term? 16:30 - Where prediction markets could fall in court 18:00 - How can PMs weather the mental health aspect of unhealthy gaming 21:30 - Is the gaming lobby misunderstood? 26:40 - What is the AGA’s focus right now? 30:30 - Scenarios for PM survivability #predictionmarkets #SteveRuddock #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #GamingIndustry #GamblingLaw #PredictionNews #DFS #CFTC #GamingRegulation #SportsContracts #DraftKings #fanduel Guest Steve Ruddock – Gaming journalist covering prediction markets, sports betting, online gaming regulation, and gambling policy. Check out Steve's work at https://straighttothepoint.substack.com/ Host Chris Gerlacher – Prediction News

  7. Jul 29

    Can SportsPredict Find the Next Generation of Traders? | Prediction Market Movers

    In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Steve Kuhn and Shani Raviv, the founders of Sports Predict, to discuss how forecasting competitions are being used to identify top quantitative talent for trading firms. They explain how Sports Predict evaluates forecasting ability through probability-based competitions and how consistent decision-making can be measured using Brier scores instead of traditional resumes or interviews. They also discuss the growing importance of forecasting in prediction markets, finance, and AI. Steve and Shani share why sports provide an ideal environment for measuring forecasting skill, how participants build statistical models to improve predictions, and why elite forecasters often outperform even leading AI models. They also explain how forecasting contests create a scalable way to discover talented traders from around the world and what makes prediction markets an effective testing ground for decision-making under uncertainty. Shani and Stve share Sports Predict's long-term vision, including future applications beyond sports, the role of AI in forecasting, partnerships with firms like Jump Trading, and how prediction markets could reshape hiring and talent identification across industries. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com SportsPredict https://sportspredict.com/ 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - On Talent identification 5:45 - How does SportsPredict work? 9:00 - The idea behind SportsPredict 13:32 - What has changed to level the playing field 15:00 - Partnership with Trade Jumpers 17:30 - Improvement with the program 19:45 - Credentialed traders 23:00 - What’s next for SportsPredict? 27:10 - How volatile is the leaderboard? 30:00- Sharing strategies #PredictionMarkets #SportsPredict #SteveKuhn #ShaniRaviv #PredictionMarketMovers #Forecasting #Superforecasting #QuantTrading #JumpTrading #SportsAnalytics #AI #Trading #PredictionNews

  8. Jul 22

    Seni Thomas of Edge Markets on Banking & Payment Rails | Prediction Market Movers

    How do professional prediction market traders move millions of dollars between exchanges, and why are traditional banks often unwilling to support them? In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Seni Thomas, founder of Edge Markets, to discuss the hidden infrastructure powering prediction markets. From banking challenges and real-time payments to capital efficiency and liquidity management, Seni explains why payment rails may be one of the biggest growth opportunities in the industry. Seni shares how Edge Markets is approaching real-time payments, capital constraints, fragmented liquidity, OTC block trading, and enterprise banking for trading firms. The conversation also explores the role of RTP and FedNow, the importance of market-making infrastructure, and how future NFA and FCM-related capabilities could affect the broader prediction market ecosystem. Chris and Seni also discuss the long-term outlook for the industry, including competition between exchanges, sportsbook operators entering the space, responsible gaming tools, and why Edge Markets believes prediction markets could become a multi-trillion-dollar industry.  👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com Edge Markets https://edgemarkets.io 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Problems that trading accounts have with traditional banks 6:15 - How has trading changed since arbitrage? 8:20 Solving combo pricing 12:30 - On large trades 13:55 - Why don’t traditional banks like trading? 17:50 - Qualifications for EDGE Markets 19:35 - Timeline on NFA membership 21:35 - EDGE Markets margins 22:35 - Early gaming features  27:00 - Traction with prediction markets 29:40 - Fragmentation in the markets 31:20- What anew exchange brings?   #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #EdgeMarkets #SeniThomas #Kalshi #Polymarket #Fintech #Banking #Payments #TradingInfrastructure

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Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

Information

  • Creator
    Prediction News
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    44
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Prediction News
  • Show Website
    Prediction Market Movers