The Event Horizon Podcast

Dustin Gouker
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A podcast about the nascent prediction markets industry, including news, analysis and legal insights at Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and beyond. Produced and hosted by Dustin Gouker. nexteventhorizon.substack.com

  1. 2h ago

    Episode 33: Prediction Markets And Hedging With Herrison’s Will Brooke

    I spoke with Will Brooke, the co-founder of the startup Herrison, about the future of hedging and insurance via prediction markets. From the company’s website: “We’re building Herisson because the tools that enable the world’s largest companies to hedge against one-off, event-driven risk should be accessible to companies of all sizes.” And as always, Daniel O’Boyle of InGame is here to break down all the latest news in prediction markets. Show notes: Kalshi volume and parlays + fees Texas messing with prediction markets Another loss for Kalshi in the Ninth Circuit This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

  2. 6d ago

    Episode 32: Talking Prediction Market Enforcement With Kalshi’s Robert DeNault

    Kalshi Head of Enforcement Robert DeNault joined me to talk about how investigations and enforcement work in prediction markets. Danieli O’Boyle of InGame returns to break down all the latest news in prediction markets, including a deluge of advertising deals. Show notes: Kalshi on recent enforcement actions Novig and Sydney Sweeney DraftKings ads directly referring to Kalshi Sports is still pretty big! NFL letter to prediction markets If you trade on sports and event exchanges, you need EDGE Boost — the financial platform built specifically for players. Sign up and you get an EDGE Boost Visa® debit card, physical and digital with no monthly or yearly usage fees. Access your funds outside banking hours with Instant Deposits 24/7/365. Daily Deposit Limits Up To $5M per transaction, and up to $50M per day, giving you easier/faster access to YOUR capital, subject to eligibility and account review. Plus earn up to 0.5% cashback on eligible deposits. Head to edgeboost.io and use promo code HORIZON to get a $100 deposit match on your first $100. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

  3. Sep 8

    Episode 31: News With Front Office Sports’ Ben Horney; Data With Grandstand’s Matt Restivo

    Ben Horney of Front Office Sports stopped by to talk about recent developments in prediction markets. And Matt Restivo — SVP of Sports Data Services at Grandstand — chatted about data in PMs and the Optic Odds product. Show notes: New Jersey appeals to SCOTUS. Kalshi gets US Open deal. Injury markets. Kalshi bans George Santos. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

  4. Sep 1

    Episode 30: Is Prediction Markets Vs. States Coming To SCOTUS?

    The Ninth Circuit delivered bad news to Kalshi on Friday, as the prediction market company lost its appeal to Nevada. Where does the legal battle for prediction markets go from here? The US Supreme Court is definitely in play. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that news and everything else that happened last week in prediction markets. Show notes and more reporting/context on the decision: -Event Horizon -InGame -Nevada reacts: ““We are pleased with the Ninth Circuit’s ruling today in favor of Nevada. This completely vindicates what we have been saying all along. This is sports betting and needs to be properly regulated by the state. The Nevada Gaming Control Board has been regulating gaming in the state of Nevada for more than 70 years in accordance with the highest standards and best practices. We will continue to vigorously enforce Nevada law to safeguard gaming in our state,” stated Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer.“Prediction markets offering sports-event contracts constitute gambling and must comply with Nevada’s gaming laws and regulatory framework. I commend Chairman Dreitzer and the Nevada Gaming Control Board for their diligent work to uphold Nevada’s longstanding regulatory standards, safeguard the integrity of our gaming industry, and ensure the public can continue to have confidence in its oversight,” said Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo. The rest: -Clash Between Prediction Markets and States Sets Off a Furious Political Battle (New York Times): “In early March, Donald Trump Jr. made a pitch to a crowd of Republican state attorneys general who had gathered for a three-day retreat at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in New Orleans. …”“Sitting onstage for a question-and-answer session with Montana’s attorney general, Mr. Trump suggested that state leaders were being led astray by a ‘vested interest’ — gambling firms that wanted to protect their ‘monopolies’ by attacking prediction markets, four people familiar with his remarks said. In reality, he said, the markets already had robust oversight, describing them as a sophisticated financial tool overseen by federal officials, not state attorneys general.” -CFTC Orders Gabriel Perez to Pay $172,000 for Insider Trading of Mention Market Event Contracts (press release): The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today announced an order filing and settling charges against Gabriel Perez for misappropriating material, nonpublic information obtained through his federal government employment in order to trade event contracts (i.e., swaps) on a prediction market platform for his personal benefit.Under the order, Perez must disgorge the profits he made from his unlawful trading totaling $107,539.02 and pay a civil monetary penalty of $65,000, representing a substantial discount under the Division of Enforcement’s new cooperation advisory because of Perez’s exemplary cooperation with the CFTC. -LSU Football Coach Kiffin’s Bonuses Hedged Using $3 Million Kalshi Trades Placed By Outside Firm (InGame): “A third party helping Louisiana State University hedge against potential bonus payments to football coach Lane Kiffin used bets on the team’s performance on Kalshi to offset exposure. Similar trades were placed last month on South Carolina’s football team, again from a third party rather than the university, though the exact risk being hedged for those trades is less clear. Two weeks ago, five ‘block’ trades — trades negotiated off exchange — were placed on LSU to have a successful college football season, worth a combined $3 million.” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

  5. Aug 24

    Episode 29: Innovation-Maxxing At The CFTC

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission got a bunch of important people in prediction markets together for a meeting in Washington, DC. Did we learn anything? Why were people yelling at each other? What happens next? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down that meeting, and all the recent news in prediction markets. Subscribe now Show notes: The CFTC meeting A Republican problem for prediction markets? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

  6. Aug 17

    Episode 28: Prediction Market Policy With Aaron Klein Of The Brookings Institution

    The Brookings Institution’s Aaron Klein stopped by to talk about all things prediction markets (starts at the 47-minute mark). He is a senior fellow at Brookings’ Center on Regulation and Markets and worked on the Dodd-Frank Act. Klein has led a pair of events about prediction markets hosted by Brookings: Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I also break down all the recent news in prediction markets, including a lot of news around stuff other than sports event contracts! Show notes: FlightAware vs. Kalshi Sports mention markets Hedging on goat herding! A crazy Wisconsin primary Novig responsible trading The CFTC was busy: An emergency order Reining in incentives program American odds go bye-bye? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

  7. Aug 10

    Episode 27: Interview With ProphetX Co-Founder Jake Benzaquen

    There are endless stories and hot takes about people betting on wildfires…even though no one is actually offering markets on fires. And there are lots of people yelling about betting on drug trials. What exactly is going on? Daniel O’Boyle of InGame breaks that down and all the recent news in prediction markets. To wit, prediction markets on drug trials made NPR’s All Things Considered: Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as ‘ghastly’: “‘What seemed to be missed in the CEO statements was the fact that there were going to be patients on the other side of these bets,’ said Pederson, who is a humanities professor at Boston University.” “Bettors will make or lose money based on the success or failure of a clinical trial, a situation Pederson views as horrific.” I also sat down with ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen (36-minute mark) to talk about the company’s journey to becoming a federally regulated exchange. Show notes: Wildfire betting: https://www.merkley.senate.gov/merkley-padilla-shaheen-schiff-rosen-cortez-masto-heinrich-wyden-klobuchar-cftc-must-rein-in-wildfire-bets-on-prediction-markets/ Betting on drug trials: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/28/business/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-market-drugs.html DraftKings Q2: https://www.ingame.com/overlap-draftkings-sportsbook-kalshi-users/ Flutter Q2: https://www.ingame.com/fanduel-flutter-earnings-call-dcm-exchange/ Polymarket + Yankees: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-becomes-an-official-prediction-market-partner-of-the-new-york-yankees-302844285.html Elections + PMs: Michigan Senate Primary Shows Kalshi, Polymarket Better Be Careful About Calling Races In November This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

  8. Aug 3

    Episode 26: Stakes Are High For Prediction Markets As Court Battles Intensify

    It was a busy week in court for prediction markets, from a big lawsuit from the New York attorney general to a win for Kalshi in Minnesota. Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and Dustin Gouker break down all the important news on the legal front and beyond in this week’s Event Horizon podcast. Show notes: Legal stuff, from InGame: New York Sues Kalshi In State Court, Asks For $36 Billion Fine Sixth Circuit Judge To Kalshi: What’s So Bad About Being Regulated By States? Prediction Markets Still Legal In Minnesota, But Kalshi At Risk Of New York Ban Nevada Says It ‘Shut Down’ Kalshi’s Sports Business, As Prediction Market Agrees To Use Third-Party Geofence The rest: News: IG Group To Acquire Underdog In Deal Worth Up To $1.3 Billion Meet the Mets’ Prediction-Market Pick: Novig Three Things We Learned About Robinhood And Prediction Markets During Q2 Earnings Taking Stock Of The Prediction Markets Rules Comments: CME Raises (Many) Questions, Kalshi Urges Adoptions, And Dodd Speaks This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com

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About

A podcast about the nascent prediction markets industry, including news, analysis and legal insights at Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and beyond. Produced and hosted by Dustin Gouker. nexteventhorizon.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Dustin Gouker
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    33
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Dustin Gouker
  • Show Website
    The Event Horizon Podcast

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